Friday 11/4/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction:Golden State Warriors (4-1) at Los Angeles Lakers (2-3)
By Randy Chambers
Friday, November 4, 2016 at 10:30 pm (STAPLES Center)
The Line: Los Angeles Lakers +10.5 -- Over/Under: 226.5
TV: ESPN

The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers meet Friday night in NBA action at the Staples Center on ESPN.

The Golden State Warriors look to build on their solid 4-1 start after beating the Oklahoma City Thunder Thursday night. The Golden State Warriors are averaging 113.8 points on 48.6 percent shooting and allowing 111.8 points on 44.9 percent shooting. Kevin Durant is averaging 28.5 points and nine rebounds while Stephen Curry is averaging 2.63 points and 4.3 assists. Klay Thompson is the third double-digit scorer and Draymond Green is grabbing 11 rebounds. The Golden State Warriors are shooting 29.3 percent from beyond the arc and 81.4 percent from the free throw line. The Golden State Warriors are allowing 36.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 35.3 rebounds per game. The Golden State Warriors have won seven straight road games.

The Los Angeles Lakers look for a statement victory that would get them back to a .500 record. The Los Angeles Lakers are averaging 107.2 points on 45.7 percent shooting and allowing 110.8 points on 47.2 percent shooting. D'Angelo Russell is averaging 16.6 points and 4.8 assists while Louis Williams is averaging 14.6 points and 3.8 assists. Jordan Clarkson is the third double-digit scorer and Julius Randle is grabbing 7.2 rebounds. The Los Angeles Lakers are shooting 30.7 percent from beyond the arc and 83 percent from the free throw line. The Los Angeles Lakers are allowing 30.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 41.6 rebounds per game. The Los Angeles Lakers have won three of their last five home games.

The Warriors are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 0 days rest and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Warriors are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings and the favorite is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.

The Lakers have been improved on the offensive end and are a young team playing with more confidence. The Lakers will be up for this game at home. The problem is the Lakers still struggle on the defensive end and that's not good when going up against a powerhouse such as the Warriors who found their groove Thursday night. This is a lot of points to lay with a Warriors team on the end of a back-to-back, but the Lakers will have a hard time getting stops in this game.

RANDY'S PICK
Golden State Warriors -10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-7) vs Ottawa Red Blacks (8-8)
Friday, November 4, 2016 7:00 PM
Venue: TD Place Stadium - Ottawa, ON
Line: Winnipeg -3 / Total: 50.5

In this CFL pick preview, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers travel to Ottawa, ON to play the Red Blacks of Ottawa in TD Place Stadium at 7:00 PM on Friday, November 4, 2016.

Ottawa is the underdog in this matchup, with a posted line of 3.0 here at home. The Total has been posted at Over/Under 50.5.


About the Winnipeg Blue Bombers

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers enter this game with a 10-7 record, including an 6-2 record on the road.

When it comes to betting the Blue Bombers AGAINST THE SPREAD, they hold a record of 9-8. On the road, as is the case today, Winnipeg is 6-2 AGAINST THE SPREAD.

In betting the Total in Blue Bombers games, OVER THE TOTAL has been the case 10 times, while UNDER THE TOTAL has cashed the ticket on 7 occasion. On the road, Winnipeg games have gone 6-2 respectively.

VISITING TEAM SNAPSHOT
Winnipeg Blue Bombers Stats & Trends
* 10-7 Straight Up this season
* 6-2 on the road
* 9-8 Against the Spread this season
* 6-2 ATS on the road
* 10-7 Over/Under
* 27.3 Average Points Scored
* 25.5 Average Points Allowed

About the Ottawa Red Blacks

The Ottawa Red Blacks enter this game with a 8-8 record, including an - record on the road.

When it comes to betting the Red Blacks AGAINST THE SPREAD, they hold a record of 7-10. When playing here at home, as is the case today, Ottawa is 1-7 AGAINST THE SPREAD.

In betting the Total in Red Blacks games, OVER THE TOTAL has been the case 8 times, while UNDER THE TOTAL has cashed the ticket on 8 occasion. Here in Ottawa, games have gone 3-4 respectively.
HOME TEAM SNAPSHOT
Ottawa Red Blacks Stats & Trends
* 8-8 Straight Up this season
* 2-5 at home
* 7-10 Against the Spread this season
* 1-7 ATS at home
* 8-8 Over/Under
* 29.1 Average Points Scored
* 28.9 Average Points Allowed

Prior Games Between the Blue Bombers and the Red Blacks
Date Away Score Home Score Line Total
October 29, 2016 Ottawa 23 Winnipeg 10 -5.5 55.0
October 24, 2015 Ottawa 27 Winnipeg 20 1.0 50.5
October 16, 2015 Winnipeg 24 Ottawa 27 -4.0 51.5
October 3, 2014 Winnipeg 20 Ottawa 42 -2.5 45.5
July 3, 2014 Ottawa 28 Winnipeg 36 -6.5 54.5

The Predicted Final Score of this game is Ottawa Red Blacks 29 - Winnipeg Blue Bombers 26

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Friday’s games

Hawks won six of last eight games with Washington; four of last five series games went over. Atlanta won three of last four visits here; underdogs covered five of last seven series games. Hawks won three of last four games (over 2-2); they won only road game at Philly. Wizards lost first three games (over 3-0), losing only home game by 10 to Toronto.

Hornets won last four games with Brooklyn, but Nets covered four of last five in series; over is 6-3 in last nine series games. Charlotte won three of first four games (over 3-1), winning both road games, at Miami/Milwaukee. Brooklyn is 2-3, 2-1 at home (over 3-2); they’re 4-1 vs spread so far this season.

Toronto ousted Heat from playoffs in seven games LY;* Miami lost its last three games here by 4-8-27 points. Last three series games went over total. Heat split their first four games (over 3-1) this season, winning only road game by 12 at Orlando. Raptors won three of their first four games (over 3-1).

Rose/Noah return to Chicago here, on same day Cubs have their victory parade. New York won three of last four games against the Bulls, but lost four of last five visits to Windy City (2-3 vs spread). Knicks are off to 1-3 start, losing last two games by 13-19 points; three of their four games stayed under total. Chicago are off to 3-1 start, covering both games as a home favorite.

Home side won seven of last ten Phoenix-New Orleans games; three of last four went over total. Suns lost three of last four visits (over 3-1) to Bourbon Street, with losses by 4-15-6 points; they’re off to a 1-4 start, 1-1 as a road underdog. Three of last four Phoenix games went over total. Pelicans lost their first five games (1-4 vs spread); they’re 0-2 as a home favorite. Over is 3-2 in New Orleans games.

Clippers won four of last five games with Memphis but Grizzlies covered six of last eight series games; five of last six series games stayed under total. Clippers lost three of last four visits to Memphis, with losses by 11-16-6 points. Grizzlies are 3-0 at home, 0-2 on road (over 3-2); their last two wins were both in OT. Clippers are off to 3-1 start, winning only road game, at Portland.

Dallas won three of last four games with Portland (over 3-1); Trailblazers lost last four visits to Dallas, by 12-16-10-5 points. Three of last six series games went to OT. Portland lost three of last four games; they’ve split pair of OT games on road- all five of their games have gone over total. Dallas lost its first four games, losing only home game to Houston by 8- their last three games stayed under.

Spurs won four of last five games with Utah, but loss was 106-91 Jazz win in Alamo Tuesday night; last three meetings in Utah stayed under the total. San Antonio is 4-1 this season (over 3-2), 3-0 on road, 1-0-1 as a road favorite. Utah beat Lakers/Dallas in its two home games; they are 3-2 overall, 1-1 as home favorite. Three of last four Jazz games stayed under total.

Former Golden State assistant Walton is now Lakers’ coach. Golden State won eight of last ten games with LA (7-3 vs spread); Warriors lost two of last three against the Lakers here. Last four series games stayed under total. Golden State had “big game” with Thunder last night; they’ve won four games in row, but are 1-2 as road favorites. Lakers are 2-3 this season, 4-1 vs spread; they upset Rockets in only home game so far.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 20
By David Schwab

Heading into the final weekend of the CFL regular season, Edmonton is coming off a big victory on the road against Hamilton this past Friday in a 29-26 win as a 2 ½-point underdog. The road teams kept things rolling on Saturday with Ottawa beating Winnipeg 23-10 as a 5 ½-point underdog and British Columbia cruising past Saskatchewan 24-6 as a five-point favorite in the first of two home-and-home matchups to close out the year.

Calgary closed out its regular season this past Sunday with a stunning 17-8 loss to Montreal as an eight-point road favorite to snap its 14-game straight-up winning streak.

Friday, Nov. 4

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (10-7 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) vs Ottawa RedBlacks (8-8-1 SU, 7-10 ATS)
Point-spread: PICK
Total: 51

Game Overview

The Blue Bombers could only manage three points in the first half of last week’s loss at home to Ottawa and while Matt Nichols ended the day with 289 passing yards on 35 completions, he threw three times as many interceptions (3) as touchdown passes (1). Andrew Harris still had a good day running the ball with 98 yards on 12 carries and he is currently second in the CFL in rushing this season with 914 yards.

Ottawa may only be .500 on the year with last week’s win, but that is good enough to clinch a second-straight East Division title. While that will take some of the meaning away from this Friday’s rematch given that its path in the playoffs has been set, you can still expect Henry Burris to be slinging the ball down field after completing 69.7 percent of his 33 attempts for 338 yards against Winnipeg last week.

Betting Trends

With last week’s win, the RedBlacks have now won four of their last five games against Winnipeg SU and they have a 3-1 edge against the spread in the last four meetings. The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 12 games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Spartans (3-6) at Broncos (7-1)

Date: November 04, 2016 10:15 PM EDT

Boise State has likely seen its opportunity at snatching a Cotton Bowl invitation slide away and has work to do just to reach the Mountain West conference title game.

The No. 24 Broncos were outworked by an upstart Wyoming squad last Saturday to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten. And the 30-28 loss to the Cowboys means Boise State (7-1, 3-1) has to make up two games on Wyoming (6-2, 4-0) just to be the Mountain Division champ and qualify for the conference title game.

The Broncos will begin the task of trying to overtake the Cowboys when they host San Jose State on Friday night (10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN 2). The Spartans (3-6, 2-3) are winless against Boise State in 12 previous meetings.

There's also this tidbit: San Jose State last defeated a ranked team on the road on Nov. 1, 1980 when it upset a No. 10 Baylor squad led by future Hall of Fame linebacker Mike Singletary.

Spartans coach Ron Caragher is well aware of the challenge of duplicating that feat as Boise State has won 100 of its last 106 home games.

"They've got good players across the board, a well-balanced football team," Caragher said at a press conference. "We're going to need to play on a very high level for four quarters."

San Jose State figures to encounter an irritated batch of Broncos still smarting from the loss to Wyoming.

But dwelling on the defeat could prove more harmful and the Boise State players insist they won't have the costly loss on their minds.

"It's time to move on," sophomore defensive end Durrant Miles told reporters. "Obviously, we can't go back and change it, as much as we'd love to, but all we can do is move forward."

Senior weak-side linebacker Ben Weaver echoed similar thoughts as the Broncos try to patch up the issues that led to them allowing a season worst for points.

"All we can do is focus on ourselves and focus on going 1-0 this week with San Jose State," said Weaver, "and correcting this game and doing all we can to win this next game and continue to win."

Boise State also needs to work on its turnover margin -- which is tied for 122nd nationally. The Broncos have committed 13 turnovers and forced only four.

The deciding play in the loss to Wyoming was when quarterback Brett Rypien fumbled and the ball rolled out of the end zone for a safety with 1:25 remaining.

"We just didn't come up with enough plays and we didn't win the turnover battle," Boise State coach Bryan Harsin said. "We've been talking about it's just a matter of time, if you don't do that, you put yourself in a tough position."

Rypien has thrown just six interceptions but three have come in the past two games. He has passed for 2,359 yards and 15 touchdowns with his favorite target being senior receiver Thomas Sperbeck, who has 55 catches for 890 yards and seven touchdowns.

Sperbeck needs one reception to become the fifth player in Boise State history to reach 200 career catches.

Broncos running back Jeremy McNichols leads the nation with 18 total touchdowns (14 rushing, four receiving) and he has scored at least once in 20 consecutive games. The junior rushed for 143 yards and two touchdowns against Wyoming to raise his season total to 1,058 yards -- sixth-most nationally.

Boise State has allowed an average of 26.7 points over its past three games. Weaver matched his career high of 16 tackles against Wyoming and leads the team with 72 tackles, while sophomore defensive tackle David Moa leads Boise State with 6 1/2 sacks.

San Jose State is taking care of the football much better than the Broncos. The Spartans have gone 12 quarters without committing a turnover since a miscue in the fourth quarter against Hawaii on Oct. 8.

"It's no coincidence we've won the turnover battle the last three weeks and won two of those three games," Caragher said. "We always preach to our guys that we need to protect the football. I'll take a sack any day over just throwing the football up for grabs. That's a streak we're going to look to build upon."

Senior quarterback Kenny Potter has passed for 1,544 yards and 11 touchdowns against six interceptions. Senior receiver Tim Crawley has caught 34 passes for 389 yards while sophomore wideout Tre Hartley stretches the field with 33 receptions for 572 yards.

San Jose State's defense allows 35.1 points per game but has received solid play from junior cornerback Andre Chachere (team-leading three interceptions) and senior defensive end Nick Oreglia (team-high 8 1/2 tackles for losses).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Central Michigan Chippewas (5-4) at Miami-OH RedHawks (3-6)
By David Racey

Friday, November 4, 2016 at 6:00 pm (Fred C Yager Stadium)
The Line: Miami-OH RedHawks +3.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: CBS Sports Network

The Central Michigan Chippewas will travel to play the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks in a MAC College Football Game on Friday night.

The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks are 3-6 (3-2) this season after beating Eastern Michigan by a score of 28-15 in their last game. Miami (OH) has won 3 games in a row, which has put them in a tie for second place in the MAC East standings. The Miami (OH) offense is averaging 20.9 points per game with 124.2 rushing yards and 225.8 passing yards per game. Gus Ragland is completing 59.5% of his passes for 571 yards and 6 touchdowns for Miami (OH). Alonzo Smith has rushed for 481 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Kenny Young has added 385 yards and 1 score for the RedHawks. James Gardner has caught 35 passes for 581 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Jared Murphy has caught 32 passes for 393 yards and 2 touchdowns for Miami (OH). The Miami defense is giving up 25.7 points per game with 132.4 rushing yards and 217.3 passing yards per game. Junior McMullen has led the RedHawks defense with 62 tackles, 5 tackles for loss and 1 sack, while De’Andre Montgomery has added 45 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and 3 interceptions. Nick Dowd has gone 7-8 on field goals, with a long of 38 yards for Miami (OH).

The Central Michigan Chippewas are 5-4 (2-3) this season after losing to Kent State by a score of 27-24 in their last game. Central Michigan has lost their last 2 games and is tied for 4th in the MAC West standings. The Central Michigan offense is averaging 29.7 points per game with 136.6 rushing yards and 283.4 passing yards per game. Cooper Rush is completing 59% of his passes for 2533 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions for Central Michigan. Devon Spalding has rushed for 652 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Jahray Hayes has added 327 yards and 5 touchdowns for the Chippewas. Corey Willis has caught 48 passes for 717 yards and 9 touchdowns, while Tyler Conklin has caught 31 balls for 446 yards and 4 touchdowns for CMU. The Central Michigan defense is giving up 28.4 points per game with 154 rushing yards and 199.7 passing yards per game. Malik Fountain has led the Central Michigan defense with 69 tackles and 9 tackles for loss, while Joe Ostman has added 48 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, and 5 sacks. Brian Eavey has gone 4-12 on field goals, with a long of 45 yards.

Central Michigan is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 November games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. The over is 4-1 in Central Michigan’s last 5 November games. Miami (OH) is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 November games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games. The under is 4-0 in Miami (OH) last 4 home games. The road team is 5-1 ATS in these two teams last 6 meetings.

Central Michigan had a tough loss last week in a game that they should have won, while Miami (OH) is just hanging onto bowl eligibility. Central Michigan has a good passing attack behind quarterback Cooper Rush, while Miami (OH) has a much slower offense. I like Central Michigan to bounce back on the road here behind a much stronger game from Rush.

DAVID'S PICK
Central Michigan Chippewas -3.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Central Michigan Chippewas (5-4) at Miami-OH RedHawks (3-6)
By David Racey

Friday, November 4, 2016 at 6:00 pm (Fred C Yager Stadium)
The Line: Miami-OH RedHawks +3.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
TV: CBS Sports Network

The Central Michigan Chippewas will travel to play the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks in a MAC College Football Game on Friday night.

The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks are 3-6 (3-2) this season after beating Eastern Michigan by a score of 28-15 in their last game. Miami (OH) has won 3 games in a row, which has put them in a tie for second place in the MAC East standings. The Miami (OH) offense is averaging 20.9 points per game with 124.2 rushing yards and 225.8 passing yards per game. Gus Ragland is completing 59.5% of his passes for 571 yards and 6 touchdowns for Miami (OH). Alonzo Smith has rushed for 481 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Kenny Young has added 385 yards and 1 score for the RedHawks. James Gardner has caught 35 passes for 581 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Jared Murphy has caught 32 passes for 393 yards and 2 touchdowns for Miami (OH). The Miami defense is giving up 25.7 points per game with 132.4 rushing yards and 217.3 passing yards per game. Junior McMullen has led the RedHawks defense with 62 tackles, 5 tackles for loss and 1 sack, while De’Andre Montgomery has added 45 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and 3 interceptions. Nick Dowd has gone 7-8 on field goals, with a long of 38 yards for Miami (OH).

The Central Michigan Chippewas are 5-4 (2-3) this season after losing to Kent State by a score of 27-24 in their last game. Central Michigan has lost their last 2 games and is tied for 4th in the MAC West standings. The Central Michigan offense is averaging 29.7 points per game with 136.6 rushing yards and 283.4 passing yards per game. Cooper Rush is completing 59% of his passes for 2533 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions for Central Michigan. Devon Spalding has rushed for 652 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Jahray Hayes has added 327 yards and 5 touchdowns for the Chippewas. Corey Willis has caught 48 passes for 717 yards and 9 touchdowns, while Tyler Conklin has caught 31 balls for 446 yards and 4 touchdowns for CMU. The Central Michigan defense is giving up 28.4 points per game with 154 rushing yards and 199.7 passing yards per game. Malik Fountain has led the Central Michigan defense with 69 tackles and 9 tackles for loss, while Joe Ostman has added 48 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, and 5 sacks. Brian Eavey has gone 4-12 on field goals, with a long of 45 yards.

Central Michigan is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 November games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. The over is 4-1 in Central Michigan’s last 5 November games. Miami (OH) is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 November games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games. The under is 4-0 in Miami (OH) last 4 home games. The road team is 5-1 ATS in these two teams last 6 meetings.

Central Michigan had a tough loss last week in a game that they should have won, while Miami (OH) is just hanging onto bowl eligibility. Central Michigan has a good passing attack behind quarterback Cooper Rush, while Miami (OH) has a much slower offense. I like Central Michigan to bounce back on the road here behind a much stronger game from Rush.

DAVID'S PICK
Central Michigan Chippewas -3.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

**Temple at Connecticut**

-- Temple (6-3 straight up, 8-1 against the spread) is in charge in the AAC East and will win the division title if it can win its last three games at UConn, at Tulane and vs. East Carolina. Matt Rhule’s team is on fire for our purposes, covering the spread in eight consecutive games since dropping its season opener by a 28-13 count to Army. Since the regular-season finale in Rhule’s second season, the Owls have compiled a 17-7 SU record while cashing tickets at a 18-6 ATS clip.

-- Temple is 4-1 in league play, leaving it tied with USF atop the standings. However, the Owls own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bulls by virtue of their 46-30 win as 6.5-point home underdogs two Fridays ago. Ryquell Armstead led the way against USF by rushing for 210 yards and two TDs on 20 carries. Jahad Thomas added two more TD runs, while P.J. Walker threw for 209 yards and one TD without an interception.

-- Temple won its third straight and fifth in its last six games by beating Cincinnati 34-13 as a 9.5-point home ‘chalk’ last week. The Owls produced 474 yards of total offense and limited the Bearcats to just 186 yards. Walker threw for 199 yards and two TDs without an interception, while Thomas rushed 17 times for 151 yards. Armstead ran for 61 yards and two scores on 18 totes. Ventell Bryant and Adonis Jennings had TD catches.

-- Temple owns a 4-3 spread record as a road favorite on Rhule’s watch.

-- As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had Temple installed as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5 points. The Huskies were +330 on the money line (risk $100 to win $330).

-- UConn (3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) has lost three consecutive games and five of its last six, including last week’s 41-3 blowout defeat at East Carolina. Bryant Shirreffs completed 16-of-30 passes for 180 yards with two interceptions. The Huskies managed only 89 rushing yards on 31 attempts for an abysmal 2.9 yards-per-carry average.

-- UConn has wins vs. Maine (24-21), vs. Virginia (13-10) and vs. Cincinnati (20-9). The Huskies have lost at Navy (28-24), vs. Syracuse (31-24), at Houston (42-14), at USF (42-27) and vs. UCF (24-16).

-- UConn is 1-1 both SU and ATS as a home underdog this season. The Huskies are 5-6 both SU and ATS in their 11 games as home ‘dogs since Bob Diaco took over.

-- UConn’s defense ranks No. 25 in the country against the rush, limiting foes to 125.3 yards per game on the ground. This unit is led by senior safety Obi Melifonwu, who has a team-high 74 tackles, two interceptions, one tackle for loss, one fumble recovery and three passes broken up. Another standout is junior LB Junior Joseph, who has recorded 60 tackles, four QB hurries, one TFL and one PBU.

-- UConn’s offense averaged 15.5 and 17.2 PPG in Diaco’s first two seasons at the helm. The Huskies have slightly improved to 18.3 PPG, but that number still ranks them No. 126 in the nation out of 128 FBS schools. Shirreffs has completed 58.7 percent of his throws for 2,010 yards with a 7/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His favorite target is senior WR Noel Thomas, who has 83 receptions for 1,058 yards and three TDs. Thomas ranks fifth in the country in receiving yards.

-- Junior RB Arkeel Newsome has rushed for a team-best 528 yards and four TDs while averaging 4.5 YPC. Shirreffs has rushed for 326 yards and two scores, while Ron Johnson has four rushing TDs.

-- Temple is 11th in the nation in total defense, giving up only 306.4 YPG. The Owls are sixth in pass defense, allowing only 163.7 YPG. They are giving up 22.7 PPG. This stop unit is led by senior LB Stephaun Marshall, who has produced 43 tackles, 1.5 TFL’s and two PBU.

-- Walker has connected on 57.6 percent of his passes for 1,990 yards with a 13/10 TD-INT ratio. Keith Kirkwood is his favorite target, hauling in 27 catches for 420 yards and three TDs. Bryant has 23 receptions for 412 yards and two TDs.

-- Thomas, a first-team All-AAC selection when he ran for 1,262 yards and 17 TDs in 2015, missed Temple’s first two games. Since then, Thomas has run for 564 yards and nine TDs on 118 carries for a 4.8 YPC average. Armstead has rushed for a team-high 674 yards and 11 TDs on 109 totes. Armstead averages 6.2 YPC. Thomas has 23 catches for 281 yards and three TDs.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for the Owls, 2-1 in their road assignments. They’ve seen the ‘over’ go 5-2 in their last seven outings.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for UConn, 4-1 in its home games.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for Friday night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- There are two additional games on Friday’s card, including Central Michigan at Miami (OH.) and San Jose State at Boise State.

-- Boise State (7-1 SU, 2-6 ATS) is off its first loss of the season and it was costly one. BSU went down 30-28 at Wyoming as a 14.5-point road ‘chalk.’ This leaves the Broncos at 3-1 in Mountain West Conference action, while the Cowboys improved to 4-0 in MWC play. This means Bryan Harsin’s club must win out and Wyoming must lose twice in order for Boise St. to get to the MWC Championship Game. The ‘under’ is 6-2 overall for the Broncos, 4-0 in their home games. As of Wednesday, most spots had BSU installed as a 29-point home favorite with a total of 57.5 points. Since Harsin took over, Boise St. has posted a 6-11 spread record in 17 games as a home ‘chalk.’

-- San Jose State (3-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) has seen the ‘under’ cash in four consecutive games. The Spartans have won two of their last three contests, including a 30-24 win over UNLV as three-point home underdogs last weekend. Senior QB Kenny Potter threw for 292 yards and two TDs without an interception against the Rebels. San Jose St. has gone 1-3 ATS in four games as a road underdog this year. Since Ron Caragher took over in 2013, the Spartans are an atrocious 4-13 ATS as road ‘dogs.

-- BSU and San Jose State will kick from Albertsons Stadium on the smurf turf at 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

-- CMU and Miami (OH.) are set for a 6:00 p.m. start on the CBS College Network. As of Wednesday, the Chippewas were favored by 3.5 with a total of 47. CMU has dropped back-to-back games, including a 27-24 loss to Kent St. as a 12-point home favorite this past Saturday. The Chippewas have limped to a 1-5 spread record in their last six outings.

-- Miami (OH.) lost its first six games of the season but has responded with straight victories both SU and ATS. The Redhawks beat Kent St. 18-14 at home before going on the road and winning 40-26 at Bowling Green and 28-15 at Eastern Michigan. They are 2-1 ATS as home ‘dogs this year and 5-4-1 ATS as home puppies on Chuck Martin’s watch.

-- Colorado remains the best ATS team in America with a perfect 8-0 spread record. The next-best ATS squads include Temple (8-1), Auburn (7-1), Western Michigan (8-2) and Eastern Michigan (7-2).

-- The worst ATS squads who are all 1-7 versus the number include Florida Atlantic, Arizona, Nevada, TCU and Georgia Southern. Oregon is 1-6-1 ATS, while Bowling Green is 2-7 ATS.

-- According to multiple reports out of Los Angeles, UCLA sophomore QB Josh Rosen will miss the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury.

--With last week’s spread cover in a 24-20 loss at Ohio St. as a 25.5-point road underdog, Northwestern improved to 25-15 ATS as a road underdog during Pat Fitzgerald’s 11-year tenure. The Wildcats, who have covered the number in four straight outings, also upped their ATS record to 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as double-digit ‘dogs. Northwestern hosts Wisconsin this weekend.

-- Baylor RBs Shock Linwood and Terrence Williams are both ‘questionable’ vs. TCU due to injuries.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 20 CFL games

Winnipeg (10-7) @ Ottawa (8-8-1)— RedBlacks (+5.5) won first meeting this year 23-10 in Winnipeg last week; Ottawa picked off three passes in winning fourth straight series game, with last three staying under total. Blue Bombers are 2-3 in last five games but won six of last seven on road, with lone loss 36-34 at Calgary in Week 14. Ottawa is 2-3 in last five games, losing last two home games in OT- they’re 2-5-1 overall at home. Four of Ottawa’s last five games went over total; over is 8-2 in Winnipeg’s last ten games.

Montreal (6-11) @ Hamilton (7-10)— TiCats won first two meetings 31-7 (-2) in Montreal, 20-17 (-10) here- they’ve won last three series games by 12-24-3 points- under is 9-2 in last 11 series games, with last five all staying under total. Alouettes won last two games 19-14/17-8, upsetting Calgary LW; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Montreal is 5-3 as a road underdog this year. Hamilton lost four of its last five games; they’re 2-5 as a home favorite. Four of last six TigerCat games stayed under the total.

Toronto (5-12) @ Edmonton (9-8)— Argonauts lost last six games, are 1-10 vs spread in last 11; their last seven losses are all by 13+ points. Toronto is 3-5 as road underdog this year, with last cover on road back in July. Eskimos (-3) won first meeting 46-23 in Toronto August 20. Edmonton won four of last five games after losing consecutive OT games before that; Eskimos are playing at home for first time since September 23; they’re 1-5 vs spread as a home favorite this season- they’re 4-4 at home SU. Four of last six Edmonton games stayed under.

Saskatchewan (5-12) @ British Columbia (11-6)— Lions won both meetings this year, 40-27 (+1.5) July 16, 24-6 (-4) last week; both games were in Regina. Roughriders lost 35-32/46-20 in last two visits here. Under is 16-5 in last 21 series games. Saskatchewan started season 1-10, then won four in a row, before losing 19-14/24-6 in last two games; Riders are won their last two road games SU, covered their last four- they’re 5-3 overall as road dog. BC won its last two games 32-25/24-6; they’re 4-3 as home favorites- three of their last four home games went over.


Week 20 CFL games

—*Underdogs 41-31-1, home teams 28-47-2 vs spread…….Over: 36-38-3

— Winnipeg @ Ottawa (even, 51.5)
— Montreal @ Hamilton (-3.5, 46.5)
— Toronto @ Edmonton
— Saskatchewan @ British Columbia

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

**Temple at Connecticut**

-- Temple (6-3 straight up, 8-1 against the spread) is in charge in the AAC East and will win the division title if it can win its last three games at UConn, at Tulane and vs. East Carolina. Matt Rhule’s team is on fire for our purposes, covering the spread in eight consecutive games since dropping its season opener by a 28-13 count to Army. Since the regular-season finale in Rhule’s second season, the Owls have compiled a 17-7 SU record while cashing tickets at a 18-6 ATS clip.

-- Temple is 4-1 in league play, leaving it tied with USF atop the standings. However, the Owls own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bulls by virtue of their 46-30 win as 6.5-point home underdogs two Fridays ago. Ryquell Armstead led the way against USF by rushing for 210 yards and two TDs on 20 carries. Jahad Thomas added two more TD runs, while P.J. Walker threw for 209 yards and one TD without an interception.

-- Temple won its third straight and fifth in its last six games by beating Cincinnati 34-13 as a 9.5-point home ‘chalk’ last week. The Owls produced 474 yards of total offense and limited the Bearcats to just 186 yards. Walker threw for 199 yards and two TDs without an interception, while Thomas rushed 17 times for 151 yards. Armstead ran for 61 yards and two scores on 18 totes. Ventell Bryant and Adonis Jennings had TD catches.

-- Temple owns a 4-3 spread record as a road favorite on Rhule’s watch.

-- As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had Temple installed as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5 points. The Huskies were +330 on the money line (risk $100 to win $330).

-- UConn (3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) has lost three consecutive games and five of its last six, including last week’s 41-3 blowout defeat at East Carolina. Bryant Shirreffs completed 16-of-30 passes for 180 yards with two interceptions. The Huskies managed only 89 rushing yards on 31 attempts for an abysmal 2.9 yards-per-carry average.

-- UConn has wins vs. Maine (24-21), vs. Virginia (13-10) and vs. Cincinnati (20-9). The Huskies have lost at Navy (28-24), vs. Syracuse (31-24), at Houston (42-14), at USF (42-27) and vs. UCF (24-16).

-- UConn is 1-1 both SU and ATS as a home underdog this season. The Huskies are 5-6 both SU and ATS in their 11 games as home ‘dogs since Bob Diaco took over.

-- UConn’s defense ranks No. 25 in the country against the rush, limiting foes to 125.3 yards per game on the ground. This unit is led by senior safety Obi Melifonwu, who has a team-high 74 tackles, two interceptions, one tackle for loss, one fumble recovery and three passes broken up. Another standout is junior LB Junior Joseph, who has recorded 60 tackles, four QB hurries, one TFL and one PBU.

-- UConn’s offense averaged 15.5 and 17.2 PPG in Diaco’s first two seasons at the helm. The Huskies have slightly improved to 18.3 PPG, but that number still ranks them No. 126 in the nation out of 128 FBS schools. Shirreffs has completed 58.7 percent of his throws for 2,010 yards with a 7/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His favorite target is senior WR Noel Thomas, who has 83 receptions for 1,058 yards and three TDs. Thomas ranks fifth in the country in receiving yards.

-- Junior RB Arkeel Newsome has rushed for a team-best 528 yards and four TDs while averaging 4.5 YPC. Shirreffs has rushed for 326 yards and two scores, while Ron Johnson has four rushing TDs.

-- Temple is 11th in the nation in total defense, giving up only 306.4 YPG. The Owls are sixth in pass defense, allowing only 163.7 YPG. They are giving up 22.7 PPG. This stop unit is led by senior LB Stephaun Marshall, who has produced 43 tackles, 1.5 TFL’s and two PBU.

-- Walker has connected on 57.6 percent of his passes for 1,990 yards with a 13/10 TD-INT ratio. Keith Kirkwood is his favorite target, hauling in 27 catches for 420 yards and three TDs. Bryant has 23 receptions for 412 yards and two TDs.

-- Thomas, a first-team All-AAC selection when he ran for 1,262 yards and 17 TDs in 2015, missed Temple’s first two games. Since then, Thomas has run for 564 yards and nine TDs on 118 carries for a 4.8 YPC average. Armstead has rushed for a team-high 674 yards and 11 TDs on 109 totes. Armstead averages 6.2 YPC. Thomas has 23 catches for 281 yards and three TDs.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for the Owls, 2-1 in their road assignments. They’ve seen the ‘over’ go 5-2 in their last seven outings.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for UConn, 4-1 in its home games.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for Friday night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- There are two additional games on Friday’s card, including Central Michigan at Miami (OH.) and San Jose State at Boise State.

-- Boise State (7-1 SU, 2-6 ATS) is off its first loss of the season and it was costly one. BSU went down 30-28 at Wyoming as a 14.5-point road ‘chalk.’ This leaves the Broncos at 3-1 in Mountain West Conference action, while the Cowboys improved to 4-0 in MWC play. This means Bryan Harsin’s club must win out and Wyoming must lose twice in order for Boise St. to get to the MWC Championship Game. The ‘under’ is 6-2 overall for the Broncos, 4-0 in their home games. As of Wednesday, most spots had BSU installed as a 29-point home favorite with a total of 57.5 points. Since Harsin took over, Boise St. has posted a 6-11 spread record in 17 games as a home ‘chalk.’

-- San Jose State (3-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) has seen the ‘under’ cash in four consecutive games. The Spartans have won two of their last three contests, including a 30-24 win over UNLV as three-point home underdogs last weekend. Senior QB Kenny Potter threw for 292 yards and two TDs without an interception against the Rebels. San Jose St. has gone 1-3 ATS in four games as a road underdog this year. Since Ron Caragher took over in 2013, the Spartans are an atrocious 4-13 ATS as road ‘dogs.

-- BSU and San Jose State will kick from Albertsons Stadium on the smurf turf at 10:15 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

-- CMU and Miami (OH.) are set for a 6:00 p.m. start on the CBS College Network. As of Wednesday, the Chippewas were favored by 3.5 with a total of 47. CMU has dropped back-to-back games, including a 27-24 loss to Kent St. as a 12-point home favorite this past Saturday. The Chippewas have limped to a 1-5 spread record in their last six outings.

-- Miami (OH.) lost its first six games of the season but has responded with straight victories both SU and ATS. The Redhawks beat Kent St. 18-14 at home before going on the road and winning 40-26 at Bowling Green and 28-15 at Eastern Michigan. They are 2-1 ATS as home ‘dogs this year and 5-4-1 ATS as home puppies on Chuck Martin’s watch.

-- Colorado remains the best ATS team in America with a perfect 8-0 spread record. The next-best ATS squads include Temple (8-1), Auburn (7-1), Western Michigan (8-2) and Eastern Michigan (7-2).

-- The worst ATS squads who are all 1-7 versus the number include Florida Atlantic, Arizona, Nevada, TCU and Georgia Southern. Oregon is 1-6-1 ATS, while Bowling Green is 2-7 ATS.

-- According to multiple reports out of Los Angeles, UCLA sophomore QB Josh Rosen will miss the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury.

--With last week’s spread cover in a 24-20 loss at Ohio St. as a 25.5-point road underdog, Northwestern improved to 25-15 ATS as a road underdog during Pat Fitzgerald’s 11-year tenure. The Wildcats, who have covered the number in four straight outings, also upped their ATS record to 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as double-digit ‘dogs. Northwestern hosts Wisconsin this weekend.

-- Baylor RBs Shock Linwood and Terrence Williams are both ‘questionable’ vs. TCU due to injuries.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 10
By Bruce Marshall

Friday, November 4

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at MIAMI-OHIO...Ugh! Chuck Martin 15-9 as dog since taking over at Miami in 2013 (4-2 TY). Chips 12-4 vs. spread last 16 as visitor, but no covers 4 of last 5 TY.

Slight to CMU, based on team trends.


TEMPLE at UCONN...Owls have covered last 8 TY and are 18-6 last 24 on board. Rhule 8-3 vs. number last 11 as visitor. Temple has dominated UConn last two years combined 63-13 score. Huskies 5-13 vs. points at home for Diaco since 2014.

Temple, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at BOISE STATE...Broncos now no covers last 7 as blue carpet chalk though Harsin rolled Spartans at San Jose LY. Caragher 2-12 last 14 as visiting dog.

Slight to Boise State, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Temple Owls (6-3; 8-1 ATS; 5-4 O/U) at Connecticut Huskies (3-6; 2-6-1 ATS: 4-5 O/U)
Friday, November 4, 2016 at 7:00pm EST
Line: Temple -10.5
Total: 46

The Connecticut Huskies will host the red hot Temple Owls in an AAC battle Friday night from Easter Hartford, CT. Temple crushed Cincinnati 34-13 last week, and Connecticut was blown out by a 41-3 score to ECU last weekend. Temple defeated Connecticut 27-3 last season.

Trends:

The Temple Owls are:

7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win.
5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Connecticut.

The Connecticut Huskies are:

1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss.
1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against Temple.

I really like Temple in this matchup. Connecticut was awful last week, losing by 38 points to a weak ECU team and I think this one will get ugly fast. Connecticut relies on their passing game to generate offense, and Temple owns the sixth ranked pass defense in the Nation, and things won’t be very easy for Noel Thomas, and if they shut down Noel Thomas they shut down most of the Huskies offense. Also, Connecticut has one of the worst pass defensive units in the Nation, so I expect Temple to have success in the air, and have their usual success on the ground. Temple has the edge in all areas and I think they take this one in a blowout.

Pick: Temple Owls -10.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Friday’s games

Central Michigan won five of last six games with Miami, winning last three by 7-12-14 points; Chippewas won 21-9/38-37 in last two visits here. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games. Miami won its last three games after an 0-6 start, allowing 18.3 pts/game during its win streak. Redhawks are 4-4-1 as home dogs under Martin. Central is 9-2 in last 11 games as a road favorite, 1-1 this year- they won at Oklahoma State this year, then got upset at Virginia. MAC home underdogs are 4-7 against the spread.

Temple won four of last five games with UConn, with three of four wins by 14+ points. Owls won 36-10/17-14 in last two visits here. Favorites covered last two series games after dogs covered six in row before that. Owls won last three games (by 1-16-21 points), covered last seven; they are 1-2 on road this year, with only win 26-25 at UCF. Temple is 6-5 as road favorite under Rhule. Huskies lost last three games, allowing 35.7 pts/game; they’re 21-10 as home dogs last nine years, 1-1 this year. AAC home underdogs are 6-4 vs spread.

Boise State’s last three games were all decided by 5 or less points; they got upset at Wyoming LW, are 0-4 as home favorites this year, 6-11 under Harsin. Last five years, Boise is 9-3 vs spread in game following a loss. Broncos won last 11 games with San Jose State, covering last five, winning by average score of 42-11. Spartans covered once in last five games on blue turf, losing 45-7/42-7 in last two visits here. Boise ran for 512 yards in last two meetings. Mountain West home favorites are 5-9 vs spread. San Jose is 2-12 in last 14 games as a road underdog.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

2016 Breeders' Cup Preview
By Anthony Stabile

Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 4th and Saturday, November 5th at Santa Anita in Arcadia, CA. Handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race.


Day 1 - Friday, Nov. 4, 2016
Race Purse Distance/Surface Post Time
Juvenile Turf $1,000,000 1 Mile 5:25 p.m. ET
Dirt Mile $1,000,000 1 Mile 6:05 p.m. ET
Juvenile Fillies Turf $1,000,000 1 Mile 6:50 p.m. ET
Distaff $2,000,000 1 1/8 Miles 7:35 p.m. ET


Day 2 - Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016
Race Purse Distance/Surface Post Time
Juvenile Fillies $2,000,000 1 1/16 Miles 3:05 p.m. ET
Filly & Mare Turf $2,000,000 1 1/4 Miles 3:45 p.m. ET
Sprint $1,500,000 6 Furlongs 4:21 p.m. ET
Turf Sprint $1,000,000 6.5 Furlongs 5:05 p.m. ET
Juvenile $2,000,000 1 1/16 miles 5:43 p.m. ET
Turf $4,000,000 1 1/2 miles 6:22 p.m. ET
Filly & Mare Sprint $1,000,000 7 Furlongs 7:01 p.m. ET
Mile $2,000,000 1 mile 7:40 p.m. ET
Classic $6,000,000 1 1/4 miles 8:35 p.m. ET

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Breeders' Cup Facts and Figures
By Anthony Stabile

Historical Betting Notes

Favorites are 96 for 292 (33%) in the 32 year history of the event, while those that were odds on favorites (under even money) are 26 for 55 (47%). The 1990 Juvenile Fillies at Belmont produced the shortest price in Breeders’ Cup history when Meadow Star returned $2.40.

Only one of the 39 horses that have gone off at 100-1 or higher has hit the board. Arcangues came from the other side of the pond to win the 1993 Classic as the biggest longshot in Breeders’ Cup history, returning $269.20.

Inside Information posted the largest margin of victory in Breeders’ Cup history when she walloped her competition by 13 ½ lengths in the 1995 Distaff at Belmont. Eighteen horses have won by the shortest margin of victory, a nose, including Bayern the 2014 Classic.

Foreign based runners have had tremendous success in Breeders’ Cup events. They’ve won 57 races overall, including a remarkable 46 of the 106 (43%) run on the grass. They’ve won seven on conventional dirt and four synthetic track races.

Zenyatta, Beholder, Secret Circle and Stephanie’s Kitten are the only horses to ever win two different events. Goldikova is the only horse to ever win three Breeders’ Cup races.


Horses that have won multiple Breeders’ Cup races

Bayakoa – Distaff – 1989, 1990
Beholder – Juvenile Fillies - 2012, Distaff - 2013
Conduit – Turf – 2008, 2009
Da Hoss – Mile – 1996, 1998
Goldencents – Dirt Mile – 2013, 2014
Goldikova – Mile – 2008, 2009, 2010
Groupie Doll – F&M Sprint - 2012, 2013
High Chapparal – Turf – 2002, 2003 (dead heat w/Johar)
Lure – Mile – 1992, 1993
Midnight Lute – Sprint – 2007, 2008
Miesque – Mile – 1987, 1988
Mizdirection – Turf Sprint – 2012, 2013
Ouija Board – F&M Turf – 2004, 2006
Royal Delta – Distaff – 2011, 2012
Secret Circle – 2011 Juvenile Sprint/2013 Sprint
Stephanie’s Kitten – 2011 Juvenile Fillies, Turf , 2015 - F&M Turf
Tiznow – Classic – 2000, 2001
Wise Dan – Mile – 2012, 2013
Zenyatta – Distaff - 2008, Classic -2009

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Friday 11/4 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 25 - 53 / $109.60 (+$3.60)

BEST BETS: 2 - 4 / $4.80 (-3.20)

Best Bet: STORMIN RUSTLER (3rd)

Spot Play: ROADWAY (2nd)


Race 1

(4) DREAM ROCKER should be plenty tight after a solid second-place finish on Tuesday. I’m not in love with any of these horses but at least this gal has legitimate early speed and should be put in play. (2) KEYSTONE THOMAS has done well here in the past and you can’t fault him for the dull effort last time after getting parked out. (1) PROUD MOMENT is not as fast as he used to be at 11 years old, but he does have the class to pull off an upset.

Race 2

(1) ROADWAY has a 1:51 4/5 win at the Meadowlands this year, which jumps off the page. Don’t be surprised is Ginsburg fires this guy up behind the gate and looks to wire the field. (2) MAYFLOWERMOONSHINE has been stuck with outside posts week after week. Twelve-year-old has back class and might enjoy the better starting spot. (3) BAKIN ON THE BEACH hasn’t raced in almost four weeks but is more than capable of winning in a spot like this one.

Race 3

(4) STORMIN RUSTLER couldn’t have hand-picked a better spot. I know his form isn’t great, but he should be able to take charge here. (8) OUTLAWDANGRUSWATRS has proven versatile and has as good as shot as any in this formless field. (5) CHEYENNE OXE doesn’t have a lot of positive big track experience. That said, at least he has been racing OK of late.

Race 4

(1) SWEET JUSTICE should be firing off the gate as usual and take this field as far as he can. (3) MAGENTA MAN is one of two horses written into the condition on the NW75000 Lifetime also eligible line. If he is ready in his first start since May, watch out. (7) KELSEY’S KEEPSAKE never got involved from post eight at Pocono in her first start for this barn; can improve.

Race 5

(8) VEGAS DREAM was cruising along on the lead when he lost control seemingly due to broken equipment. I’m sticking with him one more time. (9) GRAVE DANCER took dead aim at the top choice and won by default when he stopped suddenly last week. (2) HEAVEN’S GAIT was conservatively driven and had no chance a week ago at 4-5. He could make amends at a better price.

Race 6

(6) ROCK OF CASHEL is a rock-solid competitor who brings an honest effort week after week. He catches a field with plenty of early speed and that should set up his late rally. (4) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT raced somewhat conservatively after seven weeks on the bench. I’m expecting a better effort this time. (8) OPULENT YANKEE drew clear in his qualifier and you can ignore the slow time because the track was very slow with high winds playing a role. If he is ready to fire his best shot, he wins.

Race 7

(8) IMAGINE DRAGON couldn’t handle the stiffer competition in the Breeders Crown. This spot should be right up her alley if McCarthy can keep her in striking position. (6) LYONS RIVER PRIDE moves into a new barn and sports some solid miles on his PP lines in Canada. (1) GWENEEEE J has missed more than five weeks of action. If she is ready to roll, this looks like a great spot.

Race 8

(3) WINDSONG ILLUSION has legitimate excuses for his recent loses, having started from post eight last time and making a break two starts back. This is a very winnable spot and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him show early speed. (8) EARL’S SPEEDER righted the ship with hobbles added last time and two in a row is possible. (4) JACKS TO OPEN has plenty of form and should be a player.

Race 9

(1) PURITY came up short after missing nearly three months of action. Five-year-old mare knows her way around this track and should be in close attendance from the onset. (8) PRINCESS KATIE switches to a bigger track and was able to score multiple times on larger ovals in Canada. (4) ROYAL KNOCKOUT is clearly sharp but keeps hanging in the stretch. (6) SHE’S HEAVENLY scored a big upset last time.

Race 10

(2) HILL I AM closed reasonably well in his first start in eight months. He should be a bit tighter now. (1) DETROIT RAPPER loomed boldly last time but quickly flattened out. He is the best horse in the field if sharp. (10) STITCH IN TIME has the early speed to overcome the outside draw but no form to speak of.

Race 11

(2) M A JACKIE double-drops in class and faces a blank field. (5) FULL EXPLOSION gets a nice driver change to Callahan. (7) KESONS AVAIA blew up the board last time at Pocono.

Race 12

(4) FOUR HOUR NAP was used hard last week and only lost by a few lengths. Let’s give her another shot against a weak field. (5) LOOKOUT STOKK ZONE has been facing tougher and does get a driver switch to Callahan. (8) MISSSOMEBEACH BLUE is another in from out of town where she was racing against better competition. (10) CAMPANILE is sharp enough to contend but will be hurt by the outside post.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Friday 11/4 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 25 - 53 / $109.60 (+$3.60)

BEST BETS: 2 - 4 / $4.80 (-3.20)

Best Bet: STORMIN RUSTLER (3rd)

Spot Play: ROADWAY (2nd)


Race 1

(4) DREAM ROCKER should be plenty tight after a solid second-place finish on Tuesday. I’m not in love with any of these horses but at least this gal has legitimate early speed and should be put in play. (2) KEYSTONE THOMAS has done well here in the past and you can’t fault him for the dull effort last time after getting parked out. (1) PROUD MOMENT is not as fast as he used to be at 11 years old, but he does have the class to pull off an upset.

Race 2

(1) ROADWAY has a 1:51 4/5 win at the Meadowlands this year, which jumps off the page. Don’t be surprised is Ginsburg fires this guy up behind the gate and looks to wire the field. (2) MAYFLOWERMOONSHINE has been stuck with outside posts week after week. Twelve-year-old has back class and might enjoy the better starting spot. (3) BAKIN ON THE BEACH hasn’t raced in almost four weeks but is more than capable of winning in a spot like this one.

Race 3

(4) STORMIN RUSTLER couldn’t have hand-picked a better spot. I know his form isn’t great, but he should be able to take charge here. (8) OUTLAWDANGRUSWATRS has proven versatile and has as good as shot as any in this formless field. (5) CHEYENNE OXE doesn’t have a lot of positive big track experience. That said, at least he has been racing OK of late.

Race 4

(1) SWEET JUSTICE should be firing off the gate as usual and take this field as far as he can. (3) MAGENTA MAN is one of two horses written into the condition on the NW75000 Lifetime also eligible line. If he is ready in his first start since May, watch out. (7) KELSEY’S KEEPSAKE never got involved from post eight at Pocono in her first start for this barn; can improve.

Race 5

(8) VEGAS DREAM was cruising along on the lead when he lost control seemingly due to broken equipment. I’m sticking with him one more time. (9) GRAVE DANCER took dead aim at the top choice and won by default when he stopped suddenly last week. (2) HEAVEN’S GAIT was conservatively driven and had no chance a week ago at 4-5. He could make amends at a better price.

Race 6

(6) ROCK OF CASHEL is a rock-solid competitor who brings an honest effort week after week. He catches a field with plenty of early speed and that should set up his late rally. (4) NOWUCIT NOWUDONT raced somewhat conservatively after seven weeks on the bench. I’m expecting a better effort this time. (8) OPULENT YANKEE drew clear in his qualifier and you can ignore the slow time because the track was very slow with high winds playing a role. If he is ready to fire his best shot, he wins.

Race 7

(8) IMAGINE DRAGON couldn’t handle the stiffer competition in the Breeders Crown. This spot should be right up her alley if McCarthy can keep her in striking position. (6) LYONS RIVER PRIDE moves into a new barn and sports some solid miles on his PP lines in Canada. (1) GWENEEEE J has missed more than five weeks of action. If she is ready to roll, this looks like a great spot.

Race 8

(3) WINDSONG ILLUSION has legitimate excuses for his recent loses, having started from post eight last time and making a break two starts back. This is a very winnable spot and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him show early speed. (8) EARL’S SPEEDER righted the ship with hobbles added last time and two in a row is possible. (4) JACKS TO OPEN has plenty of form and should be a player.

Race 9

(1) PURITY came up short after missing nearly three months of action. Five-year-old mare knows her way around this track and should be in close attendance from the onset. (8) PRINCESS KATIE switches to a bigger track and was able to score multiple times on larger ovals in Canada. (4) ROYAL KNOCKOUT is clearly sharp but keeps hanging in the stretch. (6) SHE’S HEAVENLY scored a big upset last time.

Race 10

(2) HILL I AM closed reasonably well in his first start in eight months. He should be a bit tighter now. (1) DETROIT RAPPER loomed boldly last time but quickly flattened out. He is the best horse in the field if sharp. (10) STITCH IN TIME has the early speed to overcome the outside draw but no form to speak of.

Race 11

(2) M A JACKIE double-drops in class and faces a blank field. (5) FULL EXPLOSION gets a nice driver change to Callahan. (7) KESONS AVAIA blew up the board last time at Pocono.

Race 12

(4) FOUR HOUR NAP was used hard last week and only lost by a few lengths. Let’s give her another shot against a weak field. (5) LOOKOUT STOKK ZONE has been facing tougher and does get a driver switch to Callahan. (8) MISSSOMEBEACH BLUE is another in from out of town where she was racing against better competition. (10) CAMPANILE is sharp enough to contend but will be hurt by the outside post.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Friday 11/4 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 391 - 1122 / $2,133.90

BEST BETS: 51 - 91 / $169.10

Best Bet: FASHION DELIGHT (6th)

Spot Play: BAD NIGHT MARE (2nd)


Race 1

(3) KAITLIN RAE never got involved last week but with tonight's post relief the Allard trainee looms the one to beat. (4) UPFRONTWHOSURLADY gets Bartlett back in the bike and they teamed up to win three back, albeit in a different barn. (1) HARMONY OAKS QUIKE should be good enough to hold position from this spot.

Race 2

(2) BAD NIGHT MARE saved ground and finished with pace last out; one of these weeks she's going to get there. (1) CANACO STAR got away very easily on the front end last week; clearly she can repeat but may have to work harder tonight. (4) HERETIC FRANCO N qualified nicely after that erratic effort last out but the recent import seems like she should be much better than she's showing.

Race 3

(5) NOBLES FINESSE finished nicely from off the pace last out; Sears picks up the drive tonight. (6) PAN STREET USA faltered badly on a night where this barn was bad; clearly he's capable of rebounding. (3) KILLER MARTINI can always be counted on for a share.

Race 4

(1) MASSIVE ATTACK A has been racing well recently without a win to show for it; perhaps the post relief gets her over the top. (7) ROCKAROUND SUE draws another poor post but Bartlett sticks and she's got class to her; on the move early? (4) HER OWN LAND raced well in her debut for Sorentino and she can land a board spot again.

Race 5

(1) KISS OF TERROR came up flat last out at Philly but his prior efforts off the Allard claim were decent; gelding may be a good fit here in this evenly-matched bunch. (8) SHADIOS draws worst but will likely be gunning to the front. (4) SAM'S ESCAPE goes for another new barn off the claim and has been in good form.

Race 6

(1) FASHION DELIGHT couldn't hack an uncovered grind into a sharp front-running winner last week but from this spot Bartlett will be taking charge. (4) ROETHBLISSBERGER drops back down to a winning level and has early speed. (3) ARTIST NIGHT has been razor-sharp and would be no surprise.

Race 7

(2) MOSQUITO BLUE CHIP battled hard and tired versus better last out; Allard trainee is classier than these. (7) CAVIART CARI ANN has been tons better since adding the pacing hobbles and she had plenty left last week. (4) PASULTIMATEDELITE N has clear ability and just needs a smooth trip to contend.

Race 8

(8) MACH IT A PAR was flying to the wire last week after lingering in last and just missed; she will sweep these if anywhere close turning for home. (4) MOMAS GOT A GUN has done nothing wrong since arriving locally and may offer a price again. (7) KRISPY APPLE got away easily on the front end last week; classy mare is always a threat.

Race 9

(3) MASTERSON was an easy pocket-sitting winner last week and can certainly repeat for top connections. (5) DOJEA SOLO can fire to the front, release for a trip and hold his ground late. (2) SPORTSKEEPER gets some post relief which gives him a better chance.

Race 10

(6) SECRETS OUT N isn't the most reliable horse out there but he can crush these if in the mood. (3) SAGE N figures to be more involved from this spot. (7) TIPITINA was a winner two back at this level but needs to navigate the outside post.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey

It is a big day today. That’s right, it is opening day at Aqueduct!

The 10-race card gets underway at 12:10 ET with the opening day feature the $200,000 Nashua (G2) which drew a compact field of five.

Okay, that’s enough about the Big A, it is also Breeders’ Cup Day 1, with a great 10 race card on tap at Santa Anita that features four of the 13 Breeders’ Cup races.

The first Breeders’ Cup race is the $1 million Juvenile Turf (G1) which might be one of the best wagering races over the two days of action. A full field of two-year-olds will head to the gate including three Euro invaders.

Then we get to see Dortmund in action in the $1 million Dirt Mile (G1). The Bob Baffert trainee gets away from California Chrome and is going to be tough to beat as the 6-5 morning line favorite.

Among his foes is last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) champ Runhappy, who makes his second start off the layoff and could be the underlay of the 13 races.

The $1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) drew a full field of 14 including six making their first start in the U.S. The home team has done well in this race, but the tides could shift here as there is a talented group that has made the trip.

The $2 million Distaff (G1) caps off the day, with three champions—Songbird, Beholder and Stellar Wind doing battle in the most anticipated race of the Breeders’ Cup.

However, let’s not discount the supporting cast of Curalina, Forever Unbridled and I’m a Chatterbox, as they are each multiple Garde 1 winners and they all figure to go off at double digit odds.


Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Alw $50,000s (12:20 ET)
#2 Bella Bailar 5-2
#1 Marnesia Big Girl 3-1
#6 Bagema 5-1
#5 Doinwhatshelikes 6-1

Analysis: Bella Bailar took the field gate to wire to beat $50,000 non-winners of two at Keeneland going six furlongs in a sharp effort. She bounced back after fading to finish a well beaten ninth two back against Alw-1 foes at Churchill Downs in her first start against winners. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and is in good hands with the sharp Cox barn that finds a great spot for her here facing starter allowance foes.

Marnesia Big Girl drew off to beat $25,000 non-winners of two by 14 lengths last out at Belmont Park going a mile in a race taken off the turf. Her five previous starts had come on turf and now Rice keeps her on dirt. Her maiden breaker came in the slop at Gulfstream Park last September. She should be able to handle the cut back to seven panels for a barn that is 24% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,5,6
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,5,6 / 1,2,3,5,6

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 OClm $40,000N2X (4:22 ET)
#1 Captain Gaughen 4-1
#5 Call Provision 8-5
#3 Runaway Posse 5-1
#7 Aragonite 8-1

Analysis: Captain Gaughen stalked the early pace and finished evenly in a fourth-place finish against open Alw-2 optional claimers and now returns to the state bred ranks for the hit RRod barn. The gelding also stretches back out to a route and he has five wins on turf and two have been at this distance.

Call Provision as squeezed back coming out of the gate and weakened to finish sixth after tracking the early pace at the Spa going nine furlongs in the Saranac (G3). This guy has no trouble beating state bred Alw-1 foes two back, drawing away to win by 5 1/2 lengths as the chalk. He was only beaten a neck back in June in the Pennine Ridge (G3) in his first go against winners. The deserving chalk for Brown.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,3,5,7
TRI: 1,5 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,3,5,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:

SA Race 5 The Golden State Juvenile Fillies (1:45 PT)
#8 Vai 7-2
#10 How About Zero 8-1
#3 Only You Babe 4-1
#9 My Pi Romancer 10-1

Analysis: Vai is perfect in two starts, breaking her maiden in her debut at Del Mar at 8-1 and then beating state bred Alw-1 optional claimers last out over the main track here as the chalk. The Glatt trainee owns solid early and mid pace numbers and looks as if she will be able to handle the extra furlong.

How About Zero is still a maiden but O'Neill thought enough of her to try her in stakes company in her debut where she ran second. She could not match strides with Ms Wakaya last out as the beaten favorite, settling for the runner up spot. Blinkers are added today and she figures to be in the mix early in this spot. She is out of an In Excess mare that has dropped two winners.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 8,10 / 3,8,9,10
TRI: 8,10 / 3,8,9,10 / 3,4,8,9,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #10 Pure Gemmz 15-1
R3: #5 Boys From Boston 8-1
R5: #10 Browneyed Bachelor 15-1
R6: #6 Tequila Sunday 12-1
R7: #4 Bug Juice 8-1
R8: #7 Aragonite 8-1
R9: #1 Indycott 12-1
R10: #10 Degrees of Freedom 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Friday 11/4 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 7,8,9/2,7,10/1,4,6/2,5,10/8,10 = $32.40

EARLY PICK 4: 2,5,10/8,10/2,6,7/2,5 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 3,4/3,6/1/2,4,10 = $12

MEET STATS: 459 - 1366 / $2396.00 BEST BETS: 72 - 125 / $225.60

SPOT PLAYS: 31 - 125 / $203.20

Best Bet: KILLEAN FINALE (10th)

Spot Play: WHISTYS PARADISE (11th)


Race 1

(8) IMSPORTY raced well in the slop now he goes for Moreau off the claim here; top call in the opener. (7) LOCK N RELOAD has a solid record now tries claimers for the first time. He's worth a long look vs. many suspect foes. (9) JUST A THOUGHT passed most of the field in the back 1/2 to win in his debut in claimers. He could repeat; toss on Pick 5 tickets. (2) THE AVENGER should be able to take a share racing from close range here.

Race 2

(7) PENNIES FROM ABOVE almost got the job done a class higher last week. If she can lay a bit closer this time, she can beat these. (2) POLLAR HALL was beaten by a promising two-year-old colt last time and he should be prominent throughout here. (10) STUCK IN MY SPANKS has been racing against the best female rookie trotters, now she faces elders. She can take a share here if she stays flat. (8) VERY CLASSY should show some early foot then stick around for a share.

Race 3

(1) MISTY DE VIE should be able to sit closer to the pace here and she can convert if she finds live cover. (4) BETTORS UP has a great record and flashed excellent speed in the summer. She will likely be the one to chase down. (6) HOT SPOT HANOVER has been solid in her last two and a threepeat isn't out of the question here. (7) SHE LIGHTS OUT may last longer leaving from a better post here.

Race 4

(5) JMR MACH MEL requalified okay after taking a ton of money in her debut and breaking. I'll give her another try in a wide-open dash. (10) SNAPPY DRESSER has been racing decently and she could pepper the exotics here leaving from the outside. (2) COLUMNIST gets Filion here in an effort to break her maiden in her 28th try; she isn't impossible here. (4) B FIFTEEN looks like she has a bit of talent but she must stay flat.

Race 5

(10) UTOPIA has been in good form for several weeks now he goes for the top barn off the claim here. I am expecting Filion to get him a better position early here, even leaving from the 10 hole. (8) OLYMPIC SON raced well for Henry last time; expect the same here with that driver sticking. (6) KINETIC KING can close for a smaller slice, as he does often. (1) SECOND SISTER steps up off a good effort but merits a look for exotic plays.

Race 6

(6) LAY LADY LAY has been game in defeat in her past two starts after doing the heavy lifting. If she can work out a slightly easier trip, she can beat these. (7) MS MAC N CHEESE drops a few levels here and she has to be considered despite being an infrequent winner this year. (2) BET YA moves inside where she is sure to be heard from; using. (5) D GS PESQUERO has developed an effective closing style. She can share again here.

Race 7

(2) TWIN B INSPIRING is in sharp form and she has beaten better at this meet already; top call. (5) REGAL LUCK picks up Filion here shipping in which should mean she is headed to the front early; using. (7) STONEBRIDGE QUEST drops and may get sent off the gate here, which would make her dangerous. (8) RIDE AWAY SHARK hasn't missed a check in over a month and her good tactical speed should land her a spot near the front early here.

Race 8

(3) DOMEDOMEDOME drops to a level where she should be a top contender leaving from a good post here. (4) JETPEDIA has the speed to contend here and perhaps Davis Jr. will look for a spot closer to the front. (1) CROWN CLASSIC quite often takes a smaller share and she could do just that leaving from the inside here. (9) SCARY GOOD is in good form and he stands a decent chance of landing on the ticket here.

Race 9

(6) SANDBETWEENURTOES missed four weeks prior to her last start and came up dull. Returning quicker could make all the difference here. (3) ROCK N ROLL EXAMPLE roared home to win in this class last week. She's the one to hold off late. (1) WRANGLER MAGIC should get a good trip here leaving from the rail and take a share. (5) SAYITALL BB never missed a check and she should take one here.

Race 10

(1) KILLEAN FINALE draws well coming off a lifetime-best score; call to repeat. (5) SELLING THE DREAM faces easier here and also draws well; the main threat. (4) KATIES BEACH is 3 for her last 54 but is in good form and she can hit the ticket. (7) NAUGHTY LADY B was 2nd to the choice from the same post last week. She can take a smaller share here with a similar effort.

Race 11

(4) WHISTYS PARADISE showed her patented late kick off last week and if she brings a similar effort here she can win this despite stepping up in class. (10) MISS COCO LUCK drops a couple of classes here and may try to wire this. (2) BAROCKEY gets back to a regular cycle here and could be a lot closer at the finish. (5) ST LADS PENNY LANE and (8) P L HURRICANE are both great mares to use underneath in exotics