SPORTS WAGERS
PRINCETON -7½ over Harvard
These two sit #1 and #2 in the Ivy League with near identical records, thus, this one is for the top seed in the upcoming conference tournament that will begin on March 11. That said, Harvard has a ton of market appeal taking back this many points because they are 7-1 ATS in its last eight games and have won six in a row overall. Furthermore, the Crimson lost by just one point to the Tigers back in Harvard just one month ago on February 4. Adding more appeal to the Crimson is that their last three games have all been decided by double digits with them averaging more than 80 points per and holding opponents to under 66 per game. However, we’re not buying any of it because the best time to sell is when a teams’ stock is high and the stakes are even higher. Harvard can beat up on the rest of the Ivy League but Princeton is a legit threat for a deep tournament run so keep them at the front of your mind when filling out your brackets. With such a strong résumé behind them in terms of overall record and conference record, these points look delicious but we’re strongly suggesting the opposite.
The Tigers were preseason favorites not just in the Ivy League but among mid-major analysts, after returning 14 of 15 players from last season's team. They opened the season by losing four of their first six games. They've ripped off 15 wins in a row since Dec. 22, including a dozen during an undefeated Ivy season and they've done so by executing the old Princeton offense: slowing the tempo to a glacial pace, passing and cutting relentlessly, creating wide-open looks from behind the arc as well as occasional chances for back-door layups. Princeton is shooting from long range on 47 percent of its attempts, which is the 10th-highest rate in the country and tends to neutralize superior opponents' advantages in skills. The last time the Tigers were this good, they landed a 13-seed in the 2011 NCAA tournament and came within two points of beating Kentucky. In a season full of college basketball drama, it is worth placing Princeton’s performance within the wider national context. While it is well known that the Ivy League does not usually measure up to the likes of the Big 12, the Tigers’ recent success implores us to analyze the barrier between the Ivies and the remainder of the NCAA competition. We have done that and will go into further detail if Princeton makes it to Main Event but for now, we’re suggesting that Harvard in not in the same class as Princeton and that figures to be on full display here. Lastly, The Tigers are looking to lock up the top seed in the first-ever Ivy League tournament with a win here. They will be overwhelming favorites to earn the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament but beforfe that, we get them at a reduced price in this one, which prompts us to step in immediately.
WEST VIRGINIA -8 over Iowa State
West Virginia lost 71-62 to #11 Baylor in its last game. If you follow this sport closely and read the local reports, you'd think the sky was falling around the #10 ranked Mountaineers. That loss to Baylor might look bad on paper because WVU now sits fourth in the loaded Big 12 conference but it means nothing. The reality is that West Virginia is one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about. The Mountaineers' ticket to The Big Dance has already been punched based on their impressive regular season that already includes three wins over Top-25 teams. West Virginia can add a fourth “signature” win to that résumé tonight in Morgantown over #24 Iowa State, a team they defeated handily just over a month ago.
The Cyclones are one of the hottest teams in the country after winning six straight games. ISU is now ranked in the Top-25 for the first time this season but all that does is raise its profile in the market and inflate its value. Adding to their stock increase is the fact that the Cyclones have jumped into second place in the Big 12. Now the market sees a ranked team taking back eight points against a lower seeded conference opponent. That looks appealing, especially considering the Cyclones took out ranked Baylor during their recent run. That win against the Bears looks great on paper, but Iowa State was lucky to survive after losing the battle on the boards, 33-13 (!). When a team is that badly out-rebounded, they usually get whacked. Of the other teams taken down by the Cyclones during this run, only Oklahoma State finished conference play with a winning record (9-8), and ISU failed to cover that game as a 3½-point home favorite. The last time these two teams played, the Cyclones were a two-point home dog but ended up on the wrong end of a double digit loss, 85-72. It was ISU's worst defeat on its home floor in four years. Much has been written about how that defeat lit a fire under the Cyclones. “Revenge” is the story of the day when it comes to this contest, but that's just more useless noise that can influence the market. Now this overhyped Cyclones’ squad is taking a big step up in competition against a true contender that has a chance to win a Championship and that is undervalued on its home court for the first time in a very long time. That would make this the right time to step in and spot the points.
PRINCETON -7½ over Harvard
These two sit #1 and #2 in the Ivy League with near identical records, thus, this one is for the top seed in the upcoming conference tournament that will begin on March 11. That said, Harvard has a ton of market appeal taking back this many points because they are 7-1 ATS in its last eight games and have won six in a row overall. Furthermore, the Crimson lost by just one point to the Tigers back in Harvard just one month ago on February 4. Adding more appeal to the Crimson is that their last three games have all been decided by double digits with them averaging more than 80 points per and holding opponents to under 66 per game. However, we’re not buying any of it because the best time to sell is when a teams’ stock is high and the stakes are even higher. Harvard can beat up on the rest of the Ivy League but Princeton is a legit threat for a deep tournament run so keep them at the front of your mind when filling out your brackets. With such a strong résumé behind them in terms of overall record and conference record, these points look delicious but we’re strongly suggesting the opposite.
The Tigers were preseason favorites not just in the Ivy League but among mid-major analysts, after returning 14 of 15 players from last season's team. They opened the season by losing four of their first six games. They've ripped off 15 wins in a row since Dec. 22, including a dozen during an undefeated Ivy season and they've done so by executing the old Princeton offense: slowing the tempo to a glacial pace, passing and cutting relentlessly, creating wide-open looks from behind the arc as well as occasional chances for back-door layups. Princeton is shooting from long range on 47 percent of its attempts, which is the 10th-highest rate in the country and tends to neutralize superior opponents' advantages in skills. The last time the Tigers were this good, they landed a 13-seed in the 2011 NCAA tournament and came within two points of beating Kentucky. In a season full of college basketball drama, it is worth placing Princeton’s performance within the wider national context. While it is well known that the Ivy League does not usually measure up to the likes of the Big 12, the Tigers’ recent success implores us to analyze the barrier between the Ivies and the remainder of the NCAA competition. We have done that and will go into further detail if Princeton makes it to Main Event but for now, we’re suggesting that Harvard in not in the same class as Princeton and that figures to be on full display here. Lastly, The Tigers are looking to lock up the top seed in the first-ever Ivy League tournament with a win here. They will be overwhelming favorites to earn the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament but beforfe that, we get them at a reduced price in this one, which prompts us to step in immediately.
WEST VIRGINIA -8 over Iowa State
West Virginia lost 71-62 to #11 Baylor in its last game. If you follow this sport closely and read the local reports, you'd think the sky was falling around the #10 ranked Mountaineers. That loss to Baylor might look bad on paper because WVU now sits fourth in the loaded Big 12 conference but it means nothing. The reality is that West Virginia is one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about. The Mountaineers' ticket to The Big Dance has already been punched based on their impressive regular season that already includes three wins over Top-25 teams. West Virginia can add a fourth “signature” win to that résumé tonight in Morgantown over #24 Iowa State, a team they defeated handily just over a month ago.
The Cyclones are one of the hottest teams in the country after winning six straight games. ISU is now ranked in the Top-25 for the first time this season but all that does is raise its profile in the market and inflate its value. Adding to their stock increase is the fact that the Cyclones have jumped into second place in the Big 12. Now the market sees a ranked team taking back eight points against a lower seeded conference opponent. That looks appealing, especially considering the Cyclones took out ranked Baylor during their recent run. That win against the Bears looks great on paper, but Iowa State was lucky to survive after losing the battle on the boards, 33-13 (!). When a team is that badly out-rebounded, they usually get whacked. Of the other teams taken down by the Cyclones during this run, only Oklahoma State finished conference play with a winning record (9-8), and ISU failed to cover that game as a 3½-point home favorite. The last time these two teams played, the Cyclones were a two-point home dog but ended up on the wrong end of a double digit loss, 85-72. It was ISU's worst defeat on its home floor in four years. Much has been written about how that defeat lit a fire under the Cyclones. “Revenge” is the story of the day when it comes to this contest, but that's just more useless noise that can influence the market. Now this overhyped Cyclones’ squad is taking a big step up in competition against a true contender that has a chance to win a Championship and that is undervalued on its home court for the first time in a very long time. That would make this the right time to step in and spot the points.
