At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey
In addition to handicapping some of the big stakes at Delta Downs on Saturday including the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3), we have a couple of competitive stakes on tap at Aqueduct.
The fourth race is the $100,000 Notebook for state bred juveniles that drew a field of eight that will go six furlongs on the main track.
The Todd Pletcher trained Sudden Surprise is the 8-5 morning line favorite. The colt won his first three starts including a pair of state bred stakes, and had to settle for fourth last out in the state bred Sleepy Hollow going a mile. The cut back to six panels should suit him.
His main foe appears to be Spooked Out, who was a good looking maiden winner in his second career start, taking the field gate to wire and winning by 9 ½ lengths. This guy will also be saddled by Pletcher.
Dr. Shane (5-1) is coming off a victory in the New York Breeders’ Futurity at Finger Lakes at six furlongs, pulling off the upset at 14-1. He was second behind Love That Jazz two back in the Aspirant and three back ran third behind Sudden Surprise in the Funny Cide.
It is to the turf for the feature, the $100,000 Artie Schiller drawing a field of 10 along with an also-eligible.
Reload is the 5-2 morning line favorite for the Shug McGaughey barn. The six-year-old beat $80,000 optional claimers in his last start on turf at Belmont Park on Oct. 10. He has won four of his six starts on turf.
Lubash (3-1) figures to take plenty of betting action. The eight-year-old is a 15-time winner on turf in his career including a pair over the Big A lawn.
He seems to be getting better with age, winning four of six this year after landing in the exacta in all seven of his starts last year. He was a game winner of the state bred Mohawk in his last start.
I will have selections for the race along with the Delta Jackpot in tomorrow’s column.
Here is today’s opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#6 Smile Big 5-2
#3 Alto Belle 7-5
#1 Five On a Dime 4-1
#7 Verve's Tale 5-1
Analysis: Smile Big caught a muddy track last out, dueling for the early lead and getting nailed inside the final furlong and having to settle for third, beaten a half-length. She was down along the 2-3 path on a day most of the winners were traveling toward the outer paths. The Brown barn has been very live at the meeting, winning with nine of 29 starters. She is a $105,000 daughter of Big Drama and the first foal to race out of a Concerto mare.
Alto Belle is back on dirt after weakening to finish sixth last out on turf. She caught mud in her debut where she was beaten just a neck in a four-horse field. She looks like the one to bet but is going to be a light price.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 3,6 / 1,3,6,7
TRI: 3,6 / 1,3,6,7 / 1,3,4,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 Alw $67,000N1X (3:20 ET)
#3 Tapitry 8-5
#5 Ansible 10-1
#6 Just Got Out 3-1
#7 Wraith 10-1
Analysis: Tapitry was the beaten chalk last out where the filly tracked the early pace while saving ground and could not go with the top pair inside the final furlong, coming up a half-length short. She now goes on dirt for the first time in her career here for the Shug barn that is 21% winners moving runners from turf to dirt. The $240,000 purchase is bred to like dirt, by Tapit out of a Tale of the Cat mare.
Ansible is also going on dirt for the first time in her career. Last out she checked in second at Suffolk over good ground against Alw-1 optional claimers. The third place finisher Red Letter exited that race to beat Alw-1 optional claimers on Oct. 31 at Suffolk. Two back our second choice ran a good second at Monmouth Park in her first go against winners, running into repeat winner Quiet Kitten, who beat starter allowance foes in his next start and then ran second in a stake. The Clement trainee has worked well on dirt.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 3,5,6,7
TRI: 3,5 / 3,5,6,7 / 1,3,5,6,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R2: #2 Pin and Win 8-1
R3: #6 De Marquee 12-1
R6: #4 Liberal Spin 8-1
R7: #5 Ansible 10-1
R7: #7 Wraith 10-1
R8: #8 Bombaguia 12-1
R8: #5 Dream Man 20-1
R9: #6 Luna de Loco 10-1
R9: #11 Cave Johnson 8-1
Good luck today!
