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Woodbine Harness: Friday 3/6 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

3,5/3,4/3,4,10/9 = $12

MEET STATS: 85 - 260 / $458.70 BEST BETS: 11 - 25 / $50.00

SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 24 / $54.10

Best Bet: ARTISTIC MADISON (7th)

Spot Play: JET HOT STUFF (6th)


Race 1

(6) ILLSEEUINCOURT performed decently in the General Brock series then went to London and notched a nice first-over win in the Preferred. Returning to the big track he's the one to beat in here for leading trainer Moreau; top call. (9) HEADSAREGONNA TURN continues to unleash a big kick at the end of his miles but needs to be close enough at the head of the lane which is hard to predict from the 9-hole. He will be coming for a slice, at least. (4) MUSICAL SPELL was called to win and converted from far back vs. weaker. This is tougher but he is a factor in his current sharp condition.

Race 2

(3) WAKE N BAKE was motoring noticeably late in the Miss Vera Bars final and should be able to lay closer here which will give her every chance to turn the tables on anticipated favorite (6) MAPLELEA, who was no match for the winner of the same dash but was a clear 2nd. (2) HAPPY ENDING GAL set the pace early and faltered, also in the same race. She could do better here with less early speed to contend with.

Race 3

(2) MARQUISE DE SARAH missed 3 weeks and still almost prevailed off a tough trip last week. She will be tighter now and is the one to beat. (3) RUBIS PRESCOTT gets very little respect at the windows but it doesn't bother her much as she brings 3 wins and a 2nd in her past 4 starts - most at big odds - into this race. Respect her form and consistency. (1) D GS PESQUERO worked out her usual good trip and fell just short. She should get another great trip here from the rail and share as she typically does.

Race 4

(5) KISS ME OR NOT moves into the Auciello barn and drops in class here. Look for a speed try from this one. (3) MACHET ROCKET also switches barns and drops in class; she could reverse this prediction. (1) MILEYS BIG WORLD showed good improvement late in her mile last week and is an upset possibility tonight.

Race 5

(4) STAR OF THUNDER had his best race of the year last out- now moves into the Moreau barn and gets Lasix; lots to like here. (3) TELLMEHOWYOULIKEIT dropped out of the General Brock series and came up with an improved performance last week. If Drury can keep him closer he might be able to spring the upset. (8) LUCK IS ALL INEED continues to burn win pool money on a weekly basis but is a good one for the bottom of tri keys.

Race 6

(4) JET HOT STUFF was flying in the final yards of last week's mile and has made a similar step up in class off a good mile previously to spring a huge upset. Let's make her tonight's Spot Play. (3) REGALLY READY reversed tactics last week and kicked home with an impressive final 1/4. Keep her on your early pick 4 tickets. (10) LIGHTS GO OUT is obviously the best mare in here but if she leaves 10th again, then what? Your call.

Race 7

(9) ARTISTIC MADISON powered away from her opponents last week earning a lifetime best speed badge in the process. Back in the same class she is very tough to go against. (4) PAID IN CASH had a very productive campaign until December/January when her form soured a bit. She has been freshened and comes in with a nice qualifier under her belt. She looks like a good exotics possibility here. (8) PL HURRICANE made several moves and was still only beat 3/4 of a length. She is another that should get a slice here.

Race 8

(5) JUSTABIT MEAN was ready to go first out but suffered a very long and pressured journey. That likely tightened her up even more and she gets top billing here. (10) CAST NO SHADOW has impressively won all three of her 2015 starts but the 10-hole could be her undoing here. (6) MOREMUNKYBUSINESS was closing rapidly at the end of her mile and should contend here.

Race 9

(3) BET YA raced huge from the 10-hole last week against a mare that took a lifetime mark. Tonight's the night to pounce as she should produce her best of the year so far and (1) ARTISTIC FUSION will be heavily favoured, as usual. The latter is obviously the one to beat, but not unbeatable. (4) PUTMEINTOGO takes a big plunge in class from the Mares Preferred which should also help the price on our choice.

Race 10

There appears to be ample early speed in here to set this up for a capable closer so we'll call (1) VELOCITY LANA on top after her impressive season's debut last week. (4) A LOT OF SENSE is another that can fly late and get a good piece of this. (8) YOUR MY SECRET blew a weaker field away but was unchallenged throughout while taking several breathers. That same trip is highly unlikely here. (7) CONTATA made two moves in her Woodbine debut and hung in there pretty well. She should get a share here. (5) PINOT GRIGIO is 2-2 but the waters get deeper here vs. much better.
 
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Meadowlands: Friday 3/6 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

Best Bet: DW’S NY YANK (6th)

Spot Play: MONEY ON MY MIND (10th)


Race 1

(6) DONNIE DARKO circled last week chasing a fast pace and was gaining late. Burke trainee appears both logical and overdue. (7) DYNAMITE DAME gets another crack with these off a game win. (8) MUSCULARITY is now handled by DiDomenico and he qualified willingly.

Race 2

(7) DOUBLE BUNDY N gave way last week after brushing to the lead and controlling the action. Prior start was decent and the veteran could be an off-the-pace threat here. (3) LUCAS HALL was an easy winner at this level last out and looms the one to beat but there's little value there. (5) BELL A CHICK has been a steady earner in his last few starts.

Race 3

(3) TREVOR'S BEBE dropped to this level last week, had aim but broke late. Mare lacks the class of some others here but she should be in a good striking spot again. (5) DREAM'S BAR gets a touch of class and post relief and should be more involved. (8) HELLO MY DREAM exits stakes action, where she didn't disgrace herself.

Race 4

(8) PROVE UP bumped to this level, took the money but broke. Prior two efforts were solid and he deserves another look. (6) STAN THE MAN gets some needed class relief but he's missed time. (5) EVIL URGES held okay after an uncovered grind last week.

Race 5

(5) WALK THE WALK had been hard to fault until last week's speed break in the Singer final. Muscle Hill offspring can rebound here. (9) KEYSTONE BOCA flattened badly in her last two but she could be a threat here with forward early placement. (7) WAY OUTTA HERE had a decent three-year-old season and he could be ready off a good qualifier.

Race 6

(6) DW'S NY YANK finished very willingly right off the bench. Burke trainee had a huge 2014 season and based on last week's effort it's going to be a promising year. (7) MELADY'S MONET came up flat two back then was scratched sick but he was better last out. (1A) MASTER OF LAW has proven he belongs with the top echelon of trotters for Takter.

Race 7

(1) SUMMER SNOW put in a gutsy uncovered effort last out and was second best. Grey mare has nice back class and trainer Lappe has had a decent meet. (6) WESTERN EMPRESS is competitive stock from Burke who should fit well here. (9) SHEBESTINGIN is probably best here but she's missed time off a scratch-sick.

Race 8

(5) CLEMENTINE DREAM recently added Lasix and drops to a more appropriate level off a decent effort. Worth a look. (3) CHINESE CUISINE should be forwardly placed as Callahan's choice. (4) WINDING HILL closed nicely last out and will be much closer tonight.

Race 9

(4) KEEPING OPTIMISTIC overcame a long trip to upset for the live Harmon/Marohn tandem. With the right trip he can repeat in this competitive event. (1) WESTERN TSUNAMI has done little wrong of late at this level and he looms a solid threat from this inside post. (3) BESTNOTLIE HANOVER returned from Yonkers and turned it around with a game score last week.

Race 10

(1) MONEY ON MY MIND was a bit short in his first start off the layoff. Burke trainee drops and should be tighter tonight. (4) WORTH THE MONEY AS has hit the ticket in his last three versus cheaper and he could rally here with a good setup. (10) DETROIT RAPPER rallied nicely to pick up a share in the Singer final but he needs to find a way to overcome post 10.

Race 11

(4) LAUDERDALE steps up again looking for three straight. Sharp sort has to be respected. (2) IL MAGO was boxed in appearing to have trot last week, his first start of 2015. Clearly he's a huge threat. (6) UPFRONT BILLY is a consistent sort who can take all with the right trip.

Race 12

(9) FUEL CELL is stuck in another outside post but his early speed always puts him in play. (2) FOX VALLEY LEGEND couldn't reach last out; he returns to the Harmon barn with post relief. (1) HS CERTIFIED looks for two straight.

Race 13

(7) ALWAYS AS FAST finished mildly in a needed acclimating start; mare could be ready to show more in this suspect field. (9) SIR LEHIGH Z TAM missed a nose in her latest. (1) THE SUMMER WIND finished mildly last out and is clearly a contender from this spot.
 
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Yonkers: Friday 3/6 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 27 - 180 / $270.50 BEST BETS: 2 - 15 / $10.00

Best Bet: COLOSSAL (4th)

Spot Play: LEAVEUMLADY (7th)


Race 1

(1) THUNDERS FURY took the pocket route home to victory at 28-1 in his most recent trip. He is very capable of making it two straight from the fence. (3) IDEAL DANNY Gelding is knocking at the door. (5) TOUCH AND GO could be in the mix with the drop in class.

Race 2

(7) MAYFLOWERMOONSHINE Pacer has put in two sharp efforts and he has every right to pounce and score over these. (3) VIPER HANOVER Very consistent gelding should be a major factor in here. (1) MAGNUS DEO moves to the rail off a very good score last time around.

Race 3

(3) AUTOMATIC SLIMS Meadowlands shipper was second best in his last two trips to the post. Could find the half-mile oval to his liking. (1) DUKE DID IT has hit the board in his last three starts and the rail makes him a player. (2) FOOL TO CRY was caught at the wire last time out; capable.

Race 4

(4) COLOSSAL Gelding had dead aim last out but had to settle for the placing; all systems go to move forward. (1) LEGENDS LUCK returns to the rail slot and gets the services of the red-hot Dan Dube; threat. (5) IN COMMANDO put in a mild bid recently; watch out.

Race 5

(3) SHADIOS did show some speed in his last try. With a perfect trip, this guy can take home top honors. (4) NATURAL LEDA gets serious post relief and that might help his cause; factor. (2) HYPNOTIST closed sharply to nail down the show spot in his latest.

Race 6

Will try (1) ROCKAROUND SUE to get back to her winning ways. Had trouble last time out but can turn things around from the pole position. (8) CAROLSIDEAL just keeps on winning and by far is the one to deny. (7) SAYITALL BB makes her 2015 debut off a sharp qualifier at The Meadowlands on 2/19; beware.

Race 7

(3) LEAVEUMLADY tired in the stretch drive last time out but this might be a perfect spot for this gal to take these to task for all the cash. (6) GROUNDED moved out before the three quarter mark and mowed them down for all the glory recently; main danger. (1) ADDYS WAY Jersey invader should fare well from the fence.

Race 8

(3) REQUEST FOR PAROLE leaves the rail slot, gets Dube and if this pacing mare gets the golden trip, she will prove best over these. (1) MONKEY ON MY WHEEL She was sent down the road last time around to grab the victory; contender again. (4) ABS TO ENVY just held on for win honors last out; don't overlook.

Race 9

(8) HAYWORTH BLUE CHIP gets the eight slot for this event. 6-year-old mare needs a better trip. So if that's the case, she could mow these down when the smoke clears. (4) NEFERTITI BLUE CHIP moves down the ladder and that might help her cause; big threat. (3) HOT LIST could make some noise against this group; watch out.

Race 10

(4) FRITZIE PIC UP MAN got the lead in the stretch but tried down the lane and held the fourth spot. Now Sears has the assignment and he might prove best. (8) SMOOTH CRIMINAL California invader was sharp in his last trip; main danger. (6) STOLEN CAR is knocking at the door based on his last two tries.

Race 11

Will give (4) MC DYNAMITE a shot to best these. Gelding raced evenly in his most recent start and is very capable of getting the job done with a pounce and score trip. (1) A J CORBELLI Very sharp gelding took home top prize last time around and will be the one to fear again. (7) O SUNDLAND was sent down the road in his most recent trip for all the marbles.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Friday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (5th) Damage Control, 6-1
(8th) Beatle Boots, 3-1

Charles Town (2nd) Texas Glitz, 3-1
(3rd) Devils Dinero, 4-1

Delta Downs (1st) Elite Rhythm, 3-1
(7th) Shyloh's Friend, 9-2

Fair Grounds (4th) Sebs Blondie, 5-1
(8th) Shesaheadatthebar, 4-1


Golden Gate Fields (5th) Tough Ray, 3-1
(7th) Nevaeh's Promise, 3-1


Gulfstream Park (4th) Rosie's Faith, 7-2
(6th) Unbridled Ocean, 9-2


Hawthorne (1st) Aly's Bluffing, 4-1
(5th) Lady Dozer, 7-2


Laurel Park (4th) Why Me, 6-1
(9th) Aji, 7-2


Mahoning Valley (3rd) Corporate Comet, 7-2
(5th) Queen's Escort, 3-1


Oaklawn Park (3rd) Forever Since, 5-1
(4th) Alshujaa, 9-2


Penn National (1st) Katy's Kitty, 7-2
(8th) Bo Bull, 7-2


Sam Houston (2nd) Too Much Duck, 3-1
(6th) Hootie Pie, 3-1


Santa Anita (1st) Open Day Light, 4-1
(7th) Lost Bus, 3-1


Tampa Bay Downs (5th) King Gatto, 3-1
(6th) Guyana Star, 7-2


Turfway Park (3rd) Truebill, 3-1
(6th) Miss Slewpy, 6-1
 
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NBA Win Total Update - March

We’ve reached the second half of the 2014-15 NBA regular season and every team has played over 70% of its schedule.

Before the marathon of the 82-game regular season began, the LVH SuperBook at the Westgate Las Vegas Resort released NBA Win Totals for all 30 teams.

We checked in on teams after the 1st quarter (20 games) and took notice that the Western Conference was dominating with nine teams on pace to go 'over' their win total expectations set by the oddsmakers. Since then, a lot has changed in the West and the East.

Last season, Phoenix was the first team to earn a result on its win total. This year's version of the Suns is Milwaukee, who posted a 30-23 record in the first-half of the season.

Along with the Bucks, the Atlanta Hawks have eclipsed their season win total. The Cavaliers cashed 'under' tickets of 58.5 with an overtime loss at Houston, as the team compiled a 1-7 record without LeBron James in the lineup in late December and early January before going on a remarkable run.

The Knicks became the first team to cash for ‘under’ bettors. New York had a win total of 40.5 and it sits with a league-worst 12-48 record.

The Wizards were in good shape to finish 'over' their win total of 49.5 on January 27 with a 31-15 record (on pace to win 55 games). However, Washington has stumbled to a 3-12 record in the past 15 contests to slip to 34-27, as the team is on pace to capture just 45 victories.

The second-half is underway and there a few teams on the cusp for both ‘over’ and ‘under’ outcomes.

‘Over’

Utah – needs 2 wins
Boston – needs 3 wins
Philadelphia – needs 3 wins
Golden State – needs 4 wins

‘Under’

San Antonio – needs 3 losses
Chicago – needs 4 losses
L.A. Clippers – needs 5 losses



2014-15 NBA Win Totals (**Records as of 3/4/15**)

Team Win Total Current Record Record on 2/19/15 Projection
Atlanta Hawks 40.5 48-12 43-11
Boston Celtics 26.5 24-35 20-31
Brooklyn Nets 41.5 25-34 21-31
Charlotte Hornets 45.5 26-33 22-30
Chicago Bulls 55.5 38-23 33-20
Cleveland Cavaliers 58.5 39-24 33-21
Dallas Mavericks 49.5 40-22 36-19
Denver Nuggets 40.5 22-39 20-33
Detroit Pistons 36.5 23-37 21-33
Golden State Warriors 50.5 47-12 42-9
Houston Rockets 49.5 41-20 36-17
Indiana Pacers 32.5 26-34 21-33
Los Angeles Clippers 55.5 40-22 35-19
Los Angeles Lakers 31.5 16-44 13-40
Memphis Grizzlies 48.5 43-17 39-14
Miami Heat 43.5 27-33 22-30
Milwaukee Bucks 24.5 32-29 30-23
Minnesota Timberwolves 25.5 13-47 11-42
New Orleans Pelicans 41.5 33-28 27-26
New York Knicks 40.5 12-48 10-43
Oklahoma City Thunder 57.5 34-27 28-25
Orlando Magic 28.5 19-43 17-39
Philadelphia 76ers 15.5 13-48 12-41
Phoenix Suns 42.5 32-30 29-25
Portland Trail Blazers 48.5 40-19 36-17
Sacramento Kings 30.5 21-38 18-34
San Antonio Spurs 56.5 37-23 34-19
Toronto Raptors 49.5 38-23 36-17
Utah Jazz 25.5 24-36 19-34
Washington Wizards 49.5 34-27 33-21
 
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NBA Preview: Mavericks (40-23) at Warriors (47-12)

Date: March 06, 2015 10:30 PM EDT

The last time Stephen Curry faced the Mavericks in Oakland, the All-Star put on a show that Golden State Warriors fans will certainly remember and Dallas would love to forget.

Now Curry seeks another memorable outing as he attempts to lead the Western Conference-best Warriors to their 24th win in 25 home games Friday night with a sixth straight victory over the Mavericks.

After his team fell behind by 22 points early, Curry put together the highest-scoring performance of his career at home by going 10 for 16 from 3-point range in a 128-114 victory over Dallas on Feb. 4.

The MVP candidate scored 26 in the third quarter alone and shot 16 of 26 for the game en route to a season-high 51. He ended up just shy of the career-high 11 3s and 54 points he had at Madison Square Garden on Feb. 27, 2013.

'He had one of those extra-special nights," Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle said after that meeting. "I've never seen anybody in this league hit shots like that from that distance."

Carlisle would rather not relive that performance at Oracle Arena, where the Warriors (47-12) are an NBA-best 25-2.

Curry had another late charge to key Wednesday's 102-93 win over Milwaukee in the opener of a three-game homestand. After missing eight of his first 10 shots, he knocked down three straight 3-pointers to give Golden State an 85-75 fourth-quarter lead.

The star point guard ended up with 19 points and 11 assists in his 60th career game with at least five 3s and five assists.

"I used to watch it with Michael Jordan," coach Steve Kerr said. "On nights where he missed 10 shots in a row, when everyone else would just clam up, he just all of a sudden would find that incredible confidence. It's unbreakable. Steph has that.'

Draymond Green had 23 points and 12 rebounds against the Bucks, becoming the first Warriors player with at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, three blocked shots and three steals since Donyell Marshall in March 2000.

Klay Thompson, who scored 17, has averaged 23.3 points and hit 13 of 30 from 3-point range in his last three meetings with Dallas (40-23).

Curry led the way with 29 points in a 105-98 road victory in the first matchup Dec. 13. Thompson chipped in with 25 and Green scored 20 to go along with eight rebounds.

The Mavericks hope to avoid losing four straight on the road for the first time since a six-game slide in December 2012. They've also dropped three of four overall following Thursday's 94-75 loss at Portland to begin a three-game West Coast trip.

'We've got to stick together when it's not going well," Carlisle said. "We've got to fight through this.'

Guards Monta Ellis and Rajon Rondo particularly struggled, totaling 22 points on 10-of-33 shooting. Ellis has shot 15 for 41 (36.6 percent) in the two meetings with his former club, while Rondo did not play in last month's meeting due to injury.

Tyson Chandler pulled down 14 rebounds Thursday in his return from a three-game absence due to a left hip injury, but Chandler Parsons (15.4 ppg) isn't expected back from a left ankle injury that has cost him six games until Sunday at the earliest.

Parsons could be a big loss for the Mavericks since he's averaged 23.5 points over his last four visits to Oakland.

The Warriors have won six of seven home matchups, including the last two by a combined 37.
 
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NBA Game of the Day: Cavaliers at Hawks

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks (+1, 200)

A preview of a potential Eastern Conference playoff showdown is on tap Friday when the Atlanta Hawks host the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Hawks have won five straight and are running away with the East, but the Cavaliers are one of the contenders they might have to go through in the playoffs. Cleveland, which has won two straight and six of eight, is one of three teams battling for second place, far behind Atlanta.

The Hawks keep rolling along even when the odds are stacked against them — they erased an 18-point deficit in a 104-96 home win over Houston on Tuesday. "It's a credit to our guys," center Al Horford told reporters. "Guys were relentless, kept fighting." The Hawks have won two of three meetings this season and four straight at home against the Cavaliers.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, FSN Ohio (Cleveland), SportSouth (Atlanta)

LINE HISTORY: Most books opened the line at ATL +1, but some had moved it to +1.5 soon after. The total opened at 200 across the books.

INJURY REPORT: Cavs - F Shawn Marion (Early March, hip), C Anderson Varejao (Out for season, Achilles). Hawks - G Thaba Sefolosha (Mid March, calf).

POWER RANKINGS: Cavs (-9.4) + Hawks (-11.4) + home court (-3.0) = Hawks -5.0

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Missed free throws aside, no one is moving up the board faster right now than LeBron and company, and truth be told, this has been the best team in the league over the last month and a half. The Hawks became the first team to clinch a playoff spot thanks to Tuesday's come from behind win over Houston. They also continue to maintain the league's best SU and ATS record, yet aren't even considered the favorite to win their own conference!" Bryan Power.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (39-24 SU, 31-32 ATS, 23-39-1 O/U): Cleveland is an NBA-best 20-4 since Jan. 15 and is coming off an impressive 120-112 win at Toronto on Wednesday. LeBron James (26.3 points, 7.3 assists, 5.7 rebounds) continues to lead the charge, but Kyrie Irving (21.7 points, 5.3 assists) and Kevin Love (17 points, 10.2 rebounds) combined for 48 points against the Raptors. It marked only the sixth time this season all three stars topped 20 points in the same game.


ABOUT THE HAWKS (48-12 SU, 39-20-1 ATS, 30-30 O/U): Atlanta is one of the top defensive teams in the league and has held all five opponents under 100 points during its winning streak. The Hawks also are one of the most balanced teams in the NBA with all five starters averaging double-digit scoring. Forward Paul Millsap (16.9 points, eight rebounds) and point guard Jeff Teague (16.8 points, 7.3 assists) lead the way, but Horford has averaged 17.5 points and 10.5 points over the past two games and Dennis Schroder has averaged 16 points and nine assists over those two contests.


TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Eastern Conference.
* Hawks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central.
* Under is 5-0 in Hawks last five vs. Eastern Conference.

CONSENSUS: 55.05 percent are backing the Cavaliers -1.
 
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NCAAB Big 12 Analysis
By Jim Feist

Tournament play is on the horizon! It's the start of a wild few weeks with conference tournament play helping to whittle the field. In the Big 12, Kansas has been the dominant team again, but there is a logjam of teams vying for the spots below the Jayhawks. Here's a look at some of the top teams of the Big 12.

Kansas: The Jayhawks have been a powerhouse team, tops in scoring (81 ppg) in the conference and a +8.5 scoring margin, though they have not been invincible with losses at Oklahoma State (67-62) and at West Virginia (62-61). Sophomore guard Frank Mason III (12 ppg) has led the way on a team with great balance, second in the conference in field goal shooting, tops in field goal defense.

He’s not alone, of course, with 6-8 senior Perry Ellis (13 ppg, 7 rpg), 6-5 sophomore Wayne Selden (10 ppg) and 6-8 freshman Cliff Alexander blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. Kansas might not be as good as last year’s squad with Andrew Wiggins, but they beat Utah (63-60) and Michigan State (61-56) in tough non-conference games, while getting blasted by Kentucky, 72-40 (who hasn’t?).

Iowa State: The Cyclones are not big up front and not especially strong on defense. Yet, what a talented, deep team for Fred Hoiberg, deadly on offense, running opponents into the ground with a top 10 offense again. This is an experienced group led by 6-8 junior Georges Niang (14.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg), 6-4 junior Naz Long, 6-6 senior Bryce Dejean-Jones (12.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and 6-6 senior Dustin Hogue. This group is Top 5 in assists in the nation for the second straight year. Iowa State is on a 54-26-1 run over the total!

They are tops in the Big 12 in field goal shooting. One concern is road play, where they’ve struggled, especially on defense. They allowed 94 in a loss at Oklahoma and 89 at Kansas. Iowa State even allowed Texas Tech to hit 11 three-pointers in a 78-73 upset. Something to keep in mind come Big 12 tourney time: Iowa State is 47-32-1 ATS against the Big 12.

Oklahoma: Coach Lon Kruger has a run-and-gun Sooners squad that is tough, led by 6-4 junior Isaiah Cousins (11.7 ppg, 5 rpg) and 6-4 junior Buddy Hield (17 ppg). They can be relied on at the free throw line in close games, 74% at the charity strip (No. 1 in the Big 12). They are terrific on offense and the defense has improved, second in the Big 12 in field goal shooting allowing 38%, plus fourth at defending the three-pointer allowing .365% shooting.

A pair of 6-8 frontcourt forces in junior Ryan Spangler (11 ppg, 8 rpg) and TaShawn Thomas (11 ppg, 6 rpg) give the Sooners good balance all around. The frontcourt is not big, however, and they’ve lost to strong rebounding teams Baylor (69-58), Wisconsin (69-56), and Kansas (85-78). They also had 22 turnovers in an 86-65 loss at West Virginia.

Texas: The Longhorns are a young team for Rick Barnes with a monster frontcourt that few teams look forward to playing. Sophomore guard Isaiah Taylor (12.8 ppg) leads in scoring, but the rebounding muscle is fierce with 6-11 freshman Myles Turner (11.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg), 6-8 senior Jonathon Holmes (11 ppg, 6.5 rpg) and 6-9, 285-lb junior Cameron Ridley (8.6 ppg, 5 rpg). Texas is tops in the Big 12 in blocks and second in rebounding margin.

Even during their four-game mid-season skid they lost by 3 at No. 15 Iowa State and in overtime by a basket to Oklahoma State. They have wins over UConn and Iowa and lost in OT to Stanford. And in a loss at Kentucky (26-26 at the half) the Longhorns ended up with a 42-31 rebound edge, including 16-12 on the offensive glass. How many teams can say that after facing the mighty Wildcats?

Baylor: Few teams can pound the glass like Baylor, Top 5 most of the year in rebounds led by 6-7 junior Taurean Prince (13 ppg), 6-8, 280-lb junior Rico Gathers (11 ppg, 12 rpg) and 6-6 senior Royce O'Neale (6 rpg). Baylor lost both meetings with Kansas, but dropped a 56-55 thriller in one of them. The Bears were 8 of 15 on 3-pointers, but 10 of 38 inside the arc. They’d love a third shot at the Jayhawks in tourney play.
 
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March Madness is NOW! Betting this week's NCAAB conference tournaments
By JASON LOGAN

For those that think March Madness doesn’t begin until the selection committee has their say on that tense Sunday in mid-March, we say “WRONG”.

The official and oft-forgotten kickoff to the NCAA postseason begins this week when 13 mid-major conferences open their respective conference tournaments. Starting Tuesday, these leagues will fill out the first outright selections of the national tournament and, along the way, likely burst the bubble of a few major conference programs on the NCAA fringe.

Chances are you haven’t paid attention to these little leagues during the course of the season, since many of their games go without odds. Hell, you may not know some of them even existed. So we’re giving you a head start when it comes to capping these conference tournaments, pointing out the favorites, value underdog bets and live long shots to win.

America East (March 4, 8, 14)

Favorite: Albany Great Danes (21-8, 15-1) – With the America East a campus-sites tournament – no host school – Albany has home court to the finals. The Great Danes give up just 59 points per game at home – ninth lowest in the country.

Underdog: Stony Brook Seawolves (21-10, 12-4) – The lone conference blemish on Albany’s resume comes courtesy of the Seawolves, who ride a six-game winning streak into the postseason. Momentum is worth its weight in gold come March.

Long Shot: New Hampshire Wildcats (18-11, 11-5) – The Wildcats lost twice to Albany by a combined three points and have a win over Stony Brook. New Hampshire can knock down the 3-pointer and defend against it – two very key stats for playoff basketball.

Atlantic Sun (March 3-8)

Favorite: North Florida Ospreys -130 (20-11, 12-2) – North Florida gets home-court throughout this tournament, and can pile on the points in a hurry – averaging 83 points per home game (fifth in the country). It won both meetings with Florida Gulf Coast, who many pick to win this tournament.

Underdog: Florida Gulf Coast Eagles +270 (21-9, 11-3) – The Eagles stumbled at the end of the year with two straight losses. Florida Gulf Coast is known more for its defense (39.1 FG% def) then the high-flying offense it wowed the nation with two years ago.

Long shot: South Carolina Upstate Spartans +370 (21-10, 8-6) – North Florida’s two conference losses came to the Spartans, who also played FGCU tough. South Carolina Upstate has a plus-5.4 scoring margin and the conference’s top scorer Ty Greene, who dropped 39 on North Florida and 31 on FGCU.

Big South (March 3-8)

Favorite: Charleston Southern Buccaneers (19-10, 13-5) – The Buccaneers locked up the No. 1 seed with a thrilling triple-overtime win against High Point Saturday. Charleston Southern can fill it up at home (averaging 80 points) and lives by the 3-pointer, and dies by the 3-pointer (27.4 3-pt attempts – second most).

Underdog: Radford Highlanders (21-10, 12-6) – Radford grabbed the No. 4 seed with a win in its season finale. The Highlanders have two wins over High Point and a road win at Charleston and boast a deep rotation with seven players averaging 5.9 points or more.

Long shot: Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs (18-13, 10-8) – The Bulldogs managed to win 18 games despite being ranked among the worst defensive programs in the country (74.2 points against). Gardner-Webb has been able to overwhelm the top teams in the conference with its explosive offense (75.1 points per game).

Colonial Athletic Association (March 6-9)

Favorite: James Madison Dukes +1,000 (19-12, 12-6) – Even though the Dukes are ranked No. 4 in the conference tournament, they take six wins in their last seven games (5-2 ATS) into the postseason. That momentum separates them from a deadlocked pack at the top of the conference. William & Mary are +200 faves to win the Colonial at the Superbook in Las Vegas but dropped three of its last five games of the season. The CAA is much more wide open than the odds would indicate.

Underdog: NC Wilmington Seahawks +600 (17-12, 12-6) – The Seahawks crapped the bed in the season finale, losing to Elon but has knocked off Northeastern and James Madison in recent weeks and sits No. 2 in the tournament seeding, and will play a banged-up Drexel team (missing CAA leading scorer Damion Lee) or a 8-23 College of Charleston squad.

Long shot: Elon Phoenix +1,200 (14-17, 6-12) – Elon came on late in the season with three straight wins to finish up, beating Northeastern and UNCW in that span. The Phoenix also beat No. 1-seed William & Mary earlier this year, who they will likely face in Round 2 of the CAA tournament.

Horizon League (March 3-10)

Favorite: Valparaiso Crusaders EVEN (26-5, 13-3) – Since Valpo won the league, it gets to host the tournament - a sweet deal for a team that went 13-1 at home. The Crusaders don’t budge much on defense and don’t give away second looks at the basket either, allowing just 7.5 offensive rebounds per game.

Underdog: Green Bay Phoenix +150 (23-7, 12-4) – Seeded No. 2, Green Bay avoided a potential meeting with Cleveland State in the semifinals (lost both games to the Vikings). The Phoenix won the regular season title last year but were upset in the opener. They’ll be cautious of a letdown this time around.

Long shot: Detroit Titans +350 (14-17, 7-9) – Detroit is sitting No. 5 in the tournament and no one ahead of them wants them to advance. The Titans have victories over Valparaiso, Cleveland State, and Oakland and was competitive in February with a 5-2 ATS record. Detroit is a dangerous 3-point threat at 39.1 percent in league games.

Metro Atlantic Athletic (March 5-9)

Favorite: Iona Gaels +120 (24-7, 17-3) – The Gaels can light up the scoreboard with an offense that posts 79.6 points per game – seventh in the country. Iona did, however, lay an egg in the season finale to St. Peter’s, marking the fourth straight game the Gaels have failed to cover.

Underdog: Rider Broncs +500 (21-10, 15-5) – Rider was one of the best bets during the regular season, going 17-9 ATS in its 16 lined games. The Broncs had a strong true road record at 11-4 and played some heavyweights in Kansas and Michigan State early in the year.

Long shot: Niagara Purple Eagles +300 (8-21, 7-13) – The Purple Eagles picked up half their wins in the final four games of the season, including a win over Rider, holding opponents to about 40 percent shooting. Niagara also played Iona to a one-point game, losing 80-79 at home. Momentum breeds upsets.

Missouri Valley Conference (March 5-8)

Favorite: Wichita State Shockers -300 (27-3, 17-1) – Wichita State is going dancing regardless of their tournament turnout. Wichita State proved it was top dog in the MVC with a convincing win over Northern Iowa and has covered in five straight heading into the postseason.

Underdog: Northern Iowa Panthers +250 (27-3, 16-2) – While UNI’s record is very close to WSU, Saturday’s 14-point defeat to the Shockers showed how much space is really between these programs. The Panthers give up just 54.6 points per game – fourth lowest in the country – and seemingly have an easier side of the bracket.

Long shot: Illinois State Redbirds +800 (15-15, 11-7) – With ranked rivals above them in the standings, Illinois State is giving great value in the MVC tournament. The Redbirds bring a four-game winning streak into the postseason and covered in both losses to Wichita State.

Northeast Conference (March 5,8,11)

Favorite: St. Francis (NY) Terriers (21-10, 15-3) – The Terriers limp into the postseason off a loss and a slim overtime victory in their final two games of the schedule. St. Francis has home court throughout the tournament, losing just one conference game in front of its fans.

Underdog: Robert Morris Colonials (16-14, 12-6) – Robert Morris takes a three-game roll into the tournament and was the lone Northeast team to come out of Peter Aquilone Court in Brooklyn with a victory. Rodney Pryor is playing the best basketball in the conference averaging 25.5 points in the last four games.

Long shot: Sacred Heart Pioneers (15-16, 9-9) – Sacred Heart closed the campaign with back-to-back wins and went 6-2 in its last eight games of the schedule. The Pioneers love to push the tempo, averaging 73.4 points on 72.3 possessions per game – running the 20th fastest tempo in college hoops.

Ohio Valley Conference (March 4-7)

Favorite: Murray State Racers -125 (26-4, 16-0) – The Racers were perfect in conference play but all that could be for nothing if Murray State can’t get the job done in the postseason. The Racers can put up the points - 78.8 per game – but do have flaws on defense and at the charity stripe.

Underdog: Belmont Bruins +260 (19-10, 11-5) – The Bruins earned the No. 3 seed in the tournament thanks to a late-season push that won four straight, including a victory over Eastern Kentucky. Belmont can also fill the stats sheet but hasn’t been its best away from home.

Long shot: Morehead State Eagles +260 (15-16, 10-6) – Morehead State also brings momentum into the postseason with three wins in a row. Those victories did come against the bottom half of the OVC East, but the Eagles have a swarming defense that turns mistakes into easy offense – forcing a league-high 14.9 turnovers per game.

Patriot League (March 3,5,8,11)

Favorite: Colgate Raiders +270 (15-16, 12-6) – Colgate finished as the No. 2 seed but has five wins in its last seven games, and those two losses have come by a combined three points. The Raiders also won both meetings with No. 1 Bucknell (+165) this season. This team can bring the rain from downtown, averaging 7.8 3-pointers per game on 40.2 percent shooting – ninth best in the country.

Underdog: Lehigh Mountain Hawks +425 (16-13, 10-8) – Lehigh takes on American U in Round 2, a team it beat in its last meeting, then would likely face Colgate in the semifinal. The Mountain Hawks have given the Raiders a tough go in their two clashes, and have a convincing win over No. 1 Bucknell. It could happen for the No. 3 seed.

Long shot: Lafayette Leopards +500 (17-12, 9-9) – The Leopards are dead eyes from downtown, shooting 40.3 percent from distance and knocking down almost eight 3-pointers per game. Lafayette ranks 26th in scoring at 75 points per game and took down Bucknell, Colgate and Lehigh this season.

Southern Conference (March 6-9)

Favorite: Wofford Terriers -125 (25-6, 16-2) – Wofford runs a very methodical offense, sucking almost every second off the shot clock. That’s helped the Terriers limit opponents to just 59.9 points per game. They bring a five-game winning streak into the postseason, going 4-1 ATS in that span.

Underdog: Chattanooga Mocs +300 (22-9, 15-3) – The Mocs run at a much quicker tempo than their Southern rivals, scoring 72.8 points per game. They won their last meeting at home versus Wofford and boast four players averaging double figures.

Long shot: Samford Bulldogs +1,500 (13-18, 6-12) – Samford has a tough slate of schedule to finish the season, playing five of its final seven games on the road. The Bulldogs went 3-4 in that span with a 5-2 ATS mark. Samford has a freshman star in Christen Cunningham, who is playing his best ball of the season.

Summit League (March 7-10)

Favorite: South Dakota State -110 /North Dakota State +500 (21-9, 12-4/20-9, 12-4) – Nearly identical records from these rivals. Since they’re seeding No. 1 and No. 2, there’s a very good chance we see them in the final. Both closed the regular season with a loss. They split the season series but No. 1 SDSU has the softer side of the bracket this March.

Underdog: Oral Roberts Golden Eagles +500 (17-13, 10-6) – Oral Roberts took a win over NDSU last week and closed with a victory over Denver. The Golden Eagles are without standout guard Korey Billbury, who was suspended at the end of the year. And while they’ve done OK without him in those two games, they will miss him in the backcourt when the postseason pressure builds.

Long shot: IUPU - Ft. Wayne Mastodons +500 (16-13, 9-7) – The Mastodons have resume wins over North and South Dakota State and come into the postseason on an 8-2 run, going 9-1 ATs in that stretch. IPFW can win with offense or lock teams down on defense.

West Coast Conference (March 5-10)

Favorite: Gonzaga Bulldogs -300 (29-2, 17-1) – The Bulldogs are coming off a loss to BYU in the season finale, which probably cost them a shot at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Gonzaga gets it done on both ends of the floor and that loss to the Cougars is likely a wake-up call for Mark Few’s squad.

Underdog: BYU Cougars +300 (23-8, 13-5) – The Cougars may have just punched their ticket to the Big Dance with that win over Gonzaga, and run the risk of a letdown in their opener. Brigham Young is the top scoring team in the country but doesn’t play much in the way of defense.

Long shot: Pepperdine Waves +1,000 (17-12, 10-8) – Behind the Zags, St, Mary’s and BYU, Pepperdine is playing in the shadows of those WCC heavyweights. The Waves won both games with the Cougars, knocked off the Gaels and gave the Bulldogs fits. They’ve held their last four opponents to an average of just 54 points.
 
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Mid-Major Tournaments
By Bruce Marshall

After recently providing a look-ahead to the postseason extravaganzas conducted by the major conferences two weeks ago, we provide a quick preview for the conference tournaments of the lower-echelon Division I leagues in this edition.

The rather recent introduction of two events (the CollegeInsider.com Tourney, or CIT, and the College Basketball Invitational, or CBI) has provided more postseason slots and thus more opportunities for entries from the low-major leagues to have teams participate in tourneys other than the NCAA and NIT. Several of these loops are now sending multiple entries to the postseason, so it behooves handicappers to begin paying attention to these sides before they enter either the Big Dance, NIT, CBI, or CIT.

Many Las Vegas sports books, which routinely post numbers on several "added" conferences (Big Sky, Metro-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, Summit, SoCon), will be including prices on almost all of these minor conference tournaments as well. Note that many of the upcoming conference tournaments will also be televised (the introduction of ESPN-3, which streams on computers, has added countless more college hoops viewing opportunities and will be providing added coverage for many of the lower-rung D-I conference tourneys).

We've listed below, by conference alphabetical order, upcoming tournament specifics for those lower-profile Division I leagues. Also included are any teams that enjoy home-court tourney edges; the top contenders in each loop, noted by italics, with any clear-cut favorite or co-favorite accompanied by an *; and last season's conference results in the NCAA, NIT, CBI, and CIT. Before Selection Sunday, we'll also review how these leagues have fared in recent Big Dance action.

March Madness...it's here!

AMERICA EAST...Top 8 teams qualify. Quarterfinals, semis, and final March 6, 8, 14 at home of highest seed for each matchup. Albany enters as the top seed. UMass-Lowell remains in its transition period from Div. II and is ineligible for the conference tournament.

Top contenders - Albany*, Stony Brook, Vermont, New Hampshire.

Notes...Defending tourney champ Albany turned on the jets once conference play commenced and proceeded to run away with the regular-season crown, earning home-court edge for as long as it stays alive in this event. Coach Will Brown's Great Danes have the ability to balance the floor because of the interior scoring threat provided by 6-6 PF Sam Rowley (14.3 ppg & 53% from floor; one of two returning starters from last season), which prevents foes from ganging up on Gs Peter Hooley (13.7 ppg) and 6-2 juco sparkplug Evan Singletary (12.7 ppg). Albany also didn't allow an A-E foe to crack the 70-point barrier until Vermont did it in the final regular-season game.

Stony Brook was the only league rep to beat the Great Danes (and did so on the road) and was good enough to win at Washington in pre-league play when the Huskies were still undefeated and ranked just outside of the national top ten. Beastly 6-8, 260-lb. jr. C Jameel Warney ranks among the nation's rebound leaders (5th at 11.5 pg) and recently exploded for a 32-point, 18-rebound stat line against Hartford. Warney's presence has helped the Seawolves to the nation's No. 4 ranking in rebound margin (+8.8 rpg). Puncher's chances go to Vermont, whose airtight defense allows only 57.6 ppg (ranking 13th nationally), and New Hampshire, which played Albany to the wire in both regular-season meetings, losing by 1 and 2 points, respectively.

Last year...NCAA - Albany lost vs. Florida, 67-55. NIT - Vermont lost at Georgia, 63-56. CBI - Stony Brook lost to Siena, 66-55.

ATLANTIC SUN...Tourney March 3-8 at homecourts of higher seeds. Florida Gulf Coast is the top seed.

Top contenders - North Florida, Florida Gulf Coast, South Carolina-Upstate.

Notes...By virtue of last week's 76-62 win over FGCU in Jacksonville, North Florida has earned home-court edge in the A-Sun Tourney. The Ospreys were flying down the stretch, winning five straight to close the regular-season and catch Gulf Coast, relying on a balanced lineup featuring four DD scorers, led by soph G Dallas Moore (15.4 ppg). UNF can be very hard to beat when its triples are falling, as the Ospreys hovered near 40% beyond the arc all season and rank 20th nationally in three-point accuracy (39.6%). Everyone in the lineup can step back and hit 3s. FGCU still has some of the remnants of Andy Enfield's "Dunk City" team that made a longshot run to the Sweet 16 two years ago and made it to the NIT last season for HC Joey Dooley. Senior Gs Bernard Thompson (13.6 ppg) and Brett Comer (12.4 ppg) both played key roles in the unexpected run for Enfield two years ago.

USC-Upstate should at least return to another minor postseason event after winning 21 games this season following advancement to the CIT last March. Note that the Spartans beat North Florida in both regular-season meetings, won at Georgia Tech in pre-league play, and possess the Sun's top scorer in sr. G Ty Greene (20.1 ppg).

Last year...NCAA - Mercer won vs. Duke, 78-71; lost vs. Tennessee, 83-63. NIT - FGCU lost at Florida State, 58-53. CIT - East Tennessee State won vs. Chattanooga, 79-66; lost vs. Towson, 63-60; USC-Upsate lost vs. Towson, 63-60.

BIG SKY...Tourney March 12-14 at home of regular-season champion, unless that happens to be Sacramento State, which will not be able to host at its home Hornet's Nest Gym (capacity 1200) because of size limitations. If Sac State wins the Sky, the tourney could be held at any of three other locations, including the Reno Events Center, San Joaquin Delta College, or McClellan Park Gym. Top eight teams qualify.

Top contenders - Sac State, Eastern Washington, Montana, Northern Arizona.

Notes...The Sky's regular-season race remains up for grabs into the final games this weekend. Note that Sky notched a couple of eye-opening non-league wins before New Year's when Eastern Washington won at Indiana and Northern Arizona won at Saint Mary's. For most of the season, regional observers have regarded EWU as the team to beat, with G Tyler Harvey (22.8 ppg) leading the nation in scoring and PF Venky Jois (16.8 ppg) providing the interior scoring threat for the Eagles, who shoot almost 48% from the floor. But seasoned Sac State, with four seniors and a junior in a starting lineup that returned all five starters from a year ago for HC Brian Katz, has stayed near the top of the table all season. The Hornets have a crackling backcourt led by Gs Mikh McKinney (19 ppg), Dylan Garrity (13.6 ppg), and defensive stopper Cody Demps, shoots even better from the floor (48.4%; ranks 13th) than EWU, and also hits 40.5% beyond the arc (ranks 6th).

Montana has been a pleasant surprise for first-year HC and alum Travis DeCuire, who returned only one regular starter, G Jordan Gregory, now scoring a Grizzlies-best 17.2 ppg, but has also been able to benefit from former Washington and juco transfer PF Martin Breuning, a German import who has emerged as an interior force (16.9 ppg). The darkhorse to watch is Jack Murphy's NAU, which has been able to win on the road this season and can play a variety of different styles, but would prefer to run with a pair of former jucos, slashing wing Quinton Upshur (14.6 ppg) and go-go G Aaseem Dixon (12.6 ppg), while 6-4 soph G Kris Yanku has emerged as a difficult matchup and has been on a scoring tear (20.8 ppg last five) in recent weeks. Perennial contender Weber State still has to qualify for the event, and appears unlikely to make a late run with top scorer G Jeremy Senglin (15.4 ppg) currently out with a jaw injury.

Last year...NCAA - Weber State lost vs. Arizona, 68-59. CIT - North Dakota lost at UN-Omaha, 91-75; Northern Colorado lost vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 82-71; Portland State lost at San Diego, 87-65.

BIG SOUTH...Tourney March 4-8 at HTC Center, Conway, SC (home court of Coastal Carolina Chanticleers). The top five finishers receive byes into the quarterfinals; seeds 6 thru 11 compete in a play-in round.

Top contenders - High Point, Coastal Carolina, Charleston Southern, Radford, Winthrop, Gardner-Webb, UNC-Asheville.

Notes...Absolutely wide-open event with the top seven teams separated by just three games in the league standings, which is similar to the logjam a season ago when Cliff Ellis' Chants of Coastal Carolina took advantage of the Myrtle Beach locale to win this event before giving No. 1 regional seed Virginia a mighty scare in the Big Dance sub-regionals. Ellis is back with a similar-looking team with four starters from a year ago, featuring a well-balanced, guard-heavy offense with four DD scorers led by sr. G Josh Cameron (13.2 ppg). The "wow" factor in the loop belongs to Scott Cherry's High Point and its highlight-reel 6-8 F John Brown (18.6 ppg), an ACC-caliber recruit whose windmill dunks have been featured on ESPN Sports Center and who has NBA scouts flocking to the Point. Cherry is also on the coaching radar of several higher-profile suitors likely to come calling after the season (many believe he ends up at George Mason, where he once coached under Jim Larranaga). But the Panthers have lost twice to Coastal Carolina, blowing a big lead at this venue on Feb. 6.

Charleston Southern also just dumped the Point in 3 OTs last Saturday to tie for the reg.-season title, and is regarded as a co-favorite with electrifying league high scorer Saah Nimley (21.5 ppg), a 5'8 bundle of energy who has scored 30 ppg over his last four outings. Gardner-Webb, with high-scoring F Jerome Hill (19.1 ppg), and UNC-Asheville, with explosive G Andrew Rowsey (18.9 ppg; lit up High Point for 39 last week), cannot be dismissed, while Winthrop boasts of one of the nation's top three-point threats in G Keon Moore (3.24 triples pg ranks 6th nationally).

Last year...NCAA - Coastal Carolina lost vs. Virginia, 70-59. NIT-High Point lost at Minnesota, 88-81. CBI - Radford won at Oregon State, 96-92; lost at Old Dominion, 82-59. CIT - VMI won at Canisius, 111-100; won vs. IPFW, 106-95; won at Ohio, 92-90; lost vs. Yale, 92-75.

METRO ATLANTIC...Tourney March 5-9 at Trans Union Center, Albany, NY. The top five seeds get byes in the first round; games will pit 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, and 8 vs. 9, with winners advancing to quarterfinal round.

Top contenders - Iona, Rider, Manhattan, Monmouth.

Notes...Iona enters Albany as the top seed, but the Gaels have not been stretching many margins against MAAC foes, with most league wins by single-digit margins and with no spread covers in their last four. They're also off a loss at St. Peter's in Sunday's regular-season finale. But HC Tim Cluess has navigated through this event several times before, and Iona is once again among the nation's highest scoring teams (79.6 ppg ranks 7th). Four DD scorers include F David Laury (20.1 ppg), G A.J. English (19.5 ppg), and frosh firecracker G Schadrac Casimir (15.2 ppg and 43.8% beyond the arc), who pace the league's most-explosive outfit. Rider might be the hottest Metro-Atlantic entry, with wins in 7 of its last 8 games, and the Broncs have kept winning in recent weeks despite the absence of 6-11 C Matt Lopez, a Utah State transfer and leading scorer at 12.3 ppg...but apparently not yet missed.

Most regional observers believe the Manhattan Jaspers and entertaining HC Steve "Mini Vince Vaughn" Masiello have a shot at replicating last year's tourney upset if top scorer F Emmy Andujar (16.5 ppg) continues to get scoring help from G Ashton Pankey, hitting 56% from the floor over the past five games. King Rice's Monmouth played Iona very tough, winning once and losing by a point on the other occasion, and presents an interesting backcourt contrast with mini 5'8 G Justin Washington (13.4 ppg) and big 6-6 G Deon Jones (17.5 ppg last six). If a longshot is to emerge in Albany, most regional sources are warning about HC John Dunne's defense-tough St. Peter's, off of that Sunday upset over the Gaels.

Last year...NCAA - Manhattan lost vs. Louisville, 71-64. NIT - Iona lost at La Tech, 89-88. CIT - Canisius lost vs. VMI, 111-100; Quinnipiac lost at Yale, 69-68. CBI - Siena (champs) won vs. Stony Brook, 66-55; won vs. Penn State, 54-52; won vs. Illinois State, 61-49; won at Fresno State, 61-57; lost vs. Fresno State, 89-75; won vs. Fresno State, 81-68.

MEAC...Tourney March 9-14 at The Scope, Norfolk, VA (not the home court of Norfolk State, which plays its games at Echols Hall); First round pits seeds 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10, and 8 vs. 9; winners advance to quarterfinals, and so forth. Florida A&M is ineligible due to APR penalties.

Top contenders - NC Central*, Norfolk State, Maryland-Eastern Shore.

Notes... Like last year when winning this event and advancing to the Big Dance, Levelle Moton's NC Central is the clear favorite entering Norfolk next week, as the Eagles have lost just one league game over the past two seasons (and none yet in the 2014-15 campaign). Only two starters are back from last year's NCAA team, but NCC has been able to benefit from former reserve 6-7 F Jordan Parks, scoring 14.3 ppg and shooting 63.4% from the floor, plus transfer Gs Anthony McDonald (via Mississippi Valley State; 12.9 ppg) and well-traveled all-name Nimrod Hilliard (via South Dakota and Lamar; 11.0 ppg), plus Florida Gulf Coast transfer Dante Holmes (10.6 pgp). The Eagles shoot better than 49% from the floor and are clear favorites in Norfolk. If any team is to challenge, perhaps it will be hometown Norfolk State, with a potent scoring combo of 6-4 G Jeffrey Short (19.3 ppg) & rugged 6-9 PF RaShid Gaston (15.3 ppg & 9.65 rpg), and within four of NCC on Jan. 17. UMES also might be worth watching with its dynamic duo of 6-8 juco F Mike "SNL" Myers (16.2 ppg) and 6-4 combo G Devin Martin (14.2 ppg).

Last year...NCAA - North Carolina Central lost vs. Iowa State, 93-75. CBI - Hampton lost at Penn State, 69-65. CIT - Norfolk State lost at Eastern Michigan, 58-54.

NORTHEAST...Quarterfinals March 4, semis March 7, final March 10, all at home of highest seed.

Top contenders - St. Francis (NY), Robert Morris, Bryant, Mount Saint Mary's.

Notes...The Big Apple might have another NCAA Tourney entrant in Brooklyn-based St. Francis, which emerged as the team to beat in the NE Tourney when running away with the regular-season title. All after beginning the season with five straight losses. The Terriers start no one taller than 6'6 but get a lot of mileage from workhorse PF Jalen Cannon (16.5 ppg & 10.2 rpg), though Cannon played only ten minutes in the regular-season finale vs. Bryant, a game SFC lost by 10, ending its 9-game win streak. Barring Cannon's absence, the Terriers still rate as the favorite in this event. But that result gives Bryant and explosive sr. G Dyami Starks (18.5 ppg) some confidence heading into the conference tourney. Of course, we never want to dismiss the home team of the Pittsburgh Airport, Robert Morris, which has been to the postseason numerous times under HC Andy Toole and won at SFC on Jan. 24. The recent return to active duty of all-name sr. F Lucky Jones (14 ppg) is a boost for the Colonials.

Last year...NCAA - Mount Saint Mary's lost play-in game vs. Albany, 71-64. NIT - Robert Morris won at St. John's, 89-78; lost at Belmont, 82-71.

OHIO VALLEY...Tourney March 4-7 at Municipal Auditorium, Nashville, TN (not the home court of Nashville-based Tennessee State, which plays its games at the Gentry Complex, or Nashville-based Belmont, which plays its games at the Mike Curb Events Center).

Top contenders - Murray State*, UT-Martin, Eastern Kentucky, Belmont, Morehead State.

Notes...Steve Prohm's Murray State enters this week's tourney with the longest non-Kentucky win streak in the country (24 games), the last 16 of those vs. OVC foes. Postseason-savvy after last year's run to the CIT title, and with four starters back from that team, the Racers have the most efficient and effective attack in the Valley, led by soph G Cameron Payne (20.2 ppg) and an offense that scores 78.8 ppg (ranks 13th), hits 48.3% from the floor (ranks 16th), and 39% beyond the arc. But keep in mind that the Racers enter the postseason having covered just 3 of their last 10 vs. the line. On their best night, the UT-Martin Skyhawks, coached by former Wyoming HC Heath Schroyer, have proven they can be a handful. (Note the UNLV connection at Martin, where Skyhawk AD Julio Friere was asst. AD, and from where he brought Schroyer from the Dave Rice staff, and from where Schroyer brought transfer G "Coupe" Deville Smith. scoring a UTM-best 14 ppg).

EKU was an upset winner in this event last season and recently got top scorer G Corey Walden (18.6 ppg; scored 35 last Saturday vs. Tennessee Tech) back from injury, while hometown Belmont and HC Rick Byrd, with several previous Big Dance visits, cannot be dismissed, especially with jr. G Craig Bradshaw (17.8 ppg) still in the fold. If looking for a longshot, perhaps take a peek at SE Missouri State, close in most of its losses and with one of the OVC's most-dangerous threats in versatile 6-5 swingman Jarekious Bradley (15.9 ppg; scored 28 in last Saturday's romp past Austin Peay).

Last Year...NCAA - Eastern Kentucky lost vs. Kansas, 80-69. NIT - Belmont won at Green Bay, 80-65; won vs. Robert Morris, 82-71; lost at Clemson, 73-68. CBI - Morehead State lost at Illinois State, 77-67. CIT - Murray State (champs) won at Missouri State, 66-63; won vs. UN-Omaha, 86-62; won vs. Towson, 85-73; won vs. Pacific, 98-75; won vs. Yale, 65-57.

PATRIOT...Tourney March 3, 5, 8, 11 all at home of higher seeds. Top four seeds receive byes in first round.

Top contenders - Bucknell, Colgate, Lehigh.

Notes...Most in the region figured Lafayette or Holy Cross would be the teams to beat in the Patriot this season, but instead it was the alma mater of CBS head honcho Les Moonves, Bucknell, emerging from nowhere to steal the regular-season crown and earn top seed in the conference tourney. Though, upon inspection, competitive losses to Villanova, Penn State, and Wake Forest in pre-league play hinted that the Bison were better than their 5-8 SU non-Patriot record. Bucknell (38.9% triples) can shoot it from deep, though top scorer G Chris Hass (15.4 ppg) has gone stone cold in a handful of recent games. The Bison are not untouchable. Colgate also took its lumps in a bumpy 3-10 non-conference SU ride, but its collection of sharpshooters hits 48.4% from the floor (15th nationally) and almost 40% beyond the arc. Looming ominously is preseason favorite Lafayette, sitting at mid-table at the conclusion of the season but with the most-explosive offense in the league (73.8 ppg and 40.2% beyond the arc), though it's 6-9 Aussie Dan Trist (17.7 ppg and 58% from floor while working solely near the bucket) that differentiates the Leopards from other contenders.

Last Year...NCAA - American lost vs. Wisconsin, 75-35. NIT - Boston U lost vs. Illinois, 66-62. CIT - Holy Cross won at Brown, 68-65; lost vs. Yale, 71-66.

SOUTHERN...Tourney March 6-9 at U.S. Cellular Center, Asheville, NC.

Top contenders - Wofford, Chattanooga, Mercer, ETSU.

Notes...Defending conference tourney champ Wofford no longer had Davidson (off to the A-10) to worry about this season and quickly took charge of the league race. Vet HC Mike Young has taken several Terrier teams to the Dance, and the current version once again spins around savvy sr. G Karl Cochran (15 ppg), with jr. backcourt mate Spencer Collins often providing needed relief (such as Collins' 26-point effort in last week's crucial win at Mercer). Wofford, however, needs to be wary of stretch-running Chattanooga, coached by former Shaka Smart VCU aide Will Wade, who is going to be on many short lists of higher-profile schools looking for a coach in the offseason. The well-balanced Mighty Mocs won at Wofford on Feb. 12 and enter Greenville on a 6-game SU win streak. At 6'5, jr. G Casey Jones is a matchup headache and leads UTC at 14.2 ppg, with three others also averaging double-digit scoring. Mercer is over this season from the A-Sun, from where it qualified for the Dance and beat Duke a year ago, and vet HC Bob Hoffman also took the Bears to the CIT title a few years ago. All new starters this season, but Mercer remains a tough out with its deliberate style and solid defense.

Last year...NCAA - Wofford lost vs. Michigan, 57-40. NIT - Davidson lost at Missouri, 85-77. CIT - Chattanooga lost at East Tennessee (then a member of the Atlantic Sun), 79-66.

SOUTHLAND...Tourney March 11-14 at Merrell Center, Katy, TX. Central Arkansas, Houston Baptist, and Lamar are all ineligible for the postseason due to APR penalties.

Top contenders - Stephen F. Austin*, Sam Houston State, Northwestern State, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.

Notes...SFA and Sam Houston are once again the top seeds in this event, and the Lumberjacks need no introduction after making some noise in the Big Dance last March when upsetting VCU in the sub-regionals at San Diego. Coach Brad Underwood, a onetime Frank Martin aide, has a deadly-shooting team that hits 49.1% from the floor (7th best nationally) and three starters, including LY's Southland MVP Jacob Parker, still in the fold from the noisemakers of last March. Note that SFA took highly-ranked Northern Iowa into OT at Cedar Falls in November. Sam Houston gets another crack at the Lumberjacks in the regular-season finale on Saturday, and the Bearkats like to do it with defense, allowing only 58.4 ppg (ranks 16th). The team Southland onlookers are keeping an eye on is dangerous Corpus Christi, the only league rep to beat SFA over the past two seasons (the Islanders turned the trick on Feb. 14) and for good measure having dumped Sam Houston last week. AMCC, coached by former Rice HC Willis Wilson, is led by do-everything sr. G John Jordan (15.2 ppg & 5.2 apg).

Last Year...NCAA - Stephen F. Austin won vs. VCU in OT, 77-75; lost vs. UCLA, 77-60. CIT - Sam Houston State won vs. Alabama State, 71-49; lost vs. San Diego. 77-72; Texas A&M-Corpus Christi won at Northern Colorado, 82-71; lost at Pacific, 89-60.

SWAC...Tourney March 10-14 at Toyota Center, Houston, TX. Alabama State is ineligible for the postseason due to APR penalties; Southern U is ineligible for the NCAA Tournament due to failure to supply usable academic data to the NCAA, but will participate in the SWAC Tournament.

Top contenders - Texas Southern, Southern Prairie View, Jackson State.

Notes...The ineligibility of Alabama State has taken a top contender out of the league tourney. Thus, the path is paved for Texas Southern, which will have a hometown edge in the conference tourney that is being played a few miles from campus at the Houston Rockets' fancy Toyota Center. The Tigers opened some eyes in December with upset wins on the road at Michigan State and Kansas State, although this is one team that does not rely on the 3-ball, converting only 29.8% beyond the arc. The recent return of Nebraska transfer G Deverell Biggs (10.1 ppg) has given familiar HC Mike Davis his full complement of players, however, and the deepest roster in the SWAC deserves to be favored in Houston. With a 16-12 overall SU record, and with Alabama State ineligible, the Tigers are going to be the only team with a winning SU record next week at the Toyota Center.

Last year...NCAA - Texas Southern lost play-in game vs. Cal Poly, 81-69. CIT - Alabama State lost at Sam Houston State, 71-49.

SUMMIT...Tourney March 7-10 at the brand new Denny Sanford PREMIER Center, Sioux Falls, SD (not the home court of nearby, Brookings-based South Dakota State, which plays its home games at Frost Arena, or nearby, Vermillion-based South Dakota, which plays its home games at the Dakota Dome). Nebraska-Omaha remains in its transition period from Division II and is ineligible for the conference tourney, but can participate in the NIT, CBI, or CIT. The Summit League was formerly known as Mid-Continent Conference.

Top contenders - North Dakota State, South Dakota State, Oral Roberts, IPFW.

Notes...This wildly-supported event in Sioux Falls moves into the new 13,000-seat Denny Sanford PREMIER Center and promises one of the most crackling atmospheres of all postseason events. Regional observers believe there is no clear-cut favorite, though they expect the final might come down to a border war between the "States" of North Dakota and South Dakota. Both have recent NCAA Tourney pedigrees, with the Bison of NDSU having qualified a year ago (and upsetting Oklahoma in the sub-regionals), though HC Saul Phillips moved to Ohio after last season. Star Bison sr. G Lawrence Alexander (19.3 ppg) might be the top player in the loop. The teams split their regular-season meetings, though Scott Nagy's SDSU Jackrabbits enter Sioux Falls off a stunning 80-64 upset at the hands of state rival South Dakota. Oral Roberts, back in the Summit after a recent stint in the Southland, and stretch-running IPFW, which lost to NDSU in the Summit final a year ago and owns one of the most intriguing weapons in the league in 6'9, 295-lb., C Steve "Not That Steve Forbes" Forbes (13.9 ppg), should be watched closely.

Last year...NCAA - North Dakota State beat Oklahoma in OT, 80-75; lost to San Diego State, 63-44. CBI - South Dakota State lost at Old Dominion, 72-65. CIT - IPFW won vs. Akron, 97-91; lost at VMI, 106-95; UN-Omaha won vs. North Dakota, 91-75; lost at Murray State, 86-62.

WAC...Tourney March 12-14 at Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV. Grand Canyon remains in its transition period from Division II and will be ineligible for the conference tournament, but can participate in the NIT, CBI, or CIT.

Top contenders - New Mexico State*, UMKC, Seattle, CS Bakersfield.

Notes...The exception to the rule of conference tourneys, as no one shows up for this event at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas unless NMSU happens to be playing. And it should be an Aggie show once more, even with the Las Cruces bunch not as big or as formidable as recent seasons. But the rest of the league is suspect, and thus NMSU is an overwhelming favorite once more (and the WAC's only chance to have its champ avoid a 16 vs. 16 play-in game). The latest international discovery of HC Marvin Menzies, 6-9 Cameroonian frosh F Pascal Siakam (13.5 ppg; brother James plays at Vanderbilt), has emerged as a new Aggie star alongside 6-8 Parisian F Remi Barry (13.4 ppg) and 6-4 Canadian skywalker Daniel Mullings (13.2 ppg), back after missing more than a month due to injury. Cameron Dollar's Seattle U is the only WAC team to beat NMSU this season, and it would be a shocker if Menzies and the Aggies don't qualify for their fourth straight Big Dance.

Last year...NCAA - New Mexico State lost in OT vs. San Diego State, 73-69. NIT - Utah Valley lost at Cal, 77-64. CIT - Grand Canyon lost vs. Pacific, 69-67.
 
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WCC Betting Notebook
By Marc Lawrence

WEST COAST CONFERENCE

Date: March 6-10
Venue: Orleans Arena
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada

SCHEDULE

Friday, March 6
Game 1 - San Francisco vs. Pacific
Game 2 - Santa Clara vs. Loyola Marymount

Saturday, March 7
Game 3 - Saint Mary's vs. Portland
Game 4 - Pepperdine vs. San Diego
Game 5 - Gonzaga vs. Game 1 Winner
Game 6 - BYU vs. Game 2 Winner

Monday, March 9
Game 7 - Game 4 Winner vs. Game 5 Winner
Game 8 - Game 3 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner

Tuesday, March 10
Championship - Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8

TECH NOTES:

-- Favs 7-1 w/revenge… dogs > 8 pts off DD ATS win are 7-2 ATS…
-- Favs 9-3 off BB SU losses…
-- DD favorites 0-7 ATS off BB SUATS wins…
-- DD favs 0-6 off ATS loss… dogs < 4 pts are 1-6 ATS vs opp w/revenge…
-- #3 seeds are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS as favorites 5 > points…
-- #4 seed dogs are 2-10 ATS…
-- #5 seeds are 11-3 ATS as favorites < 14 pts… #7 seeds are 0-6 ATS off a SU win…
-- #8 seed dogs are 4-12 ATS.

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, BYU, Pepperdine

THE WAY WE SEE IT: Mighty GONZAGA has cut down the nets 11 of the last 14 years in this tourney while arriving to the title game all fourteen times in the process. The Zags’ 30-4 SU record all-time in this tourney speaks volumes and they are once again the team to beat as they continue their surge to earn a top seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Aside from being the most accurate shooting team in the nation, the Zags also rank in the Top 20 in 3-point shooting, defensive field percentage and rebounding. One note of caution, though: the Bulldogs are just 4-8 ATS as favorites of 12 or more points in this tourney, including 0-3 the last three...

Like Gonzaga, SAINT MARY’S has become a fixture in the finals of the WCC tournament, playing for the title five of the last six years while winning two championships in the process. And like the Zags, Mary is a glass cleaner with a +6.9 rebound margin. Good news for the Gaels: they are 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS versus No. 3 or lower seeds in this tourney. The bad news: 1-8 SUATS versus No. 1 seeds...

BYU is playing its best ball of the season while dominating weaker opponents away from Provo this year, going 7-1 SU/ATS. The larger task at hand, though, will be overcoming a 1-12 ATS run of late in this tourney, including a 0-8 ATS record in games when not favored...

PEPPERDINE was the biggest spread-winner in the loop this season (17-8-1 ATS at press time, including 6-0 ATS as puppies of more than 5 points). The Wave is also riding a 22-9 ATS skein away from Malibu the past two seasons, including 14-3 ATS when playing off a win. We’ll continue to ride them here.

THE SLEEPER: SAN FRANCISCO
The Dons move back into their annual ‘sleeper’ slot thanks in large part to head coach Rex Walters and his dominating 92-62 ATS career mark in conference games, including 7-3 ATS in this tourney with Frisco. The Dons are also 12-6 ATS away from the city of Rice-a-Roni versus .666 or greater foes the last five seasons, including 3-0 ATS in this tourney. Now that’s a San Francisco treat.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET: PLAY ON LOYOLA MARYMOUNT, PACIFIC, SAN FRANCISCO AND SANTA CLARA VERSUS BYU
The Lions, Tigers, Dons and Broncos each fell twice to the Cougars this season, setting up an inspired revenge scenario. That’s because BYU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven conference tourney contests against foes seeking same-season double revenge-exact (not to mention the Mormons’ overall struggles in this tourney). Once again, we’re betting the Tabernacle Choir is not capable of pulling the hat trick against any of these entries in this tournament.
 
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MVC Betting Notebook
By Marc Lawrence

MISSOURI VALLEY CONFERENCE

Date: March 5-8
Venue: Scottrade Cente
Location: St. Louis, Missouri

SCHEDULE

Friday, March 6
Game 3 - No. 1 Wichita State vs. Winner Game 1
Game 4 - No. 4 Illinois State vs.. No. 5 Evansville
Game 5 - No. 2 UNI vs. Winner Game 2
Game 6 - No. 3 Indiana State vs. No. 6 Loyola

Saturday, March 7
Game 7 - Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4
Game 8 - Winner Game 5 vs Winner Game 6

Sunday, March 8
Championship - Winner Game 7 vs. Winner Game 8

TECH NOTES:

-- Teams 3-0 SUATS last 3 games are 10-4 ATS off SU dog win…
-- Higher-seeded favorites are 81-10 SU & 57-32-2 ATS in first round games (no Donkey games)…
-- 11-3 off DD SU win vs opp off DD SU win w/revenge…
-- Teams off BB SU losses are 1-7 ATS w/revenge vs opp off BB SU wins…
-- 2-10 off DD SU win vs opp off DD SU loss…
-- DD dogs are 4-11 ATS off SU dog win…
-- #1 seeds are 18-5-1 ATS w/3+ days rest but only 1-6 ATS as dogs…
-- #2 seeds are 29-7 SU & 22-14 ATS since 2002 and 27-14 ATS as dogs or favorites of < 6 points since 1991…
-- #6 seeds are 4-24 SU…
-- #7 seeds are 3-11 off SU loss and 13-21-1 ATS L35 games overall (4-11 L15 ATS as favorites)…
-- #9 seeds are 1-6 ATS when 3-0 SUATS L3 games and 1-5-1 ATS as DD dogs.

PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Evansville, Illinois State

THE WAY WE SEE IT: WICHITA STATE is the reigning king of the Valley and Greg Marshall’s troops put on a crowning performance last season, taking a perfect 35-0 record into the Final Four before tasting defeat for the first time. And while there was a serious lack of competition in the MVC last season, the Shockers certainly earned their stripes. They will, however, carry a gigantic bulls-eye on their backs this go-round but you can’t dismiss a 35-1 SU mark in conference games at press time the past two seasons. Is a third straight 30-win season in the offing? Perhaps, but it should be noted that, until last season, the last time Wichie had won this tournament was back in 1987...

NORTHERN IOWA more than lived up to its billing when the 5-returning starter Panthers battled Wichita State down to the final game for conference honors this campaign. An offensive powerhouse, UNI ranked No. 13 in offensive field goal percentage and No. 16 in 3-point accuracy in the nation this season. And they also lost only one game against the spread away from home this season at press time. Color them super-dangerous...

EVANSVILLE lived up to its preseason expectations (picked to finish 4th in the loop this year) and will be looking to earn its 20th win of the campaign in this tourney. The Aces will need to be all-in if they wish to reverse past failures (10-20-1 ATS, including 2-13-1 ATS versus No. 4 or higher seeds) in this tournament...

ILLINOIS STATE dominated .750 or weaker opposition this season, winning 17 of 22 games, but faltered against better foes, going just 1-6. The Redbirds have rewarded backers in this tourney the past three seasons with a 4-2 ATS wining effort.

THE SLEEPER: INDIANA STATE
The Sycamores more than held their own against sub .700 opposition this season, sporting a 12-6 SU and 10-7 ATS mark, including 4-1 ATS as a dog. They’ve also been a highly credible 8-5 SUATS in this tourney dating back to 2009. Watch and see whether head coach Greg Lansing’s 7-2 SUATS mark in games when seeking revenge from a same-season loss of more than 10 points comes into play should they hook Wichita State.

KEY TOURNEY BEST BET: PLAY ON THE NO. 1 SEED IN GAME ONE
The simple fact of the matter is numbers don’t lie. Not when the top seed in this tourney is a staggering 24-0 SU and 18-5-1 ATS in its opening game. Enough said.
 
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'ACC Showdown'

Blue Devils (27-3, 16-13-1 ATS) routing Wake Forest 94-51 on Wednesday look to extend a ten game win streak (6-4 ATS) when they close the regular season campaign in Chapel Hill taking on rival Tar Heels (21-9, 16-13-1 ATS). Blue Devils lead by Okafor dropping 17.8 per contest with Cook, Jones, Winslow all chipping in double digits net a robust 80.6 points/game while shooting 50.4% from the field. Tar Heels able to keep up with the best of them drop 78.2 points/game on 47.2% shooting with Paige (13.2) leading three players in double digits. Taking a look through recent history of this rivalry the Blue Devils have had the upper hand of late winning 9-of-12 meetings including a 92-90 OT victory earlier this season in Durham. However, add the great equalizer (point spread) its a flip of a coin when the Tobacco Road rivals get together (6-6 ATS). In season finales over the past sixteen years, its dead even with Duke posting a 5-3 SU record in Durham, Tar Heels going 5-3 SU in Chapel Hill. The interesting betting nugget though. In these finales the road team has a tendency towards cashing tickets as Blue Devils are 5-3 ATS in Chapel Hill, Tar Heels 5-3 ATS in Durham.
 
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College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes -

Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats March 7, 02:00 EST

Cali's top-ranked Cats continue to roll along defeating Georgia Bulldogs this past week upping the mark to a school-record 30-0 (15-14-1 ATS) and 17-0 (7-9-1 ATS) in the SEC play. Not difficult to make a case for Kentucky to remain undefeated when they host Florida Gators (15-15, 10-18-1 ATS) on Saturday. Kentucky with it's second-ranked scoring defense (53.5 PPG) and top ranked field-goal defense (34.9%) have won 18 straight at Rupp Arena (9-9 ATS) including 8-0 vs the conference (4-4 ATS). Gators on the other hand have just two victories in SEC road games this campaign (2-5-1 ATS). A few betting nuggets to consider when handicapping this contest. Wildcats have not live up to betting expectations within the conference posting a cash burning 7-14-1 ATS mark last twenty-two vs the SEC. Wildcats are also 2-5 ATS last seven vs Gators including a non-cover when the two met earlier this season.
 
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NCAAB

Harvard/Yale are tied for first in Ivy League; Crimson won first meeting 52-50 (+1.5) in New Haven Feb 7-- Yale shot 28.1% inside arc in ugly game that was 16-11 Harvard at halftime. Bulldogs won five of last six games, are 5-0 on Ivy road- both their Ivy losses are at home. Harvard won nine of last ten games since losing at home to Dartmouth- they're 2-3 as home favorites. Ivy League home favorites of 6 or less points are 3-6-1 vs spread. Both teams play Saturday; there is no conference tourney in Ivy League, so this is pretty much the conference championship game.

MVC tournament, St Louis
Wichita State won this tourney LY after being 11-11 in this event the 11 years before that; Shockers swept Southern Illinois this year, winning at home 67-55 (-18) Jan 14, then 84-62 (-11) in Carbondale Feb 17- they shot 60%+ inside arc in both games. Salukis played three guys 35:00+ in last night's win, their second win in row after a 1-9 skid- they covered in two of last seven games as an underdog. Wichita covered seven of its last eight games. Keep in mind winner has to play Saturday/Sunday too.

Evansville got swept by Illinois State this year, 77-51 in Normal Feb 3 (Aces were 0-10 on arc), then 69-67 in OT at home six days ago, a game Redbirds tied in last 0:13, after blowing 8-point lead. ISU won last four games, is 3-2 in last five games as a favorite. Aces lost last four games, wound up disappointing 9-9 in Valley after upsettig Northern Iowa in MVC opener. Illinois State won first game in this event five of last seven years, Aces only two of last eight years.

Loyola won a game LY in its first MVC tourney, ending 5-year winless skid in conference tourneys; Ramblers lost twice to Indiana State, 72-61 in Terre Haute (+2.5) Jan 24, then 79-65 (-2.5) two weeks later. Loyola won its last three games, covered six of last seven; they're 5-1-1 in last seven games as an underdog. Sycamores went 6-7 in their last 13 games; they've won at least one game in Arch Madness nine of last ten years. Doyle played 9 minutes for Loyola last game, after missing 11 games.

Bradley snapped 7-game skid last night, beating Drake in OT after they lost twice to Bulldogs during season; Braves played three guys 38:00+ in last night's win- they were down 3 with 1:40 left. Northern Iowa lost its first and last Valley game, went 16-0 in between; they won 63-52 (-8.5) at Bradley Jan 13, then beat Braves 56-39 (-17) at home Feb 21- they led by 20+ in both games. Bradley is 2-4-2 vs spread in last eight games.

CAA tournament, Baltimore
Elon won its last three games after starting 3-12 in its first CAA season; Phoenix lost 57-53 (+3) at Towson Jan 5, then lost 53-51 (-5) to Tigers in rematch Jan 22. Towson lost four in row, seven of last eight games after being 26-8 in CAA last two years. Elon won its first game in nine of last 11 SoCon tournaments, but this is step up from there. Tigers are 5-2 in last seven first round games. Towson State is basically home team as this event moves to Baltimore from Richmond.

Charleston changed coaches just before practice started and had terrible season, going 3-15 in CAA; Cougars lost 53-51 (-1) at Drexel Jan 24, as Dragons scored last six points of game and 59-45 (-4) at home two weeks later (Charleston was 0-11 on arc, Drexel 9-15). Dragons started out 4-14 this season, then won next six games, then lost four of last five- they are 3-8 in first CAA tourney game last 11 years. Cougars lost by 11 last year to Wm&Mary in their first CAA tourney game.

Horizon tournament, Valparaiso IN
Oakland played #13 non-conference schedule to get ready for this- they are 11-3 in last 14 games, after starting season 5-12. Oakland is 12-6 in conference tournaments last eight years, winning two Summit titles; they beat Ill-Chicago twice this year, 91-77 (-4.5) in Chicago Feb 4, then 81-56 (-10.5) at home 18 days later. Flames are 1-5 in this tournament last five years, with three of last four losses by 10+ points. UIC beat Wright St. in first round game after trailing by 19 at the half.

Cleveland State lost last two games to finish 11-5 in Horizon; their last five games were all decided by 8 or less points. Home side won both its games with Detroit this year. State (-7.5) won 70-66 at home Jan 23, but lost 66-65 (-2.5) in Motor City Feb 13 (led by 3 with 0:22 left). Vikings are 0-3 in this tourney last three years; Detroit is 0-2 last two years after winning it in '12 with coach McCallum's son (now in NBA) leading way. These two games are at neutral Valpo site, with semifinals Saturday.

WCC tournament, Las Vegas
Pacific won Big West tourney in '06/'13 but is otherwise is 1-7 in league tourney games, losing by 17 LY in first WCC tourney game. Tigers lost twice to San Francisco this year, losing 77-71 (+4) at home to Dons Dec 27, then 65-55 at USF six days ago. Pacific lost nine of its last 11 games overall, covering three of last four as a dog. USF won its first tourney tilt three of last four years; they've won four of last five games overall, with only loss by 31 to St Mary's.

Santa Clara beat LMU twice this season, 65-62 (-5) at home Jan 22, and 70-63 (-3.5) in LA Feb 21, making 20-46 from arc in two games; Broncos lost seven of last nine games, but upset St Mary's 71-70 on Senior Night six days ago- they're 1-2 as WCC favorites. LMU has former NBA coach who doesn't have enough of his players yet. Lions lost last six games, all but one by 7+ points- they've won first tourney game five of the last six years. Santa Clara is 2-3 in first tourney game last five years.

Ohio Valley tournament, Nashville
Over last nine years, Murray State is 112-37 in OVC but won conference tourney only three times; Racers are 16-0 in OVC this year- they won at Morehead State 66-57 (-3) Jan 3 in only series meeting-- game was just 31-26 at half. Morehead won games last two nights, while Murray State hasn't played since Saturday. Eagles played three guys 30+ minutes but did use three subs 17+ minutes. Immense pressure on Murray- they are not getting into NCAAs unless they win their next two games.

Over last nine years, Belmont is 20-3 in conference tourney games, with most of that damage done in Atlantic Sun; Bruins pounded on Eastern Illinois last night by 33, only one guy played 30+ minutes. Home side won both series games this year; EKU (-3.5) won 81-69 at home Feb 5, then lost 66-61 (+2) here in Nashville two weeks later. Eastern Kentucky won eight of last nine games; they won this event LY as basically #3 seed in OVC. Belmont won its last five games, covered last four.
 
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Friday's six-pack

-- Arizona State 67, Stanford 62-- Referee David Hall worked his 90th game in 112 nights this college basketball season.

-- St Peter's 63, Fairfield 33-- Peacocks led 22-7 at halftime. 22-7.

-- Arkansas 78, South Carolina 74-- Razorbacks were up 20, then down 11, then best ballhandler on Carolina got hurt and Gamecocks fell apart down stretch.

-- Davidson 82, VCU 55-- Rams look totally lost without Briante Weber, could be headed to third meeting with Richmond in A-14 tourney. .

-- Final in Atlantic Sun Sunday afternoon: North Florida- SC Upstate. North Florida beat Purdue. This is the league that produced Mercer and Florida Gulf Coast.

-- Trailblazers lost Wesley Matthews for season with a ruptured achilles tendon.
 
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MLB American League East preview: Plenty of value in competitive division
By SEAN MURPHY

The American League East is projected to feature one of the tightest division races in baseball in 2015. No fewer than four teams have a legitimate shot at finishing on top with the Red Sox an improbable favorite coming off a disastrous 71-win campaign.

Baltimore Orioles (2014: 96-66, +34.77 units, 69-89-4)

Division odds: +350
Season win total: 82.5

Why bet the Orioles: Make it three straight winning seasons for the Orioles. There’s no question they’ve turned the corner from being a doormat to a contender in the A.L. East. Despite a few key personnel losses, their roster remains intact for the most part. Baltimore’s starting rotation is good enough to keep it in contention all season long.

Why not bet the Orioles: They might be one bat short after losing Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis. Those aren’t easy voids to fill. The O’s bullpen takes a hit as well, with Andrew Miller lost to free agency. There are going to be a lot of moving parts in the early going and in a crowded A.L. East race, that could ultimately spell trouble.

Season win total pick: Under 82.5


Boston Red Sox (2014: 71-91, -26.47 units, 71-86-5 O/U)

Division odds: +200
Season win total: 86.5

Why bet the Red Sox: There will be no shortage of star power in Beantown this season, with Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval among those joining the fold. The Red Sox young prospects got thrown into the fire during a disastrous 2014 campaign and should be farther along in their progression because of it. Like the Orioles, the Red Sox boast a starting rotation capable of keeping them in contention at the very least.

Why not bet the Red Sox: What happens if the injury bug bites again? Dustin Pedroia seems to have a new ailment each season and Hanley Ramirez wasn’t exactly a rock in Los Angeles. The Red Sox are counting on a lot of production from a select few and that leaves them exposed to failure once again if a couple of key injuries pop up.

Season win total pick: Under 86.5


New York Yankees (2014: 84-78, -2.4 units, 68-90-4 O/U)

Division odds: +400
Season win total: 81.5

Why bet the Yankees: The bullpen has the potential to dominate with Andrew Miller, David Carpenter and Justin Wilson joining an already promising group led by last year’s rookie standout Dellin Betances. Who knows what A-Rod can contribute but I do anticipate some improvement from the Yankees offensively, and even a small boost in that department could catapult them to the top of the A.L. East with a strong starting pitching staff.

Why not bet the Yankees: We’ve seen this story before. In recent years, every time the Yankees seem to show potential, it is quickly dashed. Expectations are high as usual in the Bronx but it will be tough to improve on last year’s 84-win campaign. Rarely do we see the Bronx Bombers as an undervalued commodity. The betting public always seems to keep the price high with this club.

Season win total pick: Over 81.5


Tampa Bay Rays (2014: 77-85, -26.54 units, 74-79-9 O/U)

Division odds: +700
Season win total: 78.5

Why bet the Rays: As evidenced by their division odds, few are giving the Rays a chance this year. A lot of the key pieces to the Rays success over the years have jumped ship but Evan Longoria remains and will continue to lead the offensive charge moving forward. The bottom of the order is ugly to be sure, but if Asdrubal Cabrera can over-achieve and one other hole can be filled, the Rays could show some life.

Why not bet the Rays: Gone are the days of a dominant starting rotation in St. Petersburg. Alex Cobb now finds himself at the top of the rotation and it will probably take career years from Drew Smyly and Chris Archer to keep this group afloat. The bullpen has similar question marks. Grant Balfour has a ton of miles on his arm and can’t be relied upon as an anchor.

Season win total pick: Under 78.5


Toronto Blue Jays (2014: 83-79, +1.19 units, 78-79-5 O/U)

Division odds: +250
Season win total: 83.5

Why bet the Blue Jays: No American League team made a bigger splash in the offseason than the Jays, as they brought in catcher Russell Martin and third baseman Josh Donaldson to add to an already potent lineup. Toronto’s youthful starting rotation shows a lot of promise and boasts just enough of a veteran presence (R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle remain on board) to qualify it as one of the best in baseball.

Why not bet the Blue Jays: The bullpen needs to bounce back after finishing as one of the worst relief corps’ in all of baseball last year. It’s not clear whether the Jays have done enough to improve substantially in that department and that could lead to their downfall. There’s also the concern that Josh Donaldson could regress after a stunning breakout with the A’s, although that’s a risk Toronto was willing to take.

Season win total pick: Over 83.5
 
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National League East preview: Nationals' division to lose
By STEVE MERRIL

The Nationals won the NL East by a whopping 17 games last season and are the favorites to win the division, NL pennant and the World Series in 2015. Covers Expert Steve Merril breaks down the National League East as we begin our preview of each division in the bigs.

Atlanta Braves (2014: 79-83, -1803 units, 63-86-13 O/U)

Division odds: 35/1
Season win total: 73.5

Why bet the Braves: Atlanta has one of the best closers in baseball in Craig Kimbrel. He blew just four saves all year long so if the Braves get a lead late, he should be able to hold it. They've got some nice pieces at the top of their rotation in Julio Teheran and Alex Wood, plus Nick Markakis is a solid addition to the lineup.

Why not bet the Braves: Shelby Miller is the team's number three pitcher and he's been hard to figure out after up and down years the last two seasons. Getting to Kimbrel could be an issue with the retooled bullpen featuring Jim Johnson, Shae Simmons and Jason Grilli. The offensive bench is extremely young and may not be able to get the job done at the plate.

Season win total pick: Over 73.5 wins


Miami Marlins (2014: 77-85, -2 units, 83-68-11 O/U)

Division odds: 5/1
Season win total: 81.5

Why bet the Marlins: Miami opened up the check book and acquired several new additions, along with giving slugger Giancarlo Stanton a huge contract. Mat Latos solidifies the top of the rotation to go along with Jose Fernandez when he is ready to return. Mike Morse, Dee Gordon and Martin Prado provide depth to a lineup that needed some additions.

Why not bet the Marlins: Latos only made 16 starts last year due to injury. The back end of the rotation features Dan Haren who doesn't really want to be there and Tom Koehler. A thin bench won't provide much offensive help, plus Stanton needs a solid lineup around him to ensure he sees good pitches and isn't just walked all the time.

Season win total pick: Over 81.5 wins


New York Mets (2014: 79-83, +311 units, 72-72-18 O/U)

Division odds: 6/1
Season win total: 82

Why bet the Mets: Second best pitching rotation in the division with Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese and Jacob DeGrom. David Wright should be able to bounce back after he struggled last season. Curtis Granderson will be happy with the fences moving closer and Michael Cuddyer is now in the lineup as well.

Why not bet the Mets: Who will be the closer for the team and who is going to provide middle relief? This bullpen has some live arms in Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia, but they are young and inconsistent. Will Matt Harvey stay healthy all year and can DeGrom stave off the sophomore year jinx?

Season win total pick: Under 82 wins


Philadelphia Phillies (2014: 73-89, -462 units, 83-69-10 O/U)

Division odds: 100/1
Season win total: 68.5

Why bet the Phillies: Ryan Howard and Chase Utley still have talent and they are both too good to struggle again this season. Dom Brown and Grady Sizemore combine well with Ben Revere in the outfield. Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee are still solid veterans in the rotation. Jonathan Papelbon is a strong closer and the team has several live arms in middle relief.

Why not bet the Phillies: Who is behind Lee and Hamels in the starting rotation? Right now it looks like Jerome Williams, Chad Billingsley and Aaron Harang are fighting it out with David Buchanan and none of those options inspire confidence. Will Howard and Utley be able to make it through the entire season without injuries? This team might also start trading away veteran talent as the season progresses.

Season Win Total Pick: Over 68.5 wins


Washington Nationals (2014: 96-66, +1062 units, 77-72-13 O/U)

Division odds:1/4
Season win total: 93.5

Why bet the Nationals: This team has the best pitching rotation in baseball with Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gonzalez, Fister and Scherzer. Opponents will struggle to score against Washington all season long. The offensive lineup will benefit with a full season of Ryan Zimmerman. The bench is also talented and deep.

Why not bet the Nationals: The bullpen is weaker without Tyler Clippard. Matt Thornton and Craig Stammen will have to step up their game. Jayson Werth is already banged up and Zimmerman is injury prone. Can the team handle the expectations that come with being the preseason World Series favorites?

Season Win Total Pick: Under 93.5 wins
 
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Five steps to safely bet MLB Spring Training action
By JASON LOGAN

Betting MLB Spring Training is right up there with eating that week-old slice of pizza at the back of your fridge and lending your car to that sweet girl with the tramp stamp you met at the bar last night (she said she had to pick up her aunt from the hospital) – not the best idea.

But for those of you dealing with massive intestinal discomfort or the ones describing your 1997 Isuzu Trooper to the local police, you know that sometimes you just can’t help yourself.

If you are going to bet on Cactus and Grapefruit League action this spring, at least follow these guidelines.

Do your homework

Like betting any preseason sport, you have to know what the gameplan is before even thinking of putting your hard-earned coin on the line. Read, read and read some more.

“One advantage that bettors have in these exhibition games is information,” Covers Expert Matt Fargo says. “Similar to NFL preseason games where coaches give out their player rotations and game plans, managers in baseball are very up front on how long starters will be pitching for and what sort of lineups they are going with.”

Listen to what the manager is hoping to accomplish this spring: Is he working in prospects or trying to sure up the rotation? And study up on key players and how they approach spring ball: Do they pace themselves in March or come out swinging? We hate to sound like a public service announcement, but “The more you know…”

Start cautiously

The first few games of spring training might as well be a high school science fair. Managers are experimenting with lineups and rotations, mixing this guy with that guy and swapping bodies like he’s rolling out hockey lines. A new managers, like Chicago Cubs skip Joe Maddon, are working with players for the first time, still getting an idea of how to best use their talents.

Players are also a tough read in the opening slate of exhibition games. Some guys are easing into the action, others are battling for positions, and others are just trying to stay healthy. Keep an ear to the base paths or sit back and watch how a manager is treating the first weeks of spring ball.

Find the right pitching matchups

As Spring Training marches on, starting pitchers take on more and more work. Guys will go at least five innings, giving you a pretty good idea of what to expect from the staff. The best situation is when you have an ace matched up against a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, or a young prospect trying to break into the bigs. Managers aren’t quick to change up pitchers in the spring, even if a guy is getting hammered.

Betting the “better” team

Roster depth and a surplus of talent can go a long way in Spring Training. Since veterans tend to limit themselves in the exhibition slate, knowing who’s behind them is imperative to betting spring baseball.

A talent-loaded lineup can make up for the absence of one or two big bats, while a shallow roster struggles without those elite hitters at the plate. It’s the reason a club like Detroit always seems to excel in spring ball, posting a collective 76-45 record the past five spring sessions.

Ride hot teams, fade cold ones

There is almost zero consistency in Spring Training, so when you start to see a pattern – winning or losing – jump on it. Managers couldn’t care less about the results, so don’t expect them to rush to right the ship if their club struggles in the spring. And if a team is winning, the skip must be doing something right and will only tweak minor details.
 
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NEWSLETTER NHL Hockey Prediction From Doc’s Sports

Take ‘Over’ 5.5 – Winnipeg at Nashville (7 p.m., Friday, March 6)
Since coming back from a knee injury a few weeks ago, goaltender Pekka Rinne hasn’t been the same for Nashville. Rinne was dominating in the net for the first three months of the season and looked to be on his way to winning the Vezina Trophy with less than two goals allowed per contest. But since coming back he’s allowing 2.83 goals per game, including four goals in each of his last three starts. He’ll eventually get it turned around, but now’s the time to take advantage of his struggles. On Saturday he’ll face a Winnipeg Jets team that has really gotten aggressive offensively over the last couple of months. Part of it was due to a bevy of injuries to its defensemen, which led to a different style of play. It worked for the Jets, and the Over has went 21-7-3 in their last 31 games as a result. We should see more of the same on Saturday as the Predators don’t mind getting up and down the ice, either.
 

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