Insider Sports Report
D* L.A. Angels (Cobb) -110 over Minnesota (Happ)
Range: +110 to -130
C* Washington (Corbin)/Baltimore (Lopez) OVER 10
Range: 9.5 to 10.5
C* Oakland (Montas) -110 over Seattle (Kikuchi)
Range: +105 to -135
National Sports Service
D* N.Y. Mets (Megill) -120 over Toronto (Matz)
3* Chicago Cubs (Davies) -140 over Arizona (Gallen)
Primetime Sports Picks
E Unit --> Detroit (Peralta) +100 over Kansas City (Bubic)
C Unit --> N.Y. Yankees (Cole) -110 over Boston (Rodriguez)
Top Rank Sports Picks
D★ L.A. Angels (Cobb) -110 over Minnesota (Happ)
C★ Cincinnati (Mahle) -150 over St. Louis (Leblanc)
D* L.A. Angels (Cobb) -110 over Minnesota (Happ)
Range: +110 to -130
C* Washington (Corbin)/Baltimore (Lopez) OVER 10
Range: 9.5 to 10.5
C* Oakland (Montas) -110 over Seattle (Kikuchi)
Range: +105 to -135
National Sports Service
D* N.Y. Mets (Megill) -120 over Toronto (Matz)
3* Chicago Cubs (Davies) -140 over Arizona (Gallen)
Primetime Sports Picks
E Unit --> Detroit (Peralta) +100 over Kansas City (Bubic)
C Unit --> N.Y. Yankees (Cole) -110 over Boston (Rodriguez)
Top Rank Sports Picks
D★ L.A. Angels (Cobb) -110 over Minnesota (Happ)
C★ Cincinnati (Mahle) -150 over St. Louis (Leblanc)
Jeff Hochman
CHI. WHITE SOX @ MILWAUKEE | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -125
ANALYSIS: Milwaukee has lost a season-high five straight home games and is looking to bounce back after dropping back-to-back games against Kansas City before Thursday's off day. The Brewers will turn to Freddy Peralta (7-3, 2.39 ERA), who is making his first start since July 10. His ERA at home is 2.04 while holding hitters to a .109 batting average. Lucas Giolito is coming off a complete game gem and hasn't pitch great in starts after complete games. His ERA is 4.98 on the road this season. I like the Brewers in this one.
CHI. WHITE SOX @ MILWAUKEE | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -125
ANALYSIS: Milwaukee has lost a season-high five straight home games and is looking to bounce back after dropping back-to-back games against Kansas City before Thursday's off day. The Brewers will turn to Freddy Peralta (7-3, 2.39 ERA), who is making his first start since July 10. His ERA at home is 2.04 while holding hitters to a .109 batting average. Lucas Giolito is coming off a complete game gem and hasn't pitch great in starts after complete games. His ERA is 4.98 on the road this season. I like the Brewers in this one.
Justin Perri
COLORADO @ L.A. DODGERS | 07/23 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Rockies got a day off yesterday, but they are notoriously bad in road openers and on the road in general. I have been talking all season about the difficulty of playing at lower elevations after a series in Denver, and Colorado just finished a series up in the mountains. Now the Rockies go to Los Angeles against a Dodgers team that blew it last night and is looking to get a win to keep up with the Giants, who now have a three-game lead in the division. This is almost a must-sweep series for the Dodgers in my eyes. and I expect them to bring out the brooms this weekend. That starts with a multirun win for L.A. on Friday.
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
OVER 10.5
ANALYSIS: The last two times these teams opened a series in Kansas City the games totaled 12 and 13 runs. I expect a similar result today. I do not trust Royals pitcher Kris Bubic at batter-friendly Kauffman Stadium, and the Tigers have been hitting well of late. I also am betting on a bit of regression for Wily Peralta. He has faced the Indians, Rangers and Twins twice in his last four starts, which makes me doubt the one earned run he's allowed over the last 26.2 innings pitched. His peripheral numbers show a low strikeout rate and his expected ERA is 3.54 (much higher than his actual 1.64). I'll bet on these pitchers struggling in a plus hitting environment.
ARIZONA @ CHI. CUBS | 07/23 | 2:20 PM EDT
OVER 10
ANALYSIS: Cubs at home, wind blowing out and a subpar pitcher for Chicago? I will happily go Over. This one opened at 11 but has been bet down likely due to the recent success of Zac Gallen. I think the market is wrong with that, and I'll take the number at 10. The wind is such a huge factor at this park that of the last 110 games played at Wrigley with similar conditions the run scoring has been 23 percent higher than on an average day in Chicago. This is one of those scenarios you play systemically because you will win long-term. Let's go with the Over.
COLORADO @ L.A. DODGERS | 07/23 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Rockies got a day off yesterday, but they are notoriously bad in road openers and on the road in general. I have been talking all season about the difficulty of playing at lower elevations after a series in Denver, and Colorado just finished a series up in the mountains. Now the Rockies go to Los Angeles against a Dodgers team that blew it last night and is looking to get a win to keep up with the Giants, who now have a three-game lead in the division. This is almost a must-sweep series for the Dodgers in my eyes. and I expect them to bring out the brooms this weekend. That starts with a multirun win for L.A. on Friday.
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
OVER 10.5
ANALYSIS: The last two times these teams opened a series in Kansas City the games totaled 12 and 13 runs. I expect a similar result today. I do not trust Royals pitcher Kris Bubic at batter-friendly Kauffman Stadium, and the Tigers have been hitting well of late. I also am betting on a bit of regression for Wily Peralta. He has faced the Indians, Rangers and Twins twice in his last four starts, which makes me doubt the one earned run he's allowed over the last 26.2 innings pitched. His peripheral numbers show a low strikeout rate and his expected ERA is 3.54 (much higher than his actual 1.64). I'll bet on these pitchers struggling in a plus hitting environment.
ARIZONA @ CHI. CUBS | 07/23 | 2:20 PM EDT
OVER 10
ANALYSIS: Cubs at home, wind blowing out and a subpar pitcher for Chicago? I will happily go Over. This one opened at 11 but has been bet down likely due to the recent success of Zac Gallen. I think the market is wrong with that, and I'll take the number at 10. The wind is such a huge factor at this park that of the last 110 games played at Wrigley with similar conditions the run scoring has been 23 percent higher than on an average day in Chicago. This is one of those scenarios you play systemically because you will win long-term. Let's go with the Over.
John Bollman
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
DETROIT +105
ANALYSIS: The Tigers haven’t lost a game since the All Star break and they are 38-27 since May 8th, good for fifth best in the AL. Willy Peralta has been great, having not allowed more than one run in his last five starts. Kris Bubic has been hit hard lately after starting the season strong. He has allowed four home runs and nine walks in his last three starts. I don’t see a reason not to keep backing the Tigers as they are one of the most profitable teams all season. Take the Tigers at plus money.
L.A. ANGELS @ MINNESOTA | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -121
ANALYSIS: Alex Cobb has been on a roll and although he has struggled on the road, he is coming off an earned run less outing in his last road game. JA Happ has seriously struggled this season and although he has been able to pitch deep, he has been allowing plenty of runs. The Angels have the third highest wOBA in the league against lefties and the Twins are without Cruz and Kiriloff in their lineup. Take the Angels on the road.
TORONTO @ N.Y. METS | 07/23 | 7:10 PM EDT
TORONTO +105
ANALYSIS: Steven Matz returns to his old stomping grounds in New York tonight to face the Mets and he has been much better on the road at 6-2 with a 3.70 ERA this season. Tylor Megill has now made five starts this season although against only three total teams. He hasn’t faced a lineup nearly as good as the Blue Jays yet and although the Blue Jays lose the DH, they won’t be losing a key player in the lineup. The Mets struggle against lefties, take the Blue Jays with plus money.
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
DETROIT +105
ANALYSIS: The Tigers haven’t lost a game since the All Star break and they are 38-27 since May 8th, good for fifth best in the AL. Willy Peralta has been great, having not allowed more than one run in his last five starts. Kris Bubic has been hit hard lately after starting the season strong. He has allowed four home runs and nine walks in his last three starts. I don’t see a reason not to keep backing the Tigers as they are one of the most profitable teams all season. Take the Tigers at plus money.
L.A. ANGELS @ MINNESOTA | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -121
ANALYSIS: Alex Cobb has been on a roll and although he has struggled on the road, he is coming off an earned run less outing in his last road game. JA Happ has seriously struggled this season and although he has been able to pitch deep, he has been allowing plenty of runs. The Angels have the third highest wOBA in the league against lefties and the Twins are without Cruz and Kiriloff in their lineup. Take the Angels on the road.
TORONTO @ N.Y. METS | 07/23 | 7:10 PM EDT
TORONTO +105
ANALYSIS: Steven Matz returns to his old stomping grounds in New York tonight to face the Mets and he has been much better on the road at 6-2 with a 3.70 ERA this season. Tylor Megill has now made five starts this season although against only three total teams. He hasn’t faced a lineup nearly as good as the Blue Jays yet and although the Blue Jays lose the DH, they won’t be losing a key player in the lineup. The Mets struggle against lefties, take the Blue Jays with plus money.
Micah Roberts
TEXAS @ HOUSTON | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -203
ANALYSIS: The Astros have won all six meetings in Houston. This is usually out of my price range, but I only bet it because the price is 30 cents light. The Rangers are a mess, losing nine straight and Kolby Allard is not the savior as the Rangers have lost six straight behind him. Take the Astros to win.
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
DETROIT +105
ANALYSIS: The Tigers are having some fun riding a seven-game win streak and are now only four games below .500 (47-51). I’m riding the streak with the Tigers who are doing everything right. During the streak, their average score is 6.0 to 1.7 with opponents hitting only .173. Timely hitting helps, but great pitching from the starters and bullpen is what's getting the job done. Tigers to win.
L.A. ANGELS @ MINNESOTA | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -121
ANALYSIS: The Twins just traded slugger Nelson Cruz. Friday's bet on the Angels is about Alex Cobb, who has allowed one run or less in four of his last five starts. J.A. Happ allowed seven runs in his last start. Take the Angels to win.
TEXAS @ HOUSTON | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -203
ANALYSIS: The Astros have won all six meetings in Houston. This is usually out of my price range, but I only bet it because the price is 30 cents light. The Rangers are a mess, losing nine straight and Kolby Allard is not the savior as the Rangers have lost six straight behind him. Take the Astros to win.
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
DETROIT +105
ANALYSIS: The Tigers are having some fun riding a seven-game win streak and are now only four games below .500 (47-51). I’m riding the streak with the Tigers who are doing everything right. During the streak, their average score is 6.0 to 1.7 with opponents hitting only .173. Timely hitting helps, but great pitching from the starters and bullpen is what's getting the job done. Tigers to win.
L.A. ANGELS @ MINNESOTA | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -121
ANALYSIS: The Twins just traded slugger Nelson Cruz. Friday's bet on the Angels is about Alex Cobb, who has allowed one run or less in four of his last five starts. J.A. Happ allowed seven runs in his last start. Take the Angels to win.
ARIZONA @ CHI. CUBS | 07/23 | 2:20 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS -135
ANALYSIS: The Cubs will have Kris Bryant back in the lineup -- barring a trade (Nelson Cruz deal burned me Thursday night) -- and closer Craig Kimbrel should be available after he wouldn't have been yesterday. This is Chicago's first home game since the break and the Cubs are simply a different club at Wrigley. Starting pitcher Zach Davies has a 2.78 ERA in day games this year. I don't take much stock in day of the week trends, but Arizona is a laughable 2-14 in its past 16 Friday games and just horrid on the road. The Snakes are without leading hitter and OBP guy Josh Rojas as well. He's tied for the team lead with a WAR of 2.1. I tend to agree with Justin Perri on the Over and that's a great stat he provided.
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY -115
ANALYSIS: A few other experts are on the Tigers for this one, and I get it with how well they are playing on a seven-game winning streak. Thing is, all those wins were at home. Detroit isn't Colorado or Arizona bad on the road, but well under .500 and swept four at Minnesota right before the break. The Tigers also had to play Thursday and used their All-Star reliever, Gregory Soto, for a third straight game. Thus, he's clearly not available. Kansas City was off Thursday, so a full bullpen, and swept two at Milwaukee to open the week. Kris Bubic (2-4, 5.03) has been much better at home (3.34 ERA) and has a 1.80 ERA this year in 10 innings vs. Detroit. KC is 6-0 in its past six after an off day.
