Friday 10/2/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Athletics (66-93) at Mariners (75-84)

Game: 1
Venue: Safeco Field
Date: October 02, 2015 10:10 PM EDT

In what have been dismal ends to rough seasons for the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics, some relief will come for one of them in the final series.

The Mariners try to snap out of their funk by continuing their 2015 dominance over the A's at Safeco Field on Friday night.

Seattle (75-84) has lost seven of eight but is 12-4 against last-place Oakland (66-93), including wins in five of six at Safeco. Another victory would give the Mariners more against the A's than any other team while upping Oakland's highest loss total against an opponent.

Felix Hernandez is 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA against the A's this year, but Oakland catches a break as Mariners manager Lloyd McClendon announced Wednesday the ace would not pitch in the final series - ending his bid for seven straight seasons with 200 strikeouts and 200 innings.

"I was holding out some hope that we would get back in this thing but I'm just not going to stress him anymore this year," McClendon told MLB's official website. "The future of this organization is much bigger than one or two games."

Hisashi Iwakuma suffered Seattle's lone loss to Oakland at home, but earlier this month helped the Mariners to their second five-game winning streak against the A's this season. The right-hander will try to extend that to six, which would be the Mariners' longest in the series since 2009.

Iwakuma (9-5, 3.67 ERA) finished off a sweep in Oakland on Sept. 6 by holding the A's to one run in 6 1-3 innings of a 3-2 victory. Two weeks earlier, though, he was rocked by Oakland for seven runs in 4 2-3 innings of an 11-5 loss.

Billy Butler homered off Iwakuma in the second matchup while Danny Valencia hit a two-run shot off him in the earlier game, capping a seven-run fifth inning that flipped Iwakuma's 5-0 lead into a 7-5 deficit.

Josh Reddick is 6 for 18 with a triple against Iwakuma in his career. Butler is 4 for 13 with five strikeouts, Eric Sogard 5 for 17 with two doubles and Coco Crisp 4 for 19 with a double and two home runs in the matchup.

Iwakuma went 3-2 with a 2.18 ERA in five September starts, striking out 29 and walking three. He gets his final chance to hit double-digit wins for the third straight season.

Oakland has lost nine of 11 and has the highest ERA in baseball since Sept. 19 at 7.58. The starters have posted an 8.08 ERA in that span, a number Aaron Brooks will look to lower in his ninth start.

Brooks (2-4, 7.26), though, has a 10.00 ERA in his last six outings, including a six-run, 2 1-3-inning effort in an 11-8 loss to Seattle on Sept. 4. The right-hander is 1-2 with an 8.27 ERA in four road starts this year.

He'll try to shut down a Mariners team that ranks near the bottom of the major leagues with 3.9 runs per game at home. Seattle, however, has scored 5.7 there against the A's.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rockies (66-93) at Giants (83-76)

Game: 1
Venue: AT&T Park
Date: October 02, 2015 10:15 PM EDT

AT&T Park has been baseball's least homer-friendly stadium this year, though that hasn't mattered much to Nolan Arenado.

It will serve as the final stage for Arenado and teammate Carlos Gonzalez's pursuit of the NL home run title as the Colorado Rockies close their season with a three-game series against the San Francisco Giants beginning Friday night.

Arenado's 41 home runs tie him with Washington's Bryce Harper for the league lead, while Gonzalez has a career-high 40. They're both vying for the franchise's first home run title since Dante Bichette, Andres Galarraga and Larry Walker three-peated for the Rockies from 1995-97.

"I don't plan on sitting either one of them, really," manager Walt Weiss told MLB's official website earlier this week. "They're both chasing some things. They're having unbelievable seasons. That competition is good for both of them."

Gonzalez has homered three times in his last five games, but despite Weiss' words, rested for Thursday's 8-6 loss at Arizona.

Arenado has hit nine home runs this year against San Francisco, the most by one player against a single opponent in a season since Evan Longoria hit nine against the New York Yankees in 2013. The last player to hit 10 homers against a single opponent in a season was David Ortiz against Tampa Bay in 2005.

While the 102 home runs at AT&T Park are the fewest this year, Arenado has gone deep five times there - trailing only the Giants' Brandon Crawford, Matt Duffy and Buster Posey.

Gonzalez has been no slouch in the season series either with four homers in 15 meetings, though he's homerless in his last eight games in the Bay.

The Rockies (66-93) are one win away from their second consecutive season series victory against San Francisco, hitting .302 while averaging 5.5 runs in holding a 9-7 advantage.

Both Arenado and Gonzalez have homered against San Francisco starter Chris Heston (12-10, 3.62 ERA), who has given up six home runs over 23 2-3 innings while going 1-3 with a 5.70 ERA in four meetings with Colorado this year.

The right-hander hasn't given up a homer in three straight starts, however, and Sunday's 5-4 victory at Oakland snapped his nine-start winless stretch. He'll be looking to complete at least six innings for just the second time in 11 starts after doing so in 13 of his first 20 outings this year.

The Giants (83-76) managed a four-game split against the Los Angeles Dodgers despite hitting .183 for the series with 10 runs.

If Arenado and Gonzalez could dig in against their own Friday starter Kyle Kendrick (6-13, 6.54), they'd have good odds of adding to their home run totals. Kendrick's 33 homers allowed are tied with San Diego's James Shields for the most in the majors. He will finish with the highest ERA of his career, and his last two starts have been exemplary of his struggles in his first year with Colorado. The right-hander served up five homers in yielding 12 runs over nine innings against San Diego and the Dodgers.

Kendrick is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in two meetings with San Francisco this year, and Posey is 8 for 15 lifetime against him.

DJ LeMahieu is batting .412 in the season series and is 6 for 12 off Heston in 2015.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

National League

Marlins @ Phillies
Nicolino is 1-2, 6.26 in his last four starts (over 3-1).

Harang is 1-0, 3.50 in his last three starts (over 6-0 last six).

Marlins lost seven of last ten games with Philly; four of last five series games stayed under total. Miami lost last three games, scoring seven runs (over 4-2 last six games). Phillies won four in row, scoring 26 runs (under 5-3 last eight)

Reds @ Pirates
Sampson is 0-4, 8.38 in his last five starts (over 6-1 last seven).

Liriano is 3-0, 2.74 in his last four starts (over 7-2-1 last ten).

Reds lost their last 12 games, scoring 11 runs in last six (over 7-2 in last nine); they've lost three of last four games with Pirates (over 6-3-1 last ten). Pirates lost three of last four games (under 5-2 last seven).

Nationals @ Mets
Gonzalez is 1-1, 3.68 in his last four starts (over 8-2 last ten).

Syndergaard is 1-1, 3.95 in his last four starts (over 7-2 last nine).

Washington lost seven of last ten games (under 5-1 last six); they lost six in a row to the Mets (over 4-0 last four). Mets lost last three games, scoring eight runs (over 7-2 last nine)- they're tied with Dodgers for home field in series that starts next week.

Cardinals @ Braves
Garcia is 2-0, 2.53 in his last three starts (over 4-0 last four on road).

Teheran is 1-1, 1.91 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1).

Cardinals won five of last seven games with Atlanta (under 4-1 last five); St Louis won seven of last ten games (over 5-2-1 last eight). Braves lost four of their last six games (under 3-0 last three).

Cubs @ Brewers
Arrieta is 9-0, 1.39 in his last ten starts (under 6-0 last six).

Pena is 1-0, 3.60 in his four MLB starts (under 2-1-1).

Brewers are 6-2 in last eight games (under 5-2-2 last nine); they lost nine of last ten games with Chicago (under 6-3). Cubs won last five games (under is 7-2 in their last nine). .

Padres @ Dodgers
Kelly allowed six runs in five IP (78 PT) in his first start since 2012.

Wood is 1-3, 7.59 in his last four starts (over 3-1 last four).

Dodgers won four of last five games with San Diego (under 4-2 last six); LA lost nine of last thirteen games overall (under 3-1 last four). San Diego lost three of last four games (under 4-0-1 last five)

Rockies @ Giants
Kendrick is 0-1, 12.00 in his last two starts (over 3-1 last four).

Heston is 1-3, 5.08 in his last six starts (under 5-3 last eight).

Rockies lost four of last six games with San Francisco; (over 6-2 in last eight); Colorado lost seven of its last ten games. Giants won four of last six games; three of their last four stayed under.


American League

Bronx @ Orioles
Severino is 2-0, 1.53 in his last three starts (under 5-2-1 last eight).

Chen is 2-1, 2.29 in his last three starts (over 4-2 last six).

Orioles lost five of last seven games with Bronx (under 5-2); Baltimore lost five of last seven games overall (over 3-0 last three). Bronx clinched playoff spot last night; they lost three of last four games (under 7-2 last nine).

Red Sox @ Indians
Owens is 2-1, 1.93 in his last four starts (under 3-1 last four).

Tomlin is 6-1, 3.06 in his last eight starts (over 6-1 last seven).

Boston won six of last seven games; eight of their last ten stayed under total; BoSox are 4-3 in last seven games with Cleveland (over 3-0 last three). Indians lost four of last five games (under 6-4 last ten).

Blue Jays @ Rays
Buehrle is 0-0, 4.76 in his last three starts (over 6-3-1 last ten).

Ramirez is 1-1, 1.66 in his last three starts (under 3-0).

Toronto won six of last seven games with Tampa Bay (under 4-2-1); Blue Jays won six of last eight games (over 3-0 last three). Rays won six of last nine (under 5-2-2).

Royals @ Twins
Young is 2-1, 3.57 in his last four starts (under 5-1-2 last eight).

Santana is 5-0, 1.47 in his last six starts (under 4-1 last five).

Royals are 6-4 in last ten games with Minnesota (under 5-0-2 last seven); they lost four of last seven games overall (under 4-2-1). Twins won five of their last six games (under 4-2); they're only game behind Houston for last Wild Card spot.

Angels @ Rangers
Weaver is 0-2, 5.28 in his last three starts (under 4-1 last five).

Perez is 1-3, 5.14 in his last five starts (under 6-2 last eight).

Angels won six of last ten games with Texas (under 4-0 last four); Halos won seven of their last nine games (over 4-3-1 last eight). Texas won seven of its last ten games (over 8-3-1 last twelve).

Tigers @ White Sox
Simon is 0-2, 8.76 in his last two starts (over 4-2-1 last seven).

Sale is 0-4, 7.13 in his last four starts (under 3-1).

White Sox lost six of last nine games with Detroit (under 3-1 last four); they've lost seven of last nine games overall (under 7-3 last ten). Tigers lost four of their last five games (under 6-4 last ten).

A's @ Mariners
Brooks is 1-3, 9.31 in his last four starts (over 5-2 last seven).

Iwakuma is 4-2, 2.33 in his last six starts (under 4-1 last five).

Oakland lost its last five games with Seattle (over 5-1 last six); A's lost eight of last 10 games overall (over 8-0-1 last nine). Mariners lost seven of last eight games (over 6-4 in last ten games).


Interleague

Astros @ Diamondbacks
Keuchel is 2-0, 1.23 in his last two starts (over 5-2 last seven).

de la Rosa is 2-0, 2.38 in his last two starts (over 3-1 last four).

Houston has one-game lead in Wild Card race; they won four of last five games with Arizona (over 3-1 last four). D'backs won five of last six games (under 4-1 last five). Astros won four of last five games (over 4-2-1 last seven).


Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Mia-Phil-- Nicolino 5-6; Harang 11-17
Cin-Pitt-- Sampson 3-7 (0-5 last 5); Liriano 19-11 (15-1 last 16)
Wsh-NY-- Gonzalez 15-15 (2-6 last 8); Syndergaard 13-10
StL-Atl-- Garcia 13-6 (10-1 last 11); Teheran 18-14
Chi-Mil-- Arrieta 24-8 (12-0 last 12); Pena 2-2
SD-LA-- Kelly 0-1; Wood 12-20/4-7
Col-SF-- Kendrick 9-17; Heston 16-14

NY-Balt-- Severino 6-4; Chen 18-12
Bos-Clev-- Owens 4-5; Tomlin 6-2
Tor-TB-- Buehrle 17-13; Ramirez 15-11 (1-5 last 6)
LA-Tex-- Weaver 11-14; Perez 7-6
KC-Min-- Young 11-6; Santana 9-7 (6-1 last 7)
Det-Chi-- Simon 16-14; Sale 15-15 (0-6 last 6)
A's-Sea-- Brooks 3-5; Iwakuma 11-8

Hst-Az-- Keuchel 22-10; de la Rosa 18-13


Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Mia-Phil-- Nicolino 1-11; Harang 10-28
Cin-Pitt-- Sampson 6-10; Liriano 7-31
Wsh-NY-- Gonzalez 2-30; Syndergaard 8-23
StL-Atl-- Garcia 4-19; Teheran 11-32
Chi-Mil-- Arrieta 4-32; Pena 0-4
SD-LA-- Kelly 1-1; Wood 10-32
Col-SF-- Kendrick 14-26; Heston 6-30

NY-Balt-- Severino 3-10; Chen 8-30
Bos-Clev-- Owens 3-9; Tomlin 2-8
Tor-TB-- Buehrle 15-30; Ramirez 7-26
LA-Tex-- Weaver 7-25; Perez 2-13
KC-Min-- Young 1-17; Santana 2-16
Det-Chi-- Simon 7-30; Sale 9-30
A's-Sea-- Brooks 3-8; Iwakuma 4-19

Hst-Az-- Keuchel 6-32; de la Rosa 9-31

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Friday October 2, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

I'd say that new MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has done a nice job so far in place of Bud Selig, who really hadn't done anything of substance in years. Selig coasted his way to retirement. But some disappointing news from Manfred on Wednesday in that he said he was against adding the designated hitter to the National League. That's ridiculous. If the leagues were still separate, then fine. But there's at least one interleague series every day of the week now (barring off days, obviously). NL teams aren't built to add the DH -- they generally keep speedy, on-base guys on the bench, no sluggers like a David Ortiz. Plus, from a betting perspective, obviously the totals are different in NL games (other than in Colorado) because pitchers are an automatic out for the most part. Would you rather see Clayton Kershaw or Ortiz hit? The DH needs to be added. I still think it will be by 2020.


Nationals at Mets (-144, 7)

New York avoided total disaster on Wednesday night as outfielder Yoenis Cespedes left in the third inning against the Phillies after he was hit in the hand by a fastball from Justin De Fratus. Cespedes had to leave the game, but X-rays were negative. He obviously has been the biggest reason why the Mets took off since the trade deadline. Don't expect to see him the rest of the regular season. The Mets go with Noah Syndergaard (9-7, 3.34) here. He was dominant last time out, allowing two runs over 7.2 innings vs. the Reds and striking out 11. He will next start Game 2 or 3 of the NLDS vs. the Dodgers. Syndergaard is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts this year vs. Washington. It's lefty Gio Gonzalez (11-8, 3.93) for the Nats. He is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA in two starts this year against New York. Curtis Granderson can't hit him, going 4-for-30 with 10 strikeouts.

Key trends: The Nats are 2-7 in Gonzalez's past nine starts. They are 2-5 in his past seven on the road vs. teams with a winning record. The Mets are 7-1 in Syndergaard's past eight at home. The "over/under" is 9-2 in Gonzalez's past 11. The over is 8-1 in Syndergaard's past nine.

Early lean: Nationals and over.


Cardinals at Braves (+129, 7)

St. Louis clinched the NL Central after winning the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader against the Pirates. They also clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs in the National League and will face either the Pirates or Cubs in the NLDS. I'm not touching the Cardinals now the rest of the weekend. They will be resting guys. St. Louis does start the guy who has been its best pitcher for several weeks in lefty Jaime Garcia (10-5, 2.36). I'd imagine he starts Game 2 of the NLDS after Michael Wacha goes in the opener. The Cardinals are 10-1 in Garcia's last 11 starts, during which he has a 2.63 ERA. He hasn't faced Atlanta this season. Atlanta's Julio Teheran (10-8, 4.16) was disappointing much of this season but seemed to find himself in September with a 1.91 ERA in five starts (although just 1-1 because Braves can't score). He hasn't faced St. Louis this year.

Key trends: The Cards are 6-1 in Garcia's past seven vs. teams with a losing record. The Braves are 5-1 in Teheran's past six at home. The over is 4-0 in Garcia's past four on the road. The under is 4-1 in Teheran's past five at home vs. teams with a winning record.

Early lean: Certainly under and Braves.


Angels at Rangers (-125, 9.5)

This will have live betting at sportsbooks as it's televised by ESPN. Texas could clinch the AL West in this game if it didn't on Thursday. It's Jered Weaver (7-12, 4.76) for the Halos. He had to leave his last start vs. Seattle after five innings with shoulder tightness. I'm sure if this were June or something he wouldn't be starting here. Weaver has faced Texas once this year, allowing one run over six innings. Mike Napoli is a career .344 hitter off him with three homers in 32 at-bats. Mitch Moreland is 11-for-34 with two homers. Texas lefty Martin Perez (3-6, 4.77) took the loss last time out despite not allowing an earned run in six innings at Houston. His lone start vs. the Angels this year was Sept. 4 in Anaheim and he allowed three runs over six innings. Mike Trout is 3-for-9 off him. Albert Pujols is 0-for-2.

Key trends: The Angels are 1-7 in Weaver's past eight on the road. The Rangers are 4-0 in Perez's past four at home. The under is 4-1 in Weaver's past five vs. Texas.

Early lean: Angels -- even more so if Rangers clinch on Thursday.


Cubs at Brewers (+193, 7.5)

Chicago has nothing to play for, either, so normally I wouldn't touch the Cubs here. But it's Jake Arrieta on the mound as he makes one final push to beat out the Dodgers' Zack Greinke for the National League Cy Young. Arrieta (21-6, 1.82) is having one of the best second halves of the season in major-league history. At the All-Star break, Arrieta had a 2.66 ERA. Now as you see it's 1.82. He is 11-1 with a 0.80 ERA since the break. That's absurd. He will start Wednesday's wild-card game at Pittsburgh, so he might be lifted a bit early here. Arrieta is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in three starts vs. Milwaukee this year. The Brewers go with rookie Ariel Pena (2-0, 3.91). This is only his fifth big-league start and he hasn't faced the Cubs.

Key trends: The Cubs are 6-0 in Arrieta's past six vs. teams with a losing record. The Brewers are 1-4 in their past five series openers. The under is 6-1-1 in Arrieta's past eight vs. Milwaukee.

Early lean: Cubs and under.


Astros at Diamondbacks (TBA)

Of the three wild-card contenders, the Astros have the easiest opponent this weekend in Arizona as the Angels have the Rangers and the Twins face the Royals. Houston lefty Dallas Keuchel (19-8, 2.47) makes his final push for the AL Cy Young -- it will be either him or the Jays' David Price. Keuchel is trying to become the eighth pitcher in club history to win 20 games in a season. He is only 4-8 with a 3.82 ERA in 14 road starts this year. Arizona goes with Rubby De La Rosa (14-8, 4.56), who has been a solid offseason trade acquisition. He faced Houston on July 31 in Texas and allowed four runs over six innings. Carlos Gomez is 2-for-8 with a homer off him. Chris Carter is 2-for-2 with a dinger. No DH in this one for the Astros.

Key trends: The Astros are 1-5 in Keuchel's past six road starts vs. teams with a losing record. Arizona is 6-0 in De La Rosa's past six on Friday. The over is 5-2 in Keuchel's past seven. The over is 7-3-1 in De La Rosa's past 11.

Early lean: Astros.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's six-pack

-- Ravens 23, Steelers 20 OT-- Pitt is on its third kicker of year already; am guessing next week it'll be #4- they also fell short on two 4th down plays in OT.

-- Cincinnati 34, Miami 23-- Bearcats had harder time with Miami of Ohio.

-- Andrew Luck has a bum shoulder, may not play against the Jaguars Sunday.

-- Texas Rangers are in the playoffs; they're 41-20 in their last 61 games.

-- Michigan-Maryland was moved up to noon Saturday because of the bad weather hitting the Atlantic coast this weekend.

-- Get well soon Steve Kerr; Warriors coach is on leave of absence after he had an operation on his back. Luke Walton is the interim coach.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Friday

NATIONALS (Gonzalez) @ METS (Syndergaard) 7:10 PM

Take: METS -130

The sad saga of the 2015 Washington Nationals is about to reach its conclusion. There’s little need to dwell any more on the failures of this favorite, as that has all been covered. But there’s at least one more chance to bet against this turmoil laden franchise, and I would think tonight qualifies on that count.

Gio Gonzalez is capable of being very good at times for the Nats. Perhaps he’ll have one of those games tonight. But even if that’s the case, there’s no guarantee it will be enough to catapult Washington to a win over the Mets.

The Nationals are not hitting a lick and it seems pretty clear they just want this whole thing to end. The Nats haven’t been any good on the road all season and their away issues continued in a series loss to the lowly Braves over the last few nights. Washington did manage to salvage the set’s finale last night as red hot Stephen Strasburg threw another gem.

Gonzalez will likely have be just as dominant tonight for the Nats to have a decent chance at winning. With the offense already in hibernation for the winter, Noah Syndergaard appears to have an excellent chance to rack up another stellar showing at home. Also, the Mets have a good chance to nail down home field advantage for the upcoming playoff series against the Dodgers. Should the two teams finish with identical records following Game #162, the Mets own the tie-breaker.

Incentive is with the Mets, the starting pitcher advantage is with the Mets and even if the Mets are mildly cruising till the actual playoffs start they’re still owners of a commanding mental edge over the screwed up Nationals. I’ve got no problem spotting the price tonight with the Mets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Friday, Oct. 2 10:10 PM EST

(961) SAN DIEGO PADRES VS (962) LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Take: Over the total

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Friday, October 2nd, 2015 is in the MLB contest between the Padres and the Dodgers in Los Angeles. San Diego is on a 39-16-3 run over the total, as well as 18-6-2 over when the Padres face a team with a winning record. Starter Casey Kelly is young and has been hit, with a 9.00 ERA. The Over is 21-5-1 in the Padres last 27 road games. Los Angeles is 5th in baseball in on base percentage and the Over is 5-2 in the Dodgers last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. Starter Alex Wood (11-12) has allowed more hits than innings pitched and has allowed 18 runs his last 21 innings! Wood struggled Sunday, giving up eight runs on 11 hits and two walks through 5.1 innings in a 12-5 loss to the Rockies. The Over is 45-21-4 in Dodgers last 70 during game 1 of a series. Play the Padres/Dodgers over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play FRI Over 7 ChiSox/Tigers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Memphis vs South Florida

Bonus Play South Florida

I'm recommending a play on the underdog South Florida Bulls on Friday. We have a hyped road favorite, taking on an undervalued home team with a decent defense and a running game to control the tempo. USF heads into this one off a bye week and with the nation's 30th ranked ground game..."just what the doctor ordered" to keep the Memphis attack on the sideline. Memphis can score points with the best of them, but offers little resistance on the defensive side of the ball. The Tigers have allowed 87 points and more than 1,300 hundred yards in their last two games, both ending in hard fought single digit wins. The defense ranks 124th against the pass and 104th in total yards allowed per game. Once USF gets the ground game going, the occasional play-fake and pass against this particular defense will produce. USF enters on a 7-3 ATS run against teams with a winning record and I believe they'll hang the number in this one. I'm recommending a play on South Florida plus the points on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.