Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Friday
The Giants came through as F5 dogs on the diamond, but the Broncos NFLx Bonus Play missed. So 1-1 on the Thursday comps, but at least a small profit in the process.
The Friday comp play is on one of this evening’s college games. Note this will NOT be a personal service play. As explained previously, as I’ll be posting 6-7 free football plays in this space each week, they can’t all be personal service plays. I’ll assume most of you can understand that if I did that, there would be little need for anyone to buy my plays or packages. I’ll definitely be posting 2-3 actual plays each week, but there will also be games such as this one, where I like the side but it just didn’t quite make the final cut. I will, of course, be logging these plays for the Bonus Play ledger. Just to avoid confusion though, I’ll keep the opinions plays separate from the games that are on my card. Tonight’s game falls into that opinion category.
151 KANSAS STATE at 152 STANFORD 9:00 PM
Take: KANSAS STATE +15
Bill Snyder’s 2015 Kansas State team was beset by injuries and some subpar QB play. Gotta figure there’s improvement on both counts this season. Even in the midst of what was clearly a down year for the Wildcats, they were a competitive team for the most part. I definitely expect improvement from the Wildcats this season, although this is a very difficult opening week assignment. From a spread standpoint, Snyder plus doubles is take or leave it alone, he’s too good a coach to give that much to. But I’m still skeptical about their offense, and therefore the ability to stay in if they happen to fall behind early.
I’m also curious to see how Stanford HC David Shaw approaches games with a big time Heisman candidate in Christian McCaffrey. Shaw has been conservative by nature but did open things up some last season with the very heady Kevin Hogan at QB. With much less experience under center this season, I wonder if Shaw goes back to his old tight collar ways.
As a fan, I’m hoping Shaw plays the role of bully when the opportunity arises. McCaffrey is one of the most exciting college players I’ve ever seen, and I want to see him given every chance to win the Heisman. That’s not going to be easy for a variety of reasons, so it behooves Shaw to try and get his superstar as much positive notice as possible. I just don’t know if he’ll do that.
Stanford is the better team and if the QB play is good, this will be a very tough squad to compete with, much less pull the upset against. That’s the case tonight, as even if Kansas State plays its best game, I doubt that it will be enough to win outright. My projected line is right about where the books have it, as I made the Cardinal -14. But I certainly lean to the visiting Wildcats on the strength of Snyder and the belief that the underdog might be a shade underrated, even on my personal power rankings.
So while this just missed the cut as a personal play, it’s what I’d classify as a decent lean, and with the line now above the tw0-TD level, Kansas State would be the side I’d favor at +15.