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Preview: Nuggets (30-42) at Lakers (15-56)

Date: March 25, 2016 10:30 PM EDT

Emmanuel Mudiay never played college basketball, but he gave Denver Nuggets fans a taste of the NCAA Tournament with his latest highlight.

The Nuggets' recent road games have left them feeling a different kind of March Madness, but they have dominated recent visits to the Los Angeles Lakers.

Denver will seek a sixth consecutive road win in the series Friday night while attempting to tighten up its defense on an opposing court.

Mudiay chose to forgo his chance to play at SMU and instead headed to China. That decision paid off for the point guard with a top-10 selection in the NBA draft and a starting job for the Nuggets.

He had one of his finest performances in his fledgling career Wednesday when he scored 27 points, capped by a 35-foot buzzer beater, in a 104-103 victory against Philadelphia. Mudiay also grabbed a career-high 11 rebounds.

"I was thinking of March Madness because anything can happen," Mudiay said.

That feeling of open possibility hasn't extended to the Nuggets' playoff chances, and their recent road struggles are largely to blame for pushing them further out of contention. Denver (30-42) has given up an average of 115.8 points on 52.1 percent shooting while dropping five of six away from home.

The Nuggets have yielded 103.8 per contest in their five consecutive road wins over the Lakers (15-56) while prevailing by an average of 11.4 points.

They won 120-109 in their only other visit this season Nov. 3 and for the 11th time in 13 overall matchups March 2. D.J. Augustin had a season-high 26 points and Mudiay scored 22 in that 117-107 victory, which gave Denver a 2-1 edge in the 2015-16 series.

The Lakers enter this season's final matchup having lost five of six, and a 119-107 defeat in Phoenix on Wednesday put them one step closer to their storied franchise's worst finish. They won 19 games in 1957-58 while in Minneapolis and had a .256 winning percentage last season by going 21-61.

Los Angeles had 13 assists - one shy of matching a season low - against the Suns after registering at least 20 in three consecutive games. The Lakers had 21 in a 107-100 victory over Memphis on Tuesday that snapped a four-game home losing streak.

"We've all been 'the guy' our entire lives. Eventually, we've got to realize that everybody's got to sacrifice something," forward Julius Randle told the Lakers' official website after registering team highs of 19 points and 15 rebounds. "Really figure out how everybody plays around each other, what works best for each other and learn how to play with each other instead of us all try to do it ourselves."

Kobe Bryant is set to play his last of 83 games against the Nuggets, a total that includes 17 in three postseason series victories, but he has been dealing with a sore right shoulder. His 31.9 scoring average in those playoff matchups was his highest against any Western Conference opponent.

Bryant has averaged 24.8 points in 65 regular-season games against the Nuggets and had 31 in a 111-107 road victory Dec. 22. Shoulder issues limited him to 10-plus minutes and five points in the loss earlier this month.

The Nuggets might not have Kenneth Faried, who had 28 points and 15 rebounds in the road win over the Lakers in November. He's missed the past four games due to an ailing back.
 
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Preview: Mavericks (35-36) at Warriors (64-7)

Date: March 25, 2016 10:30 PM EDT

Though still not the highest priority, Steve Kerr won't deny his Golden State Warriors players the opportunity to chase history.

The defending NBA champions look to move another step closer to achieving the league's single-season victories record when they put their unprecedented home winning streak on the line Friday night against the fading Dallas Mavericks.

Having spent much of his team's brilliant season side-stepping questions pertaining to the Warriors' flirtation with the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls' benchmark of 72 regular-season wins, Kerr - a member of that legendary Bulls team - finally acknowledged his willingness to see his players reach the milestone.

'That's pretty enticing," Kerr said of the record prior to Wednesday's game against the Los Angeles Clippers. "It's the players who are setting the record. It's not the organization, so they will absolutely have some say in matters down the stretch in terms of how we approach everything.'

Golden State (64-7) needs to go 9-2 to eclipse the mark and has the remaining schedule working in its favor. The Warriors play eight more times at Oracle Arena, where they extended their own NBA standard with a 51st consecutive regular-season win in Wednesday's 114-98 victory.

The first order of business remains securing the West's top seed. With San Antonio still four games off the pace and two games remaining versus the Spurs, Kerr plans to keep going at full throttle until that objective is reached.

'I've maintained all along we're trying to get the 1 seed. That's a really important deal for us. We're not there yet,' he said. 'Could a couple of our guys use a little mental rest and take a night off? Probably,' Kerr said. 'But I wouldn't do that at the expense of losing games and possibly losing the 1 seed.'

Golden State figures to have a good chance of moving nearer to both goals with Dallas (35-36) having lost eight of 10 and without third-leading scorer Chandler Parsons, sidelined by a potential season-ending meniscus tear in his right knee.

The swoon continued in Wednesday's opener of a four-game trip, where the Mavericks committed 17 turnovers that led to 22 Portland points in a 109-103 loss that trimmed their dwindling lead over Houston and Utah for seventh in the West to one-half game.

'We didn't shoot particularly well,' guard Wesley Matthews said. "But 17 turnovers, and how we turned it over, was fueling their break. They're a tough team when you give them possessions like that.'

Dallas is allowing 110.4 points per game since Feb. 5 and has permitted 101 or more 17 times over that 19-game stretch. Golden State, the league's highest scoring team, is 63-2 when scoring 100 or more.

The Mavericks did deal the Warriors a 114-91 defeat on Dec. 30, though Stephen Curry didn't play due to a lower leg injury. They haven't stopped Klay Thompson in the two other matchups, with the All-Star guard recording 45 points in a 127-107 home win on Jan. 27 and 39 in last Friday's 130-112 road victory.

Curry had 33 against the Clippers after going 3 of 21 from 3-point range in his previous two games. Thompson added 32 and is shooting 59.7 percent from 3 while averaging 24.4 points over his last nine.

Dallas' best hopes rest on a continued hot streak from Dirk Nowitzki, who scored a season-high 40 in Sunday's 132-120 win over Portland and is averaging 26.1 over a nine-game stretch.

Matthews is 11 of 17 on 3s over the last two games but was held to six points on 2-of-9 shooting in last week's loss to Golden State.
 
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Friday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Hornets at Pistons – 7:35 PM EST

The best division race down the stretch is in the Southeast as the Hawks, Heat, and Hornets are separated by less than one game heading in Friday’s action. Charlotte (41-30 SU, 37-33-1 ATS) has won the first two meetings with Detroit this season, beating the Pistons by double-digits each time at Time Warner Cable Arena. In the previous matchup two weeks ago, Charlotte dominated Detroit, 118-103 as four-point favorites, while seven Hornets scored in double-figures, led by 22 points from Marvin Williams.

Charlotte is continuing a four-game road trip after holding off Brooklyn on Tuesday, 105-100 as six-point favorites. Steve Clifford’s team has won eight of its past 10 games on the highway, while finishing ‘under’ the total in five of the last six contests overall. Eight of the final 11 games for the Hornets come away from Charlotte, while seven of those games are against teams currently outside the playoff race.

Detroit (38-34 SU, 36-34-2 ATS) is starting to distance themselves from Chicago and Washington for the eighth playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons have won four straight games, beating four non-playoff teams at home over the last week (Sacramento, Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Orlando), while the loss on their current homestand came to Southeast-leading Atlanta. Since late February, Stan Van Gundy’s club has won seven of their last eight games at the Palace of Auburn Hills, while covering five times.

Raptors at Rockets – 8:05 PM EST

Houston (35-37 SU, 31-41 ATS) is going the wrong way at the worst possible time, losing three straight games to fall below the .500 mark and outside the Western Conference playoff picture. The Rockets squandered an 18-point lead in Wednesday’s 89-87 home setback to the Jazz, while finishing ‘under’ the total for the third straight game. Houston scored just 38 points in the second half against Utah, while getting outrebounded for the first time in the last five games.

Toronto (48-22 SU, 38-32 ATS) saw its four-game winning streak come to an end in Wednesday’s 91-79 setback at Boston as 3 ½-point underdogs. The Raptors couldn’t pull off the season sweep of the Celtics as point guard Kyle Lowry sat out to rest an injured right elbow, as Toronto cashed the ‘under’ for the fifth consecutive contest. The absence of Lowry obviously hurt Toronto’s offense, who scored below 100 points for the first time in 13 games.

The Rockets rallied past the Raptors in their previous matchup at the Air Canada Center earlier this month, 113-107. Houston cashed as eight-point underdogs, while erasing a 10-point halftime deficit thanks to a 40-point effort by James Harden. The Raptors haven’t had much luck at the Toyota Center, losing eight consecutive meetings in Houston dating back to 2007.

Grizzlies at Spurs – 8:35 PM EST

In spite of numerous injuries to key personnel over the last two months, Memphis (41-31 SU, 38-33-1 ATS) is hanging on to second place in the Southwest division. The Grizzlies are still without point guard Mike Conley and center Marc Gasol, but forward Zach Randolph has averaged 19.3 points per game in his last three games since returning to the lineup from a knee injury. Memphis suffered a brutal loss on Tuesday at Staples Center, falling to the Lakers, 107-100 as three-point favorites to end a modest two-game winning streak.

The Spurs (60-11 SU, 42-29 ATS) continue to roll at home by improving to 36-0 at the AT&T Center after routing the Heat on Wednesday, 112-88 as 10 ½-point favorites. San Antonio owns a 23-13 ATS record at home, while allowing 88 points or less in four of its past five home contests. In spite of the cover on Wednesday, Gregg Popovich’s team hasn’t picked up back-to-back ATS wins since early March, while compiling a 4-7 ATS record in the past 11 games. San Antonio will be without dynamic forward Kawhi Leonard, who left the victory against the Heat with a quad injury.

San Antonio cruised past Memphis in each of the first two matchups this season, limiting the Grizzlies to 82 and 83 points in the two victories. In the first meeting at the AT&T Center in November, the Spurs held on for a 92-82 triumph as eight-point favorites, while owning an 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS record in the past 10 games against Memphis since 2013.

Mavericks at Warriors – 10:35 PM EST

There has never been a team to finish undefeated at home in the NBA regular season, but two clubs can accomplish that goal this season. San Antonio has won all 36 home games, while Golden State (64-7 SU, 40-29-2 ATS) isn’t far behind with a 33-0 record at Oracle Arena as the defending last lost a regular season home contest on January 27, 2015 in overtime to Chicago. The most recent home win for the Warriors came on Wednesday against the Clippers, pulling off the four-game season sweep in a 114-98 triumph to cash as 10 ½-point favorites.

Dallas (35-36 SU, 38-32-1 ATS) continues its four-game road trip after falling at Portland on Wednesday, 109-103, but the Mavs covered as 6 ½-point underdogs. In spite of the loss, Rick Carlisle’s team owns a solid 4-1 ATS record in the last five games (all as a ‘dog), while covering three straight games away from the American Airlines Center. Dallas has allowed at least 100 points in 17 of the last 19 contests, but the Mavs are 3-0 to the ‘under’ in their past three road games.

These teams are hooking up for the second time in a week after the Warriors chased the Mavericks in Dallas, 130-112 last Friday night as nine-point road favorites. Golden State dropped 42 points in the opening quarter, while Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined to knock down 16 three-pointers. The Mavericks are one of seven teams to hand the Warriors a loss this season, beating Golden State (without Curry) in late December, 114-91. Dallas has lost six straight visits to Oracle Arena, as each of the past four defeats in Oakland have come by 14 points or more.
 
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NBA Odds: Friday, March 25, 2016 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

I remember briefly when Michael Kidd-Gilchrist came back from his shoulder injury surprisingly early and the Hornets were playing well. I wrote that Charlotte might be a solid longer-shot bet to win the Eastern Conference. I jumped off that bandwagon when MKG, a great defender, went down for the season with an injury to that same shoulder. Perhaps I was a bit too hasty. The Hornets have changed their offensive style to a more up-tempo team and are using big man Al Jefferson off the bench. Jeremy Lin has become a very good player again. And Charlotte has the East's best record since the All-Star break at 14-4. The Hornets could finish as high as third in the East or as low as sixth. Clearly getting home court as long as possible is crucial for this club as it's 27-11 at home but just 14-19 on the road. Not ready to pick Charlotte to unseat Cleveland, but it wouldn't shock me if the Hornets reached the conference finals if they are in the opposite side of the bracket. And then you never know what could happen in one series with injuries, etc.


Timberwolves at Wizards (-7.5, 218.5)

Minnesota ended a two-game losing streak with a 113-104 win over Sacramento on Wednesday. Karl-Anthony Towns had 26 points, 11 rebounds and four blocks, taking advantage of fellow former Kentucky star DeMarcus Cousins' absence. Zach LaVine and Andrew Wiggins each added 23 points. Washington's five-game winning streak ended in the back end of a home-and-home with the Hawks on Wednesday, 122-101 in D.C. John Wall had just 13 points on 6-for-17 shooting. The Wiz were attempting to get over .500 for the first time since late November. Minnesota beat visiting Washington 104-98 on March 2. The home team has won 10 of the past 12 meetings.

Key trends: The Wolves are 1-9 against the spread in their past 10 in Washington. The "over/under" has gone under in seven of the past 10 meetings.

Early lean: Wizards and under.

Hornets at Pistons (TBA)

Lone national TV game, on NBA TV, opposite the NCAA Tournament. Charlotte nearly fell into a trap on Tuesday in Brooklyn after beating San Antonio on Monday night, but the Hornets held on for a 105-100 win over the Nets. Nic Batum had 23 points and Lin 21. Marvin Williams sat out with a sprained left ankle but thinks he will play here. Detroit won a fourth straight Wednesday, 118-102 over Orlando. Andre Drummond had 30 points and 14 rebounds, and the Pistons never trailed. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope missed the game with an illness. Probably back here. Charlotte is 2-0 vs. Detroit this season, winning each by at least 15 points. But those were both at home.

Key trends: The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four. The over has hit in 11 of the past 15 meetings.

Early lean: Like Pistons whether KCP and/or Williams plays or not.

Magic at Heat (-7, 210.5)

Orlando dropped a fifth in a row Wednesday, 118-102 in Detroit. Elfrid Payton had 20 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists. The Magic were again without Nik Vucevic, and it doesn't seem likely he plays here. Miami was clobbered on Wednesday in the second of a back-to-back, losing 112-88 in San Antonio. Luol Deng sat out for the Heat with a sore left quad but plans on playing here. Miami won the first meeting 108-101 in Orlando on Dec. 26 and has taken 12 of the past 13 overall against their Sunshine State neighbors.

Key trends: The Heat have covered seven of the past 11 meetings. The under is 7-3 in the past 10 in Miami.

Early lean: Heat and under.

Bucks at Hawks (-8.5, 206.5)

Milwaukee lost a third straight Wednesday, 113-104 in Cleveland. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 24 points with six rebounds and six helpers. Atlanta avoided that home-and-home sweep to Washington on Wednesday -- as I said it would -- with a 122-101 road win. Reserve guard Dennis Schroder wasn't a lock to even play after tweaking his ankle on Monday but did and had 23 points. The Hawks attempted a season-high 42 3-pointers and made 17 of them, also a season best. Perhaps expect overtime here as the Bucks are 2-0 vs. the Hawks this season, one in OT at home and one in double OT in Atlanta.

Key trends: The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their past five in Atlanta. The under is 6-2 in the Hawks' past eight at home overall.

Early lean: Hawks and under.

Raptors at Rockets (TBA)

Toronto's four-game winning streak ended in a 91-79 loss in Boston on Wednesday. Not shocked that happened since All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry surprisingly sat with a sore right elbow. Patrick Patterson missed a second straight game with a sore ankle. The Raptors had won 33 straight games when holding a team under 100 points. Houston lost a third in a row Wednesday, 89-87 at home to Utah. The Rockets led by as many as 18 in the second half. James Harden had 26 points, 10 assists, seven rebounds and a career-high eight steals. He was the first Rocket with at least 20/7/7/7 since Hall of Famer Clyde Drexler 20 years ago. Toronto lost 113-107 at home to Houston on March 6 to end a franchise-record 12-game home winning streak. The Raptors have dropped eight straight in Houston.

Key trends: Toronto has covered only two of its past eight in Houston. The over is 16-5 in Houston's past 21 after a loss.

Early lean: Wait on Lowry.

Grizzlies at Spurs (TBA)

Memphis lost 107-100 at the Lakers on Tuesday to end a two-game winning streak. Tony Allen had the offensive game of his life considering he's a terrible shooter (but great defender), going 12-for-12 for 27 points in the loss. It was his final matchup against Kobe Bryant, who called Allen the toughest defender he ever faced. Allen was the first player on a losing team to go at least 12-for-12 since December 1978. San Antonio bounced back from Monday's loss in Charlotte with a 24-point blowout of Miami on Wednesday to stay unbeaten at home. Kawhi Leonard tied his career high with 32 points but left in the third quarter with a bruised right quad, so I somewhat doubt you see him here. San Antonio leads the season series vs. Memphis 2-0, both very low scoring.

Key trends: The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings at home. The under is 11-4 in San Antonio's past 15 overall.

Early lean: Spurs don't need Leonard to win this game easily. Go way under any total.

Suns at Kings (TBA)

Phoenix won for the third time in five games Wednesday, 119-107 over the Lakers. Devin Booker led Phoenix with 28 points as he was jacked up to play Kobe Bryant for the first time in his career. Kobe had missed the previous three meetings with the Suns this season. He gave Booker some autographed shoes after the game. Suns center Tyson Chandler was out with back spasms. Sacramento lost 113-104 in Minnesota on Wednesday without DeMarcus Cousins due to a bruised right knee. Rajon Rondo had 25 points, 12 assists and eight rebounds playing through his own injury. The teams have split two meetings, with Sacramento scoring a series record 142 points in the last meeting on Jan. 2 at home.

Key trends: The Kings are 0-7 ATS in their past seven at home. The over has hit in nine of the past 12 meetings.

Early lean: Wait on Cousins.

Mavericks at Warriors (-15, 226.5)

Dallas lost 109-103 in Portland on Wednesday. Salah Mejri, making his fourth start of the season, added 14 points and 12 rebounds. The Mavs were again without the injured Chandler Parsons, who won't play here. Golden State completed the season sweep of the Clippers with a 114-98 win on Wednesday, the Warriors' 51st straight home victory. Steph Curry had 33 points and Klay Thompson 32. Andrew Bogut returned from a minor injury and played 20 minutes. For the first time since Dec. 28, the Warriors did not have a lead after the first quarter at home. That's amazing. Golden State is 2-1 vs. Dallas this season, averaging 128.5 points in those wins. The Warriors have won six straight at home vs. the Mavs.

Key trends: The Mavs are 0-4 ATS in their past four at Golden State. The over is 7-1-1 in the Warriors' past nine at home vs. teams with a losing road record.

Early lean: Warriors and over.

Nuggets at Lakers (+3, 214.5)

Denver beat Philadelphia 104-103 on Wednesday on a 35-foot off-balance buzzer-beater from rookie Emmanuel Mudiay. Total luck. He had 27 points and 11 rebounds. Kenneth Faried missed a fourth consecutive game because of a back injury. The Lakers lost by 12 in Phoenix on Wednesday in Kobe Bryant's final game there. He had 17 points. Bryant's 2,330 career points against the Suns are No. 2 all-time behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. I'm thinking Kobe might sit here since he has played back-to-back games. Denver leads the season series 2-1 and has won five straight in Los Angeles.

Key trends: The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their past five in L.A. The over is 13-3-1 in the past 17 meetings.

Early lean: Lakers (if Kobe goes) and over.
 
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NBA

Friday's hot teams
-- Wizards won five of their last six games (5-3 last 8HF).
-- Charlotte won eight of its last ten games (5-3 last 8AU). Detroit won its last four games (15-5-1 last 21HF).
-- Hawks won six of their last seven games (4-2 ast 6HF).
-- Raptors won seven of their last nine games (9-5AU).
-- Miami won three of its last four games (2-5 last 7HF).
-- Spurs won seven of their last eight games (3-1 last 4HF).
-- Golden State won nine of its last ten games (6-2 last 8HF).

Cold teams
-- Minnesota lost four of its last six games (3-1 last 4AU).
-- Bucks lost four of their last five games (5-1 last 6AU).
-- Houston lost four of its last five games (3-5 last 8HF).
-- Orlando lost its last five games (2-4 last 6AU).
-- Memphis lost five of its last seven games (3-2 last 5AU).
-- Sacramento lost eight of its last ten games (2-4 last 6HF). Suns lost five of their last eight games (4-2 last 6AU).
-- Denver lost four of its last six games (2-5 last 7AU). Lakers lost five of their last six games (3-3HF).
-- Dallas lost eight of its last ten games (3-0 last 3AU).

Series records
-- Minnesota lost last three visits to Washington by 14-4-13 points.
-- Hornets won four of their last five games with Detroit.
-- Hawks are 7-3 in last 10 games with Milwaukee, but lost last two.
-- Home side won nine of last ten Toronto-Houston games.
-- Magic lost nine of last ten games with Miami.
-- Spurs won last three games with Memphis by 20-10-14 points.
-- Kings won three of last four games with Phoenix.
-- Lakers lost four of last five games with Denver.
-- Warriors won nine of last 10 (8-2 vs spread) games vs Dallas.

Totals
-- Under is 4-1 in Washington's last five home games.
-- Five of last six Charlotte games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Milwaukee games stayed under total.
-- Last five Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Last eight Miami games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Memphis games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Sacramento games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Denver games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Golden State games stayed under total.

Back/backs
-- None
 
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Previews, Streaks, Tips, Notes

Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets March 25, 8:00 EST

Houston scrambling to sneak into postseason, Toronto with their spot wrapped up and Casey not above resting players the Rockets are the choice in this one. The fact this contest is in Houston is yet another nod towards Rockets, since the team has compiled an impressive 8-0 (5-2-1 ATS) streak and 13-2 (9-5-1 ATS) stretch hosting the Raptors.
 
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Sweet 16 Primer
By Brian Edwards

Sweet 16 Brackets

Six ACC teams and all four No. 1 seeds are still alive in the 2016 NCAA Tournament that saw its field reduced to 16 during Sunday’s thrilling set of games.

Notre Dame is one of the ACC schools that still has a pulse thanks to a 76-75 win over Stephen F. Austin in a helluva Round of 32 slugfest at Barclays Arena in Brooklyn. The Lumberjacks covered the spread as 1.5-point underdogs, while the 151 combined points zipped ‘over’ the 139.5-point total.

Rex Pflueger’s amazing tip-in of a Zach Auguste miss with 1.5 seconds remaining lifted the Fighting Irish to a second straight Sweet 16 appearance. The bucket was Pflueger’s only one of the game, an epic affair that never saw more than a seven-point separation that the Fighting Irish enjoyed midway through the second half.

Demetrius Jackson and Auguste were the catalysts for Mike Brey’s team. Jackson finished with 18 points on 6-of-8 shooting from the field. He drained 2-of-3 attempts from downtown, including a trey with less than one second remaining in the first half to send the Irish to the locker room with a one-point cushion. Jackson’s 3-ball allowed Notre Dame to either push (-1) or cover (pick ‘em, -120 or -125 price) for its backers on first-half bets.

Auguste finished with 16 points and 15 rebounds, making 8-of-9 shots from the field. V.J. Beachem scored 15 points and seven rebounds.

Notre Dame, a No. 6 seed, will face seventh-seeded Wisconsin on Friday at 7:25 p.m. Eastern in Philadelphia. One book had the Irish favored by 1.5 points early this morning.

Stephen F. Austin had won 21 in a row after bouncing third-seeded West Va. from the Tournament as a seven-point underdog Friday night. Senior Thomas Walkup saw his collegiate career end in gut-wrenching fashion, but he went out on his sword. He played terrific in his final game, producing 21 points, five rebounds and five assists without committing a turnover.

Wisconsin advanced by edging Xavier on Bronson Koenig’s buzzer beater from the corner while fading out of bounds. The Badgers trailed by nine with 6:19 remaining, but a trey by Koenig knotted the score at 63-63 with 11.7 seconds left. After Zak Showalter drew a charge with 4.7 seconds left, UW inbounded to halfcourt before calling its last timeout to set up a play that led to Koenig’s game winner.

Wisconsin is in the region semifinals for the fifth time in six years. The Badgers are here despite starting the season with a 9-9 record and despite losing legendary head coach Bo Ryan to retirement before Christmas.

The late game in Philly will pit No. 1 seed North Carolina against fifth-seeded Indiana. The Tar Heels have been installed as six-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 160.

IU bounced Kentucky from the Tournament on Saturday night in Des Moines. Meanwhile, North Carolina overcame a four-point halftime deficit to pull away and even cover as a double-digit favorite vs. Providence.

Jay Wright has his Villanova (31-5 SU, 17-17-1 ATS) program back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009 after it destroyed Iowa 87-68 in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. The Wildcats easily hooked up their backers as six-point favorites.

Senior guard Ryan Arcidiacono led the way with 16 points and four assists without a turnover. Josh Hart scored a team-high 19 points, while Kris Jenkins finished with 15 points, two steals and six assists without a turnover.

Villanova will take on Miami on Thursday night in Louisville, Ky. The Westgate opened Villanova as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 142.5 points. The Hurricanes, who beat Wichita St. as two-point underdogs Saturday, are +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

The other South Region semifinal matchup features No. 1 seed Kansas against fifth-seeded Maryland. One book had the Jayhawks installed as seven-point favorites early this morning.

KU took the cash in Saturday’s 73-61 win over UConn as an eight-point favorite. Meanwhile, the Terrapins put away a pesky Hawaii squad with a 14-0 run midway through the second half of a 73-60 win in Spokane, WA. They covered the number as 7.5-point favorites, while the 133 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 144-point tally.

Melo Trimble paced the winners with 24 points, eight rebounds and three assists. Diamond Stone and Rasheed Sulaimon finished with 14 points apiece.

The SEC still has life – somehow. Northern Iowa blew a 12-point lead with 35 seconds remaining in a collapse of unfathomable proportions. Texas A&M took advantage and won a 92-88 decision in double overtime.

Forty-eight hours after beating Texas on a buzzer beater off the glass from halfcourt by senior Paul Jesperson, the Panthers committed four turnovers in 33 seconds and allowed the Aggies to make six straight shots to end regulation. Nevertheless, NIU still took the money as a seven-point underdog.

Alex Caruso led the winners with 25 points, nine rebounds and three assists. Danuel House finished with 22 points and eight boards. NIU’s Jeremy Morgan was sensational in heartbreaking defeat, producing 36 points, 12 boards, three steals, two assists and a pair of blocked shots.

Billy Kennedy’s squad will take on Oklahoma in Anaheim on Thursday night in the West Region semifinals. One betting shop had the Sooners favored by two early this morning.

OU slipped past VCU by an 85-81 count in what equated to a home game on Oklahoma City. The Rams trailed by 13 at halftime, but they stormed back and into the lead with 9:55 remaining thanks to back-to-back 3-pointers from Michael Gilmore.

Buddy Hield’s 3-ball with 6:37 left gave the Sooners the lead back for good, though. The senior All-American erupted for 29 of his game-high 36 points in the second half. VCU’s Melvin Johnson and JeQuan Lewis scored 23 and 22 points, respectively.

Form held in the West Region, leaving us with a semifinal showdown between No. 1 seed Oregon and fourth-seeded Duke. The Blue Devils nearly blew a 27-point second-half lead Saturday against Yale. The Bulldogs trimmed the deficit to three, but Duke pulled away in the final minute for a 71-64 triumph as a six-point favorite.

Oregon beat St. Joseph’s 69-64 thanks to an 11-4 run in the final two minutes, but the Hawks covered the spread as seven-point underdogs. Dillon Brooks led the way with a game-high 25 points.

In the Midwest Region, a double-digit seed with play in the Elite Eight at United Center in Chicago this weekend. That’s because No. 10 seed Syracuse and No. 11 seed Gonzaga will collide in one semifinal matchup.

Both schools were on the bubble two weeks ago. Jim Boeheim’s team advanced by smashing Middle Tennessee 75-50 Sunday as a six-point ‘chalk.’ Gonzaga drilled third-seeded Utah 82-59 on Saturday night, two days after dropping Seton Hall by a 68-52 score.

As of early this morning, most books had Gonzaga favored by 4.5 points with a total of 135.

Virginia and Iowa State will face each other in Friday’s early game from the Windy City. The Cavaliers are favored by 5.5 with a total of 141 points.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Bettors backing Northern Iowa on the money line for a +250 return obviously sustained all-timer of a bad beat. However, those on the Panthers plus seven might’ve taken the worst beat (EVER!) if not for inept free-throw shooting from Texas A&M in the second extra session.

-- St. Joseph’s finished its season with an incredible 10-1-1 spread record in 12 games as an underdog. The Hawks won nine of those games outright, but they were unable to do so against the Ducks.

-- Texas A&M is in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2007.

-- Florida advanced to the NIT quarterfinals by winning 74-66 at Ohio St. as a 1.5-point favorite Sunday afternoon in Columbus. The Gators will play on the road Wednesday against the winner of Monday’s winner of George Washington at Monmouth. Dorian Finney-Smith had 16 points and 12 rebounds against the Buckeyes. Kasey Hill had 15 points, five assists, three rebounds and two steals.

-- The collegiate careers of Charles Mann and Kenny Gaines came to an end Sunday night in Georgia’s 77-65 loss at Saint Mary’s as a seven-point underdog. UGA did cover second half bets (pick ‘em) after trailing by 13 at intermission. Yante Maten made 14-of-17 field goals in the Bulldogs’ opening-round home win over Belmont. But against the Gaels, he couldn’t throw it in the ocean, missing 16 of his 22 shots from the field. Mann and Gaines finished with 13 and 11 points, respectively. I offer both a hat tip to excellent careers in which they helped me to many winners along with J.J. Frazier, who is a junior and will return for Mark Fox’s program next season. Frazier had 13 points, seven assists and five boards against the Gaels, but he was only 5-of-15 from the field.
 
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Regional Trends
By Marc Lawrence

If you are a player or a coach, there is nothing sweeter this time of the year than being alive in the NCAA Tournament. For those teams that survived the opening two rounds of this main event it’s on to the Sweet 16 and, hopefully, the Elite 8 this weekend.

Here are essential notes and trends of the teams that have arrived. Stay tuned. Note: all stats are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

NCAA SWEET 16 ROUND NOTES

-- #1 Seeds off BB SUATS wins are 19-8 ATS (Kansas)
-- #2 Seed favs of > 4 pts are 2-6-1 ATS (Villanova)
-- #3 Seed dogs of > 4 pts are 6-1 ATS (Miami, Florida)
-- #4 Seed dogs < 6 pts are 6-1 ATS (Duke, Iowa State)
-- #5 Seeds off a DD SU win are 0-4 ATS (Maryland)
-- #6 Seeds off a SU favorite win are 5-0 ATS (Notre Dame)
-- #7 Seed dogs of 3 < pts are 1-3 ATS (Wisconsin)
-- #10 or worse seed dogs of > 4 pts are 6-1 ATS (Syracuse)
-- Favorites off a SU win of 20 > pts are 0-4 ATS (Gonzaga)

Best Team ATS records in this round
Wisconsin 3-0
Oregon 2-0
Virginia 2-0
Oklahoma 4-1
Duke 3-1

Worst Team ATS records in this round
Miami-FL 0-2
Syracuse 1-6
Gonzaga 1-3
Indiana 1-3
Kansas 4-10

Best Conference ATS records in this round
SEC: 7-1-1
Big East: 5-1 as dogs

Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big 12: 0-6
MVC: 0-4
West Coast: 1-3
Pac 12: 2-6


NCAA ELITE 8 ROUND NOTES

-- #1 Seed favs > 7 pts are 1-9 ATS
-- #2 Seeds are 3-10-1 ATS off a DD ATS win
-- #3 Seeds are 2-9 ATS
-- #4 Seeds are 11-3 ATS
-- #5 Seeds are 7-0 ATS
-- #6 Seeds are 2-5 ATS
-- #7 Seeds are 3-1-1 ATS
-- #8 Seeds are 5-1 ATS
-- Teams that score 67 < pts are 17-49 SU & 17-46-3 ATS
-- Teams that score 85 > pts are 29-7 SU & 26-8-2 ATS
-- Teams off 3+ ATS wins are 7-1-1 ATS
-- Teams with Revenge are 16-6-1 ATS
-- Dogs off 3 straight DD wins are 2-7-1 ATS

Best Conference ATS records in this round
Big East: 6-1 as dogs 4 < pts
Big 10: 5-1 as dogs
SEC: 5-1 as favs 7 > pts
Pac 12: 4-1 as dogs

Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big 12: 0-11, ACC: 0-4 as favs > 7 pts
Pac 12: 1-5 as favs 2 > pts
Big East: 1-4 as favs 4 < pts
SEC: 2-5 as favs < 7 pts

COACH ME IF YOU CAN

-- Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski is 20-5 SU from the Elite 8 Round out since 1991, including 15-2 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points
 
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Essential betting stats and trends for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8
By MARC LAWRENCE

If you are a player, a coach, or a fan, there is nothing sweeter this time of the year than being alive in the NCAA Tournament. For those teams that survived the opening two rounds of the "Big Dance," it’s on to the Sweet 16 and hopefully, the Elite 8 this weekend.

So before placing your wagers for the next two rounds, Marc Lawrence digs up all the essential betting notes and trends of the teams that have arrived.

*Note: all stats are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Round notes

• No. 1 Seeds coming off back-to-back SU/ATS wins are 19-8 ATS. Kansas fits the bill this year.
• No. 2 Seed favorites of 4-points or greater, are 2-6-1 ATS. So be cautious Villanova backers.
• No. 3 Seed dogs of 4-points or greater, are 6-1 ATS. That is the situation for Miami.
• No. 4 Seed dogs of 6-points or less, are 6-1 ATS. Both Duke and Iowa State are in that spot.
• No. 5 Seeds off a double-digit SU win, are 0-4 ATS. Maryland hopes to break that trend.
• No. 6 Seeds off a SU win as favorites, are 5-0 ATS. Notre Dame hopes that holds true.
• No. 7 Seed dogs of 3-pts or less, are 1-3 ATS. Wisconsin is in that spot this year.
• No. 10 or worse seed dogs of 4-points or greater, are 6-1 ATS. Syracuse is looking at that situation.
• Favorites off a SU win of 20 or more points are 0-4 ATS. Gonzaga is coming off a 23-point win over Utah.

Best Team ATS records in the Sweet 16:

Wisconsin 3-0, Oregon, Virginia 2-0, Oklahoma 4-1, Duke 3-1.

Worst Team ATS records in the Sweet 16:

Miami-Fl 0-2, Syracuse 1-6, Gonzaga and Indiana 1-3, Kansas 4-10.

Best Conference ATS records in the Sweet 16:

SEC: 7-1-1, Big East: 5-1 as dogs

Worst Conference ATS records in this round:

Big 12: 0-6, MVC: 0-4, West Coast: 1-3, Pac-12: 2-6

NCAA Tournament ELITE 8 Round notes

• No. 1 Seed favorites of greater than 7-points are 1-9 ATS.
• No. 2 Seeds are 3-10-1 ATS coming off a double-digit ATS win.
• No. 3 Seeds are 2-9 ATS.
• No. 4 Seeds are 11-3 ATS.
• No. 5 Seeds are 7-0 ATS.
• No. 6 Seeds are 2-5 ATS.
• No. 7 Seeds are 3-1-1 ATS.
• No. 8 Seeds are 5-1 ATS.
• Teams that score 67 points or less are 17-49 SU and 17-46-3 ATS.
• Teams that score 85 points or more are 29-7 SU and 26-8-2 ATS.
• Teams coming off three or more ATS wins are 7-1-1 ATS.
• Teams in Revenge spots are 16-6-1 ATS.
• Dogs coming off three straight double-digit wins are 2-7-1 ATS.

Best Conference ATS records in this round:

Big East: 6-1 as dogs of 4-points or less, Big 10: 5-1 as dogs, SEC: 5-1 as favorites of 7 or more points, Pac 12: 4-1 as dogs.

Worst Conference ATS records in this round:

Big 12: 0-11, ACC: 0-4 as favorites of greater than 7-points, Pac 12: 1-5 as favorites of greater than 2-points, Big East: 1-4 as favorites of less than 4-points, SEC: 2-5 as favs less than 7-points.

Coach me if you can

• Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski is 20-5 SU from the Elite 8 Round out since 1991, including 15-2 ATS when not favored by 7 or more points.
 
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Sweet 16 has been dominated by the dogs, especially these profitable pups
By JASON LOGAN

Sweet 16 favorites were a tasty treat for basketball bettors last March when NCAA tournament teams giving the points in the regional semifinals finished with a 6-2 record against the spread (7-1 ATS).

That proposition has typically been a sour wager for those laying the points, with Sweet 16 underdogs posting a 21-9-1 ATS record (12-19 SU with one game closing as a pick’em) the four years prior (2011-2014) - covering the spread 70 percent of the time in that span.


That has Big Dance bettors wondering how loud the underdogs will bark in Thursday and Friday’s Sweet 16 matchups. Perhaps the one thing that should most concern those looking to wager on the eight NCAA games is the size of the dog in those contests.

Looking back to 2007, Sweet 16 underdogs between +3 and +6.5 are a collective 18-11-1 ATS (13-17 SU), covering the spread 62 percent of the time in that nine-season stretch. And shortening the sample to those four tournaments mentioned above – 2011 to 2014 – those same-sized pups (+3 to +6.5) posted an 11-4 ATS count, for a 73 percent cover rate.

Taking a glance at the 2016 tournament schedule, six of the eight regional semifinals fall under that pointspread category – save for Oklahoma (-2.5) vs. Texas A&M, and Notre Dame (-1) vs. Wisconsin. Miami is getting four points from Villanova, Maryland is a 6.5-point underdog to Kansas, Duke moved from +1.5 to +3 versus Oregon, Iowa State is getting five points from Virginia, Syracuse is at +4.5 facing Gonzaga, and Indiana is a 5.5-point pup against North Carolina.

As for the Aggies and Badgers currently sitting as slim betting pups, it’s not as cut and dry as dogs between +3 and +6.5. Underdogs between +1 and +1.5 are just 3-5 SU and ATS in the Sweet 16 since 2007 while dogs between +2 and +2.5 boast a breakeven 4-4-1 ATS record, going 3-6 SU in that span.

So far, NCAA tournament betting underdogs have finished 12-36 SU and 22-25-1 ATS heading into the Sweet 16, covering at just a 47 percent clip. Those NCAA teams getting between +3 and +6.5 are a split 8-8 ATS (7-9 SU).
 
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UNC, Indiana renew rivalry
By Bruce Marshall

After first and second rounds of the Big Dance that suggested all sorts of wild matchup possibilities for the Sweet 16 and beyond, order seems to have been restored-albeit narrowly. The spry upset winners from the first round, and many of the potential rich storylines for the tournament, all would go down to defeat (some in more heartbreaking fashion than others) in the second round. The lowest seeds remaining in the Dance are all college hoops brand names (7 seed Wisconsin in the East, 10th and 11th seeds Syracuse and Gonzaga in the South). Surprisingly, there are a record six Atlantic Coast Conference teams still alive, which makes the Sweet 16 almost look like a continuation of the recent ACC Tourney at Washington, D.C.'s Verizon Center. Meanwhile, the Big East, Pac-12, and SEC barely maintain a pulse with one entry each.

Yet, we are always apt to reminisce, especially when it comes to this time of the basketball season. Vivid memories of past NCAA Tourneys help us recall each year, and past hoops seasons, more precisely. Especially since the Big Dance often provides us with matchups that are reminders of years gone by. And if it seems as if we keep landing on Indiana for a lot of these trips down memory lane, it's because the Hoosiers have often been at the eye of the March hurricane, with memorable games, players, and one particular coach often as the centerpiece for some unforgettable hoops.

Sweet 16-bound Indiana is back on the big stage again this week in another all-hoops blue blood battle against North Carolina. The Hoosiers and Tar Heels have tangled several times over the years, though a couple of their most memorable battles occurred in the Big Dance during the early 1980s. Moreover, the Philadelphia site for this week's East Regional recalls not only the venue for the Indiana Final Four win in 1976, but also the 1981 Final Four held at the old Spectrum, its site now a parking lot between the Phillies' Citizens Bank Park, the Eagles' Lincoln Financial Field, and the current Wells Fargo Center, which will host the hoops action this weekend.

Big Dance action in Philly, however, will always recall 1981 and the title game between Bob Knight's Indiana and Dean Smith's North Carolina.<

Of course, many historians remember that final game for an altogether different reason, played as it was on the evening of an assassination attempt on President Reagan earlier that day in Washington. The nation was unnerved, memories of JFK and Dallas in 1963 still fresh in many minds. The president's condition turned out to be more serious than was reported that afternoon and evening in a jumble of conflicting stories out of the D.C. news grid. Late in the afternoon, having determined that the president's condition probably wasn't life-threatening (which turned out to be an erroneous assumption), the decision was made in Philadelphia to go ahead with the Hoosiers-Tar Heels title game, to be televised by NBC. (The Academy Awards, scheduled to air on ABC on the same night, decided to postpone their event 24 hours until Tuesday.) So, there was a bit of surreal feeling surrounding the contest, with normal pre-game talk pre-empted, as was the halftime show, as NBC would be quick to switch back to Washington for news updates. Analyst Al McGuire, working alongside Dick Enberg in what would be NBC's last Final Four before CBS acquired the package in 1982, famously said on the air that he really didn't want to be watching or talking about a basketball game that night, setting the somber mood for the evening.

The 1981 Final Four, which also included LSU (IU's semifinal victim) and Ralph Sampson's Virginia (which lost to UNC in an all-ACC semifinal), had already been noteworthy for action earlier in the weekend, and not all of it on the court. Not surprisingly, the controversial Knight was involved in the middle of the storm, this time for a confrontation with an LSU fan, reportedly intoxicated and confrontational with Knight at a Cherry Hill, NJ hotel. The fan ended up deposited in a wastebasket by The General, one of the many bits of Knight folklore that are probably better addressed in one of the countless books chronicling the life and times of the former Indiana coach.

The title game vs. the Tar Heels was the culmination of a great stretch run by that Knight team, which finished with an unremarkable 26-9 SU record, but one that The General himself still believes might, by the end of the season, at least, have been the equal to his undefeated 1975-76 squad. In the outstanding biography Knight, authored by the legendary Bob Hammel, The General offered that opinion to which he and he alone could be considered the ultimate arbiter.

"Don't ever downgrade that (1980-81) team because of its record," The General would say in Knight. "By championship night in Philadelphia, that team had become one of the few in college basketball history that could have stepped onto the court with our 1975 and 1976 teams and competed very well.

"There'd have been a good matchup in the backcourt: Isiah Thomas and Randy Wittman against Quinn Buckner and Bobby Wilkerson. And Ray Tolbert and Landon Turner would have been a good counter to Scott May and Kent Benson. The fifth starter and the bench-no big edge either way. One team lost nine games, the other none. I have to wonder always what I did wrong in 1980-81. The answer quite possibly may be that the '76 team had a much greater focus throughout, and getting that is part of the coach's job."

In that 1980-81 season, the Hoosiers had played North Carolina in December and lost, 65-56, a game in which Isiah Thomas had played so poorly that he was benched by Knight. By the time the Final Four rolled along, however, Indiana was, to borrow the late, great race caller Chic Anderson's description of Secretariat in the 1973 Belmont, moving like a tremendous machine. Indiana "plays five guards--one point and four pulling," one coach had said jokingly earlier in the tournament, a reference to the quicksilver Isiah Thomas and his bludgeoning teammates.

But Isiah Thomas was a different sort of weapon for Knight. In preseason, Knight had retooled his offense and defense to take better advantage of Isiah's unique talents. Thomas did certain things so well and was so much a better player at that stage than the other Hoosiers, save Randy Wittman and Ray Tolbert, that Knight felt it would be wise to install some subtle changes in his intricate motion offense.

"Isiah is our most obvious asset," said Knight early in that 1980-81 season. ""But to capitalize fully on his skills, we have to use him in a different way than we did last season. When we were recruiting Isiah, we told him he wouldn't have the freedom here that he'd have somewhere else. Now that's not true. Within our framework, he'll have more freedom than he would elsewhere. But it's not a freedom to throw the ball away or take bad shots."

With the previous year's stalwart, Mike Woodson, having moved to the NBA, Thomas was asked to do more shooting and scoring. To help him get more shots and points and take greater advantage of his quickness, ball handling and passing, Indiana tried to fast-break more often. And to ensure a maximum number of fast-break opportunities, Knight wanted the Hoosiers to do more trapping than usual on defense in an attempt to create turnovers.

There was another Thomas, Jimmy, on that IU team who would play a valued role, especially on defense. Trailing the Heels by a 16-8 count early in the finale, Knight had inserted Jimmy into the lineup along with Isiah to form an all-Thomas backcourt, with Wittman moving to a wing. Jim Thomas, a defensive stopper, immediately began to fluster one of Carolina's gunners, Al Wood. Meanwhile, Knight's adjustments moved the big, mobile Turner on to Carolina's Sam Perkins, who had scored seven points in the early going.

With the matchups now in order, Knight's team started to crawl back from the early eight-point deficit. Wittman began to shred the Heel zone from the perimeter, his four bombs providing the spark for the Hoosiers to seize the lead by a 27-26 count at the half.

The IU momentum would carry into the second half. Jim Thomas and Turner held the productive Wood and Perkins to a combined five baskets and five rebounds. Meanwhile, explosive Carolina soph F James Worthy was blanked by Ray Tolbert. The second half also witnessed the reawakening of Isiah Thomas, who seemed to be pressing too much in the first half, when he made just 1 of 7 shots. Early in the second half, however, it was a different Isiah, as he stole a pass near midcourt and went in for the layup. Although Perkins got the basket back with an alley-oop drop-in, Isiah was just getting started, feeding Turner for a bucket to put the Hoosiers up 31-28. Next Isiah picked off another pass, this one intended for Perkins down low, and raced in to give Indiana a 33-28 lead. "The way they jumped on us there broke our backs," UNC's Wood admitted later. Two more Isiah baskets and it was 39-30. Isiah from the circle and Wittman, who finished with 16 points, off the glass made it 45-34 at the 12:31 mark. Carolina was on the ropes. Meanwhile, at the other end of the floor, the Tar Heels were faring about as well vs. Knight's defense as the drunken LSU fan a couple of nights earlier against The General in Cherry Hill.

The Hoosiers were breaking down the Heels psychologically and physically in the purest Knight fashion. Even when Carolina's Wood, who finished with 18 points, brought his team back to within seven with eight minutes remaining, all the Hoosiers did was spread out against the Heels' half-court traps and get the ball into Isiah's fast and sure hands. The lead was more than safe as it expanded until the final horn, a thumping 63-50 win and Knight's second national title.

As for The General's comparisons with his first national title winner five years earlier, it should be noted that the 1976 national champ Hoosiers, regarded as the terror of the age, beat their five tournament opponents by a total of 66 points, while Knight's 1981 winners beat their five foes by 113 points, including a dangerous Maryland, swamped 99-64 in the second round at Dayton.

"(There would end up a forever bittersweet taste about the 1980-81 Hoosiers when key F Landon Turner would suffer paralyzing injuries in an auto accident that summer. Turner's basketball star was on the rise and could have turned him into a dominant force on the hardwood. Though, after the accident, Turner would battle admirably and continue to lead a productive life.)

The 1981 title game wasn't the only memorable Indiana-Carolina battle in the decade. Three years later, with Michael Jordan having arrived at Chapel Hill and having helped lead the Heels to the national title in his freshman season of 1981-82, Carolina was at the top of the polls entering the 1984 Dance in Jordan's junior season that would be his last in Carolina blue before he moved to the NBA. The East Regionals were considered a mere stepping stone to the national title for the Heels, who were expected to beat underdog Indiana without much trouble in the Sweet 16 at The Omni in Atlanta.

Instead, it would turn into one of the finest hours of Knight's career. And it would involve an unlikely hero-Dan Dakich, who had started just five times that season but would be handed the unenviable task of tracking the undefendable Jordan in the Sweet 16. (That's the same Dan Dakich who would eventually coach at Bowling Green and would succeed Kelvin Sampson on an interim basis at IU, and is now one of the prominent college hoop analysts for ESPN.)

In Knight, The General recounted his thinking prior to facing Jordan, and his gamble of starting the little-used Dakich.

"There were only two things I thought we could do with Jordan: take away the backcut and keep him off the backboard," said Knight. "Dakich was about 6-foot-5, not very quick but a tough kid. I thought he was the best we had to do both of those things.

"We knew Dakich wasn't going to be able to overplay Michael and keep him from getting the ball. So we underplayed him-backed him off and pretty much gave him the jump shot, which wasn't nearly the weapon then that it became for him. He (Jordan) did two things that just killed you-he was great going to the bucket without the ball, and he was a very, very good offensive rebounder. But not that night.

"We told Dakich in the hotel the night before the game that he was going to guard Jordan. He told the press later his reaction was, 'I went back to my room and threw up.'"

Knight's strategic gamble was that he would try to contain the two Carolina stars, Perkins and Jordan, and let the rest of the Tar Heels beat him from the outside if they could. "They jammed Perkins and Jordan and were willing to pay the price for that," said Heel HC Dean Smith. "We could've taken all the 15-footers we wanted, but they would've been from the people they chose to allow to shoot." Dakich, with no meaningful vertical leap, was instead instructed by Knight to lay off Jordan, thereby cutting off any direct path to the basket. The tactic so confounded Jordan that he became indecisive about when to shoot, and he eventually fouled out after only 26 minutes of playing time. Further, Carolina had to play catch-up nearly the whole game. "One thing that hurt us was that (after the first few minutes) they never had to play from behind," said Perkins. "There was no need for them to play scared."

Tactics or not, the upset never really figured, because that was not a vintage Knight team in 1984. The Hoosiers started a couple of frosh and a sophomore. One of the frosh, however, was G Steve Alford. And while Knight's tactics worked splendidly, Smith did not push the same correct buttons from the Carolina sideline.

"North Carolina did the one thing in that game that they couldn't do: they tried to trap us," said The General in Knight. "Rarely did they trap us successfully in the games that we played against them. Even when they beat us in the 1979-80 and 1980-81 seasons, if they trapped us ten times, we scored nine.

"But in that 1984 game, it wasn't like those two games-we didn't have Isiah Thomas and Randy Wittman, and I think North Carolina underestimated what the kids we did have could do in terms of handling the ball. And we had some breaks. Late in the game Marty Simmons got trapped, the ball was jarred loose, it bounced on the floor three times, and we got a layup."

The Hoosiers built their lead mainly on Alford's nine points midway through the second half, and an Alford layup with 5:36 to play put the Hoosiers up by 12, the largest Tar Heel deficit of the season. Yet Carolina would rally, and by the end IU was hanging on for dear life before Alford broke a 10-0 Heels run and made 6 of 6 free throws in one-and-one situations after Indiana had failed on the front end of four consecutive bonus tries. The Hoosiers didn't even take a shot from the field in the final 5 ½ minutes, but Alford made one big play after another en route to scoring 27 points. As for Jordan, he would end with only 13 points in what would be the last game of his college career, and Knight would have his monster upset, 72-68, shocking the college hoops world.

That was the last hurrah for those 1984 Hoosiers, however, as they would cough up a late lead and get pipped by post-Ralph Sampson Virginia, 50-48, two days later in the East finale, sending the Cavs instead of the Hoosiers to the '84 Final Four, held in Seattle. But that Indiana upset over North Carolina in '84 still resonates in Bloomington, Chapel Hill, and elsewhere in the minds of college hoops aficionados who all know where they were when Dan Dakich became a household name in the sport.

We can only hope they'll be remembering this Friday's Hoosiers-Tar Heels clash 32 years hence as we do that 1984 classic upset!

SWEET SIXTEEN & ELITE EIGHT ON DECK!

After underdogs fared extremely well in Sweet 16 action during the Big Dances of 2013 and 2014, covering six of eight chances each season, the tables completely reversed a year ago, with favorites prevailing in six of eight in 2015.

Elite Eight underdogs, which had covered 5 of 8 chances over the 2013-14 span, split four chances with the favorites last season, though the dogs still stand 40-28 in this round since '98.

Conference-wise, the stickout performer is the Big 10 in the Elite Eight, standing 16-7 vs. the line since '98, including 2-0 last season (wins and covers by Wisconsin and Michigan State).

Following are Against the Spread breakdowns in Sweet 16 and Elite Eight action since 1998, with 2015 Sweet 16, and 2013-15 Elite Eight performance noted as well.

Sweet Sixteen Favorites
ATS Category 1998-2015 2013-2015
1-3 points 21-20 2-1
3 ½ - 6 ½ points 21-27 2-0
7 - 9 ½ points 17-13 1-0
10 or more 7-12 1-1
Total 66-72 6-2


Sweet 16 ATS Records
Conference 1998-2015 2013-2015
American 1-1 1-1
ACC 19-19-1 3-2
Atlantic Sun 1-0 1-0
Atlantic-10 12-9-2 1-1
Big East 17-26 0-1
Big Ten 22-21 2-0
Big 12 1 17-17 0-2
CAA 2-0 1-0
C-USA 5-3 0-0
Horizon 3-2 1-0
MAC 2-1 1-0
Mid-Continent 1-0 0-0
MVC 2-5 0-1
Mountain West 1-3 1-0
Pac-12 13-20 1-2
SEC 20-12 1-0
SoCon 1-0 0-0
Sun Belt 1-0 0-0
WAC 2-1 0-0
West Coast 3-4 1-0


Elite Eight Favorites
ATS Category 1998-2015 2013-2015
1-3 points 10-16 3-2
3 ½ - 6 ½ points 13-14 2-3
7 - 9 ½ points 4-6 0-0
10 or more 1-4 0-2
Overall 28-40 5-7


Elite Eight ATS Records
Conference 1998-2015 2013-2015
American 1-0 1-0
ACC 10-10 2-2
Atlantic-10 4-2 1-0
Big East 11-11 2-1
Big Ten 16-7 4-3
Big 12 5-16 0-0
CAA 2-0 0-0
C-USA 2-3 0-0
Horizon 2-0 0-0
Pac-12 7-8 0-2
SEC 10-8 1-3
SoCon 1-0 0-0
WAC 1-1 0-0
West Coast 1-1 0-1
 
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Sweet 16 Stats & Angles
By ASA


Thursday, Mar. 24

No. 3 Miami, Fl. vs. No. 2 Villanova (CBS, 7:10 p.m. ET)

-- Villanova had the highest combined margin of victory of any team in the field in the first 2 rounds at +49 points (vs Iowa & UNC Asheville)

-- Nova had 8 players average double digit minutes in first 2 rounds with nobody topping 31 minutes in either game

-- Miami is 129-89 ATS as an underdog since 1997

-- 22% of Miami’s points this year have come from the FT line which is the highest percentage remaining the in field – the Canes shoot 75% from the line

No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Oklahoma (TBS, 7:37 p.m. ET)

-- Oklahoma relies on the 3-pointer more than any other team remaining with 38.6% of their points this year coming from deep

-- Texas A&M starts 4 seniors however NOBODY on their team had ever played in an NCAA tourney game before this season

-- The Sooners have the 2nd highest 3-point % in College BB this season at 42.5%

-- Oklahoma has played in 6 NCAA tournament games the last 3 seasons covering the spread just once

-- OU coach Lon Kruger has coached in 5 Sweet 16’s. This will be A&M coach Billy Kennedy’s first.

No. 5 Maryland vs. No. 1 Kansas (CBS, 9:40 p.m. ET)

-- Over the last 12 games, Maryland guard Melo Trimble has made only 32% of his shots and just 26% from beyond the arc

-- Kansas is 21-10 ATS as a favorite this season

-- The Jayhawks have won 24 of their last 28 games (straight up) when facing a team with a winning record

-- KU coach Bill Self has an NCAA tourney record of 39-16 (70%). Maryland coach Mark Turgeon is just 8-6 lifetime in the Big Dance

No. 4 Duke vs. No. 1 Oregon (TBS, 9:57 p.m. ET)

-- Duke turns the ball over less than any team remaining at just 14% - 5th nationally

-- The Ducks have 7 players averaging 21+ minutes this season

-- Duke’s coach Krzyzewski is an amazing 90-26 (77%) in the NCAA tournament which is the most wins for any coach AND the highest win percentage for those who have coached at least 10 games in the Big Dance

-- Oregon’s Dana Altman is 8-11 (42%) in NCAA tournament games

-- The Total has gone UNDER every time Duke has been tabbed an underdog this year (6 UNDERS, 0 OVERS)

Friday, Mar. 25

No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 1 Virginia (CBS, 7:10 p.m. ET)

-- Iowa State is the top team remaining in offensive efficiency ranking 2nd nationally

-- Iowa State is DEAD LAST (351st) in the country at getting to the stripe with only 13.8% of their points coming from the FT line

-- However, the Cyclones are 2nd nationally on the flip side of that as only 14% of their opponents points come from the FT line

-- Iowa State is the worst offensive rebounding team remaining – 269th nationally. The rebound just 26% of their own misses

-- Virginia is top team remaining in defensive efficiency ranking 4th nationally

-- Virginia scores only 25% of their points from beyond the arc which is the lowest percentage remaining

No. 7 Wisconsin vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (TBS, 7:37 p.m. ET)

-- Notre Dame & Wisconsin are two of the worst teams nationally at defending the 3 ranking 302nd and 313th respectively

-- The Badgers have won 11 of their last 13 NCAA tournament games

-- The Irish were 7-7 this season vs teams that made the NCAA tournament – that includes their 2-0 mark so far

-- Wisconsin was 11-6 this season vs teams that made the Big Dance – that also includes their 2-0 mark thus far

-- These two teams play among the slowest tempos in college hoops – Notre Dame’s adjusted tempo is 321st and Wisconsin’s is 345th

No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 1 North Carolina (TBS, 9:57 p.m. ET)

-- Indiana uses their bench more than any other team remaining – 51st nationally in bench minutes

-- Indiana turns the ball over more than any team remaining at nearly 20% - 273rd nationally

-- UNC is the top offensive rebounding team left in the tourney – 4th nationally. The Heels rebound 40% of their own misses

-- The Hoosiers are the best shooting team in the nation with an eFG% of 59% - they are in the top 5 nationally in both 3 point FG% and 2 point FG%

-- UNC coach Roy Williams has an NCAA tourney record of 67-23 (74%) which ranks him 4th all time (winning % wise)

No. 11 Gonzaga vs. No. 10 Syracuse (CBS, 9:40 p.m. ET)

-- Syracuse uses their bench less than any other team remaining – 350th nationally in bench minutes

-- Gonzaga comes into the Sweet 16 as the lowest remaining seed (11 seed). Since 1979, just three 11 seeds
have gone onto make the Final 4

-- The Zags are 8th nationally at defending the 3 allowing just 30% from beyond the arc

-- Syracuse is the first 10 seed to reach the Sweet 16 since Steph Curry’s Davidson team back in 2008. Since expanding to 64 teams in 1985, no 10 seed has ever made the Final 4

-- The Orange are the only team remaining that plays almost exclusively zone defense
 
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Most Outstanding Player Props

The NCAA Tournament continues Thursday with 16 schools squaring off in Regional action.

Along with betting on sides and totals, Sportsbooks have posted a prop wager on which player will win the Most Outstanding Player of the NCAA Tournament.

The MOP is often considered the Most Valuable Player of the tournament and usually goes to a player on the school that wins the championship.

The last player to capture the award and not be on the championship team was Houston’s Hakeem Olajuwon in 1983 when the Cougars were upset 54-52 to North Carolina State in the final on a buzzer beater.

This year’s field is wide open but the majority of the top betting choices reside on either No. 1 or No. 2 seeds, with Kansas and North Carolina both receiving extra attention.

Outlier bets would include Duke’s Grayson Allen (20/1) and Brandon Ingram (25/1), plus point guard Melo Trimble (25/1) from Maryland is getting some notice.


Odds to win 2016 NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player

Brice Johnson (North Carolina) 11/2
Buddy Hield (Oklahoma) 6/1
Perry Ellis (Kansas) 13/2
Malcolm Brogdon (Virginia) 7/1
Marcus Paige (North Carolina) 12/1
Josh Hart (Villanova) 15/1
Wayne Selden Jr (Kansas) 15/1
Dillon Brooks (Oregon) 18/1
Frank Mason III (Kansas) 20/1
Grayson Allen (Duke) 20/1
Brandon Ingram (Duke) 25/1
Melo Trimble (Maryland) 25/1
Georges Niang (Iowa St) 30/1
Joel Berry II (North Carolina) 30/1
Yogi Ferrell (Indiana) 30/1
Kyle Wiltjer (Gonzaga) 35/1
Elgin Cook (Oregon) 40/1
Zach Auguste (Notre Dame) 40/1
Domantas Sabonis (Gonzaga) 45/1
Jalen Jones (Texas A&M) 45/1
Sheldon McClellan (Miami FL) 45/1
Anthony Gill (Virginia) 50/1
Danuel House (Texas A&M) 50/1
Isaiah Cousins (Oklahoma) 50/1
Michael Gbinije (Syracuse) 50/1
Nigel Hayes (Wisconsin) 50/1
Ryan Arcidiacono (Villanova) 50/1

Odds Subject to Change
 
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Sweet 16 - Friday Early Tips
By Tony Mejia

Midwest Region – Chicago, IL – United Center

#1 Virginia (-5, 141) vs. #4 Iowa State – 7:10 PM ET, CBS

There is a drastic contrast in styles here, so expect a tug of war for control of the tempo. Iowa State was forced to replace Fred Hoiberg with Steve Prohm when he left for the Bulls, but have still averaged 82.1 points per game, ranking tops in the Big 12 in scoring. For the fourth straight season, the Cyclones are currently among the top 15 teams in the country in that department. The Cavaliers play the slowest pace in D-I and rank second in the nation in points allowed, the fifth straight year they’ve been in the top-five in that department under Tony Bennett. For Virginia to play its ideal game, it must stay out of foul trouble and limit Georges Niang’s impact.

Niang, a talented senior forward was named a Second-Team All-American by the USBWA and has been the centerpiece for the Cyclones in recent years, often serving as point forward, bullying his way into the paint with his ability to put the ball on the floor at 6-8, while possessing a nice touch from the perimeter as well. Virginia has dealt with talented, versatile players throughout the ACC, so seeing how the team attacks Niang defensively will be this game’s top attraction. Iowa State has plenty of others who can hurt you, starting with junior point guard Monte Morris, whose 6.9 assists to 1.6 turnovers again ranks among the best ratios in the country, which means wings Matt Thomas, Abdel Nader and sixth man Deonte Burton often get open looks. Thomas is a 43 percent shooter. Burton has a 46 percent clip off the bench.

Virginia’s leader is First Team All-American Malcolm Brogdon, a physically strong shooting guard who can defend just about anyone and will likely see some time on Niang. He averages a team-best 18.6 points, ranks second in assists and shoots 89 percent from the 3-point line and 40 percent from 3-point range. Backcourt mate London Perrantes, a stifling defender and heady floor general, shoots nearly 48 percent from beyond the arc. Anthony Gill is the primary post threat and will have to do his part against Niang. He's averaged 13.6 points and 6.2 rebounds, but the play alongside him and behind him from Mike Tobey, Isaiah Wilkins and Evan Nolte has been spotty. They do have a size edge on Cyclones enforcer Jameel McKay.

Expect the 3-ball to play a huge role here, since Virginia’s presence is almost certain to ensure fewer possessions than the Cyclones are typically used to unless they’re able to get out early and dictate, forcing catch-up mode. The Cavaliers have only played three games that have gone ‘over’ the posted total since Jan. 30, a span of 15 contests. Virginia is 11-2 SU in games that have surpassed the posted total, but are just 6-7 ATS. Conversely, Iowa State is 7-1 in games where 141 points or fewer have been scored, covering the number in six of those. UVA rolled over Hampton 81-45 and held off Butler 77-69 to advance to this spot, going 1-1 ATS. Iowa State has covered in both of its wins, beating Iona 94-81 and Little Rock 78-61 to reach the Sweet 16.

East Region – Philadelphia, PA – Wells Fargo Center

#6 Notre Dame (-1, 131.5) vs. #7 Wisconsin – 7:25 PM ET, TBS

Two Midwest-based teams that entered these NCAAs as wild cards will battle for a spot in the Elite Eight, looking to make it back-to-back memorable seasons. While most remember Bo Ryan-led Wisconsin defeating Kentucky and making it to last April’s Championship game, it’s not as easy to recall that the Fighting Irish nearly took down the undefeated ‘Cats in the Elite Eight. Although they graduated current Knicks guard Jerian Grant and Trail Blazers wing Pat Connaughton, the team that won the ACC Tournament a year ago returned a lot of talent. In that sense, they were better off than the Badgers, who lost first-round picks Frank Kaminsky (Hornets) and Sam Dekker (Rockets) in addition to other key role players. That both teams find themselves in this situation after seasons where they’ve suffered double-digit seasons ties them together in terms of resiliency and an ability to rise up when it matters most.

Notre Dame held off Michigan in the first round and survived 76-75 against Stephen F. Austin on a tip-in by little-used reserve freshman forward Rex Pflueger, coming back from a five-point deficit inside the game’s final 1:35. Wisconsin got a buzzer-beater from guard Bronson Koenig, who eliminated second-seeded Xavier 66-63 with perhaps the shot of the tournament, a buzzer-beater out of the corner he knew was good the moment he left his hands. The Badgers survived Pittsburgh 47-43 in the first round and are 2-0 in these NCAAs as an underdog, which means they likely don’t mind being in that role here.

Veterans Nigel Hayes, Koenig, Zak Showalter and Vitto Brown, all supporting players during last year's run to the Final Four, have combined with freshman Ethan Happ to keep the Badgers in this mix despite being the most inexperienced Badgers team Ryan brought into a season since taking over in '01. After ups and downs, he stepped down midseason to give assistant Greg Gard an opportunity to keep the job, which he has nicely managed to accomplish. Meanwhile, this is the first time the Fighting Irish have reached the Sweet 16 in consecutive seasons, so head coach Mike Brey has no doubt he has a special group. Point guard Demetrius Jackson is the top current pro prospect in this matchup, but he's got plenty of talent around him, starting with senior forward Zach Auguste, one of a handful of guys in the country averaging a double-double (14.3 ppg, 10.9 rpg). Juniors V.J. Beachem and Steve Vasturia are joined by sophomre Bonzie Colson as others averaging double-figures in scoring for Notre Dame.

Although the Irish have a reputation as a higher-scoring team and the Badgers are often chastised for their plodding style, the teams were only separated by one possession on average this season, ranking among the last 20 teams in the country in pace. The 'under' has prevailed in 10 of Wisconsin's last 11 games, but also in seven of Notre Dame's last 10.
 
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Sweet 16 - Friday Late Tips
By Kevin Rogers

Midwest Region – Chicago – United Center
#11 Gonzaga (-4, 135) vs. #10 Syracuse – 9:40 PM EST – CBS

The two lowest seeds remaining in the NCAA tournament hook up in the Windy City as both of these stellar programs look to advance to the Elite Eight. Gonzaga (28-7 SU, 17-15-1 ATS) finished as the regular season co-champions in the West Coast Conference along with St. Mary’s, but Mark Few’s team wrapped up its 18th consecutive NCAA tournament berth by winning the WCC tournament.

The Bulldogs cruised to a pair of victories in the first two rounds of the Big Dance against Seton Hall and Utah. In the opening round win over the Big East tournament champions, Gonzaga cruised to a 68-52 triumph as two-point favorites. Forward Domantas Sabonis (son of Blazers’ legend Arvydas) led the Bulldogs with a 20-point, 16-rebound performance, while Gonzaga limited Seton Hall to 32% shooting from the floor to win their tournament opener for the eighth straight season.

Gonzaga proved that the Seton Hall blowout was no fluke as the Bulldogs crushed Utah in the second round, 82-59 as 1 ½-point favorites. The ‘Zags jumped out to a 15-point halftime lead and never looked back as Gonzaga shot a scorching 56% from the floor. Gonzaga extended its winning streak to seven, while covering each time during this hot streak.

Syracuse (21-13 SU, 18-15 ATS) overcame a late season three-game losing streak, which included a one-and-done exit in the ACC tournament against Pittsburgh. The Orange pulled away in the second half of a 70-51 rout of Dayton in the opening round, outscoring the Flyers in the second half, 40-23, in spite of shooting 40% from the floor. Jim Boeheim’s squad outrebounded Dayton, 45-27, including a game-high 18 boards pulled down by Tyler Roberson.

In the round of 32, Syracuse avoided second-seed Michigan State after the Spartans were upset by Middle Tennessee State. The Orange took advantage of facing the 15th-seed Blue Raiders by ripping the Conference USA tournament champions, 75-50 to easily cash as six-point favorites. Syracuse used another big second half to advance to the Sweet 16, outscoring MTSU, 44-23, while shooting 55% from the floor.

Handicapper Joe Nelson believes that this game will be decided defending the triple, “One thing Gonzaga does have in the backcourt is size and the effective field goal rate vs. the Bulldogs is among the best in the nation, with very strong numbers against the 3-point shooting for opposing teams. Given that Syracuse is reliant on the 3-point shot more than any other remaining team in the tournament other than Oklahoma that may prove to be a key factor as over 37 percent of the scoring from the Orange comes from beyond the arc. The biggest issue in facing Syracuse is mastering the 2-3 zone defense and the length that the Orange possesses.”

Since winning the national championship in 2003, Syracuse owns a 2-3 record in its last five Sweet 16 appearances. In 2013, the Orange crushed Indiana in the regional semifinals, 61-50 as five-point underdogs. Gonzaga is playing in its third Sweet 16 since 2009, as the Bulldogs rolled past UCLA last March in this round, 74-62 as 8 ½-point favorites.

East Region – Philadelphia – Wells Fargo Centerr
#5 Indiana vs. #1 North Carolina (-5 ½, 158 ½) – 9:55 PM EST – TBS

Two legendary programs that played for the 1981 National Championship at the Spectrum in Philadelphia meet in the Sweet 16 round 35 years later in the City of Brotherly Love. One season after getting knocked out in the regional semifinals, North Carolina (30-6 SU, 17-18-1 ATS) looks to reach its seventh Elite 8 under Roy Williams. Meanwhile, Indiana (27-7 SU, 19-15 ATS) hasn’t qualified for the Elite 8 since reaching the National Championship game in 2002.

The Tar Heels cruised to an ACC regular season title at 14-4, while grabbing the ACC tournament championship, including victories over Sweet 16 participants Notre Dame and Virginia. UNC picked up a pair of double-digit wins in each of its first two NCAA tournament victories over Florida Gulf Coast and Providence to extend their winning streak to seven since late February. In the round of 32 victory over Providence, the Tar Heels outscored the Friars in the second half by 15 points to capture an 85-66 win as 11-point favorites.

The Hoosiers won the regular season championship in the loaded Big 10, but dropped their opening game of the conference tournament in the final seconds to Michigan. Indiana regrouped in the NCAA tournament by crushing public underdog Chattanooga in the first round, 99-74 to cash as 11-point favorites. Yogi Ferrell led IU with 20 points and 10 assists, while the Hoosiers torched the Moccasins by shooting 65% from the floor. Tom Crean’s club broke away late from Kentucky in the second round, 73-67 as 3 ½-point underdogs to improve to 5-1 SU/ATS in the last six games and advance to the Sweet 16.

Nelson breaks down some of the key factors for this matchup, “Indiana finished the season with some of the best shooting numbers in the nation and this is a team with many options including four regulars that shoot over 41 percent from 3-point range. Turnovers have been the big weakness for Indiana as incredibly the conference champions had the worst turnover rate in the Big Ten. Creating turnovers is not a strong suit of the North Carolina defense and in that regard, this matchup should be reasonable for the Hoosiers despite the great talent and top seeding of the Tar Heels.”

The long distance game will be important for each team, according to Nelson. “North Carolina was actually the worst 3-point shooting team in the ACC, but this is a team that continues to take a fair amount of 3-point shots, attempting 35 in the first two rounds and making just 31 percent, exactly the team’s season average. Against Kentucky, Thomas Bryant was Indiana’s key player scoring 19 and converting all six 2-point field goal attempts while also getting to the line several times. Bryant will have a much tougher matchup in this game and the success of the Hoosiers is more likely to hinge on the outside shooters with North Carolina’s 3-point defense also being an area of weakness,” Nelson says.

North Carolina sits at 4/1 odds to grab the National Championship, while listed at 5/7 odds (Bet $1.40 to win $1.00) to advance to the Final Four. Indiana is the second-favorite to come out the East region at 3/1 odds, while sitting at 20/1 to win the program’s first title since 1987.
 
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NCAA Tournament

Friday's games

Since 1997, North Carolina is 9-1 in Sweet 16; they lost to Wisconsin in this round LY. Tar Heels are 2-0 vs Big 14 this year, beating N'western by 11, Maryland by 8. UNC scored 84 ppg LW in easy wins; they've won seven in a row overall. Indiana won 22 of last 26 games; they're 1-2 vs ACC teams, losing to Wake/Duke in fall, then beat Notre Dame by 7 in December. Hoosiers shoot 41.6% on the arc (#5); Carolina foes are shooting 35.4% (#223 defense). ACC teams are 8-11 vs Big 14 teams this season, 5-6 vs spread when favored. Last 10+ years, #1 seeds are 18-19 vs spread in regional semifinal round. Battle of senior point guards should be extremely interesting.

Wisconsin allowed 53 ppg in winning twice LW; Badgers won at Syracuse, beat Pitt by 4 in only two ACC games. Notre Dame won four of last five games, sneaking by SF Austin Sunday. Irish subs play 9th-least minutes in country; PG Jackson was on bench for 2:00 LW. ND is 3-1 vs Big 14 this year, losing to Indiana, winning by 7-6-5 points vs Michigan-Illinois-Iowa. Expect a slow tempo; Notre Dame plays tempo #321, Wisconsin #345. Badgers are 13-3 in last 16 games after a 9-9 start; they don't have a senior in rotation. ACC teams are 8-11 vs Big 14 teams this season, 3-3 vs spread when a dog. This is first regional semi with 6-7 seeds playing since 2005.

Virginia won seven of last eight games, with only loss to UNC; Cavs beat West Va in only Big X game. UVa plays slowest tempo in nation. Iowa State plays #56 tempo, is #4 expereince team, but Cyclones' bench plays 5th-least minutes in country. Last 10 years, #1 seeds are 18-19 vs spread in regional semifinal round. ACC teams are 2-3 vs Big X teams this year, 1-3 vs spread when favored. Iowa State scored 172 points on 141 possessions LW; this game will be mich slower than 70 possessions. Cyclones beat Va Tech by 22 in only ACC game- they've got #5 eFG% in country, shooting 56.6% inside arc (#4), 38.6% outside arc (#22). .

Gonzaga is 7-0 since losing on Senior Night to St Mary's; they've got two quality big men, shoot ball well (#12 eFG%) and allowed only 55.5 ppg LW in beating seeds #6-3 in their region (Seton Hall/Utah). Zags are 4-5 vs top 50 teams this year. Syracuse got two wins last week after going 1-5 in previous six games; Orange avoided Michigan St in second round, which always helps. Syracuse is one of 20 worst teams in country on defensive boards, but otherwise defend well- their bench plays 2nd-least minutes in country. WCC won both its games vs ACC teams this season. This game is only third 10-11 seed game ever; dogs won first two.


Other Tournaments

We'll do what we can with these minor tournaments; impossible to determine how interested players on these teams will be........

NIT
None

CBI
None

CIT
None
 
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'Sweet-Sixteen'

Two schools with contrasting styles go at it in the Midwest Region with 4th-seed Iowa State (23-11, 17-13-1 ATS) attemting to upend #1-seed Virginia Cavaliers (28-7, 18-14-1 ATS).

The Cyclones no slouches on offense lead by Georges Niang (20.2) along with five other players in double digits have netted 82.1 per/game on the season, 86.0 PPG in two NCAA Tournament games hitting 52.9% of their shots, 48.8% from outside. On the other side, the Cavaliers great at protecting their own basket have allowed a stingy 59.5 points/game on the year, 57.0 PPG in the first two rounds holding opponents to 38.2% from the field, 29.4% from long range.

When handicapping this contest, a few betting numbers to ponder. The #4 seed facing a #1 seed in the Sweet-Sixteen and getting 6.0 or less points are good bets. In the last ten such instances the #4 is 7-3 against the betting line. However, Iowa State has not been a peg to hang your hat recently in an underdog roll, Cyclones have lost six consecutive games taking points (3-3 ATS). On the other side, Virginia finds itself in a sweet betting spot. The Cavaliers has been money in the bank recently laying -5.5 or less points posting a sparkling 8-1 record against the betting line.
 
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CBB Betting: March Madness: Sweet-Sixteen

The ACC has owned the NCAA Tournament thus far. The league has compiled an impressive 12-1 (7-5-1 ATS) record over the first weekend with the lone blemish being Pittsburgh which fell to Wisconsin.

With that, the ACC sends six teams to the Sweet Sixteen. Thursday it's Miami (#3) facing Villavona (#2) and Duke (#4) goes up against Oregon (#1). Then on Friday, North Carolina (#1) takes ont Indiana (#5), then Notre Dame (#6) gets Wisconsin (#7), Syracuse (#10) matches up with Gonzaga (#11) and Virginia (#1) battles Iowa State (#4).

The following are some betting nuggets for the ACC teams along with Seed pairings which hopefully helps when making your selections.

#1 Virginia (28-7, 18-14-1 ATS) vs #4 Iowa State (23-11, 17-13-1 ATS)

-Virginia 5-5 ATS L10 in Tourney, 3-1 ATS as #1 Seed
-Iowa State 8-4 ATS L12 Dancing, 0-1 ATS in S16

- #1 vs #4 in this round 8-11 ATS, 1-3 ATS as chalk of 3.5 or less, 2-4 ATS faves of 4 to 6.5

#1 North Carolina (30-6, 17-18-1 ATS) vs #5 Indiana (27-7, 19-15 ATS)
- UNC 20-15 ATS L35 NCAA Tourney Games, 13-4 ATS L17 as #1 Seed, 3-2 ATS in Sweet-16
- Indiana 8-8-1 ATS L17 in NCAA Tourney, 0-2 ATS in Sweet-16

- #1 vs #5 in SW-16 7-8-1 ATS, 3-4-1 ATS laying 4 to 6.5, 4-4 ATS laying 7 or more

#10 Syracuse (21-13, 18-15 ATS) vs #11 Gonzaga (28-7, 17-15-1 ATS)
- Syracuse 7-6 ATS L13 NCAA Tourney Games, 1-5 ATS L6 in Sweet-16
- Gonzaga 13-16 ATS since 2003, 3-1 ATS as #11, 1-1 ATS in S16

- #10 Seed 3-5 ATS S16 including 0-2 SU/ATS vs #11 Seed

Other trends of note:

Favorites in the Sweet Sixteen are 44-47-3 ATS since 2002-3.
Favorites of -3.5 or less are a vig losing 13-13-1 ATS
Chalk of -4.5 to -6.5 are 14-20-2 ATS
Faves of -7 to -9.5 are 12-7 ATS
Double Digit Chalks 5-7 ATS
 
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At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey

We have a $4.3 million Rainbow 6 jackpot carryover going into Friday’s card at Gulfstream Park and if nobody hits it, there is a mandatory payout on Saturday.

Back in May of 2014 it was hit one day before a mandatory payout, with the late Daniel Borislow having the lone winning ticket which was worth $6,678,939.

Borislow was the inventor of Magic Jack and got into the horse racing game as an owner, including campaigning stakes winners Toccet and Talk is Money.

He died just two months later of a heart attack.

I do not expect there will be a winner of the Rainbow 6 on Friday. For somebody to take down the entire pool they must have the lone winning ticket. Gulfstream Park pretty much assured that would not happen on Friday with a couple of seven horse fields and a five horse field,

I have written before that I am not a fan of these gimmick wagers, which have a high takeout. I only recommend jumping into the pool on a mandatory payout day.


Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Md $16,000 (12:35 ET)
#9 Fairytale Finish 9-5
#5 Put It Back Jack 3-1
#4 Brunello Music 12-1
#8 Baduke 4-1

Analysis: Fairytale Finish stalked the early pace, came with a four wide bid but had to steady after getting bumped at the 3/16's, angled out for room and finished up well for third. Two and three back he was on the main track in races washed off the turf. He was a good second four back in his second career start. The beaten chalk in three of his five starts, the price is going to be light here as well but he just needs a clean trip with Lanerie back aboard.

Put It Back Jack tries turf for the first time here if the weather holds. Her headed home with a clear lead last out on the main track but got run down late, missing by a neck. He was claimed out of the race by the Pointer barn that is 24% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. He has three sibs that are winners but no turf winners to date.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 5,9 / 4,5,8,9
TRI: 5,9 / 4,5,8,9 / 4,5,6,8,9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 8 Clm $12,500B (4:05 ET)
#4 Neuk 4-1
#6 Son of a Preacher 5-1
#1 Dancin in the Heat 3-1
#5 Changing Direction 7-2

Analysis: Neuk tracked the early pace and finished gamely to beat $12,500 claimers last out going six furlongs on the main track here. The runner up Inky Dinky Do came back to beat $12,500 non-winners of two in his next outing on March 9. She takes on older for the first time here but she is the lone runner in here that has beaten winners and she is in the right barn with the hot Navarro.

Son of a Preacher caught a sloppy track last out where he made a mild late run and ended up bumping a foe in the stretch. The third place finisher Gran the Man returned to beat $16,000 non-winners of two in his next outing on March 18. He comes back with blinkers added and as a gelding in his first start off the claim by the Rodriguez barn that is 23% winners first off the claim.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 4,6 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,4,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #4 Brunello Music 12-1
R5: #1 Our Azure 8-1
R7: #8 Ebro River 8-1
R9: #4 Curlin’s Princess 8-1
R10: #3 Camino Canta 15-1

Good luck today!
 
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Woodbine Harness: Friday 3/25 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2,3/3,4,6/3,6/3,7/3,4,5 = $21.60

EARLY PICK 4: 3,7/3,4,5/3,4,6/4,8,9 = $54

LATE PICK 4: 4,8,9/1,3/3,4,7/1,2,9 = $54

MEET STATS: 308 - 978 / $1607.10 BEST BETS: 50 - 92 / $181.10

SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 91 / $218.80

Best Bet: DILLY DALI (5th)

Spot Play: MISCHIEVIOUSGIRLS (9th)


Race 1

(2) RUBIS PRESCOTT has raced better recently and she could get a perfect pocket trip here if she can beat the mare to her left off the gate; slight nod. (3) TWIN B INSPIRING rung up some wild fractions last week then hung on late. She is likely to try the same approach here and must be caught. (1) P L HURRICANE is another that should get a good trip near the front, consider.

Race 2

(3) DOMITIAN HALL was a good 2nd to a sharp winner last time and he has done well in the new barn. He should be a major player here. (4) FLEET BUMBLEBEE faced tougher last week and closed belatedly. He should be heard from earlier this time. (6) NIGHTONTHEROAD continues to race well but needs to be more forwardly placed early to threaten for the top spot. That tactic is hard to predict here.

Race 3

(3) WITCH DALI and (6) MS MAC N CHEESE are back racing against their own gender here and figure to be prominent. The former could trip out in the latter's pocket this time. (4) WAASMULA also raced vs. males last week and showed little. She can make the ticket in this field.

Race 4

(3) JUSTCALLMERONALD raced great after he got back on stride in his March 12th race. He can take this if he behaves. (7) DOMEDOMEDOME takes a big class plunge and is the one to beat. I would think Moiseyev will be on the move much earlier than usual here. (5) J CS JAKE raced okay vs. a sharp winner last week. He can fill one of the lower rungs of the exotic wagers here.

Race 5

(5) DILLY DALI faces much easier here. She should be tough vs. this group. (4) DIANNA SANTANNA is sharp and dangerous but often gets mired behind poor cover. She seems to need a trip to win. (3) DAZZLE N DELIGHT was a winner when last in this class on February 12th and should be kept on early Pick 4 tickets on the class drop.

Race 6

(4) SECRET MISSY steps up slightly following a lifetime-best score and looks as good as any here. (3) PISCEAN races better when forwardly-placed and is also a threat to double up here. (6) KADDY also looks to repeat but is unlikely to get the soft trip she enjoyed last week.

Race 7

(8) WHISTYS PARADISE was flying at the end of her mile last week now returns on a 7-day rotation which could help get her home first. (4) I C ANASTRO took a new life's mark first off the Moreau claim last week and looks like the one to beat. (9) CYNDALIANNE DUC went a long first-over trip in the same mile. She could beat the top two if she latches onto some decent cover this time.

Race 8

(3) HILLSONATOR continues to roll right along with 6 wins in 8 starts and having not missed the exacta once this season. He is the one to upend again here. (1) MISSYS GA GA has been great in her past three starts and could give the choice a run for his money here. (6) OAKLEA WYATT pressured the choice in the back 1/2 last week and held on well. He is in very good form and should take a share here.

Race 9

(3) MISCHIEVOUSGIRLS gets back to meeting conditioned foes and should get an honest pace to track here; slight nod over (4) POP GOES THE WEASEL who has been dynamite since shipping into Woodbine three starts back. (7) DAZZLING ROCKETTE has been finishing fast vs. tougher and should be along late for a piece of this.

Race 10

(1) PINKY TUSCADERO faces much easier here and could break the goose egg in the 2016 win column vs. this group. (9) NINETTE B raced decently off the claim but likely slowed the first 1/2 down too much. She should be a threat here. (2) AN ANGEL SHES NOT took a shuffle after making the lead early last week. She is another to consider for late Pick 4 tickets in a wide-open finale. (5) MACHET ROCKET drops in class and should stick around for a slice in this company. (4) DOCS HOLLYWOOD moves off the 10-hole after drawing it twice straight and she could enter contention here and make the ticket.
 

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