Jeff Hochman
CBB | SAN DIEGO ST. @ ALABAMA | 03/24 | 6:30 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO ST. +7.5
ANALYSIS: Both teams play real defense. The Aztecs' defense is elite, which is why the total is relatively low. All the pressure is on Alabama. I try to keep it simple in the Sweet 16. I have this game power-rated closer to five points. I see value with the Aztecs in this spot. I love their coach too. Take the underdog.
CBB | SAN DIEGO ST. @ ALABAMA | 03/24 | 6:30 PM EDT
ANALYSIS: Both teams play real defense. The Aztecs' defense is elite, which is why the total is relatively low. All the pressure is on Alabama. I try to keep it simple in the Sweet 16. I have this game power-rated closer to five points. I see value with the Aztecs in this spot. I love their coach too. Take the underdog.
Larry Hartstein
CBB | MIAMI @ HOUSTON | 03/24 | 7:15 PM EDT
HOUSTON -7
ANALYSIS: Miami guard Isaiah Wong went 1 for 10 in the NCAA Tournament opener vs. Drake, then buried 9 of 17 for 27 points in the win over Indiana. Look for him to struggle in this matchup against Houston, which guards perimeter players a lot better than the Hoosiers do. The injury reports on Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead have been good, and it helps that they don't play until Friday. Houston is the only team in the nation that ranks in the Top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency at KenPom. The Cougars rebounded nearly 40 percent of their misses versus Auburn and should get another boatload of offensive boards.
CBB | XAVIER @ TEXAS | 03/24 | 9:45 PM EDT
TEXAS -4
ANALYSIS: The Longhorns sport a top-15 offense and defense per KenPom, while the Musketeers are elite offensively but mediocre defensively. Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter should be able to penetrate at will, while Dylan Disu (14 of 20 last game) is averaging 16.5 points over his last eight games. Texas holds opponents to 42.1 percent shooting. The Longhorns had covered six straight, by an average of more than nine points, until pushing versus Penn State. Texas shot 1 of 13 from deep in that five-point win. Look for the more balanced Longhorns, playing in Kansas City where they rolled through the Big 12 Tournament, to advance and cover.
NBA |SAN ANTONIO @ WASHINGTON | 03/24 | 7:00 PM EDT
DENI AVDIJA OVER 26.5 TOTAL POINTS + ASSISTS + REBOUNDS -117
ANALYSIS: Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma remain out for Friday's must-win versus the Spurs. That means Deni Avdija should start and continue to play 30-plus minutes. In the last two games, the versatile 6-9 forward has played 34 and 32 minutes and responded with an average of 29 combined points, rebounds and assists. Now he gets a friendlier matchup against the tanking Spurs. In his only previous game against the Spurs this season, Avdija came off the bench to put up 25 points, nine rebounds and one assist in 33 minutes. With a similar workload expected Friday, go Over 26.5.
CBB | UCONN @ GONZAGA | 03/25 | 8:49 PM EDT
UCONN -2
ANALYSIS: Adem Bona's absence was critical in UCLA's loss to the Zags, as Drew Timme dominated with 36 points, 13 rebounds and four assists. Gonzaga had a whopping 16 offensive rebounds. That shouldn't happen against a bigger UConn side -- featuring Adama Sanogo, Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban -- that ranks 27th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage (78.0). Since Feb. 1, the Huskies have been the nation's best team in overall efficiency, reminiscent of the form they showed during their 14-0 start. They won't register a fourth straight NCAA Tournament blowout but should cover this small number.
CBB | MIAMI @ HOUSTON | 03/24 | 7:15 PM EDT
ANALYSIS: Miami guard Isaiah Wong went 1 for 10 in the NCAA Tournament opener vs. Drake, then buried 9 of 17 for 27 points in the win over Indiana. Look for him to struggle in this matchup against Houston, which guards perimeter players a lot better than the Hoosiers do. The injury reports on Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead have been good, and it helps that they don't play until Friday. Houston is the only team in the nation that ranks in the Top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency at KenPom. The Cougars rebounded nearly 40 percent of their misses versus Auburn and should get another boatload of offensive boards.
CBB | XAVIER @ TEXAS | 03/24 | 9:45 PM EDT
ANALYSIS: The Longhorns sport a top-15 offense and defense per KenPom, while the Musketeers are elite offensively but mediocre defensively. Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter should be able to penetrate at will, while Dylan Disu (14 of 20 last game) is averaging 16.5 points over his last eight games. Texas holds opponents to 42.1 percent shooting. The Longhorns had covered six straight, by an average of more than nine points, until pushing versus Penn State. Texas shot 1 of 13 from deep in that five-point win. Look for the more balanced Longhorns, playing in Kansas City where they rolled through the Big 12 Tournament, to advance and cover.
NBA |
DENI AVDIJA OVER 26.5 TOTAL POINTS + ASSISTS + REBOUNDS -117
ANALYSIS: Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma remain out for Friday's must-win versus the Spurs. That means Deni Avdija should start and continue to play 30-plus minutes. In the last two games, the versatile 6-9 forward has played 34 and 32 minutes and responded with an average of 29 combined points, rebounds and assists. Now he gets a friendlier matchup against the tanking Spurs. In his only previous game against the Spurs this season, Avdija came off the bench to put up 25 points, nine rebounds and one assist in 33 minutes. With a similar workload expected Friday, go Over 26.5.
CBB | UCONN @ GONZAGA | 03/25 | 8:49 PM EDT
ANALYSIS: Adem Bona's absence was critical in UCLA's loss to the Zags, as Drew Timme dominated with 36 points, 13 rebounds and four assists. Gonzaga had a whopping 16 offensive rebounds. That shouldn't happen against a bigger UConn side -- featuring Adama Sanogo, Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban -- that ranks 27th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage (78.0). Since Feb. 1, the Huskies have been the nation's best team in overall efficiency, reminiscent of the form they showed during their 14-0 start. They won't register a fourth straight NCAA Tournament blowout but should cover this small number.
Stephen Oh
NHL |NEW JERSEY @ BUFFALO | 03/24 | 7:00 PM EDT
OVER 6.5 -135
ANALYSIS: This makes a lot of sense. Both Buffalo and New Jersey are in the top six in the NHL in goals scored per game. These are two high-flying offenses and the game has the potential to turn into a rock fight. The Over's hitting in 67% of my model's simulations, making it an easy pick here.
NHL | N.Y. ISLANDERS @ COLUMBUS | 03/24 | 7:00 PM EDT
COLUMBUS +1.5 -145
ANALYSIS: There's no beating around the bush here -- the Blue Jackets are bad. But even as they struggle to get outright wins, they're above water ATS. My model has Columbus covering in 67% of its simulations for tonight's game, which makes the price a great value.
NBA | PHOENIX @ SACRAMENTO | 03/24 | 10:00 PM EDT
SACRAMENTO -180
ANALYSIS: There's some serious juice here, but it's worth the squeeze. Kevin Durant is still out, and he'll be joined on the sidelines by Deandre Ayton. Phoenix is just 15-22 on the road this season. The Kings are all but built in a lab to feast on compromised teams. Sacramento is winning in a whopping 75% of my model's simulations. Kings to win.
NHL |
OVER 6.5 -135
ANALYSIS: This makes a lot of sense. Both Buffalo and New Jersey are in the top six in the NHL in goals scored per game. These are two high-flying offenses and the game has the potential to turn into a rock fight. The Over's hitting in 67% of my model's simulations, making it an easy pick here.
NHL | N.Y. ISLANDERS @ COLUMBUS | 03/24 | 7:00 PM EDT
ANALYSIS: There's no beating around the bush here -- the Blue Jackets are bad. But even as they struggle to get outright wins, they're above water ATS. My model has Columbus covering in 67% of its simulations for tonight's game, which makes the price a great value.
NBA | PHOENIX @ SACRAMENTO | 03/24 | 10:00 PM EDT
ANALYSIS: There's some serious juice here, but it's worth the squeeze. Kevin Durant is still out, and he'll be joined on the sidelines by Deandre Ayton. Phoenix is just 15-22 on the road this season. The Kings are all but built in a lab to feast on compromised teams. Sacramento is winning in a whopping 75% of my model's simulations. Kings to win.
Bob Bafle
Current NCAA Tournament Record 13-8
NIT Tournament Record 2-0
College Basketball
9:00 PM EST
Rotation # 650
Creighton -10.5 over Princeton
Princeton certainly has made a great run at the 15 seed, but historically lower seeds fizzle out as we get to the better competition. Creighton is in a different weight class as they have played in tougher competition and are the far superior team. Both teams have a tremendous upside for next season as two younger teams left in the tournament. Greg McDermott is an outstanding coach that will lead the Bluejays to a double-digit victory. Creighton doesn’t play with one superstar, as they can beat you with different players in many areas. Look for the Bluejays to go on many runs that will frustrate the Tigers into submission. Take Creighton.
College Basketball
9:45 PM EST
Rotation # 646
Texas -3.5 over Xavier
Rodney Terry has done great coaching after Chris Beard was let go. It will cost Texas at some point in the tournament. Sean Miller has done a great job with Xavier in his first season coaching the Musketeers. Xavier shoots a lot of three-pointers, but the Texas defense has been outstanding the last month, allowing less than 30% on three-point attempts. Neither team is familiar with the court they are playing on, so three-point shots might fall less. Texas has been outstanding at hitting 2pt shots close to the basket. In a game like tonight’s, it makes a big difference. The Longhorns are a physical team from a superior conference and should win their way into the elite eight. Take Texas.
Current NCAA Tournament Record 13-8
NIT Tournament Record 2-0
College Basketball
9:00 PM EST
Rotation # 650
Princeton certainly has made a great run at the 15 seed, but historically lower seeds fizzle out as we get to the better competition. Creighton is in a different weight class as they have played in tougher competition and are the far superior team. Both teams have a tremendous upside for next season as two younger teams left in the tournament. Greg McDermott is an outstanding coach that will lead the Bluejays to a double-digit victory. Creighton doesn’t play with one superstar, as they can beat you with different players in many areas. Look for the Bluejays to go on many runs that will frustrate the Tigers into submission. Take Creighton.
College Basketball
9:45 PM EST
Rotation # 646
Rodney Terry has done great coaching after Chris Beard was let go. It will cost Texas at some point in the tournament. Sean Miller has done a great job with Xavier in his first season coaching the Musketeers. Xavier shoots a lot of three-pointers, but the Texas defense has been outstanding the last month, allowing less than 30% on three-point attempts. Neither team is familiar with the court they are playing on, so three-point shots might fall less. Texas has been outstanding at hitting 2pt shots close to the basket. In a game like tonight’s, it makes a big difference. The Longhorns are a physical team from a superior conference and should win their way into the elite eight. Take Texas.
WAR has been pretty terrible lately on Pinnacle plays as of late.
NCAA BIG, BAD and BOLD PINNACLE MAXX BET
PointSpreadNCAAB
Friday, March 24, 2023 - 18:30
Pinnacle——
One can’t count out how important basic fundamental play and defense is when teams make it to the Sweet 16. This is the absolute last type of team Alabama wants to face as this is a bad matchup for Bama. Defense is going to be the key to unlocking an Elite Eight birth for San Diego State. San Diego St enters Friday's game with one of the best defenses in the country (63.1 points per game, 25th in the NCAA). San Diego State also defends the three-point line exceptionally well at 28.8 percent (sixth in the NCAA) and gives up 31.2 rebounds per game (30th in the NCAA). The Crimson Tide will not win this game by margin as the Aztecs' defense is one of the best in the NCAA. San Diego State will want to slow the pace, as the Tide have an explosive offense led by Miller, Sears, and Quinerly. Alabama likes to move with speed, hit three point shots, and get extra possesions on the offensive glass. These are all areas that San Diego State can slow down. There may not be an upset, but a low scoring and close affair is on tap.The Aztecs have the ability to slow this game down and limit the possessions of the Crimson Tide, so backing the Aztecs to keep this game within reach will be our best bet. Watch the difference that older and more experienced players bring to the court. San Diego State is even more physical with its rotation of seven seniors and two juniors who can all mash and bash. Alabama’s going to get shoved around, and again, it's dealing with a veteran team that looks and plays like it spent the last five years in a college weight room (four starters check in at 220 pounds or more). Alabama won't be able to control the interior, and almost more importantly here, its great defense won't force mistakes. In games in which they've limited opponents to 65 or fewer points, the Aztecs are 20-0 this season.
IntPicks
Full card for Friday:
NCAAB
SDSU vs Alabama Over 136 (top)
Houston -7
Princeton +10
Xavier vs Texas Under 149.5 (top)
NBA
GS -4.5 (top)
Sacramento -4.5 (free)
70% last 90 picks overall (63-27). 9-2 NCAAB, 11-4 NBA runs.
They do post all picks in their records pages shortly after the games start, if you'd like to check for record accuracy.
Full card for Friday:
NCAAB
SDSU vs Alabama Over 136 (top)
Houston -7
Princeton +10
Xavier vs Texas Under 149.5 (top)
NBA
GS -4.5 (top)
Sacramento -4.5 (free)
70% last 90 picks overall (63-27). 9-2 NCAAB, 11-4 NBA runs.
They do post all picks in their records pages shortly after the games start, if you'd like to check for record accuracy.
