Andre Gomes | NBA Sides Fri, 11/13/09 - 7:35 PM •~
dime bet 706 NYK -1.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 705 GSW
Analysis:
This is a game between two poor teams – they are in my opinion two of the five worst teams in the league, but regarding this opinion the Warriors can still be worse than the Knicks due to their unbelieva~ble bad team chemistry and environment involving the team.
If you remember I took the Over with the Knicks in their last game saying that the rookie Toney Douglas would spark the team and make them more competitive and assertive in the offensive end. Well, Douglas didn’t disappoint me because he was a starter and in 35:44 minutes of action, he scored 23 points by shooting 10-19 from the field. The Knicks couldn’t remain competitive in the second half against the Hawks, but facing the Hawks is not the same thing, as facing the Warriors. I also said that PG Chris Duhon is struggling right now and once again he showed that he is in a poor form by going scoreless – 0-6 FG in 25minutes. Mike D’Antoni has already said that Duhon will be the starter tonight, but luckily for the Knicks, Nate Robinson is probable for this contest and although I’m not a particular fan of him, he will surely be more efficient than Duhon and the Knicks will have more options in the backcourt.
Speaking of the Warriors is speaking of a total disastrous team. Stephen Jackson declared in the off season that he wants to be traded and his commitment to the team is non existent. In the Warriors' last game against the Pacers, Jackson was benched by Don Nelson during the game and he played only 18 minutes. A Yahoo Sports story says that two Golden State players told them on Monday that the team’s play – and overall morale – won’t truly improve until Jackson is gone. To make things even worse, yesterday Warriors coach Don Nelson and Monta Ellis had a public spat after the practice, an episode that acts as a microcosm of the dysfunctional team. Already, Randolph is questioning his playing time and Ellis and rookie Stephen Curry are struggling to find much cohesion, so we are talking about a team who is in total collapse.
The Knicks usually struggle against physical and powerful frontcourts due to their size, but tonight this won't surely happen. Warriors' big men Andris Biedrins and Ronny Turiaf are out and the Warriors have only Mikkie Moore and Anthony Randolph for the frontcourt and these players aren’t exactly two dominating players – far from that! The Knicks may be a poor team, but they still try to compete unlike the Warriors, the problem is being to finish off the games against more talented teams. This is not the case of tonight’s game and while facing a poor team who is struggling in every possible department, I see some value on the Knicks to bounce back and snap their 5-game losing streak. Take the Knicks tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 New York Knicks (-1)
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Andre Gomes | NBA Total Fri, 11/13/09 - 8:05 PM •~
dime bet 707 POR / 708 NOH Under 190.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: All the Hornets/Blazers games are almost destined to be low scoring affairs because of the pace that both teams play on the court. These two teams play in a slow pace using half court sets for their defense and offense and it will be needed an extraordinary efficient night from the offenses to reach such a high line of 190 points.
For example, last season these two teams faced each other four different times and in the most prolific night for the Hornets in this matchup, they shot 51.3 % from the field, 8-17 3pts and scored…only 92 points! On the other side, the Blazers shot in one game 53.6% from the field, but scored “only” 101 points. With these numbers in any other game the teams would reach the 110 points, but not in this matchup.
The Hornets fired now former he~ad coach Byron Scott after their disastrous night in Phoenix, in which they allowed the Suns to score 124 points including a whopping 75 points mark at the halftime. It was their worst defensive performance of the season (and there are many in just 9 games) and with a new head coach, I expect them to be more aggressive tonight. This is just a mental question when a new head coach is inserted and I’m playing with this fact for tonight’s contest.
Meanwhile, the Blazers are peaking right now by winning their last 4 games, however I expect them to have a common competitive letdown tonight, as in their last 3 games they faced three awful teams: Minnesota twice and Memphis. They easily won these three games and so they aren’t involved in a competitive game in about a week and this isn't usually good for any team. A common factor for them lately is their defensive consistency. They are in a streak of 6 consecutive games without allowing their opponents to reach the century mark in points and their average is a remarkable 84.66 points per game allowed, so I expect them to keep doing their good job on the defensive end tonight.
I tracked all four games between these two teams last season and by expecting a similar pace tonight my fair line for this contest is 182/184 points and that’s why I’m taking the Under in this game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 190 @ 1.91 on Bookmaker
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Andre Gomes | NBA Total Fri, 11/13/09 - 7:05 PM •~
dime bet 701 UTA / 702 PHI Under 197.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
For this game we have two teams who aren’t playing particularly well as of late and the matchup between these two teams favors a low scoring game.
The Sixers are with a 4-4 record right now, but they are far from being a consistent team. In fact, if we look to their wins, we saw that they defeated Milwaukee in the Bucks' first game of the season, they beat the Knicks and the Nets twice, so they are yet to have a convincing big win. Part of such struggles are related to their offense. Despite adding Jason Kapono to the roster in the off season, the Sixers are still an awful team in the perimeter, as they are connecting just 29.92 % behind the arc – good for the 6th worst mark in the league. The bread and the butter of this team is in the paint, but unfortunately for them, Elton Brand is in miserable form right now. In 8 games, he is averaging just 9.5 points per game, while shooting a poor mark for a PF of 41.2% from the field. Also Thaddeus Young is not having a good season so far by shooting just 42.3 % FG and the Sixers have some players in subpar form and when they face a team who can close the rim, they simply can’t score. That’s why they scored only 74 points against the Celtics, 81 against the Pistons and even in their last game, they scored only 82 points against the Nets.
Meanwhile, the Jazz are coming for this game in a bad mood. They were spanked in Boston last Wednesday and their defense once again hobbled by allowing the Celtics to shot 53.2% from the field and allowed 30 assists – however note that we simply can’t compare the Sixers offense to the Celtics offense. The Jazz have a terrible perimeter defense and luckily for them I've already said that the 76ers are a bad perimeter offensive team. However the same thing can be said about the Jazz, as they are connecting only 30.85% from the 3pts line and like the Sixers, they need to score inside the post to be competitive, so we will have two similar teams facing each other and scoring will be hard for both tea~ms. For the Jazz, Deron Williams is out for this contest and Utah will be playing without their best perimeter player who is averaging 9.9 assists per game, so I don’t expect them to have a good ball movement by them tonight.
With both teams struggling on the offensive side, I expect this game to be a ugly contest with a lot of turnovers and blocks because we are dealing with two one-dimensional offensive teams. My fair line for this game is 192 points and I see enough edge on the Under to pull the trigger in this game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 197
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Andre Gomes | NBA Sides Fri, 11/13/09 - 8:05 PM •~
dime bet 712 BOS -9.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 711 ATL
Analysis: In my opinion this game will set the difference between the men and the boys: the Celtics and the Hawks. I've already said that the Celtics are the best NBA team early on the season and when they are in a favorable spot, they look invincible not only by winning their games, but by literally spanking their opponents.
The Celtics had a busy and tough start of the season by playing 8 games in just 12 days and they looked somehow tired in the final stretch of games. Not coincidently, they ended 0-3 ATS in those games and finally they had the chance to rest 3 days before facing the Jazz at home. The score of that game says it all, as the Celtics blown out the Jazz by 105-86. They shot 53.2 % from the field and had 7 players with double digits points – that's what we can call a complete team. We are talking about the best defense of the league and at the same time the 5th most efficient offense in the league, so the Celtics have the full package to perform a blowout game tonight.
For tonight’s contest, they had one day off to rest and as they are playing again at home, this is a perfect spot for them. Plus due to the first round series against the Hawks two seasons ago, the Celtics will be highly motivated tonight, as this is supposed to be a “rivalry” and the Celtics loves to make statement games.
Meanwhile, the Hawks are 6-2 in the season and hold a terrific 7-1 ATS record. Despite this good record, I’m still not convinced by them, as they failed to be competitive in tough spots. I’m not judging their games against inferior teams, as they did their job in winning, although they needed to perform late rallies in some games. Now taking a brief lo~ok in their games against top teams, what can we see? They lost by 110-118 in LA against the Lakers and even though they lost by just 8 points, I remember that the score after three quarters was 98-76 to LA and only a 34-20 fourth quarter run hid such bad performance. Then, they defeated the Blazers on the road in a impressive win, however the Blazers were in bad spot of playing 5 games in 8 days and with Greg Oden in foul trouble (5 personal fouls in just 15 minutes), the Hawks outrebounded the Blazers by 46-36. Finally they spanked the Nuggets at home by 125-100, but I remember that the Nuggets were playing back to back games in the middle of a road trip and without the services of Kenyon Martin. With a thin frontcourt, the Nuggets didn’t have a chance to compete. This won’t surely happen tonight with the Celtics, as they have a dominant frontcourt with Garnett, Perkins and Wallace.
While the Celtics already showing that they can beat a top team in any circumstance by defeating the Cavaliers, Hornets or Utah, this is the first real test for the Hawks in a tough spot for them and I don’t think that they can go toe for toe with the Celtics. I expect Boston to be dominant tonight and win this game by double digits points. Take Boston in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 Boston Celtics (-9)
