GimmeDattt Wildcard Playoff Round

[GimmeDattt]

Vikings +3 (3 Units)

A write-up is pointless because it will just spark an endless string of argument. If you want to disagree I will state my reasons.

Gl this weekend guys.

 

[GimmeDattt]

Also will add 2 units to Colts at a Pk

Colts -1 (4 Units)
Colts Pk (2 Units)
Cards Pk (4 Units)
Dolphins ML +173 (2 Units)
Vikings +3 (3 Units)

 

[PICKAPEPPA]

Your write ups are ridiculous. Turner struggled versus good run defenses period. It had nothing to do with being at home or on the road. As for Arizona having a good run defense, that's wrong. They have an average one. You can't just throw a game out and say 'well look what happens when we throw out the worst game statistically! They are good!' Yeah, no kidding. It's hilarious that you throw out a game where Arizona is run all over but then go ahead and mention two games where Arizona did very well against the run but you don't throw those out? Right....

As for Matt Ryan, rookie or not, he was one of the best QBs in the league. He and the o-line allowed Turner to have success NOT vice versa. To say he isn't because he never had x amount of completions or touchdowns in a game is wrong because he never had to. That wasn't Atlanta's offensive game plan, and rightly so. But Ryan is CERTAINLY more than a game manager.

I'm not even sure where to start with your Ind@SD analysis it's so bad. First of all, you mention at least twice how San Diego is the public favorite and everyone is all over them. Interesting because I see over 75% of bettors on Indy. Are you sure you weren't typing SD when you meant IND and vice versa?

You mention Indy has a great offense. SD's is better. You mention Indy has a good pass defense, which is not true; it's average and only a little better than SD's. Talk about cherry picking stats. I pity any capper who relies on YPG to mean anything. You talk shit on yards per play, which is EONS better than YPG. Even better! So lets see, yes Indy doesn't allow many yards per game but hmmmm maybe I can dig a little deeper and not allow a blanket to be pulled over my eyes:

Indy allows a 68.4% comp. against; SD 67.9% against
Indy allows 6.7 yds/att; SD 6.8 yds/att
Indy allows a 34.3 1st down%; SD allows a 35.2 1st down%
Indy allowed 33 pass plays of 20 or more yards; SD allowed 37

The big difference comes from a very flawed stat, QB rating against. Indy allowed a 78 QB rating while SD a 90.3. Why the big difference despite similar numbers in most categories? Well that's why the stat is flawed; teams chose to run in the red zone versus Indy while they passed versus SD so SD ended up giving up a lot more TDs through the air.

Now I must say, it is very obvious you don't watch the Chargers often and never have. You call LT soft based on an extremely small sample size. You say 'if the Chargers are forced to throw.' Newsflash buddy, the Chargers are a passing team now. No one forces them to throw they force their passing attack on you. This is no longer a running team; the offense is predicated through Rivers/Jackson/Chambers/Gates. And I must say Jackson or Chambers versus Indy's TINY cornerbacks spells big danger for Indy. This statement right here: 'The Chargers want to run and then beat you with a deep ball when you put 8 in the box' confirms that you don't know what the Chargers are about.

And one last thing: 'The Colts finished the year 6th vs the pass which is impressive if you consider the caliber of teams they played this year.' Yes, lets go over this impressive list of opponents: Houston(2x), GB, SD, NE, CHI, MIN, JAX(2x), Ten(2x), Balt, Pit, Cle, Cin, and Det. That's two top ten passing offenses (SD and Hou), two slightly above average passing offenses (GB and Jax), four average to below average passing offenses (NE, Ten, Balt, and Pit) and five bottom ten passing offenses (the rest).

I didn't even bother reading the Baltimore write-up.

 

[GimmeDattt]

Your write ups are ridiculous. Turner struggled versus good run defenses period. It had nothing to do with being at home or on the road. As for Arizona having a good run defense, that's wrong. They have an average one. You can't just throw a game out and say 'well look what happens when we throw out the worst game statistically! They are good!' Yeah, no kidding. It's hilarious that you throw out a game where Arizona is run all over but then go ahead and mention two games where Arizona did very well against the run but you don't throw those out? Right....

As for Matt Ryan, rookie or not, he was one of the best QBs in the league. He and the o-line allowed Turner to have success NOT vice versa. To say he isn't because he never had x amount of completions or touchdowns in a game is wrong because he never had to. That wasn't Atlanta's offensive game plan, and rightly so. But Ryan is CERTAINLY more than a game manager.

I'm not even sure where to start with your Ind@SD analysis it's so bad. First of all, you mention at least twice how San Diego is the public favorite and everyone is all over them. Interesting because I see over 75% of bettors on Indy. Are you sure you weren't typing SD when you meant IND and vice versa?

You mention Indy has a great offense. SD's is better. You mention Indy has a good pass defense, which is not true; it's average and only a little better than SD's. Talk about cherry picking stats. I pity any capper who relies on YPG to mean anything. You talk shit on yards per play, which is EONS better than YPG. Even better! So lets see, yes Indy doesn't allow many yards per game but hmmmm maybe I can dig a little deeper and not allow a blanket to be pulled over my eyes:

Indy allows a 68.4% comp. against; SD 67.9% against
Indy allows 6.7 yds/att; SD 6.8 yds/att
Indy allows a 34.3 1st down%; SD allows a 35.2 1st down%
Indy allowed 33 pass plays of 20 or more yards; SD allowed 37

The big difference comes from a very flawed stat, QB rating against. Indy allowed a 78 QB rating while SD a 90.3. Why the big difference despite similar numbers in most categories? Well that's why the stat is flawed; teams chose to run in the red zone versus Indy while they passed versus SD so SD ended up giving up a lot more TDs through the air.

Now I must say, it is very obvious you don't watch the Chargers often and never have. You call LT soft based on an extremely small sample size. You say 'if the Chargers are forced to throw.' Newsflash buddy, the Chargers are a passing team now. No one forces them to throw they force their passing attack on you. This is no longer a running team; the offense is predicated through Rivers/Jackson/Chambers/Gates. And I must say Jackson or Chambers versus Indy's TINY cornerbacks spells big danger for Indy. This statement right here: 'The Chargers want to run and then beat you with a deep ball when you put 8 in the box' confirms that you don't know what the Chargers are about.

And one last thing: 'The Colts finished the year 6th vs the pass which is impressive if you consider the caliber of teams they played this year.' Yes, lets go over this impressive list of opponents: Houston(2x), GB, SD, NE, CHI, MIN, JAX(2x), Ten(2x), Balt, Pit, Cle, Cin, and Det. That's two top ten passing offenses (SD and Hou), two slightly above average passing offenses (GB and Jax), four average to below average passing offenses (NE, Ten, Balt, and Pit) and five bottom ten passing offenses (the rest).

I didn't even bother reading the Baltimore write-up.

My point with Mike Turner wasn't his overall numbers. My point in taking out his biggest run was to show you what he manages to do if he doesn't break a big one. Note that none of those runs were touchdowns. I think a 17 yard run that inflates his stats should be noted and consider what he did without that run. Don't you want to know if a guy struggles but can break one big one to inflate his stats?

As for Matt Ryan being one of the best in the league you are absolutley wrong. Yes, he won games, he didnt look like a rookie but all he did was manage the game. He didn't have big throwing days he can't win a game against a playoff defense by himself even if it is the Cardinals. The Cardinals at home are giving up a little over 95 ypg on the ground and held the Giants to 84 yards.

Matt Ryan 16 Td's and 11 Int's. Let me tell you that sounds like a game manager to me. Throwing for 215 yards per game? Well what the fuck? If thats not a game manager then I don't know what is.

To say LDT isn't soft is ridiculous. The guy has been pulling himself out since late last season. He pulled himself out against the Colts, the Broncos. The guy is soft. He ran hard the past 2 games for the first times all season. LDT struggled and THATS why they are a passing team now. They would hand it to LDT every play if he would run like he did back 2-3 years ago.

Listen to sum all this up. You can go through all these crazy stats like 1st down passing % and all that bullshit but what it comes down to is I win in all my sports. CBB, NFL, CFB, and MLB. I cap based on what I see and what I think will happen when the matchups play out on the field. Just down come in here and pull this shit with me trying to call me out on these little subjective things.

To sum it up, I don't like your attitude or the way you handle yourself. Fuck you.

Come in on Monday and rub it in if I lose. Until then shut the fuck up.

 

[GimmeDattt]

BTW Just saw your from SD. No wonder you think LDT is a tough, hard runner.

 

[PICKAPEPPA]

'My point with Mike Turner wasn't his overall numbers. My point in taking out his biggest run was to show you what he manages to do if he doesn't break a big one. Note that none of those runs were touchdowns. I think a 17 yard run that inflates his stats should be noted and consider what he did without that run. Don't you want to know if a guy struggles but can break one big one to inflate his stats?'

You are failing to understand that is how 99% of running backs perform in the league. If you did what you just did to pretty much every other RB in the NFL you would get the same result. You can't just start taking out huge runs to prove a point because those huge runs are what make or break most days for a running back. It's very rare post-Edgerrin James to find a RB that doesn't break a big run but is consistently gaining 4-8 yard chunks every run, every game.

'As for Matt Ryan being one of the best in the league you are absolutley wrong. Yes, he won games, he didnt look like a rookie but all he did was manage the game. He didn't have big throwing days he can't win a game against a playoff defense by himself even if it is the Cardinals. The Cardinals at home are giving up a little over 95 ypg on the ground and held the Giants to 84 yards.

Matt Ryan 16 Td's and 11 Int's. Let me tell you that sounds like a game manager to me. Throwing for 215 yards per game? Well what the fuck? If thats not a game manager then I don't know what is.'

Once again you are looking at the wrong stats. Probably the single most important conventional stat when looking at a QB is YPA, and Ryan's 7.9 was better than all but three QBs in the league. Despite having only the 18th most attempts in the league he was tied for the eighth most 20+ yard passing plays. I could go on, but anyone who has watched Ryan and knows something about the NFL past YPG stats knows Ryan is already a star QB in this league.

'To say LDT isn't soft is ridiculous. The guy has been pulling himself out since late last season. He pulled himself out against the Colts, the Broncos. The guy is soft. He ran hard the past 2 games for the first times all season. LDT struggled and THATS why they are a passing team now. They would hand it to LDT every play if he would run like he did back 2-3 years ago.'

You are making so many assumptions. Before the past couple years LT has been injury free and in on almost every snap for the Chargers. Over the first eight years of his career he piled up more touches than anyone else in the league all while being the defenses' main focus. Maybe, now that he's suddenly taking himself out, we can believe he's actually injured and SHOULD be coming out? Do you understand how asinine it would be to call someone soft because he's injured and supposed to be resting every couple of plays, as per team orders? We just don't know, but you choose to assume LT isn't very injured and is simply soft. I've watched LT his whole career and call it homer-colored glasses but I know the guy has been anything but soft over his career.

Not giving the ball to LT as much is just logic. It has nothing to do with him being 'soft,' I *think* it might have to do with him finally having injuries and wearing down after a long, active career. Something about running backs wearing down around age 30... But no, hey, your 'soft' theory is so much more realistic and backed up by evidence. Who ever heard of a RB naturally breaking down after so many years? And why would a team with Rivers/Jackson/Gates/Chambers start to pass more?! What are they thinking!??!

'Listen to sum all this up. You can go through all these crazy stats like 1st down passing % and all that bullshit but what it comes down to is I win in all my sports. CBB, NFL, CFB, and MLB. I cap based on what I see and what I think will happen when the matchups play out on the field. Just down come in here and pull this shit with me trying to call me out on these little subjective things.

To sum it up, I don't like your attitude or the way you handle yourself. Fuck you.

Come in on Monday and rub it in if I lose. Until then shut the fuck up.'

No to sum it up I called you out on using bullshit, useless statistics, and expectedly you avoided every single argument I brought up about the games, conveniently dismissing them as 'subjective little things.' Lol what does that even mean? If you have no retort that's fine but just man up and admit that, don't stumble around with excuses and personal attacks.

I don't need to rub anything in because win or lose I know everything I've posted here was right and made what you said look retarded.

 

[GimmeDattt]

'My point with Mike Turner wasn't his overall numbers. My point in taking out his biggest run was to show you what he manages to do if he doesn't break a big one. Note that none of those runs were touchdowns. I think a 17 yard run that inflates his stats should be noted and consider what he did without that run. Don't you want to know if a guy struggles but can break one big one to inflate his stats?'

You are failing to understand that is how 99% of running backs perform in the league. If you did what you just did to pretty much every other RB in the NFL you would get the same result. You can't just start taking out huge runs to prove a point because those huge runs are what make or break most days for a running back. It's very rare post-Edgerrin James to find a RB that doesn't break a big run but is consistently gaining 4-8 yard chunks every run, every game.

The point is I am taking ONE non-TD run out of his stats and he is dog shit. The 1 run will not make a difference. Really 99% of RB's have only big homeruns inflating thier stats? Try Brandon Jacobs, Clinton Portis, Thomas Jones, Matt Forte, Ryan Grant just off the top of my head. Obviously they won't gain the chunks every game. It would be the best season ever. But if you take one run out of every one of his road games they are all shit. I can do that with 20 other running backs in the league and they will have better #'s then Turner.

 

[PICKAPEPPA]

We're not even arguing different things. I agree that Turner is overrated but it's better to point at his lack of success versus good run defenses rather than picking and choosing which of Turner's runs should matter.

And I must ask. If you agree that Turner is overrated, but think that Ryan is merely a game manager, how did Atlanta do so well on offense? Think about all the touchdowns Turner got that could have easily gone to Ryan instead. Imagine Ryan with 26 TDs instead 16; that could have easily happened. It's the same situation as the Indy passer rating against versus San Diego passer rating against I mentioned earlier.

 

[GimmeDattt]

'As for Matt Ryan being one of the best in the league you are absolutley wrong. Yes, he won games, he didnt look like a rookie but all he did was manage the game. He didn't have big throwing days he can't win a game against a playoff defense by himself even if it is the Cardinals. The Cardinals at home are giving up a little over 95 ypg on the ground and held the Giants to 84 yards.

Matt Ryan 16 Td's and 11 Int's. Let me tell you that sounds like a game manager to me. Throwing for 215 yards per game? Well what the fuck? If thats not a game manager then I don't know what is.'

Once again you are looking at the wrong stats. Probably the single most important conventional stat when looking at a QB is YPA, and Ryan's 7.9 was better than all but three QBs in the league. Despite having only the 18th most attempts in the league he was tied for the eighth most 20+ yard passing plays. I could go on, but anyone who has watched Ryan and knows something about the NFL past YPG stats knows Ryan is already a star QB in this league.

Yes, this is exactly what I said no? I said he hits almost 1 HUGE play per game. Ahh what was that you said. 18th in attempts....hmmmmmmm

Game Manager=QB who does not have to drop back and throw 30 times and for 300 yards. QB who can hand it off to RB and make the nessecary throws to win games.

Ryan is a star in whose mind? He is 11-5 as a starter. Good for him. He hasn't proved he can run a 2 minute drill yet and hasn't proved he can win a big game yet.

Oh and wait lets do this for you. He is not a game manager? Ok. Well take out his long throw of the game that he has inflating his stats and see what he does for the majority of the game. Why am I taking out his long pass? Because it is one fucking play. Also not to mention Matt Ryan has the 8th lowest Att/G in the NFL. Game manager? I think so.

 

[GimmeDattt]

We're not even arguing different things. I agree that Turner is overrated but it's better to point at his lack of success versus good run defenses rather than picking and choosing which of Turner's runs should matter.

And I must ask. If you agree that Turner is overrated, but think that Ryan is merely a game manager, how did Atlanta do so well on offense? Think about all the touchdowns Turner got that could have easily gone to Ryan instead. Imagine Ryan with 26 TDs instead 16; that could have easily happened. It's the same situation as the Indy passer rating against versus San Diego passer rating against I mentioned earlier.

The reason I took out the big run was because I want to see what he does on a down to down basis without the inflation that the big play has on the numbers. Atlanta did well on offense because they played well at home. Ryan and Turner both did shit on the road but played well at home.

 

[GimmeDattt]

You are making so many assumptions. Before the past couple years LT has been injury free and in on almost every snap for the Chargers. Over the first eight years of his career he piled up more touches than anyone else in the league all while being the defenses' main focus. Maybe, now that he's suddenly taking himself out, we can believe he's actually injured and SHOULD be coming out? Do you understand how asinine it would be to call someone soft because he's injured and supposed to be resting every couple of plays, as per team orders? We just don't know, but you choose to assume LT isn't very injured and is simply soft. I've watched LT his whole career and call it homer-colored glasses but I know the guy has been anything but soft over his career.

I NEVER said LT was soft over his career. I said the past two years he has played soft. He has been running out of bounds and taking himself out. I watched the Colts game...no one told him to go out. He tapped his helmet and ran off the field. Maybe he is hurt...but he is still not running hard. It's not a knock on him. Thats what happens when you put the miles on. But I feel like that is why his numbers have dipped. He is just an elusive back now rather then being able to be physical as well. Early in his career the guy was the TOTAL package. Inside/outside/run/pass everything he could do it.

 

[PICKAPEPPA]

I knew you would bring up att/g. Truly great quarterbacks are efficient and don't need to chuck up the ball 35 times a game to win. Would you consider Rivers a game manager? He only averaged 2.8 more attempts per game than Ryan. Again, Ryan was EXTREMELY efficient. When you average the fourth most yards per attempt (ahead of guys like Manning, Romo, Warner, etc...) you don't need to throw a lot.

I would call Favre the opposite of a game manager. Ryan managed to average the same number of passing yards despite 5.5 less attempts per game as him. Call Ryan what you want but he was one of the most efficient QBs in the league and did everything that was asked of him.

 

[GimmeDattt]

I knew you would bring up att/g. Truly great quarterbacks are efficient and don't need to chuck up the ball 35 times a game to win. Would you consider Rivers a game manager? He only averaged 2.8 more attempts per game than Ryan. Again, Ryan was EXTREMELY efficient. When you average the fourth most yards per attempt (ahead of guys like Manning, Romo, Warner, etc...) you don't need to throw a lot.

I would call Favre the opposite of a game manager. Ryan managed to average the same number of passing yards despite 5.5 less attempts per game as him. Call Ryan what you want but he was one of the most efficient QBs in the league and did everything that was asked of him.

Your wrong. I disagree. I think ryan is a game manager. I think lt is soft. This is going nowhere. Im going to sleep leave me alone.

 

[PICKAPEPPA]

'Atlanta did well on offense because they played well at home'

Yeah that's just about every offense in the league. Turner is overrated. He averaged 2.5 ypc in the red zone. That's putrid. Because of Atlanta's offensive philosophy, Turner received the opportunities for the TDs. The touchdowns and corresponding yards could have just as easily been Ryans. Imagine his numbers with even seven more touchdowns.... and it's not a stretch to do that. Atlanta would have been better off throwing more than running in the red zone (of course this is all hindsight because it was hard to predict Ryan's amazing success) and that just furthers the argument that Ryan was more than a game manager this year. Just like the easy way out was to vote Manning MVP, it's the easy way out (and an injustice to Ryan's season) to just say Ryan managed/didn't lose games for Atlanta. He did SO much more.

 

[PICKAPEPPA]

Your wrong. I disagree. I think ryan is a game manager. I think lt is soft. This is going nowhere. Im going to sleep leave me alone.

Mmmmm yes. I picture a kid closing his eyes, sticking his fingers in his ears and yelling LA LA LA. Backed into a corner maybe if you just close your eyes and hope real hard it'll all go away...

Please bro tell me. I can anticipate every argument from you. Ryan is a game manager because of his low attempts per game (completely ignoring EVERYTHING I've said about YPA) yet when I point out Rivers barely averaged more and that Ryan put up MUCH better numbers than 'gunslinger' Favre all you can say is 'I'm going to sleep go away.'

 

[BearEssentials]

Your write ups are ridiculous. Turner struggled versus good run defenses period. It had nothing to do with being at home or on the road. As for Arizona having a good run defense, that's wrong. They have an average one. You can't just throw a game out and say 'well look what happens when we throw out the worst game statistically! They are good!' Yeah, no kidding. It's hilarious that you throw out a game where Arizona is run all over but then go ahead and mention two games where Arizona did very well against the run but you don't throw those out? Right....

As for Matt Ryan, rookie or not, he was one of the best QBs in the league. He and the o-line allowed Turner to have success NOT vice versa. To say he isn't because he never had x amount of completions or touchdowns in a game is wrong because he never had to. That wasn't Atlanta's offensive game plan, and rightly so. But Ryan is CERTAINLY more than a game manager.

I'm not even sure where to start with your Ind@SD analysis it's so bad. First of all, you mention at least twice how San Diego is the public favorite and everyone is all over them. Interesting because I see over 75% of bettors on Indy. Are you sure you weren't typing SD when you meant IND and vice versa?

You mention Indy has a great offense. SD's is better. You mention Indy has a good pass defense, which is not true; it's average and only a little better than SD's. Talk about cherry picking stats. I pity any capper who relies on YPG to mean anything. You talk shit on yards per play, which is EONS better than YPG. Even better! So lets see, yes Indy doesn't allow many yards per game but hmmmm maybe I can dig a little deeper and not allow a blanket to be pulled over my eyes:

Indy allows a 68.4% comp. against; SD 67.9% against
Indy allows 6.7 yds/att; SD 6.8 yds/att
Indy allows a 34.3 1st down%; SD allows a 35.2 1st down%
Indy allowed 33 pass plays of 20 or more yards; SD allowed 37

The big difference comes from a very flawed stat, QB rating against. Indy allowed a 78 QB rating while SD a 90.3. Why the big difference despite similar numbers in most categories? Well that's why the stat is flawed; teams chose to run in the red zone versus Indy while they passed versus SD so SD ended up giving up a lot more TDs through the air.

Now I must say, it is very obvious you don't watch the Chargers often and never have. You call LT soft based on an extremely small sample size. You say 'if the Chargers are forced to throw.' Newsflash buddy, the Chargers are a passing team now. No one forces them to throw they force their passing attack on you. This is no longer a running team; the offense is predicated through Rivers/Jackson/Chambers/Gates. And I must say Jackson or Chambers versus Indy's TINY cornerbacks spells big danger for Indy. This statement right here: 'The Chargers want to run and then beat you with a deep ball when you put 8 in the box' confirms that you don't know what the Chargers are about.

And one last thing: 'The Colts finished the year 6th vs the pass which is impressive if you consider the caliber of teams they played this year.' Yes, lets go over this impressive list of opponents: Houston(2x), GB, SD, NE, CHI, MIN, JAX(2x), Ten(2x), Balt, Pit, Cle, Cin, and Det. That's two top ten passing offenses (SD and Hou), two slightly above average passing offenses (GB and Jax), four average to below average passing offenses (NE, Ten, Balt, and Pit) and five bottom ten passing offenses (the rest).

I didn't even bother reading the Baltimore write-up.

I have been on this site for over 2 years and when I see clowns like Pickapeppa posting crap like this it is almost always based on emotion and not fact. This post makes the Arizona and Indy play even stronger in my book because it represents what the emotional public is thinking and most likely how they are betting.

GL - Bear

 

[MaxxdoutEK9]

Hey man, Jersey here too. I wish us the best of luck. GD, i am with you all three bets. I have been saying this for the past week that Indy is plain better than SD. I also think that despite all the stats, the revenge factor from last year and that Manning just won the MVP is going to fuel them. At any rate, good luck to us.

 

[citylinesports]

Thank you for your write-ups, they are thought provoking.
Any concerns with the Indy O-line?
I believe they are starting their 3rd string guard.

 

[desi]

good luck gimmedatt. alotta people here
just cannot let a guy post and wish him
luck. it's so simple to do yet most of
the kids here just don't understand that.
anyway, hope you win some cash today
all around. :toast:

 

[tbonestk]

PICKAPEPPA, it's nice to debate a point but it's rude to come into someone's thread and ARGUE with an attitude. Not cool. Why don't you agree to disagree and create your own thread, your own writeup and leave this alone.

Gimme spent a lot of effort on the analysis, just don't want this thread to end up being an argument between you two going back and forth then ends up in the rubber room.

BOL today Gimme! :toast: