Friday 4/10/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16200 Class Rating: 54

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 FEELS SO RIGHT 4/5


# 3 COLLENS LAST PUNCH 5/1


# 5 LUCY'S JULIA 6/1


I give the nod to FEELS SO RIGHT here. Has performed solidly lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 60 avg Equibase Speed Figure. Has been running soundly lately and will probably be on or close to the front end early on. Must be given a chance based on the decent Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last competition. LUCY'S JULIA - Has been running quite well lately and will probably be on the lead early on. Demeza is trying to win with this horse by bringing her back so quickly.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Rillito

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Allowance - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $2900 Class Rating: 72

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND OLDER WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 ROAD KING ROCKER 3/1


# 8 ANGELS QUICK NICOYA 7/2


# 7 RAPIDO Y FURIOSO 5/1


I have to support ROAD KING ROCKER here. Osuna has a win percentage of 29 over the last month. Looks respectable against this group of horses and will most likely be one of the leaders. Ought to be given a shot based on the very strong speed figure garnered in the last race. ANGELS QUICK NICOYA - When this jock and conditioner team up, risk takers often make money. Could beat this group given the 72 speed fig recorded in her last outing. RAPIDO Y FURIOSO - With James aboard him, this gelding will probably be able to break out quickly in here. He has to be given a chance given the formidable speed figures.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Pimlico - Race #1 - Post: 1:10pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 57

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 CARPE OMNIA (ML=8/1)
#4 MY LITTLE DIPPER (ML=5/2)


CARPE OMNIA - Several positive 'vibrations' attached to this thoroughbred and her barn. MY LITTLE DIPPER - Hole and Corrales perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +46 ROI for a rider and trainer. This one has increased her Equibase speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 COTTON LETTERS (ML=9/5), #5 NINA BELLE (ML=5/1),

COTTON LETTERS - You should normally gamble against probable favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last 3 weeks. While Equibase's speed ratings are solid, I would forget about the high one from the Mar 12th on the mud. Some entries just run well on the off going. NINA BELLE - This filly most likely won't be close at the finish line.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #8 CARPE OMNIA to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Santa Anita - Race #8 - Post: 4:36pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 POWERFUL GIRL (ML=9/2)
#3 SLEW KEYTY (ML=8/1)
#13 SILENT CODE (ML=20/1)


POWERFUL GIRL - You always have to be on the patrol for revenue generating jockey/conditioner combinations; we have it right here. Lets try to beat the low-odds horses with this filly. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty good race. This filly's last rating registered on March 29th is number one in last race Equibase speed figures. SLEW KEYTY - Aguirre seems to have this filly primed for a big effort. Her workout pattern is great. SILENT CODE - Using this jockey/handler combination is a smart choice. The addition of Lasix might make this horse wake up and run a great in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 POCKETFULLOFGREEN (ML=9/5), #7 JAZZED (ML=7/2), #10 HAAAY SEXY LADY (ML=9/2),

POCKETFULLOFGREEN - Not likely for this one to do much running with no recent success in a sprint race. JAZZED - This filly probably won't be right there at the finish line. HAAAY SEXY LADY - Hard to wager on a steed that lays up for a long time then doesn't land in the money off the very long layoff. In any race of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been sharp in short distance affairs recently. If this race shapes up right, all the front runners will force a fierce pace battle early. Too bad this equine is one of those front runners.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #9 POWERFUL GIRL on top if we're getting at least 8/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
9 with [3,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,9,13] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 2:18 PM EASTERN POST

8.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEAR OLDS OPTIONAL CLAIMING $62,000.00 PURSE

#1 GLOBAL POSITIONING / #1A DAMAGE CONTROL
#5 PERSUASIVE DEVIL
#4 MASONS DREAM
#2 CHASING BUBBLES

#1 GLOBAL POSITIONING has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five outings, hitting the board in four, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 4th race back. The stablemate, #1A DAMAGE CONTROL, is both the overall speed and pace profile leader in this O.C. field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of this last two "adventures," including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break his maiden in his last start. Jockey Angel Arroyo was in his irons for that win, and is back today for another ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips." #5 PERSUASIVE DEVIL takes a slight class drop (-1), and has hit the board in four straight, winning twice in this recent streak of racing consistency.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Friday 4/10 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

2,9,10/2,5/2/4,5,9,10 = $24


LATE $1 PICK 4: 1,2,9/6/4,6,7/1,2,3,7 = $36

MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

Best Bet: HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS (6th)

Spot Play: BRUSHSTROKES (7th)


Race 1

(1) WINDSUN KENDA has faced some pretty good competition the past couple of weeks in the NW4 class and may find these a bit easier. She may improve here, too as she took her mark at Mohawk last year. (6) SHADYS M THREE is another that likes Mohawk as she took her only win there in 2014. She had good late speed in her qualifier and could hit the board at a price. (3) LARJON LAURA faced some tough ones last week and made little impact. She should go better here.

Race 2

(2) TAROT and (1) MAGIC MADNESS both had uncharacteristic miscues in the slop last week. They look the two best in here with the edge to the former. (4) SOUTHWIND ALICE beat a decent field two back at Woodbine then stalled a bit at London. She can threaten here.

Race 3

(2) A REAL COMMITMENT had good late speed last time vs. one who races in the F & M Preferred tonight. She has done very well in Nixon's barn and could return to her winning ways here. (5) ST LADS PENNY LANE dusted a weaker field last week and is right on top of her game the past 3 weeks; the main danger. (7) MACHET ROCKET almost lasted at a huge price and likely tries similar tactics here; for a share.

Race 4

(9) KEYSTONE DALTON has been racing well for weeks out of town and fits this class well for high % trainer Dowling. He could go right down the road vs. these. (2) BEACHSIDE BUNGALOW took big action at the windows then stopped at the 3/4. He should be better tonight back in a week. (10) CAPELO has been the most popular horse on the grounds at the claiming box with good reason. He brings it every week and is a threat even from the 10-hole here.

Race 5

(2) REGIL HURRICANE looked home free but was nailed very late last week by an impressive debutante. She appears to have few rivals here to worry about here. (5) WICKED SPEED looks like the next logical contender based on last year's record and company. Trainer Young typically sends them ready first time out. (3) HAPPY ENDING GAL showed speed to the stretch last week which is likely a sign of improving form. She should share here.

Race 6

(2) HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS takes a class plunge and should have this field at his mercy; top call and Best Bet. (8) THE ONLY ONE has been racing well and fits this class nicely. Look for him late. (6) ROAD SENSE is a great horse to use for 3rd and 4th in your exotics.

Race 7

(9) BRUSHTROKES was passively driven last week; now gets to drop again and should be a big threat even from out there; top call. (10) ADDISON BAY didn't live up to the wagering action she took last week but it really wasn't a bad effort now she drops again, too. She's dangerous. (4) WILDCAT HANNA may have not liked the slop last week and could bounce back here in her 3rd start off the shelf.

Race 8

(9) ILLSEEUINCOURT gets Lasix here for Moreau and likely gets back on track with a top effort. (2) HIE BENNY has been very consistent in this class and the inside post is a bonus for him; using. (1) ABC MUSCLES BOY just missed in a claimer against one who has been racing very well. He is a contender here.

Race 9

(6) KIKISKISSINKOUSIN wired most of these last week and might get a perfect pocket trip here if (8) ONE LAST BONO leaves hard as is her custom. They look the main two protagonists here. (7) JET HOT STUFF closed well last time but couldn't get close to the winner. She is usually an exotics player.

Race 10

(6) PUTMEINTOGO has done well in the top class the past two weeks and looks like the dominant speed in here; top billing. (4) GREYSTONE LADYLIKE was the one that put pressure on the choice and softened her up but she has been very consistent the past month and can take this with a better trip. (7) MARLEE B loves Mohawk and makes her seasonal debut here. Don't be shocked if she knocks them all off first time out.

Race 11

(1) YOUR MY SECRET has been lights out the past 3 weeks but is sure to get tested here vs. much better. She may be this good. (2) RIDE AWAY SHARK took a mark of 1:53 here last year as a rookie; she is the obvious danger. (7) MAKE WAY was driven differently last week and scored at a price. Expect Zeron to be winding this one up from the back turning home; for a share. (3) PINOT GRIGIO went from 1st to 5th in a race where the back 1/2 was 4 seconds quicker than the first one. She can get a good piece of this. (5) PEPPERMINT PATTI showed some gameness late last week and is a good one for the bottom rungs of your vertical wagers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Friday 4/10 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 149 - 571 / $796.90 BEST BETS: 19 - 47 / $70.70

Best Bet: BOSSERS JOY (10th)

Spot Play: ICOMMANDMYSPIRIT (7th)


Race 1

(2) MARION MILLIONAIR raced evenly from post eight at Pocono in her first start since July and followed it up with a solid second-place finish from behind once again from post eight. Lightly raced 3-year-old seems ready to fire and connections see fit to add Gingras to make it happen. (1) EL MURO BR was visually just even in his qualifier but was trotting a 27 1/5 final quarter. (7) WANNA GET LUCKY returns to the Meadowlands off a narrow win; confidence builder?

Race 2

(4) INITTOWINAFORTUNE was a strong runner-up behind (5) RADAR CONTACT last week after chasing soft fractions and can easily turn the tables. (6) ROCKLAMATION qualified well and has all the class needed to win, but I'll give her one pari-mutuel start.

Race 3

(6) STEEL CURTIN is normally a horse I would avoid, but he has been in against much tougher foes lately. Let's give this guy the conditioning edge over a few interesting newcomers coming off qualifiers. (3) ROYAL BECCA J has posted two solid efforts here and will be taking them a long way once again. (5) CREDISHIRE wasn't exactly asked for his best in that last qualifier. I get the impression there is more in his tank.

Race 4

(3) BAMBINO HALL was strangely bet down to favoritism last Friday and burned plenty of money. He moves inside this week, isn't coming off a break and should be handled aggressively. (8) SO PHOTOGENIC comes off a string of poor efforts from outside posts on a half-mile track. Mare moves into a new barn for a high percentage amateur. (5) CASANOVA LINDY has early speed and will be using it. (1) WINDSUN GALLIANO comes off a toss-out line; prior effort was fine.

Race 5

(9) DREAM'S BAR drops down to a winning level and should be firing off the gate. (10) BEACH GRANNY is also getting a fair amount of class relief and has been in raging form of late. (1) PURITY seems to be racing better since the switch to trainer Kevin Hough. (5) TOP BRAND is capable but disappoints too often.

Race 6

(5) HANDOVER BELLE was a bit short in her first start of the year and got stuck first over last time. She deserves one more shot on the class drop. (7) SWEET JUSTICE surprised me last week and perhaps he is ready to turn the corner. (1) UPFRONT BILLY almost always gets a piece of the pie and is an exotics must.

Race 7

(8) ICOMMANDMYSPIRIT folded on the engine on a night where speed wasn't exactly golden. She was also facing a couple that are now racing at the top level here. This looks like a good spot. (4) MATTIE TERROR GIRL is a quality mare that wasn't ready to handle Open types most recently. She can go with this group though. (7) PAN LUIS OBISPO is in fine form; using in exotics.

Race 8

(2) B L CLASS ACT was a solid second last week and he can step up in this spot. (8) POUNCE HANOVER bested the top choice a week ago. If he doesn't break he can easily go wire to wire again. (5) PROVE UP might be a step slower than the top pair and comes with a major breaking risk, but I wouldn't be shocked if he won.

Race 9

(4) ANGELS DELIGHT raced reasonably well in her first start since last June and is well spotted for a good payday in this mini-series final. (7) ART IDEAL picked up a win last week and has some versatility. (8) JANIE BAY only needs a smooth journey to roll past this field late. (10) LIGHTNING PAIGE flashed speed at both ends of the mile a week ago. (5) SOUTHWIND TRINI could have been short last time after missing a month of action.

Race 10

(7) BOSSERS JOY chased slow fractions and sprinted home in an impressive 25 4/5. That was a nice 2015 debut mile that she can build on. (6) AMERICAN TRUTH stole the race on the engine last time and it wouldn't be a shock if he did it again. (8) SWINGING CAMI comes out of the same race as the top two picks and is eligible to improve in just her second start since January.

Race 11

(6) MELADY'S MONET has been the king of this division all year. It is very hard to go against him. (5) WIND OF THE NORTH clearly has some ability but needs to step up his game one more notch to take on the top choice. (1A) LINDY'S TRU GRIT & (1) MASTER OF LAW are both capable but have missed some time.

Race 12

(4) STITCH IN TIME comes off a win and knows how to string them together judging by his 20-for-51 lifetime record. (3) HOME TURF gets a good post to work with this week. (5) KINGAPORE has some ability and could get home first again with the right trip. (6) LEXIS AMIGO should get a piece if he stays flat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Friday 4/10 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 51 - 298 / $397.30 BEST BETS: 3 - 25 / $14.10

Best Bet: OUR CULLENSCROWN N (5th)

Spot Play: HEFTY LEFTY (3rd)


Race 1

(2) IDEAL DANNY gets serious post relief and did show some early zip two trips ago; worth a closer look. (1) ALLSTAR BLUES Qualifier here was sharp for his 2015 debut. (7) JK EVEN STEVEN moves down in class but post hurts; maybe.

Race 2

(4) FORT VALLEY AS leaves the 7-hole for sharp connections and Bartlett stays on board this trotting gelding. (1) MURMUR HANOVER flashed good speed in his recent trip to the post; threat. (2) CASHONTHEROCS could be a factor in here.

Race 3

(1) HEFTY LEFTY Quite sharp in his latest and the move to the fence can put this guy back to the winner's circle. (7) JOLLY JUBITER rallied strongly to nail down the show spot last out. (2) SCOTTY MACH N took a 3-hole trip to glory recently.

Race 4

(4) DIAMONDKEEPER has wheeled off two straight victories and this pacer is very good form. The hat trick is clearly not out of the question. (3) JACK ATTACK got the job done at Philly last time out; contender. (2) GRANDPA DON should be right in the mix based on his last two tries.

Race 5

(1) OUR CULLENSCROWN N returns to the rail slot where this gelding was a pocket trip winner three starts ago with Dube in the bike and now he is back on board; all systems go. (8) ITS A GOOD THING Upstate invader has good speed but will have to contend from post 8. (5) BET THE MOON moves down in class; watch out.

Race 6

(2) YAGONNAKISSMEORNOT Very sharp miss is moving in the right direction and is fit and ready to take down another. (4) CAMILLE has hit the board in all her starts this year; main danger. (1) VENUS DELIGHT should be right in the mix from the fence.

Race 7

(2) CAROLSIDEAL She is on a roll scoring her third straight victory and is clearly the one to deny. (1) CHARISMA HANOVER draws much better and Brennan stays on board; contender. (3) KRISPY APPLE can have a say with this select group.

Race 8

(3) HANDSOFFMYCOOKIE drops slightly in class and has tactical speed; pounce and score over these. (2) DELIGHTFUL DRAGON has pulled off two straight second place finishes; threat. (4) FANTICIPATION was sent down the road last out for all the glory.

Race 9

(6) SUMMER SMACKDOWN was second best in his last try and this gelding seems to ready to mow this group down for all the marbles. (3) SILVER DEVIL gets post relief and that should help his cause. (7) ORILLIA JOE could make some noise in the final strides.

Race 10

(3) NEFERTITI BLUE CHIP gets a better draw and drops back to her winning condition; the pick. (1) A LA NOTTE HANOVER fits well in here and the rail slot makes her a contender. (4) OUR ELS DREAM N could have a say in the outcome.

Race 11

This could be a better spot for (2) RIVIERA to get back to glory and her tactical speed will make tonight happen. (5) ROCKAROUND SUE fits with these and should be right in the swing of things. (1) KEYSTONE WANDA just got up last out for win honors.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Friday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (4th) Bambisfrostyracer, 5-1
(8th) Lexsoya, 7-2

Charles Town (3rd) Ours Is a Double, 7-2
(7th) Paul and Silas, 3-1

Evangeline Downs (2nd) Slew of Halos, 9-2
(7th) Victory Colors, 7-2

Golden Gate Fields (5th) Shared Image, 7-2
(6th) Lindz Winz, 5-1


Gulfstream Park (5th) Summers Back, 7-2
(7th) Taverni Bay, 6-1


Hawthorne (3rd) Lethal, 9-2
(4th) Sweep E Prado, 5-1


Keeneland (1st) My Regency Lady, 5-1
(10th) Northern Borealis, 3-1


Lone Star Park (1st) Kerugma, 5-1
(5th) Margarita Bob, 7-2


Oaklawn Park (1st) Where's Lewis, 7-2
(4th) Aloha Daddy, 9-2


Penn National (2nd) Sleeping Tiger, 7-2
(5th) Hot Trial, 7-2


Pimlico (2nd) If Not for Her, 7-2
(6th) Divide the Sea, 6-1


Santa Anita (3rd) Bailoutbobby, 7-2
(5th) Warrensdollarsigns, 5-1


Tampa Bay Downs (4th) Coal Hearted Woman, 3-1
(9th) Biddabudda, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB betting cheat sheet: Over cashing in National League West
By DOC'S SPORTS

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for this weekend’s major-league schedule:

Wild West

The Over was the way to go in the National League West throughout the first three days of the season. As of Thursday afternoon, the five representatives were 12-3 O/U. None had scored fewer than 13 total runs and the Colorado Rockies had crossed the plate 20 times.

Braves’ New World

After cleaning house in the offseason, all the depleted Atlanta Braves did was go out and sweep the Miami Marlins in their opening series. Atlanta has given up only three runs (1-2 O/U) heading into a weekend series with the Mets. The two NL East rivals are 1-6-1 O/U in their last eight head-to-head meetings.

Something’s Gotta Give

In his first Opening Day start with the Boston Red Sox, Clay Buchholz pitched seven scoreless innings at the expense of the Philadelphia Phillies while surrendering just three hits and striking out nine. But his next start is coming on Sunday night against the New York Yankees, against whom he went 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA in three starts last season (2-1 O/U).

Pitching Notes

* Look for David Price of the Detroit Tigers to go Under the total again when he takes the mound on Saturday against the Cleveland Indians. The Tigers won each of their first two games this season with shutouts—including one started by Price. The southpaw, who went 8.2 innings and allowed five hits on Monday against the Minnesota Twins, also ended 2014 with three consecutive Unders. Detroit scored 15 runs in its first two games, but the team is facing Cleveland’s Corey Kluber (7.1 innings, two runs at the Houston Astros in his first start) on Saturday.

* Seattle Mariners’ ace Felix Hernandez appears to have picked up where he left off in 2014. King Felix gave up only two hits and one run while striking out 10 batters in seven innings during a 4-1 win over the Los Angeles Angels on Opening Day. He wrapped up last season with three scoreless outings in his last five. Hernandez is 1-6 O/U in his last seven starts heading into Sunday at the Oakland Athletics.

Hitting Notes

* Los Angeles Dodgers’ first baseman Adrian Gonzalez went a ridiculous 10-for-13 with five home runs (three on Wednesday) and seven RBIs in his first three games of the season (all Overs for the Dodgers). This weekend he is going up against the Arizona Diamondbacks (2-1 O/U), who allowed a total of 16 runs in their first three contests.

* Adrian Beltre of the Texas Rangers went 0-for-11 in his first three games of 2015. He is not alone, either. The Rangers scored a grand total of three runs in their first three games versus Oakland. This weekend’s opponent, Houston, allowed only two runs in its first two games (0-2 O/U).

Totals Streak

San Diego Padres (3-0 O/U): San Diego outdid all of its competition in terms of an offseason spending spree and the offense acted accordingly with 14 runs in its first three games against the Dodgers. Of course, the Padres also gave up 16 total runs. Next up for SD are the San Francisco Giants (2-1 O/U).

Injury Notes

* Detroit traded Max Scherzer to the Washington Nationals this offseason and now the pitching staff is not getting any help. Both starter Justin Verlander (triceps) and closer Joe Nathan (flexor strain) were placed on the disabled list earlier this week.

* Jayson Werth (shoulder) and Denard Span (core surgery) of the Washington Nationals will be on rehab assignments this weekend. Washington (0-2 O/U) scored a total of three runs in its first two games.

Weather Watch

* There are a handful of games that could be affected by thundershowers Thursday. Below are a list of games and percent chance of thundershowers.
Blue Jays at Orioles - 60 percent
Red Sox at Yankees - 75 percent
Nationals at Phillies - 71 percent
Mets at Braves - 70 percent

Umpire Note: N/A

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Orioles undefeated with Norris' versus Blue Jays
Justin Hartling

The Baltimore Orioles will start Bud Norris when they host the Toronto Blue Jays Friday, with the rightie red-hot versus the Jays. The O's went 5-0 when Norris started against the Jays last season, with Norris only allowing a combined six runs in those starts.

There is a chance of thundershowers in Baltimore when the Blue Jays come to town Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians April 10, 4:10 EST

Cleveland Indians and Detroit open a three-game set at Progressive Field Friday. The Indians off to a 2-1 start send out right-hander Zach McAllister. McAllister was solid throughout spring training ending with a 3.27 ERA over three appearances. Detroit off to a perfect 3-0 start will have righty Alfredo Simon handling mound duties. Simon making his first start as a Tiger had an up-and-down spring posting a 6.32 ERA in tossing 15.2 innings.

Indians 3-0 when McAllister has started at home as a favorite in April, 3-1 at home opening a series with the hurler, 3-0 w/McAllister last year vs Detroit the lean is Cleveland. One final note. Simon was crushed for 5 ER over 5 innings in a 7-1 Cinci inter-league loss vs Cleveland last year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | TAMPA BAY at MIAMI
MIAMI is 15-5 (+13.6 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: MIAMI (4.4) , OPPONENT (2.9)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Home-Home Series'

San Antonio Spurs doing what they always do, playing their best basketball leading up to the playoffs have won/covered nine straight with a winning margin of 19.9 points/game. Spurs have also won 19 of its last 22 by an average 14.9 points/game with a sparkling 18-4 mark at the betting window. Spurs defeating Rockets 110-98 as 6.5-point home favorite Wednesday are right back at it Friday in Houston as they complete a home-home series vs Rockets. Taking a road chalk can be risky. But, some very telling situational betting stats leap out in Spurs favor. Over the past two seasons the road team in the second of these home-home tilts has cashed at a 65.6% clip posting a 21-10-1 record against the betting line. Absolutely nothing wrong with cashing 65.6% of tickets. However, the hit rate improves to 80% (8-2 ATS) if we focus solely on a road favorite in the second game. Good Luck with Spurs who've opened 3.0 point faves.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Friday, April 10, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Could be a long season in Tampa Bay. The Rays have some good young pitching, but a couple of them remain out with injuries. It’s the offense that looks to be a problem, and the team is going to struggle even more to score for the next two weeks or so. The Rays are expected to put their primary designated hitter John Jaso on the disabled list perhaps on Thursday. He injured his wrist on head-first slide into second base during Monday’s season opener, but it’s not overly serious. The team did put first baseman James Loney on the DL on Wednesday with an upper-body injury. Upper-body injury? Is this hockey? Here are five interesting games on Friday.

Tigers at Indians (-106, 8.5)

Most expect the Tigers and Indians to be the top two teams in the AL Central, although I still like the White Sox to make some noise. This is the home opener for the Tribe after finishing a series in Houston on Thursday. New Tiger Alfredo Simon gets his first start, and he was great in the first half last season with Cincinnati, named to the All-Star team, and terrible after. I’m pretty confident he’s more the second-half guy as Simon also was bombed in spring training. Simon did face the Tribe once in 2014, taking the loss in allowing five runs in five innings. If the Tigers are in a save situation, it will be Joakim Soria for a while as Joe Nathan was placed on the DL. Cleveland’s Zach McAllister (4-7, 5.23) regressed badly last season after a good 2013. He won the No. 5 job this spring. McAllister was 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA in 16.2 innings vs. Detroit last year. Victor Martinez is 9-for-18 with a homer and seven RBIs off him.

Key trends: Cleveland is 1-7 in its past eight series openers. It is 2-9 in McAllister’s past 11 starts. Detroit is 6-1 in its past seven in Cleveland. The “over/under” has gone over in 10 of the past 12 meetings there.

Early lean: Take the Tribe (although monitor the status of injured star outfielder Michael Brantley) because I have no faith in Simon; go with any Martinez hitting props and lean over the total.



Cubs at Rockies (-128, 10.5)

Break up the Rockies! They were supposed to be pretty lousy again this season and maybe they still will be. But Colorado sits atop the NL West with a 3-0 mark after sweeping a series at Milwaukee to open the week, so this is the home opener. Nolan Arenado, Troy Tulowitzki and Corey Dickerson all had big series against the Brewers, and all three rake at home (all Rockies do). Originally ace Jorge De La Rosa was to start the home opener, but he’s dealing with groin tightness, so the start goes to lefty Tyler Matzek. Last year as a rookie he was a pretty solid 4-4 with a 3.61 ERA at Coors Field. He faced the Cubs once at Wrigley in relief and allowed a run, hit and a walk in two-thirds of an inning in taking the loss. Chicago goes with lefty Travis Wood, who beat out Edwin Jackson for the No. 5 spot. Wood was a disappointing 8-13 with 5.03 ERA last year after a very good 2013. Tulo is 0-for-5 career off Wood.

Key trends: The Cubs are 1-6 in their past seven against a lefty. They are 3-14 in Wood’s past 17 on the road against teams with a winning record. The Rockies are 2-5 in Matzek’s past seven series openers. The under is 5-1 in Matzek’s past six starts. The Cubs are 5-2 in the past seven meetings.

Early lean: Rockies and over even though Cubs struggled on offense in opening series vs. Cardinals.



Red Sox at Yankees (-114, 7.5)

I’m telling you right now that I won’t be previewing every Red Sox-Yankees game this season — I’m so tired of that ESPN-hyped rivalry and frankly it’s not what it used to be with New York looking mediocre at best again. Boston might be good. Of course this game is nationally televised, on the MLB Network. Both starting pitchers are new to their teams. It’s former Diamondbacks lefty Wade Miley for Boston. Miley, who already has signed a three-year extension with the Sox, was 8-12 with a 4.34 ERA on a bad team in 2014. He didn’t face the Yankees. New York goes with Nathan Eovaldi, who was acquired in trade from the Marlins. Eovaldi was not good last year, going 6-14 with a 4.37 ERA. He didn’t face Boston.

Key trends: New York is 6-0 in its past six against a lefty. Boston is 1-4 in the past five meetings. The over is 6-2 in the previous eight.

Early lean: Yankees and over.



Giants at Padres (+110, 7)

Obviously I would never try to predict a no-hitter, but I will remind you that Friday’s Giants starter, Tim Lincecum, has no-hit the Padres each of the previous two seasons. Those San Diego teams were among the worst offensive clubs in the league, and this year’s lineup is much, much different. Entering Thursday, the Padres have scored 14 runs in their first three games this season after not scoring their 14th run until their seventh game last year. The Giants need Lincecum to be at least solid with all the pitching injuries, but Lincecum has been largely lousy the past three seasons. However, he was 5-0 with a 1.40 ERA in 25.2 innings against the Padres in 2014. San Diego counters with Brandon Morrow in his Padres debut. The injury-plagued Morrow hasn’t thrown more than 54.1 innings since 2012. Morrow had a 4.76 ERA this spring in winning the No. 5 spot.

Key trends: The Giants are 4-0 in Lincecum’s past four in San Diego. They are 0-4 in his past four road starts overall. The over has hit in three of Lincecum’s past five vs. the Padres.

Early lean: Can’t ignore what Lincecum does to Padres, even if many of them are new. Go under.



Dodgers at Diamondbacks (+130, 8.5)

The hottest power hitter in baseball right now is Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who has become the first player in league history with five homers in his team’s first three games. On Wednesday night, Gonzalez hit three solo home runs against his former team, the Padres. (go to askthebookie) He will face off against Diamondbacks starter Chase Anderson. He was 9-7 with a 4.01 ERA in 21 starts last year as a rookie. Anderson was 1-1 with a 4.96 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers. Gonzalez was 2-for-6 with a homer and two walks against him. It’s new Dodger Brett Anderson on the mound for L.A. Guy has great stuff but can’t stay healthy. He hasn’t pitched more than 84 innings since 2010 with Oakland. Anderson was 1-3 with a 2.91 ERA in eight starts last year with the Rockies. Only a few Diamondbacks have faced him. Mark Trumbo has a homer and four RBIs in 11 at-bats vs. Anderson.

Key trends: The Dodgers are 9-2 in their past 11 in Arizona. The over is 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall.

Early lean: Dodgers and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Friday, April 10 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

Here’s a statistic for Oklahoma City going into its game on Friday night: the team doesn’t control its playoff destiny for the first time this late in the year since moving from Seattle. When it secured the eighth seed during the 2009-10 season, OKC clinched the postseason berth on April 3. OKC hasn’t finished lower than fourth since. Of the Thunder’s entire 15-man roster, only center Enes Kanter has still been in a playoff race this late into a season (with Utah in 2011-12). Obviously the Thunder want to make the playoffs, but are they really going to beat Golden State in the first round? No chance. So perhaps getting into the draft lottery and having a shot to win it is better for the franchise. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are desperate to get back to the playoffs and have to give their 2015 first-round pick to Houston (protected if 1-3 or 20-30). Here’s a look at Friday’s schedule.

Raptors at Magic (+6, 204.5)

Toronto still has something to play for: potentially the No. 3 seed in the East. It can’t finish lower than fourth as a division champion. The Raptors ended a two-game losing streak with Wednesday’s 92-74 win in Charlotte. Amir Johnson (right ankle sprain) and Kyle Lowry (back spasms) sat out. Johnson was close to playing. I would think the team would get Lowry back soon to get him ready for the playoffs. Orlando upset the Bulls 105-103 on Wednesday for its third straight win, rallying from a 15-point deficit. Victor Oladipo had 23 points and the game-winning layup with 1.5 seconds left. Toronto leads the season series 3-0 and has won 10 straight overall against Orlando.

Key trends: Toronto is 6-1-1 against the spread in the past eight meetings. The “over/under” has gone over in eight of Orlando’s past 10 at home.

Early lean: Like the way the Magic are playing. They end the losing streak vs. Toronto.



Hornets at Hawks (-10.5, 194.5)

Atlanta won a third straight Wednesday, 114-111 in Brooklyn. The Hawks’ Pero Antic and Thabo Sefolosha were arrested early Wednesday morning at a New York club and didn’t play. Not clear if they will here. All-Star Paul Millsap missed a third straight game and is questionable. Charlotte’s season is essentially over as the Hornets likely will be eliminated in this game. The Hornets lost a second straight Wednesday, 92-74 at home to Toronto in a game that wasn’t that close. Al Jefferson (sore right new), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (left ankle sprain), Cody Zeller (sore right shoulder) and Lance Stephenson (right toe sprain) all sat out. You may not see any of them the rest of the way. Charlotte holds a surprising 2-1 series lead. The Hornets defeated the Hawks 122-119 in double overtime on Nov. 7 at Time Warner Cable Arena and 105-100 on Mar. 28 in Charlotte. The Hawks beat the Hornets 105-75 on Nov. 29 in Atlanta.

Key trends: The home team has covered the past four meetings. The over is 9-2 in Atlanta’s past 11 vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Hornets have essentially given up, so go Atlanta even with nothing to play for. Over.



Wizards at Nets (TBA)

Washington won 119-90 in Philadelphia on Wednesday for its fourth straight win, holding all foes to 93 points or fewer. The Wizards rested John Wall against the 76ers — he had played 208 straight games — yet still set a franchise record by shooting 65.3 percent. Nene missed a third straight game, but Paul Pierce returned after missing three straight. The Nets enter tied with Boston for the No. 7 and 8 spots in the East. Brooklyn lost a tough one at home to the Hawks on Wednesday, 114-111. That ended the Nets’ five-game home winning streak. Washington leads the season series 2-1 and has won two straight in Brooklyn.

Key trends: Washington is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 4-0 in the past four.

Early lean: Assuming the TBA for Wall and to a lesser extent Nene. Don’t think it matters if they play or not. Nets have to have this one.



Celtics at Cavaliers (TBA)

Don’t look for LeBron James in this game or maybe the next. He already has said he’s going to get some rest down the stretch, the Cavs have clinched the No. 2 seed and have nothing to play for. That’s obviously a huge break for Boston as it fights for a playoff spot — these two could meet up in the first round. Cleveland brings a four-game winning streak into this one. Boston won in Detroit 113-103 on Wednesday behind a season-high 34 points from Isaiah Thomas. Cleveland leads the season series, blowing out the Celtics in Ohio and winning a 122-121 thriller in Boston. The teams play again Sunday in Boston.

Key trends: Boston has covered 12 of its past 15 vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 6-2 in Cleveland’s past eight at home.

Early lean: Wait and see who the Cavs play, but I’d take Boston getting anything over probably six points because the Celtics have all the motivation.



Pacers at Pistons (+4.5, 195)

Indiana’s Chris Copeland was stabbed early Wednesday morning at a New York club and obviously won’t play for a while, but he didn’t get many minutes as it was. Indiana won a third straight Wednesday, 102-86 at the Knicks. In his second game of the season, Paul George had 10 points in 15:31 of playing time. Detroit was officially eliminated from the playoffs with a 113-103 home loss to Boston on Wednesday. It’s the first time as a head coach Stan Van Gundy will miss the postseason. Greg Monroe did return after missing 11 games and had 19 points and 10 rebounds. Detroit leads the season series 2-1 but has still lost seven of the past 10 vs. Indiana.

Key trends: The road team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. The over has hit in six of those.

Early lean: Pacers and under.



Bucks at Knicks (+9.5, 187.5)

Milwaukee lost 104-99 to Cleveland on Wednesday, and for some reason Giannis Antetokounmpo didn’t play a second due to coach’s decision. Coach Jason Kidd hasn’t said why. (go to askthebookie) The “Greek Freak” is a big part of this team’s future, so that’s interesting. Kidd said before the game that Antetokounmpo wouldn’t start, saying only, “Just making a change.” I assume he plays in this one. New York lost by 16 at home to Indiana on Wednesday and needs to keep losing to stay ahead of Minnesota for the worst record in the NBA. Milwaukee leads the season series 3-0 and goes for its first sweep since the 2009-10 season.

Key trends: The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 6-1 in the past seven in New York.

Early lean: Bucks will win but won’t cover. Big on under.



Spurs at Rockets (+3, 206.5)

Second of a home-and-home as on Wednesday in San Antonio the Spurs won their ninth straight (all by double digits) 110-98 over Houston, which had won three in a row. Tony Parker had 27 points — despite being listed as questionable — as the Spurs moved within a half-game of the Southwest Division lead shared by Houston and Memphis. James Harden was held to 16 points and only three after the first quarter. However, Houston has won four in a row at home this series, including beating the Spurs by 17 very early in the season.

Key trends: The home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 4-0 in the past four in Houston.

Early lean: Rockets and over.



Suns at Pelicans (-7.5, 195)

Phoenix lost 107-104 in Dallas on Wednesday to be officially eliminated from the playoffs. The Suns can finish no better than a tie with New Orleans and Oklahoma City for the final spot in the Western Conference, and the Pelicans would win that tiebreaker. The Suns were going for their first season sweep of Dallas since 1997-98, the year before Dirk Nowitzki arrived. I worried about a letdown game for New Orleans on Wednesday after beating Golden State on Tuesday, and that indeed happened. The Pelicans were crushed 110-74 by the Grizzlies, their biggest loss of the year. New Orleans still gets the No. 8 seed if it wins out. These teams have split two meetings. In the last one March 19, the Suns tied a franchise record for fewest points in a win, beating the visiting Pelicans 74-72.

Key trends: The home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 4-0 in New Orleans’ past four.

Early lean: Probably my favorite line of night — Pelicans and under.



Kings at Thunder (-14.5, 216.5)

Sacramento lost 103-91 in Utah on Wednesday. Rudy Gay sat out again with a concussion, and DeMarcus Cousins missed a second straight. You hear talk he might just be shut down. Gay could play here. The big news from that loss was the two points scored by 7-foot-5 Kings center Sim Bhullar. That was the first bucket of his career. Bhullar is the first player from India to play in the NBA. The injury-ravaged Thunder appear to be running out of gas, having dropped four straight. They were bombed by the Spurs on Tuesday. About the only positive from that was guard Andre Roberson returned after missing seven games with a sprained left ankle. The Thunder probably have to win out to get into the playoffs. OKC had won 12 straight vs. the Kings before a 104-83 loss in Sacramento on Jan. 7.

Key trends: The Kings have covered just one of the past six meetings. The under is 8-1 in the past nine.

Early lean: If Cousins plays, take the points. Don’t if he doesn’t. Over regardless.



Mavericks at Nuggets (TBA)

Dallas ended a two-game losing streak with a 107-104 win over Phoenix on Wednesday. Tyson Chandler had 12 points and 23 rebounds, two off his season high. Rajon Rondo had 12 points and seven assists for Dallas after leaving the last game against Golden State early with a hyperextended left knee. (go to askthebookie) The Mavericks were without Chandler Parsons for the second straight game because of right knee soreness. Rondo might be rested for a few games, while Parsons isn’t a sure thing to return by the end of the regular season. Dallas is locked into the No. 7 seed, so don’t be surprised if Dirk Nowitzki gets this game off. The Nuggets ended a three-game skid with Wednesday’s rout of the Lakers. These teams have split two meetings. Denver has won four straight at home vs. the Mavs.

Key trends: The Mavs are 6-2 ATS in the past eight in Denver. The over is also 6-2 in those eight.

Early lean: Denver wins because the Mavs simply don’t care.



Grizzlies at Jazz (+2.5, 178.5)

Memphis beat the visiting Pelicans by 36 on Wednesday. Forward Jeff Green did play after leaving Saturday’s loss with back issues. He had 15 points and four rebounds. The 40-point lead in the fourth marked the second time in team history the Grizzlies led by at least 40 points. Utah won for the fifth time in six games, 103-91 against the Kings on Wednesday. Derrick Favors scored 18 points, grabbed 11 rebounds and blocked three shots. Gordon Hayward had just four points and will play limited minutes the rest of the way. Utah leads the season series 2-1 after getting swept last year.

Key trends: The road team is 4-1 in the past five meetings and the under is 4-1 in those.

Early lean: That’s the lowest total I’ve seen in a while. Still go under with two fantastic defensive teams.



Timberwolves at Lakers (+6.5, 202.5)

Minnesota lost an eighth straight on Wednesday, 116-91 in Portland and it needs to lose out to have any shot at the most ping-pong balls in the lottery (it probably won’t happen). Half the Wolves roster sat out against the Blazers due to injury, but Kevin Garnett did return after missing 15 games. Andrew Wiggins had 29 points, his fourth straight with at least 20. The Lakers lost a fifth straight Wednesday, 119-101 in Denver. L.A. leads the season series 2-1, winning the last on March 25 in Minnesota on two Jordan Clarkson free throws with 0.3 seconds left in overtime.

Key trends: The Wolves are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 vs. the West. The under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.

Early lean: Lakers and over between two horrific defenses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Spurs at Rockets

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets (+2.5, 205)

The red-hot San Antonio Spurs are looking to rise up the Western Conference as they attempt to complete a back-to-back sweep of the host Houston Rockets on Friday. San Antonio has posted nine straight victories – including a 110-98 win over Houston on Wednesday – and suddenly sits a half-game behind the Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies for second place in the West.

The Spurs are currently tied for fifth with the Los Angeles Clippers after winning 19 of their past 22 games. Point guard Tony Parker starred with 27 points and forward Kawhi Leonard added 20 as San Antonio controlled Wednesday’s game. Leonard has scored 20 or more points in six of the past seven games, while Houston star James Harden was held to 22 points after topping 30 in three of the previous four games as the Rockets took a hurtful loss. “We’ve just got to play our basketball,” Harden told reporters. “Not worry about what’s going on in the standings and things like that. Just focus on ourselves and we’ll be all right.”

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBATV, KENS (San Antonio), ROOT (Houston)

LINE HISTORY: Books offshore and in Vegas opened at Houston +2.5 with a total of 205.

INJURY REPORT: Spurs – G Marco Belinelli (Ques-Grion), C Tiago Splitter (Ques-Calf) Rockets – F Kostas Papanikolaou (Ques-Ankle)

POWER RANKINGS: Spurs (-11.2) + Rockets (-8.3) + Homecourt (-3) = Rockets -0.1

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: Of course, you have the defending champs making their case for #2 as the Spurs are 12-1 their last 13 – both straight up and against the spread. Very quietly, the Rockets have covered nearly 60% of their games (3rd best ATS record in the league) as they are 6-1 ATS their last seven as a single-digit fave.” – Covers Expert Bryan Power

ABOUT THE SPURS (53-24 SU, 41-36-3 ATS, 37-42 O/U): Parker didn’t appear limited in the least while making 13-of-18 shots one night after playing just 16 minutes after injuring his right Achilles’ tendon against Oklahoma City. Parker said he had a lot of energy after not playing a lot and he was determined to aggressively carry the team and it showed. “He played a really great floor game,” San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich told reporters. “He showed really good patience in distributing the ball, looking for his shots, going to the bucket. He was tough for them to guard.”

ABOUT THE ROCKETS (52-26 SU, 45-33 ATS, 37-41 O/U): Center Dwight Howard (knee) is still on a minutes limit and power forward Donatas Motiejunas has been ruled out for the season due to lower back pain. Motiejunas has missed the last seven games but Houston was holding out hope he might return for the playoffs before it was determined during Wednesday’s re-evaluation that his condition wasn’t improving. Howard is averaging 19 points and 9.5 rebounds and shooting 17-of-25 from the field over the last two games.

TRENDS:

*Spurs are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
*Over is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 home games.
*Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
*Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Houston.

CONSENSUS: 55.56 percent are backing the Spurs -2.5

 

[iromero89]

@WiseguyNetwork

703 Pacers/Pistons o197

901 Chicago Cubs +112

907 NY Mets -114

910 Pirates/Brewers u8

912 Arizona Diamondbacks +130

914 Giants/Padres u7

914 SD Padres -120

918 Cleveland Indians -106

919 Houston Astros +108

920 Houston/Texas u8.5

921 Minnesota Twins +125

924 NY Yankees +107

928 Oakland Athletics -105

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BOB BALFE

Cubs/Rockies – Under 10 runs
Wood/Matzek

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GOODFELLA

Friday Afternoon MLB Team Total

BALTIMORE ORIOLES OVER 4 RUNS (@BOL)