Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Friday
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Take: UNDER 78.5 WINS
How many wins is Buck Showalter worth? Showalter is very high on my list of big league managers, and he’s about as good as it gets at coaxing the maximum from his teams. But as good as Buck is, he might have to be the best he’s ever been to push the 2016 Orioles to the right side of the .500 plateau.
This team is going to hit the baseball out of the park on a fairly regular basis. But that doesn’t automatically mean the Orioles will be an offensive juggernaut. No question there’s loads to like about Manny Machado and Adam Jones. Machado is a superstar. Jones is not quite at that level, but he’s a star to be sure. Chris Davis was a bad long-term signing in my estimation, but he’ll hit his 40 homers this season as long as he’s healthy. I like Matt Wieters behind the plate, Jonathan Schoop offers legit pop, and newcomer Hyun-soo Kim figures to be okay.
The potential problem areas for Baltimore as far as position play is concerned are at shortstop and perhaps right field. The latter is probably a platoon which the Birds could get by with. J.J. Hardy has seen better days at shortstop. He’s still serviceable or maybe even a little more defensively, although Hardy did appear to lose a step last season. But offensively, Hardy is on the verge of becoming a lineup liability.
The O’s appeared to have added a very valuable component in free agent Dexter Fowler. That’s a guy who was a really good fit for this offense, as he could have slid into the leadoff spot. That would have enabled the Orioles to move Machado to the 3-hole, which is where he belongs. I’m not sure what they will do now, but I know I don’t like Machado leading off. He’s going to likely get way too many AB’s with no one on, and that’s not a good thing for a guy so productive. Baltimore appeared to have locked up Fowler for three years at some pretty solid value. But he flipped at the last minute, signed a one-year deal with the Cubs, and that had to be a big mental blow to the Orioles.
The offense should still be okay, but the real problem area for this team is on the mound. This is not a good rotation, and that’s even with the addition of Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo’s best days are way behind him, and I don’t see him as anything more than a back of the rotation plodder. Kevin Gausman has big upside, but that’s only if and when he puts it all together, which he has not done yet. As for Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez and Miguel Gonzalez, the one word that popped into my mind first was…yikes.
I like the back end of the O’s pen with Darren O’Day and Zach Britton, and the setup guys might be decent. But getting to the bullpen with a lead might not be so easy, at least not on a frequent enough basis for this team to contend.
Maybe the worst news for the Orioles is where they live. The AL East could be a nasty sector this season. The Blue Jays might not be the best at run prevention, but that offense is insane. The Yankees have question marks but their bullpen could be among the best ever and that will really help their rotation. The Red Sox are clearly much improved, and while the Rays won’t blow out any scoreboards, they’re going to pitch and if you keep the other guys off the board, you get lots of wins.
It’s not that this is a bad baseball team, but I just don’t see the Orioles being able to match up with their divisional brethren for 162 games. Someone will have to finish last here, and I think it’s going to be Baltimore. With that in mind, I’m playing the Under 78.5 wins option on the 2016 Orioles.
Bonus Play Friday
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Take: UNDER 78.5 WINS
How many wins is Buck Showalter worth? Showalter is very high on my list of big league managers, and he’s about as good as it gets at coaxing the maximum from his teams. But as good as Buck is, he might have to be the best he’s ever been to push the 2016 Orioles to the right side of the .500 plateau.
This team is going to hit the baseball out of the park on a fairly regular basis. But that doesn’t automatically mean the Orioles will be an offensive juggernaut. No question there’s loads to like about Manny Machado and Adam Jones. Machado is a superstar. Jones is not quite at that level, but he’s a star to be sure. Chris Davis was a bad long-term signing in my estimation, but he’ll hit his 40 homers this season as long as he’s healthy. I like Matt Wieters behind the plate, Jonathan Schoop offers legit pop, and newcomer Hyun-soo Kim figures to be okay.
The potential problem areas for Baltimore as far as position play is concerned are at shortstop and perhaps right field. The latter is probably a platoon which the Birds could get by with. J.J. Hardy has seen better days at shortstop. He’s still serviceable or maybe even a little more defensively, although Hardy did appear to lose a step last season. But offensively, Hardy is on the verge of becoming a lineup liability.
The O’s appeared to have added a very valuable component in free agent Dexter Fowler. That’s a guy who was a really good fit for this offense, as he could have slid into the leadoff spot. That would have enabled the Orioles to move Machado to the 3-hole, which is where he belongs. I’m not sure what they will do now, but I know I don’t like Machado leading off. He’s going to likely get way too many AB’s with no one on, and that’s not a good thing for a guy so productive. Baltimore appeared to have locked up Fowler for three years at some pretty solid value. But he flipped at the last minute, signed a one-year deal with the Cubs, and that had to be a big mental blow to the Orioles.
The offense should still be okay, but the real problem area for this team is on the mound. This is not a good rotation, and that’s even with the addition of Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo’s best days are way behind him, and I don’t see him as anything more than a back of the rotation plodder. Kevin Gausman has big upside, but that’s only if and when he puts it all together, which he has not done yet. As for Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez and Miguel Gonzalez, the one word that popped into my mind first was…yikes.
I like the back end of the O’s pen with Darren O’Day and Zach Britton, and the setup guys might be decent. But getting to the bullpen with a lead might not be so easy, at least not on a frequent enough basis for this team to contend.
Maybe the worst news for the Orioles is where they live. The AL East could be a nasty sector this season. The Blue Jays might not be the best at run prevention, but that offense is insane. The Yankees have question marks but their bullpen could be among the best ever and that will really help their rotation. The Red Sox are clearly much improved, and while the Rays won’t blow out any scoreboards, they’re going to pitch and if you keep the other guys off the board, you get lots of wins.
It’s not that this is a bad baseball team, but I just don’t see the Orioles being able to match up with their divisional brethren for 162 games. Someone will have to finish last here, and I think it’s going to be Baltimore. With that in mind, I’m playing the Under 78.5 wins option on the 2016 Orioles.
