Gamblers Fallacy

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For example, consider a series of 20 coin flips that have all landed with the "heads" side up. Under the gambler's fallacy, a person might predict that the next coin flip is more likely to land with the "tails" side up.

is is there an opposite fallacy ?? Where a gambler keeps betting heads (and winning) ??
 

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bet a dollar to win a dollar

3 cups are turned upside down, one has a ball under it
if you pick the ball you win
I know which cup has the ball under it

you have a 1/3 chance of picking the cup with the ball
you pick a cup

I turn over one of the other cups to show you that it is empty and remove that cup

I give you the choice of keeping your cup or switching to the remaining cup

It's obvious at this point I am trying to give myself a chance to beat you. If you picked an empty cup I would have just asked you to turn over your cup and the game is over with me winning.

in a game like that your chances of winning are 1/3 at the start, if there is a second round your chances are 100% if you keep your cup and zero if you switch :)

things get complicated if we change the rules to where there had to be a second round.

1/3 at the start and then 50/50 for round two, giving you an overall chance of 1/6

with the 'let's make a deal' example the host controls the rules, knows where the prize is and remember, his goal is not to make a profit but to make the game entertaining for the viewers.

if the host has 2 or 3 rule sets to choose from during each round, and can add or subtract rounds then it becomes a game of calling someones bluff
 
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hahaha. ur a fuken genius, a legend in ur on mind. Festy where is the Malaysian jet? who took it down? Does God exist? If you choose the winning door and Monty tells you so, should you still switch to take advantage of 2/3? hahaha Oh wait, the process is not random if Monty is giving u choices right? Does a coin choose if its going to land heads or tails?

Dude, I have no idea where the Malaysian jet is....
 

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So what were the results on lets make a deal when they switched

Wouldn't be exactly 66% so something like 85% :think2:

But what if you want door 3 and pick 1 first to throw them off do you stick with 1 since you really what 3 if 2 had been opened
 

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