*****G-Man's College Plays. 2024 Aug24-Sept 2nd.*****

[G-Man!]

Units=100.

First game is a road game for BOTH teams in Ireland.

Ga Tech +10.5 over FSU. 5 units
GT ML +315. 2 units
Transfer QB Uiagalelie to FSU (Sounds like The Musical Instrument- Ukulele) - isn't Jordan Travis.
FSU also lost a bunch of transfers.

Nevada +28 -108 (HERITAGE) over SMU. 2 unitsOriginal line opened @+20. Now an 8pt move.

Unranked 2024 in the top #25 - SMU - won 5 of 6 road games last year by 21 points or less.
Nevada returns the most starters (*6+6) in 5 years with a starting QB.
Not sure SMU is all that ambitious here in a low level game. Would expect a coast in the second half.
Lookin for Wolfpack to put up 21 here. Don't think SMU will put up 49.
Pack was 6-4 ats with a horrible team last year.
Should be much better on offense and defense.
SMU was 2-3 ats in road tilts LY.

Remain ing games Thru Sept 2nd to follow here.

 

[sidthekid]

Units=100.

First game is a road game for BOTH teams in Ireland.

Ga Tech +10.5 over FSU. 5 units
GT ML +315. 2 units
Transfer QB Uiagalelie to FSU (Sounds like The Musical Instrument- Ukulele) - isn't Jordan Travis.
FSU also lost a bunch of transfers.

Nevada +28 -108 (HERITAGE) over SMU. 2 unitsOriginal line opened @+20. Now an 8pt move.

Unranked 2024 in the top #25 - SMU - won 5 of 6 road games last year by 21 points or less.
Nevada returns the most starters (*6+6) in 5 years with a starting QB.
Not sure SMU is all that ambitious here in a low level game. Would expect a coast in the second half.
Lookin for Wolfpack to put up 21 here. Don't think SMU will put up 49.
Pack was 6-4 ats with a horrible team last year.
Should be much better on offense and defense.
SMU was 2-3 ats in road tilts LY.

Remain ing games Thru Sept 2nd to follow here.

Let's G

 

[SilentKC]

Tailing you. Let's get this. You're one of my favs for CFL. Thanks for sharing, G. Good luck this season.

 

[G-Man!]

Tailing you. Let's get this. You're one of my favs for CFL. Thanks for sharing, G. Good luck this season.

Thanks
Appreciate the feedback.
Bol to you all season.

 

[LSUpete]

Dogs BARKING this weekend.

SMU surprised me with how awful they look. Nowhere close to the hype they’ve received.

 

[G-Man!]

Dogs BARKING this weekend.

SMU surprised me with how awful they look. Nowhere close to the hype they’ve received.

I didnt believe Nevada would win SU, but they did return more starters this year than in the last 5 years. I capped it with the potential in mind to reach 21+ points with 12 starters including the starting QB.
Like I said, they were improved just from that fact.
A year ago - as bad as they were - their scoring deficit was only -16.
SMU was a +21 scoring advantage and thats where this game line actually opened at. The odds makers took away all of the SMU advantage, with the opening line knowing that Nevada was going to be better.
The move from -21 to -28 was from the public perception and Hype as you said, that SMU would dominate.
But even with all that, SMU wasn't a Top #25 ranked team.
SMU will make Houston Christian pay next week if there is a line at all? Problem is how much.

 

[G-Man!]

Day one summary. 3-0. +1,330.00

 

[SilentKC]

Nice one!

 

[vinnyvegas]

Great work

 

[squidster]

Nice start G-Man, I jumped on Ga Tech but didn't have the stones to take Nevada. GL this season!

 

[G-Man!]

Thursday
Minnesota +2 over North Carolina.. 4 units
Line crossed over. Minn open was -1.
Loss of Starting NFL grade QB is a hard replacement. Just ask FSU.

Of 100 plus teams in College, only a dozen or so make it to the NFL draft, worthy of playing at the NFL level.
NC has lost theirs.
They did replace the loss of Drake Maye, they got a transfer from Texas AM. He is Max Johnson, a backup to King, at A&M .
Max averaged hitting 62% of his passes with 9 TD's and 5 ints. with a QB rating of 136.7 @A&M which is about average in College - but that was with a team that also returned a whopping 20 starters. 10 on offense -10 on defense.
NC is returning 13 this year with 7 on defense that allowed a not so solid 27 points per game.
Missesota retuned 16 starters with a Staring QB in their 5th straight season. Problems is they only averaged 21 points per game while allowing 27. A negative -6 scoring team..
Im Counting on the defense of Minnesota to win this and cover the number. Minny defensive talent should improve with 8 starters back. . IM looking for them to allow far less this year ,which NC may not be any better than last year by allowing 27.
With the returnees for Minn and the lack of an NFL grade QB for NC, I see the production number reversing from what they were a year ago - now in Minnesota's favor.

Fridy Aug 30th,

Wisconsin -23.5 over Western Michigan. 4 units
We have two teams on the rise. Both return Starting QB's. Wisconsin actually has a Transfer from Miami now as the possible starter. - Tyler VanDyke.
More importantly Wisky has a strong defense returning as they only allowed 2 teams to score more than 24 points LY.
Their problem was on offense where they only averaged 23 per game which was lowest in 5 years.
Can VanDyke improve on that number? In week one he should, because he is facing W.Mich who allowed 32 pts per game vs low level talent teams. Not on the level of the Big 10..
There may be a QB Duel in Wisky, with the starter LY was Brayden Locke. Not sure who will start this game?
W. Mich is also solid in returning starters. In fact, in the top 20 teams this year with 17 they have an an outstanding group of starters. .
The last time they returned 12 or more players, they ended up a winning team with a plus scoring advantage on the seasons.
That being said - means the point spread record from a ear ago will have a drastic effect in the outcome ATS this year..
W.Mich had only 2 games all year that were +24.5 and +28.5. They lost both ATS. But now they have a solid squad and amu cover this especially if Wisky plays 2 QB's in this somewhat easy opener.
Wisky also has another soft team next week, so basically Wisky is playing 2 non-divison foes who are not on the Big-Ten level.
Week three is a different story as they will face Alabama.
Knowing all this, is why I believe they will be experimenting with the QB scenarios in the first 2 games.
The goal this year For Minn is scoring on offense. The defense is already set.
Look for a big scoring game from Wisconsin today.


More on Friday

 

[G-Man!]

TYPO
The goal this year For Minn Wisconsin is scoring on offense. The defense is already set.
Look for a big scoring game from Wisconsin today.

 

[one51rum]

very well done on week 0 brother

 

[killykill]

Good Luck Gman.. nice start to the season!

 

[G-Man!]

Push - on the posted number w/Minny. Game won for those with +2.5.
2 missed Fg's.

 

[vinnyvegas]

Right side, bad luck. I get 1 miss…but make a FN adjustment Kicker!! Missing both sides deserves a benching

Push always tastes so bad but moving on.

GL rest of weekend G

 

[AlistairCookie]

GL gman this year

 

[G-Man!]

Friday
Oklahoma 42.5 (-120) over Temple. 3 units

Wisconsin posted above ^^^ window #11.

 

[G-Man!]

Friday.
Oklahoma -42.5 (-120) over Temple 4 units ( Upped Units to 4.) from Post above.


Saturday
12:00PM
VT -13.5 over Vanderbilt. 3 units
VT was a Plus 6 team with a .500 record LY. That number should double now as both sides of the ball are likely improved.
The line opened -12 with odds makers are counting on Vandebilt to fade some or at best, hold the same..
Add the imaginary 3 point HF advatage and the number is spot on.

Vandy is a negative defensive team by 12 points! Its hard to over come from that huge difference.
One major factor remains in this equation...- the defenses are miles apart - as well as the offense by a TD.
If the expected improvement goes like I mentioned for VT, they win and cover.

Penn State -7.5 over W. Virginia. 4 units
I read some data/write ups on this game and I believe that the Starting QB data for VW contained some misinformation.
Staring QB Garret Greene for WV did play last year against PSU and was beat as noted.
Its been said he started 2 games LY and had 22 starts overall in his career. He actually played in 41 games in 4 years..

I checked and Found he actually started 12 gams last year including throwing for 53.% with 2400 yards - and the PSU loss.
The PSU defense held him to only 145 yards passing.. His Rating LY was only 142.2 for the season..
The line moved as of today, 13.5 points from a year ago (-21) as PSU is now favored by 7.5 points.

PSU has the best defense by far and allowed only 13 pts per game LY.
WV has only 5 defensive starters returning from a group that allowed 26! Not a good thing facing a returning QB from PSU that only lost to Michigan and Ohio State. Im not putting WV in that class.

IF my data is wrong then I may not win this. I think its right.
This could be the season Low for WV on total yards in this game.
We'll see.

More on Saturday

 

[LSUpete]

Thursday
Minnesota +2 over North Carolina.. 4 units
Line crossed over. Minn open was -1.
Loss of Starting NFL grade QB is a hard replacement. Just ask FSU.

Of 100 plus teams in College, only a dozen or so make it to the NFL draft, worthy of playing at the NFL level.
NC has lost theirs.
They did replace the loss of Drake Maye, they got a transfer from Texas AM. He is Max Johnson, a backup to King, at A&M .
Max averaged hitting 62% of his passes with 9 TD's and 5 ints. with a QB rating of 136.7 @A&M which is about average in College - but that was with a team that also returned a whopping 20 starters. 10 on offense -10 on defense.
NC is returning 13 this year with 7 on defense that allowed a not so solid 27 points per game.
Missesota retuned 16 starters with a Staring QB in their 5th straight season. Problems is they only averaged 21 points per game while allowing 27. A negative -6 scoring team..
Im Counting on the defense of Minnesota to win this and cover the number. Minny defensive talent should improve with 8 starters back. . IM looking for them to allow far less this year ,which NC may not be any better than last year by allowing 27.
With the returnees for Minn and the lack of an NFL grade QB for NC, I see the production number reversing from what they were a year ago - now in Minnesota's favor.

Fridy Aug 30th,

Wisconsin -23.5 over Western Michigan. 4 units
We have two teams on the rise. Both return Starting QB's. Wisconsin actually has a Transfer from Miami now as the possible starter. - Tyler VanDyke.
More importantly Wisky has a strong defense returning as they only allowed 2 teams to score more than 24 points LY.
Their problem was on offense where they only averaged 23 per game which was lowest in 5 years.
Can VanDyke improve on that number? In week one he should, because he is facing W.Mich who allowed 32 pts per game vs low level talent teams. Not on the level of the Big 10..
There may be a QB Duel in Wisky, with the starter LY was Brayden Locke. Not sure who will start this game?
W. Mich is also solid in returning starters. In fact, in the top 20 teams this year with 17 they have an an outstanding group of starters. .
The last time they returned 12 or more players, they ended up a winning team with a plus scoring advantage on the seasons.
That being said - means the point spread record from a ear ago will have a drastic effect in the outcome ATS this year..
W.Mich had only 2 games all year that were +24.5 and +28.5. They lost both ATS. But now they have a solid squad and amu cover this especially if Wisky plays 2 QB's in this somewhat easy opener.
Wisky also has another soft team next week, so basically Wisky is playing 2 non-divison foes who are not on the Big-Ten level.
Week three is a different story as they will face Alabama.
Knowing all this, is why I believe they will be experimenting with the QB scenarios in the first 2 games.
The goal this year For Minn is scoring on offense. The defense is already set.
Look for a big scoring game from Wisconsin today.


More on Friday

Man…. Wisconsin was the wrong side tonight. They looked like ass!