daringly said:
disagree strongly
although I can't say i got very far. The first 80 pages or so totally ruined any credibility for him
like when he claims you have to be able to hit 60% or better on your bets for it to be worth it
Totally downplays the value of line shopping by saying "if it's going to be that close you shouldn't be betting it"
Also recommends a "3 unit bankroll" at one point
Are there nuggets buried in there? Maybe. But doubt I ever get that far.
He has little concept of how sports gambling really works, IMO.
Definitely do not recommend reading this, it can give you some very bad habits if you are just starting off.
PHP:
disagree strongly........
Totally downplays the value of line shopping by saying "if it's going to be that close you shouldn't be betting it"Have to disagree with drunkguy here and agree with the author.
I can't go into specifics because it would be giving away a handicapping trade secret, but I absolutely agree with the author on this point.
If your handicapping has a matchup close to the number you should ignore that game and move on.
When your handicapping method points to a probable side and all the relevant factors support your conclusion, a half point or full point should not make a difference.
Poker King Jim said:
sorry
"investing in college basketball" is what I am talking about
the best part in about 50 pages in where he talks about moneylines or "odds to win"
he gives an example of a line of -140/+160 (this is a 20 cent scalp)
I would have chalked it up to a typo, but he goes on to explain it, by saying that if the book has equal action, they will lose, but since the favorite wins so much they win money anyway
Poker King Jim said:
Call Kevin at this # 770-649-1078 @ Strategic Sports Publishing. You can get his 3 books on Sports Investing for appox 60 dollars. The best 60 dollars you will spend. Also Phil Steele has a book out Ten Keys To A Winning Season-3rd edition. 1-800-654-3448 The chapter on Situational Handicapping alone will make you a ton of money on college football. The cost is around 10 dollars. A must read. LT
no losers said:
I have to be missing something here. It is inevitable that some games are going to end up close to the #. Regardless of how good ANYONE is, there are going to be flukes and bizarre plays that somehow get the game very close to the #. Saying that it is not worth getting the best # is rediculous.
I don't care if it only becomes an issue in 1 out of 100 plays, it's still a potential 2.1 unit swing.
TINCO, I am right there with ya.
To suggest that shopping for half to full (or more) points is a waste belies the simple math.
But I think perhaps the cited (secondhand) reference might actually say "If you are shopping for that 1/2 point and won't make the play without it, then the selection is likely not strong enough."
But IF YOU WOULD make the play on a given selection with or without the potential half point gained by some shopping, then it's certainly good math to grab that half or full point on a selection you would play regardless.
To suggest that shopping for half to full (or more) points is a waste belies the simple math.
But I think perhaps the cited (secondhand) reference might actually say "If you are shopping for that 1/2 point and won't make the play without it, then the selection is likely not strong enough."
But IF YOU WOULD make the play on a given selection with or without the potential half point gained by some shopping, then it's certainly good math to grab that half or full point on a selection you would play regardless.
Anybody that doesn't shop for the best line is already starting out behind the 8 ball. You can understand the thinking behind "if you are confident in your pick, those few points shouldn't matter) but inevitably those few points will matter. It happens all the time. This week I wanted to get down on Ore St over Boise - Line was 3.5 all week and I held out and held out waiting to see 3 somewhere. On gameday it finally dropped to 3 and I hit it. Turned a loss into a push. In this racket where every little edge and angle is needed to come out ahead long term, you have to take every advantage and line shopping is a big one.
What if you're a parlay player?
In week 1, you played a $100 / five - teamer at 5 different books.
You went 5 for 5 and had a good day.
More importantly, each of your five teams covered the closing line by +10 ATS or greater.
In week 2, your handicapping method identifies five games which you believe will also cover the closing line by +10 or greater.
You increase your wager to $200 / five teamers at 5 different books.
You go 5 for 5 and have another good day.
More importantly, each of these five teams also cover the closing line by +10 or greater.
For two consecutive weeks, you go 10-0 and all ten picks cover the closing line by +10 or greater.
Was this by accident or very sharp handicapping?
If it's by accident, you shop for a line.
If it's very sharp handicapping, you're confident of the cover and don't shop because you know you don't have to.
I apologize if this post offends anyone.
In week 1, you played a $100 / five - teamer at 5 different books.
You went 5 for 5 and had a good day.
More importantly, each of your five teams covered the closing line by +10 ATS or greater.
In week 2, your handicapping method identifies five games which you believe will also cover the closing line by +10 or greater.
You increase your wager to $200 / five teamers at 5 different books.
You go 5 for 5 and have another good day.
More importantly, each of these five teams also cover the closing line by +10 or greater.
For two consecutive weeks, you go 10-0 and all ten picks cover the closing line by +10 or greater.
Was this by accident or very sharp handicapping?
If it's by accident, you shop for a line.
If it's very sharp handicapping, you're confident of the cover and don't shop because you know you don't have to.
I apologize if this post offends anyone.
