sleepyj | CBB Total | Fri, 12/30/22 - 11:00 PM |
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890 Washington St. / 889 UCLA Under 134.0 Bookmaker
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triple-dime bet
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Analysis:
This total might look right to some based on the PPG, but I think this one is wrong. Based on PPG this total should be 132.8..So we get a tick of value with just that. That's small potatoes here though. The real reason is defense, pace and what UCLA doesn't do. Let's talk pace first. We always want the home team to dictate the pace and we want to make our wagers in accordance to what the home teams pace is..So, we have a slow paced team in Washington St we want under. That's not always the case, but it fits here and usually, this is what you guys want to do. The home team usually dictates the pace and Washington St. is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation. We have a total of 363 teams in Div 1 and Wazzu ranks 332. That's about as slow as iËt gets. Even though they are 332, they could be as low as 257..almost dead last. It's literally by a pt...So it's a slow go with this Cougars team..Now even though UCLA scores at a rather good clip, they aren't a fast paced team either. They rank 152nd...That's average, not fast, not slow..The slow teams are generally in the bottom 50...fast passed teams in the top 50...Washington St. actually has a good scoring defense, but much of that is pace related. UCLA has two major issues though and I guarantee you it will plague them later on in conference play and tournament play. They simply don't get to the free throw line enough and they don't shoot enough 3's. They are 330th in 3pt attempts. 319th in FT Attempts..That's not going to cut it and against a slow paced team, this game becomes and inside only game for UCLA. Trying to get matchups that provide nothing but dunks and layups. That takes time and we know that based on UCLA pace and stats I just hit on above. Wazzu has played a bunch of low scoring games, but UCLA would be everyones worry here. Well UCLA against the slowest teams in the nation has struggled to get near this total. This sis the slowest paced team they will face all year long and the slow paced team is at home. This game is line at 8.5, so the FT line late might not even matter, but if it does, based on the UCLA games against slow teams, the total could still absorb some late FT shenanigans. UCLA has won 8 in a row and it's all because of the defense. They haven't allowed more than 66pts in 8 straight games. UCLA has held teams to 60pts or less in 6 of 8. Wazzu just allowed 82 to Utah State and the focus for them will be to slow it down and not run up and down with UCLA. Once UCLA gets a wiff of how slow this Wazzu team is and how low of a score they can hold them too, UCLA will fall into the trap of playing a slow paced defensive game. Under will cash..UCLA 64-53 Final.
Pick Made: Dec 29 2022 10:33PM PST