StatSystems Sports NBA Report, Friday 3/4/11
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••• LONDON CALLING! •••
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If you didn’t exercise due diligence in handicapping this weekend’s slate of NBA games, you might not realize two teams will be eating fish and chips for their pregame meals. The Nets and Raptors have hopped across the pond for a back-to-back set of games Friday and Saturday at The O2 Arena in London. With professional sports always making a push for global expansion, these will be the first NBA regular-season games in Europe. Early reports indicated Deron Williams might not be available for one or both of the contests. But he confirmed that he would play after going through a limited practice Thursday. Williams has been playing with a strained tendon in his right wrist and then suffered a bone bruise on his left hand Monday.
Head coach Avery Johnson said that Williams’ injuries have not improved but that he will start the game. In three games since joining the Nets, Williams is averaging 14.0 points and 15.7 assists. So now that you have the basics and injury report, how do you go about handicapping this ugly-duckling game? Stat/Systems Sports NBA Expert Sal Pierro said he had minimal interest in betting on it. “You’re taking all of the situations you can normally account for, and you’re just kind of scrambling them up and placing the game in London,” he said. “These are two bad teams you can’t trust anyway.”
Pete Korner of the Sports Club in Las Vegas said his oddsmaking group sent out a spread of 1.5 in favor of the Nets with a total of 205. When the game surfaced on the offshore market, the numbers were 2.5 and 200.5. The disparity in the total is interesting. Generally speaking, public bettors tend to think a foreign environment—new gym, new fans and new time zone—hinders the propensity to score points. For most of the NFL games played in London totals have been low, but that has had more to do with the weather than the venue. “The pros can adjust; they’ve played on a million different courts in their lifetime,” said Korner, who pointed out an over/under at a neutral site in the NCAA might be adjusted more than the NBA.
“New Jersey looks like it may be a little more up-tempo now and that will have more bearing on the final score than just the change of scenery.” There have been four NBA exhibitions played at The O2 over the last few years. The Celtics and Timberwolves played a 92-81 game in 2007 and then the Heat and Nets had a 94-92 outcome the following preseason. The last two exhibitions played there would have gone “over” in theory, with the Bulls and Jazz totaling 203 points and the Lakers and T-Wolves combining for the same amount. Korner said that his group approached the creation of this game’s spread just as it would with two teams on a neutral court.
He said the major factors to consider when handicapping this contest are the recent personnel changes and the severity of Williams’ injuries. New Jersey and Toronto both play in the Eastern time zone so internal clocks will be equally out of whack. The Nets did arrive one day before the Raptors, however, because Toronto played on Tuesday. These clubs met in mid-December this season and the Raptors earned a 98-92 victory as 5.5-point home chalk. The game went under the posted total of 202.5. Korner said the Sports Club will make a line adjustment for Saturday’s game depending on how the first one goes. Friday’s matchup has a 3:05 ET tipoff.
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***** FRIDAY, MARCH 4TH NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• HOT TEAMS
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-- Bulls won/covered seven of their last nine games. Magic won six of last seven games (5-2 vs spread).
-- Minnesota covered four of its last five road games. 76ers won four of their last five games.
-- Celtics won six of their last seven games.
-- Cavaliers covered five of their last six road games. Knicks won five of last seven games (6-1 vs spread).
-- Hawks won three of their last four games.
-- Memphis won five of its last seven games (6-1 vs spread).
-- Mavericks won their last seven games (6-1 vs spread).
-- Suns won four of their last five games.
-- Spurs won four of their last five games, but Parker is hurt.
-- Lakers won/covered their last five games.
• COLD TEAMS
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-- Toronto lost its last 11 road games (0-7 vs spread in last seven). Nets lost their last six games (2-4 vs spread).
-- Warriors lost four of their last five games.
-- Thunder is 0-3 vs spread in its last three road games.
-- Hornets lost 12 of their last 16 games.
-- Pacers lost three of their last four games.
-- Bucks lost 10 of last 14 games, covered one of last five.
-- Miami lost three of its last four games.
-- Bobcats lost last three road games, by 12-14-40 points.
• BACK-TO-BACK
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-- Orlando is 5-8 if it played night before, but 5-4 if it won.
-- Miami is 4-1 SU if it lost the night before.
• TOTALS
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-- Last three New Jersey games went over the total.
-- Last four Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-2 in Minnesota's last nine games.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in last 14 Golden State games. Four of last five Boston games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-3 in Cleveland's last dozen games.
-- Eight of last nine Atlanta games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-2 in last seven Memphis games. Four of Hornets' last five games stayed under.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Dallas games.
-- Under is 10-3 in Milwaukee's last thirteen games.
-- Five of Spurs' last six games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2 in Charlotte's last eight road games.
• KEY TRENDS
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-- The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall.
-- The under is 4-0 in the Nets’ last four overall and 10-1 in the Spurs’ last 11 home games.
-- The under is 4-0 in the Bulls’ last four overall and 9-2 in the Magic’s last 11 overall.
-- The Hornets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• QUICK HITS
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--TORONTO VS. NEW JERSEY, 3:00 PM ET NBA TORONTO: 1-9 ATS in road games after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog. NEW JERSEY: 1-8 ATS vs. division opponents.
--CHICAGO @ ORLANDO, 7:00 PM ET ESPN CHICAGO: 16-6 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. ORLANDO: 9-18 ATS after playing a road game.
--MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA, 7:00 PM ET MINNESOTA: 14-3 ATS in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games. PHILADELPHIA: 7-17 ATS in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread.
--GOLDEN STATE @ BOSTON, 7:30 PM ET GOLDEN STATE: 20-6 ATS against Atlantic division opponents. BOSTON: 9-23 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.
--CLEVELAND @ NEW YORK, 7:30 PM ET CLEVELAND: 6-16 ATS after a non-conference game. NEW YORK: 21-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins.
--OKLAHOMA CITY @ ATLANTA, 7:30 PM ET OKLAHOMA CITY: 7-3 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more. ATLANTA: 11-1 UNDER as a home underdog.
--NEW ORLEANS @ MEMPHIS, 8:00 PM ET NEW ORLEANS: 1-5 ATS after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games. MEMPHIS: 17-5 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent.
--INDIANA @ DALLAS, 8:30 PM ET INDIANA: 6-19 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. DALLAS: 14-6 ATS off a road win.
--PHOENIX @ MILWAUKEE, 8:30 PM ET PHOENIX: 14-6 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games. MILWAUKEE: 9-18 ATS in non-conference games.
--MIAMI @ SAN ANTONIO, 9:30 PM ET ESPN MIAMI: 0-7 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games. SAN ANTONIO: 8-0 ATS in home games against Southeast division opponents.
--CHARLOTTE @ LA LAKERS, 10:30 PM ET CHARLOTTE: 10-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. LA LAKERS: 1-8 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins.
• NOTES & TIPS
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-- 20, 10, 2 – Averages that Orlando Magic big man Dwight Howard is eclipsing in points, rebounds, and blocks, respectively; the only NBA player to do so. Howard is going for 23.3 points, 13.9 points, and 2.2 blocks per game as of Thursday afternoon. Orlando is following up Thursday night’s showdown at Miami with another huge one on Friday at home against the Bulls. It also could be a crucial stretch in the MVP race for Howard (whose team just launched a website to campaign for him), LeBron James, and Derrick Rose.
-- Atlanta’s Josh Smith has a strained right MCL and he missed Wednesday night’s home win over Chicago, in which the Hawks stormed back from a 17-point deficit to prevail 83-80. Smith is listed as questionable for Friday’s home date against Oklahoma City. However, the news is even worse for the guy Smith likely would have guarded. Kevin Durant suffered a sprained ankle late in Wednesday’s 113-89 blowout of Indiana and he is listed as doubtful after missing practice on Thursday. James Harden will get the start if Durant cannot go against Atlanta.
-- Just when you thought it could not get any worse for the Miami Heat against good teams, Thursday happened. Playing at home against the Magic, Miami built a 24-point lead in the third quarter. Instead of putting the hammer down, the Heat let Orlando go on a shocking 40-9 run and eventually pull out a hard-to-believe 99-96 win. "We need to keep on pushing through," head coach Erik Spoelstra told the Miami Herald afterward. "There's no other way to say it. I think our guys are very anxious right now and they want it so bad. This will eventually help us. None of us want to talk about it right now, but we will eventually get over this hump." Both Miami and Orlando are back in action on Friday, and it does not get any easier for the Heat. They have to travel to San Antonio, which is 50-11 overall and 28-2 at home.
-- The Utah Jazz signed head coach Ty Corbin to a multiyear contract on Wednesday, less than a month after he succeeded Jerry Sloan. Terms of the deal were not announced. Jazz officials made it clear upon Sloan's Feb. 10 resignation that Corbin would be their coach of the future. "We actually not only talked the talk, we walked the walk and we put our money where our mouth is," Jazz CEO Randy Rigby said Wednesday. Rigby said it would have been easy to tell Corbin to wait, and see how the team finished and if it made the playoffs. "We don't believe in putting a coach in that position," Rigby said. "This is how we've always said we would treat (such situations)."
Corbin, who had served as an assistant under Sloan since the 2004-05 season, is the seventh head coach in Jazz history. Sloan abruptly resigned a day after clashing with All-Star point guard Deron Williams at halftime of a Feb. 9 loss to the Chicago Bulls, saying he simply was out of energy. Rigby said team owners literally had 30 minutes after Sloan slept on his decision to offer Corbin the job, and they chose to make him head coach rather than interim coach. "When we had (Karl) Malone, (John) Stockton and Sloan in place, it was easy (to talk about) stability," Rigby said.
In a span of 13 days, the franchise had its Hall of Fame coach retire then traded away Williams in a blockbuster deal that brought Devin Harris and rookie Derrick Favors plus two draft picks and cash to Utah. "We want the marketplace to realize this team is here in Utah to stay," Rigby said. "We're committed to this community and committed to its coaching staff and to winning and staying in control and protecting this great and valuable asset. It was demonstrated again today with this new contract."
Rigby said ownership was impressed with the energy displayed by the players during the turbulent month. Though they lost to Boston on Monday, the Jazz nearly pulled off the upset, and management was impressed with Corbin's leadership. "He really is the right man," Rigby said. Corbin and the Jazz face their next test Wednesday night against Denver, another team that made a blockbuster trade. The Jazz have dropped six straight at home - the team's worst home skid since 1982 - and 16 of the past 21.
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*** #801 TORONTO VS. #802 NEW JERSEY (-2.5, O/U 201.5) ***
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After spending just one day in his new apartment, New Jersey Nets point guard Deron Williams embarked on a trans-Atlantic trip to play a couple of home games in Britain. And he's feeling the effects. "I haven't had any time to just sit down somewhere and relax," Williams said Wednesday, a week after being traded from the Utah Jazz and two days before the first regular-season NBA games to be played in Europe. "I haven't had much time, been in my place for one day," Williams said. "I've done a lot of traveling over the last six days." On Friday, Williams will take the court with his new teammates from the Nets (17-43), this time against the Toronto Raptors (17-44) at London's O2 Arena. The teams will play again Saturday night.
"There's a lot of young talent on this team. It is a young team," Williams said. "The last 20 games will help us get used to each other and I think things will turn around for next year." Williams' impact has already been felt by his new teammates, and his home debut on Monday in Newark looked to be a big step in the right direction. Williams had 13 points and a season-high 18 assists, including five in rallying New Jersey from a seven-point deficit late in the fourth quarter of New Jersey's 104-103 overtime loss to the Phoenix Suns. "He's great," shooting guard Sasha Vujacic said of his new teammate.
"Obviously we'll need some time to get used to each other -- it's not going to happen overnight -- but just to have him, to have someone who knows how to play point guard ... it's just great addition to us and we are building a team for the future." The Nets arrived in London on Tuesday morning, taking an overnight flight after the loss to the Suns. For Vujacic, a Slovene drafted by Los Angeles Lakers in 2004, the trip may not be all that exotic, but it still takes some getting over. "Honestly, travel is terrible. It takes a lot out of you," Vujacic said. "It takes your legs away, especially for the shooters. Sometimes it's very tricky, but we have to learn how to live with it."
The Raptors landed Wednesday morning, but already had their first practice at the O2 in the afternoon. "The idea for the first day is just to go up and down a little bit, get the blood flowing a little bit and try to get them on the correct sleep pattern," Raptors coach Jay Triano said. "We'll try to get as much rest as we can today." Raptors guard Jose Calderon of Spain also is used to the overseas flights, but that doesn't make it any easier for him to prepare for big games. "Always the first day, it's kind of tough when you arrive in Europe after the flight," said Calderon, who scored a season-high 22 points in Toronto's 96-90 win over the New Orleans Hornets on Tuesday.
"But we'll be OK... We just got to practice a little bit, sweat, and be ready for tomorrow. Get a good night's sleep, and from there we'll be ready for Friday." Despite the travel and fatigue issues, Vujacic still believes it is possible that an NBA franchise could be based in Europe one day. "I think it's about time," said Vujacic, who is expecting friends and family from all over the Europe to be at the games. "It's just a matter of time when it's going to happen. The game is so interesting. It's so easy to fall in love with it." Raptors center Andrea Bargnani, who is from Italy, is less convinced.
"I don't think it's going to happen. The flight today was long, the jet lag is tough," Bargnani said. "I hope it's not going to happen. It's more fun to come over here once a year like this, but to come here often with our schedule is pretty tough." The NBA has not set a timeline of putting a permanent team in Europe, but Commissioner David Stern did come through after saying for years that he wanted regular-season games in London before the 2012 Olympics in the city. For Williams, that likely means another trip to London next July as a member of the U.S. national team. "I plan to be back over here for the Olympics," Williams said. "Hopefully get my second gold medal."
--NEW JERSEY is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW JERSEY 88.1, OPPONENT 99.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW JERSEY is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games this season.
The average score was NEW JERSEY 44.2, OPPONENT 45.6 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New Jersey by 1; O/U 198
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New Jersey -3
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Toronto -0.56
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs the money line (TORONTO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a win by 6 points or less.
(39-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.7%, +30.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -148.3
The average score in these games was: Team 105.8, Opponent 96.4 (Average point differential = +9.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-5, +14.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (60-19, +27.9 units).
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the money line (NEW JERSEY) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games.
(117-26 since 1996.) (81.8%, +59.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -221.7
The average score in these games was: Team 105.7, Opponent 97.4 (Average point differential = +8.2)
The situation's record this season is: (13-5, +2.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (60-12, +33 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (84-20, +39.2 units).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (NEW JERSEY) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog.
(41-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.7%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 199.3
The average score in these games was: Team 96.6, Opponent 97.6 (Total points scored = 194.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 35 (59.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (7-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-10).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (91-55).
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*** #803 CHICAGO @ #804 ORLANDO (-2, O/U 187.5) ***
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Jason Richardson said earlier this week if the Orlando Magic want to be considered contenders, they had to impress during a three-game stretch against other strong teams from the Eastern Conference. Through two of those games, they've managed to do just that despite only playing 48 good minutes. A pair of furious second-half rallies have the Magic's winning streak at four heading into Friday night's visit from the Central Division-leading Chicago Bulls, who hope to put a second-half collapse behind them and avoid their sixth straight loss in Orlando. The Magic (40-22) cruised past Oklahoma City and Charlotte after dropping their first game following the All-Star break, a loss to Sacramento that caused Dwight Howard to question his team's effort.
That led into a stretch of three games in four nights against New York, Miami and Chicago (41-18) that Orlando knew would be a serious measuring stick. Richardson said Monday he saw the week as a chance for the Magic to "redeem themselves." That seems fitting given how the first two games have unfolded. Down 11 at halftime to the Knicks on Tuesday, Orlando scored 69 second-half points en route to a 116-110 win, though that comeback paled in comparison to what happened Thursday. The Heat led 73-49 with nine minutes left in the third, but the Magic didn't pack it in. They ended the game on a 50-23 run, sparked by 17 of Richardson's team-high 24 points to pull off a 99-96 shocker.
The comeback was the second-largest in franchise history and matched the NBA's second-biggest turnaround of the season. "To tell you the truth, I didn't even know we were down that much," Orlando guard Jameer Nelson said. "I was just playing. I just think that's what you have to do when you know you can play better and you're not playing up to your potential. Just get it going somehow, not worry about the score." Meanwhile, The Bulls can certainly relate to what the Knicks and Heat went through against Orlando. Chicago led Atlanta 50-33 at halftime Wednesday before falling apart in the final 24 minutes, scoring just 30 points after the break and losing 83-80.
Derrick Rose, who missed 16 of his 21 shots and had six turnovers, accepted the blame. "I made some careless passes," Rose said. "The game was definitely on me. ... But I guarantee it won't happen again." Rose hasn't had much shooting success in a pair of home games against the Magic this season. He shot 5 of 13 as Orlando throttled the Bulls 107-78 on Dec. 1, then shot 6 of 21 in the rematch Jan. 28. He finished with 22 points and 12 assists in that one, though, and Luol Deng scored a team-high 26 to lift Chicago to a 99-90 victory. Howard had 40 points and 15 rebounds in the loss for the Magic.
The Bulls haven't visited Orlando since March 11, when they were without Deng and Joakim Noah in a 111-82 loss, their fifth straight in central Florida. While Rose and Howard are clearly two of the league's top players, much of the success for the Bulls and Magic hinges on how Deng and Richardson, respectively, perform. Chicago is 23-5 when Deng scores 19 points or more, while Orlando is 18-5 when Richardson contributes at least 11 points. Carlos Boozer's 24.6 points per game at Orlando since 2005-06 are his most in any visiting venue, though this is his first trip since joining the Bulls.
--CHICAGO is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 97.5, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) after allowing 85 points or less this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 92.7, OPPONENT 86.4 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Orlando by 3.5; O/U 190
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Orlando -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Orlando -2.98
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less.
(96-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +48.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -197.7
The average score in these games was: Team 101.6, Opponent 95.7 (Average point differential = +5.9)
The situation's record this season is: (14-3, +7.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (61-13, +36.5 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (256-95, +50.6 units).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (ORLANDO) - after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less.
(35-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (31-15 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2
The average score in these games was: Team 99, Opponent 94.7 (Average point differential = +4.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (39.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (91-74).
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*** #805 MINNESOTA @ #806 PHILADELPHIA (-9.5, O/U 206) ***
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The Philadelphia 76ers have played well at home against some of the Western Conference's top teams. A visit from the conference's worst club would seem like a break, but the Minnesota Timberwolves have been playing better on the road lately. Philadelphia looks for its fourth straight home win over the Timberwolves on Friday night and first sweep of this season series in five years. Already with seven more home victories this season (19) than in 2009-10, Philadelphia is 18-6 at the Wells Fargo Center since Nov. 17 with a 7-3 mark against the West, including wins over San Antonio, Denver, New Orleans and Portland.
Coach Doug Collins' team had a chance to knock off visiting Dallas on Tuesday, trailing by three with less than a minute to go, but lost 101-93 as its season-high four-game winning streak was snapped. Philadelphia (30-30), though, remains in seventh place in the East, 1 1/2 games back of sixth-place New York. "We played toe-to-toe with one of the best, one of the hottest teams in the league," Collins said of the Mavericks, who have won 17 of 18 and are second in the West. "I'm proud of them for that. Our guys are doing this for the first time. They've been at it for a while, they've been here a lot of times. That showed tonight."
The 76ers have won three in a row at home versus Minnesota since Dec. 3, 2006, and posted a 119-97 victory in the Timberwolves' last visit Feb. 9, 2010. Coach Kurt Rambis' team, however, has won three of five on the road after opening 2-23 on opponents' home courts. Led by 20 points and 20 rebounds from Kevin Love, Minnesota (15-47) opened its three-game trip Wednesday with a 116-105 victory over Detroit. Anthony Randolph had 19 points and 10 boards, Lazar Hayward scored 16 and Anthony Tolliver added 13 for a Timberwolves bench which had a season-high 61 points. "I was really happy with our effort and energy tonight," Rambis said. "I thought our second unit played very well together, which helped us a lot."
Philadelphia's reserves are scoring a league-best 39.9 points per game despite being held to 29 on Tuesday. While Minnesota's play has been inconsistent this season, Rambis can count on Love for a double-double every night. The All-Star forward, averaging a team-high 20.9 points and a league-leading 15.5 rebounds, tops the NBA with 57 double-doubles and has recorded 48 straight, the longest such streak since Moses Malone's 51-game run in 1978-79.
Love had 16 points and 13 rebounds in a 107-87 home loss to Philadelphia on Feb. 12. Minnesota second-leading scorer Michael Beasley missed that matchup with a sprained ankle and has been inconsistent since returning, scoring more than 20 points in two games but averaging 10.8 on 30.0 percent shooting in the other four. Thaddeus Young had 18 points off the bench in the last meeting to lead seven players in double figures for Philadelphia, which shot 51.3 percent. The 76ers last swept Minnesota in 2005-06 when they won both games by a total of three points.
--PHILADELPHIA is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 101.7, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 98.0, OPPONENT 109.5 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Philadelphia by 11; O/U 204
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Philadelphia -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Philadelphia -9.88
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs the money line (MINNESOTA) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 Reb/G) vs. an average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) after 42+ games.
(39-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.6%, +31.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -159
The average score in these games was: Team 100.4, Opponent 92 (Average point differential = +8.4)
The situation's record this season is: (7-0, +7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-4, +15.3 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (53-13, +27.2 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog.
(56-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (87.5%, +40.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -189.4
The average score in these games was: Team 104.6, Opponent 95.2 (Average point differential = +9.4)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1, -2.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-5, +21 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (89-31, +25.8 units).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games, after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 57.5, Opponent 54.8 (Total first half points scored = 112.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (35-13).
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*** #807 GOLDEN STATE @ #808 BOSTON (-9.5, O/U 201.5) ***
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Kevin Garnett's 24-point performance against the Golden State Warriors last week marked his best offensive game in almost three months. He didn't wait nearly that long to top it. Coming off his highest-scoring effort in nearly three years, Garnett looks to stay hot Friday night against the visiting Warriors as he tries to lead the Boston Celtics to a fourth straight win. Garnett has helped Boston (44-15) establish a reputation as the league's best defensive team since arriving in the summer of 2007, but his age, an excellent supporting cast and a few nagging injuries have kept him from being the consistent offensive force he was in Minnesota.
Since the All-Star break, he's done an awfully good impression of the player that averaged at least 21.2 points for eight straight seasons. Garnett had 24 points, 12 rebounds and six assists in a 115-93 rout of the Warriors (27-33) on Feb. 22, at the time the most points he'd put up since scoring 26 against Toronto on Nov. 26. After three more double-doubles that brought his streak to five, Garnett outdid himself Wednesday against Phoenix. He had 28 points and 11 rebounds in Boston's 115-103 victory. The most in a regular-season game for the 14-time All-Star since March 26, 2008, when he scored 30. "I walked into shootaround before the game and put 20 on the board and said 'that's how many attempts you should have,'" coach Doc Rivers explained. "You shouldn't go through a game where a smaller big is on you and not get 20 attempts."
All of Garnett's points came in the first 33 minutes as he helped put the Celtics up by as many as 29. Boston improved to 10-1 this season and 32-6 over the past three seasons when Garnett scores at least 19 points. Garnett might have to do a little bit more offensively with fellow low-post threat Glen Davis on the shelf for at least a week. Davis hurt his knee going up for a dunk late against the Suns, and was diagnosed Thursday with patellar tendinitis. That should mean more time for recent acquisitions Nenad Krstic and Troy Murphy, who played 14 minutes and scored one point in his Celtics debut Wednesday, two days after he was bought out by Golden State.
The loss to the Celtics began a four-game skid for the Warriors, but they put an end to it Wednesday in Washington barely. Golden State was up by 20 points late in the third before watching the lead shrink to one, but held on for a 106-102 victory behind 29 points from Stephen Curry. "When you've gone through a streak of losing, to get a win no matter how it ends up nobody will pay attention to how the fourth quarter went," coach Keith Smart said after the Warriors improved to 1-2 on their seven-game road trip.
If Golden State plans on winning in Boston for the first time since Garnett's arrival, it will likely need more from Monta Ellis than the 15 points he contributed while shooting 6 of 18 last week. Ellis has been held to 17.0 points per game -- 7.7 below his average -- and 36.2 percent shooting since the All-Star break. The Warriors also need to slow down Rajon Rondo, who's averaged 22.3 points and 14.0 assists in his last three games in this series. Al Thornton, released by Washington earlier this week, is expected to be in uniform for Golden State after signing with the Warriors on Thursday.
--GOLDEN STATE is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 98.7, OPPONENT 111.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 12-0 UNDER (+12.0 Units) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 97.7, OPPONENT 98.4 - (Rating = 5*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 12; O/U 196.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -13
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -12.04
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY UNDER - Any team (BOSTON) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.
(66-26 since 1996.) (71.7%, +37.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 200.2
The average score in these games was: Team 98.3, Opponent 97.6 (Total points scored = 195.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 52 (56.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-16).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (37-17).
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*** #809 CLEVELAND @ #810 NEW YORK (-12, O/U 217.5) ***
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The Cavaliers have shocked the New York Knicks twice this season in Cleveland, including an impressive win just a week ago in the road debut of new Knicks Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups. Both teams could look considerably different when they meet Friday at Madison Square Garden. Billups is doubtful and Cleveland's Antawn Jamison who helped spearhead last week's victory is out, but the Cavaliers will likely have Baron Davis on the floor for the first time as they look for an 11th consecutive win against the Knicks. Given the state of the two franchises over the past few seasons, it wasn't that surprising Cleveland came into 2010-11 with an eight-game winning streak versus New York (31-28).
What is surprising is that it's continued. The Cavaliers (11-49) picked up their lone victory in a 37-game stretch by beating the Knicks 109-102 in overtime Dec. 18, then stunned them again last Friday with a 115-109 win despite Amare Stoudemire, Anthony and Billups combining for 84 points. New York bounced back by winning twice in a stretch of three games in four days. After splitting games at Miami and Orlando, Billups bruised his quadriceps in a loss to the Magic, the Knicks played without their new point guard Wednesday against New Orleans, but shot 54.5 percent in a 107-88 victory.
Toney Douglas had 24 points in Billups' place. "When you have players like myself and Carmelo who demand so much attention, the game seems to open up for guys like (Douglas), so he took advantage of it," said Stoudemire, who also finished with 24. Douglas has averaged just 4.5 points and shot 21.1 percent in the two losses to Cleveland, but New York might need him to step up again Friday. Billups sat out Thursday's practice and is doubtful to face the Cavaliers. Two days after Jamison's 28 points and 13 rebounds sparked the victory over the Knicks, Cleveland's leading scorer broke his left pinky. He likely won't play again this season.
The Cavaliers had a particularly difficult task in their first game without Jamison. They shot 39.6 percent, their worst effort since late January in a 109-99 loss Wednesday to league-best San Antonio. One bright spot was Samardo Samuels, who replaced Jamison and made his first pro start. The undrafted rookie responded with season highs of 23 points and 10 rebounds. "I know every day that I come in, I'm going to work hard and I know my teammates are doing the same," Samuels said. "That's what I'm going to keep doing, nothing is going to change." The Cavs lost Luke Harangody to a hip pointer and were already without Daniel Gibson, who is all but certain to miss his second straight game with a quad injury.
They should get one reinforcement Friday with the debut of Davis, who was acquired from the Clippers along with an unprotected first-round pick last week for Mo Williams. Davis has missed the Cavaliers' three games since the trade because of a knee injury, but he's expected to make his Cleveland debut by backing up Ramon Sessions. "(I'm excited) to get out here and start working with these young guys, Davis said. "It'll be good to get out there in a game situation and just see what we can all do together." Davis had 16 points and a season-high 16 assists as the Clippers beat the Knicks 116-108 at MSG on Feb. 9.
--CLEVELAND is 8-24 against the 1rst half line (-18.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 49.5, OPPONENT 58.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 5-18 against the 1rst half line (-14.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 51.2, OPPONENT 58.6 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New York by 12; O/U 214
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New York -10.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New York -12.90
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home favorites vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more against opponent off a home loss.
(62-6 since 1996.) (91.2%, +45.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -275.8
The average score in these games was: Team 102.3, Opponent 89.8 (Average point differential = +12.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-1, +14.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-2, +19.4 units).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread.
(52-20 since 1996.) (72.2%, +30.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 216
The average score in these games was: Team 111.3, Opponent 112.5 (Total points scored = 223.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 38 (53.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-11).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (41-15).
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*** #811 OKLAHOMA CITY @ #812 ATLANTA (NL) ***
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Being without the NBA scoring leader would seem to significantly decrease the chances of the Oklahoma City Thunder pulling off a tough road win. Then again, they've done fine this season when Kevin Durant hasn't been available. The star forward is unlikely to play when the Thunder visit the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night. Oklahoma City (37-22) had no problem winning Wednesday after losing Durant, who scored 21 points before spraining his ankle in the third quarter of a 113-89 victory over Indiana. He said that it was just a tweak and hoped to play Friday, but the Thunder announced Thursday that he was doubtful after being held out of practice.
"With Kevin, he has the toughness, he loves to play, so when he's ready, he's going to step on the court and play at the level that we all are accustomed to seeing," coach Scott Brooks said. Durant, averaging a league-high 28.4 points and 7.1 rebounds, said he hasn't experienced the swelling he had when he sprained the same ankle and had to miss two games in November. Oklahoma City won both of those games, and it is 3-1 this season with Durant out of the lineup, all four contests coming on the road. Russell Westbrook has been the main reason the Thunder have been able to overcome Durant's absence in those games, as he recorded 34- and 31-point performances in two of the victories that Durant sat out. Westbrook scored 21 against the Pacers.
Brooks says guard James Harden, who had 20 points Wednesday, would likely start in Durant's place if he's unable to go. Center Nazr Mohammed and point guard Nate Robinson made their Thunder debuts against Indiana, with Mohammed finishing with eight points and seven rebounds and Robinson scoring six points in eight minutes. Atlanta (37-24) certainly won't miss facing Durant. He's averaged 30.8 points in his last four meetings with the Hawks, the last three of which were Thunder victories. He scored 33 in a 103-94 win over Atlanta on Dec. 31. Oklahoma City may not be the only team that's short-handed Friday. Atlanta forward Josh Smith is day-to-day with a sprained medial collateral ligament in his right knee, an injury that kept him out of an 83-80 win over Chicago on Wednesday.
Smith, averaging 16.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists, was replaced in the lineup by Jason Collins, who scored one point. Like the Thunder, the Hawks had someone step up in a top player's absence. Forward Al Horford scored a career high-tying 31 points to help rally Atlanta from a 19-point deficit against the Bulls, and his dunk with 29 seconds left gave the Hawks their first lead. Horford shot 9 of 12 in the second half after being held to nine points before the break. He scored 13 points in the third quarter and had 16 rebounds for the second straight game.
"He was a beast tonight," coach Larry Drew said. "He did it on both ends. "In the huddles he was cheering the guys and telling them to keep playing. He was phenomenal." Horford was also part of a defensive effort that allowed the Hawks to hold their third opponent in four games to fewer than 85 points. Atlanta plays nine of its next 10 at home, where it's won 15 of 19. The Hawks, however, have gone 1-6 in their last seven home games against Oklahoma City.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Atlanta by 1; O/U 200
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Oklahoma City -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Atlanta -0.40
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 85 points or less.
(61-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.7%, +41.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -174.5
The average score in these games was: Team 101.7, Opponent 91.8 (Average point differential = +9.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-6, +26.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (146-37, +58.6 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less.
(25-6 since 1996.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.5, Opponent 45.6 (Average first half point differential = +3.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
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*** #813 NEW ORLEANS @ #814 MEMPHIS (NL) ***
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The Memphis Grizzlies haven't reached the playoffs in five years, but they've been surging toward an end to that streak of late. The New Orleans Hornets have been in the postseason more recently, and they seem to be lacking that same intensity to return. The Grizzlies can move past the struggling Hornets for seventh place in the Western Conference if they can earn their season-high sixth straight home win Friday night. Memphis (34-28) defeated NBA-leading San Antonio 109-93 on Tuesday, giving it a split of the home-and-home series. The Grizzlies have won 15 of 20, moving them within a half-game of New Orleans (35-28).
Memphis, which improved to 21-8 at FedExForum, hasn't made the playoffs since 2005-06. "We don't want to get complacent or pat ourselves on the back yet," said guard Tony Allen, who scored 20 points and is averaging 15.6 in the last nine games, more than double his season average. "We're just trying to get better each and every day. "We look at the standings every day, and we definitely want to move up... We want to try and win every game. No matter how the standings fluctuate, we've still got to play hard." The Grizzlies forced the Spurs to commit 22 turnovers that led to 30 points. Memphis leads the league with 16.8 turnovers forced per game and has averaged 18.7 in the last three.
"That's what we do," coach Lionel Hollins said. "Sometimes we're all over the court and it looks like mayhem, but then we get a deflection and a steal. That's what good teams do. You just have to keep making second and third efforts." While the Grizzlies are red-hot, New Orleans has lost three straight and 12 of 16. The Hornets fell 107-88 at New York on Wednesday in the second game of a five-game road trip, looking lackadaisical and uninspired throughout the contest. "I just think we didn't have the fight that we've had this year. I had to address some things after the game personally with some guys," coach Monty Williams said. "I'm not going to get to the summer time and have stones that are unturned."
"I cannot stomach guys that go out there and don't play with passion and go out there and play afraid. That's what I saw tonight." He also saw All-Star point guard Chris Paul continue to struggle with his shooting. Paul scored a season-low four points and went 2 of 7 from the field against the Knicks, and he's totaled 17 points the last three games while making seven of 29 shots. Paul has shot poorly for nearly a month, making 34.7 percent from the floor and averaging 11.6 points in his last 11 games. He's shooting 46.6 percent this season and 47.2 percent in his career.
Center Emeka Okafor's numbers have also been down since he returned from an oblique strain that kept him out 10 games. He's totaled 15 points in his last three contests and was a combined 3 for 12 from the field in the last two. The Hornets defeated the Grizzlies 103-102 in overtime on the road Jan. 19, as Marcus Thornton helped break up an inbounds pass with 14 seconds left in the extra period and finished the ensuing fast break with a layup. Paul, who wound up with the ball after Thornton and Ariza tipped it on the decisive play, had 20 points and 12 assists. New Orleans has won 16 of the last 20 meetings but lost the most recent matchup in Memphis 107-96 on April 2.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Memphis by 4; O/U 189.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Memphis -8
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Memphis -3.36
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 90 points or less 3 straight games.
(28-3 since 1996.) (90.3%, +23.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -160
The average score in these games was: Team 101.8, Opponent 94.1 (Average point differential = +7.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0, +8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-0, +10 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after 4 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG).
(69-13 since 1996.) (84.1%, +44.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -185.8
The average score in these games was: Team 102.1, Opponent 93.6 (Average point differential = +8.5)
The situation's record this season is: (5-1, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (36-3, +29.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (44-7, +30.5 units).
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(26-5 since 1996.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (14-18)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.8
The average score in these games was: Team 94.7, Opponent 94.9 (Average point differential = -0.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (46.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ORLEANS) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(36-11 since 1996.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.4, Opponent 47.2 (Average first half point differential = +1.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
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*** #815 INDIANA @ #816 DALLAS (-8.5, O/U 208.5) ***
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The Dallas Mavericks are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. That depth is about to be tested with starting center Tyson Chandler sidelined. With Chandler expected to miss at least two games, Brendan Haywood will likely start as the Mavericks look to win their eighth straight overall and ninth in a row at home Friday night against the Indiana Pacers. The Mavericks (44-16) have already been playing without Caron Butler, who averages 15.0 points per game but has been out since suffering a right patella tendon injury Jan. 1. Even without him and Chandler, Dallas has six players scoring at least 8.4 points and grabbing 4.7 rebounds or more per game.
"We just keep coming, wave after wave," point guard Jason Kidd said after a 13-point, 13-assist, 10-rebound effort in a 101-93 victory at Philadelphia on Tuesday. Dallas, which last won nine straight at home from Feb. 18-March 25, 2009, will look to Haywood to help it overcome its latest significant injury. The 7-foot-1 Chandler has averaged 12.8 points and 10.0 rebounds in the last 18 games, helping the Mavs go 17-1 in that span to move into second place in the Western Conference. The 7-0 Haywood was expected to be the starting center after signing an extension in the offseason, but that changed when Chandler was acquired from Charlotte over the summer.
Haywood is averaging career lows of 4.3 points, 4.7 boards and 17.5 minutes, but with Chandler's status uncertain, the Mavericks hope he can have the same impact he did after being acquired from Washington last season. Haywood averaged 9.8 points, 9.1 rebounds and 2.3 blocks while starting the first 10 games of a 13-game winning streak Feb. 17-March 10. During that stretch, Haywood scored 13 points and grabbed a career high-tying 20 boards in a 91-82 home win over Indiana. He went 3 of 4 from the field and had seven points and four rebounds Tuesday.
The Mavericks have won six straight and 10 off 11 at home against the Pacers. Dallas, though, had its five-game winning streak in the series snapped with a 102-89 loss Jan. 12. With leading scorer Dirk Nowitzki sidelined for that game with a sprained right knee, Jason Terry had a team-high 18 points off the bench. Terry, the league's top-scoring reserve at 15.8 points per game, had a season-best 30 on Tuesday. He has hit 42.3 percent (30 of 71) from 3-point range during the 17-1 run.
The Pacers (27-33) have lost five of eight since opening 7-1 under interim coach Frank Vogel. Starting a stretch of six of seven on the road, Indiana fell 113-89 at Oklahoma City on Wednesday. Pacers starters scored a season-low 33 points and shot 9 of 38, with leading scorer Danny Granger going 3 of 11 and finishing with nine points. "We just have to understand that we're a better basketball team that we showed tonight and get ready for Dallas," Vogel said. Indiana has lost seven in a row on the road versus West opponents. The Pacers' last season sweep of Dallas was 2003-04.
--DALLAS is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season.
The average score was DALLAS 102.4, OPPONENT 95.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games this season.
The average score was DALLAS 103.1, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 8.5; O/U 199.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -7.77
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days.
(50-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.5%, +29.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.2, Opponent 48 (Average first half point differential = +5.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-13).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (116-79).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (DALLAS) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%).
(55-22 since 1996.) (71.4%, +30.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (71-9)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 9.6
The average score in these games was: Team 101.1, Opponent 88.6 (Average point differential = +12.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 25 (32.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-12).
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*** #817 PHOENIX (-2.5, O/U 194.5) @ #818 MILWAUKEE ***
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Known for their potent offense, the Phoenix Suns used a tremendous defensive effort to defeat the Milwaukee Bucks last month. The Suns look to continue their dominance of the Bucks and win for the fifth time in six games Friday night at the Bradley Center. Despite scoring 100-plus points for a season high-tying eighth consecutive game, Phoenix (31-28) saw its four-game winning streak come to an end with a 115-103 loss at Boston on Wednesday night. The Suns dropped 1 1/2 games back of Memphis for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. If history is any indication, though, they could get back on track against Milwaukee, as they've taken 34 of 39 in the series. Phoenix posted a 92-77 victory Feb. 2 as the Bucks struggled to get anything going offensively.
Playing without center Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee (23-36) was outrebounded 54-39 and shot 31.1 percent for its lowest mark since shooting 30.4 percent in an 87-76 loss to Detroit on Dec. 27, 2008. Milwaukee, which has scored 90.4 points per game over a 4-10 stretch, was again without Bogut and not much better against the Pistons on Tuesday night. The Bucks, though, managed to pull out a 92-90 victory thanks in part to Brandon Jennings' 21 points. Jennings had six points on 2-of-10 shooting against the Suns last month in his third game back after missing 19 because of a broken foot.
He was benched in the fourth quarter of Saturday night's 83-75 loss to Chicago but was glad to step up when his team needed it most Tuesday. "That's just making plays down the stretch in the fourth quarter," said Jennings, who scored 23 points to lead the Bucks to a 107-98 home victory over Phoenix on April 3. "That was something I asked for. I knew Coach (Scott Skiles) was going to challenge me. He kind of kept the ball in my hands in the fourth quarter, so I had to contribute for him." Jon Brockman recorded eight points and eight rebounds in his first start at forward for Milwaukee as Bogut, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Ersan Ilyasova and Drew Gooden were all out with injuries. Bogut, averaging 12.6 points and a team-best 11.5 rebounds, and Gooden won't be available Friday, and the statuses of Mbah a Moute and Ilyasova remain unknown.
The Suns could also be short-handed, as Vince Carter and Channing Frye banged heads in the third quarter against the Celtics and missed the rest of the game. Phoenix's bench outscored its starters 63-40 on Wednesday. "Don't get me wrong our bench can start, so we have a pretty good team," said reserve Mickael Pietrus, who has scored at least 10 points in six of seven games. "So hopefully we can make that last push with our second unit to make the playoffs. Just play to win." Steve Nash had registered double-digit assists in a season-best 10 straight games before finishing with seven against Boston. Nash is averaging 19.3 points against the Bucks over his career, his most against any opponent but he's totaled 19 in the last two meetings. The Suns have taken eight of 11 on the road and conclude their season-high six-game trip Sunday against Oklahoma City.
--MILWAUKEE is 21-5 UNDER (+15.5 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 44.2, OPPONENT 46.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--MILWAUKEE is 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) in non-conference games this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 89.1, OPPONENT 92.8 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Milwaukee by 1; O/U 195.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Phoenix -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Milwaukee -1.80
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home underdogs vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - in non-conference games, off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival.
(24-2 since 1996.) (92.3%, +20.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -167.5
The average score in these games was: Team 105.3, Opponent 96.6 (Average point differential = +8.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1, -2.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1, +2.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2, +3.7 units).
--PLAY ON - Road teams (PHOENIX) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half.
(29-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (22-13 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.2
The average score in these games was: Team 104.9, Opponent 103.1 (Average point differential = +1.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (47.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (30-11).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games.
(29-7 since 1996.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.5, Opponent 45.5 (Total first half points scored = 92.1)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.
(36-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +26.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.1, Opponent 45.9 (Average first half point differential = +2.2)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-9).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (69-50).
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*** #819 MIAMI @ #820 SAN ANTONIO (-2, O/U 195.5) ***
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The Miami Heat and their Big Three may be getting most of the NBA's hype this season, but it's the San Antonio Spurs who comfortably lead the league. Dominating play at home is one reason for that. After reaching 50 wins for the 12th consecutive season, the Spurs will again try to overcome the absence of the injured Tony Parker to push their record home winning streak to 22 against the Heat on Friday night. With LeBron James and Chris Bosh having joined Dwyane Wade, Miami (43-18) leads the Southeast Division and is second in the Eastern Conference behind Boston. However, the Spurs (50-11) own the best overall record and a 5 1/2-game cushion over Dallas in the West.
That success has been sparked by San Antonio's 28-2 record at the AT&T Center, where they have won a franchise-record 21 straight the longest such streak since James spurred Cleveland to a 23-0 home start in 2008-09. The Spurs have had little trouble prevailing when hosting the Heat, taking 21 of 23 all-time. They pounded Miami 108-78 in the most recent meeting in San Antonio on Dec. 31, 2009, before sweeping the season series with an 88-76 victory March 16 in Miami. To continue that success, San Antonio will need to overcome a third consecutive game without Parker, who could miss up to four weeks with a left calf injury.
The Spurs have split two games without him as George Hill has stepped in at point guard. Hill is averaging 11.3 points and 2.4 assists while starting three games in 2010-11, but he came up big Wednesday by scoring 22 points with five assists and five rebounds in a 109-99 road victory over the Cavaliers. He had just six points in Tuesday's 109-93 loss at Memphis. "As long as TP is out, that is what he is going to have to do," said forward Tim Duncan. "He will have to accept that role and give us some fire from that position." Hill has been impressive while helping the Spurs win three in a row versus the Heat, averaging 14.7 points on 60.9 percent shooting.
Despite its star-studded lineup, Miami is only 14-16 against teams at or above .500. The team is 0-2 to start a stretch of 11 consecutive games versus teams with winning records, including five against current division leaders and two against San Antonio. The Heat turned in perhaps their most disappointing performance of the season Thursday, falling 99-96 to Orlando after having a 24-point, third-quarter lead erased by the Magic's stunning 40-9 run. "The urgency is there," said Wade, who had 28 points.
"Just got to finish it. We enjoy these games. We play them hard. ... It's growing pains and it (stinks). You look for the light at the end of the tunnel." Wade was limited to 16 points and committed seven turnovers in the Heat's most recent visit to San Antonio. However, he'll have some assistance this time from James, who is averaging 32.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.3 assists over his last eight meetings with the Spurs, winning six while with Cleveland. Bosh continues to struggle from the field, making 31.7 percent of his shots and averaging 13.8 points with 8.5 rebounds over the last four games. He had 32 points and 10 boards in Toronto's 131-124 loss on Nov. 9, 2009 in San Antonio.
--SAN ANTONIO is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 103.4, OPPONENT 94.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 12-1 against the 1rst half line (+10.9 Units) in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 50.9, OPPONENT 47.2 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Antonio by 4.5; O/U 197.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Antonio -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Antonio -2.77
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Road teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (MIAMI) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite, playing on back-to-back days.
(31-6 since 1996.) (83.8%, +24.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.2, Opponent 44.6 (Average first half point differential = +6.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs (MIAMI) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(63-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.8%, +34.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (75-19 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5
The average score in these games was: Team 104.3, Opponent 96.6 (Average point differential = +7.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 32 (34.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (11-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (47-21).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (154-123).
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*** #821 CHARLOTTE @ #822 LA LAKERS (-12.5, O/U 191.5) ***
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An upcoming four-game road trip would certainly put the Los Angeles Lakers' undefeated record since the All-Star break at risk. However, they can't overlook a home game with a sub-.500 team which has given them fits. Seeking a sixth consecutive win overall, Los Angeles will look to avenge last month's embarrassing defeat to the Charlotte Bobcats and avoid a ninth loss in 11 games in the series Friday night. The Lakers (43-19) have won five in a row since All-Star weekend, Dallas is the only other unbeaten team since the break (4-0) after entering it having lost three straight. That skid included a 109-89 defeat at Charlotte on Feb. 14, their most lopsided loss of the season.
While Kobe Bryant is averaging 29.8 points against the Bobcats (26-34), his highest mark against any opponent his individual numbers haven't translated into much team success. "I don't know what it is about the Lakers, but the last eight out of 10 games our team has beaten the Lakers and that's pretty special," Charlotte coach Paul Silas said. The Bobcats, though, have undergone some major changes since that Feb. 14 win, most notably sending swingman Gerald Wallace to Portland for Joel Przybilla, Sean Marks, Dante Cunningham and two first-round picks before the trade deadline.
The Lakers' only two wins in the last 10 meetings both came with Wallace sidelined by injury. Charlotte was able to pull out a victory in its first contest without Wallace but has since suffered ugly back-to-back losses, including a 120-80 defeat at Denver on Wednesday night, the biggest loss in franchise history. "We just can't get on the same page and we are not trusting each other," forward Stephen Jackson told the Bobcats' official website. "We are still trying to put this new team together but rotation and being on the same page should be automatic. When we don't trust each other and are not on the same page then we get beat by 40."
Even if the Lakers avenge their ugly loss to Charlotte, they will have a tough time keeping their win streak going after that. They begin a four-game trek Sunday against league-best San Antonio before visiting Atlanta, Miami and Dallas. Los Angeles is a combined 1-4 against those teams. Los Angeles, though, has been playing excellent defense lately, holding opponents to 88.4 points per game during its win streak, 7.4 below its season average and 41.3 percent from the field. The Lakers rank in the top 10 in the league with 102.0 points per game but couldn't get much going offensively Tuesday night as defense keyed another win, 90-79 at Minnesota.
Coach Phil Jackson's team recorded its second-worst shooting percentage of the season (37.5) but allowed its second-lowest point total of 2010-11 and outrebounded the Timberwolves 53-39. Pau Gasol registered his sixth double-double in seven games with 12 points and 17 rebounds. "That's why we've been able to win back-to-back championships because we have a great team," said Bryant, who scored 24 points. "Pieces complement each other extremely well. That's the trick, that's the key. Management has done a great job."
The Bobcats haven't had the same kind of chemistry since Wallace's departure, averaging 83.0 points on 38.4 percent shooting in the last two games. They've lost three straight and six of eight on the road, though they're within one game of Indiana for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Jackson averaged 32.5 points in the first two games after Wallace was traded before being held to seven points on 3-for-10 shooting Wednesday. He also shot 3 of 10 for nine points last month against the Lakers, but his teammates hit a combined 54.2 percent.
--LA LAKERS are 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season.
The average score was LA LAKERS 48.2, OPPONENT 46.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHARLOTTE is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) off a road loss this season.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 88.5, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Lakers by 10; O/U 193
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -7
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Lakers -11.76
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 120 points or more.
(26-5 since 1996.) (83.9%, +21.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +102.3
The average score in these games was: Team 102.5, Opponent 92.9 (Average point differential = +9.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1, +3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1, +7 units).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites (LA LAKERS) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%).
(55-22 since 1996.) (71.4%, +30.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (71-9)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 9.6
The average score in these games was: Team 101.1, Opponent 88.6 (Average point differential = +12.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 25 (32.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-12).
<hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225); background-color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 3/4/11
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••• LONDON CALLING! •••
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If you didn’t exercise due diligence in handicapping this weekend’s slate of NBA games, you might not realize two teams will be eating fish and chips for their pregame meals. The Nets and Raptors have hopped across the pond for a back-to-back set of games Friday and Saturday at The O2 Arena in London. With professional sports always making a push for global expansion, these will be the first NBA regular-season games in Europe. Early reports indicated Deron Williams might not be available for one or both of the contests. But he confirmed that he would play after going through a limited practice Thursday. Williams has been playing with a strained tendon in his right wrist and then suffered a bone bruise on his left hand Monday.
Head coach Avery Johnson said that Williams’ injuries have not improved but that he will start the game. In three games since joining the Nets, Williams is averaging 14.0 points and 15.7 assists. So now that you have the basics and injury report, how do you go about handicapping this ugly-duckling game? Stat/Systems Sports NBA Expert Sal Pierro said he had minimal interest in betting on it. “You’re taking all of the situations you can normally account for, and you’re just kind of scrambling them up and placing the game in London,” he said. “These are two bad teams you can’t trust anyway.”
Pete Korner of the Sports Club in Las Vegas said his oddsmaking group sent out a spread of 1.5 in favor of the Nets with a total of 205. When the game surfaced on the offshore market, the numbers were 2.5 and 200.5. The disparity in the total is interesting. Generally speaking, public bettors tend to think a foreign environment—new gym, new fans and new time zone—hinders the propensity to score points. For most of the NFL games played in London totals have been low, but that has had more to do with the weather than the venue. “The pros can adjust; they’ve played on a million different courts in their lifetime,” said Korner, who pointed out an over/under at a neutral site in the NCAA might be adjusted more than the NBA.
“New Jersey looks like it may be a little more up-tempo now and that will have more bearing on the final score than just the change of scenery.” There have been four NBA exhibitions played at The O2 over the last few years. The Celtics and Timberwolves played a 92-81 game in 2007 and then the Heat and Nets had a 94-92 outcome the following preseason. The last two exhibitions played there would have gone “over” in theory, with the Bulls and Jazz totaling 203 points and the Lakers and T-Wolves combining for the same amount. Korner said that his group approached the creation of this game’s spread just as it would with two teams on a neutral court.
He said the major factors to consider when handicapping this contest are the recent personnel changes and the severity of Williams’ injuries. New Jersey and Toronto both play in the Eastern time zone so internal clocks will be equally out of whack. The Nets did arrive one day before the Raptors, however, because Toronto played on Tuesday. These clubs met in mid-December this season and the Raptors earned a 98-92 victory as 5.5-point home chalk. The game went under the posted total of 202.5. Korner said the Sports Club will make a line adjustment for Saturday’s game depending on how the first one goes. Friday’s matchup has a 3:05 ET tipoff.
Stat/Systems Sports is renowned for providing the most comprehensive game information on the Internet to date. Our popular Stat/Sheets, along with our daily Stat/Systems Reports are packed with proprietary handicapping tools that benefit everyone from the beginning bettor to the most advanced self-handicapper. “Providing Unprecedented Handicapping Content is what Stat/Systems Sports is all about. So make Sure you have the Advantage you need to win this Season!
Did you know that the Stat/Systems Report is the #1 rated sports betting publication in the country today. Offering complete analysis and predictions for every game on the board including game logs, betting trends, key injuries, vital statistics, lines and odds, and more the daily publication is everything that you need to win each and every day! “Who will cash at the betting window on Friday, be sure to get all your winners each day... "Where the Winning Never Stops right here @ Stat/Systems Sports!" Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 "You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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***** FRIDAY, MARCH 4TH NBA INFORMATION *****
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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• HOT TEAMS
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-- Bulls won/covered seven of their last nine games. Magic won six of last seven games (5-2 vs spread).
-- Minnesota covered four of its last five road games. 76ers won four of their last five games.
-- Celtics won six of their last seven games.
-- Cavaliers covered five of their last six road games. Knicks won five of last seven games (6-1 vs spread).
-- Hawks won three of their last four games.
-- Memphis won five of its last seven games (6-1 vs spread).
-- Mavericks won their last seven games (6-1 vs spread).
-- Suns won four of their last five games.
-- Spurs won four of their last five games, but Parker is hurt.
-- Lakers won/covered their last five games.
• COLD TEAMS
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-- Toronto lost its last 11 road games (0-7 vs spread in last seven). Nets lost their last six games (2-4 vs spread).
-- Warriors lost four of their last five games.
-- Thunder is 0-3 vs spread in its last three road games.
-- Hornets lost 12 of their last 16 games.
-- Pacers lost three of their last four games.
-- Bucks lost 10 of last 14 games, covered one of last five.
-- Miami lost three of its last four games.
-- Bobcats lost last three road games, by 12-14-40 points.
• BACK-TO-BACK
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-- Orlando is 5-8 if it played night before, but 5-4 if it won.
-- Miami is 4-1 SU if it lost the night before.
• TOTALS
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-- Last three New Jersey games went over the total.
-- Last four Chicago games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-2 in Minnesota's last nine games.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in last 14 Golden State games. Four of last five Boston games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-3 in Cleveland's last dozen games.
-- Eight of last nine Atlanta games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-2 in last seven Memphis games. Four of Hornets' last five games stayed under.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Dallas games.
-- Under is 10-3 in Milwaukee's last thirteen games.
-- Five of Spurs' last six games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2 in Charlotte's last eight road games.
• KEY TRENDS
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-- The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall.
-- The under is 4-0 in the Nets’ last four overall and 10-1 in the Spurs’ last 11 home games.
-- The under is 4-0 in the Bulls’ last four overall and 9-2 in the Magic’s last 11 overall.
-- The Hornets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 overall and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• QUICK HITS
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--TORONTO VS. NEW JERSEY, 3:00 PM ET NBA TORONTO: 1-9 ATS in road games after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog. NEW JERSEY: 1-8 ATS vs. division opponents.
--CHICAGO @ ORLANDO, 7:00 PM ET ESPN CHICAGO: 16-6 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. ORLANDO: 9-18 ATS after playing a road game.
--MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA, 7:00 PM ET MINNESOTA: 14-3 ATS in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games. PHILADELPHIA: 7-17 ATS in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread.
--GOLDEN STATE @ BOSTON, 7:30 PM ET GOLDEN STATE: 20-6 ATS against Atlantic division opponents. BOSTON: 9-23 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points.
--CLEVELAND @ NEW YORK, 7:30 PM ET CLEVELAND: 6-16 ATS after a non-conference game. NEW YORK: 21-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins.
--OKLAHOMA CITY @ ATLANTA, 7:30 PM ET OKLAHOMA CITY: 7-3 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more. ATLANTA: 11-1 UNDER as a home underdog.
--NEW ORLEANS @ MEMPHIS, 8:00 PM ET NEW ORLEANS: 1-5 ATS after scoring 90 points or less 2 straight games. MEMPHIS: 17-5 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent.
--INDIANA @ DALLAS, 8:30 PM ET INDIANA: 6-19 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. DALLAS: 14-6 ATS off a road win.
--PHOENIX @ MILWAUKEE, 8:30 PM ET PHOENIX: 14-6 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games. MILWAUKEE: 9-18 ATS in non-conference games.
--MIAMI @ SAN ANTONIO, 9:30 PM ET ESPN MIAMI: 0-7 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games. SAN ANTONIO: 8-0 ATS in home games against Southeast division opponents.
--CHARLOTTE @ LA LAKERS, 10:30 PM ET CHARLOTTE: 10-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. LA LAKERS: 1-8 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins.
• NOTES & TIPS
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-- 20, 10, 2 – Averages that Orlando Magic big man Dwight Howard is eclipsing in points, rebounds, and blocks, respectively; the only NBA player to do so. Howard is going for 23.3 points, 13.9 points, and 2.2 blocks per game as of Thursday afternoon. Orlando is following up Thursday night’s showdown at Miami with another huge one on Friday at home against the Bulls. It also could be a crucial stretch in the MVP race for Howard (whose team just launched a website to campaign for him), LeBron James, and Derrick Rose.
-- Atlanta’s Josh Smith has a strained right MCL and he missed Wednesday night’s home win over Chicago, in which the Hawks stormed back from a 17-point deficit to prevail 83-80. Smith is listed as questionable for Friday’s home date against Oklahoma City. However, the news is even worse for the guy Smith likely would have guarded. Kevin Durant suffered a sprained ankle late in Wednesday’s 113-89 blowout of Indiana and he is listed as doubtful after missing practice on Thursday. James Harden will get the start if Durant cannot go against Atlanta.
-- Just when you thought it could not get any worse for the Miami Heat against good teams, Thursday happened. Playing at home against the Magic, Miami built a 24-point lead in the third quarter. Instead of putting the hammer down, the Heat let Orlando go on a shocking 40-9 run and eventually pull out a hard-to-believe 99-96 win. "We need to keep on pushing through," head coach Erik Spoelstra told the Miami Herald afterward. "There's no other way to say it. I think our guys are very anxious right now and they want it so bad. This will eventually help us. None of us want to talk about it right now, but we will eventually get over this hump." Both Miami and Orlando are back in action on Friday, and it does not get any easier for the Heat. They have to travel to San Antonio, which is 50-11 overall and 28-2 at home.
-- The Utah Jazz signed head coach Ty Corbin to a multiyear contract on Wednesday, less than a month after he succeeded Jerry Sloan. Terms of the deal were not announced. Jazz officials made it clear upon Sloan's Feb. 10 resignation that Corbin would be their coach of the future. "We actually not only talked the talk, we walked the walk and we put our money where our mouth is," Jazz CEO Randy Rigby said Wednesday. Rigby said it would have been easy to tell Corbin to wait, and see how the team finished and if it made the playoffs. "We don't believe in putting a coach in that position," Rigby said. "This is how we've always said we would treat (such situations)."
Corbin, who had served as an assistant under Sloan since the 2004-05 season, is the seventh head coach in Jazz history. Sloan abruptly resigned a day after clashing with All-Star point guard Deron Williams at halftime of a Feb. 9 loss to the Chicago Bulls, saying he simply was out of energy. Rigby said team owners literally had 30 minutes after Sloan slept on his decision to offer Corbin the job, and they chose to make him head coach rather than interim coach. "When we had (Karl) Malone, (John) Stockton and Sloan in place, it was easy (to talk about) stability," Rigby said.
In a span of 13 days, the franchise had its Hall of Fame coach retire then traded away Williams in a blockbuster deal that brought Devin Harris and rookie Derrick Favors plus two draft picks and cash to Utah. "We want the marketplace to realize this team is here in Utah to stay," Rigby said. "We're committed to this community and committed to its coaching staff and to winning and staying in control and protecting this great and valuable asset. It was demonstrated again today with this new contract."
Rigby said ownership was impressed with the energy displayed by the players during the turbulent month. Though they lost to Boston on Monday, the Jazz nearly pulled off the upset, and management was impressed with Corbin's leadership. "He really is the right man," Rigby said. Corbin and the Jazz face their next test Wednesday night against Denver, another team that made a blockbuster trade. The Jazz have dropped six straight at home - the team's worst home skid since 1982 - and 16 of the past 21.
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*** #801 TORONTO VS. #802 NEW JERSEY (-2.5, O/U 201.5) ***
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After spending just one day in his new apartment, New Jersey Nets point guard Deron Williams embarked on a trans-Atlantic trip to play a couple of home games in Britain. And he's feeling the effects. "I haven't had any time to just sit down somewhere and relax," Williams said Wednesday, a week after being traded from the Utah Jazz and two days before the first regular-season NBA games to be played in Europe. "I haven't had much time, been in my place for one day," Williams said. "I've done a lot of traveling over the last six days." On Friday, Williams will take the court with his new teammates from the Nets (17-43), this time against the Toronto Raptors (17-44) at London's O2 Arena. The teams will play again Saturday night.
"There's a lot of young talent on this team. It is a young team," Williams said. "The last 20 games will help us get used to each other and I think things will turn around for next year." Williams' impact has already been felt by his new teammates, and his home debut on Monday in Newark looked to be a big step in the right direction. Williams had 13 points and a season-high 18 assists, including five in rallying New Jersey from a seven-point deficit late in the fourth quarter of New Jersey's 104-103 overtime loss to the Phoenix Suns. "He's great," shooting guard Sasha Vujacic said of his new teammate.
"Obviously we'll need some time to get used to each other -- it's not going to happen overnight -- but just to have him, to have someone who knows how to play point guard ... it's just great addition to us and we are building a team for the future." The Nets arrived in London on Tuesday morning, taking an overnight flight after the loss to the Suns. For Vujacic, a Slovene drafted by Los Angeles Lakers in 2004, the trip may not be all that exotic, but it still takes some getting over. "Honestly, travel is terrible. It takes a lot out of you," Vujacic said. "It takes your legs away, especially for the shooters. Sometimes it's very tricky, but we have to learn how to live with it."
The Raptors landed Wednesday morning, but already had their first practice at the O2 in the afternoon. "The idea for the first day is just to go up and down a little bit, get the blood flowing a little bit and try to get them on the correct sleep pattern," Raptors coach Jay Triano said. "We'll try to get as much rest as we can today." Raptors guard Jose Calderon of Spain also is used to the overseas flights, but that doesn't make it any easier for him to prepare for big games. "Always the first day, it's kind of tough when you arrive in Europe after the flight," said Calderon, who scored a season-high 22 points in Toronto's 96-90 win over the New Orleans Hornets on Tuesday.
"But we'll be OK... We just got to practice a little bit, sweat, and be ready for tomorrow. Get a good night's sleep, and from there we'll be ready for Friday." Despite the travel and fatigue issues, Vujacic still believes it is possible that an NBA franchise could be based in Europe one day. "I think it's about time," said Vujacic, who is expecting friends and family from all over the Europe to be at the games. "It's just a matter of time when it's going to happen. The game is so interesting. It's so easy to fall in love with it." Raptors center Andrea Bargnani, who is from Italy, is less convinced.
"I don't think it's going to happen. The flight today was long, the jet lag is tough," Bargnani said. "I hope it's not going to happen. It's more fun to come over here once a year like this, but to come here often with our schedule is pretty tough." The NBA has not set a timeline of putting a permanent team in Europe, but Commissioner David Stern did come through after saying for years that he wanted regular-season games in London before the 2012 Olympics in the city. For Williams, that likely means another trip to London next July as a member of the U.S. national team. "I plan to be back over here for the Olympics," Williams said. "Hopefully get my second gold medal."
--NEW JERSEY is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW JERSEY 88.1, OPPONENT 99.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW JERSEY is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games this season.
The average score was NEW JERSEY 44.2, OPPONENT 45.6 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New Jersey by 1; O/U 198
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New Jersey -3
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Toronto -0.56
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs the money line (TORONTO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a win by 6 points or less.
(39-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.7%, +30.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -148.3
The average score in these games was: Team 105.8, Opponent 96.4 (Average point differential = +9.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-5, +14.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (60-19, +27.9 units).
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the money line (NEW JERSEY) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games.
(117-26 since 1996.) (81.8%, +59.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -221.7
The average score in these games was: Team 105.7, Opponent 97.4 (Average point differential = +8.2)
The situation's record this season is: (13-5, +2.2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (60-12, +33 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (84-20, +39.2 units).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (NEW JERSEY) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as a home underdog.
(41-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.7%, +22.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 199.3
The average score in these games was: Team 96.6, Opponent 97.6 (Total points scored = 194.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 35 (59.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (7-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-10).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (91-55).
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*** #803 CHICAGO @ #804 ORLANDO (-2, O/U 187.5) ***
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Jason Richardson said earlier this week if the Orlando Magic want to be considered contenders, they had to impress during a three-game stretch against other strong teams from the Eastern Conference. Through two of those games, they've managed to do just that despite only playing 48 good minutes. A pair of furious second-half rallies have the Magic's winning streak at four heading into Friday night's visit from the Central Division-leading Chicago Bulls, who hope to put a second-half collapse behind them and avoid their sixth straight loss in Orlando. The Magic (40-22) cruised past Oklahoma City and Charlotte after dropping their first game following the All-Star break, a loss to Sacramento that caused Dwight Howard to question his team's effort.
That led into a stretch of three games in four nights against New York, Miami and Chicago (41-18) that Orlando knew would be a serious measuring stick. Richardson said Monday he saw the week as a chance for the Magic to "redeem themselves." That seems fitting given how the first two games have unfolded. Down 11 at halftime to the Knicks on Tuesday, Orlando scored 69 second-half points en route to a 116-110 win, though that comeback paled in comparison to what happened Thursday. The Heat led 73-49 with nine minutes left in the third, but the Magic didn't pack it in. They ended the game on a 50-23 run, sparked by 17 of Richardson's team-high 24 points to pull off a 99-96 shocker.
The comeback was the second-largest in franchise history and matched the NBA's second-biggest turnaround of the season. "To tell you the truth, I didn't even know we were down that much," Orlando guard Jameer Nelson said. "I was just playing. I just think that's what you have to do when you know you can play better and you're not playing up to your potential. Just get it going somehow, not worry about the score." Meanwhile, The Bulls can certainly relate to what the Knicks and Heat went through against Orlando. Chicago led Atlanta 50-33 at halftime Wednesday before falling apart in the final 24 minutes, scoring just 30 points after the break and losing 83-80.
Derrick Rose, who missed 16 of his 21 shots and had six turnovers, accepted the blame. "I made some careless passes," Rose said. "The game was definitely on me. ... But I guarantee it won't happen again." Rose hasn't had much shooting success in a pair of home games against the Magic this season. He shot 5 of 13 as Orlando throttled the Bulls 107-78 on Dec. 1, then shot 6 of 21 in the rematch Jan. 28. He finished with 22 points and 12 assists in that one, though, and Luol Deng scored a team-high 26 to lift Chicago to a 99-90 victory. Howard had 40 points and 15 rebounds in the loss for the Magic.
The Bulls haven't visited Orlando since March 11, when they were without Deng and Joakim Noah in a 111-82 loss, their fifth straight in central Florida. While Rose and Howard are clearly two of the league's top players, much of the success for the Bulls and Magic hinges on how Deng and Richardson, respectively, perform. Chicago is 23-5 when Deng scores 19 points or more, while Orlando is 18-5 when Richardson contributes at least 11 points. Carlos Boozer's 24.6 points per game at Orlando since 2005-06 are his most in any visiting venue, though this is his first trip since joining the Bulls.
--CHICAGO is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 97.5, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) after allowing 85 points or less this season.
The average score was CHICAGO 92.7, OPPONENT 86.4 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Orlando by 3.5; O/U 190
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Orlando -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Orlando -2.98
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the money line (ORLANDO) - after a close win by 3 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less.
(96-24 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +48.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -197.7
The average score in these games was: Team 101.6, Opponent 95.7 (Average point differential = +5.9)
The situation's record this season is: (14-3, +7.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (61-13, +36.5 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (256-95, +50.6 units).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (ORLANDO) - after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less.
(35-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (31-15 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2
The average score in these games was: Team 99, Opponent 94.7 (Average point differential = +4.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (39.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (91-74).
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*** #805 MINNESOTA @ #806 PHILADELPHIA (-9.5, O/U 206) ***
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The Philadelphia 76ers have played well at home against some of the Western Conference's top teams. A visit from the conference's worst club would seem like a break, but the Minnesota Timberwolves have been playing better on the road lately. Philadelphia looks for its fourth straight home win over the Timberwolves on Friday night and first sweep of this season series in five years. Already with seven more home victories this season (19) than in 2009-10, Philadelphia is 18-6 at the Wells Fargo Center since Nov. 17 with a 7-3 mark against the West, including wins over San Antonio, Denver, New Orleans and Portland.
Coach Doug Collins' team had a chance to knock off visiting Dallas on Tuesday, trailing by three with less than a minute to go, but lost 101-93 as its season-high four-game winning streak was snapped. Philadelphia (30-30), though, remains in seventh place in the East, 1 1/2 games back of sixth-place New York. "We played toe-to-toe with one of the best, one of the hottest teams in the league," Collins said of the Mavericks, who have won 17 of 18 and are second in the West. "I'm proud of them for that. Our guys are doing this for the first time. They've been at it for a while, they've been here a lot of times. That showed tonight."
The 76ers have won three in a row at home versus Minnesota since Dec. 3, 2006, and posted a 119-97 victory in the Timberwolves' last visit Feb. 9, 2010. Coach Kurt Rambis' team, however, has won three of five on the road after opening 2-23 on opponents' home courts. Led by 20 points and 20 rebounds from Kevin Love, Minnesota (15-47) opened its three-game trip Wednesday with a 116-105 victory over Detroit. Anthony Randolph had 19 points and 10 boards, Lazar Hayward scored 16 and Anthony Tolliver added 13 for a Timberwolves bench which had a season-high 61 points. "I was really happy with our effort and energy tonight," Rambis said. "I thought our second unit played very well together, which helped us a lot."
Philadelphia's reserves are scoring a league-best 39.9 points per game despite being held to 29 on Tuesday. While Minnesota's play has been inconsistent this season, Rambis can count on Love for a double-double every night. The All-Star forward, averaging a team-high 20.9 points and a league-leading 15.5 rebounds, tops the NBA with 57 double-doubles and has recorded 48 straight, the longest such streak since Moses Malone's 51-game run in 1978-79.
Love had 16 points and 13 rebounds in a 107-87 home loss to Philadelphia on Feb. 12. Minnesota second-leading scorer Michael Beasley missed that matchup with a sprained ankle and has been inconsistent since returning, scoring more than 20 points in two games but averaging 10.8 on 30.0 percent shooting in the other four. Thaddeus Young had 18 points off the bench in the last meeting to lead seven players in double figures for Philadelphia, which shot 51.3 percent. The 76ers last swept Minnesota in 2005-06 when they won both games by a total of three points.
--PHILADELPHIA is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 101.7, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 98.0, OPPONENT 109.5 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Philadelphia by 11; O/U 204
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Philadelphia -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Philadelphia -9.88
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs the money line (MINNESOTA) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 Reb/G) vs. an average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) after 42+ games.
(39-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.6%, +31.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -159
The average score in these games was: Team 100.4, Opponent 92 (Average point differential = +8.4)
The situation's record this season is: (7-0, +7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-4, +15.3 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (53-13, +27.2 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog.
(56-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (87.5%, +40.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -189.4
The average score in these games was: Team 104.6, Opponent 95.2 (Average point differential = +9.4)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1, -2.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-5, +21 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (89-31, +25.8 units).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two good FT shooting teams (76-79%) after 42+ games, after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less.
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 57.5, Opponent 54.8 (Total first half points scored = 112.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (35-13).
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*** #807 GOLDEN STATE @ #808 BOSTON (-9.5, O/U 201.5) ***
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Kevin Garnett's 24-point performance against the Golden State Warriors last week marked his best offensive game in almost three months. He didn't wait nearly that long to top it. Coming off his highest-scoring effort in nearly three years, Garnett looks to stay hot Friday night against the visiting Warriors as he tries to lead the Boston Celtics to a fourth straight win. Garnett has helped Boston (44-15) establish a reputation as the league's best defensive team since arriving in the summer of 2007, but his age, an excellent supporting cast and a few nagging injuries have kept him from being the consistent offensive force he was in Minnesota.
Since the All-Star break, he's done an awfully good impression of the player that averaged at least 21.2 points for eight straight seasons. Garnett had 24 points, 12 rebounds and six assists in a 115-93 rout of the Warriors (27-33) on Feb. 22, at the time the most points he'd put up since scoring 26 against Toronto on Nov. 26. After three more double-doubles that brought his streak to five, Garnett outdid himself Wednesday against Phoenix. He had 28 points and 11 rebounds in Boston's 115-103 victory. The most in a regular-season game for the 14-time All-Star since March 26, 2008, when he scored 30. "I walked into shootaround before the game and put 20 on the board and said 'that's how many attempts you should have,'" coach Doc Rivers explained. "You shouldn't go through a game where a smaller big is on you and not get 20 attempts."
All of Garnett's points came in the first 33 minutes as he helped put the Celtics up by as many as 29. Boston improved to 10-1 this season and 32-6 over the past three seasons when Garnett scores at least 19 points. Garnett might have to do a little bit more offensively with fellow low-post threat Glen Davis on the shelf for at least a week. Davis hurt his knee going up for a dunk late against the Suns, and was diagnosed Thursday with patellar tendinitis. That should mean more time for recent acquisitions Nenad Krstic and Troy Murphy, who played 14 minutes and scored one point in his Celtics debut Wednesday, two days after he was bought out by Golden State.
The loss to the Celtics began a four-game skid for the Warriors, but they put an end to it Wednesday in Washington barely. Golden State was up by 20 points late in the third before watching the lead shrink to one, but held on for a 106-102 victory behind 29 points from Stephen Curry. "When you've gone through a streak of losing, to get a win no matter how it ends up nobody will pay attention to how the fourth quarter went," coach Keith Smart said after the Warriors improved to 1-2 on their seven-game road trip.
If Golden State plans on winning in Boston for the first time since Garnett's arrival, it will likely need more from Monta Ellis than the 15 points he contributed while shooting 6 of 18 last week. Ellis has been held to 17.0 points per game -- 7.7 below his average -- and 36.2 percent shooting since the All-Star break. The Warriors also need to slow down Rajon Rondo, who's averaged 22.3 points and 14.0 assists in his last three games in this series. Al Thornton, released by Washington earlier this week, is expected to be in uniform for Golden State after signing with the Warriors on Thursday.
--GOLDEN STATE is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 98.7, OPPONENT 111.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 12-0 UNDER (+12.0 Units) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 97.7, OPPONENT 98.4 - (Rating = 5*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 12; O/U 196.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -13
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -12.04
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY UNDER - Any team (BOSTON) - after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.
(66-26 since 1996.) (71.7%, +37.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 200.2
The average score in these games was: Team 98.3, Opponent 97.6 (Total points scored = 195.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 52 (56.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (25-16).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (37-17).
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*** #809 CLEVELAND @ #810 NEW YORK (-12, O/U 217.5) ***
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The Cavaliers have shocked the New York Knicks twice this season in Cleveland, including an impressive win just a week ago in the road debut of new Knicks Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups. Both teams could look considerably different when they meet Friday at Madison Square Garden. Billups is doubtful and Cleveland's Antawn Jamison who helped spearhead last week's victory is out, but the Cavaliers will likely have Baron Davis on the floor for the first time as they look for an 11th consecutive win against the Knicks. Given the state of the two franchises over the past few seasons, it wasn't that surprising Cleveland came into 2010-11 with an eight-game winning streak versus New York (31-28).
What is surprising is that it's continued. The Cavaliers (11-49) picked up their lone victory in a 37-game stretch by beating the Knicks 109-102 in overtime Dec. 18, then stunned them again last Friday with a 115-109 win despite Amare Stoudemire, Anthony and Billups combining for 84 points. New York bounced back by winning twice in a stretch of three games in four days. After splitting games at Miami and Orlando, Billups bruised his quadriceps in a loss to the Magic, the Knicks played without their new point guard Wednesday against New Orleans, but shot 54.5 percent in a 107-88 victory.
Toney Douglas had 24 points in Billups' place. "When you have players like myself and Carmelo who demand so much attention, the game seems to open up for guys like (Douglas), so he took advantage of it," said Stoudemire, who also finished with 24. Douglas has averaged just 4.5 points and shot 21.1 percent in the two losses to Cleveland, but New York might need him to step up again Friday. Billups sat out Thursday's practice and is doubtful to face the Cavaliers. Two days after Jamison's 28 points and 13 rebounds sparked the victory over the Knicks, Cleveland's leading scorer broke his left pinky. He likely won't play again this season.
The Cavaliers had a particularly difficult task in their first game without Jamison. They shot 39.6 percent, their worst effort since late January in a 109-99 loss Wednesday to league-best San Antonio. One bright spot was Samardo Samuels, who replaced Jamison and made his first pro start. The undrafted rookie responded with season highs of 23 points and 10 rebounds. "I know every day that I come in, I'm going to work hard and I know my teammates are doing the same," Samuels said. "That's what I'm going to keep doing, nothing is going to change." The Cavs lost Luke Harangody to a hip pointer and were already without Daniel Gibson, who is all but certain to miss his second straight game with a quad injury.
They should get one reinforcement Friday with the debut of Davis, who was acquired from the Clippers along with an unprotected first-round pick last week for Mo Williams. Davis has missed the Cavaliers' three games since the trade because of a knee injury, but he's expected to make his Cleveland debut by backing up Ramon Sessions. "(I'm excited) to get out here and start working with these young guys, Davis said. "It'll be good to get out there in a game situation and just see what we can all do together." Davis had 16 points and a season-high 16 assists as the Clippers beat the Knicks 116-108 at MSG on Feb. 9.
--CLEVELAND is 8-24 against the 1rst half line (-18.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 49.5, OPPONENT 58.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 5-18 against the 1rst half line (-14.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 51.2, OPPONENT 58.6 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - New York by 12; O/U 214
*STAN'S POWER LINE - New York -10.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New York -12.90
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home favorites vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite of 7or more against opponent off a home loss.
(62-6 since 1996.) (91.2%, +45.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -275.8
The average score in these games was: Team 102.3, Opponent 89.8 (Average point differential = +12.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-1, +14.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-2, +19.4 units).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread against opponent after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread.
(52-20 since 1996.) (72.2%, +30.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 216
The average score in these games was: Team 111.3, Opponent 112.5 (Total points scored = 223.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 38 (53.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-11).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (41-15).
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*** #811 OKLAHOMA CITY @ #812 ATLANTA (NL) ***
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Being without the NBA scoring leader would seem to significantly decrease the chances of the Oklahoma City Thunder pulling off a tough road win. Then again, they've done fine this season when Kevin Durant hasn't been available. The star forward is unlikely to play when the Thunder visit the Atlanta Hawks on Friday night. Oklahoma City (37-22) had no problem winning Wednesday after losing Durant, who scored 21 points before spraining his ankle in the third quarter of a 113-89 victory over Indiana. He said that it was just a tweak and hoped to play Friday, but the Thunder announced Thursday that he was doubtful after being held out of practice.
"With Kevin, he has the toughness, he loves to play, so when he's ready, he's going to step on the court and play at the level that we all are accustomed to seeing," coach Scott Brooks said. Durant, averaging a league-high 28.4 points and 7.1 rebounds, said he hasn't experienced the swelling he had when he sprained the same ankle and had to miss two games in November. Oklahoma City won both of those games, and it is 3-1 this season with Durant out of the lineup, all four contests coming on the road. Russell Westbrook has been the main reason the Thunder have been able to overcome Durant's absence in those games, as he recorded 34- and 31-point performances in two of the victories that Durant sat out. Westbrook scored 21 against the Pacers.
Brooks says guard James Harden, who had 20 points Wednesday, would likely start in Durant's place if he's unable to go. Center Nazr Mohammed and point guard Nate Robinson made their Thunder debuts against Indiana, with Mohammed finishing with eight points and seven rebounds and Robinson scoring six points in eight minutes. Atlanta (37-24) certainly won't miss facing Durant. He's averaged 30.8 points in his last four meetings with the Hawks, the last three of which were Thunder victories. He scored 33 in a 103-94 win over Atlanta on Dec. 31. Oklahoma City may not be the only team that's short-handed Friday. Atlanta forward Josh Smith is day-to-day with a sprained medial collateral ligament in his right knee, an injury that kept him out of an 83-80 win over Chicago on Wednesday.
Smith, averaging 16.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists, was replaced in the lineup by Jason Collins, who scored one point. Like the Thunder, the Hawks had someone step up in a top player's absence. Forward Al Horford scored a career high-tying 31 points to help rally Atlanta from a 19-point deficit against the Bulls, and his dunk with 29 seconds left gave the Hawks their first lead. Horford shot 9 of 12 in the second half after being held to nine points before the break. He scored 13 points in the third quarter and had 16 rebounds for the second straight game.
"He was a beast tonight," coach Larry Drew said. "He did it on both ends. "In the huddles he was cheering the guys and telling them to keep playing. He was phenomenal." Horford was also part of a defensive effort that allowed the Hawks to hold their third opponent in four games to fewer than 85 points. Atlanta plays nine of its next 10 at home, where it's won 15 of 19. The Hawks, however, have gone 1-6 in their last seven home games against Oklahoma City.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Atlanta by 1; O/U 200
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Oklahoma City -1
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Atlanta -0.40
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 85 points or less.
(61-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.7%, +41.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -174.5
The average score in these games was: Team 101.7, Opponent 91.8 (Average point differential = +9.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-6, +26.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (146-37, +58.6 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (OKLAHOMA CITY) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after game - allowing a shooting pct. of 35% or less.
(25-6 since 1996.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.5, Opponent 45.6 (Average first half point differential = +3.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
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*** #813 NEW ORLEANS @ #814 MEMPHIS (NL) ***
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The Memphis Grizzlies haven't reached the playoffs in five years, but they've been surging toward an end to that streak of late. The New Orleans Hornets have been in the postseason more recently, and they seem to be lacking that same intensity to return. The Grizzlies can move past the struggling Hornets for seventh place in the Western Conference if they can earn their season-high sixth straight home win Friday night. Memphis (34-28) defeated NBA-leading San Antonio 109-93 on Tuesday, giving it a split of the home-and-home series. The Grizzlies have won 15 of 20, moving them within a half-game of New Orleans (35-28).
Memphis, which improved to 21-8 at FedExForum, hasn't made the playoffs since 2005-06. "We don't want to get complacent or pat ourselves on the back yet," said guard Tony Allen, who scored 20 points and is averaging 15.6 in the last nine games, more than double his season average. "We're just trying to get better each and every day. "We look at the standings every day, and we definitely want to move up... We want to try and win every game. No matter how the standings fluctuate, we've still got to play hard." The Grizzlies forced the Spurs to commit 22 turnovers that led to 30 points. Memphis leads the league with 16.8 turnovers forced per game and has averaged 18.7 in the last three.
"That's what we do," coach Lionel Hollins said. "Sometimes we're all over the court and it looks like mayhem, but then we get a deflection and a steal. That's what good teams do. You just have to keep making second and third efforts." While the Grizzlies are red-hot, New Orleans has lost three straight and 12 of 16. The Hornets fell 107-88 at New York on Wednesday in the second game of a five-game road trip, looking lackadaisical and uninspired throughout the contest. "I just think we didn't have the fight that we've had this year. I had to address some things after the game personally with some guys," coach Monty Williams said. "I'm not going to get to the summer time and have stones that are unturned."
"I cannot stomach guys that go out there and don't play with passion and go out there and play afraid. That's what I saw tonight." He also saw All-Star point guard Chris Paul continue to struggle with his shooting. Paul scored a season-low four points and went 2 of 7 from the field against the Knicks, and he's totaled 17 points the last three games while making seven of 29 shots. Paul has shot poorly for nearly a month, making 34.7 percent from the floor and averaging 11.6 points in his last 11 games. He's shooting 46.6 percent this season and 47.2 percent in his career.
Center Emeka Okafor's numbers have also been down since he returned from an oblique strain that kept him out 10 games. He's totaled 15 points in his last three contests and was a combined 3 for 12 from the field in the last two. The Hornets defeated the Grizzlies 103-102 in overtime on the road Jan. 19, as Marcus Thornton helped break up an inbounds pass with 14 seconds left in the extra period and finished the ensuing fast break with a layup. Paul, who wound up with the ball after Thornton and Ariza tipped it on the decisive play, had 20 points and 12 assists. New Orleans has won 16 of the last 20 meetings but lost the most recent matchup in Memphis 107-96 on April 2.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Memphis by 4; O/U 189.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Memphis -8
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Memphis -3.36
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 90 points or less 3 straight games.
(28-3 since 1996.) (90.3%, +23.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -160
The average score in these games was: Team 101.8, Opponent 94.1 (Average point differential = +7.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-0, +8 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-0, +10 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after 4 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG).
(69-13 since 1996.) (84.1%, +44.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -185.8
The average score in these games was: Team 102.1, Opponent 93.6 (Average point differential = +8.5)
The situation's record this season is: (5-1, +2 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (36-3, +29.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (44-7, +30.5 units).
--PLAY ON - Road underdogs (NEW ORLEANS) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(26-5 since 1996.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (14-18)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.8
The average score in these games was: Team 94.7, Opponent 94.9 (Average point differential = -0.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (46.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ORLEANS) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(36-11 since 1996.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.4, Opponent 47.2 (Average first half point differential = +1.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-4).
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*** #815 INDIANA @ #816 DALLAS (-8.5, O/U 208.5) ***
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The Dallas Mavericks are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. That depth is about to be tested with starting center Tyson Chandler sidelined. With Chandler expected to miss at least two games, Brendan Haywood will likely start as the Mavericks look to win their eighth straight overall and ninth in a row at home Friday night against the Indiana Pacers. The Mavericks (44-16) have already been playing without Caron Butler, who averages 15.0 points per game but has been out since suffering a right patella tendon injury Jan. 1. Even without him and Chandler, Dallas has six players scoring at least 8.4 points and grabbing 4.7 rebounds or more per game.
"We just keep coming, wave after wave," point guard Jason Kidd said after a 13-point, 13-assist, 10-rebound effort in a 101-93 victory at Philadelphia on Tuesday. Dallas, which last won nine straight at home from Feb. 18-March 25, 2009, will look to Haywood to help it overcome its latest significant injury. The 7-foot-1 Chandler has averaged 12.8 points and 10.0 rebounds in the last 18 games, helping the Mavs go 17-1 in that span to move into second place in the Western Conference. The 7-0 Haywood was expected to be the starting center after signing an extension in the offseason, but that changed when Chandler was acquired from Charlotte over the summer.
Haywood is averaging career lows of 4.3 points, 4.7 boards and 17.5 minutes, but with Chandler's status uncertain, the Mavericks hope he can have the same impact he did after being acquired from Washington last season. Haywood averaged 9.8 points, 9.1 rebounds and 2.3 blocks while starting the first 10 games of a 13-game winning streak Feb. 17-March 10. During that stretch, Haywood scored 13 points and grabbed a career high-tying 20 boards in a 91-82 home win over Indiana. He went 3 of 4 from the field and had seven points and four rebounds Tuesday.
The Mavericks have won six straight and 10 off 11 at home against the Pacers. Dallas, though, had its five-game winning streak in the series snapped with a 102-89 loss Jan. 12. With leading scorer Dirk Nowitzki sidelined for that game with a sprained right knee, Jason Terry had a team-high 18 points off the bench. Terry, the league's top-scoring reserve at 15.8 points per game, had a season-best 30 on Tuesday. He has hit 42.3 percent (30 of 71) from 3-point range during the 17-1 run.
The Pacers (27-33) have lost five of eight since opening 7-1 under interim coach Frank Vogel. Starting a stretch of six of seven on the road, Indiana fell 113-89 at Oklahoma City on Wednesday. Pacers starters scored a season-low 33 points and shot 9 of 38, with leading scorer Danny Granger going 3 of 11 and finishing with nine points. "We just have to understand that we're a better basketball team that we showed tonight and get ready for Dallas," Vogel said. Indiana has lost seven in a row on the road versus West opponents. The Pacers' last season sweep of Dallas was 2003-04.
--DALLAS is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season.
The average score was DALLAS 102.4, OPPONENT 95.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--DALLAS is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games this season.
The average score was DALLAS 103.1, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Dallas by 8.5; O/U 199.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Dallas -11
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Dallas -7.77
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days.
(50-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.5%, +29.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53.2, Opponent 48 (Average first half point differential = +5.2)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-13).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (116-79).
--PLAY ON - Home teams (DALLAS) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%).
(55-22 since 1996.) (71.4%, +30.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (71-9)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 9.6
The average score in these games was: Team 101.1, Opponent 88.6 (Average point differential = +12.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 25 (32.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-12).
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*** #817 PHOENIX (-2.5, O/U 194.5) @ #818 MILWAUKEE ***
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Known for their potent offense, the Phoenix Suns used a tremendous defensive effort to defeat the Milwaukee Bucks last month. The Suns look to continue their dominance of the Bucks and win for the fifth time in six games Friday night at the Bradley Center. Despite scoring 100-plus points for a season high-tying eighth consecutive game, Phoenix (31-28) saw its four-game winning streak come to an end with a 115-103 loss at Boston on Wednesday night. The Suns dropped 1 1/2 games back of Memphis for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. If history is any indication, though, they could get back on track against Milwaukee, as they've taken 34 of 39 in the series. Phoenix posted a 92-77 victory Feb. 2 as the Bucks struggled to get anything going offensively.
Playing without center Andrew Bogut, Milwaukee (23-36) was outrebounded 54-39 and shot 31.1 percent for its lowest mark since shooting 30.4 percent in an 87-76 loss to Detroit on Dec. 27, 2008. Milwaukee, which has scored 90.4 points per game over a 4-10 stretch, was again without Bogut and not much better against the Pistons on Tuesday night. The Bucks, though, managed to pull out a 92-90 victory thanks in part to Brandon Jennings' 21 points. Jennings had six points on 2-of-10 shooting against the Suns last month in his third game back after missing 19 because of a broken foot.
He was benched in the fourth quarter of Saturday night's 83-75 loss to Chicago but was glad to step up when his team needed it most Tuesday. "That's just making plays down the stretch in the fourth quarter," said Jennings, who scored 23 points to lead the Bucks to a 107-98 home victory over Phoenix on April 3. "That was something I asked for. I knew Coach (Scott Skiles) was going to challenge me. He kind of kept the ball in my hands in the fourth quarter, so I had to contribute for him." Jon Brockman recorded eight points and eight rebounds in his first start at forward for Milwaukee as Bogut, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Ersan Ilyasova and Drew Gooden were all out with injuries. Bogut, averaging 12.6 points and a team-best 11.5 rebounds, and Gooden won't be available Friday, and the statuses of Mbah a Moute and Ilyasova remain unknown.
The Suns could also be short-handed, as Vince Carter and Channing Frye banged heads in the third quarter against the Celtics and missed the rest of the game. Phoenix's bench outscored its starters 63-40 on Wednesday. "Don't get me wrong our bench can start, so we have a pretty good team," said reserve Mickael Pietrus, who has scored at least 10 points in six of seven games. "So hopefully we can make that last push with our second unit to make the playoffs. Just play to win." Steve Nash had registered double-digit assists in a season-best 10 straight games before finishing with seven against Boston. Nash is averaging 19.3 points against the Bucks over his career, his most against any opponent but he's totaled 19 in the last two meetings. The Suns have taken eight of 11 on the road and conclude their season-high six-game trip Sunday against Oklahoma City.
--MILWAUKEE is 21-5 UNDER (+15.5 Units) the 1rst half total in non-conference games this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 44.2, OPPONENT 46.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--MILWAUKEE is 20-6 UNDER (+13.4 Units) in non-conference games this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 89.1, OPPONENT 92.8 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Milwaukee by 1; O/U 195.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Phoenix -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Milwaukee -1.80
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Home underdogs vs. the money line (MILWAUKEE) - in non-conference games, off a close win by 3 points or less over a division rival.
(24-2 since 1996.) (92.3%, +20.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -167.5
The average score in these games was: Team 105.3, Opponent 96.6 (Average point differential = +8.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1, -2.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1, +2.9 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2, +3.7 units).
--PLAY ON - Road teams (PHOENIX) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half.
(29-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (22-13 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.2
The average score in these games was: Team 104.9, Opponent 103.1 (Average point differential = +1.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (47.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-5).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (30-11).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games.
(29-7 since 1996.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.5, Opponent 45.5 (Total first half points scored = 92.1)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-1).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite.
(36-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +26.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.1, Opponent 45.9 (Average first half point differential = +2.2)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-9).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (69-50).
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*** #819 MIAMI @ #820 SAN ANTONIO (-2, O/U 195.5) ***
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The Miami Heat and their Big Three may be getting most of the NBA's hype this season, but it's the San Antonio Spurs who comfortably lead the league. Dominating play at home is one reason for that. After reaching 50 wins for the 12th consecutive season, the Spurs will again try to overcome the absence of the injured Tony Parker to push their record home winning streak to 22 against the Heat on Friday night. With LeBron James and Chris Bosh having joined Dwyane Wade, Miami (43-18) leads the Southeast Division and is second in the Eastern Conference behind Boston. However, the Spurs (50-11) own the best overall record and a 5 1/2-game cushion over Dallas in the West.
That success has been sparked by San Antonio's 28-2 record at the AT&T Center, where they have won a franchise-record 21 straight the longest such streak since James spurred Cleveland to a 23-0 home start in 2008-09. The Spurs have had little trouble prevailing when hosting the Heat, taking 21 of 23 all-time. They pounded Miami 108-78 in the most recent meeting in San Antonio on Dec. 31, 2009, before sweeping the season series with an 88-76 victory March 16 in Miami. To continue that success, San Antonio will need to overcome a third consecutive game without Parker, who could miss up to four weeks with a left calf injury.
The Spurs have split two games without him as George Hill has stepped in at point guard. Hill is averaging 11.3 points and 2.4 assists while starting three games in 2010-11, but he came up big Wednesday by scoring 22 points with five assists and five rebounds in a 109-99 road victory over the Cavaliers. He had just six points in Tuesday's 109-93 loss at Memphis. "As long as TP is out, that is what he is going to have to do," said forward Tim Duncan. "He will have to accept that role and give us some fire from that position." Hill has been impressive while helping the Spurs win three in a row versus the Heat, averaging 14.7 points on 60.9 percent shooting.
Despite its star-studded lineup, Miami is only 14-16 against teams at or above .500. The team is 0-2 to start a stretch of 11 consecutive games versus teams with winning records, including five against current division leaders and two against San Antonio. The Heat turned in perhaps their most disappointing performance of the season Thursday, falling 99-96 to Orlando after having a 24-point, third-quarter lead erased by the Magic's stunning 40-9 run. "The urgency is there," said Wade, who had 28 points.
"Just got to finish it. We enjoy these games. We play them hard. ... It's growing pains and it (stinks). You look for the light at the end of the tunnel." Wade was limited to 16 points and committed seven turnovers in the Heat's most recent visit to San Antonio. However, he'll have some assistance this time from James, who is averaging 32.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.3 assists over his last eight meetings with the Spurs, winning six while with Cleveland. Bosh continues to struggle from the field, making 31.7 percent of his shots and averaging 13.8 points with 8.5 rebounds over the last four games. He had 32 points and 10 boards in Toronto's 131-124 loss on Nov. 9, 2009 in San Antonio.
--SAN ANTONIO is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 103.4, OPPONENT 94.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 12-1 against the 1rst half line (+10.9 Units) in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 50.9, OPPONENT 47.2 - (Rating = 4*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Antonio by 4.5; O/U 197.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Antonio -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Antonio -2.77
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Road teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (MIAMI) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite, playing on back-to-back days.
(31-6 since 1996.) (83.8%, +24.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.2, Opponent 44.6 (Average first half point differential = +6.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs (MIAMI) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(63-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.8%, +34.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (75-19 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5
The average score in these games was: Team 104.3, Opponent 96.6 (Average point differential = +7.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 32 (34.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (11-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (47-21).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (154-123).
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*** #821 CHARLOTTE @ #822 LA LAKERS (-12.5, O/U 191.5) ***
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An upcoming four-game road trip would certainly put the Los Angeles Lakers' undefeated record since the All-Star break at risk. However, they can't overlook a home game with a sub-.500 team which has given them fits. Seeking a sixth consecutive win overall, Los Angeles will look to avenge last month's embarrassing defeat to the Charlotte Bobcats and avoid a ninth loss in 11 games in the series Friday night. The Lakers (43-19) have won five in a row since All-Star weekend, Dallas is the only other unbeaten team since the break (4-0) after entering it having lost three straight. That skid included a 109-89 defeat at Charlotte on Feb. 14, their most lopsided loss of the season.
While Kobe Bryant is averaging 29.8 points against the Bobcats (26-34), his highest mark against any opponent his individual numbers haven't translated into much team success. "I don't know what it is about the Lakers, but the last eight out of 10 games our team has beaten the Lakers and that's pretty special," Charlotte coach Paul Silas said. The Bobcats, though, have undergone some major changes since that Feb. 14 win, most notably sending swingman Gerald Wallace to Portland for Joel Przybilla, Sean Marks, Dante Cunningham and two first-round picks before the trade deadline.
The Lakers' only two wins in the last 10 meetings both came with Wallace sidelined by injury. Charlotte was able to pull out a victory in its first contest without Wallace but has since suffered ugly back-to-back losses, including a 120-80 defeat at Denver on Wednesday night, the biggest loss in franchise history. "We just can't get on the same page and we are not trusting each other," forward Stephen Jackson told the Bobcats' official website. "We are still trying to put this new team together but rotation and being on the same page should be automatic. When we don't trust each other and are not on the same page then we get beat by 40."
Even if the Lakers avenge their ugly loss to Charlotte, they will have a tough time keeping their win streak going after that. They begin a four-game trek Sunday against league-best San Antonio before visiting Atlanta, Miami and Dallas. Los Angeles is a combined 1-4 against those teams. Los Angeles, though, has been playing excellent defense lately, holding opponents to 88.4 points per game during its win streak, 7.4 below its season average and 41.3 percent from the field. The Lakers rank in the top 10 in the league with 102.0 points per game but couldn't get much going offensively Tuesday night as defense keyed another win, 90-79 at Minnesota.
Coach Phil Jackson's team recorded its second-worst shooting percentage of the season (37.5) but allowed its second-lowest point total of 2010-11 and outrebounded the Timberwolves 53-39. Pau Gasol registered his sixth double-double in seven games with 12 points and 17 rebounds. "That's why we've been able to win back-to-back championships because we have a great team," said Bryant, who scored 24 points. "Pieces complement each other extremely well. That's the trick, that's the key. Management has done a great job."
The Bobcats haven't had the same kind of chemistry since Wallace's departure, averaging 83.0 points on 38.4 percent shooting in the last two games. They've lost three straight and six of eight on the road, though they're within one game of Indiana for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Jackson averaged 32.5 points in the first two games after Wallace was traded before being held to seven points on 3-for-10 shooting Wednesday. He also shot 3 of 10 for nine points last month against the Lakers, but his teammates hit a combined 54.2 percent.
--LA LAKERS are 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season.
The average score was LA LAKERS 48.2, OPPONENT 46.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHARLOTTE is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) off a road loss this season.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 88.5, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 3*)
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Lakers by 10; O/U 193
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -7
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Lakers -11.76
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• BETTING SYSTEM: PLAY AGAINST - Road teams vs. the money line (CHARLOTTE) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 120 points or more.
(26-5 since 1996.) (83.9%, +21.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +102.3
The average score in these games was: Team 102.5, Opponent 92.9 (Average point differential = +9.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1, +3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1, +7 units).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites (LA LAKERS) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%).
(55-22 since 1996.) (71.4%, +30.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (71-9)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 9.6
The average score in these games was: Team 101.1, Opponent 88.6 (Average point differential = +12.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 25 (32.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-6).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-12).
