Dinero Talks Preseason Week 3
Tony Mejia
Bad-Beat Bears nab Preseason Week 2 cover
With the clock about to slip inside 10 seconds, Connor Shaw dove head-first to get a first down on 4th-and-10, extending a drive that had no business being extended by sacrificing his body to gain 11 yards at New England in the closing seconds of a game most would describe as “meaningless.”
The Bears had already picked up one fourth-down conversion on the drive, the final one in a 22-13 game that the Patriots backups gained control of after Chicago won the first quarter 11-0. In that sense, they were already feeling good about themselves, which made what happened at the end greedy.
Chicago called timeout following the Shaw scramble, set up a short out route to get closer for the final play with four seconds left and scored when Shaw hit converted quarterback B.J. Daniels on a 22-yard heave that was placed perfectly enough that he made two defenders look bad.
The play didn’t make the initial AP recap, which covered Tom Brady’s absence, Jimmy Garoppolo’s work and Jay Cutler’s improvement from the preseason opener. For bettors, the swing meant just as much as Malcolm Butler’s pick of Russell Wilson in Super Bowl XLIX. New England laying three, or Chicago plus-3 if you’re feeling blessed, was decided by Shaw finding rookie Darrin Peterson for a 2-point conversion (!) with no time on the clock.
'Under' bettors were also toast, as the 'over' came in on the final touchdown.
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QBs debuts highlight Week 3 exhibition slate
One day, that type of bad beat will be the lead of every game recap distributed around the world, but we’re still at the point where people will admonish you and say “you shouldn’t bet on the preseason.”
And miss this?
Miss a two-point conversion being returned the other way to swing the winner in Baltimore-Indianapolis with minutes left to play?
Over the next decade-plus, I expect we’ll see references to the line and total continue to gain acceptance as a significant part of the action. The day is coming where we’ll see those colorful USA Today charts documenting national profits and losses is inevitable. Ironically, the fact the NFL continues to turn its nose up at the impact wagering has on its product while embracing fantasy is moronic since it makes the preseason far more watchable.
Here’s a look at Thursday and Friday’s games in Week 3 of the NFL exhibition schedule, the one that matters most since it’s utilized as a dress rehearsal and typically features starters working into the second half:
Thursday
Falcons at Dolphins: Pressure for Ryan Tannehill to finally get it this year leaves first-year coach Adam Gase with no real grace period. Thus far, Miami has looked rough in the red zone and it comes off a blowout loss at Dallas that had few bright spots. We could see boos early at the newly-renamed Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida. The Falcons are 2-0 thus far and will unleash Matt Ryan for at least a half.
Cowboys at Seahawks: Rookie Dak Prescott has been the preseason’s breakout star, so it will be fun to see how he fares up in Seattle, where the 12th Man will be in midseason form with Dallas in town. Wilson has gotten in a nice amount of work over the first two games, but it’s an important test for TCU’s Trevone Boykin. The rookie faces his hometown team hoping to keep Seattle for looking elsewhere for a veteran backup quarterback.
Friday
Patriots at Panthers: Brady was excused from Monday’s practice due to a personal issue, so don’t hold your breath on seeing him here either. Rob Gronkowski’s last preseason game came in 2012, so this one will be heavy on Carolina starters against New England backups. Garoppolo may get a full three quarters, although Bill Belichick is liable to give rookie Jacoby Brissett an extended look since he tends to march to his own drum this time of year.
Bills at ‘Skins: After taking last week’s game off, Kirk Cousins is expected to play into the third quarter here. Buffalo has been besieged by injuries this offseason, but comes off a 21-0 win over the Giants and typically pulls no punches defensively in any preseason game, much less the third one.
Browns at Bucs: Cleveland is excited that Robert Griffin III has done some really nice things this preseason, hitting big plays and showing it is possible for him to slide early enough to avoid unnecessary contact. The Bucs are debuting at home this preseason and are 7-23 at Raymond James Stadium over the past three years including exhibitions.
Steelers at Saints: Veteran Ben Roethlisberger has yet to play this preseason but will get his first taste of action in New Orleans. The Saints have lost a pair of road games thus far, so they’ll be looking for improvement against a Pittsburgh squad that went 0-2 at home over the first two weeks, getting shut out by Philadelphia last Friday.
Packers at 49ers: In a significant development, Aaron Rodgers opened the week taking all the snaps with the rest of the starters, which means it’s likely he’ll line up under center for the first time since last year’s playoff loss at Arizona. Blaine Gabbert has built a nice lead on Colin Kaepernick in the race to start at QB for San Francisco, but Chip Kelly is expected to get his first look at Kap in game action here. He’s been resting a “dead arm” thus far.
Saturday
Chiefs at Bears: The last time Chicago played at Soldier Field, it was manhandled by the Denver defense and failed to score. Jay Cutler got his first group going in New England and will work into the second half here, so if the Bears fail to score again, there will be serious cause for concern. The Chiefs are 0-2, but have lost a pair of one-point game and seen Alex Smith look terrific thus far, directing a pair of touchdown drives while going 12-for-16 for 173 yards and two TDs. Although Andy Reid doesn’t put much stock in preseason results, Kansas City went 4-0 last year and continues to answer the bell with a competitive approach.
Eagles at Colts: Rookie Carson Wentz started throwing again after being sidelined by a rib fracture, but he’s not playing here and may not get another chance this preseason. Chase Daniel hasn’t really pushed Sam Bradford, so this second half will be important for him to make some inroads. Andrew Luck played for the first time since last November on Saturday, completing all eight of his passes. Philadelphia has been stingy thus far, allowing just nine points over eight quarters and forcing numerous turnovers.
Lions at Ravens: Baltimore has won four of its last five preseason home games, but the Lions might be happy to be playing this one at M&T Bank Stadium since they were booed mercilessly by their own fans last week. Between turnovers and penalties, Detroit gave the paying customers plenty of ammo, so they’ll look for a better effort here as Matthew Stafford tries to continue operating at a high level despite shoddy offensive line play. The Ravens have held Joe Flacco back and were snake-bit by injuries last year, so they’ve picked up wins despite taking the cautious approach thus far.
Giants at Jets: This year’s Snoopy Bowl will be the first without Tom Coughlin since 2003, and although Ben McAdoo is right to downplay its significance, he’s coming off a 20-0 loss up in Buffalo and is in the wrong city to preach patience in. New York has been outscored 37-10 and its offensive line has often looked inept. The Jets have had their issues too, but Bryce Petty’s dramatic improvement to push Geno Smith for the No. 2 job has been an interesting development. If nothing else, it cements how shaky Smith is and how important it was to team stability to re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick, who will be joined in the backfield by Matt Forte for the first time. Todd Bowles won this annual battle as a rookie head coach, 28-18.
Titans at Raiders: After spending the first two weeks of the exhibition season on the road, Oakland will debut at home and should again showcase Derek Carr, who played the bulk of the first half in Green Bay. Jack Del Rio has taken a long look at his regulars thus far, so Tennessee should get a great indication of where it stands after this one. Although they’re just 1-1, the Titans have seen Marcus Mariota go 14-for-15 with an interception his lone mistake. Rookie Tajae Sharpe, a fifth-round pick out of UMass, has been the team’s leading receiver. Reigning Heisman Trophy recipient Derrick Henry has also looked sharp in tandem with DeMarco Murray. What’s real and what isn’t? We should get a better indication in what looks to be one of this week’s most compelling matchups given the young talent all over the field.
Rams at Broncos: Unheralded second-year QB Trevor Siemian is getting another chance to start, which bodes well for his chances of ultimately winning this three-man to find Peyton Manning’s successor. Mark Sanchez has disappointed with familiar-looking turnovers, while rookie Paxton Lynch has displayed flashes of brilliance but ideally wouldn’t immediately be thrown into the fire. Los Angeles looks like it will also play it safe with its investment, likely turning to Case Keenum, who has started 10-for-12 in running with the starters. Jarred Goff will take the reins eventually, but hasn’t looked ready. Oddsmakers have Denver as this week’s biggest favorite (-5).
Sunday
Chargers at Vikings: Minnesota sat Teddy Bridgewater last week due to a sore shoulder and he didn’t throw a pass on Monday, so it isn’t likely that we’ll see him here. Mike Zimmer managed to improve to 10-1 in exhibition play and is 4-0 in Minneapolis, so don’t be surprised if the Vikings ride veteran Shaun Hill and rookie Joel Stave to another win. Philip Rivers has led the Chargers to a score on his only drive this season, took last week off and may not see the normal extended action here. Kellen Clemens is trying to hold off Zach Mettenberger and rookie Mike Bercovici for the backup gig and may wind up seeing the most action. Despite Bridgewater’s likely absence, the Vikings (-4) still opened as the third-heaviest favorite this week.
Cardinals at Texans: The Carson Palmer-led first-team offense came up empty on three drives in San Diego last week and is just 7-for-13 this preseason with an interception. He may not have all his weapons again here with Larry Fitzgerald (knee) and John Brown (concussion) just getting back in the mix, so it remains to be seen how long Bruce Arians exposes him and that first group. J.J. Watt won’t play at all this preseason after back surgery, but the defense has allowed an average of 11.0 points per game in wins over the 49ers and Saints. Brock Osweiler made his home debut last week, throwing a touchdown and interception while going 12-for-19, so Texans fans should get another long look at their new QB here.
