Friday*** I Am Vegas's Nightmare,the One They Fear,25-5 Last 30***

[Smacksmiter]

do any of you know about a phenomenon called "regression towards the mean"? no way he goes 50-15. I dont think we should fade him either because if he continues at a 60% rate he would be on a 46-19 run. but i wouldnt think of that as being too likely either. I think if Vegas made a line, 43-22 would be more realistic 65 game run that he is about to have.

dont get me wrong, he is on a great run...but it just sounds as if his picks are based too much off of 'whims'.

now that he is in the spotlight and everyone is watching his picks...dont put too much pressure on him to keep winning because the Statistical Gods are about to even things out! and i dont mean that in a harsh, evil way...just rational.

I have a question for you math/statistics people...having taken more than a few levels of both in universities in my day...How do you explain individuals who produce in the 59% to 63% range over say 10+ years in sports wagering? What you need to understand is that "regression to the mean" is an expectation of a mathmatical hypothesis, and does not affect humans the same way it affects the rolling of dice thousands of times.

People can get hot and stay hot for years...or ...they can do just the opposite.

There is no mathmatical postulation you can put forth that says with a certainty that he will not go 50-15...or better.

 

[thenightmare]

i agree smack very well said,we are humans not dice or robots

 

[haydom]

who the hell cares about this kids personality i don't care who he bashes or bashes him just keep throwing the winners out there because that is why i am here and it is appreciated.

 

[MathProf]

Smacksmiter,

You are absolutley correct. One must actually know
what the "mean is before they can postulate regression.

When throwing dice or flipping coins, we know the "mean"
result over the long run.

If one is a long-run 60% handicapper (I should be so fortunate),
then in the long run any deviation will regress (or progress) to
the "mean" of 60% performance.

That is why % bankroll is optimal betting method, assuming that
you can determine "the mean" accurately in advance.

MP

 

[HARDROCKSPORTS]

you have a crazy style but WTF..keep posting winners.

anymore plays for tonight HAPPY HR starts soon..:money:

 

[thenightmare]

Thanks For The Support Guys

Yes My Style Is Raw And Bold But I Do Walk The Walk

If U Dont Like The Style Dont Take The Picks!

 

[thenightmare]

More Plays Soon Hang Tight,running The #s

 

[jbc]

if he keeps picking winners, who cares what he says.

 

[bucsfan67]

Alright guys, i cleaned all the BS out of this thread, now LETS KEEP IT THAT WAY.....If you dont like this guy's style, his picks, his attitude, or whatever, i have a great idea, DONT READ THE THREAD.....If you feel your life wont be complete without saying something bad about him, then do it in the rubber room, there is a copy of the thread there, DO NOT DO IT HERE......


Nightmare, a little advice to you as well,

(1) NOBODY CARES what you did before you got here, your 7 winning years, are BS to us.....Cuz anyone can say that......

(2) Quit telling us you are gonna make history, and no one has ever gone 25-5, BS, trust me THEY HAVE......I do have a "little experience" in the handicapping department, so you arent talking to a novice here....everyone gets hot and cold

(3) Dont respond to the negative posts, just "report" them with the report icon, we will handle it.....If you take part, the whole thread is gonna be moved, and from my experience with this "style" of capper, you guys HATE to have your thread moved, and lose any attention you might get....

(4) Do NOT TRY AND SOLICIT other posters to "contact" you like you did here in this thread, if you do, your thread will be relegated to Site Promotions for good....

(5) Just post your plays, and let the plays talk for you....If you win, the followers will come, and the praise will follow, beleive me, I KNOW OF WHAT I SPEAK...:toast:



Hope none of this was unclear, because we're not keep going through this everyday........

Thanks, and if u have any questions email me at bucsfan67@therx.com and i will try to answer them for you..

 

[thenightmare]

2 team 7 point teaser -150

detroit-.5/phoenix -2..............5*

 

[thenightmare]

boston/portland under 185..........6*

 

[Bennyshoe]

Thanks Bucs.

I haven't been reading the clogging bashing posts in your threads this whole time. I just look for your picks and that's it.

That should be the main focus. If you keep picking winners you will gain respect. Who cares how you pick (ML or not) them as long as they are winners.

Good luck and hope you stay hot.

 

[thenightmare]

Boston -3 1st half ........5*

 

[thenightmare]

thanks superbowl

 

[SoflyMatt]

Whats up with the Denver Game......Line moved alot. Comments?

 

[thenightmare]

ny/no under 186.5.........................7*

 

[thenightmare]

softymatt must be due to injuries....goodluck

 

[SoflyMatt]

R U still Liking Toronto......by the way......I love that Boston/Portland U

 

[thenightmare]

yes still likeing toronto

 

[thenightmare]

adding 1 unit

boston/portland under is now........7*