Thanks. Youre right.
That didnt take long. Turnovers always do that. This time it was for for me instead of against me.
Thanks cashflow.
Thanks. WE got it right early.
Thanks MLB. Appreciate the feedback
Lions +6.5 (Caesars) over KC. 10 Units................................W+1000
Detroit ML +190. 2 units...........................................................W+380
Saints ML -170 over Tennessee. 5 units................................W+500
Browns +2.5 (MGM) over Bengals. 10 units.........................W+1000
Pittsburgh +2.5 over SF. 10 Units...............................................................L-1100
Baltimore -9.5 over Houston. 5 units....................................W+500
Jacksonville -5 over Colts. 10 units........................................W+1000
Arizona +7 over Washington. 5 units.....................................W+500
Miami +3 over Chargers. 10 units ..........................................W+1000
Eagles ML over New England/ 10 units ................................W+1000
Dallas -3 ovvero Giants 3 units. ..............................................W+300.
Week One.
10-1. +6,080.00
Detroit ML +190. 2 units...........................................................W+380
Saints ML -170 over Tennessee. 5 units................................W+500
Browns +2.5 (MGM) over Bengals. 10 units.........................W+1000
Pittsburgh +2.5 over SF. 10 Units...............................................................L-1100
Baltimore -9.5 over Houston. 5 units....................................W+500
Jacksonville -5 over Colts. 10 units........................................W+1000
Arizona +7 over Washington. 5 units.....................................W+500
Miami +3 over Chargers. 10 units ..........................................W+1000
Eagles ML over New England/ 10 units ................................W+1000
Dallas -3 ovvero Giants 3 units. ..............................................W+300.
Week One.
10-1. +6,080.00
Gman what a baller
Your damn lucky or just good
Thanks PHD.
What is most important is relying on defensive advantages.
Early in the season, most teams are ready on defense while offenses are usually not up to speed yet.
A few games were decided by Turnovers and point spreads were off on some due to poor play a year ago.
The last 5-6 games of last year gives enough data to get a picture of what this year would be like.
Main reason for betting Detroit was how impressive they were the last 7 games of last year. Not only did they win 7 games in last 9 - they did it with scoring that validated those wins.
The Lions defense was in the top 5 in the league the last 6 games a year ago.
I think the early opening line was KC-9... But- When I saw line came out with KC -7 I knew then - that the number was totally based on what the public would do with a one-score spread at HOME with the Best QB in the league and a team that won the SB,
If we went back to midpoint a year ago BEFORE Detroit was winning - and if Detroit came into Arrowhead stadium this line would have been KC -13 or more. But the lions were nothing like that team in the first half of the season now coming into this game.
The number for week one now, was completely adjusted to keep most of the money on KC. All the time, the majority wouldn't take any team getting 7 in KC unless they were a playoff team.
What many never paid attention to, was that Detroit held the last 6 opponents to an average 16 points in these wins to close out the season.
That fact was in my write up in window #1.
That ONE factor was the dominating reason that Detroit would and could stay in this game regardless of it being in KC.
Also with Kelce being out - it changed the spread by 2-3 points. IF He was healthy I believe this line would actually go over 7 and more like 8 or 8.5 if the money kept coming in on KC.
But the Line was set with the public perception that the SB winner would be unbeatable - when all the time real capping by Vegas knew they had a good chance to beat the masses by keeping the masses on KC.
To offer you a little insight early. You should look at the last 4 - 6 games any team played and see what the points were scored and allowed. Once you have that in place, then you can start to dissect the data, game-by-game and see where the improvemnt could possibly be or where it may be worse.
IF You knew that the Bills were coming into KC scoring 35 and allowing 16 per game I bet you would have taken Buffalo regardless of what the spread was.
Thats what I considered with Detroit.. The points. - NOT the name of the team. They played as well as any team in the entire league the last 6-7 games of the year.
In fact...As good as SF until SF lost their QB in the playoffs.!!!
BOL to you and everyone.
Both teams were negative scoring while both were respectable on defense.
I thought Carr would be the difference from a year ago.
Check your PM>
Bills ML -130. 10 units.
No sense in laying 2 pts with that ML.
Both team defensively play well.
Unfortunartly for NY - the Bills are an outstanding road team.
The loss of Buffalo LB Von Miller is going to hurt, but thats not as important as the Bills offense.
They now have a helthy offense with a draft addition to the WR group.
The Packers with Aaron Rodgers were not all that good last year. He had career high interceptions with 12.
The Jets truly needed an upgrade in the QB position. They should be able to make the playoffs but Miami is better now and so should be Buffalo. NE right now is still an average team. That could change in a few more games.
Fumbles by Allen are the issue. If they can get away from counting on him as the whole offense - they should win this.
If they turn this into a one-demission run offense they will lose.
Bills head coach Sean Mc Dermott likes to be aggressive and takes many chances - but if they are trailing late in the game they will go for it on 4th downs and likely pull it out late.
Both teams support 19 point defenses - but if its Allen or Rodgers Im taking Allen.
He owns the Jets with a 6-1 SU record last 7.
Last 2 games with the Jets the line was Bills -10.
Lots of PUBLIC hope for Jets which the oddsmaker has adjusted for.
The Bill are a +9 scoring team - best in the division.
Lets not forget what they did last year in KC winning 24-20. as a 2pt favorite.
I dont think the Jets are in KC territory just yet.
BOL to everyone.
No sense in laying 2 pts with that ML.
Both team defensively play well.
Unfortunartly for NY - the Bills are an outstanding road team.
The loss of Buffalo LB Von Miller is going to hurt, but thats not as important as the Bills offense.
They now have a helthy offense with a draft addition to the WR group.
The Packers with Aaron Rodgers were not all that good last year. He had career high interceptions with 12.
The Jets truly needed an upgrade in the QB position. They should be able to make the playoffs but Miami is better now and so should be Buffalo. NE right now is still an average team. That could change in a few more games.
Fumbles by Allen are the issue. If they can get away from counting on him as the whole offense - they should win this.
If they turn this into a one-demission run offense they will lose.
Bills head coach Sean Mc Dermott likes to be aggressive and takes many chances - but if they are trailing late in the game they will go for it on 4th downs and likely pull it out late.
Both teams support 19 point defenses - but if its Allen or Rodgers Im taking Allen.
He owns the Jets with a 6-1 SU record last 7.
Last 2 games with the Jets the line was Bills -10.
Lots of PUBLIC hope for Jets which the oddsmaker has adjusted for.
The Bill are a +9 scoring team - best in the division.
Lets not forget what they did last year in KC winning 24-20. as a 2pt favorite.
I dont think the Jets are in KC territory just yet.
BOL to everyone.
Thanks. Were you at CTG?
