Friday 7/18/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Yonkers: Friday 7/18 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS


MEET STATS: 208 - 781 / $1,302.30 BEST BETS: 16 - 65 / $63.00

Best Bet: HOT LIST (12th)

Spot Play: GRAIN OF TRUTH (2nd)



Race 1

(5) LOCKLOADNEXPLODE just got up for win honors last week. Gelding is good enough to take another. (4) DOUBLESHOTASCOTCH came close for the victory last time around; threat. (1) DANCING IN TERROR should do much better from the fence.

Race 2

(5) GRAIN OF TRUTH closed well for the show spot in his last try. Trotter can move forward at his best. (1) LONG STORY SHORT gets serious post relief; main danger. (4) PEAKS AND VALLEYS got the job done at Philly in his recent outing.

Race 3

(4) PUTNAMS ATTACK Gelding is knocking at the door and is very capable of grabbing his fourth score of the year tonight. (1) TALKTOMECOURAGE N has speed and moves back to the rail; dangerous. (5) SOUTHWIND CHASE can be a factor with these.

Race 4

(1) PERMANENT JOY moves to the rail slot and maybe that's what he needs to boss these trotters. (2) VIBE BLUE CHIP Meadows invader has good speed and Sears signs on to drive; major player. (5) BLACKTUXWHITESOCKS was second best in his last trip.

Race 5

(2) ABOMINABLE SNOWPAN showed tactical speed and with the right trip, this gelding can make tonight a winning one. (3) MEETBEHINDTHEBARN took the pocket route home to victory last time out. (4) HOT RODDY gets post relief; watch out.

Race 6

(8) MONKEY ON MY WHEEL Sharp pacing mare got it done last week. Wheels right back and should keep on his winning ways. (1) ICOMMANDMYSPIRIT retains the rail slot and could be a contender in here. (3) VIRGIN MARY could land a share of the purse.

Race 7

(6) THERAPUTIC has put in two sharp victories in a row. Can top these despite the rise in class. (2) NEIGHSAY HANOVER got the job done via the pocket route last time out. (1) IMA QUE T should do better from the rail.

Race 8

(2) DEWYCOLORINTHELINE Very consistent trotter is very capable of moving forward. (8) CORAGGIOSO retains the 8-hole off his latest score. (4) TOBER Sharp in victory in his recent outing; watch out again.

Race 9

(5) ROCKAVELLIAN has put in three sharp efforts and has every right to get back on the winning track. (3) FUTURE CHARACTER has wheeled off two straight victories. (2) LUCKY LUCKY LEO can have a say with this group.

Race 10

(5) UF DRAGONS QUEEN Pacing miss has good early zip and now is back at Yonkers. Can make tonight a winning one at her best. (2) SIR LEHIGH Z TAM should fare well from the 2-hole. (4) LETS GO HIGHER gets the luck of the draw and is not out of this.

Race 11

(6) MUSCOLO has showed signs of life in his last two tries. Gelding could best this group with the right trip. (5) FORTUNISTA has tactical speed and could contend in here. (8) WISENHEIMER moves down in class but draws badly; maybe.

Race 12

This might be a good spot for (5) HOT LIST to get back into the swing of things. (1) FASHION MYSTERY Drops in class and move to the 1-hole; threat. (4) HANDSOFFMYCOOKIE should be right square in the mix.

 

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#1 Sports

Friday's free selection

Oakland Athletics - 155

 

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Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY

Take ATLANTA (Santana)-140 over Philadelphia

 

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Totals4U

Friday's Free Selection

Seattle Mariners/Los Angeles Angels under 7 1/2

 

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Dave Cokin

Friday Bonus Play 9:40 PM MLB

(961) CHICAGO CUBS at (962) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Take: (961) CHICAGO CUBS +129

I’m trying to recall the last time I even gave strong consideration to backing Edwin Jackson. It’s been awhile, that’s for sure, and with good reason as Jackson resides in the very bottom tier of big league starting pitchers. But this is one time where Jackson is on equal footing or perhaps even better as he takes on Trevor Cahill.

Let’s call it straight, I’m not really playing on Jackson here. I don’t see how it’s possible to make a case to do so. But I do like what I’m seeing out of the Cubs. They aren’t very good yet, but they’re playing very hard and there is some clear improvement. Credit first-year skipper Rich Renteria and some young talent that can’t be accused of not giving it their all on a daily basis.

I’m not so sure I can say that about the Diamondbacks. This team started the season flat in those two games against the Dodgers in Australia back in March, and I don’t see where things have changed. Whether or not the Snakes have underachieved is hard to say. They just weren’t any good to begin with and there’s absolutely zero doubt in this observer’s mind that they’re going to make a desperately needed overhaul of the current roster.

It’s interesting to note that while the teams have nearly identical records, the Cubs are 41 runs better in differential than the Diamondbacks. This amplifies the opinion expressed earlier. The Cubs might lose more than they win, but they battle for nine innings almost every game. I don’t believe the same can be said for this Diamondbacks entry.

That’s really the essence of this opinion. Jackson is awful, but Cahill was perhaps even worse before he got sent to Reno. The veteran righty had a couple of okay starts for the Aces in terms of keeping runners from crossing home plate. But his walk rate was still terrible, so that indicates to me there’s a good chance he’s going to pick up right where he left off the last time we saw in a DBacks uniform. I’ll give the home team a slight edge in the bullpen, and indeed of this is close at the finish, Arizona probably has a bit of an advantage. But there’s nothing I can see to justify the Diamondbacks being in the 7/5 chalk neighborhood.

At the current price, I see value on the Cubs. I think they’re at least the equal of Arizona even with Jackson throwing, and it’s worth mentioning this is the least home field advantage in all of MLB this season. I’m siding with the visiting Cubs to grab themselves an underdog win this evening.

 

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Atlantic Sports

Friday's Free Selection

Mariners + 130

 

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Golden Dragon Sports

Bonus Play

Baltimore Tillman +153

 

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Winner

Tampa Bay Cobb -134

 

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The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Friday

DETROIT (Sanchez) -150 over Cleveland

 

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Friday

Arizona Diamondbacks - 135

 

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John Anthony Sports

Friday's Free Selection

Los Angeles Angels - 140

 

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Jim Feist

MLB Comp Pick for Friday, July 18, 2014: 8:10 PM ET

MLB (971) TAMPA BAY RAYS VS (972) MINNESOTA TWINS

Take: (971) TAMPA BAY RAYS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Friday, July 18, 2014 is in the MLB contest between the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins. Minnesota has home field, but they have a losing home record. Starter Kyle Gibson has faced Tampa Bay once this season and they blasted him, with a 21.00 ERA against the Rays! A lack of quality pitching is why the Twins are 10-25 in their last 35 during Game 1 of a series. The Twins are 44-91 against the American League East and face a resurgent Tampa Bay squad with plenty of talent. Tampa Bay is 8-1 on the road and has got Alex Cobb back on track, 2-1 his last three starts. The Rays are 19-7 in the last 26 meeting, including 6-1 here in Minnesota. Your Bonus Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

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Art Aronson

Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers

1* Bonus Play on the Detroit Tigers -155

I think the Tigers are worth the price of admission in their first game back from the All-Star break. The visiting Cleveland Indians turn to Trevor Bauer (3-4, 3.84 ERA) who is coming off his best start of the season; the right-hander pitched 6 2/3 scoreless innings and struck out a career-high ten on Sunday against the Chicago White Sox, but did not get a decision in the 3-2 victory. Bauer is 1-0 with a 4.38 ERA in two starts against Detroit, both this season. The Tigers will respond with starter Anibal Sanchez (6-3, 3.04 ERA); the right-hander is 4-2 with a 2.34 ERA in eight lifetime meetings against Cleveland and is 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA in his last four in Detroit. Note that the Tigers are 12-8 in games versus Cleveland in the Motor City the past three seasons. And note Detroit has been riding the hot hitting of J.D Martinez the past few weeks, the slugger already has seven multi-hit games in July and is batting nearly .346 on the season with 43 RBIs. Detroit won five of six going into the break and I think it carries the momentum over to start the second half; consider a look at the home side.

AAA Sports

 

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Brandon Shively

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins

Bonus Play Over 7.5 -120

Tampa Bay (Cobb) @ Minnesota (Gibson)-----I like this game to go OVER the Total with Cobb and Gibson on the mound this Friday night. The OVER is 3-0 this season when these two teams meet up, and both teams come into this game swinging the bats in the month of July. The Twins are ranked 3rd in the AL in runs scored at 5.1 runs a game, while the Rays are hitting .270 in July scoring 4.6 runs a game. The OVER is 4-1 in the Twins last 5 home games vs. a right handed starter, while the OVER is 4-0-1 in Tampa Bay's last 5 road games.

Cobb will take the rubber for Tampa and the OVER is 4-0 in his last 4 starts. Cobb usually doesn't make it past the 6th inning so we will more than likely be looking at the Ray's bullpen to toss the last 3 or so innings, which can lead to an extra 1 or 2 runs.

Gibson will get the nod for the Twins and this guy has been inconsistent this season. In his last start before the Break, he allowed 0 runs in a start vs. the Mariners, but actually allowed 8 base runners. So it's safe to say he dodged a few bullets as the Mariners left too many runners on base. Gibson is not at all a strikeout pitcher as he pitches more to contact and hopes for groundballs. He has had 6 starts this season where he has allowed 4 ER or more. One of those starts was vs. the Rays when he gave up 10 hits and 7 ER on 4/22 as the Rays won the game 7-3. So it's safe to say I think that Tampa should be able to get to this guy again tonight. While they might not put up 7 runs, I expect 3-4 runs to be scored off of Gibson.

7.5 runs in any AL game is low in my opinion, especially considering that neither pitcher has any resemblance to an 'ace' resume. One inning where the pitcher gets in a jam and gives up 3 or 4 runs, and this game goes OVER easily. I have no problem issuing this game out as a complimentary selection on this Friday Night.

 

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Rocky Atkinson (Rocketman)

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox -146

The Houston Astros travel to Chicago to take on the White Sox on Friday night. Houston is 40-56 overall this year while the Chicago White Sox come in with a 45-51 overall record on the season. Houston is 13-49 last 3 years when playing in July. Houston is 1-7 this year after allowing 10 runs or more. Chicago White Sox are 7-0 this year as a home favorite of -150 to -175. Houston is allowing 5.9 runs per game their past seven games overall where opponents have a .325 team batting average. Houston bullpen is terrible on the road with a 5.72 ERA this year. Chicago White Sox are allowing only 3.4 runs per game their past seven games overall where opponents have a combined team batting average of only .218. Scott Feldman is 4-6 with a 4.33 ERA overall this year and 1-1 with a 5.71 ERA his last 3 starts. Jose Quintana is 5-7 with a 3.24 ERA overall this year, 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA at home this season and 1-0 with a 1.25 ERA his last 3 starts. Quintana has 107 strike outs this year compared to only 34 walks. Quintana is 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA in all his starts vs Houston in his career and his team is 3-0 during those starts. We'll recommend a small play on the Chicago White Sox tonight!

 

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Int Picks

1* Under 8 Texas Rangers/Toronto Blue Jays

 

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MLB

Friday, July 18

Trend Report

7:05 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. WASHINGTON
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Milwaukee is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee

7:05 PM
COLORADO vs. PITTSBURGH
Colorado is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games

7:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. NY YANKEES
Cincinnati is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home

7:07 PM
TEXAS vs. TORONTO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Texas's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games at home

7:08 PM
CLEVELAND vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Cleveland

7:10 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. BOSTON
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games at home
Boston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home

7:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. MIAMI
San Francisco is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

7:35 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia

8:10 PM
HOUSTON vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chi White Sox's last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 9 games

8:10 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. MINNESOTA
Tampa Bay is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home

8:15 PM
LA DODGERS vs. ST. LOUIS
LA Dodgers are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of LA Dodgers's last 22 games on the road
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games

9:40 PM
CHI CUBS vs. ARIZONA
Chi Cubs are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games

10:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. LA ANGELS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games
LA Angels are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing Seattle
LA Angels are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games at home

10:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. OAKLAND
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

10:10 PM
NY METS vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Mets's last 10 games when playing on the road against San Diego
NY Mets are 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
San Diego is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

 

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MLB
Short Sheet

Friday, July 18

National League Baseball Betting Trends

Colorado at Pittsburgh, 7:05 ET
De La Rosa: 21-2 TSR after a loss
Liriano: PITTSBURGH 14-23 after having lost 2 of their last 3 games

Milwaukee at Washington, 7:05 ET
Lohse: 6-0 TSR when the total is 7 or less
Strasburg: 3-9 TSR against NL Central opponents

San Francisco at Miami, 7:10 ET
Bumgarner: 13-4 TSR on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5
Eovaldi: MIAMI 8-22 after 3 or more consecutive road games

Philadelphia at Atlanta, 7:35 ET
Burnett: 13-37 TSR as a road underdog of +125 to +175
Santana: ATLANTA 118-72 against division opponents

LA Dodgers at St Louis, 8:15 ET
Haren: 57-81 TSR when the money line is +125 to -125
Lynn: 50-24 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5

Chicago at Arizona, 9:40 ET
Jackson: CHICAGO CUBS 18-12 after allowing 8 runs or more
Cahill: ARIZONA 4-10 TSR as a home favorite of -125 to -175

NY Mets at San Diego, 10:10 ET
Colon: 21-13 TSR in road games
Kennedy: 8-16 TSR as a favorite


American League Baseball Betting Trends

Texas at Toronto, 7:05 ET
Darvish: TEXAS 17-34 when the money line is +125 to -125
Dickey: 21-14 TSR as an underdog

Cleveland at Detroit, 7:05 ET
Bauer: CLEVELAND 32-15 UNDER after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less
Sanchez: 61-37 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10

Kansas City at Boston, 7:10 ET
Shields: 6-0 TSR on the road when the money line is +125 to -125
Buchholz: BOSTON 19-25 after a win

Tampa Bay at Minnesota, 8:10 ET
Cobb: 11-2 TSR in road games after a win
Gibson: MINNESOTA 17-38 after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

Houston at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 ET
Feldman: 23-10 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5
Quintana: CHI WHITE SOX 20-11 OVER after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

Seattle at LA Angels, 10:05 ET
Iwakuma: 20-10 TSR against division opponents
Weaver: 83-35 TSR as a home favorite

Baltimore at Oakland, 10:05 ET
Tillman: 7-0 TSR as a road underdog of +125 to +150
Samardzija: 2-9 TSR in home games

Cincinnati at NY Yankees, 7:05 ET
Leake: CINCINNATI 26-18 after one or more consecutive overs
Phelps: 1-10 TSR when the total is 7 to 8.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

MLB

Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox

Kansas City Royals

Note: Royals: visiting team 14-6 in Shields starts this season, and Shields 23 strikeouts and 3 walks last three starts, and Shields 20-4 last twenty-four away team starts. Red Sox: Buchholz 1-5 last six home team starts in this series, and 6.79 ERA home this season. With the Royals 5-0 against the A.L. East behind Shields this season, look for more of the same this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.