Woodbine Harness: Friday 12/23 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale
DRF
Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 12 – Mandatory Jackpot Hi Five Payout ($548,396.96 Carryover)
PICK 5: 2,3,8/2,3,4/2,6/6/2,6,10 = $10.80
EARLY PICK 4: 6/2,6,10/1,2,3,7/2,4,6,7 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 1,2,4/1,2,4,7/8,9/3,4 = $48
MEET STATS: 61 - 238 / $367.30 BEST BETS: 9 - 23 / $30.30
SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 22 / $28.80
Best Bet: ARTISTIC MADISON (4th)
Spot Play: WANDA BAYAMA (11th)
Race 1
(8) ELDORADO OF GOLD S has been hinting a better form in his last two starts. Perhaps red-hot driver McNair sends him this time vs. a weaker group. (2) LETS LEAVEM was first up against a tough winner that came right back and won in the top class at London on Tuesday; using. (3) STRIKNGLYIMPRESSIVE has good early speed on her best day. Maybe she will improve for Menary here in her first start off a claim. (5) MUSICAL SPELL figures to take another smaller share here.
Race 2
(4) THREEDEE DELIGHT A shows a winning 1:51 4/5 mile in Australia in October, so she obviously has some ability. She gets Lasix and goes for the top trainer in her North American debut; top call. (3) KILLEAN FINALE gets the same drive every time, but it has been working out most times. She's hard to love at a short price knowing she is unlikely to leave the pylons, but she should be used in the Pick 5. (2) FOREVER LIZA is another must-use off her strong comeback race. (6) DAZZLING ROCKETTE should motor home again from far back for a smaller share.
Race 3
(6) PRESCOTTS HOPE's 53 2/5 back 1/2 last week shows he has come all the way back to top form. I'll give him a slight nod here and hope he is a decent price. (2) NICKLE BAG couldn't gain on the rim last time. Perhaps from this post, he will get away first or second which would give him a much better chance. (3) ALEXAS JACKPOT tired after setting some serious splits. He can be closer if he takes a breather at some point. (1) AMERICAN VIRGIN has been closing quickly in most starts, but, he has never won in this class. I will take a stand against on the win end here and in the Pick 5.
Race 4
(6) ARTISTIC MADISON appears to have finally come back to her best form after a lean year of racing. If that is so, this slight step up won't be an issue at all. (4) SING LIKE AN ANGEL takes a slight drop and moves inside which should help her. (2) TIMMYLYNN went a big trip off a five-week break to beat the choice last time. She must be considered for multi-race bets. (1) YOUR MY SECRET was on too much non-advancing cover last time but she did well to close for 2nd; minor share predicted.
Race 5
(10) KIWI FOCUS N beat better last start now she gets into this class on earnings. Only the 10-hole can get her beat, but I'm betting it won't. (6) COLLECTIVE WISDOM had sharp speed early and late in her winning mile on December 9th; using. (2) KAYS SHADOW woke up in a big way last time. She may find the top two tough here; minor award predicted. (7) SR BEACH BABE steps up but she is in excellent form and she can take a share here.
Race 6
(2) JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL was very sharp early last time then took a shuffle and re-emerged late to hit the board. She could take this group all the way. (1) ABC WINNER closed mildly as the pace wasn't slowing much in the final 1/4 last week. He could get a much better pace setup for his late charge here. (7) SMOOTHER RIDE took lots of action last time then blew up at the start. He can make amends here if he behaves. (3) FORK is worth a look for the exotics on the class drop. Note last time he dropped to a similar level he won.
Race 7
(2) MACH CODE fits well here and he should be prominent throughout so long as missing a weak doesn't dull his speed any. (4) PISTON BROKE roared past late as the pace slowed last time. This step up isn't great for the classy veteran. Toss him on your Pick 4 tickets. (6) VEGAS ROCKS tried leaving last time but several others had the same idea. He could have better luck with that strategy here leaving from the best post; beware. (7) DAYLIGHT RUSH is an obvious speed threat and he is tough to pass if he gets a breather.
Race 8
(4) VOODOO CHARM goes for Cullen here following a private sale. Expect aggression from the new owner/trainer/driver. (1) MAPLELEA finally showed some of her patented kick last time by firing a 27 1/5 kicker. Maybe now is the time to board her bandwagon. (2) BERNADETTE was hung out too long to make front and paid for it late. She could get a much better trip here at a square price. (9) MISS COCO LUCK fits this class well but the outer post likely dooms her to a smaller share.
Race 9
(7) DOTTIE flew home last week to win in this class at a big price. Leaving from a better post here and facing similar, I will give her the nod to repeat. (1) ADO DUHARAS was shuffled out of the race but he finished quickly. He figures here. (2) MACHO MASS raced well despite enduring a long trip last time and he is another that could take this leg of the Pick 4. (4) MAJOR MUSCLE is the main speed threat leaving from a better post. He could better this prediction.
Race 10
(9) SANDBETWEENURTOES doesn't seem bothered by missing time so I'll give her the nod here despite her having missed three weeks. (8) WAASMULA looks like the main danger and she could make the choice work hard early if both have the idea to blast off the gate. (7) SAYITALL BB should be passing horses late for a share here. (5) MS MAC N CHEESE is another that figures to take a smaller share as has been her custom most of the year.
Race 11
(3) WANDA BAYAMA follows the exact same script as last December when she shipped in from Ottawa and changed trainers from Filion to Larocque. She jogged in 1:52 4/5 in her first start for the new conditioner then so I'll give her the top call here. (4) NEFERTITI BLUECHIP appears to have been facing better in New York. She figures here. (7) AINSLEYNOELLE can stick around for another smaller share here. (6) THREE DREAMS should be rallying again and she should make the Super, at least.
Race 12
(5) SHADOW MARGEAUX raced huge on the rim first up last week and he would have won if he could have fished cover out. I think he should find a live helmet to follow here, slight nod. (3) YS LOTUS should show more making his second start in this class, moving inside and with the Allard barn heating up of late. (4) ELECTRIC WESTERN should make the High-5 if he can come up with another sub-28 kicker. (8) PAPARAZZI HANOVER will be one of the main speed threats for a driver/trainer that has been hot here the past few cards. (6) THE REV went a long trip last week but kept coming. He is rounding into form and he does his best work in the winter.
