nightmare you are a cocky person who rubs people the wrong way but I think you are a good person underneath so I wish you luck.You may have an abrasive personality ,your spelling leaves something to be desired,and the bragging is a little much but you produce winners and you really know your stuff and thats all that matters.I personally would just post picks and let the winners speak for themself so when the inevitable cold streak comes people wont pounce on you,but what you said was right on so I wish you the best. good luck tonight
do any of you know about a phenomenon called "regression towards the mean"? no way he goes 50-15. I dont think we should fade him either because if he continues at a 60% rate he would be on a 46-19 run. but i wouldnt think of that as being too likely either. I think if Vegas made a line, 43-22 would be more realistic 65 game run that he is about to have.
dont get me wrong, he is on a great run...but it just sounds as if his picks are based too much off of 'whims'.
now that he is in the spotlight and everyone is watching his picks...dont put too much pressure on him to keep winning because the Statistical Gods are about to even things out! and i dont mean that in a harsh, evil way...just rational.
dont get me wrong, he is on a great run...but it just sounds as if his picks are based too much off of 'whims'.
now that he is in the spotlight and everyone is watching his picks...dont put too much pressure on him to keep winning because the Statistical Gods are about to even things out! and i dont mean that in a harsh, evil way...just rational.
I have a question for you math/statistics people...having taken more than a few levels of both in universities in my day...How do you explain individuals who produce in the 59% to 63% range over say 10+ years in sports wagering? What you need to understand is that "regression to the mean" is an expectation of a mathmatical hypothesis, and does not affect humans the same way it affects the rolling of dice thousands of times.bznofx19 said:
People can get hot and stay hot for years...or ...they can do just the opposite.
There is no mathmatical postulation you can put forth that says with a certainty that he will not go 50-15...or better.
Smacksmiter,
You are absolutley correct. One must actually know
what the "mean is before they can postulate regression.
When throwing dice or flipping coins, we know the "mean"
result over the long run.
If one is a long-run 60% handicapper (I should be so fortunate),
then in the long run any deviation will regress (or progress) to
the "mean" of 60% performance.
That is why % bankroll is optimal betting method, assuming that
you can determine "the mean" accurately in advance.
MP
You are absolutley correct. One must actually know
what the "mean is before they can postulate regression.
When throwing dice or flipping coins, we know the "mean"
result over the long run.
If one is a long-run 60% handicapper (I should be so fortunate),
then in the long run any deviation will regress (or progress) to
the "mean" of 60% performance.
That is why % bankroll is optimal betting method, assuming that
you can determine "the mean" accurately in advance.
MP
Guys For The Record I Havent Had A Losing Year In The Last 7 Years
Why Did U Think I Came In Here Like A Tiger Saying Im The Best?because I Knew I Was Simple As That
And Now I Have Done More Then Back It Up
Go Find Anyone Anywhere Who Has Gone On A 25-5 Run
Just Doesnt Happen!
Why Did U Think I Came In Here Like A Tiger Saying Im The Best?because I Knew I Was Simple As That
And Now I Have Done More Then Back It Up
Go Find Anyone Anywhere Who Has Gone On A 25-5 Run
Just Doesnt Happen!
I just read this...and apparently the guy's gone anyway, but regardless, I can't pass up the opportunity to comment on that last post. And I'll leave it at this:
7 years? If this guy is a day over 22, I won't masturbate for a year. But only if he promises to go back to 3rd grade. The amount of people in this country that are functionally illiterate is astounding. Shit is an epidemic.
7 years? If this guy is a day over 22, I won't masturbate for a year. But only if he promises to go back to 3rd grade. The amount of people in this country that are functionally illiterate is astounding. Shit is an epidemic.
First, no one ran him off. If he left, he left on his own. Second, if he would have just pushed the 'improper post' or 'report post' button that is available and was explained to him rather than egg on the haters by jawing back then his thread would have stayed in the NBA forum. He didn't do that. He turned his own thread into a flame war and the place for that is the rubber room.
If NightMare would have reported problem posts the way we should then his threads, crazy they might have been, would have been devoid of hate as the haters would have been warned and then post reviewed and then banned.
NightMare, you can come back. You do have to follow a few groundrules. Management/Moderators don't have some weird desire to see you quit although they won't allow flame festivals to rage in the wrong places. You have to control yourself just as you expect others to control themselves.
I have no problem with you posting and I hope you continue. Sorry that things upset you. I can assure you, outside of a few angry folk, you are welcome on here and you can call yourself whatever you like. We all have our ways. However, again, if you would have reported the bashing posts in your thread without retaliating in other ways, your thread would be right where you want it and we'd all be going "Damn...how long can he keep this up?!!" So, good luck where ever you go and just know that you can post safely at the Rx with just a little effort. tulsa
If NightMare would have reported problem posts the way we should then his threads, crazy they might have been, would have been devoid of hate as the haters would have been warned and then post reviewed and then banned.
NightMare, you can come back. You do have to follow a few groundrules. Management/Moderators don't have some weird desire to see you quit although they won't allow flame festivals to rage in the wrong places. You have to control yourself just as you expect others to control themselves.
I have no problem with you posting and I hope you continue. Sorry that things upset you. I can assure you, outside of a few angry folk, you are welcome on here and you can call yourself whatever you like. We all have our ways. However, again, if you would have reported the bashing posts in your thread without retaliating in other ways, your thread would be right where you want it and we'd all be going "Damn...how long can he keep this up?!!" So, good luck where ever you go and just know that you can post safely at the Rx with just a little effort. tulsa
