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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Friday

121 WYOMING at 122 UTAH STATE 10:15 PM

Take: UTAH STATE -27

I’m mostly an underdog player in college football and when I play chalk, it’s generally in more competitively priced games. But here we have a situation that would seem to indicate a slaughter is about to take place, and I’ll therefore be spotting the monster points tonight.

First up, a look at Wyoming, or at least what’s left of the Cowboys. This team is really beat up. The starting QB is apparently out tonight, the #2 is definitely out, and that means a first start for redshirt freshman Nick Smith. His main experience thus far was a disastrous outing against Eastern Michigan, which might be the worst defensive team in the country. Smith also got a little mop up duty last week at Boise State and engineered a scoring drive, but that was in garbage time and doesn’t mean much.

Wyoming will also be without its top wide receiver, they have suffered from injuries on defense all season, and they’re even having to go to a brand new punt returner tonight. This is a bad team to begin with and it’s hard to see how things are going to get better for them tonight. Let’s just say the Cowboys are in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Utah State got embarrassed last week at San Diego State. That was the coach’s description and it’s sure accurate. The Aggies flattened out badly off the blowout win against Boise State and they were absolutely dominated in every aspect by the Aztecs. Utah State could not stop the run at all and they also had trouble with turnovers throughout the disaster. I was on San Diego State, and enjoyed every minute, but while watching the Aggies get shredded, was already considering playing them on the rebound here.

I would guess the game plan for Wyoming will be Brian Hill left, Brian Hill right, Brian Hill up the gut and that’s pretty much it. If the very green Smith is called upon to try and run the show, I’ll be surprised if the Utah State defense doesn’t get a score in this game.

The Aggies could be without nose guard David Moala tonight, but they’re a pretty healthy entry right now. QB Kent Myers is off his worst game since taking over the signal calling duties and I’d expect a much better showing tonight.

Even the scheduling favors the Aggies, as they are back home with a full week of prep after the Friday loss in San Diego. The Cowboys were on the road last Saturday night at Boise and now have the shorter prep time for another difficult trip.

Utah State really didn’t lose much other than pride last week. They still control their own destiny in the Mountain Division and if they win out, they’ll probably get the rematch they want against San Diego State. But that loss last week, and the fashion in which it occurred, sure ought to have them eager for some atonement tonight, even against a team they know they ought to handle with ease.

Laying nearly four touchdowns is a lot to swallow, but it’s really hard for me to make a case for Wyoming being in this game at all, and I can see this one getting completely out of hand. I’m therefore giving away all those points and I’m backing Utah State.
 
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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Friday, Oct. 30, 2015 7:35 PM

(709) CHICAGO BULLS VS (710) DETROIT PISTONS

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Friday, October 30, 2015 is a total in the NBA as the Chicago Bulls head to the Detroit to play the Pistons. Chicago still plays tough defense even for their new head coach. Chicago is 6-0 under the total after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The under is also 18-7 when the Bulls face the NBA Central. Detroit has an excellent coach in Stan Van Gundy who know how to teach and demand defense, off a pair of wins as a dog each time playing great rebounding and defense. This is a high total for two solid defensive teams. Play Chicago/Detroit under the total.
 
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Freddy Wills

USC vs California

2* Bonus Play California +6

I have done extremely well on complimentary plays in the PAC 12. Last week we gave you USC and I look to come back and fade the Trojans after they beat a top 5 team at home. Major hang over spot for USC, and the oddsmakers have been so wrong about this team all year. I mentioned in this week's college football betting podcast (search college football betting in itunes), how whacky this PAC 12 conference has been from a betting perspective.

Week 1 – Not hard to screw up the lines this early in the season, but we had Stanford as a 10 point favorite lose on the road against Northwestern. Not many would predict that today.

Week 3- We had USC as a -9.5 favorite at home against Stanford, and USC goes down 41-31 in what was a pretty shocking loss at the time.

Week 4 – There were two games where the line was really off and we had some surprising results. UCLA covered the spread as a 1 point favorite at Arizona by 25 points, and USC who lost huge the week before (20 points of margin ATS), beat Arizona State and covered the spread by 22 points of margin. Oregon was a 10 point favorite against Utah and lost 62-20, an incredible 52 point margin of victory ATS.

Week 5 – Of course that set things up for Arizona State the next week with an inflated line as they were 12.5 point under dogs at UCLA, but get the road victory by 15 points, and 27.5 margin ATS.

Week 6 – The win for USC at Arizona State looks a little better now, and their loss against Stanford not as bad. They are 17 point home favorites against Washington, and lose outright, an incredible 22 point margin of victory ATS for Washington.

Week 7 – Stanford a 6.5 point favorite against UCLA, and both predicted to face off in the PAC 12 Championship which may still happen here. UCLA loses by 21 and I don’t think it was even that close. This set things up well for week 8 for UCLA.

California is coming off 2 tough tough road games against Utah, and then at UCLA and now they are back at home. They have a couple of extra days of preparation for this game which I really like, and they play an in state rival. USC, I don't think they will be completely concentrated on this game after defeating a top 5 team, and in doing so they didn't look that great. I felt like we were a bit lucky last week with USC as they forced Utah's QB Travis Wilson into 4 interceptions which was definitely not typical of this year's Utah team. Call has been turning the ball over a lot lately, but I think they are able to bounce back behind the support of their home crowd.
 

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Friend of mine just sent me John Piesens Keenland pick for today 10/30:
Heard this guy wins alot --we will see.............

Race 1: #7 CANDIP

Race 2: #7 CHANTELINE

Race 3: #7 ALLIED AIR RAID *BEST BET *

Race 4: #3 FUNDEMENTAL

Race 5: #2 DEPARTING

Race 6: #7 RAYS THE BAR (i've also seen multiple other people pick this one !!) hum....

Race 7: #3 LIAMS MAP

Race 8: #2 THRILLED

Race 9: #1 IM A CHATTERBOX

Race 10: #4 NECK N NECK
 

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