Friday 12/18/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #7 - Post: 3:24pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 GEAR JAMMIN JOHNNY (ML=8/1)
#7 JARROD'S COMMANDO (ML=2/1)


GEAR JAMMIN JOHNNY - You always have to be on the prowl for money generating jock/trainer combinations; we have an instance right here. As the only speed freak in the race, I expect this gelding to be long gone. JARROD'S COMMANDO - Gelding got a healthy speed rating last time he tried this distance. That number would be good enough to win today. This horse coming off a good performance in the last thirty days is a win candidate in my book. This equine brings in a lot of cash per start. Tops in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 GO DOUG GO (ML=3/1), #8 NO WAY R J (ML=9/2), #1 DECIDING MOMENT (ML=5/1),

GO DOUG GO - Unlikely for this thoroughbred to do much running with no recent success in a short distance affair. NO WAY R J - This entrant has no victories at Tampa Bay Downs. Notched a mediocre rating last time out in a $5,000 Claiming race on November 25th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig. DECIDING MOMENT - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint affairs recently. Unlikely to see him doing it this time around either. Registered a pedestrian speed figure last race out in a $6,250 Claiming race on November 6th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that number.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #4 GEAR JAMMIN JOHNNY on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #1 - Post: 5:00pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $37,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 GOOFY LUCY (ML=8/1)
#10 REINE DES ANIMAUX (ML=7/2)
#3 CANDY ASSAY (ML=4/1)


GOOFY LUCY - Note that although this filly finished 2nd in her last race, she was well in front of the third place horse. This is a classic positive angle. Rode this thoroughbred on Nov 30th and Murrill is right back in the irons today. This filly is in nice form. Ended up second on November 30th. You have to really like that latest race fig, 59, which is the highest most recent race speed rating of this field. This filly has plenty of ability on the grass. Could be long gone by the time they come out of the near turn. REINE DES ANIMAUX - This filly is in good form, having run a good race on Nov 29th, finishing third. Rider hops right back aloft after getting to know the thoroughbred by riding in the last race. That's always a positive sign. I always like to see a filly getting Lasix for the second time. This one fits the bill. CANDY ASSAY - This filly is in good physical condition. Ended up third on November 19th. I think that the addition of blinkers today will keep her mind on the race at hand.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 ZAPLICIOUS (ML=9/2), #5 THE THRILL IS ON (ML=6/1), #1 FIRST REUNION (ML=6/1),

ZAPLICIOUS - This racer hasn't had nary a work after running so well on November 29th. THE THRILL IS ON - Doesn't seem to be worth 6/1 this time. Pass on her this time. FIRST REUNION - Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any sort of closing response on November 29th. Mediocre speed fig in the last race at Fair Grounds at 1 mile. Don't believe this entrant will improve too much in today's event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #8 GOOFY LUCY to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,8,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,8,10] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[3,8,10] with [3,8,10] with [1,3,5,8,10] with [1,3,5,8,10] Total Cost: $36

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #2 - AQUEDUCT - 12:50 PM EASTERN POST

5½ FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $10,000.00 CLAIMING $20,000.00 PURSE

#2 MIDNIGHT CHAMPAGNE
#4 KELLY'S PRIZE
#6 LITTLE GIDDING
#5 SWAKOPMUND

#2 MIDNIGHT CHAMPAGNE takes a class drop (-6) this afternoon, has exceptional early speed abilities to compliment for this inner track sprint, and has produced a quartet of "POWER RUNS" facing better company in her last five outings, hitting the board in three, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 5th race back. #4 KELLY'S PRIZE, an 8-1 shot, has turned three "POWER RUNS" in her respective last five respective "adventures," including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing better company (+7) in her 5th race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Friday 12/18 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $15,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (52 - 88 / $182.40): FRENCH MAID (2nd)

Spot Play: IT’SASWAN (5th)


Race 1

(7) SHAKEITTOTHEMOON has room to improve against a really weak field. (4) PEACELOVEPACE faces a much softer bunch and will be used aggressively; threat. (1) THEDAYYOUHAVEMADE look to be in line for a much better trip with the best post.

Race 2

(2) FRENCH MAID should be much closer turning for home and has shown a nice late burst in two straight. (5) LOLA GRAM finally gets a much better starting post; fires late. (7) SHAWNEE LAW had been facing tougher competition in Indiana and fits in with this bunch nicely.

Race 3

(5) FOX VALLEY PIPA takes a huge drop down in for a tag and should offer the best price of the contenders. (9) MOON BAY DANCER will look to make it three straight at this level; fires early. (4) HOOSIERS FANTASY has been racing gamely but will need more to hit the top spot.

Race 4

(6) BIG FOOTED BUTCH was a pocket trip winner last out getting up late. The lightly raced pacer has plenty of room to move forward. (5) PARKLANE INDY gelding was an impressive winner in his last start; threat. (2) MACHO BURBON when the 3-year-old stays pacing he owns a decent brush; use caution.

Race 5

(10) IT'SASWAN is the sleeper in the race coming off a really nice qualifier. The filly has been off a month but owns a win at this track and will offer a big price. (1) ALL ABOUT COWBOYS freshman trotter finished with a lot of interest last start and has upside. (8) TAYLOR TOT filly trotter owns ability and picks up a good driver change.

Race 6

(6) PRETTY PLACE mare drops down a notch off a big effort against better. If the 7-year-old had room in the stretch she would have won for fun. (1) FOX VALLEY BROOKE filly had to need her last start and should be primed for a better effort; driver's choice. (10) WESTERN DAME will offer good value and just needs to find a way into the race.

Race 7

(6) CERTAINLY has been trotting up a storm late and was the top driver's choice. (10) VIN looked like a different horse last week drawing off impressively. The 4-year-old owns a powerful brush but needs to find a way into the race. (7) MARLEY'S GUY came up empty last week after racing gamely against better; use underneath.

Race 8

In a wide open and evenly matched race, (3) LASTDUKESTANDING will offer a big price and had been facing better in Indiana. (6) LET'S NOT DWELL owns wins at this level; versatile. (2) RICKY TIDWELL comes off a big win against better but could need a start having been off five weeks.

Race 9

(1) MONTERO BLUE CHIP drops down in class and will be used aggressively from the best post. (5) EXTRAVAGANT ART is another dropper in the race and was the driver's choice; threat. (3) REJOICEANDBEGLAD has just been racing evenly but faces slightly weaker.

Race 10

In a tough race to gauge, (9) CRUEL GIRL will offer a fair price and just needs a competent drive for a piece. (5) EXCELERATED SPEED was the driver's choice and should be much closer turning for home. (2) LOVETHEWAYYOULOOK filly has a ton of upside but probably needs a start.

Race 11

(9) HELLO MY DREAM at one time the pacing mare would have been a heavy favorite against this group. The 4-year-old might be back to her old self off a nice confidence-building score. (4) SEXY CARD SHARK was an easy winner last week against weaker; threat. (8) ADDIE ROSE has been knocking on the door and could use a fast pace to close into for her best chance.

Race 12

(7) URAWOMANIZER is just now back in racing shape off a long layoff. The 6-year-old gelding finds a field full of question marks. (3) PILLAGE AND BURN has lacked stamina late in recent but might be up to the task against this group. (2) TIM'S FINALE raced well from a tough spot last week and should be in line for a much better trip.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Friday 12/18 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 3,6,7/2,7,8/1,4/2,3,5/1,4,7 = $32.40

EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,5/1,4,7/5,6,7/1,6,9 = $81

LATE PICK 4: 3,4/3,5,6/1,4,5,6/7,9 = $48

Best Bet: BAD AS LEADER (8th)

Spot Play: DOUBLE OLIVES (5th)


Race 1

(3) SHEZ A GOLD MINE faced easier last week and converted by leaving fast and coming on again late. She stands a good chance of doubling up here. (6) GOTTALOTTAGO has compiled a good record down south and goes for solid connections here. She is the main danger. (7) TWIN B SWEETHEART moved into Auciello's barn and out of claimers coming off a layoff which is probably a good sign.

Race 2

(2) LATOKA took a better field a long way on the lead but couldn't repel the pocket-sitting class dropper late. He could take these coast-to-coast. (7) HUBBY NUMBER ONE was a good 4th vs. better now drops back into a claimer and is a top contender here. (8) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT moved first up into the teeth of a 28 1/5 final 1/4 which didn't work out very well. He could upset these with a trip.

Race 3

(1) BETIT TO GETIT is the hottest racehorse on the grounds and once again you will likely get a square price on her here; slight nod. (4) SANDBETWEENURTOES has been facing the best in North America and was a narrow 2nd here in the Breeders Crown in October. She is worth trying to beat at a tiny price having missed 4 weeks action. (3) MARLEE B is always around at the payoff but needs a perfectly-timed drive to get the job done.

Race 4

(3) MISCHIEVIOUSGIRLS only makes this class on the 3YO earnings allowance and should be right there vs. this group. (5) SHOW SOME LEG was well-driven to win last week, making the decisive move at the right point of the mile. She fits well here. (2) AINSLEYNOELLE got shuffled out of a chance to win last week and is a threat here.

Race 5

(4) DOUBLE OLIVES suffered a horrible trip on the rim in the Autumn series final. Starting from the inside gives her a better chance at working out a winning trip here. (7) WANDA BAYAMA changed barns and took a new life's mark in the opening leg of this series last week. She's the one to knock off here. (1) MUCH ADOO was challenged hard in the third 1/4 last week and survived the battle only to lose the war. She is a formidable rival here again.

Race 6

(5) TRUE DAY DREAM faced much better in her first start over Woodbine which also came after a five-week break. She should be prominent throughout here. (6) TORNADO TIM also faces easier and could pop at a square price. (7) OLE JACK MAGIC disappointed last week and is capable of a much better showing.

Race 7

(6) SOUTHWIND GEISHA has faced tougher recently and should be heard from here. (1) ADAYMER SEELSTER should get a decent trip starting from the inside here and if she can latch onto some decent cover could get the job done. (9) DAZZLE N DELIGHT has raced much better in her last two starts and is in with a shot here in a field with seemingly few contenders.

Race 8

(3) BAD AS LEADER was a sharp maiden-breaker last week, displaying good speed both early and late in the mile. These aren't much tougher. Call to repeat. (4) BOOZER BRUISER was hard used twice last week and paid the price late. A slightly easier trip puts her right there on the wire. (1) BARBARAS SHADOW got up late last time to break her maiden but will need to drop a couple of seconds to take this.

Race 9

(3) REGAL LUCK drops in class here and should get an aggressive steer from Christoforou. (6) MAPPOS MOENHAY steps up off a sharp win and must be respected. (5) PUTMEINTOGO will likely get pounded at the windows again here but didn't look great on the track last week. Proceed with caution.

Race 10

(4) TOTAL LEE pressed a very fast pace last week and didn't fold late; slight nod in a contentious dash. (1) BROOKDALE SHADOW drops slightly and should be up on or near the pace throughout. (6) MARQUISE DE SARAH has hit her best stride and is another that could take this.

Race 11

(7) D GS PESQUERO drops to the lowest conditioned class here and Drury will no doubt be gunning early with her. (9) J HIGH broke her lengthy losing streak in spectacular fashion last week and is the one to fend off late. (2) WILDCAT BEAUTY should get a slice on the class drop here. (3) BADLYINCLINED was a decent third to a dominant winner last week and can share here. (10) CALL ME MAYBE can pass many of these late and hit the bottom rung of the Super or High-5 at a huge price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Friday 12/18 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 5 - $7,181 Jackpot Super High Five Carryover

Race 14 - $34,296 Jackpot Super High Five Carryover

MEET STATS: 44 - 129 / $244.00 BEST BETS: 4 - 10 / $13.20

Best Bet: NOT BEFORE EIGHT (7th)

Spot Play: TIRADE HANOVER (8th)


Race 1

(9) RILEY'S DREAM comes off a decent effort and figures prominently versus an abysmal field. (5) ROSE RUN QUICKLEY had some success on the bigger track at Hoosier and could enjoy the switch here from Yonkers. (2) HERCU LINDY righted the ship with hobbles last time. Let's see how he does on the bigger track. (10) ELUSIVE ACTION raced okay off the bench but drew poorly.

Race 2

(7) B YOYO took a bit of a shuffle before the stretch which cost him the top spot last time. Now he gets to drop down and should roll. (2) COUSIN EDDIE raced well in his first start for this barn. (5) MONTALBANO BI raced well off the bench and figures to be forwardly placed. (3) CARNEGIE has won here in the past; always a plus.

Race 3

(1) FINISH LINE went a big mile with hobbles and Gingras added. If he trots this field will be chasing him for second money. (8) NATURAL KEMP has been consistent but lacks that killer instinct late in the mile. (3) CLIFTON BEACH has been racing well out of town and deserves some consideration. (6) HOT START & (7) EASTON ROAD are potential players if they mind their manners.

Race 4

(8) ALLERAGE STAR gets some serious class relief and has the early zip to take charge. (3) KARETS starts from a better post this time. Four-year-old just sneaks under the earnings condition. (9) GET TO DOIN IT sports a strong win record gained mostly on fair tracks; gets tested tonight.

Race 5

(6) UF DRAGON'S QUEEN lured Gingras off a Burke horse in a conditioned race, which is something you don't see every day. Classy mare raced well from a tough post at Yonkers a week ago and figures to be a major player in starts 47 on the year. (9) ICOMMANDMYSPIRIT was a sharp winner last time and has the talent to step up in class. (8) SPIRIT OF DESIRE is a capable mare on her best days. (2) EXOTIC BEACH is in a better spot this week; using underneath.

Race 6

(6) DETROIT RAPPER technically steps up in class but this field doesn't look that imposing. If he sits mid-pack, this gelding can power past late. (4) TWISTED PRETZEL ships down in good form for Kyle Spagnola and should be on or near the lead. (10) LINDY'S TRU GRIT is the best horse in the race, but is saddled with post 10 after a two month break; mixed feelings. (7) MARCH AWARENESS has been racing well for Burke; exotics must.

Race 7

(5) NOT BEFORE EIGHT stormed home from last with a full head of steam last week and looks primed for a huge effort this week. (4) SHE'S HEAVENLY comes off a good try and should be near the front again. (3) OK HALLELUJAH was racing well at Saratoga and shows success on big tracks in Canada.

Race 8

(3) TIRADE HANOVER took a shot on the rim last time and trotted home in a solid 27 3/5 while chasing a very good mare that set a soft pace. This guy has shown he can pop a big mile at times and I believe he is sitting on one right now. (7) OPULENT YANKEE is inching closer to top form. If he wasn't drawn outside two potential early speed horses I'd be on board. (5) WAITING ON A WOMAN is hard to fault on paper, though she came up a bit tired in the stretch last time. (9) CROSBYS CLAM BAKE wouldn't be a shock but has his work cut out for him from post nine.

Race 9

(9) PURITY couldn't have looked any better while winning in-hand last Friday. The outside post and class rise is a concern, but I'm sticking with this gal. (2) EXHILARATED is seemingly closing every week but not fast enough. She fits nicely and has a good post to work with. (7) COVER MODEL swept the field last time. This spot is tougher but the filly could be up to the task.

Race 10

(7) DANISH DURANGO added hobbles last time and kept his act together the entire mile. Although he seems to stay at the same level, this field is softer and he should have every chance. (5) CINCINNATI MISS is in fine form and even shows some good lines at Woodbine. (9) NORTHERN GRACE won going away upon arrival from Philly and is an obvious contender again. (1) DREAM ROCKER would be no surprise in the top spot given a decent trip.

Race 11

In a field with plenty of question marks, I'll be spreading in the pick four. (3) BORN TO FIGHT was flat last time at Philly but had been facing tougher foes in all of his previous starts; long shot chance. (8) ALTERNAT THURSDAYS hails from the Spagnola barn and has some early speed in his reserves. (11) BASTILLE was a winner at this level two starts back. (6) COIN COLLECTOR looks like a mare that may move up on the big track.

Race 12

(4) JANIE BAY raced very well at Freehold while just missing behind a heavy chalk that got away with reasonable fractions. This looks like it could be her week to take a picture. (1) LIZZIE'S DREAM gets some needed post relief and should get aggressive in this spot. (9) CANTUS HANOVER raced a bit better in her second start for Burke.

Race 13

(2) CAPRICCIO HANOVER moves into a barn that does rather well with trotters. Eight-year-old has a touch of class and faces a mostly formless group. (9) P L EUREKA was a decent third showing early speed at this level back in November. (1) RUDDY RUSTY hasn't cared for the 1-1/4 races at Yonkers and his other recent starts were from post eight at Saratoga. Don't be shocked if he wakes up with a big mile.

Race 14

(8) UPFRONT BILLY gets some serious class relief and typically races very well at this level. I'd expect nothing short of a top effort at a short price. (2) IN NOMINE PATRI also drops down and driver/trainer Joe Hanney figures to be forwardly placed with the veteran gelding. (4) RAISE THE CURTAIN has been fairly consistent all year; maybe. (10) MUSCLES AND SPICE has some early speed and seems worth at least a look in the post parade.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Friday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (1st) O K by Me, 5-1
(5th) Irish Heroine, 3-1

Charles Town (3rd) Jaded Emperor, 4-1
(8th) Garen, 3-1


Delta Downs (3rd) Tricky Cajun, 4-1
(7th) Proper Empire, 9-2


Fair Grounds (1st) Reine des Animaux, 7-2
(4th) Moon Gate Warrior, 6-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Starship Sassy, 6-1
(7th) Woodford Pine, 5-1


Hawthorne (3rd) Arcade, 7-2
(8th) Ya Mon, 9-2


Laurel Park (5th) Came Back, 9-2
(7th) Abiding Star, 4-1


Los Alamitos (6th) Who Said Lucky, 7-2
(8th) Backstreet Boss, 8-1


Penn National (6th) Six Tonsafun, 7-2
(8th) Sunny Mills, 6-1

Sunland Park (4th) Musical Arts, 3-1
(6th) Justa Sunday Dream, 5-1


Tampa Bay Downs (6th) She's Roman, 10-1
(10th) Adorabold, 7-2


Turfway Park (2nd) Thunder Wit, 3-1
(5th) Stormin Greeley, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's six-pack

-- Rams 31, Bucs 23-- Best game Rams' offense has played in years.

-- Both Texas A&M QBs are transferring; not sure I've ever heard of a team losing both its top two QBs that way- they must've had a lot of fun together this year.

-- Lebron James crashed into a woman on sidelines last night; woman was carted off on a stretcher-- turns out it was the wife of golfer Jason Day.

-- When they show football stats, I'd like to see total plays run-- more important than time of possession, thats for sure.

-- Tournament of Roses parade cost $9.4M to put on LY, took in $7.4M, Guy who is the executvie director of the parade makes $365,141. The football game makes so much money it more than covers the expenses for the parade.

-- Yadier Molina had a second surgery on his injured thumb, is expected to miss most of spring training.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Friday

547 EASTERN KENTUCKY @ 548 EAST TENNESSEE STATE 7:00 PM

Take: ETSU -4

The prevailing thought with college basketball shortening the shot clock to 30 seconds seemed to mostly be that this would benefit better offensive teams. That made sense as teams with better attacks might not need as much time to set up good shots.

But theory and reality don’t always run hand in hand. I can’t say that this is going to definitely continue, but off what I’ve seen in the early going, it’s my judgement that it’s the better defensive teams that are enjoying more success with the shorter shot clock.

What I’m trying to do is focus on defensively superior teams playing at home, particularly when matched up with a poor defensive opponent. Obviously, any results to date are about as small sample as it gets, so it’s too soon to draw any concrete conclusions. But I think there’s a logical rationale in play here, and I’ll use this game as an example.

Eastern Kentucky is a team that loves to play fast and they’ve been able to have things mostly their own way playing at home. On the road, it’s been a different story for the Colonels. They’ve been forced out of their comfort zone and their really poor transition defense has been exploited.

East Tennessee State isn’t really a whole lot better defensively and opposition teams are shooting it really well against the Buccaneers. But ETSU is likely going to do whatever they can do to slow the tempo in this matchup, and we’ve already seen that doing so is not something that Eastern Kentucky handles especially well.

I won’t be surprised to see some dog money here. A quick glance at some base stats would seem to indicate that Eastern Kentucky is the better team by a slim margin. I don’t mind at all that ETSU is favored by as much as they are, as I think we could be looking at a somewhat square dog here with the Colonels. If the defense first theory holds up, I should have a decent shot at cashing a ticket tonight with East Tennessee State.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Friday, Dec. 18, 2015 10:35 PM EST

(523) MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS (524) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Take: Over the total

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Friday, December 18, 2015 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Rockets and the Milwaukee Bucks and the Golden State Warriors. Yes, this is the rematch from the shocking Milwaukee win last week, 108-95. That clear was a fluke and a bad situation for Golden State because since then the Bucks have lost by 18 and 13 points allowing 113 and 103 points. Milwaukee has struggled on defense all season, 18th in points allowed, 21st at defending the three. Milwaukee is 8-3 over the total after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Golden State is home, rested, and back on track, tops in the NBA in points scored (115.8 ppg). Klay Thompson scored 27 of his season-high 43 points in the third quarter, and the Golden State Warriors responded after their first loss following a record 24-0 start by beating the Phoenix Suns 128-103 on Wednesday. Curry added 25 points on 10-of-14 shooting and seven assists for Golden State, which returned home from its two-week road trip that ended with its lone defeat, 108-95 on Saturday at Milwaukee. That also ended a 28-game overall winning streak by the Warriors, second-longest in NBA history. Golden State is 5-1 over the total against the Eastern Conference, plus a 9-1 run over overall. Play the Bucks/Warriors Over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brandon Lee

Pistons vs Bulls

10* FREE NBA PICK (Bulls -3.5)

Chicago has been a difficult team to back when not facing a big time opponent, but I just think the books have made a mistake with this line. The Bulls have consistently played well at home, where they are 11-3 and they will be motivated to close out their 5-game homestand with a perfect 5-0 record. Chicago also comes into this game with revenge on their mind, as they lost 94-98 in overtime at Detroit earlier this year and division losses tend to sting a little more than the rest. You also have to love the fact that the Bulls have won 17 of their last 18 home games against the Pistons. Detroit is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against at team with a winning home record. Give me the Bulls -3.5!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Lundin

Clippers vs Spurs

5* NBA Free Pick Over

The San Antonio Spurs are riding a four-game winning streak and they've played some excellent defense in recent weeks. Stopping the surging Clippers won't be easy though, and I expect an action-packed high-scoring game at AT&T Center Friday night. The over is 11-4 in the Clippers last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record, and J.J. Redick has made 11 3-pointers while averaging 21.3 points through his last three games, all Clippers wins. The Spurs destroyed the Wizards 114-95 Wednesday, and the over is 5-1 in their last six games following a straight up win of more than 10 points and a perfect 4-0 in their last four at home. We can also note that the over is 14-6-2 in the last 22 head-to-head meetings in San Antonio, and this total looks a little light considering how good both teams have been on the ball lately.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones

Pelicans vs Suns

Jack's Free Pick Friday: New Orleans Pelicans +3.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are finally back to full strength health-wise. They are just 7-18 on the season, but now they'll be a dangerous team going forward, and they come in playing some of their best basketball of the season.

Yes, the Pelicans are just 2-2 in their last four games, but two of their losses came on the road to Chicago (by 4) and Portland (by 4). They also beat the Wizards by 2 at home and topped the Jazz by 10 points on their road last time out on Wednesday.

The Suns have lost three of their last four games coming in with their only win coming at home over the Timberwolves by 7. They haven't even been competitive in the losses, losing by 10 at home to Portland, by 10 at Dallas and by 25 at Golden State.

New Orleans simply owns Phoenix. It has already won two meetings with the Suns this season for two of its seven wins. The Pelicans have now won four of their last five meetings with the Suns with their only loss coming by 2 points on the road last season. The Suns are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Bet the Pelicans Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Southern Illinois vs Murray State

Bonus Play Murray State

I'm recommending a play on Murray State minus the points over Southern Illinois. Tonight marks the third straight game for MSU against an opponent from the Missouri Valley Conference. The Racers lost the first two (1-1 ATS), including a 63-61 loss to Illinois State, and an 85-81 OT loss to Evansville. But I expect a breakthrough here. SIU enters with a 9-2 SU mark, but they're not as good as either of the first two MVC entries Murray State faced. Despite a soft slate, the Salukis are struggling on the defensive end, allowing the opposition to nail 44.4% of their FGA, which ranks 252nd in the nation. I expect SIU to be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Racers to catch fire and end their three-game skid. SIU guard Anthony Beane has averaged 20 ppg on the season and leads the way, but the Racers have a pair of guards in Bryce Jones and Demarcus Croaker who'll make him work away from the ball and deny open looks. And while the Salukis have covered just two of their last eight on the road against teams with a winning home record, the Racers enter on an 8-1-1 ATS run against Mo-Valley opponents. Their record may not be as shiny as SIU's, but the Racers are the more talented team. I'm recommending a play on Murray State minus the points on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.