Friday 3/18/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Kings (26-41) at Pistons (34-34)

Date: March 18, 2016 7:30 PM EDT

If the Detroit Pistons are to take advantage of a favorable four-game stretch on a lengthy homestand, they'll need to improve their recent defensive play.

The Pistons can start by avoiding a third consecutive defeat Friday night against the Sacramento Kings.

Following its worst loss in 22 years, 124-81 at Washington on Monday, Detroit (34-34) could at least look forward to returning home for an extended stay. The Pistons didn't play poorly while opening this nine-game home stretch with Wednesday's 118-114 defeat to Atlanta, but a couple of key lapses in the second half led to their third loss in four games.

Up 11 near the end of the third quarter, the Pistons allowed a 16-2 Hawks run that began with a 3-pointer from center Al Horford. Atlanta used a 10-0 run late in the fourth to erase a one-point Detroit lead.

Detroit played somewhat better defensively, holding the Hawks to 43.8 percent shooting after the previous three opponents shot 51.4 percent. But it allowed Atlanta to go 4 of 7 from beyond the arc in the fourth, and has yielded an average of 117.8 points in four games.

"I can't find any answers," said coach Stan Van Gundy, whose team is fighting for the eighth playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. "We're just not guarding anybody."

Detroit shot 46.4 percent and was much better offensively after equaling its lowest point total of the season Monday.

"We have to come back prepared for Friday and try to get a win there," said forward Andre Drummond, who had 18 rebounds and 18 points after failing to score 10 in two of the previous three contests.

The Pistons seemingly have a good opportunity to get back on track with lottery-bound opponents Sacramento (26-41), Brooklyn, Milwaukee and Orlando in town over a six-day stretch. They are 17-13 against sub-.500 teams.

"They're important," said guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who is averaging 22.3 points in his last four games. "We've got to take the next four games and we've got to take them real serious. We can't play down to our opponent."

Detroit's five-game winning streak against Sacramento ended with a 101-92 road loss Nov. 11. However, the Kings have dropped five in a row at The Palace, and enter this meeting losers in 10 of 12.

After snapping a five-game skid with Tuesday's 106-98 road win over the Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento took a step back with its 123-108 home loss to New Orleans one night later.

'We lacked that spirit that we had (Tuesday) night," said coach George Karl, whose club allowed the Pelicans to shoot 54.4 percent overall and 12 of 21 from 3-point range. "The game got loose on us.'

Still managing to co-exist with Karl, DeMarcus Cousins was held to 20 points on 8-of-21 shooting. Cousins scored 33 and was 4 of 5 from beyond the arc against the Pistons in November, but he's totaled 31 points on 10-of-32 shooting and committed 11 turnovers in the last two at Detroit.

It's uncertain if teammates Rajon Rondo (toe, thumb, shoulder) and Marco Belinelli (ankle) will miss a second straight contest. Guard Ben McLemore (finger) might miss his sixth consecutive game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Celtics (39-29) at Raptors (46-21)

Date: March 18, 2016 7:30 PM EDT

Facing the possibility of matching their longest losing streak of the season has the Boston Celtics feeling a sense of urgency.

The Celtics try to snap their three-game skid Friday night when they face the Atlantic Division-leading Toronto Raptors for the first of two meetings in under a week.

Boston (39-29) is in good position to reach the playoffs for a second consecutive season, sitting five games clear of the cutoff. Despite that, the Celtics are feeling pressure after falling 130-109 to Oklahoma City on Wednesday in their most lopsided home defeat of the season. Their losing streak follows a 7-2 stretch, during which they averaged 110.7 points.

"We gotta win," guard Isaiah Thomas told the team's official website after scoring 29 points. "The playoff picture - not saying we're not going to make the playoffs, but - it's close, so Toronto is another test for us. We gotta be mature about the situation and just try to get a win."

Boston has only won three of its last 11 meetings with the Raptors (46-21), dropping five of six at Toronto after a 115-109 loss on Jan. 20. The Celtics gave up 55.4 percent from the field in one of their worst defensive efforts of the season.

Thomas has continued to excel on the opposite end, averaging 27.3 points on 49.2 percent shooting in his last seven games.

With a 7 1/2-game lead over Boston, Toronto is nearing a third straight Atlantic title but is more concerned with closing the two-game deficit on Cleveland for the conference lead.

Toronto has won 11 of its last 14 games after beating Indiana 101-94 in overtime Thursday, with DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry scoring 28 points apiece.

"We understand that someone on our team is eventually going to get hot late in the game," DeRozan said. "I started to hit some shots and then Kyle got going."

DeRozan is averaging 29.5 points over the last eight games, and Lowry is scoring 28.7 over the last three while hitting 10 of 22 from 3-point range.

"We know that those guys are going to make tough shots," Celtics guard Avery Bradley said. "We just have to try to make every possession hard on them and try to take the supporting cast out. It's the same mindset as (Wednesday's) game, and hopefully they're not making every shot too."

DeRozan has scored 29.6 per game in his last five against Boston, including 34 on 13-of-25 shooting in January.

Lowry hasn't enjoyed the same success in this season's two matchups, scoring 14 points in each while shooting 7 of 22.

Bismack Biyombo set a franchise record with 25 rebounds Thursday, and added a career-high 16 points. The center, however, has only totaled seven points and 10 boards in two games against Boston this season.

He'll have to contend with Kelly Olynyk, who is playing his second game since missing 12 with a shoulder injury. The center was sluggish Wednesday, finishing with eight points while missing 6 of 7 shots.

"A little pain. A little discomfort," Olynyk said. "Trying to just keep the strength and keep the muscles activated. Hopefully you don't take too big of a bump but other than that it felt alright out there. I just need to get back into a rhythm."

He's averaging 19.0 points in the last three visits to Toronto.

These teams will conclude their season series Wednesday in Boston.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Trail Blazers (35-34) at Pelicans (25-42)

Date: March 18, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

The Portland Trail Blazers' playoff hopes are looking a little more tenuous because of their recent road woes but they'll next face a team that's struggled almost no matter where it's been playing.

The Blazers will seek to end a six-game losing streak away from home by sending the New Orleans Pelicans to another defeat Friday night.

Portland's road skid reached a season high Thursday with a 118-110 defeat to San Antonio, its third consecutive visit to a Western Conference division leader. The Blazers opened their four-game trip with a 128-94 drubbing to Oklahoma City on Monday.

"You play in San Antonio and Oklahoma City, you know it's going to be tough," coach Terry Stotts said. "I don't think it's about keeping our spirits up. It's just about competing."

Those six straight road losses are responsible for Portland's 2-6 overall mark in its last eight games. The Blazers (35-34) have seen what was a 4 1/2-game lead on a playoff spot earlier this month cut to 1 1/2 by surging Utah, winners of four straight.

With the Jazz idle Friday, Portland will try to pad its advantage by handing New Orleans a ninth loss in 11 games.

"It's an important game and one that we want to win," guard C.J. McCollum said. "We have to go out there and execute."

The Pelicans (25-42) have only beaten one team over that stretch, Sacramento, and avoided an 0-5 road trip with Wednesday's 123-108 victory.

Ryan Anderson scored 21 of his team-best 29 points in the second quarter, and New Orleans had a season-high 74 in the first half. The Pelicans averaged 49.7 points in their three previous opening halves.

"Obviously, we struggled through this whole road trip. I thought we had some good moments, played some good basketball, couldn't quite get over the hump. I thought from start to finish we did a good job tonight," coach Alvin Gentry said.

New Orleans topped the Kings 115-112 on March 7 before hitting the road to avoid a season-high fourth consecutive home defeat. The Pelicans also beat Portland 115-89 on Dec. 23 in New Orleans to end a seven-game skid in the series.

Damian Lillard sat out for the Blazers because of plantar fasciitis in his left foot after scoring 30 in a home victory over the Pelicans on Dec. 14.

McCollum, who scored a team-best 26 points Thursday, had a career-high 37 in a 112-94 victory over New Orleans on Oct. 28.

New Orleans' Anthony Davis is averaging 27.0 points on 57.9 percent shooting in the season series, and Portland will be short-handed in its next attempt to slow him down.

Meyers Leonard is expected to miss at least two more games after dislocating his left shoulder in practice Wednesday. He suffered the same injury Nov. 11 and sat out seven contests.

Chris Kaman, averaging 3.2 points, had a season-high 12 on 5-of-6 shooting and five rebounds in 14-plus minutes in his absence.

The Trail Blazers, who won six straight away from Portland prior to the skid, had a seven-game road losing streak last season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Timberwolves (22-46) at Rockets (34-34)

Date: March 18, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

The Houston Rockets' first two games this week serve as a microcosm of their inconsistent season, as they went from a season-best defensive effort to historically bad.

Maybe a return to a series they have dominated the last three seasons will get them back to the former.

The Rockets hope Friday night's visit from the Minnesota Timberwolves helps steady a rocky stretch as they go for their sixth consecutive win in this series and seventh straight at Toyota Center.

Houston's up-and-down season has led to a 34-34 record and a share of the Western Conference's seventh seed with Dallas, just ahead of Utah.

This week has seen the good but skipped over the bad to the ugly.

On the positive end, the Rockets posted their largest margin of victory with Monday's 130-81 win over Memphis, logging season bests for both opponent points and field-goal percentage (29.7). But on Wednesday, the Los Angeles Clippers made 56.6 percent of their attempts and 12 of 30 3s in beating Houston 122-106.

The opponent field-goal percentage increase of 26.9 is the league's highest in consecutive games since Philadelphia held Charlotte to 30.7 percent on Feb. 9, 2013, before the Clippers finished at 58.7 two days later.

The Rockets seemed to pull out of a funk with four wins in five games from March 2-11, but they have dropped two of three since. Opponents shot at least 54.5 percent in those two defeats while eclipsing 120 points. Houston has surrendered at least 110 in 10 of the last 22 games, and opponents are shooting 50.3 percent in 12 losses during that stretch.

'The intensity wasn't there,' interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff said after the loss to Los Angeles. 'We didn't come out with any force defensively. You give up 35 points and 37 points in two quarters of play against a very good team, coming back is going to be tough if not impossible.'

James Harden pulled out of a shooting funk by making 5 of 10 3s for 33 points to go with eight assists, and the recently signed Michael Beasley had 16 points and eight rebounds.

Harden finished with 27 points and 11 assists to help the Rockets to their fifth straight win in this series with a 107-104 victory on Jan. 13. The Rockets are 9-1 against the Timberwolves since March 15, 2013.

Minnesota (22-46) has won two of three to open a four-game trip. Zach LaVine scored 28 points in each of the last two games and matched a career high with six 3-pointers in Wednesday's 114-108 victory in Memphis.

The Timberwolves equaled a season high for points in any quarter with 42 in the opening frame before holding off a late Grizzlies rally.

'We're just glad we got the win,' LaVine said. 'The main thing is to just get a win. You win by 20, you win by one, it's a win.'

It was just Minnesota's fifth victory in its last 27 road games. Houston is 18-15 at home and has lost three of its last five there.

While the Rockets held LaVine to 1-of-6 shooting for two points in January, Andrew Wiggins made 9 of 16 shots for 28 points - his third straight game with at least that many against Houston.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Warriors (61-6) at Mavericks (34-34)

Date: March 18, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

Golden State coach Steve Kerr insists all the record chasing is finally wearing on his players, though the Warriors certainly aren't showing any signs of fatigue on the court.

After extending their NBA-record run at home, the Warriors resume their pursuit of 73 wins Friday night when they take on the Dallas Mavericks at the scene of one of their six defeats.

Golden State hasn't shown many weaknesses while compiling a 61-6 record, which remains one game ahead of Chicago's mark through 67 during its record 72-win season in 1995-96.

"I thought that record was unbreakable, really," Kerr said. "The last 20 years, I never thought anyone would come close. There's still 16 games to go and things happen, but the fact that we're here talking about it is a testament to our guys' competitive desire."

The Warriors won the last five of a 6-0 homestand by an average of 19.6 points. With Wednesday's 121-85 victory over New York, they also became the first team in the history of the four American professional sports leagues to win 50 straight home games.

Despite all the success, Kerr says his team is beginning to wear down. He's taking precautions to slow that process, limiting practice time and picking spots to give guys rest.

"You can kind of see it their eyes and legs a little bit," Kerr added. "I think you just get a feel as a coach, and as a staff, you get a read on guys as you see how energetic they are or not. It's something that every team that makes a championship run goes through."

Banged-up reserves Andre Iguodala, Festus Ezeli and Kevon Looney won't make a three-game trip that includes Saturday's showdown with San Antonio, the league's second-best club.

Golden State, looking to avoid its third back-to-back road losses of the season, is likely to be careful not to look ahead to the Spurs because of a 114-91 loss at Dallas on Dec. 30.

The Warriors, however, did not have Curry in that contest due to a bruised leg and Thompson was held to just 10 points on 4-of-15 shooting. Curry had 14 points on 4-of-11 shooting Jan. 27, but Thompson stepped up with a season-high 45 points in a 127-107 home victory.

J.J. Barea led Dallas with 23 points and five 3-pointers in the first meeting. Chandler Parsons finished with 23 points and seven rebounds in January when Dallas played without Dirk Nowitzki and Zaza Pachulia.

The Mavericks (34-34) hope to survive a late-season funk after losing for the sixth time in seven games Wednesday, 99-98 at East-best Cleveland. They're tied with Houston for the West's final two playoff spots, with both holding a slim advantage over ninth-place Utah.

Nowitzki and David Lee finished with 20 points apiece and Barea contributed 17 against the Cavaliers, but the team's rally from a 20-point second-half deficit fell just short.

"We know if we play hard on both ends we can beat anybody, but if it's the third quarter and we're down 20 each time, it's going to be tough to come back against good teams," Nowitzki said.

The Mavericks are slumping defensively at home, allowing 109.8 points per game in their past 11. They'll try to avoid losing five straight there for the first time since a six-game skid in 1999-2000.

Dallas has dropped eight of the past nine meetings overall versus Golden State.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Suns (18-50) at Lakers (14-54)

Date: March 18, 2016 10:30 PM EDT

Don't tell Los Angeles Lakers coach Byron Scott that his team's fans want to lose Friday night against the Phoenix Suns.

It's uncertain whether or not Kobe Bryant will play and it's also not clear if his presence will help or hurt his team's chance at a victory.

What is clear is that there is plenty of incentive for the Western Conference's worst teams to lose when they meet Friday night at Staples Center.

Los Angeles (14-54) owns the league's second-worst record and its fans would like to finish with that mark since the franchise will enhance its chances of a top-three lottery pick that way. If the Lakers fail in the lottery and slip to the fourth pick, the choice will go to Philadelphia.

Surpassing Phoenix (18-50) in the standings would hurt the Lakers' lottery odds. These teams meet twice in the next six days after splitting their first two meetings.

"As far as I'm concerned, we're not in a weird position," Scott said. "We play Phoenix and we're trying to win the game."

The Lakers have lost three straight to fall to 2-4 on this eight-game homestand as they played without Bryant in Tuesday's 106-98 loss to Sacramento. The retiring veteran continues to battle shoulder problems and Scott termed Bryant's chances of playing Friday at "50-50."

If Bryant doesn't play, Scott said he will give Metta World Peace his second straight start.

Bryant is the NBA's worst shooter among qualifying players at 35.6 percent overall and 27.5 percent on 3-pointers. The Lakers have won four of their last 11 games he has missed.

Phoenix had a five-game win streak over Los Angeles end the last time these teams met, a 97-77 defeat Jan. 3 that Bryant sat out. He has not faced the Suns this season, has missed six of the last nine matchups and hasn't played in a victory over Phoenix since he made 1 of 8 shots for four points and eight turnovers in a 91-85 win Feb. 12, 2013.

The Lakers expect to have forward Brandon Bass back after he sat out Tuesday because of a corneal abrasion in his right eye. He may have to wear goggles.

"If they say I have to wear the goggles, I don't have no choice, right?" Bass said. "But if they say I don't have to, then I don't have to, then I ain't gonna wear 'em. But we'll see how it goes."

The Suns fell for the fourth time in five games, 103-69 at Utah on Thursday. They shot a season-low 34.1 percent and finished with their lowest point total.

'We played passive aggressive in the first half," coach Earl Watson said. 'In the second half, we played timid. We couldn't hit a shot. We couldn't stop their runs. That isn't acceptable, that can't happen.'

Brandon Knight scored a team-high 17 in his third start since missing 21 games with a strained groin. He has totaled 55 points and 24 assists this season versus Los Angeles with his first career triple-double in a 120-101 rout Nov. 16.

Rookie Devin Booker was held to seven points on 3-of-14 shooting Thursday after he entered averaging 23.6 in his first eight games in March.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds: Friday, March 18, 2016 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

Most experts have pegged LSU freshman Ben Simmons as the No. 1 overall pick for this summer's NBA Draft, and Simmons already has signed with an agent, so he's leaving LSU. But Simmons didn't take his schoolwork very seriously -- in fact, LSU, perhaps fearing that it would incur some NCAA violations, passed on the NIT when it missed the NCAA Tournament. Will Simmons not being a great student scare NBA teams off? Probably not. But the guy has no jumper. And if Duke can make a long run in the Big Dance and freshman star Brandon Ingram, who can shoot, plays really well then Ingram could be the choice at No. 1 overall. Some other guys are definitely going to raise their stocks in the draft with big games in the Big Dance as well.


Cavaliers at Magic (+7.5, 212)

Cleveland beat Dallas 99-98 on Wednesday without LeBron James, who was rested in the second of a back-to-back. And as long as the Cavs have a comfortable lead atop the East, expect that to continue -- and not just for James. Kyrie Irving stepped up without LeBron and had 33 points. Kevin Love added 23 points and 18 rebounds. Not a coincidence how those guys' numbers go way up with James on the bench. Orlando lost 107-99 in Charlotte on Wednesday. The Magic were down as much as 26. The Magic are 0-3 vs. the Cavs this season and have dropped 13 straight in the series, which is the second-longest skid vs. one team of all-time for Orlando. The record is 14 against the Pistons from 1988-1993.

Key trends: The Cavs are 7-0 against the spread in their past seven in Orlando. The "over/under" is 5-2 in those seven.

Early lean: Cavaliers and under.

Thunder at 76ers (+15, 220)

Potential trap game for Oklahoma City here as the Thunder are off an impressive 130-109 win in Boston on Wednesday. Kevin Durant was regularly greeted with chants of "Come to Boston!" and had 28 points, nine assists and seven rebounds in just over three quarters. Durant has scored at least 20 in 53 straight games. Philadelphia hosted Washington on Thursday. The Sixers lost 102-85 in OKC on Nov. 13. Durant sat out and Russell Westbrook had a triple-double. It was his third in his past four games against Philadelphia.

Key trends: OKC is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. The under is 5-1 in the previous six.

Early lean: I'll take the points. Go over.

Kings at Pistons (TBA)

Sacramento lost 123-108 at home to New Orleans on Wednesday. DeMarcus Cousins had 20 points and 12 rebounds, but the Kings were down as many as 27. Rajon Rondo, Marco Belinelli and Ben McLemore all missed the game. Now Sacramento must win its final seven home games to avoid a losing record in their final season at Sleep Train Arena. Detroit lost a second straight Wednesday, 118-114 over Atlanta. The Pistons led by 11 in the third quarter. Andre Drummond had 18 points and 18 rebounds but missed nine of 17 free throws. The Pistons lost in Sacramento 101-92 on Nov. 11.

Key trends: The Kings are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings. The under is 5-0 in those five.

Early lean: Long trip across country and Kings are banged up. This shouldn't be close even with Detroit's Reggie Jackson questionable.

Celtics at Raptors (TBA)

Lone national TV game of the night on NBA TV. Boston lost a third straight Wednesday, 130-109 vs. the Thunder. It was Boston's second straight loss at TD Garden following a 14-game home winning streak. The 130 points allowed were the most given up by the Celtics in regulation since 2004. Forward Kelly Olynyk returned from a 12-game injury absence. He played 22 minutes. Toronto was in Indiana on Thursday. The Raptors are 2-0 vs. Boston this season and won the game on Toronto 115-109 on Jan. 20.

Key trends: The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their past six road games. The over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.

Early lean: I think this is TBA with the worry that Raptors coach Dwane Casey might give point guard Kyle Lowry the game off in the second of a back-to-back. Plus, it's not clear if Jonas Valanciunas will play Thursday or here. So wait on those guys.

Timberwolves at Rockets (-8.5, 221.5)

Minnesota won at short-handed Memphis 114-108 on Wednesday. Zach LaVine scored 28 points. Karl-Anthony Towns added 18 points and 10 boards. The team's 42 first-quarter points matched a Minnesota season high for points in a quarter. Houston lost 122-106 at home to the Clippers on Wednesday. James Harden led Houston with 33 points and eight assists. The Rockets have allowed 110 or more points in 10 of the past 22 games. Houston has won six in a row at home vs. the Timberwolves. Both teams have scored 100-plus points in nine of the past 10 meetings.

Key trends: The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their past six after a double-digit loss. The over is 7-0 in the past seven meetings.

Early lean: Rockets and over.

Trail Blazers at Pelicans (-2, 216)

Portland was in San Antonio on Thursday. New Orleans ended a four-game skid with a 123-108 win in Sacramento on Wednesday. Sacramento native Ryan Anderson had 29 points for the Pelicans in his final game at Sleep Train Arena, where his high school team played in the state playoffs. The Pelicans set a season high with 74 points in the first half while completing a four-game sweep. Portland leads this season series here 2-1, winning both at home. The Blazers are looking for their third straight season series win over New Orleans.

Key trends: The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 6-1 in the previous seven.

Early lean: Pelicans and under.

Warriors at Mavericks (+9, 227)

This screams potential trap game for Golden State as it visits San Antonio in the NBA game of the year on Saturday night. The Warriors won a sixth in a row on Wednesday, 121-85 against the Knicks to complete an unbeaten six-game homestand. Steph Curry had 34 points in the team's 50th straight home win. Andre Iguodala missed a third straight game and won't play here. Dallas lost 99-98 in Cleveland on Wednesday. The Mavs had possession late with a chance to win but a pass for Dirk Nowitzki was stolen. The Warriors have won eight of the last nine regular-season meetings with the Mavericks but Dallas did win at home on Dec. 30.

Key trends: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 8-3 in Dallas' past 11 at home.

Early lean: Warriors and over.

Suns at Lakers (TBA)

Phoenix was in Utah on Thursday. The Lakers lost a third in a row Tuesday, 106-98 against the Kings. Kobe Bryant sat out with his shoulder problems. Brandon Bass also missed the game. Important for the Lakers to lose this as it would all but guarantee they finish with the second-worst record in the NBA and that the Suns can't overtake them for that. Remember, if L.A.'s draft pick isn't in the Top 3, it goes to Philadelphia. Phoenix has won five of the past six meetings in the series.

Key trends: The home team has covered five of the past seven meetings. The over is 4-1-1 in the past six.

Early lean: Does Kobe really deserve a TBA at this point? I don't think it matters, Lakers will win and maybe regret they did later on.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Friday's hot teams
-- Thunder won four of last six games (4-1 last 5AF).
-- Cavaliers won seven of their last nine games (3-1 last 4AF)
-- Toronto won five of its last six games (3-6 last 9HF).
-- Rockets won four of their last six games (2-5 last 7HF).
-- Warriors won their last six games (2-4 last 6AF).

Cold teams
-- 76ers lost nine of their last ten games (2-5 last 7HU).
-- Orlando lost five of its last seven games (9-5HU).
-- Sacramento lost six of its last seven games (6-4 last 10AU). Pistons lost three of their last four (13-3 last 16HF).
-- Celtics lost four of their last five games (2-7 last 9AU).
-- Portland lost six of its last eight games (1-3 last 4AU). Pelicans lost eight of their last ten games (2-7 last 9HF).
-- Minnesota lost six of its last nine games (4-4 last 8AU).
-- Mavericks lost six of their last seven games (5-4HU).
-- Suns lost four of their last five games (3-2 last 5AU). Lakers lost five of their last seven games (3-2HF).

Series records
-- 76ers lost last 10 games (3-7 vs spread) with Oklahoma City.
-- Cavaliers won last ten games (10-0 vs spread) with Orlando.
-- Pistons won five of last six games with Sacramento.
-- Raptors won six of their last eight games with Boston.
-- Trailblazers won seven of last eight games with New Orleans.
-- Rockets won their last five games with Minnesota.
-- Warriors won eight of last nine games with Dallas.
-- :Lakers lost five of their last six games with Phoenix.

Totals
-- Seven of last ten Philly games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Orlando games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine Sacramento games stayed under total.
-- Over is 7-2 last nine times toronto played night before.
-- Six of last seven Blazer-Pelican games stayed under total.
-- Last seven Houston-Minnesota games went over total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Golden State games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Phoenix-Laker games.

Back/backs
-- 76ers are 3-7 vs spread last 10 times they played night before.
-- Raptors are 7-5 vs spread if they played night before.
-- Portland is 6-9 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Suns are 4-9 vs spread if they played the night before.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Quest for 73 Continues as Warriors Visit Mavs'

Winning the championship isn't enough anymore for the Golden State Warriors. They're on a quest to break the NBA regular-season record of 72 wins, set by the 1995-1996 Chicago Bulls. The saga continues Friday night (8:30 PM ET) when the Warriors visit the Dallas Mavericks, who are fighting to make the playoffs.

After smashing everything in sight earlier in the season, the Warriors (61-6 SU, 38-27-2 ATS) have come down to earth a little, and it's affecting them at the pay window. Golden State is 15-2 SU and 7-9-1 ATS over the past 17 games. The Dubs have also run into some rare injury problems; swingman Andre Igoudala (sprained left ankle) and back-up center Festus Ezeli (scoped left knee) are both out for Friday's game.

The Mavericks (34-34 SU, 36-31-1 ATS) have also lost a step or two, but in their case, it's costing them victories. Dallas is just 6-12 SU, 7-11 ATS since the beginning of February. This is despite adding free agent power forward and former Warrior David Lee, who has played at a very high level during his 10 games in Dallas. Lee has 19.8 points and 15.0 rebounds per 36 minutes with the Mavs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday - Session 1
By David Schwab

Midwest Region (St. Louis, MO)
No. 10 Syracuse Orange vs. No. 7 Dayton Flyers (CBS, 12:15 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Syracuse -1, 131

Betting Matchup

Syracuse’s record with Jim Boeheim coaching the team proved to be good enough to earn a spot in the 68-team field, but the Orange still comes into this game with just one straight-up win in their last six games while going 3-3 against the spread. The total has gone OVER in six of their last eight outings. Senior forward Michael Gbinije led the team in both points (17.8) and assists (4.4) and he has been able to raise that scoring average to 24 points a game over his last four starts.

The Flyers run to an Atlantic 10 Tournament title was cut short in a stunning 82-79 loss to St. Joe’s as 2 ½-point favorites. They are now a costly 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 contests and the total has gone OVER in eight of their last 11 games. In that A-10 semifinals’ loss, senior forward Dyshawn Pierre put-up 22 points while going 8-15 from the field. Dayton is averaging 73 points a game while holding opponents to 65.8 points on defense.

Betting Trends

-- The Orange are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games against a team from the A-10 and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games.

-- The Flyers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five ACC matchups and the total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games in this tournament.

-- These two met in the 2014 NCAA Tournament with Dayton squeezing-out a 55-53 win as an 8 ½-point underdog. The total stayed UNDER 131 points in that game.

South Region (Brooklyn, NY)
No. 15 UNC Asheville Bulldogs vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (truTV, 12:40 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Villanova -16, 141 ½

Betting Matchup

The Bulldogs made their way back into the Big Dance with a run to the Big South Tournament Championship after finishing third in the regular season at 12-6 SU. They covered ATS in all three tournament games and the total stayed UNDER in two of the contests. Freshman guard Dylan Smith has led the team in scoring this season with 13.5 PPG.

Villanova’s bid to match its regular season Big East title in its conference tournament came up just short in a 69-67 loss to Seton Hall as a six-point favorite in the title game. It was only the second SU loss in the Wildcats last 14 games, but they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 outings. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last nine games. Junior guard Josh Hart is averaging a team-high 15.5 PPG and he has exceeded that average in four of his last five starts.

Betting Trends

-- The Bulldogs have gone 3-1-1 ATS in five previous NCAA Tournament games and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games at a neutral site.

-- The Wildcats have failed to cover in five of their last seven games in this tournament and the total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 15 neutral-site games.

West Region (Oklahoma City, OK)
No. 10 VCU Rams vs. No. 7 Oregon State Beavers (TNT, 1:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: VCU -4, 141

Betting Matchup

VCU’s run at the A-10 Tournament title also came up short in its 87-74 loss to St. Joe’s in the title game. The Rams closed as four-point favorites and it was the first time they failed to cover in their last four games. Senior guard Melvin Johnson tweaked his ankle, but he is listed as probable for Friday. He led VCU in scoring this season with 17.4 PPG and the team as a whole is averaging 77.3 points.

The Beavers finished seventh in the Pac-12 with a SU record of 9-9 and their run in the conference tournament ended with a 76-68 loss to California in a game that ended as a PUSH. The total went OVER 137 ½-point line in that game and it has gone OVER in seven of their last eight outings. Senior guard Gary Payton II has led the way with 15.9 PPG as part of team scoring average of 72.1 points. He led the team in scoring in the loss to Cal with 20 points.

Betting Trends

-- The Rams are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site games and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five nonconference games.

-- The Beavers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss and the total has gone OVER in their last seven games at a neutral site.

South Region (Spokane, WA)
No. 13 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. No. 4 California Golden Bears (TBS, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: California -6 ½, 141 ½

Betting Matchup

Hawaii’s three-game run to the Big West Tournament Championship ended with a tight 64-60 victory against Long Beach State as a 4 ½-point favorite. The Warriors are now 11-2 SU in their last 13 games, but a costly 2-5 ATS in their last seven outings. They won the regular season title as well with a SU 13-3 run through conference play behind a scoring average of 77.6 PPG complementing a points-allowed average of 66.5.

The Golden Bear’s Pac-12 Tournament run ended after the win against Oregon State with an 82-78 loss to Utah as 2 ½-point underdogs. Cal remains one of the hottest teams in the conference coming into this tournament with a SU 9-2 record in its last 11 games while going 8-2-1 ATS. This is another well-balanced lineup with 75.1 PPG while holding teams to 67 points at the other end of the court.

Betting Trends

-- The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Pac-12 and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six neutral-site games.

-- The Golden Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Big West and the total has stayed UNDER in their last five nonconference games.

-- These two last met in 2006 with California winning 72-56 as a three-point home favorite. The total stayed UNDER the closing 140 ½-point line.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday - Session 2
By Kevin Rogers

Midwest Region – St. Louis – Scottrade Center
#15 Middle Tennessee State vs. #2 Michigan State (-18, 143 ½) – 2:45 PM EST – CBS

Many people looked at Michigan State (29-5 SU, 22-11 ATS) as a potential top seed after topping Purdue to capture the Big 10 tournament championship. However, the Spartans were relegated to a second seed in the Midwest in spite of finishing the season with 13 wins in their final 14 games, while covering 12 times in this span. Tom Izzo’s team cashed in seven of their last eight opportunities as a double-digit favorite, as the ‘over’ hit six times in this stretch, meaning the Spartans are scoring a bunch of points in these blowouts.

Middle Tennessee State (24-9 SU, 17-15 ATS) pulled off several shockers en route to the Conference USA championship, which included knocking off Old Dominion in the title game, 55-53. The Blue Raiders are back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2013, when they lost in the First Four round to St. Mary’s. MTSU put together a 6-5 ATS record in the underdog role, but lost in both games against tournament teams this season, falling to VCU and South Dakota State.

The Spartans haven’t won a championship since 2000, but reached the second weekend in each of the past four postseasons, including a Final Four trip in 2015. Michigan State owns a 5-3-1 ATS record as a tournament favorite since 2013, while being listed at its biggest chalk number in the Big Dance since cashing as 19-point favorites in the opening round against LIU-Brooklyn in 2012.

South Region – Brooklyn – Barclays Center
#10 Temple vs. #7 Iowa (-7, 139 ½) – 3:10 PM EST – TruTV

The Hawkeyes (21-10 SU, 14-14 ATS) stormed out of the gate with an 11-2 record in Big 10 play, including four victories over Michigan State and Purdue. However, Iowa dropped four of its final five regular season games, followed up by a shocking 68-66 loss to Illinois as 10 ½-point favorites in the Big 10 tournament. For the exception of defeats to Illinois and Penn State, the Hawkeyes lost to quality opponents this season, including setbacks to Indiana (twice), Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa State, and Notre Dame.

Temple (21-11 SU, 17-13 ATS) rallied to win the American Athletic Conference regular season title by winning nine of its final 10 conference games. The Owls flamed out in the conference tournament by losing in the second round to UConn, 77-62 after sweeping the Huskies in the regular season. Fran Dunphy’s team compiled a solid 9-5 ATS record in the underdog role, which included covers in losses to Butler and Utah. Temple cashed the ‘under’ in five consecutive games prior to the AAC tournament, but hit the ‘over’ on low totals (127 ½) in each of the conference tournament contests.

Iowa has failed to cover its last six games in the favorite role, while losing five of those contests outright. The Hawkeyes are 1-2 SU/ATS under Fran McCaffery in the NCAA tournament, with the only victory coming against Davidson in the opening round last season by 31 points. Temple is back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2013, as the Owls made it to the round of 32 before getting eliminated by Indiana, but they covered both games as an underdog.

West Region – Oklahoma City – Chesapeake Energy Arena
#15 CS-Bakersfield vs. #2 Oklahoma (-14, 140) – 4:00 PM EST – TNT

For most of January, Oklahoma (25-7 SU, 12-18 ATS) sat atop the AP Top 25, but consecutive losses to Kansas and Texas Tech in mid-February knocked the Sooners out of the number one position. The Sooners settled for a second seed in the West region after losing to West Virginia by two points in the Big 12 tournament semifinals as Buddy Hield’s desperation three-pointer came after the buzzer. OU struggled to cover numbers throughout Big 12 play by going 6-15 ATS the last 21 games, which included a non-cover in a two-point victory at LSU in the Big 12/SEC Challenge.

What do you know about Cal-State Bakersfield? The Roadrunners (24-8 SU, 3-0 ATS) wrapped up their first WAC championship by beating New Mexico State in the conference tournament, 57-54 to cap off their sixth consecutive victory. CSUB joined Division I in 2007 as it made its first ever NCAA tournament, as its only game against a current tournament squad came in a mid-December loss at Fresno State by eight. The Roadrunners showcase five players that average double-figures in scoring, led by center Aly Ahmed, who puts up 12.9 points per game.

Oklahoma is riding a 10-game streak to the ‘under,’ as Lon Kruger’s team has busted the 75-point mark just twice in this stretch. In spite of the Sooners’ struggles against the number over the last two months, OU put together a 6-4 ATS record this season as a double-digit favorite. However, Oklahoma is 0-7 ATS in its past eight games as a favorite away from Norman, while not cashing as a 13-point favorite in their tournament opener last March, 69-60.

South Region – Spokane – Spokane Veterans Arena
#12 South Dakota State vs. #5 Maryland (-10, 143) – 4:30 PM EST – TBS

Maryland (25-8 SU, 15-16-1 ATS) put together an uneven finish to an otherwise solid season by losing five of its final eight contests, capped off by a 64-61 defeat to Michigan State in the Big 10 tournament semifinals. The Terrapins dropped five of their last six games away from College Park, while posting a 2-4 ATS record as a favorite of eight points or more dating back to mid-January. Maryland is making its second appearance in the Big Dance in Mark Turgeon’s five-year coaching tenure, as the Terps were tripped up by West Virginia in the round of 32 last March.

South Dakota State (26-7 SU, 15-14 ATS) is back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2013 after grabbing the Summit League automatic bid. The Jackrabbits pulled away from rival North Dakota State in the conference championship game, 67-59, while finishing ‘under’ the total for the fifth consecutive contest. South Dakota State is listed as an underdog for the first time since losing at Weber State, 99-95 before Christmas, while winning its only game against a Big 10 opponent by beating Minnesota in December, 84-70 as three-point underdogs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday - Session 3
By Tony Mejia

East Region – St. Louis, MO – Scottrade Center

#7 Wisconsin (-1.5, 133) vs #10 Pittsburgh – 6:50 PM ET, TNT

Things certainly can change a lot in a single year. Last March, Bo Ryan owned the sidelines while Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, Traevon Jackson and Sam Gasser shined on a national stage, leading the Badgers to a memorable run to the National Championship, where they fell short against Duke. None remain with the program, which is now in former assistant Greg Gard’s hands. He’s done a great job taking over for Ryan, who retired midseason, building around Nigel Hayes, Bronson Koenig and Vitto Brown. While it once looked like Wisconsin was NIT-bound, a stretch of 11 wins in 12 games that included upsets of Michigan State, Indiana, Maryland and Iowa rescued the season. The Badgers come in on a two-game losing streak, including being upset themselves in the Big Ten Tournament after a sloppy effort against Nebraska.

The Panthers nearly lost in their first conference tournament game too, but pulled out a vital win over Syracuse that helped them rest easier on Selection Sunday. North Carolina blew Pittsburgh out 88-71 in the quarterfinals, which means it has lost three of the last four games, extending a run that has seen it drop seven of 11 outright. This the team’s return to the NCAAs after falling short last year and will mark their 11th appearance in 13 season under Jamie Dixon, who is an impressive 9-1 in his first contest. He’s got a veteran team whose most productive players are junior forwards Michael Young and Jamel Artis. Senior point guard James Robinson has struggled with his shot all season but remains a trusted floor general.

Offense has been an issue for Pittsburgh, who have run off a pair of games that have gone 'over' the posted total, ending a stretch where the 'under' prevailed 11 of 13 times. The 'under' is 8-1 in Wisconsin's last nine.

East Region – Brooklyn, NY – Barclays Center

#3 West Virginia (-8, 145.5) vs. #14 Stephen F. Austin – 7:10 PM ET, CBS

The Mountaineers utilize one of the most effective pressing styles seen in the college game in years, a frenetic, physical tornado style that is relentless in that it takes the “40 Minutes of Hell” Arkansas approach and looks to make you take it literally. Defensively, they come at you in waves, ranking second in the country in turnovers forced per game. Who’s first? That would be the Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin, who really dig in and defend and protect the 3-point line extremely well. Obviously, their numbers have been built against lesser competition than West Virginia faced in the Big 12, as SFA dominated the Southland and actually faltered in all five games they played against teams in larger conferences. Baylor, Northern Iowa, Arizona State, Tulane and UAB all defeated the ‘Jacks, who are making their third consecutive NCAA appearance. Brad Underwood beat VCU in his first season, but lost to Utah last season. He’s an incredible 88-13 in his three-year tenure at Stephen F. Austin, winning Southland Coach of the Year honors each time. He’s probably on the way to a major conference near you, especially if he pulls off another upset.

Counterpart Bob Huggins employed Underwood as an assistant at K-State and has served as a big influence on Underwood. Huggins finally reached the NCAAs for the first time as a Big 12 member last year, although he’d qualified his alma mater each of the five years they were in the Big East upon taking over, reaching the Final Four in 2010. Last year’s group made the Sweet 16, the seventh time in his career that Huggins has led a team that far. West Virginia had won six straight prior to losing in its first-ever Big 12 Championship game, falling 81-71 against Kansas. Stephen F. Austin has won a Division I-best 20 consecutive games, including the last nine by 20-plus points. Only four of the Lumberjacks’ games have been on the board prior to this one. SFA is 2-2 ATS. The over is 3-1.

Forward Thomas Walkup is the two-time Southland Player of the Year and led the ‘Jacks in points, rebounds, assists and steals. He’s scored 30 or more five times this season. He’s averaged 15.3 points and 10 rebounds in three NCAA Tournament games. Point guard Trey Pinckney has played a large role on all three NCAA teams as distributor and dogged defender. He’s only taken more than two shots per game once in the last 12 games. Reserve Jaysean Paige is West Virginia’s top scorer, averaging 13.9 points in just 22.4 minutes off the bench. Due to their style of sharing the ball and turning defense into offense, six Mountaineers average at least 8.9 points per game. They’re 6-1 ATS over the last seven.

West Region – Oklahoma City, OK – Chesapeake Energy Arena

#3 Texas A&M (-13.5, 155) vs. #14 Green Bay – 7:20 PM ET, TBS

Last time we saw the Aggies, they were falling short in OT in the SEC Championship game, having come excruciatingly close to winning their first title in their new conference, which would’ve been some accomplishment given how strongly Big Blue Nation had descended upon Nashville. It would’ve been a nice topper for A&M in a season where it has already claimed a share of a regular-season title and enters the NCAAs only one win shy of matching the winningest season in program history. The OT loss snapped an eight-game winning streak where the Ags went 6-1-1 ATS despite being favored seven of eight times. An experienced lineup featuring four seniors has paid dividends, but the team is making their first Big Dance appearance since 2011, so none of these guys have played on this stage. A&M went on an ‘under’ run in 10 of 11 games from Jan. 12-Feb. 13, but its offense has picked up nicely over the last month. Currently, the ‘over’ has prevailed in three of four of its games.

That’s fortunate, since this Green Bay team will inevitably score some points. Although A&M held Ben Simmons-led LSU to 38 points in the SEC semis, they’re going to be tested by a Green Bay team that employs the fifth-fastest pace in the country, quickest in this tournament. They scored 99 to defeat top-seeded Valparaiso in the Horizon League semis, then hung nearly 80 on methodical, defensive-minded Wright State. The Phoenix has won eight of nine games and is 6-0-3 ATS in that same span. Green Bay is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1996, riding first-year head coach Linc Darner, who brought his frenetic tempo from D-II Florida Southern. Senior guard Carrington Love is averaging team-highs with 17.7 points, 3.5 assists and 2.6 steals. The top non-conference win for the Phoenix was a 66-63 home win over Akron. They lost at Stanford, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin.

West Region – Spokane, WA – Spokane Arena

#1 Oregon (-23, 133.5) vs. #16 Holy Cross – 7:27 PM ET, TruTV

The Ducks have been called statistically the worst No. 1 seed in history by formulas used throughout the sport, but you can’t argue with their success. Dana Altman put himself in the running for National Coach of the Year by winning 14 of his last 16 games with a team no one had being as dominant as they managed to be. Oregon won the Pac-12 outright, completed a double by beating Washington, Arizona and Utah in the Pac-12 Tournament and opened many eyes that hadn’t seem much throughout the season. Forwards Dillon Brooks, Elgin Cook and Chris Boucher make up one of the top frontcourts in the country. The Ducks have covered in five of the last six games.

The Crusaders are a perfect 6-0, both straight up and against the spread, in games that have been on the board this season. All have been against teams in either their league, the Patriot, or the SWAC, as they come a First Four win over Southern U., hanging on 59-55. Holy Cross started fast in that contest, fell behind, and then got a crucial 3-pointer from reserve guard Robert Champion, one of the heroes of the school's Patriot League Tourney run and leads the team in 3-pointers made. Undersized center Malachi Alexander, the leading scorer and rebounder, is shooting nearly 44 percent from 3-point range. Holy Cross entered postseason play 10-19 and haven't lost since, winning all of their conference tournament games in opposing buildings before Tuesday's win at a neutral site in Dayton. Head coach Bill Carmody will look to take the Ducks out of their element utilizing a 1-3-1 zone and a precision-based offense that isn't easy to prepare for.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday - Session 4
By Brian Edwards

East Regional - Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY (CBS, 9:40 p.m. ET)
**Notre Dame vs. Michigan**

-- The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Notre Dame (21-11 straight up, 14-15 against the spread) as a three-point favorite early Thursday morning. The line moved to 2.5 within an hour. The total opened at 143. As of Thursday afternoon, the Wolverines were +125 on the money line (risk $100 to win $125).

-- This is a 6/11 matchup in the East Region that'll be contested at Barclays Arena in Brooklyn, N.Y. This game will be on CBS at around 9:40 p.m. Eastern.

-- Michigan (23-12 SU, 17-16 ATS) advanced to the Round of 64 by virtue of Wednesday's 67-62 win over Tulsa as a two-point 'chalk' in Dayton. The 129 combined points stayed 'under' the 142.5-point total. Zak Irvin and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman scored 16 points apiece to lead the way. Duncan Robinson finished with 13 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two blocked shots.

-- Michigan has been an underdog 12 times, limping to a 4-8 spread record with three outright victories.

-- Michigan has played eight games on a neutral court this year, posting a 6-2 SU record and a 4-4 ATS mark.

-- Michigan has an excellent backcourt featuring Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton Jr. Irvin is averaging 11.9 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. Walton (11.7 PPG) is averaging team-highs in rebounds (5.5 RPG), assists (4.5 APG) and steals (1.7 SPG). Robinson (11.2 PPG) is a pure shooter, draining 44.7 percent of his launches from 3-point range and 88.6 percent of his free-throw attempts.

-- John Beilein owns the seventh-best career winning percentage among head coaches in the NCAA Tournament. He has a 17-9 record (65.4%).

-- Mike Brey's squad beat Duke 84-79 in overtime as a two-point underdog at the ACC Tournament quarterfinals last Thursday. Zach Auguste was the catalyst with 19 points and 22 rebounds. On Friday, however, the Fighting Irish were run out of the Verizon Center in Washington D.C., where North Carolina cruised to a 78-47 win as a seven-point favorite in the semifinals. Bonzie Colson scored a team-best 15 points in the losing effort.

-- Notre Dame has been a single-digit favorite 14 times this season, going 7-6-1 ATS.

-- Notre Dame has played 11 games against teams in the NCAA field, struggling to a 4-7 record both SU and ATS.

-- Auguste is one of the nation's best post players, averaging 14.4 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. He's hitting 54.9 percent of his shots from the field and has 32 blocked shots. Junior point guard Demetrius Jackson is averaging team-highs in scoring (15.5 PPG), assists (4.8 APG) and steals (1.2 SPG).

-- Brey owns a 9-12 (42.9%) career record in the NCAA Tournament.

-- Totals have been an overall wash (15-15) for the Irish, but it has seen the 'under' hit in seven of its last 10 outings.

-- The 'over' is 19-13-1 overall for the Wolverines, but they have seen the 'under' cash in three straight games and five of their last six.

West Regional - Chesapeake Arena, Oklahoma City, OK (TBS, 9:50 p.m. ET)
**Northern Iowa vs. Texas**

-- This is another 6/11 showdown in the West Region with the winner advancing to face the Wisconsin-Green Bay-Texas A&M winner in Oklahoma City on Sunday. TBS will have the telecast at around 9:50 p.m. Eastern.

-- The Westgate opened Texas (20-12 SU, 16-15 ATS) as a 4.5-point 'chalk' with a total of 124. The tally has been adjusted to 125, but the Longhorns remain 4.5-point favorites. The Panthers are +175 on the money line (risk $100 to win $175).

-- Texas first-year head coach Shaka Smart owns a 7-5 career record (58.3%) in the NCAA Tournament with one Final Four appearance while he was at VCU.

-- Texas has lost five of its last nine games, including a 75-61 setback against Baylor as a 2.5-point underdog at the Big 12 Tournament. Connor Lammert had a team-best 15 points in the losing effort. Kerwin Roach Jr. had 13 points and six rebounds, while Shaquille Cleare was also in double figures with 12 points.

-- Texas has been a single-digit favorite 12 times, posting a 5-7 spread record.

-- Texas has played 18 games against teams in the NCAA field, going 8-10 SU and 10-8 ATS. The Longhorns own six victories over RPI Top-25 foes, including North Carolina, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Baylor and West Va. (twice).

-- Texas is led by Isaiah Taylor, who averages 14.8 points and 4.9 assists per game. The Longhorns are hoping to get 15-20 minutes out of center Cameron Ridley, who had missed 20 straight games with a foot injury before returning to the court at the Big 12 Tournament. Ridley only played two minutes against Baylor, hitting a pair of free throws and missing his only shot from the field. Ridley averages 11.8 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.1 blocked shots per game.

-- No. Iowa (22-12 SU, 19-13-1 ATS) has been absolutely on fire since Jan. 27, compiling a 12-1 SU record and an 11-1-1 ATS mark. The Panthers have won six in a row while going 5-0-1 ATS. They won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament with wins over So. Illinois (66-60), Wichita State (57-52 in OT) and Evansville (56-54).

-- Wes Washpun was the catalyst in the MVC finals win over Evansville, producing 18 points, five rebounds, three assists and two steals. Klint Carlson knocked down 8-of-12 shots in a 17-point effort, while Jeremy Morgan was also in double figures with 14 points.

-- No. Iowa has been an underdog 11 times, producing a 5-6 record both SU and ATS. The Panthers have a 2-0 record against RPI Top-25 foes, a 4-1 mark versus the Top 50 and an 8-3 ledger against the Top 100. They won outright in five of seven games against teams in the NCAA field, including scalps of North Carolina, Iowa State, Stephen F. Austin and Wichita State (twice).

-- Washpun averages team-highs in scoring (14.3 PPG) and assists (5.2 APG), while Morgan (10.4 PPG) paces NIU in rebounding (5.1 RPG), field-goal percentage (47.7%), steals (1.9 SPG) and blocked shots (0.9 BPG).

-- The 'under' is 20-13 overall for No. Iowa, cashing in five straight games and seven of their last eight.

-- The 'under' is 17-13-1 overall for the Longhorns, going 3-0-1 in their last four outings.

East Regional - Scotttrade Center, St. Louis, MO (TNT, 9:20 p.m. ET)
**Weber State vs. Xavier**

-- This is a 2/15 East Region matchup that'll be played in St. Louis, MO. TNT will have the telecast at about 9:20 p.m. Eastern. The winner will face the survivor of Pitt vs. Wisconsin on Sunday.

-- The Westgate opened Xavier (27-5 SU, 19-13 ATS) as a 13-point favorite with a total of 147.5. The total hasn't moved, while the number for the side briefly went to 13.5 before coming back to 13. Gamblers can take the Wildcats to win outright for a +750 return (risk $100 to win $750).

-- Chris Mack's program is making its 10th NCAA Tournament appearance in the last 11 seasons. Xavier has been to the Sweet 16 in three of the last six years. The Musketeers' No. 2 seed is their highest in school history.

-- Xavier lost an 87-83 decision to Seton Hall as a five-point favorite in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament last Friday. Edmond Sumner had 21 points, nine rebounds, two steals and four assists compared to only one turnover in the losing effort. James Farr finished with 18 points, 10 boards and three steals.

-- Xavier has a balance offensive attack with six players averaging 9.4 PPG or better. Trevon Bluiett averages a 15.5 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. Sumner averages 11.3 points, 3.5 assists, 3.4 rebounds and 1.2 steals per contest. Myles Davis (11.1 PPG) dishes out a team-high 4.2 APG and hits 85.1 percent of his free throws.

-- Xavier has been a double-digit favorite 15 times, compiling a 7-8 spread record.

-- Xavier has played 13 games against teams in the field, producing a 10-3 SU record and a 9-4 ATS mark. The Musketeers swept Butler and Providence, in addition to winning non-conference games over Michigan, Alabama, Southern Cal, Cincinnati and Dayton.

-- Mack owns a 6-5 career record (54.5%) in the Tournament.

-- Weber State (26-8 SU, 14-16 ATS) is making its sixth NCAA Tournament appearance since 1995. The Wildcats beat Michigan State in the first round of the 1995 Tournament. In 1999, Harold 'The Show' Arceneaux, a New Orleans product, dropped 36 points on North Carolina in a stunning first-round upset.

-- Weber State won the Big Sky Tournament with victories over Portland State (78-74), North Dakota (83-78 in OT) and Montana (62-59). The Wildcats knocked off the Grizzlies as 1.5-point favorites in the finals. Jeremy Senglin led the way with 20 points, six assists, three rebounds and a pair of steals. Ryan Richardson added 15 points thanks to 3-of-5 shooting from downtown.

-- Weber State is mired in a 3-9 ATS slump in its last nine games. The Wildcats have been underdogs four times, posting a 2-2 record both SU and ATS. They faced only one opponent in the NCAA field, splitting a pair of games both SU and ATS against South Dakota State.

-- Weber State is led by forward Joel Bolomboy, who averages 17.2 points and 12.7 rebounds per contest.

-- The 'under' is 17-13-1 overall for the Wildcats.

-- The 'over' is 21-11 overall for the Musketeers, hitting in their last seven outings.

West Regional - Spokane Arena, Spokane, WA (truTV, 9:55 p.m. ET)
**Cincinnati vs. St. Joseph's**

-- This is a West Region 8/9 showdown in Spokane, WA., with the winner facing Oregon (assuming Holy Cross doesn't become the first No. 16 seed to ever advance) on Sunday. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:55 p.m. Eastern on TruTV.

-- The Westgate opened Cincinnati as a two-point favorite. The number went down to 1.5, then up to as high as three early Thursday. By late Thursday afternoon, the Bearcats were favored by 2.5 and the total was 136. St. Joseph's was +120 on the money line.

-- Cincinnati (22-10 SU, 12-16 ATS) is just 3-3 SU in its last six games and 2-5 ATS in its last seven. The Bearcats are off last Friday's 104-97 loss to UConn in four overtimes. They seemed poised to advance at the AAC Tournament when Kevin Johnson buried a trey with 0.8 seconds left in the third extra session. However, UConn's Jalen Adams answered with a buzzer-beating 65-footer off the glass and the Huskies sealed the deal in the fourth OT. Troy Caupain had 37 points, 10 rebounds, three steals and five assists without a turnover in the gut-wrenching defeat. Octavius Ellis finished with 13 points, 10 rebounds and three blocked shots.

-- As always, Mick Cronin's team gets physical and aggressive with opponents at the defensive end. The Bearcats rank 10th in the nation in scoring defense (62.9 PPG) and 11th in field-goal percentage defense (39.0%).

-- Cincy owns a 5-8 spread record in 13 single-digit 'chalk' situations.

-- Cincy went 4-7 both SU and ATS in 11 games against teams in the field. The Bearcats' best wins came at VCU, vs. SMU and two regular-season scalps of UConn. We should note that they lost three games in overtime and four losses came by eight combined points, including a 59-57 loss at SMU and an 81-79 loss at Iowa State.

-- After losing back-to-back games to close the regular season, St. Joseph's (27-7 SU, 22-10 ATS) went to Brooklyn and won the Atlantic-10 Tournament with wins over George Washington (86-80), Dayton (82-79) and VCU (87-74). Phil Martelli's team took it to the Rams in the A-10 finals as a four-point underdog. DeAndre Bembry erupted for 30 points on 13-of-16 shooting from the field. Bembry also had five rebounds and four assists without committing a turnover. Isaiah Miles finished with 26 points and 12 boards, making 11-of-16 attempts from the floor. Aaron Brown was also in double figures with 13 points.

-- St. Joe's has been an underdog 10 times, compiling an 8-1-1 spread record with eight outright victories. The Hawks played seven games against teams in the field, posting a 5-2 SU record and a 5-1-1 ATS ledger.

-- Miles averages a team-high 18.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. He makes 52.8 percent of his shots from the field and 88.3 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe. Bembry averages 17.3 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. He has a 153/69 assists-to-turnovers ratio and has a team-best 46 steals.

-- The 'over' is 19-13-1 overall for the Hawks, going 11-2 in their last 13 games.

-- The 'under' is 17-10-1 overall for the Bearcats, 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Tournament Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting March 18 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

Do you remember last year's NCAA Tournament? The first Thursday was one of the wildest days ever in the Big Dance with buzzer-beaters and upset galore. The Friday, however, was pretty bland and mostly chalk. Here's hoping that changes this season as the Round of 32 will be finalized by around midnight. Would you be willing to bet all four top seeds make it to the second weekend? The two most in danger of not, in my opinion: Oregon and Virginia.

No. 10 Pittsburgh vs. No. 7 Wisconsin (-2, 130)

East Region game from St. Louis at 6:50 p.m. ET on TNT. The winner probably gets No. 2 Xavier on Sunday. Pittsburgh (21-11) might not have gotten in the NCAA Tournament without a 72-71 win over Syracuse in the teams' ACC Tournament opener. Then the Panthers were blown out by North Carolina and they ended up losing four of their final six. Pitt, which is 10-10 in its past 20 games, had no quality nonconference wins, losing by 13 at home to Purdue in the only good team it played. And the team's only good ACC wins were at Notre Dame and against overrated Duke. A lot of Pitt fans want the school to dump Coach Jamie Dixon barring a long run in this tournament, especially after missing the Big Dance in 2015. Pitt hasn't won more than one game in the NCAA Tournament since 2009. Dixon has the support of the school's AD for what that's worth. And he has led the Panthers to 11 NCAA Tournament appearances in his first 13 years as head coach, tied for third-most in NCAA history for a coach through his first 13 seasons.

Wisconsin (20-12) looked lost in mid-January at 9-9 overall and 1-4 in the Big Ten. About a month earlier, the most successful coach in school history, Bo Ryan, had retired so he could help get long-time assistant Greg Gard the full-time job. But then everything changed when freshman Ethan Happ scored with 10 seconds left against No. 4 Michigan State on Jan. 17. The Badgers won that game 77-76 and took off (Gard got the full-time gig). They have lost just three times since, although UW didn't look good at all in its Big Ten Tournament-opening loss to a mediocre Nebraska team. The Badgers are coming off back-to-back Final Fours, including losing last year's national title game to Duke. Only 11 schools have ever reached three straight Final Fours, last UCLA from 2006-08. The Badgers have advanced to the Sweet 16 or beyond in four of the last five years.

Key trends: Pitt is 3-9 against the spread in its past 12 NCAA Tournament games. UW is 10-4 ATS in its past 14 games overall. The "over/under" has gone under in eight of Wisconsin's past nine games.

I'm leaning: If you want a point of comparison, Wisconsin did lose twice to Purdue. But I'll go Badgers here and under.

No. 11 Michigan vs. No. 6 Notre Dame (-3, 143)

East Region game from Brooklyn at 9:40 p.m. ET on CBS. The winner faces either No. 3 West Virginia or No. 14 Stephen F. Austin (the only team to not lose a conference game in the nation this season). Since 2011, five teams have won additional NCAA tourney games after winning in the First Four. Three of those reached at least the Sweet 16. I don't happen to think Michigan (23-12) deserved an at-large NCAA bid over the likes of Monmouth, Saint Mary's or San Diego State, but the Wolverines likely punched their ticket with an upset of Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. In Wednesday's First Four game against Tulsa, a team that 100 percent didn't belong in the Big Dance, the Wolverines won 67-62. Zak Irvin's 3-pointer with 53 seconds left put Michigan up 62-60 and UM sealed it from the free-throw line. Irvin co-led the team with 16 points, while Duncan Robinson finished with his first career double-double, scoring 13 points and adding 11 rebounds. Michigan lives and dies from deep and has set a school record by making 332 3-pointers and counting.

Michigan and Notre Dame won't play each other in football anymore, sadly, so we will have to settle for this. The Irish (21-11) finished tied for fifth in the ACC and beat Duke in overtime in the ACC Tournament opener. But then Notre Dame was utterly destroyed by North Carolina, 78-47. How will this team respond to that? Notre Dame is good enough to beat anyone -- it took out the likes of UNC, Louisville and Duke (again) in the regular season -- but also able to lose to any team. The Irish are a very good offensive team, ranking 10th nationally in offensive efficiency. Defense has been a problem. So really these two teams are a lot alike. Notre Dame is just 7-15 all-time vs. Michigan, but they haven't played since the 2006 NIT. The schools had several common opponents this season. Perhaps the most telling: the Irish beat Iowa on Nov. 27 and UM lost twice to the Hawkeyes.

Key trends: Michigan is 2-6 ATS in its past eight after a win. Notre Dame is 5-1-1 ATS in its past seven after a loss. The over is 5-2 in the Irish's past seven non-conference games.

I'm leaning: Love the over here. Take the Irish.

No. 11 Northern Iowa vs. No. 6 Texas (-4, 124.5)

West Region game from Oklahoma City at 9:50 p.m. ET on TBA. The winner gets either No. 3 Texas A&M or No. 14 Green Bay. To me, this might be the most interesting game of the day, but if you like high-scoring, up-and-down basketball this definitely isn't for you. UNI (22-12) plays at one of the slowest paces of the nation and tries to make it a half-court game. This total is the lowest of any first-round game. The Panthers as usual are one of the nation's top defensive teams, allowing only 62.9 points per game. And they are on fire. UNI was 10-11 overall and 2-6 in the Missouri Valley Conference following a 76-67 loss at Illinois State on Jan. 23. Northern Iowa has lost once since and beaten Wichita State twice in that stretch -- and you saw what Wichita did to Vanderbilt on Tuesday in the First Four. When will some Power 5 school hire UNI coach Ben Jacobson? His team has wins over No. 1 North Carolina and No. 5 Iowa State this season.

Shaka Smart was one of the best mid-major coaches like Jacobson while Smart was at VCU, but he landed the Texas gig this past offseason. Predictably, the Horns (20-12) are a much improved defensive team with Smart's "Havoc" pressure scheme. Center Prince Ibeh was named Big 12 Defensive Player of the year even though he averages only 18.1 points per game. He wasn't a starter to begin the season but moved into that role when fellow big man Cameron Ridley went down with a broken foot near the end of 2015. Ridley only returned in the Big 12 Tournament opening loss to Baylor. He played just two minutes in the loss. Smart is hoping Ridley, who averaged 11.8 points and 9.2 rebounds before going down, can play as many as 20 here. UT would be very dangerous if he's at full strength.

Key trends: UNI is 11-1-1 ATS in its past 13 games. Texas is 0-7 ATS in its past seven NCAA Tournament games. The under is 5-0 in UNI's past five.

I'm leaning: If you are wondering from a common opponent standpoint, Texas split with Iowa State and also beat North Carolina. That's a small total but I'll go under. Take UNI.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Tournament

Friday's games

Afternoon games

Dayton (+6.5) upset Syracuse 55-53 in second round 3-11 game couple years ago in Buffalo; Orange were 0-10 on arc that day. Syracuse won five of last six first-round games, but lost five of its last six games overall, losing last three, all by 5 or less points- they made 20-45 on arc in neutral court wins vs UConn, Texas A&M in November- they're shooting 36.1% on arc, are thin (#350 subs' minutes). Last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games. ACC teams are 14-2 SU in first round last three years; A-14 teams are 3-6, with Dayton two of three wins. Dayton split its last eight games, after a 21-3 start.

Lot of pressure on Villanova this weekend; last three times they were a #1 or 2 seed, they didn't get past first weekend; other two times, they were 9-seed and lost in first round. Wildcats won five of last six games overall, losing by hoop to Seton Hall in Big East tourney final. NC-Asheville tied for 3rd in Big South, but is 15-seed, first time since Winthrop in '08 that Big South team is higher than a 16. Big South teams are 2-4 vs spread since '08 n first round, after covering five in row before that. NC-Asheville won at Georgetown, lost by 28 at Texas A&M in its two top 100 games. Since 2008, #2-seeds who are favored by 16+ points are 6-12 vs spread in this round.

VCU lost first round games in OT last two years; this is Wade's first NCAA- he went 27-7 in SoCon at Chattanooga, but never got this far. Oregon State is in NCAAs for first time since 1990, when Gary Payton was the Beavers' star; now his son is OSU's star. Tinkle was 0-3 in NCAAs at Montana. OSU is 4-8 vs top 50 teams. Beavers split last eight games overall; freshman wing Tinkle (foot) is out. VCU is 7-5 in last 12 games after a 17-5 start; Rams Since 2009, Pac-12 teams are 23-6 in this round. Last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games. VCU is 1-6 vs top 60 teams this season.

Hawai'i is 11-2 in last 13 games; they're 10-2 on mainland after playing once on mainland before Jan 14. Rainbows lost to Oklahoma by 3, Texas Tech 8 in its only two top 70 games this year- best team they beat was Northern Iowa by 16 on Dec 22. Over last decade, Big West teams are 0-10 in non-play-in games (3-7 vs spread). Cal Bears split last four games, losing to Utah in OT in Pac-12 tourney; they've got one senior in talented, 8-man rotation. Pac-12 teams are 15-1 vs Big West this year (10-6 vs spread). Last 10 years, favorites are 23-17 vs spread in 4-13 first round games. Hawai'i is #48 in country in experience. PG Wallace is out for Cal-- he broke his hand in practice Wednesday.

Middle Tennessee is in NCAAs for first time since losing play-in game in '11; Blue Raiders won Alaskan Shootout, are 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 6-4 to VCU, South Dakota State. MTSU is 4th-worst (60.7%) foul shooting team in country. Michigan State got to Sweet 16 last four years, covering first round game all four times; Spartans started season with 82-55 win over FAU of C-USA- they're making 38.9% of 3's, #19 in country. Big 14 teams are 5-1 vs C-USA this year, 3-2 vs spread as faves. Since 2008, #2-seeds who are favored by 16+ points are 6-12 against the spread in this round.

Iowa lost six of its last eight games after 19-4 start; seven of those eight tilts were decided by 8 or less points. Hawkeyes lost to Dayton of A-14 on neutral floor in November. Iowa is experienced, starting junior and four seniors- they made 38.2% on arc (#32), just 33.1% in last six games. Temple is in NCAAs for first time in three years; Owls are 2-4 in last six first round games. Last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games; since 2010, Big 14 teams are 28-10 in this round- they're 3-4 vs A-14 teams, 2-2 vs spread when favored. AAC teams are 4-2 in this round the last two tournaments.

Cal-Bakersfield is in D-I March Madness for first time; they won three D-II national titles. Coach Barnes was last in tournament with Ole Miss in 2002, losing to UCLA by 22 in first round. Roadrunners lost by 16-35 vs top 100 teams (Arizona State and St Mary's); they've got #10 eFG% defense in country. Oklahoma lost in first round two of last three years (0-3 vs spreas); last time they covered in first round was 2009. Sooners are just 6-5 in last 11 games after 19-2 start; Big X is such a hard league- they are 8-0 vs teams outside top 90. WAC teams are 3-10 vs spread in this round, 0-5 the last five years. Since '07, #2-seeds who are favored by 16 or less points in the first round are 12-4 against the spread.

Maryland is 3-5 in last eight games after starting season 22-3; TV pundits are openly questioning team chemistry. Maryland took 93 3's last four games, more than when they were playing well. South Dakota State won six in row, 12 of last 14 games; they won 84-70 at Big 14's Minnesota Dec 8. Since '03, Terps are 6-0 in first round games; they beat Valpo by 3 LY, in first NCAA with Turgeon as coach. Jackrabbits will start three seniors, always a help. Since '03, Summit League teams are 1-12 in NCAAs, 2-9-2 vs spread; North Dakota State got the only win, two years ago in 5-12 game. Big 14 teams are only 3-3 vs Summit League this year; 2-3 against spread as a favorite.


Night games
Pitt coach Dixon is rumored to be leaving Pitt for either TCU or UNLV; Panthers are 4-7 in last 11 games overall, 7-1 in last 8 first round games. Wisconsin coach Gard got interim label lifted, is now the guy; Badgers are 8-1 in last nine first round games- they lost last two games after 11-1 run, slight red flag. Big 14 teams are 10-8 vs ACC teams this year; Pitt lost 70-56 at home to Purdue Dec 1, its only loss in 13 non-conference games; Wisconsin won in OT at Syracuse in its ACC game. Badgers don't defend 3-ball well, but Pitt is 16-64 on arc in last four games. The last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games.

SF Austin coach Underwood worked for Bob Huggins at Kansas State; Lumberjacks are 88-13 in Underwood era, 59-1 in Southland play. SFA upset VCU in '14 first round, lost to Utah by 7 LY- they force turnovers 25.9% of time. West Virginia 25.5%- they lead the country in that stat. Mountaineers won six of last seven games, can struggle on offense, but they've played schedule #5, SFA #317. 'jacks are #46 experience team, WV #170. Southland teams are 2-10 in first round games, 5-6-1 vs spread, 1-3 in last four non-play-in games. SFA opened season with 97-55 loss at Baylor; they got beat by 7 at Arizona State on other top 100 game.

Horizon teams are 0-4 in NCAA games since Butler bolted for greener pa$ture$ (1-3 vs spread). Green Bay coach Darner won D-II national title LY at Florida Southern; they've won eight of their last nine games, winning four days in row to win Horizon title. Texas A&M won eight of last nine games, losing in OT to Kentucky at SEC tourney; Aggies forced turnovers 20.7% of time in SEC games. Green Bay plays #6 tempo, has protected ball well (#27)- their offensive posessions are shortest in the country. SEC teams won both their games with Horizon teams this year, but didn't cover either one. Underdogs are 8-4 against the spread in 3-14 games last three years.

Oregon won its last eight games, 14 of last 16 to grab its #1 seed; Ducks won first round games last three years by 13-19-6 points. Last three years, underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in 1-16 games- the #1 seed in West is 10-4 vs spread last 14 years, 0-3 the last three. Holy Cross won its last five games after being 10-19 to that point; Crusaders run Princeton offense- they've made 37.8% on arc last five games, are just 32.8% for season. HC lost by 18-33 points in its two top 10 games this year (URI/Kansas). Patriot League clubs are 0-3 in this round last three years, losing by 12-40-41 points.

Xavier is in NCAAs for 10th time in 11 years; they're 6-2 in last 8 first round games- this is 1st time they've been higher than 6-seed under Mack. Xavier is 12-0 out of conference. Weber State is in NCAAs for just second time in last nine years; they lost 68-59 to Arizona in '14. Big Sky teams are 0-9 in NCAA last nine years (2-7 vs spread). Wildcats are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, splitting pair with South Dakota State. Since '07, #2-seeds who are favored by 16 or less points in the first round are 12-4 against the spread. Last two years, double digit first round favorites are 9-16 vs spread.

Notre Dame is in NCAAs for 6th time in seven years; they're 2-3 last five first round games, 3-4 in last seven games overall. Irish don't have much depth- PG Jackson played 33:00+ in 11 of last 12 games, 40:00+ in six of 12. Michigan used three starters 35:00+ in win over Tulsa Wednesday, a brickfest where teams were combined 9-40 on arc. Wolverines are 5-11 vs top 40 teams, beating Indiana/Notre Dame in last week, with loss to Purdue in between. Last four years, favorites are 11-4-1 vs spread in 6-11 games. ACC teams are 8-10 vs Big 14 teams this season, 5-5-1 vs spread when favored.

Northern Iowa won 12 of last 13 games, beat North Carolina very early in season, but somehow went 5-10 in skid during middle of year- they beat Iowa State of Big X 81-79 on neutral floor. Panthers won game in tourney LY after missing four years in row before that; UNI is #35 team in experience; they protect ball well, shoot 3's well. Texas is 4-5 in last nine games; they played hardest schedule in country. Longhorns might get big man Ridley back here; they play #301 pace, un-Smart-like, after he became famous with pressing style at VCU. Last four years, faves are 11-4-1 vs spread in 6-11 games. Big X.MVC slit four games this season with underdog covering all four games.

Cincinnati split last six games, losing last game in 4OTs to UConn is there a hangover from that? St Joe's scored 85 ppg in winning A-14 title; they're in NCAAs for just second time in eight years- they lost in OT to UConn in first round in 2014. Hawks protect the ball well, aren't deep, don't foul lot (#6 in not fouling). Cincinnati is 3-2 in first round games last five years; last four were decided by 6 or less points. Winner of this game has legit shot to knock off #1 Oregon Sunday. AAC/A-14 split eight games this season; Cincy beat GW/VCU, St Joe's beat Temple in OT. Since '03, dogs are 31-21 against the spread in 8-9 first round games.


Other tournaments
We'll do what we can with these minor tournaments; impossible to determine how interested players on these teams will be........


NIT
Virginia Tech needed OT to beat Princeton at home Wednesday; Hokies outscored Tigers 26-12 on foul line, but blew 11-point second half lead in game where Princeton was 11-39 on arc. I'll guarantee you this: BYU ain't going 11-39 on arc in Provo. Cougars made 13-30 in racing out to 51-30 halftime lead over UAB Wednesday- three starters played 35:00+. Tech used four starters 32:00+ in its win.


CBI
none


CIT
none.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Previews, Streaks, Tips, Notes

West Virginia vs Stephen F. Austin March 18, 8:10 EST

West Virginia (26-8, 20-11 ATS, 14-16-1 O/U) enters 'The Big Dance' having won/covered in six of its last seven outings. Mountaineers man-handled in their 81-71 Big 12 conference semi loss against Kansas are going to be extremely motivated to get the win in this contest. Although, Stephen F. Austin (27-5, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U) hits the hardwood ridding a 20 game win streak the Lumberjacks haven't faced anything close to the level of competition Mountaineers bring to the court.

Mountaineers a far superior team in terms of talent level and competition get the win/cover. Mountaineers are 15-6-1 ATS last 22 NCAA Tournament games, 11-5 ATS vs non-conference foes. Lumberjacks are 1-3 SU/ATS in NCAA Tournament play, 2-6 ATS vs non-conference opponents.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey

We are entering the final couple of weeks of the Gulfstream Park championship meeting, with the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) now just 15 days away.

That key Kentucky Derby prep will match up the two early favorites for the Run for the Roses, the undefeated Mohaymen and Nyquist squaring off in what should be an exciting preview of the first jewel of the Triple Crown.

Todd Pletcher has pretty much wrapped up the training title, currently with 54 winners from 217 starters, winning at a 25% clip with purse earnings of $2,870,962.

Jorge Navarro has won 38 races good for second in the standings and has the top win percentage at 29% among the top 20 trainers in wins.

Javier Castellano is the runway leader in the jockey standings with 102 winners from his 411 mounts, a win clip of 25%.

Luis Saez is having a solid meeting and is safely in second in the jockey standings with 77 winning mounts.

The Pick 6 was not hit again on Thursday and there could be $4 million up for grabs on Friday, but remember you only take the jackpot down if you have the lone winning ticket. If there are two winning tickets, there is a consolation payout and the rest of the pool carries over to the next day.

I am not crazy about the wager, and recommend only playing it on a mandatory payout day, which is scheduled for March 26.

If you are looking for a better way to pad your bankroll, play the Pick 5.


Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $35,000 (12:35 ET)
#1 Town Policy 2-1
#2 Sasstalk 8-1
#7 Behzad's Pride 5-2
#4 Mr Changue 7-2

Analysis: Town Policy dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fifth last out against $40,000 starter optional claimers last out in his first go against winners. He was a good looking maiden winner in his debut in the slop in his debut, winning by 10 1/4 lengths. He drops in for a $35,000 tag and looks like he still has some upside as he will catch a fast main track for the first time here.

Sasstalk broke his maiden last out for a $35,000 tag in his third career start, with the runner up and third place finisher exiting that race to graduate in their next starts. Now he comes back here off nearly a six-month break here for the Nicks barn that is 15% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. The colt has decent looking works over the main track here for his return.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4,7
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,4,7 / 1,2,4,5,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 10 Clm $16,000N2L (5:05 ET)
#5 Durant 12-1
#6 Like a Charm 3-1
#10 Pelagia 7-2
#8 Glass of Wine 4-1

Analysis: Durant dueled for the early lead through sharp fractions and weakened to finish ninth last out in her first start off a three-month layoff. She was a game second two back at Gulfstream Park West against $8,000 non-winners of two in her previous outing, beaten a half-length. She should be tighter second off the bench and is going to be a generous price.

Like a Charm exits the same race as our top pick and she came with a good late run to finish in the runner up spot. She has had a lot of tries to pick up her second win and tends to land for minor shares. She comes in here sharp but may play the bridesmaid again here. The barn also has been settling for minor shares, Gonzales picking up three wins and 15 seconds.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 8-1 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 5,6,8,10
TRI: 5,6 / 5,6,8,10 / 4,5,6,8,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #2 Sasstalk 8-1
R3: #1 Tizabella 10-1
R4: #5 Apres Ski 10-1
R5: #4 Candy Ride Cat 10-1
R7: #4 Belladini 8-1
R8: #5 Armando Big 8-1
R9: #1 He’s Got Talent 8-1
R10: #5 Durant 12-1
R11: #1 Boldgent 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 3:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 73 - Purse:$2500 - FILLIES & MARES NON-WINNERS $1,050 IN LAST 5 STARTS HORSES THAT HAVE RACED FOR A OPT. CLAIM $6,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 JK CHEERLEADER 5/2


# 1 M A JACKIE 7/2


# 3 MINDALE'S SMILE 3/1


JK CHEERLEADER has a great shot to take this race. Horoscope said take a chance today, this solid standardbred is as good as any to take a shot with. Worth looking at here on the basis of the rankings in the speed rating department alone. Unquestionably the class of the field with an average rating of 76. A nice selection. M A JACKIE - Could unquestionably dominate this group of animals given the 73 speed fig recorded in her last race. Surick has been on fire the past month, winning at a really good 21 percent. MINDALE'S SMILE - The group noted a strong showing out of this nice horse last time. Looking for a repeat of that to score.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Meadowlands

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 7:55 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$6000 - GSY AMATEUR

CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 KEYSTONE THOMAS 3/1


# 10 PINSTRIPE PROMISE 10/1


# 9 MR RIDGETAKER 12/1


KEYSTONE THOMAS has a very good shot to take this race. Take a look at this solid standardbred's average speed rating of 88 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a very nice bet. With a 88 average class number, this harness racer has one of the most solid class advantages in the group. Nice driver-conditioner, winning 36 percent of the time. Gets the edge as a terrific wager. PINSTRIPE PROMISE - This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at his better than average win figure. MR RIDGETAKER - This gelding getting the top prize wouldn't be impossible, a chance.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 STOURBRIDGE LION 8/1


# 1 ABLE BAKER CHARLIE 5/2


# 2 MAIL ORDER GROOM 3/1


I have to support STOURBRIDGE LION in here and is a decent value-based bet given the 8/1 line. Boasts strong Speed Figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group. This horse obviously likes the distance, going 5 - 22 in his races recently. Has a very strong shot in this competition if you like back class. ABLE BAKER CHARLIE - Ought to come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved speedily to the front end recently. This animal has to be in form coming back to the track so soon. MAIL ORDER GROOM - Magee has him trained solidly to break rapidly out of the starting gate. Has to be given a shot for this event if only for the very good Equibase speed fig put up in the last race.