SPORTS WAGERS
SAN DIEGO +103 over Miami
After defeating the Diamondbacks again last night, San Diego is now 4-2 at home and they remain undervalued, especially here with Trevor Cahill (RHP) starting. Cahill has yet to start at Petco this season but in two road starts covering 11 innings, he struck out 15 batters with an elite 18% swing and miss rate and also elite 52% groundball rate. When Cahill is healthy, he has always quietly been one of the most skilled pitchers in the game and he’s up to his old tricks again. In September of 2015 he posted 11.2 K’s/9, 2.3 BB’s/9 and a 60% groundball rate and his numbers this year after two starts are almost precisely the same. At age 29, Cahill and his current skill set makes for an extremely attractive play at home taking back a price but what this market sees is Cahill’s 0-2 record and 4.76 ERA. What we see is elite skills with a tremendous 2.82 xERA.
Adam Conley (LHP) comes into this start with a 1-1 record and a 3.75 ERA, which are superior to Cahill’s numbers on paper. That’s sweet because the wrong pitcher is favored. Coming into spring training, Conley seemed a certainty for the Marlins rotation despite a lackluster 2016 that featured a 4.71 xERA with weak skills and weak command. Then came spring training exhibition games and Conley could only muster a 6.94 ERA in 11-plus innings, casting doubt on his role. In any event, win or lose here, Conley is not a good option as the chalk. He has walked five batters in 12 frames with nine K’s but four of those K’s came against opposition pitchers. His fastball tops off at 89 MPH and he also has a weak 34%/50% groundball/fly-ball split. The fact that he's still in the rotation might speak more about the Marlins' alternatives than with Conley's abilities so put him on your fade list and keep him there until the market adjusts.
COLORADO -1½ +215 over San Fran
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. This is a continuation of our commitment to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park.
Seattle +113 over OAKLAND
The Mariners were a popular choice last night to beat Oakland with James Paxton (0.00 ERA after three starts) being a reasonable price against a starter, César Valdez, who hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2010 before last night’s start. Well, the A’s scored nine times in a 9-6 victory and now the market is not so anxious to get behind the Mariners again when it looks like Oakland has the superior starter. We are anxious to get behind the M’s because the starters do not concern us here.
The Mariners are high on our radar when taking back a price because their stock is low after winning just seven of their first 17 games. From our vantage point, this team will be well over .500 when the season ends. We’re suggesting that the Mariners are the only threat to beat Houston to win the AL West.
Prior to 2015, the Jack Zduriencik (Seattle’s GM) regime was an endless parade of designated hitters playing the outfield, second basemen converted to outfielders, Kendrys Morales acquisitions, rushed prospects, power obsessions, increasing paranoia, breakdowns in communication, and eventually near-anarchy but 2015 was going to be different. In lieu of outsmarting teams, the Mariners had finally acquiesced to trying to outspend them. Big-money free agents Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz were in place, Felix Hernandez was filled with a lust for vengeance from losing the Cy Young award to Corey Kluber and an 87-win roster was fine tuned. It was time. In 2015 the Mariners lost 86 games. Mike Zunino was allowed 386 plate appearances while producing a .196 TAv. Fernando Rodney wandered into the forest, literally and metaphorically. Zduriencik was fired. One month later, Jerry Dipoto took over as GM.
From a fan perspective, Dipoto says all the right things. He addresses spin rates, knows about swing plane adjustments, talks about psychological profiles, and is hip to every advanced analytical, Statcast-fueled defensive metric you can name. He talks like a combination of aw-shucks-guy-next-door and dazzlingly handsome, silver-tongued baseball huckster. If House Dipoto had a crest, it would be two piercingly intelligent blue eyes on a field of teal, with the house words “Hi great to meet you that’s a fine question now let me tell you about a report I read recently on the subject!”
The days of Mark Trumbo, Mike Morse, and Nelson Cruz starting in right field are gone, replaced by a crowded stable of quality defensive outfielders in Leonys Martin, Jarrod Dyson, Mitch Haniger, Guillermo Heredia, and Ben Gamel. The trade to acquire shortstop Jean Segura pairs him with Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager to form three-fourths of an elite infield. It was Dipoto and company who decided in the middle of last season to convert Edwin Diaz to relief, giving the team an elite, cost-controlled arm at a time when the reliever market exploded. Mitch Hanigar, as it turns out, is a true stud. Once Cano, Nellie Cruz and Seager inevitably start hitting, the Mariners are an offensive explosion waiting to happen. The market, or most of it, is not aware of how good these Mariners are just yet and therefore the time to buy would be now before their stock skyrockets. This is a team to watch and a team to bet on and that's precisely what we'll be doing over the next while.
