Friday 11/21/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Magic have been stellar against the spread
Justin Hartling

The Orlando Magic may be inconsistent on the court, but there is no doubt they have been dominant at the window. Orlando is 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games.

The Magic have covered games by an average of nine points during their hot ATS streak.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trail Blazers the hottest ATS play in the league
Justin Hartling

There may be no hotter team in the NBA than the Portland Trail Blazers. In the past eight games, the Blazers are 7-1 straight up and against the spread.

Portland has been dominating teams and have an average margin of victory of +11.25 over the eight game streak.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB Props - Kentucky Wildcats

In case you didn't notice, the college basketball regular season began last week and a lot of the attention has been focused on top-ranked Kentucky.

Head coach John Calipari and the Wildcats opened the season as an overwhelming 7/5 favorite (Bet $100 to win $140) to win the 2014-15 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship.

The Wildcats have started the season 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread, which included an impressive 72-40 romp against No. 5 Kansas this past Tuesday.

The blowout victory and dominating defensive performance by Kentucky has many pundits asking -- Can the Wildcats go undefeated?

Oddsmakers are now offering bettors a chance to bet that prop.

Yes +800 (Bet $100 to win $800)
No -1200 (Bet $100 to win $8.33)

Considering Kentucky won't be an underdog in any game this season, the return on YES looks very promising and those odds will drop quickly if the Wildcats enter 2015 with no losses.

For those of you that believe Calipari is a gasbag and his new crop of kids will crumble at least once, you'll have to lay 1/12 odds. Even though he's arguably the best recruiter ever in college basketball, he only has one championship to show for it.

2014-15 Kentucky Schedule

Kentucky will play 18 conference games in the SEC and if it keeps winning, three more in the SEC Tournament from Nashville. To win the NCAA Tournament, Kentucky would have to capture six more victories. If the Wildcats actually pull off the feat, they'll be joining elite company.

Since the tournament began in 1938, only eight teams finished their seasons with unbeaten records.

1939: LIU Brooklyn
1956: San Francisco 29-0
1957: North Carolina 32-0
1964: UCLA 30-0
1967: UCLA 30-0
1972: UCLA 30-0
1973: UCLA 30-0
1976: Indiana 32-0

Last year, Wichita State became the first team in 10 years to finish the regular season unbeaten as it went 31-0. The Shockers went 35-1 last season, with their lone loss coming in the Sweet Sixteen to Kentucky. Prior to the Shockers unblemished performance, Saint Joseph's went 27-0 in the 2003-04 season.

Prior to those schools, only five other teams were able to accomplish this feat.

1991: UNLV (27-0)
1979: Indiana State (29-0)
1979: Alcorn State (27-0)
1976: Rutgers (28-0)
1976: Indiana (27-0)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB Snow forces Buffalo to postpone game
The Sports Xchange

The NFL matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets scheduled for Sunday is not the only game in town impacted by the wintry weather in western New York.

Friday night's college basketball game between the Buffalo Bulls and Montana State Bobcats in Alumni Arena was postponed after the visiting team was unable to get a flight to Buffalo because of the heavy snowfall that has paralyzed the area.

The two teams are hoping to reschedule the nonconference game at a later date.

An NHL game between the Buffalo Sabres and New York Rangers scheduled for Friday night also was postponed. No makeup date has been set.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Oregon won first two games by 42-17 points, scoring 95 ppg; Ducks are almost whole new team, but they've made 41.1% of 3's first two games. Toledo lost first road game 87-78 at VCU Tuesday, turning ball over 21 times in game they led 45-42 at half. Rockets has four starters back from 27-7 team that went 14-4 in MAC LY, but got upset in MAC tourney.

Auburn lost by 31 at Colorado late Monday is ESPN marathon, after it won first game by 10 over Milwaukee; Tigers have two starters back from LY, are little short on talent this season. UL-Lafayette turned ball over 25 times on 75 possessions in 64-53 loss at Tulsa Monday; Ragin' Cajuns lost three starters from 23-12 team that was 11-7 in Sun Belt.

Georgia State was just 5-19 from arc in 81-58 loss at Iowa State Monday when they were only down 6 at half; Panthers have three starters back from LY's 25-9 team that went 17-1 in Sun Belt but got upset by ULL in conference tourney. Colorado State won its opener by 17 over Montana; Rams made 12-27 from arc, led Griz 51-30 at halftime.

Kansas State made 58% of its 3's in beating couple stiff teams by 30-10 points to open season; Wildcats have three starters back from LYs 20-13 team that went 10-8 in Big X. Long Beach State lost by 23 at Xavier, by 5 at BYU in its two D-I road games, allowing 96 ppg. 49ers always play too hard a schedule in pre-conference. K-State is on its way to Maui.

Dayton nipped Texas A&M yesterday on tip at buzzer; Flyers forced 21 turnovers, survived 2-18 shooting from arc. Flyers lost three starters from LY's 26-11 team that made Elite 8. . Only two Flyers played more than 27:00. UConn had easier time beating Charleston 65-57. Huskies allowed 55 ppg in winning first two games over stiffs.

West Virginia has had lot of turnover last couple years; they hammered George Mason by 26 yesterday- they allowed 58.3 ppg in winning first three games- they forced 24 turnovers yesterday. Boston College upset New Mexico 69-65 yesterday, after losing previous gasme to UMass by 9. Eagles shot 67% inside arc against the Lobos.

Miami whacked Drexel hard yesterday after they upset Florida Monday, good sign for Hurricane squad that is deep at guard. Miami made 46.8% of its 3's in winning first three games. Akron beat USC by 20 yesterday without its best player Treadwell; they held USC to 28.3% from floor and only played one guy more than 28:00 (led by 12 at the half).

South Carolina should have crowd edge in Charleston; Gamecocks waxed Cornell by 24 yesterday, after losing by 4 to Baylor earlier in week. SC protected ball better in first three games, turning it over only 15% of its possessions (21.3% LY). Charlotte needed double OT to beat Penn State yesterday; 49ers had four of its guys play 33+ minutes.

UNLV has very young team that was fortunate to win its irst two home games over Morehead/Sam Houston by total of three points. Rebels are shooting just 29% from arc, 51% from line, figure to struggle on road vs Stanford team that has three starters back from 23-13 team that made it to Sweet 16 LY. Cardinal won first two games by 15-11 points.

Temple won its opener 40-37 over american, then beat Louisiana Tech 82-75 after trailing by 4 at half, a very solid win; Owls were 34-49 from line in that game- they're not going to get that many calls here vs Duke squad that beat Michigan State 81-71 Tuesday in Indianapolis. Spartans shot 63% inside arc, only 25% outside it. Good test for Owls here.

Texas was down 6 at half, rallied to beat Iowa 71-57 last night; only two Longhorns played more than 26:00. Texas allowed 53.3 ppg in winning its first three games this season. California allowed 58.3 ppg in winning its first three games, basically winning road game over Syracuse in MSG last night. Singer didn't score but had eight assists for the Bears.

Syracuse whipped pair of stiffs to open season but shot just 36% in loss to Cal last night; losing PG Ennis to pros after only one year is a problem for Orange, who played four guys 30+ minutes last night. Iowa was up 6 at the half vs Texas, lost by 14, shooting 29.6% from floor. Hawkeyes' White was 14-16 from line; no one else scored more than 10 points.

LSU needed OT to nip Texas Tech Tuesday in game they trailed by 12 at half; Tigers were just 2-19 from arc, were down 4 with 1:01 left in game, but rallied to tie game and move to 2-0. Old Dominion beat Richmond by 6 Tuesday in local rivalry game; Monarchs turned ball over only 9 times in tense game they trailed by a point with only 4:11 left.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bad Company - Week 13
By Kevin Rogers

Three weeks remain in the college football regular season, while the next two weekends are full cards. This Saturday, several of the struggling teams that are mentioned in this piece look to find some way to cover as an underdog, while a majority of them are receiving plenty of points. We’ll begin with Indiana, who has the daunting task of hanging with Ohio State.

Indiana (+34 ½) at Ohio State – 12:00 PM EST

The Hoosiers have been a fade machine this season, as IU has covered just twice in 10 games, coming off last week’s 45-23 defeat at Rutgers as 9 ½-point underdogs. Indiana actually led at halftime, 13-10, but the Hoosiers’ defense allowed 35 points in the second half, giving up at least 34 points in five conference losses. It’s not even worth taking the points with the Hoosiers, who are 1-4-1 ATS as an underdog, with the only cover coming in an upset of Missouri back in September.

The Buckeyes are a machine right now, going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in the past eight games since losing to Virginia Tech. Ohio State didn’t cover in last week’s win at Minnesota, but the Buckeyes have taken care of business at the Horseshoe for bettors by covering four straight home contests. However, OSU hasn’t cashed in the past three meetings with Indiana as a heavy favorite, as the Hoosiers covered in a 42-14 loss last season as 33 ½-point ‘dogs.

Texas-San Antonio (+9) at Western Kentucky – 12:00 PM EST

The Roadrunners began the season with a pair of covers against Houston and Arizona, but UTSA has turned into pointspread poison since by posting a 1-7 ATS record the past eight games. UTSA snapped a three-game skid in last week’s 12-10 comeback victory over Southern Mississippi as seven-point favorite, while scoring just 19 points in the previous three games combined.

Western Kentucky hasn’t been great either against the number, covering three of its past nine contests. The Hilltoppers dominated Army last week, 52-24 to cash as seven-point favorites, improving to 2-3 ATS as a home favorite. WKU’s offense has been nearly unstoppable at home this season, scoring at least 35 points in all five home contests, but the Hilltoppers haven’t covered back-to-back games in 2014.

SMU (+28) at UCF – 12:00 PM EST

The Mustangs are a staple in this piece in each week, but that happens when you haven’t won a game in nine tries this season. SMU squandered a late 13-0 lead in last week’s 14-13 defeat to USF, but the Mustangs picked up a cover as 9 ½-point underdogs, the second straight ATS win. The only positive to come out from last week’s loss was SMU allowing its least amount of points all season, while the Mustangs are 1-4 ATS as an underdog of 21 points or more.

One season removed from a Fiesta Bowl victory, UCF started this season slow out of the gate with an 0-2 SU/ATS mark. But the Knights have rebounded with a 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS record in the past seven games, while allowing 14 points or less five times. UCF has won 12 straight conference games at Bright House Networks Stadium since 2011, posting an 8-4 ATS record in this span.

New Mexico (+22) at Colorado State – 1:30 PM EST

Even though the Lobos are 3-7 this season, New Mexico has managed to cover four straight games, including in a 28-21 loss to Utah State as 20-point underdogs last Saturday. The Lobos are actually 4-0 ATS in four tries as a road underdog, while all five Mountain West losses have come by 11 points or fewer. The strike against this Lobos’ squad is their rushing defense, which has been shredded for an average of 277 yards a game.

Colorado State is fresh off the bye week, as the Rams look to extend their winning streak to nine with a victory on Saturday. CSU has covered six times during this hot stretch, but didn’t cash in two home wins over Wyoming and Utah State back in October. Last season, the Rams ripped up the Lobos in Albuquerque, 66-42, the fourth straight win in the series for Colorado State.

Tulsa (+20) at Houston – 3:00 PM EST

The Golden Hurricane has been anything but this season at 2-8, while winning just once since the start of September. Tulsa’s only win since knocking off Tulane in double-overtime in the season opener came against SMU, which is no big feat. The Golden Hurricane covered in losses at Temple and Memphis as double-digit ‘dogs, but TU has allowed at least 28 points in all six AAC games, against plenty of teams that aren’t offensively efficient.

The Cougars look to rebound after getting tripped up by Tulane as 17-point favorites, 31-24 two weeks ago. That was just the second ATS loss for Houston in the past seven games, while trying to sure up its defense after giving up 37 points combined in the three previous contests prior to the Tulane loss. Houston hasn’t had much luck at home with Tulsa in the last two meetings, dropping each matchup in 2013 and 2011, including a 41-7 defeat last season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF opening line report: Motivated Baylor big home chalk vs. Oklahoma State
By COLIN KELLY

Oklahoma State at Baylor (-26.5)

After a stretch in which every weekend brought with it the next game of the year, Week 13 of the college football season doesn’t have a single game that screams out, “Marquee matchup.” But the games always matter to the bettors, no matter how big or small, and there are still some contests that could help shape the first-ever four-team playoff.

Baylor is in one of those contests, hosting an Oklahoma State squad that would love to play spoiler. The Bears (8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) are coming off their bye week following a pair of blowout victories – 60-14 as a 34.5-point home favorite over Kansas, and a 48-14 upset of Oklahoma as a 5.5-point underdog.

The Cowboys (5-5 SU, 3-7 ATS) had much higher aspirations this year, but they drove their season into the ditch with four consecutive blowout losses – 42-9 at Texas Christian, 34-10 against West Virginia, 48-14 at Kansas State and 28-7 to visiting Texas on Saturday.

“The Cowboys are in a freefall and don’t appear focused to finish the season,” said John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu. “Baylor has to be feeling good coming off a bye and a trouncing of Oklahoma. There is also the added motivation to move up in the college football playoff ranking. They’ll be out for blood here, and the bettors will lay the hefty chalk."

“We’re also expecting a ton of teaser liability on the Bears so we had to inflate this line.”

Boston College Eagles at Florida State Seminoles (-20)

You’d think Florida State’s luck would run out at some point, but the Seminoles (10-0 SU, 3-7 SU) have now won 26 in a row SU. The defending national champs trailed 16-0 at Miami early in the second quarter Saturday, but pulled out a 30-26 win and cover as a 1.5-point fave.

Boston College (6-4 SU and ATS) enters off its bye week, after a 38-19 home loss to Louisville as a 3-point pup.

“The Seminoles keep playing with fire, and eventually they’ll get burned, but probably not this week,” Lester said. “It’s a sandwich spot for Florida State, with Florida on deck, but I actually think the Seminoles show up here. Boston College coach Steve Addazio admits his squad is a work in progress, and it’ll do well to stay within three scores.”

Vanderbilt Commodores at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-29.5)

Mississippi State was finally dealt its first loss of the season, leaving no teams unblemished in the Southeastern Conference. The Bulldogs (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS), perhaps surprisingly 10-point underdogs at Alabama on Saturday, rallied from a 19-3 deficit but fell short 25-20.

Still, the Bulldogs remain in the thick of the four-team playoff chase, so Vanderbilt could be the perfect bounce-back opponent. The Commodores (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) come in rested, with a week off after a 34-10 home loss to Florida catching 14.5 points.

While many will view this game as a letdown for Mississippi State, I think they’ll avoid the hangover. Dan Mullen is a great coach who will have his kids ready, knowing that there’s still an opportunity to get into the playoff,” Lester said. “Vandy will be well prepared off the bye and can probably keep this contest inside the number.”

Southern California Trojans at UCLA Bruins (-3)

The battle for Los Angeles bragging rights will feature two fresh teams, with USC having played last Thursday and UCLA coming off its bye week. The Bruins (8-2 SU, 3-7 ATS) have won four in a row SU (2-2 ATS), including a 44-30 victory at Washington laying 6 points. The Trojans (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) fended off California 38-30, falling short as a hefty 14-point fave.

“You have to love the Victory Bell rivalry, and the pranks are often the best part,” Lester said. “But this one should be good because we have two very evenly matched teams. UCLA controls its own destiny to play in the Pac-12 championship, while USC can get there if certain scenarios play out. There’s no shortage of motivation on either side, obviously, and we see this as a classic tossup.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Oklahoma State at Baylor November 22, 07:30 EST

The Oklahoma State would love to play spoiler but 'Pokes' are in a freefall with blowout losses to TCU (42-9), West Virginia (34-10), K-State (48-14) and most recently Texas (28-7). On the other side, Baylor Bears off a pair of blowout victories vs Kansas (60-14), Oklahoma (48-14) prior to their bye won't let this one slip away especially in Waco where Bears have won 14 straight home games including the first four at the brand new McLane Stadium. Consider laying the lumber knowing Bears are 4-0-1 ATS following a bye week, 23-4 ATS in their last 27 home games.


Boston College Eagles at Florida State Seminoles November 22, 03:30 EST

Seminoles once again escaped disaster. Down 23-10 at the half at Miami, the Noles' outscored Canes 20-3 in the second half leaving Sun Life Stadium with a 30-26 victory as 1.5 point favorite extending the SU streak to 26 games. Seminoles not good bets this season posting a cash draining 3-7 mark against the betting line will be playing with fire this weekend. Noles have been pegged 19.5 to 20.0 point favorite hosting Boston College (6-4 SU/ATS). Noles 1-7 ATS this season laying double digits, 1-5 ATS L6 laying 18 or more points could get burned. Eagles despite their woes have cashed 5-of-7 as DD underdogs and own a smart 3-1 ATS record last four in Noles back-yard.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS)

This week: -9 vs. Texas-San Antonio

Count on Western Kentucky playing with a sense of urgency Saturday. The Hilltoppers can win four straight at home for the first time since 2003, earn five home victories in a season for the first time since 2004, and—most importantly—they can become bowl eligible for a fourth consecutive year.

Standing in their way is Texas-San Antonio, which barely won 12-10 over Southern Miss (3-8, 1-6 USA) last weekend and is still 3-7 overall. Head coach Larry Coker didn’t sound positive when he spoke to the media on Tuesday.

“We’re not practicing well enough to win right now, especially on offense,” Coker admitted. “We got to take some leadership and we got to get a lot better. If we don’t, we have no chance on Saturday.”

Texas-San Antonio third-string QB Austin Robinson may get another start with Tucker Carter and Blake Bogenschutz likely out. The Roadrunners are 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall.

Team to beware: San Jose State Spartans (3-7 SU, 3-7 ATS)

This week: +13 at Utah State

How bad was San Jose State last week? Well, to say it nice, the Spartans were less than opportunistic. Despite not punting a single time, they didn’t score a single point in a 13-0 home loss to Hawaii. Their possessions (not including at the ends of both halves) resulted in three missed field goals (two blocked), two fumbles (one on a punt return), one interception, and three turnovers on downs. San Jose State was an abominable 0 for 6 inside the red zone.

“I'm sorry people had to observe that,” head coach Ron Caragher said afterward. “It's not acceptable and I take responsibility…. It was a brutal game.”

The botched field goals led to the turnovers on downs, as Caragher became reluctant to send in the kicking game even when well within range. He’s having an open placekicking competition this week prior to Friday’s game at Utah State.

Total team: Boise State Broncos (8-2 SU, 7-3 O/U)

This week: 62 at Wyoming

Wyoming safety Jesse Sampson has missed the last two games with a knee injury and is questionable against Boise State Saturday. In just six outings this season, Sampson has 33 tackles and four pass breakups. Fellow safety Darrenn White is out indefinitely with a leg issue. In only seven games, White has 42 tackles—still fifth best on the team.

This is bad news for the Cowboys, who are going up against an offense that features reigning Mountain West Player of the Week Grant Hedrick. The senior quarterback passed for 367 yards, rushed for 131, and accounted for six total touchdowns in a 38-29 win over San Diego State last weekend.

The Over is 5-0 in Boise State’s last five overall. It is 5-1 in Wyoming’s last six overall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF line watch: Wait and watch Arizona-Utah spread climb
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears (-27)

Baylor opened as a 24-point home favorite over Oklahoma State and early money quickly came in on the favorite pushing the line up to -27. I expect more money to come in on Baylor throughout the week, so this line could potentially reach the key number of -28.

Oklahoma State is a bad football team. The Cowboys have lost four straight by 33, 24, 34, and 21-point margins. Their offense scored 14 points or less in all four of those games. Baylor comes in fresh off its bye with revenge in its heart after losing 49-17 as a 7.5-point favorite at Oklahoma State last season.

Lay the points now with Baylor before the line goes up to and possibly higher than the key number of -28.

Spread to wait on

Arizona Wildcats (+4) at Utah Utes

Utah was initially posted as a 3-point home favorite over Arizona and money quickly came in on the Utes, pushing this line up to -3.5 and even to -4 in some locations.

Arizona comes in off an uninspiring 27-26 home win over Washington, while Utah won 20-17 at Stanford as a 10-point underdog. The Utes have now played in seven consecutive highly-emotional games and they’ve been underdogs in five of those games, including four straight outings.

Utah is now laying points in a bad situational spot, so the Wildcats hold the value as a road underdog in this game, especially if the line goes up higher.

Total to watch

Stanford Cardinal at California Golden Bears (61)

Stanford and California are built in different ways. The Cardinal win with defense while the Golden Bears win with offense. Stanford is only averaging 23.9 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. The Cardinal defense only allows 16.5 points per game on 4.1 yards per play.

California has a potent offense that is averaging 40.7 points per game on 6.3 yards per play. The Golden Bears’ defense is a sieve, giving up 39.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play. Stanford is currently a 6-point road favorite, so the oddsmakers will likely shade this total lower based on the weak offense and strong defense of the Cardinal.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors beware the week before college football's biggest rivalries
By KEVIN CAUSEY

Next week is Rivalry Week in college football, which makes Week 13 “Lookahead Week” for NCAAF bettors. Many programs could get caught looking past this week’s matchup and to their yearly grudge match.

We look at some of the more heated rivalries in college football and how those teams perform the week before butting heads over the past 10 seasons.

Rivalry: Oregon vs. Oregon State (Civil War)

How does Oregon perform the week before?

4-6 SU, 1-9 ATS, 7-3 O/U

How does Oregon State perform the week before?

7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS, 4-6 O/U

What does this mean?

Injuries to the Oregon offensive line have held back most books from opening this game. It also doesn’t help Ducks backers that Oregon is 0-5 ATS over the last five years and 1-9 ATS in the last 10 years the week before the Civil War. Oregon State tends to play well the week before the Oregon game and is currently a 6.5-point dog against Washington.

Rivalry: Michigan vs. Ohio State (The Game)

How does Michigan perform the week before?

5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS, 7-3 O/U

How does Ohio State perform the week before?

7-3 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U

What does this mean?

Both of these teams, especially Ohio State seem a little guilty of looking ahead. Ohio State is a 34.5-point favorite against Indiana and, while the Hoosiers haven't played well of late, it takes a lot to paste a conference foe by that many points. Michigan is a 5-point favorite against Maryland.

Rivalry: Alabama vs. Auburn (Iron Bowl)

During the last 10 years, Auburn had five byes in weeks heading up to the Iron Bowl with Alabama enjoying one in 2009 and both teams had one game that had no total on the board.

How does Alabama perform the week before?

5-4 SU, 2-5-2 ATS, 3-5 O/U

How does Auburn perform the week before?

4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U

What does this mean?

As good as these two teams have been recently, these trends don't reflect their success. With both teams scheduling down this week, Alabama faces Western Carolina and Auburn faces Samford, put a check mark in the win column. As for the spread, some places will book these FCS punching bags with massive lines.

Rivalry: Arizona vs. Arizona State (Duel in the Desert)

How does Arizona perform the week before?

4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 O/U

How does Arizona State perform the week before?

5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 6-4 O/U

What does this mean?

The trends definitely aren't telling us anything about this Pac-12 bad blood. But, if you look at an eight-year window, instead of a 10, Arizona is 6-2 ATS in its last eight before facing ASU. Arizona is a 4-point dog at Utah – tough to look past the Utes - and Arizona State is a 16-point favorite against Washington State.

Rivalry: Notre Dame vs. USC

This rivalry is a little strange to look at because both teams have had byes in weeks leading up the games. Notre Dame had a bye in 2004, 2005, 2009, 2011 and 2013. Southern Cal had a bye in 2004, 2008 and 2009. And what makes it even more difficult is USC is playing rival UCLA this week.

How does Notre Dame perform the week before?

3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 0-4-1 O/U

How does USC perform the week before?

5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U

What does this mean?

Notre Dame is a 3.5-point favorite versus Louisville this week but has lost three of its last four, including three straight blown covers. Quarteback Everett Golson is nursing a sore shoulder and the Irish are without defensive line leader Sheldon Day, to go along with other missing cogs on the stop unit. As mentioned above, the Trojans won’t risk looking past rival UCLA this weekend. Southern Cal has failed to cover in four of its last five meetings with the Bruins.

Rivalry: Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss (Egg Bowl)

How does Mississippi State perform the week before?

3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS, 7-3 O/U

How does Ole Miss perform the week before?

2-8 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 O/U

What does this mean?

These trends are muddled a bit by the fact that both of these schools are playing at a higher level this season then they have in the past. Ole Miss is a 3.5-point favorite at Arkansas while Mississippi State gives 29 points to Vanderbilt at home Saturday.

Rivalry: Kansas vs. Kansas State

Kansas had three byes prior to the Kansas State game in 2006, 2010 and 2012. Kansas State had a bye in 2012.

How does Kansas perform the week before?

1-6 SU, 4-3 ATS, 2-6 O/U

How does Kansas State perform the week before?

3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS, 9-0 O/U

What does this mean?

Kansas finds itself in a dreaded sandwich spot, coming off a strong effort versus TCU last week. A letdown could be in store for the Jayhawks, even with them getting 25 points in Norman Saturday. The Wildcats don’t have the same healthy respect for its yearly rival as other programs might have – and can you blame them. Kansas State won’t be looking past West Virginia as a 2.5-point road underdog Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Friday's games

Rice won seven of last eight games with UTEP, scoring 39.3 ppg in last three; Miners lost last four visits here, by 38-4-1-8 points. Underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in last 12 series games, five of last seven here. Owls are 6-1 as favorites this year; undefeated Marshall ended their six-game win streak last week. UTEP won four of its last five games, covering all five; they're 3-2 as road dogs this season. Miners allowed 16.5 ppg last four games, after allowing 37.2 ppg in first six.

San Diego State won last four games with Air Force; Falcons lost four of last five visits here, losing 28-9/27-25 in last two. Underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in last 16 series games, 5-2 in last seven here. Air Force won last four games, scoring 37.8 ppg; they're 2-1 as underdogs this year, are 3-6 in last nine games as a road dog. Aztecs blew 20-0 lead at Boise in 38-29 loss last week; they're 2-4 in last six games as home favorites. San Diego State is 5-0 if it allows 21 or less points, 0-5 if it allows more.

Utah State won last five games with San Jose State, covering four times, averaging 278.6 rushing yards; they won 40-12/49-27 the last two years. Spartans lost three of last four visits here, losing by 1-15-7. Aggies are way down the QB depth chart; they are 3-4 as favorites this year, 0-4 when laying double digits. San Jose lost last four games, none by more than 14 points; they lost 13-0 at home last week but never punted, with three missed FGs, three turnovers, losing ball three times on downs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Pac-12 Showdown'

Cross-town rivals collide in a critical Pac-12 Conference showdown, as USC Trojans challenge UCLA Bruins at the Rose Bowl. Trojans come into this game sitting atop the Pac-12 South Division standings with a 6-2 conference mark (5-3 ATS), 7-3 record overall (6-4 ATS). The Bruins hit the field 5-2 within the conference (3-4 ATS), 8-2 on the campaign (3-7 ATS) and are half game back tied for second place with Arizona, Arizona State. The Bruins finally putting the pieces together winning four straight (2-2 ATS) will have a boat load of confidence entering the game knowing they've beaten Trojans by double digits each of the past two years. Look for Bruins to make it three in-a-row vs the cross-town rivals while improving their 4-1 ATS mark hosting Southern Cal which has a money burning 5-11 ATS skid on the road, 5-8 ATS slide away in conference play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 13
By Joe Williams

There are just two weekends of Atlantic Coast Conference regular season football left, and there are still some HUGE games to be played. Thursday's North Carolina-Duke game will have a huge impact on whether or not Duke has a chance to return to the ACC Championship Game. Georgia Tech can just sit idly by and watch, as they're off this week and done with their ACC portion of the schedule in an odd twist. They play rival Georgia next week after their bye. If the Blue Devils slip up against UNC or Wake Forest next week, Georgia Tech is in.

One of the more underrated games on the card this weekend might be Louisville-Notre Dame. The game has lost a lot of luster since the Irish have gone in the tank recently, but this still could be a very entertaining game. It's very important for Louisville, who could get a signature road win and secure an upper-tier bowl with a win. Nationally, not many have talked about this game, but it looks good on paper.


2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 6-4 3-3 6-4 4-5-1
Clemson 7-3 6-2 4-6 4-6
Duke 8-2 4-2 6-3-1 2-7
Florida State 10-0 7-0 3-7 4-6
Georgia Tech 9-2 6-2 7-4 6-5
Louisville 7-3 5-3 6-4 3-6-1
Miami (Fla.) 6-4 3-3 5-5 3-7
North Carolina 5-5 3-3 4-6 5-4
North Carolina State 6-5 2-5 6-5 5-5-1
Pittsburgh 4-6 2-4 3-6-1 5-4-1
Syracuse 3-7 1-5 4-6 2-7-1
Virginia 4-6 2-4 6-3-1 3-7
Virginia Tech 5-5 2-4 4-6 3-6
Wake Forest 2-8 0-6 5-5 3-7


North Carolina at Duke (Thurs. - ESPN, 7:30p.m. ET)
The Tar Heels are looking to secure bowl eligibility, and an even bigger prize would be knocking their rivals out of contention for the ACC Championship Game. While UNC is 4-1 ATS in their past five games, they are just 5-11 ATS in their past 16 road games - even though this is just a short jaunt up 15-501, and essentially a home game just eight miles or so from campus. I'll be at this game, and it doesn't come close to their rivalry on the hardwood, but lately it has been a spirited battle when the Battle of the Blues takes place on the gridiron. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five installments of this series. Duke is 6-1-1 ATS in its past eight at home, and 15-5-1 ATS in their past 21 games overall, not including last week's disappointing 17-16 home loss to Virginia Tech.

Virginia Tech at Wake Forest (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Virginia Tech has been an odd team to figure out. They have road wins against ranked teams Ohio State and Duke, but don't count them out from laying an egg in a game they are supposed to win. They're installed as 15-point road favorites in Winston-Salem this weekend, but they're still just 2-10-1 ATS in their past 13 against a team with a losing record, and 2-6 ATS in their past eight ACC games. They're also 3-12 ATS in their next 15 following an ATS win. Wake Forest simply cannot score. The under has hit in 22 of their past 29 games overall, and is 19-7 in their past 26 ACC battles. The under is also 5-1 in their past six home outings. Virginia Tech has had the under come in four times in the past five, and is 6-1 in their past seven conference battles. Still, a college line of 39 screams stay away. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, with the Hokies 4-0 ATS in the past four.

Syracuse at Pittsburgh (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
The only interesting thing about this game is the Panthers trying to keep their flickering bowl eligibility hopes alive. Does Pitt even deserve it after their up-and-down season? The Orange head in 4-0 ATS in the past four road games, and 4-0 ATS in their past four against a team with a losing overall record, and they're 7-3 ATS in their past 10 on grass. Pitt is on a slide, going 1-3-1 ATS in their past five conference tilts, 1-4 ATS in their past five home outings, and 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight overall. However, Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in their past five home games against Syracuse, and 4-0-1 ATS in their past five against the Orange overall. The favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings between these two former Big East rivals. Pittsburgh is favored by seven and a hook, and that seems a bit extreme, but it's hard to back the 'Cuse, too.

Georgia State at Clemson (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)
Clemson is a 40.5-point favorite against the Panthers of the Sun Belt, making the quick trip up I-85 to the upstate. The Tigers are done in ACC play, finishing up with South Carolina next week. Might they be looking ahead to a rivalry game they desperately need to win? It's uncertain if the team will risk playing QB Deshaun Watson (knee) in this game, or try to keep him healthy for the 'Cocks. Watson suffered a lateral collateral ligament injury in last week's game, but avoided the dreaded ACL tear some feared. QB Cole Stoudt has been atrocious when leading this offense, and the Panthers might be the play with 40 points to play with if the backup gets the nod as expected.

Louisville at Notre Dame (NBC, 3:30 p.m.)
This game features a pair of 7-3 teams, but one team is happy to be where they are, while another is stunned to have three losses after such high hopes just a few weeks ago. Louisville comes in with a freshman QB Reggie Bonnafon leading the way after Will Gardner (knee) was lost for the season due to a season-ending knee injury. Still, the Cardinals have given him experience, and he has shown he is a good thrower and a dual threat. Louisville is 5-2 ATS in its past seven against teams with a winning record, and 23-8 ATS in the past 31 road games, but that all appears out the window with a frosh under center. The Irish are 6-1 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record, although they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. Still, as three-point favorites at home, you have to like Everett Golson, even with all of his mistakes, over a newbie signal caller.

Boston College at Florida State (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
The Eagles hit the road for a somber Tallahassee following on-campus shootings. Not that it is important, but the school has announced all athletic events will be played as scheduled. Condolensces to the victims of such a senseless tragedy. Boston College heads in 9-1 ATS in their past 10 following an ATS loss, and they're 11-5 ATS in their next 16 games following offensive production of 20 or fewer points in their previous outing. However, they're still just 5-11 ATS in the past 16 road games. Florida State heads in just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 overall, and 1-4 ATS in the past five at home. But they're sure to come out with a lot of emotion, and the football game serves as a catharsis for the Florida State community. At 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games against a team with a winning record, and emotion on their side, we might see the best from the Seminoles all season. The newly re-crowned No. 1 team in the land is a 17-point favorite.

Miami-Florida at Virginia (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)
Virginia looks to end its slide and keep their bowl hopes alive with a win against Miami. The Hurricanes look for a rare road victory to keep their possibilities of a decent bowl alive. The Canes are just 1-4 ATS in their past five road games, and 6-14 ATS in their past 20 against a team with a losing record. Including last weekend's crushing home loss to Florida State, a game which they looked to be in control at times, they're just 4-9 ATS in the past 13 conference outings. Will there be any hangover at Scott Stadium for UM? Virginia covered last week, and they're 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine against a team with a winning record. They're also 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven at home. They're a 5.5-point dog on their own grass, and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings in this series. However, the road team is also 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over has hit in four of the past five meetings, too, although the under has been the play for both sides this season. The under is 6-0 in Miami's past six ACC games, and 4-1 in their past five on the road. The under is 5-0 in UVA's past five overall, and 7-0 in their past seven conference tilts.

BYE WEEKS
Georgia Tech, North Carolina State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 13
By ASA

GAME OF THE WEEK

Wisconsin (-9.5) @ Iowa – 3:30 PM EST

The Badgers – along with the Buckeyes – are playing their best football right now. There’s not much left to say about the performance of Melvin Gordon last week. He rushed for an FBS-record 408 yards along with 4 TD in just three quarters of work in Wisconsin’s blowout win over Nebraska. He absolutely couldn’t be stopped it will go down as one of the most memorable performances in Badgers history. Gordon got most of the publicity, but it’s hard to overlook the impact that the defense has had for Wisconsin this season. They held the Huskers to just 180 total yards and 11 first downs and currently rank as the top overall defense in YPG allowed, 3rd against the pass, 5th against the rush, and 3rd in scoring defense. With the Badgers’ blend of unstoppable rushing attack and stingy defense, they’re a serious threat to come out atop the B1G West and present a major challenge to OSU in the B1G Championship. Before that happens, however, Wisconsin will have to take care of business in a tricky road game at Iowa this Saturday.

Iowa returns home after back-to-back roadies, the latest of which was a 30-14 win at Illinois. It was a dominant performance all around as the Hawkeyes notched 587 total yards and 26 first downs while holding Illinois to just 235 total yards and 12 first downs. It was encouraging for Iowa that QB’s Rudock and Beathard combined to complete 17-of-24 passes for 283 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT while the rushing attack notched 304 yards on 55 carries (5.5 YPC). It’s concerning for Iowa that a team they played two weeks ago (Minnesota) has a very similar approach as Wisconsin, and the Hawkeyes were completely dominated by the Gophers. Minnesota wracked up 291 rush yards and 51 points in the 37-point blowout over Iowa. The Hawks will have their hands full, but with a win over Wisconsin, Iowa still has a shot at the B1G Championship game. Wisconsin has won and covered two straight over the Hawkeyes. Last year the Badgers went into Iowa City as a 9-point favorite and won 28-9. Iowa really struggled against Wisconsin’s hybrid defense while the Badgers offense churned out 218 rush yards. The Badgers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Iowa is just 2-5 ATS in its last 7 home games but 5-2 ATS in the last 7 conference games. Wisconsin has covered four straight conference games.

THE REST

Nebraska (-11) vs. Minnesota – 12:00 PM EST

Nebraska jumped out to a 17-3 lead over Wisconsin thanks to two Badger fumbles that gave the Huskers a short field to work with. It all went downhill after that as Wisconsin scored the games next 56 points. Nebraska was punch-less on offense, gaining just 180 total yards and achieving just 11 first downs. QB Armstrong was terrible, completing just 6-of-18 passes for 62 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT while the rushing attack notched just 118 yards on 2.6 YPC. Granted they were playing against the top defense in the nation statistically, but to be completely hapless was without a doubt concerning for Bo Pelini’s crew. Defensively it was ugly. The Huskers couldn’t stop Badgers RB Gordon, who set a new FBS-record with 408 rush yards on just 25 carries. It was an uninspiring performance in an important game for Nebraska’s chances, but the Huskers can’t take time to sulk as they now have an important home date with Minnesota this Saturday.

Minnesota put up a solid fight at home in the cold and snow against Ohio State last week, but ultimately came up short in the seven-point defeat. David Cobb rushed for 145 yards and three touchdowns and he’s likely salivating at the thought of facing this Nebraska run-defense that was absolutely torched last week. They’ll have to get better play from the QB position as Leidner was overmatched against OSU’s defense as he completed just 7-of-19 for 85 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT. Defensively they allowed OSU QB J.T. Barrett to have a huge day (389 total yards, 4 total TD), but he’s on another level compared to what they’ll see in Nebraska’s Tommy Armstrong this Saturday. If Minnesota’s 55th ranked rush-defense can slow Nebraska RB Abdullah – who is slowed by an injured knee – like the Badgers did last weekend, the Gophers will have a solid chance to win this conference roadie and stay in contention for a B1G West title. Minnesota is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 conference games and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against a team with a winning record. Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games following a loss. Nebraska has won two of three meetings since becoming a member of the B1G, but Minnesota won last year’s meeting, 34-23, as a 10.5-point underdog. Minnesota, led by RB Cobb, rushed for 271 yards on 5.0 YPC in that win.

Ohio State (-34.5) vs. Indiana – 12:00 PM EST

Ohio State has just two more home games to take care of before its assumed berth in the B1G Championship game. It would be shocking to see the Buckeyes fall at home to either the Hooisers this weekend or Michigan next weekend. OSU had a little trouble at Minnesota last weekend in a relatively flat performance for the Buckeyes. Granted they were off of a huge road win over Michigan State and traveling for the second consecutive week, so it wasn’t a huge surprise to see the Gophers stick around. The 31-24 win wasn’t enough to impress the Playoff committee as OSU is still on the outside looking in at the top four teams, so OSU needs to continue to dominate if it wants to ascend into the CFB Playoff field. Freshman QB Barrett continues to grow and appears to be getting better and better by the week. He tossed for 200 yards and 3 TD and added 189 rush yards and 1 TD against Minnesota last week and now has an astonishing 38 total TD on the season. Barrett will get a shot to add to his gaudy stats against this Indiana defense that ranks 104th against the pass and 81st against the rush.

The Hoosiers have now dropped five straight games and are officially not bowl eligible after last week’s loss to Rutgers. Nothing has gone right for the Hoosiers since QB Sudfeld went down with an injury. In a little over four games since Sudfeld’s injury, Indiana QB’s have combined to complete 41-of-97 passes (42%) for 313 yards with 1 TD and 5 INT. They won’t find many passing lanes yet again this week against an OSU pass-defense that allows just 189.4 pass YPG with 11 pass TD allowed and 16 INT. The one constant for Indiana this season has been the rushing of RB Coleman. Coleman rushed for a career-best 307 yards in the defeat to Rutgers last week and averages 167.8 rush YPG with 12 rush TD on the season. Look for Indiana to try to implement as much rushing into their gameplan against this OSU rush-defense that surrendered 218 rush yards on 5.0 YPC against the Gophers last week. If Coleman can churn out the yards this Saturday, Indiana will be able to control the game clock and potentially cover the 30+ point spread. Ohio State has won 69 out of 86 meetings with Indiana, including 10 straight by an average of 24.4 PPG. Indiana has covered three straight in the series, including last year as a 33.5-point underdog. The Hoosiers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

Michigan State (-22) vs. Rutgers – 12:00 PM EST

It was a bit of an early hangover for the Spartans against Maryland last week after their home loss to Ohio State the week prior. Sparty settled for three early field goals against Maryland and led just 16-7 at halftime before waking up in the 3rd quarter. RB Langford led the way with 138 yards and 2 scores in a game where QB Cook wasn’t sharp (14-of-31 passing). Defensively the Spartans dominated. They held the Terps to just 6 rush yards on 17 carries, forced four turnovers, and limited Maryland to just 2-of-14 on 3rd down. Winning the East is a near impossibility at this point, but the Spartans can finish strong with wins over Rutgers and Penn State to close the season. Rutgers ended its three-game losing streak and became bowl-eligible in the process with a win over Indiana last week. It didn’t come easy as Indiana held a 16-10 lead in the 3rd quarter before Rutgers scored 35 of the final 42 points down the stretch to earn the 45-23 win. The Scarlet Knights were outgained, had fewer first downs, and allowed 307 rush yards to IU’s Tevin Coleman; but were able to take advantage of three Indiana turnovers, mitigating the impact of the Hoosiers high-yardage total. Rutgers QB Nova had a much-needed good performance (16-of-27 with 2 TD and 0 INT) after a horrendous showing against Wisconsin in the prior game. Nova and this Rutgers offense will get another tough test against this MSU defense that ranks 9th in yards per game allowed and 8th in rushing yards per game allowed. These two haven’t met since 2004 and this will be their first meeting as B1G foes. Rutgers is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games and 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year. Michigan State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 home games and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 conference games.

Michigan (-5) vs. Maryland – 3:30 PM EST

The Wolverines had a week off to prepare after notching their first two-game winning streak in more than a year. A visit from Maryland this week represents a solid opportunity for Michigan to become bowl-eligible before traveling to Columbus for their final game of the season. It wasn’t pretty the last time Michigan saw the field, but it was a win nonetheless. The Wolverines notched just 256 total yards, 13 first downs, and 10 points in their 10-9 win over Northwestern. QB Gardner was ineffective as he completed just 11-of-24 passes while tossing two more interceptions – giving him 13 on the season. The defense held late and stopped Northwestern’s two-point attempt to win the game. Overall Michigan held Northwestern to just 264 total yards, including -9 rush yards on 35 attempts. Michigan’s 8th ranked defense will present a huge challenge against this Maryland offense that has grown stagnant over the past three games. This Terps offense that averaged 402.3 total YPG and 35.1 PPG through their first seven games has averaged just 207 total YPG and 14 PPG. QB Brown has completed just 46.3% of his passes with 4 TD and 3 INT over that span and the rushing offense has been non-existent. Last week against Michigan State the Terps totaled six yards on 17 carries. Granted all of this offensive ineptitude has come against three of the top defenses in the B1G (Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan State), but it doesn’t bode well for the Terps that they play another top defensive unit again this Saturday. Maryland is already bowl-eligible, but can move into the postseason with a bit of momentum if it can notch a win at the Big House this Saturday and finish with a win at home over Maryland next week. These two haven’t met since 1990 and this will be the first meeting as B1G East division foes. The Terps are just 1-8 ATS following a bye week but are 5-0 ATS following a SU loss. Michigan is just 0-4 ATS following a SU win and just 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Penn State (-6.5) @ Illinois – 12:00 PM EST

It has been a while since the words “Penn State” and “bowl-eligible” have been said in the same sentence – at least with a positive connotation – but that’s exactly what the Nittany Lions are after last week’s 30-13 victory over Temple. Penn State finally got a positive impact from its rushing attack against the Owls, rushing for 254 yards on 47 carries – just the 2nd time PSU has rushed for more than 162 yards in a game this season. The Nittany Lions should be able to churn out a few more yards this Saturday against an Illinois run-defense that ranks 124th nationally (allowing 266.9 rush YPG). A bigger concern for the Nittany Lions is the consistently poor performances they’re getting from QB Hackenberg. Hackenberg has just 3 TD compared to 10 INT over the past eight games and he has had three straight games where he finished with less than 47 percent completions. He still is just a sophomore and is working behind a truly terrible offensive line, but it’s a very disconcerting development for the former B1G freshman of the year. For Illinois, a bowl game is still in reach if the Illini can win the final two games of the season. The excitement over QB Wes Lunt’s return from injury was short-lived as he tossed for just 102 yards on 14-of-25 passing against Iowa last week. Illinois couldn’t run the ball either, tallying just 88 rush yards on 25 carries. Defensively the showing was even worse as the Illini allowed nearly 600 yards of total offense and 26 first downs. Penn State has won eight of the past 10, but few of them have been easy. Illinois covered seven of the 10 meetings, including three of the last four. Last year Penn State escaped in overtime, 24-17, in a very evenly matched contest. The road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings while the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four.

Northwestern (-1.5) @ Purdue – 12:00 PM EST

The Wildcats pulled off one of the most improbable outcomes of the season in the B1G with their 43-40 win at Notre Dame last week. Not only was it surprising, but it was also a hugely entertaining game that featured six lead changes and saw Northwestern come back from 11-down in the final five minutes to tie the game and send it to overtime. It ended a four-game losing skid and kept them alive for a bowl bid. Northwestern notched 547 total yards and 28 first downs and got solid performances from QB Siemian (284 pass yards) and RB Jackson (149 rush yards). The Wildcats can’t afford to sleep on a pesky Boilermakers squad this weekend. It was a good time for Purdue’s bye week as the Boilers have dropped four straight games, the last two coming in blowout fashion to Nebraska and Wisconsin. While it’s evident that the Boilers have made a ton of progress in year two under Darrell Hazell, it isn’t translating in the standings. Purdue was briefly able to make it a competitive game with Wisconsin, but in the end it was their fourth consecutive loss and second in a row by 17 points or more. Other than a 79-yard TD pass in the 3rd quarter against Wisconsin, Purdue really struggled to move the ball against the B1G’s best defense. Take away that 79-yarder, and Purdue managed just 151 total yards. They rushed 26 times for 26 yards and QB Appleby was largely ineffective (17-of-37 passing). Defensively they had no success slowing down the Badgers’ vaunted rushing attack (who has?) as Wisconsin rumbled for 264 rush yards on 42 carries (6.3 YPC). The Boilers will try to play spoiler as a win over the Wildcats would prevent them from going to a bowl game. This series has been almost exactly even as Purdue has won six of the last 10 outright and each has covered five of the last 10 games. Purdue won the last meeting in 2010. The Boilers have dropped two out of the last three home games with Northwestern, the last of which coming in 2009. Northwestern is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 games following a win but just 4-10 ATS in the last 14 conference games. Purdue is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's SEC Showdowns
By Brian Edwards

**Ole Miss at Arkansas**

-- As of late Thursday, most books had Ole Miss (8-2 straight up, 6-3-1 against the spread) listed as a 3.5-point favorite for Saturday's showdown in Fayetteville. The total was 45.5 points. The Razorbacks were +155 on the money line (risk $100 to win $155).

-- I've been saying all year that Arkansas (5-5 SU, 8-2 ATS) is going to clip at least one SEC West powerhouse. One down, two to go. The Razorbacks broke out the cream cheese and handed LSU a bagel Saturday night in Fayetteville. It brought a 17-game losing streak against SEC foes to an end. At long last, Hog Fans can put the Bobby Petrino Disaster behind them and look forward to a bright future under Bret Beliema.

-- Arkansas won a 17-0 decision over LSU as a one-point home favorite. The defense completely stymied LSU's offense, holding it to 123 yards of total offense. The Tigers could muster just 35 rushing yards on 32 attempts. Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins both rushed for one TD apiece for the Hogs.

-- Arkansas has covered the spread at an 8-1 clip in its last nine games. The Razorbacks have been dynamite at home this year, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS.

-- Ole Miss has had two weeks to prep for Hogs. After dropping a 35-31 heartbreaker to Auburn three weeks ago, the Rebels stroked Presbyterian 48-0 but came up just shy of covering the 50.5-point spread. Bo Wallace threw a pair of TD passes and ran for another score. Jordan Wilkins ran for 171 yards and one TD on 10 carries, while Mark Dodson rushed for 128 yards and two TDs on just three totes.

-- For the season, Wallace has a 22/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and four rushing TDs. He must play out the rest of the season without his favorite target in sophomore WR Laquon Treadwell.

-- Arkansas QB Brandon Allen has vastly improved this season after struggling with a shoulder injury for much of the 2013 campaign. Allen has a 15/5 TD-INT ratio and a pair of rushing scores.

-- Williams has rushed for a team-high 932 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Collins has run for 886 yards and 11 TDs, averaging 5.9 YPC.

-- As a road favorite during Hugh Freeze's tenure, the Rebels own a 3-3 spread record. Arkansas is 2-3 ATS as a home 'dog on Bielema's watch.

-- Ole Miss has won back-to-back games over Arkansas, but the Razorbacks took the money in last year's 34-24 loss in Oxford as 17-point underdogs. The Rebels won 30-27 as 6.5-point 'dogs in their last trip to Fayetteville.

-- The 'over' is 6-4 overall for Arkansas, 4-2 in its home games. The Hogs have seen their games average a combined score of 56.2 points per game.

-- The 'under' is 7-2 overall for Ole Miss, 3-0 in its road games. The Rebels have seen their games average a combined score of 45.3 PPG.

-- The 'under' is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these SEC West rivals.

-- CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Vanderbilt at Mississippi State**

-- As of Thursday, most betting shops had Mississippi State (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) installed as a 30.5-point favorite with a total of 53 for 'over/under' wagers. 5Dimes has the Commodores available on the money line for a monster 45/1 payout (risk $100 to win $4,500).

-- Dan Mullen's team went down for the first time last week in Tuscaloosa, dropping a 25-20 decision at Alabama. However, Mississippi State covered the number in backdoor fashion thanks to Dak Prescott's four-yard TD pass to Jameon Lewis on fourth down with 15 seconds remaining. The scoring strike allowed the Bulldogs to take the cash as 10-point underdogs.

-- Despite throwing a pair of TD passes and accounting for 290 passing yards and 82 rushing yards, Prescott had his worst game of the season. He was intercepted three times, including a terrible pick deep in the red zone in the third quarter to end an outstanding drive. Prescott has been intercepted eight times in the last four SEC games. The performance at 'Bama all but ended Prescott's realistic hopes of winning the Heisman Trophy, although he's still a strong candidate to be invited to New York City.

-- Josh Robinson rushed for only 37 yards on 12 carries against the Crimson Tide. It was his second-lowest output this year. Nevertheless, Robinson surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for the season. He now has 1,021 rushing yards, 11 TDs and a 6.5 YPC average.

-- For the season, Prescott has a 20/10 TD-INT ratio and 11 rushing scores.

-- As a home favorite during Mullen's tenure, MSU has compiled a 15-10 spread record.

-- This is a classic sandwich spot for the Bulldogs, who are coming off a huge game and have the biggest Egg Bowl showdown in decades on deck next week.

-- Vanderbilt (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS) was on a 5-1 ATS run until its last outing when Florida came into Nashville and captured a 34-10 win as a 14-point road 'chalk.' Johnny McCrary threw a TD pass to give the Commodores an early 7-0 advantage, but he was intercepted twice later in the game. He finished with 160 passing yards.

-- McCrary, a redshirt freshman, will make his fourth career start in Starkville. He has completed 53.5 percent of his throws for 806 yards with a 9/6 TD-INT ratio.

-- Vandy redshirt freshman RB Ralph Webb has run for a team-high 838 yards and three TDs. He's averaging 4.5 YPC. Webb is the man for the present and the future for Derek Mason, who dismissed junior RB Jerron Seymour from the program on Thursday. Seymour had 14 rushing TDs in 2003, but he was only given 25 carries this year. Mason also booted junior RB Brian Kimbrow earlier this season.

-- Vandy has thrived as a road underdog for a solid decade, including this season. The Commodores are 3-0 ATS as road 'dogs this year. Going back to 2004, they own a 30-13-1 spread record in 44 games as road puppies.

-- Since 1989, these SEC rivals have met only seven times. Mississippi State is 6-1 both SU and ATS in those seven encounters. The last meeting was in 2009 when MSU collected a 15-3 win as an 8.5-point road underdog.

-- Totals have been a wash both overall (5-5) and at home (3-3) for Mississippi State

-- Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for Vandy, too. It has seen the 'under' go 2-1 in its three road assignments.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Vandy hasn't beaten a top-10 foe since besting sixth-ranked South Carolina on Oct. 20 of 2007.

-- Vandy has played an FBS-high 31 freshmen this year.

-- Just when Butch Jones seemed to be getting it going with back-to-back wins at South Carolina and vs. Kentucky, Tennessee got bad news earlier this week. Senior linebacker A.J. Johnson and sophomore CB Michael Williams have been suspended indefinitely from all team-related activities pending the result of a police investigation. Johnson and Williams are facing sexual-assault allegations stemming from an incident in Knoxville early Sunday morning. Also, DB Brian Randolph is suspended for the first half of Saturday's home game vs. Missouri. Johnson leads the SEC in tackles with 101, while Williams has started five games and made 23 tackles. Randolph has 76 tackles, one forced fumble and one interception. As of Thursday, most books had the Volunteers favored by 3.5 points.

-- After winning a 34-27 decision at Texas A&M as a 3.5-point underdog, Missouri has taken the cash in eight consecutive road assignments. Going back to 2007, the Tigers are on a 25-9 ATS run in their last 34 road games.

-- Florida is 7-14 ATS as a home favorite during Will Muschamp's tenure. As of late Thursday afternoon, a line had not yet been released for the Gators' home finale Saturday vs. Eastern Kentucky. A number should be out late Thursday or early Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

San Jose State's defense a boon for overs
Justin Hartling

After starting trending towards the under, San Jose State's defense has fallen apart causing the team to become a hot over play. In the past five games, the Spartans are 4-1 over/under with their defense allowing an average of 30 points per game.

San Jose State travels to Utah State with a total currently set at 46.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Aztecs still top under team, despite first over
Justin Hartling

In their last matchup against Boise State, San Diego State managed to tally their first over of the season. The Aztecs now have a 1-9 over/under mark on the season, which is the top under record in the nation.

SDSU has averaged 24.1 points per game this season, while their defense has been stellar holding teams to a mere 22 ppg. Despite games involving the Aztecs averaging just 46.1 points, the average total for their games have been nearly 55.

The current total for San Diego State hosting Air Force is 50.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UTEP cashing out against the spread this season
Justin Hartling

Through the NCAAF season, there have been few teams better at covering the spread than UTEP. The Miners are a stellar 8-2 against the spread, including a perfect 5-0 in their last five contests.

In the eight games the Miners have covered, they have covered by an average of 15 points per game. UTEP is also a perfect 4-0 ATS when they have been favorites this season.

UTEP is currently +7.5 against Rice Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football Trends

College Football Betting Trends - Fri, Nov. 21

Utep at Rice, 8:00 ET
Utep: 2-10 ATS in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56
Rice: 22-6 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Air Force at San Diego State, 9:30 ET
Air Force: 0-8 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
San Diego St: 6-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points

San Jose State at Utah State, 9:30 ET
San Jose St: 50-31 UNDER as an underdog
Utah St: 15-6 ATS against conference opponents

Kent State at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Kent St: 10-2 ATS in road games against conference opponents
Buffalo: 3-12 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game