<header style='background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); display: block; font-family: "din-2014","Helvetica Neue",Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;'>Gamblers betting on Kavanaugh as Trump's Supreme Court pick
The D.C. Circuit Court judge is leading the pack with a 41 percent chance of being Trump’s nominee.
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By MATTHEW NUSSBAUM
<time style="box-sizing: border-box;" itemprop="datePublished" datetime="2018-07-05 11:29:52">07/05/2018
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The D.C. Circuit Court judge is leading the pack with a 41 percent chance of being Trump’s nominee.
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By MATTHEW NUSSBAUM
<time style="box-sizing: border-box;" itemprop="datePublished" datetime="2018-07-05 11:29:52">07/05/2018
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Lost money betting on the World Cup? Still seething about that NCAA bracket-busting UVA loss?
Anthony Kennedy’s Supreme Court vacancy is giving gamblers the next nail-biting chance to cash in — that is, if they can predict who President Donald Trump will pick.
Since the moment Kennedy announced his retirement last Wednesday, wagers have been laid and the betting markets have been trying to zero in on the likely nominee as the planned Monday announcement nears.
“Obviously when this took place last week we had a huge jump in interest on the site,” said Will Jennings, head of public engagement at PredictIt, a site that allows trading on political predictions. “This is likely to be a more erratic market.”
PredictIt labels itself “the stock market for politics,” where political junkies can put money behind their predictions.
As of Thursday morning, Brett Kavanaugh, a judge on the D.C. Circuit Court, led the pack with a 41 percent chance of being the pick. He has long been a favorite in conservative legal circles.
<strike></strike>For PredictIt users, though, he also provides a chance to make some money. Investors are capped at investing $850 per contract. If Kavanaugh were selected, an $850 investment at 41 cents a share would yield a return of $2,073, or a net profit of about $1,100 after PredictIt claimed its 10 percent share.
Anthony Kennedy’s Supreme Court vacancy is giving gamblers the next nail-biting chance to cash in — that is, if they can predict who President Donald Trump will pick.
Since the moment Kennedy announced his retirement last Wednesday, wagers have been laid and the betting markets have been trying to zero in on the likely nominee as the planned Monday announcement nears.
“Obviously when this took place last week we had a huge jump in interest on the site,” said Will Jennings, head of public engagement at PredictIt, a site that allows trading on political predictions. “This is likely to be a more erratic market.”
PredictIt labels itself “the stock market for politics,” where political junkies can put money behind their predictions.
As of Thursday morning, Brett Kavanaugh, a judge on the D.C. Circuit Court, led the pack with a 41 percent chance of being the pick. He has long been a favorite in conservative legal circles.
<strike></strike>For PredictIt users, though, he also provides a chance to make some money. Investors are capped at investing $850 per contract. If Kavanaugh were selected, an $850 investment at 41 cents a share would yield a return of $2,073, or a net profit of about $1,100 after PredictIt claimed its 10 percent share.
Sixth Circuit Court Judge Raymond Kethledge is second on the site with shares at 36 cents, followed by Amy Coney Barrett at 25 cents, Amul Thapar at 4 cents, Thomas Hardiman at 3 cents and Joan Larsen at 2 cents.
At least two foreign websites, BetDSI and Sportsbet.com, are traditional gambling websites that have set odds for the Supreme Court pick.
“Judge Brett Kavanaugh is still leading the betting but his chances are less likely now, drifting from $2.50 out to $2.63 and he holds only 8 percent of the book,” sportsbet.com.au’s said in a statement on Tuesday. “It’s been one week since betting began and we’ve really seen a shake-up to the market. The money has been coming in strongly supporting Judge Barrett and you know that old saying, money talks.’’
<strike></strike>Kavanaugh, Barrett, Thapar and Hardiman were the leading contenders on Sportsbet.
Unlike sports betting, which is heavily regulated, there is no readily available data on how many people place bets on political events, according to David Schwartz, director of the Center for Gaming Research at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. And even though the internet has made it more widely available, betting on political outcomes is not a new phenomenon.
“It definitely goes back a really long way, at least to the 18th century or so,” Schwartz said.
<strike></strike>
<strike></strike><strike></strike><strike></strike><strike></strike>At least two foreign websites, BetDSI and Sportsbet.com, are traditional gambling websites that have set odds for the Supreme Court pick.
“Judge Brett Kavanaugh is still leading the betting but his chances are less likely now, drifting from $2.50 out to $2.63 and he holds only 8 percent of the book,” sportsbet.com.au’s said in a statement on Tuesday. “It’s been one week since betting began and we’ve really seen a shake-up to the market. The money has been coming in strongly supporting Judge Barrett and you know that old saying, money talks.’’
<strike></strike>Kavanaugh, Barrett, Thapar and Hardiman were the leading contenders on Sportsbet.
Unlike sports betting, which is heavily regulated, there is no readily available data on how many people place bets on political events, according to David Schwartz, director of the Center for Gaming Research at the University of Nevada-Las Vegas. And even though the internet has made it more widely available, betting on political outcomes is not a new phenomenon.
“It definitely goes back a really long way, at least to the 18th century or so,” Schwartz said.
<strike></strike>
found that the political gamblers were quite savvy, with the underdog winning just once in the 15 presidential elections between 1884 and 1940 (when Woodrow Wilson defeated Charles Evan Hughes in 1916) — a feat “all the more remarkable given the absence of scientific polls before the mid-1930s,” the paper’s authors noted.
And if, come Monday, bettors learn that they have picked the wrong horse, fear not.
PredictIt has plans to launch “several more markets” on how key senators will vote on the eventual nominee, according to Jennings.
And if, come Monday, bettors learn that they have picked the wrong horse, fear not.
PredictIt has plans to launch “several more markets” on how key senators will vote on the eventual nominee, according to Jennings.
“We will turn these around within a few hours of Trump's decision as we expect trader interest over this debate to continue to grow,” he said.
