SPORTS WAGERS
RICHMOND +5½ over VCU
The VCU Rams have been on the national radar after six straight NCAA Tournament appearances, including the Final Four in 2011. One could argue the Rams are the poster boys for mid-major college programs, but their high profile has them overvalued nearly every time they play. Casual bettors may not have heard of many of their opponents but they know who VCU is. The Rams are again rolling through their conference schedule with an 11-2 record but with their work nearly done, the Rams don't have to kill themselves the rest of the way.
The Richmond Spiders are just two games back of the Rams in the Atlantic 10 standings but an at-large bid by way of a conference championship looks to be their only way into The Tournament. Tonight the Spiders play their biggest game of the season against their biggest rivals in-front of a national audience, as this game with VCU will be carried on ESPN2. Being on ESPN is a big deal for any school but for a mid-major program like Richmond, it might as well be the Super Bowl. A great example of this was BYU at Pepperdine just eight days ago. Pepperdine won outright, 99-83 as a nine-point dog. While it's just one game, it is an example of how a home dog can rise up when the national cameras are rolling. While many teams rely on the three-point shot, the Spiders are actually ranked 13th nationally in two-point shooting percentage (55.4%). Richmond moves the ball well too, as its 62.3% assist per fields goals made is 14th in the country. The Spiders have dropped four straight to VCU over the last two seasons but that only increases the points being offered here and thus, the value. The Spiders are in good form by winning four of their last six including three straight at home. They also figure to be the more determined and focused group here, as the Rams wait for bigger and better things.
STANFORD +135 over California
The California Golden Bears had their five-game win streak ended by #6 Arizona on Sunday. While there's no shame in losing to a ranked team on the road, that result is not going to help catapult Cal into NCAA Tournament contention. The Golden Bears are a bubble team in search of signature wins. Cal has had five opportunities to face ranked competition this season, but failed to cash in on any of those opportunities. The Golden Bears have one chance left before the conference tournament to make an impression on the Selection Committee, which is at home against #8 Oregon next Wednesday, which has to be at the very least in the back of their minds and maybe the front.
It would be understatement to declare that the Golden Bears and the Cardinal have no love lost. The feud between these institutions is one of the most personal and bitter rivalries in all of college sports. We have said it before and we will say it again, in rivalry games you can expect the unexpected. In the previous two fixtures that transpired in Palo Alto, Stanford was the victor. As long as Coach Dawkins is at the helm for Stanford, he brings a breadth of expertise and practical experience of how to win at high levels. It is worth noting that the Cardinal got off to a red-hot start this year when they began their campaign with a 6-1 record. Along the way, Stanford beat some reputable basketball teams, including Weber State, Seton Hall and Colorado State who have emerged as the top dog in the Mountain West. Since that start, the Cardinal has gone 6-12 and thus depleted their stock in the process so now would be the time to buy low. Though the Cardinal have played .333 ball, they demonstrated a propensity to come in under lofty numbers against some excellent basketball teams, as they are 3-0 ATS against UCLA, Arizona and Kansas. Additionally, this is a basketball team responsible for an outright home victory against Utah.
The Cardinal are just 4-9 in conference play this season. Their only shot at The Big Dance will be through the Pac 12 tournament but there is still some fun to had before the end of the regular season. The Cardinal are in a great position to spoil the tournament hopes of their conference brethren on the bubble. Stanford has won just one of their last four games. On paper it doesn't look very good but a closer look shows the Cardinal are playing in close games against quality competition. Two games ago Stanford was tied 67-67 at #6 Arizona with 1:55 remaining, but the Cardinal didn't hit another basket in a 7-point loss. Last time out, Stanford held a 69-68 lead at Arizona State with 37 seconds left, but again gave up seven straight points to lose another heartbreaker. While the market sees defeats, we see a well-coached team that is a minor tweak or two away from pulling off some upsets as opposed to a team that is losing all the time. The kicker here is once again based on the bitter hate these two have for one another and in that regard, Stanford has nothing to lose whatsoever but they can achieve great satisfaction from being the team that puts the Golden Bears on the outside of the bubble looking in. That’s huge motivation and reason enough to get behind this undervalued squad taking back a price at home.