<center>
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
Friday, April 17th, 10:15 PM ET </center>
San Francisco opened the season at 0-5 against Division opponents and now must face Haren, who's allowed just 3 Earned Runs in his 13 Innings Pitched this season. Those two starts came against the Dodgers and Colorado, who have stronger line-ups than these Giants, who own a .236% Team Batting Average. HUGE Pitching MisMatch here as he squares off against the Giants Sanchez, who is 1-5 when starting against Arizona with an ERA of 8.56.
Play on: Arizona
Carlo Campanella
6-2 in MLB this season
6-2 in MLB this season
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
Friday, April 17th, 10:15 PM ET </center>
San Francisco opened the season at 0-5 against Division opponents and now must face Haren, who's allowed just 3 Earned Runs in his 13 Innings Pitched this season. Those two starts came against the Dodgers and Colorado, who have stronger line-ups than these Giants, who own a .236% Team Batting Average. HUGE Pitching MisMatch here as he squares off against the Giants Sanchez, who is 1-5 when starting against Arizona with an ERA of 8.56.
Play on: Arizona
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
NHL Total
72 VAN / 71 STL Over 5.0
Analysis: While the Canucks pledged more discipline, the Blues were buoyed by
the fact the game remained close despite playing so poorly, failing to convert on
a lengthy 5-on-3 midway through the first period, and being outshot 15-6 in the
third. St. Louis has only dropped consecutive games twice in the last three months,
and in both cases one of the losses was in overtime or a shootout. The Blues, who
went into the playoffs on a 9-1-1 run, haven't lost two straight games outright
since the middle of January and I expect an offensive outburst this evening. It's interesting
to note that Vancouver has seen the total go over the posted number in 5 of 7 home games
where the total is 5 or less and the Blues have seen it go over the number in 24 of 41
games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent! Play on the OVER!
NHL Total
72 VAN / 71 STL Over 5.0
Analysis: While the Canucks pledged more discipline, the Blues were buoyed by
the fact the game remained close despite playing so poorly, failing to convert on
a lengthy 5-on-3 midway through the first period, and being outshot 15-6 in the
third. St. Louis has only dropped consecutive games twice in the last three months,
and in both cases one of the losses was in overtime or a shootout. The Blues, who
went into the playoffs on a 9-1-1 run, haven't lost two straight games outright
since the middle of January and I expect an offensive outburst this evening. It's interesting
to note that Vancouver has seen the total go over the posted number in 5 of 7 home games
where the total is 5 or less and the Blues have seen it go over the number in 24 of 41
games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent! Play on the OVER!
King Creole
ANA (+110) vs MIN
The LA Angels have come out of the gate with a smokin HOT starting pitcher ERA of only 2.60. Now compare that to tonight's host (5.43). That's an unheard of early-season starting pitcher advantage of almost 3 FULL runs per game. With yesterday's 9-2 loss to the Hot Blue Jays, the Twins finished the 4-game series at 1-3... and are now 1-5 in their last 6 games. This also happens to be a series in which they have struggled big-time in the last 2+ seasons. Minnesota is 3-9 in the last 2 years vs the Angels... and that includes a PERFECT 0-4 when playing the role of the host.
Nick Blackburn's ERA in his first two starts of the 2009 season is already sky-high at 5.73 with an opponent team batting average of .367. Not only that, but he's allowed TWICE as many walks as strikeouts... which is usually a great indicator of 'play AGAINST' form. He's even done WORSE at home... with an ERA of 7.20 and an opponent team batting average of .458. Blackburn has faced the Angels only twice in his career (in the 2008 season)... and is a PERFECT 0-2. He's also 3-9 in his last 12 overall starts dating back to last year... 1-5 on 4 days rest... and 1-5 in his last 6 vs losing teams.
Meanwhile, Dustin Mosely comes in with a 5-1 record on 4 days rest.... and a very profitable 4-1 in his last 5 UNDERDOG roles. He's allowed 3 earned runs or less in EACH of his two 2009 starts thus far. His K/BB ratio is solid at better than a 3-1 advantage and also holds an edge in that he has NEVER faced the Twins before.
ANA (+110) vs MIN
The LA Angels have come out of the gate with a smokin HOT starting pitcher ERA of only 2.60. Now compare that to tonight's host (5.43). That's an unheard of early-season starting pitcher advantage of almost 3 FULL runs per game. With yesterday's 9-2 loss to the Hot Blue Jays, the Twins finished the 4-game series at 1-3... and are now 1-5 in their last 6 games. This also happens to be a series in which they have struggled big-time in the last 2+ seasons. Minnesota is 3-9 in the last 2 years vs the Angels... and that includes a PERFECT 0-4 when playing the role of the host.
Nick Blackburn's ERA in his first two starts of the 2009 season is already sky-high at 5.73 with an opponent team batting average of .367. Not only that, but he's allowed TWICE as many walks as strikeouts... which is usually a great indicator of 'play AGAINST' form. He's even done WORSE at home... with an ERA of 7.20 and an opponent team batting average of .458. Blackburn has faced the Angels only twice in his career (in the 2008 season)... and is a PERFECT 0-2. He's also 3-9 in his last 12 overall starts dating back to last year... 1-5 on 4 days rest... and 1-5 in his last 6 vs losing teams.
Meanwhile, Dustin Mosely comes in with a 5-1 record on 4 days rest.... and a very profitable 4-1 in his last 5 UNDERDOG roles. He's allowed 3 earned runs or less in EACH of his two 2009 starts thus far. His K/BB ratio is solid at better than a 3-1 advantage and also holds an edge in that he has NEVER faced the Twins before.
LT Profits
Washington Nationals +115
The Florida Marlins are off to a fantastic 8-1 start while the Washington Nationals are a woeful 1-7, but the Nats may have a surprise in store for the Fish today.
Washington finally broke through the win column yesterday with an 8-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies. Surprisingly, the Nationals have actually been scoring runs this far, as this marked their second straight game that they scored eight runs and fourth time in five contests that they put up at least five runs.
It is the pitching that has been disappointing, including their starter tonight, John Lannan. Lannan actually earned the Opening Day start for Washington with a very good 2008 season, but he is 0-2 so far with a lofty 10.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in nine innings. Still, both of those starts came on the road, and we look for marked improvement from him today here at home in a pitcher-friendly park.
Florida starter Ricky Nolasco is one of the few disappointments in their early season so far, as he has a 7.36 ERA and 1.45 WHIP while failing to record a Quality Start in two outings. One of those starts came vs. these Nationals, where he was roughed up for five earned runs and seven hits in six innings.
Those numbers hardly inspire confidence in a road favorite, and the fact that the Nationals are actually hitting the ball well right now makes them the choice as a home underdog.
Pick: Nationals +115
Washington Nationals +115
The Florida Marlins are off to a fantastic 8-1 start while the Washington Nationals are a woeful 1-7, but the Nats may have a surprise in store for the Fish today.
Washington finally broke through the win column yesterday with an 8-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies. Surprisingly, the Nationals have actually been scoring runs this far, as this marked their second straight game that they scored eight runs and fourth time in five contests that they put up at least five runs.
It is the pitching that has been disappointing, including their starter tonight, John Lannan. Lannan actually earned the Opening Day start for Washington with a very good 2008 season, but he is 0-2 so far with a lofty 10.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in nine innings. Still, both of those starts came on the road, and we look for marked improvement from him today here at home in a pitcher-friendly park.
Florida starter Ricky Nolasco is one of the few disappointments in their early season so far, as he has a 7.36 ERA and 1.45 WHIP while failing to record a Quality Start in two outings. One of those starts came vs. these Nationals, where he was roughed up for five earned runs and seven hits in six innings.
Those numbers hardly inspire confidence in a road favorite, and the fact that the Nationals are actually hitting the ball well right now makes them the choice as a home underdog.
Pick: Nationals +115
Jack Jones
New York Mets -123
I like the Mets to get the win tonight over the Milwaukee Brewers behind the strong veteran arm of Livan Hernandez. Hernandez isn't going to overpower hitters anymore, but he pitches smart and eats up a lot of innings. Livan will faces a Milwaukee offense that has quite a bit of talent, but that hasn't really taken off yet this season. So far the Brew Crew is hitting just .223 as a team and averaging 4.6 runs per game. Those numbers drop to .208 BA and 3.7 runs per game on the road, which doesn't bode well with this game at New York. Besides having the edge on the mound and in the batters box, I also love the fact that the Mets have put together an excellent bullpen for the 2009 season. This has been their biggest problem in the past and the bullpen has been very strong so far this year.
New York Mets -123
I like the Mets to get the win tonight over the Milwaukee Brewers behind the strong veteran arm of Livan Hernandez. Hernandez isn't going to overpower hitters anymore, but he pitches smart and eats up a lot of innings. Livan will faces a Milwaukee offense that has quite a bit of talent, but that hasn't really taken off yet this season. So far the Brew Crew is hitting just .223 as a team and averaging 4.6 runs per game. Those numbers drop to .208 BA and 3.7 runs per game on the road, which doesn't bode well with this game at New York. Besides having the edge on the mound and in the batters box, I also love the fact that the Mets have put together an excellent bullpen for the 2009 season. This has been their biggest problem in the past and the bullpen has been very strong so far this year.
Oh man, I am really sorry to hear that. My heart goes out to you. I don't know her condition but I am hoping she can recover. Although I don't really "know" you or your sister, but my prayers go out to her, to you and your family.
I think that it is a very loving/caring/special thing that you are there for her. Family is important.
Take it easy buddy, try to stay positive,
4WhatItsWorth
Tom Freese
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Under 7½
Seattle starter Felix Hernandez has a 2.97 ERA in five career starts vs. the Tigers. The Mariners are 20-9-1 UNDER the last 30 starts made by Hernandez and they are 20-8-3 when Hernandez starts Game 1 of a series. Seattle are 15-7 UNDER vs. a team that scored five or more runs in their game. Detroit starter Justin Verlander has a 2.91 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Mariners. The Tigers are 7-3 UNDER the last 10 starts made by Verlander vs. AL West teams. Detroit is 5-1-1 UNDER vs. winning teams and they are 6-2-1 UNDER in Hernandez last nine Friday starts. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Under 7½
Seattle starter Felix Hernandez has a 2.97 ERA in five career starts vs. the Tigers. The Mariners are 20-9-1 UNDER the last 30 starts made by Hernandez and they are 20-8-3 when Hernandez starts Game 1 of a series. Seattle are 15-7 UNDER vs. a team that scored five or more runs in their game. Detroit starter Justin Verlander has a 2.91 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Mariners. The Tigers are 7-3 UNDER the last 10 starts made by Verlander vs. AL West teams. Detroit is 5-1-1 UNDER vs. winning teams and they are 6-2-1 UNDER in Hernandez last nine Friday starts. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Dave Malinsky
Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees
PICK: Cleveland Indians
We do not have to get too complex with this one – with Alex Rodriguez sidelined and some problems with the middle relief corps once again, the Yankees have only played .500 baseball through their first 10 games. That just is not good enough to merit being anywhere near this price range, especially with the absence of Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui compounding the lineup woes.
Mariano Rivera has yet to be scored on this season, but the Yankee bullpen has an ERA of 6.52, which tells you all you need to know about how the rest of the group has performed. With Joba Chamberlain only working 69.2 innings in 12 starts LY, and not ready for more than six innings right now (only 19.2 frames in six spring training appearances, then six innings vs. Kansas City in his only work since then), it is difficult to build a bridge from him to Rivera, assuming Chamberlain has anything special to begin with – of the 18 batters that he retired vs. the Royals nine came on fly balls, and now he faces a lineup with the punch to do so much more when they make contact, especially now that Victor Martinez has regained the power that was missing LY.
Anthony Reyes has worked to a 3-1/2.45 tune since joining the Cleveland rotation, allowing only 34 hits in 40.1 innings in that span. While the tutelage of Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa has worked with so many pitchers it was simply a bad fit in St. Louis for Reyes, and his career is being turned around by having the freedom to use his natural stuff, instead of being turned more into a finesse/control type. He brings us more than enough to back in this price range, and yesterday’s late-game breakout also means that Kerry Wood got the day off, leaving him fresh to close this one out.
Cleveland Indians @ New York Yankees
PICK: Cleveland Indians
We do not have to get too complex with this one – with Alex Rodriguez sidelined and some problems with the middle relief corps once again, the Yankees have only played .500 baseball through their first 10 games. That just is not good enough to merit being anywhere near this price range, especially with the absence of Xavier Nady and Hideki Matsui compounding the lineup woes.
Mariano Rivera has yet to be scored on this season, but the Yankee bullpen has an ERA of 6.52, which tells you all you need to know about how the rest of the group has performed. With Joba Chamberlain only working 69.2 innings in 12 starts LY, and not ready for more than six innings right now (only 19.2 frames in six spring training appearances, then six innings vs. Kansas City in his only work since then), it is difficult to build a bridge from him to Rivera, assuming Chamberlain has anything special to begin with – of the 18 batters that he retired vs. the Royals nine came on fly balls, and now he faces a lineup with the punch to do so much more when they make contact, especially now that Victor Martinez has regained the power that was missing LY.
Anthony Reyes has worked to a 3-1/2.45 tune since joining the Cleveland rotation, allowing only 34 hits in 40.1 innings in that span. While the tutelage of Dave Duncan and Tony LaRussa has worked with so many pitchers it was simply a bad fit in St. Louis for Reyes, and his career is being turned around by having the freedom to use his natural stuff, instead of being turned more into a finesse/control type. He brings us more than enough to back in this price range, and yesterday’s late-game breakout also means that Kerry Wood got the day off, leaving him fresh to close this one out.
Ben Burns
Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
After struggling through a 5-game winless stretch, which saw them get outscored by a 37-11 margin, the Astros have bounced back with consecutive victories. If history is any indication (and it often is) they should have a great shot at making it three in a row. Oswalt takes the mound for Houston and he's enjoyed plenty of success against the Reds over his career. In fact, he's a remarkable 23-1 with a 2.47 ERA in 28 career games (26 starts) against them. That includes a perfect 8-0 record (2.39 ERA) in his last eight starts against them. In his last three starts against them, he allowed a combined three runs (1 in each game) through 20 combined innings. On the other hand, Cueto is 0-3 (Reds are 0-4) with a terrible 7.84 ERA (1.935 WHIP!) in four starts against the Astros. In his last start against them, he was also opposed by Oswalt. While Oswalt allowed only two hits through six innings, Cueto allowed seven hits (and five runs) in just 2 2/3 innings. Overall, the Astros are a profitable 23-7 (+17.4) the last 30 games in this series. Consider Houston.
Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
After struggling through a 5-game winless stretch, which saw them get outscored by a 37-11 margin, the Astros have bounced back with consecutive victories. If history is any indication (and it often is) they should have a great shot at making it three in a row. Oswalt takes the mound for Houston and he's enjoyed plenty of success against the Reds over his career. In fact, he's a remarkable 23-1 with a 2.47 ERA in 28 career games (26 starts) against them. That includes a perfect 8-0 record (2.39 ERA) in his last eight starts against them. In his last three starts against them, he allowed a combined three runs (1 in each game) through 20 combined innings. On the other hand, Cueto is 0-3 (Reds are 0-4) with a terrible 7.84 ERA (1.935 WHIP!) in four starts against the Astros. In his last start against them, he was also opposed by Oswalt. While Oswalt allowed only two hits through six innings, Cueto allowed seven hits (and five runs) in just 2 2/3 innings. Overall, the Astros are a profitable 23-7 (+17.4) the last 30 games in this series. Consider Houston.
Lenny Del Genio
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: San Diego Padres
No way we can pass on the Padres at this price, particularly with Chris Young on the hill. Young was a winner in each of his first two starts, posting a 1.38 ERA. We cashed San Diego as an underdog yesterday as our NL Game of the Week as the team continues its fast and surprising start (7-3). Phillies starter Cole Hamels comes off a disappointing 2009 debut where he was rocked for seven runs and 11 hits in less than four innings of work. Injuries during Spring Training mean Hamels may be off his game for a bit. Young?s team start record as an underdog of +150 or more is a perfect 6-0! Take San Diego.
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: San Diego Padres
No way we can pass on the Padres at this price, particularly with Chris Young on the hill. Young was a winner in each of his first two starts, posting a 1.38 ERA. We cashed San Diego as an underdog yesterday as our NL Game of the Week as the team continues its fast and surprising start (7-3). Phillies starter Cole Hamels comes off a disappointing 2009 debut where he was rocked for seven runs and 11 hits in less than four innings of work. Injuries during Spring Training mean Hamels may be off his game for a bit. Young?s team start record as an underdog of +150 or more is a perfect 6-0! Take San Diego.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -130
Big letdown spot for the Nats after crushing the defending World Series champs to pick up their first win of the season. Florida already owns a 3-game sweep over the Nationals this season. It faces John Lannan again tonight, whom it lit up on Opening Day in a 12-6 win. The Fish send Nolasco to the hill and he appears to be a safe bet tonight as he is 5-1 when starting against Weashington with an ERA of 4.02 and a WHIP of 0.967. Washington is just is 9-28 against the money line after a game they hit 4 or more home runs since 1997, losing in these spots by an average score of 3.7 to 6.2. Letdown city for the Nats tonight. Play Florida.
1 Unit on Florida Marlins -130
Big letdown spot for the Nats after crushing the defending World Series champs to pick up their first win of the season. Florida already owns a 3-game sweep over the Nationals this season. It faces John Lannan again tonight, whom it lit up on Opening Day in a 12-6 win. The Fish send Nolasco to the hill and he appears to be a safe bet tonight as he is 5-1 when starting against Weashington with an ERA of 4.02 and a WHIP of 0.967. Washington is just is 9-28 against the money line after a game they hit 4 or more home runs since 1997, losing in these spots by an average score of 3.7 to 6.2. Letdown city for the Nats tonight. Play Florida.
John Martin
1 Unit on L.A. Angels +105
(Listing Moseley Only)
The Twins have lost 5 of their last 6 games, and Nick Blackburn, who is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA this season, won’t be able to stop the bleeding. Minnesota is batting just .230 (47-for-204) during this stretch with 14 total runs. In his last start against the Angels, Blackburn gave up 6 runs on 10 hits in 4.3 innings. Dustin Moseley already has 2 starts under his belt, going 1-0 allowing 5 earned runs in 11.7 innings for a 3.86 ERA. The Angels are 25-13 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 17-6 against the money line in road games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings overall and 4-1 in their last 5 meeting in Minnesota. Cash in with the Angels as the underdog.
1 Unit on L.A. Angels +105
(Listing Moseley Only)
The Twins have lost 5 of their last 6 games, and Nick Blackburn, who is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA this season, won’t be able to stop the bleeding. Minnesota is batting just .230 (47-for-204) during this stretch with 14 total runs. In his last start against the Angels, Blackburn gave up 6 runs on 10 hits in 4.3 innings. Dustin Moseley already has 2 starts under his belt, going 1-0 allowing 5 earned runs in 11.7 innings for a 3.86 ERA. The Angels are 25-13 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 17-6 against the money line in road games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings overall and 4-1 in their last 5 meeting in Minnesota. Cash in with the Angels as the underdog.
