MLB Daily Line Drive: Friday's Picks, Betting Odds and Analysis
Double-Play Picks
Washington Nationals at New York Mets (+130, 7.5)
The Nationals struck first in their big four-game set this weekend in New York, topping the Mets 8-3 on Thursday night and hope to extend their lead in the National League West even further when they send ace Max Scherzer to the mound for Game 2.
The Nats currently lead the NL East by 9.5 games ahead of the second-place Mets and while Washington’s powerful offense has been a big reason for their huge division lead, Scherzer and the the starters have been giving that offense a chance to win almost every game (what the bullpen does with those chances is another story).
Washington leads the major leagues in quality starts with 43 and its Scherzer leading the way for the Nats with 11 in his 13 starts this season and it doesn’t stop there for the dominant right-hander.
Scherzer is actually on pace to have a better season than his Cy Young campaign from last year. Scherzer is 7-4, with a 2.36 ERA and has already racked up a jaw-dropping 124 strikeouts to just 21 walks. Plus, hitters are only batting .175 against him this year.
Now the Mets did get to Scherzer for eight combined runs in back-to-back starts back in mid-April, but he’s been light’s out in his last four starts. He’s pitched to a 1.13 ERA and a ridiculous 0.576 WHIP, while striking out 47 to just five walks.
The Mets offense can hit some dingers and Steven Matz has been great for them as well, but Scherzer has been scary-good and laser focused, while keeping the ball out of the bullpen’s hands for as long as possible. The value is too good here.
Pick: Nationals -140
Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (-114, 8.5)
The Royals and Angels continue their four-game series in California in a matchup of two teams trying to claw themselves back into contention after slow starts.
Kansas City took the series opener 7-2 on Thursday night as their bats remained red-hot, as it was the fifth consecutive game scoring seven runs or more.
The Royals offense has really turned it around of late, while they rank 27th in runs per game at just 3.98, over the last 10 games they have plated 6.5 runs per game, with the Over going 8-1-1 in those contests and 7-0 in their last seven overall.
That lineup gets to go up against Jesse Chavez in Game 2 of the series and while the veteran right-hander has pitched better at home, he has mostly been inconsistent in 2017. Chavez is 5-6 with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.326 WHIP.
The Royals counter with a pitcher who has been just as inconsistent in Ian Kennedy, whose second season in Kansas City has not gone as well as the first.
The right-hander is 0-6 this season with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.288 WHIP over 11 starts and away from Kauffman Stadium the number get worse. He is 0-2 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.360 WHIP in five road starts.
Kennedy faces a lineup that is obviously downgraded without Mike Trout, but have performed admirably, scoring 5.3 runs per game over the last 10 games.
Pick: Over 8.5
Yesterday's Picks: 2-0
Season To Date: 63-53-7
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals (5-5, 2.95 ERA, $-109)
Despite a pedestrian 5-5 W/L record the Cardinals right-hander has been throwing fire all season. In his 13 starts this season he has thrown nine quality starts, all of those over his last 10 appearances. But this is streaking where what have you done for me lately is our motto.
“Little Pedro” took the mound last week and embarrassed the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, chucking a complete game four hitter, while striking out 11 and only walking one. Martinez and the Cardinals travel to Oriole Park at Camden Yards and are available as -122 road chalk against the Baltimore Orioles.
Slumping: Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox (2-8, 5.30 ERA, $-258)
It’s been a rough few starts for the White Sox left-hander and while Quintana was an All-Star in 2016, the ChiSox ace has done nothing but destroy his trade value this season. Currently sitting at 207th on Covers Starting Pitcher Money board.
Quintana has been lit up in his last three starts, allowing 11 earned runs over his last 13 innings (7.62 ERA) and has a shameful opponents on base percentage of .385. He returns to the rubber tonight in Toronto as big +151 road underdogs against the Blue Jays.
Friday's Top Trends
* Cardinals are 0-9 in their last nine road games vs. a right-handed starter. Cardinals -123 @ Orioles vs. righty Kevin Gausman.
* Under is 7-0 in Nationals last seven games vs. a left-handed starter. O/U: 7.5 vs. Mets lefty Steven Matz.
* Dodgers are 6-0 in Alex Wood's last 6 starts. Dodgers -170 @ Reds.
* Over is 7-0 in Royals last seven road games. O/U: 8.5 vs. Angels.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There are thunderstorms in the forecast at Camden Yards, 24 percent chance at first pitch escalating as high as 60 percent as the night progresses. The total is currently set at 9.
There is a chance of rain at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia where the Phillies are hosting the Diamondbacks. There is a 34 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms before the game starts, which might delay first pitch. As the night goes on the rain should end and overcast skies remain. The total is currently at 9.
According to the forecast, there will be a nice pitchers wind (10-14 miles per hour) blowing in from right field tonight at Rangers Ballpark for the matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers. The total is currently set at 10.
As usual, there will be a hitter’s wind of 11-13 miles per hour blowing straight out to center field at Oakland Coliseum for the matchup between the Yankees and Athletics. the total for this one is currently sitting at 8.
Ump Of The Day
Gary Cederstrom: Cederstrom will be behind the dish for tonight’s showdown at Coors Field as the Rockies host the Giants and that’s a promising sign for hitters as he has been one of MLB’s top OVER umpires so far this season.
In the 12 games he has been calling balls and strikes the OVER has cashed nine times (75 percent) and 4-0 when the total is above nine. The total for today is currently at 11. If this wasn’t enough bad news for Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela, Colorado is 0-6 in their last six games Cederstrom has been behind the plate.