Friday 5/16/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Friday, May 16

Trend Report

2:20 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CHI CUBS
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Chi Cubs are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

7:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PHILADELPHIA
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Philadelphia is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

7:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NY YANKEES
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

7:05 PM
NY METS vs. WASHINGTON
NY Mets are 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
NY Mets are 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Mets
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games on the road
Oakland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Cleveland's last 25 games when playing at home against Oakland

7:10 PM
DETROIT vs. BOSTON
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

8:05 PM
TORONTO vs. TEXAS
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
Toronto is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Texas is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home

8:10 PM
SEATTLE vs. MINNESOTA
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

8:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 7 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Chi White Sox

8:15 PM
ATLANTA vs. ST. LOUIS
Atlanta is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games

8:40 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. COLORADO
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Colorado's last 8 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games at home

9:40 PM
LA DODGERS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games at home

10:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. LA ANGELS
Tampa Bay is 2-3-1 SU in their last 6 games ,when playing LA Angels
Tampa Bay is 3-6-1 SU in its last 10 games ,
LA Angels5-1-1 SU in their last 7 games
LA Angels are 5-15-1 SU in their last 21 games ,when playing Tampa Bay

10:15 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Miami is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Miami
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Friday, May 16


Giants scratch Hudson due to hip ailment

With Tim Hudson coming off a season short-circuited by a broken right ankle, the Giants are keeping a close eye on veteran pitcher this year.

That cautious approach will keep the right-hander in the dugout Friday, as he was scratched from his scheduled start against the Miami Marlins because of a strained right hip.

Hudson will be replaced by right-hander Yusmeiro Petit, who earlier this season filled in for right-hander Matt Cain (cut on right index finger) for two starts. Petit, 2-1 with a 4.85 ERA, will attempt to give the Giants their third win in a row overall after they topped the Marlins 6-4 in Thursday's series opener.

Hudson's injury is not considered serious. In fact, he was seen running in the outfield before Thursday's game, trying to convince Giants manager Bruce Bochy that he was healthy enough to make the start.


McGowan heads to Blue Jays' bullpen to preserve arm

The feel-good story is over.

Dustin McGowan, the oft-injured Blue Jays right-hander who miraculously won a starting job at the end of spring training, was pulled from Toronto's rotation after eight starts. He went 2-2 with a 5.08 ERA and will work as a reliever moving forward.

The 32-year-old, who has undergone Tommy John surgery and multiple shoulder operations, simply wasn't recovering between starts the way he needed to and was worried the problem wouldn't go away.

In fact, he was concerned it could lead to another injury. So he informed the club and, after a discussion with manager John Gibbons, it was determined that McGowan was best suited to work out of the bullpen -- something he did last season.


Mejia emerges as front-runner for Mets' closer job

The most dangerous job this side of drumming for Spinal Tap -- closing for the New York Mets -- is once again up for grabs.

The most recent pitcher to serve as the Mets' closer, Kyle Farnsworth, suffered the baseball version of spontaneously self-combusting Wednesday when he was outrighted immediately after the Mets fell to the New York Yankees at Citi Field. Farnsworth had three saves in four opportunities, though he allowed three runs on seven hits and one walk in those appearances.

Farnsworth joins right-handers Bobby Parnell and Jose Valverde in the Mets' pile of discarded closers. Parnell blew out his elbow on Opening Day and underwent Tommy John surgery on April 8. Valverde converted his first two save chances before opening the door for Farnsworth by giving up eight runs (five earned) over a three-appearance stretch from April 12-19.


Rangers' Perez latest to face elbow surgery

The epidemic that is sweeping Major League Baseball appears to have claimed another victim.

Texas Rangers left-hander Martin Perez was diagnosed Thursday with a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow and expects to have Tommy John reconstruction surgery.

Perez and his agent plan to meet with the Rangers on Friday to discuss his options. If he decides to attempt to rehab the elbow, he would be out 10 to 12 weeks. Opting for surgery would mean a recovery period of 12 to 18 months.


Under bettors enjoy good day on diamond

Thursday was a good day for under bettors in the MLB. With 10 games taking place the under went 7-3 and only 6.5 runs averaged per game.

That keeps an overall under trend going recently on the diamond, with a 13-21-4 record between Tuesday and Thursday and have averaged 7.74 runs.


Angels' Hamilton returns to BP

Josh Hamilton took a step forward in his rehab Thursday.

The Los Angeles Angels left fielder took live batting practice for the first time since he sustained a torn ligament in his left thumb April 8.

Hamilton, who hurt his thumb on a head-first slide into first base in Seattle, likely will begin a rehab assignment in the next seven to 10 days. Barring any setbacks, he could return to the active roster by the end of May.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL
Short Sheet

Friday, May 16

Los Angeles Kings at Anaheim Ducks, 9:05 ET
LA Kings: 8-13 SU after having lost 3 of their last 4 games
Anaheim: 10-2 OVER after scoring 1 goal or less

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Belmont Park
Friday May 16
By Michael Dempsey

Weather: Cloudy with periods of rain. High around 70F. Winds SE at 15 to 25 mph. Rainfall around a quarter of an inch.


BEL Race 1 Md $30,000 (1:20 ET)

6 Mare and Cher 1-1
2 It's Easy 3-1
1 Cajun Wedding 4-1
5 Ballerina Bliss 8-1

Analysis: Mare and Cher chased a loose on the lead gate to wire winner over a speed friendly racing strip last out in her debut, settling for the runner up spot. She took a little play, sent off at 2-1 in a field of five. She drops a notch in class from the $40,000 level and looks quick enough to clear from her outside post. She does not need to move forward much off her last effort to get the job done against at this group. She is out of an Elusive Quality mare and should be able to handle a wet track if the rains come as forecast.

It's Easy is coming off a decent effort in a third place finish last out against state bred $16,000 foes. She did not have a great trip, pulling on the bit early while down long the inside. had to wait while getting steadied in traffic nearing the quarterpole and finished up well when clear. She has landed in the money in five of her seven career starts and is bred to like a wet track. She is stepping outside of the state bred ranks.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 6-5 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 1,2,6
TRI: no play


BEL Race 2 Md Sp Wt (1:51 ET)

8 Sward 9-2
5 Cat's Claw 5-2
9 High Heel Kitten 7-2
6 Queen's Parade 6-1

Analysis: Sward was off a beat slow and outrun in the early going, came with a good late run to finish fourth last out going nine furlongs on the grass at Keeneland. The winner of the race was Jane Peterson, who came back to bet Alw-1 foes in his next start at Churchill Downs on May 10. This guy has a nice pedigree, by Indian Charlie out of a stakes placed Galileo who dropped Grade 1 winner Lea ($709,618). She looks as if she will be able to handle the extra ground and a wet track if the rains come.

Cat's Claw made a mild late rally to finish fifth last out on poly at Keeneland in his first go off a five month layoff. She made three starts on turf last year including a fast closing second at the Big A two back. By Dynaformer out of a stakes placed Storm Cat mare, she should be tighter second off the bench and will appreciate the switch back to turf.

Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 5,6,8,9
TRI: 5,8 / 5,6,8,9 / 3,5,6,8,9


BEL Race 3 Clm $25,000N2L (2:22 ET)

4 Missile Nick 4-1 3-1
2 Horatio 3-1 5-2
6 Roaring Conquest 7-2 3-1
3 Jesses Giant Dunk 9-5

Analysis: Missile Nick was not a threat last out in a race taken off the turf against $40,000 starter allowance foes and drops into a softer spot here. Two back over a wet track the gelding dueled for the early lead and held on to the runner up spot in a good effort as the beaten chalk which was his first go against winners. The gelding owns a solid pace profile throughout and has run okay on wet tracks, landing in the money in three of four trips without a win.

Horatio pressed the early pace and did not have enough punch left late in a sixth place finish, exiting the same race as our top pick. The gelding broke his maiden in his previous outing against state bred $35,000 foes in his 13th career start. The gelding is usually right in the mix, landing in the money in 11 of his 14 career starts and this looks like a better spot facing non-winners of two. Not crazy about the likely short price and the switch to the bug.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,6
TRI: no play


BEL Race 4 Md Sp Wt (2:53 ET)

1 Greg's Intuition 5-1
3 Dusk to Dawn 3-1
6 Giantinthemoonlite 10-1
7 Majestic Guy 6-1

Analysis: Greg's Intuition was a decent third in his debut at Philly against open maiden and then last out shipped to the Big A and weakened to finish sixth after a wide trip in a highly graded race in his first go against state breds. Three have come out of the race to win next out including the winner Captain Serious, who beat state bred Alw-1 foes on April 26. She has put in a couple of good works including a bullet drill on April 28 and this guy has a decent off track pedigree.

Dusk to Dawn showed good early speed in his debut, dueling for the early lead before weakening to finish seventh. The colt comes back with blinkers added and his guy owns solid early and mid pace numbers. If he shakes loose he is a danger to take these gate to wire.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,6,7
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,6,7 / 1,2,3,6,7


BEL Race 5 Alw $62,000N1X (3:24 ET)

5 Princess Violet 6-5
3 Sister Margaret 9-5
1 Sweetest Side 6-1
6 Riveressed 12-1

Analysis: Princess Violet pressed the early pace and drew off smartly late to break her maiden in her second career start. The runner up Isabelle came back to graduate in her next outing on May 9 here. In her debut our top pick ran a game second behind repeat winner Size, who beat Alw-1 optional claimers in her next outing on April 27 at Aqueduct. She is bred to like a wet track.

Sister Margaret was a good looking maiden winner in her debut, sent off at 4-1 in a field of 10. She earned a speed fig good enough to win at this level and is a logical exacta threat in this race, which has the look of a chalky affair.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 3,5 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,4,5,6


BEL Race 6 Clm $40,000 (3:55 ET)

1 Persnickity 4-1
7 Lemon Song 8-1
9 Ezpz Lemon Squeeze 7-2
3 Bargaining Table 9-2

Analysis: Persnickity tracked the early pace and could not catch a loose on the lead gate to wire winner last out over yielding footing against $25,000 starter allowance foes. The winner was Princess Mara, who came back to beat state bred Alw-2 optional claimers in her next outing on May 3. The filly has landed in the money in seven of her 10 career starts on turf and has shown she can handle ground with some give to it which will be the case today if we are on turf.

Lemon Song exits the same race as our top pick where she checked in fifth at 3-1, which was her first start off a 6 1/2 month layoff. She put in three solid efforts over the turf here last fall including a win against restricted $35,000 claimers. She figures to move forward in her second start off the bench.

Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,3,7,9
TRI: 1,7 / 1,3,7,9 / 1,3,6,7,9


BEL Race 7 Clm $20,000N3L (4:26 ET)

2 Native Singer 7-2
3 Mystic Strike 2-1
6 Wise Guide 9-2
5 Stephen A 4-1

Analysis: Native Singer set the early fractions, got bumped at the eighth pole and weakened inside the final furlong to finish last of four against state bred Alw-2 optional claimers. He drops into a slightly softer spot here facing non-winners of three and he ran well in two of his other starts over off going. He ran well over the surface here last summer while still in the maiden ranks in a runner up finish. Looking for him to bounce back with a better effort here for the Gullo barn that has been sending out live runners at the meeting.

Mystic Strike came off a four month layoff last out, was five wide heading down the backstretch and bore out losing his rhythm. Two have come out of that race to win next out. He drops out of a open $50,000 into a non-winners of three for a $20,000 tag. He is bred to like a wet track and has a second and a third in two starts on off going. He owns back speed figs that are good enough to handle this group, but worried just how the price may go on this guy.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,5,6
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,5,6 / 2,3,4,5,6


BEL Race 8 OClm $80,000N3X (4:57 ET)

1 Strong Impact 3-1
5 Hear the Footsteps 2-1
2 Spring in the Sky 5-2
6 Morpheus 9-2

Analysis: Strong Impact gets the call if we stick to grass today. The gelding makes his first start since checking in third in the Bonapaw at Fair Grounds back in December. The winner of that race was Sum of the Parts, who came back to win a small stake at Sam Houston on his next outing. The gelding has done some of his best running over the turf here (19-5-5-2) and he has handled ground with some give to it.

Hear the Footsteps makes his first start since October for the Rice barn that is 20% winners with runners coming back off a +180 day layoff. The gelding won three in a row, all over the turf here last year including a win against Alw-2 optional claimers. He won her least May off a similar layoff.

Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,2,5
TRI: no play


BEL Race 9 Md Sp Wt (5:28 ET)

8 Bella Kateri 9-5
6 Chrysolite 12-1
5 Traipse in Utopia 15-1
12 Jilly Mac 6-1

Analysis: Bella Kateri put in a good effort tin her debut going six furlongs on poly at Keeneland, making a late run to finish third at 9-2. This gal should like the extra ground and the switch to the grass unless the rains come. She is by Tale of the Cat out of an Awesome Again mare that has dropped a pair of turf winners. She is also bred to like a wet track and is worth a look if this race is washed off the grass.

Chrysolite finished behind three of these she faces again today but was forced to check in traffic while down along the inside heading into the first turn and never got fully untracked. She came back with a bullet work and has a decent turf pedigree, by Freud out of a Notebook mare that has dropped four dirt winners but no turf winners to date, top earner stakes winner Freud's Notebook ($427,306).

Race Rating: $$$
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 5,6,8,12
TRI: 6,8 / 5,6,8,12 / 5,6,8,9,12



Good Luck today!
Please check all program numbers and post times before wagering.

Race Ratings:
$$$$: The strongest play of the day. Some days there will not be a race at this rating, but when there is, it's straight to the betting window.
$$$: These races are the best wagering opportunities of the day. I either have a strong opinion on my top pick or feel this is a great race for value in the exotics.
$$: These races are usually races where I do not have a strong opinion, or feel my top pick may end up going off at a short price. A moderate investment only.
$: These races are in most cases a pass. Usually races with short fields offering little value or just inscrutable. Small investment or pass.