Friday 1/6/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Grizzlies (22-16) at Warriors (31-5)

Date: January 06, 2017 10:30 PM EDT

OAKLAND, Calif. -- The Golden State Warriors will seek to avenge one of their most lopsided losses of the season on Friday night when they close out a five-game homestand against the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Warriors have lost just five times this season, once in resounding fashion, 110-89 on Dec. 10 at Memphis.

The two-time defending Western Conference champions have had a chance to avenge just one other defeat this season, and they did so big-time, blasting the Los Angeles Lakers 149-106.

That came 19 days after the Lakers' 117-97 win over the Warriors.

This time, Golden State has had 27 days to stew over the loss at Memphis.

The last time they lost a regular-season game to the Grizzlies (105-98 on Dec. 16, 2014), the Warriors rebounded with a 23-point thumping in their next meeting.

Golden State hadn't lost to the Grizzlies again until last month's debacle. The Warriors swept last year's season series 4-0.

Speaking of 4-0, that's the record on their current homestand that the Warriors will take into Friday's game. All four wins have come by between eight and 10 points.

Golden State is coming off a tough 125-117 win over Portland in which Stephen Curry erupted for 35 points. It was his highest output since Nov. 7, and required his second-highest number of shots (25).

Curry, who had attempted more than 20 shots in just one of his previous 16 games, insisted afterward nobody had instructed him to shoot more.

"I'm not going to fall into the temptation of abandoning what makes us successful just to say I shot more," he said. "The way (the Trail Blazers) defended, I got a lot of shots out of the pick-and-roll."

The Grizzlies (22-16) have struggled defensively of late. They've lost four of six, allowing 112 or more points in each of the defeats.

On the other hand, they held Oklahoma City to 80 and Sacramento to 98 in their two wins during the mini-slump.

Grizzlies coach David Fizdale noted in the wake of Wednesday's 115-106 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers that he believes his team knows what it'll take to turn things around against the Warriors in the finale of a four-game trip.

"If you can't be up to play Golden State, then you are in the wrong business," the former Warriors assistant said. "I look at every game as an opportunity to turn it around. We obviously aren't defending at the levels we like. We gave up 116 (Tuesday against the Los Angeles Lakers) and 115 (against the Clippers). That's very uncharacteristic of us."

Memphis held Curry to 17 points on 4-of-14 shooting from the field and backcourt sidekick Klay Thompson to eight points also on 4-of-14 shooting in last month's meeting. Golden State shot just 44.2 percent in the game and the league leaders in assists at 31.2 per game were limited to 15.

The Warriors registered 31 assists in Wednesday's win over Portland. They are 24-1 when they've reached 30 this season.

No other team has 30 or more assists in a game more than six times this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Clippers (24-14) at Kings (15-20)

Date: January 06, 2017 10:30 PM EDT

SACRAMENTO, Calif. --- The Los Angeles Clippers and Sacramento Kings hang out on opposite ends of the Western Conference, yet they seem always to have one thing in common that always comes to light when they face each other.

They each struggle to get out of their own way when it comes to being their own worst enemy.

The Clippers may be stabilizing and besides two straight wins into Friday's visit to Sacramento, they are also eying the return of All-Star point guard Chris Paul.

Paul may return from the left hamstring injury that has caused him to miss four straight games and seven of the past eight. Paul, who stands six assists away from moving past Rod Strickland into 10th on the NBA's all-time list, had a strenuous workout before Los Angeles' 115-106 home win over the Memphis Grizzlies, and coach Doc Rivers said Paul is close.

"Chris looked great (Wednesday)," he told the Los Angeles Daily News. "Had a full workout, played up and down. We'll just wait to see how he feels."

The win over the Grizzlies likely lifted Rivers' spirits for reasons other than it came shortly after a six-game losing streak. Los Angeles did not commit a technical foul for the second straight contest, a priority Rivers told reporters he set forth in a "long talk with the team" in which he reviewed all 32 the team has earned this season. The Clippers' total is third in the NBA.

"I told them that doesn't represent us, and I made a pledge to them," Rivers told the Los Angeles Times, pointing the finger at himself and his six technical fouls, second-most among NBA coaches. "I have to be the leader of this team, so my actions have to come first. ... We're reversing this. I'm getting no more, and I'm holding everyone accountable."

Accountability, or the lack of it, continues to be a running theme for the Kings (15-20), and they acknowledged taking a gigantic leap backward by kicking off a season-high seven-game homestand with a 107-102 loss to the undermanned Miami Heat on Wednesday.

Sacramento has lost three of four since a season-best four-game winning streak that began with DeMarcus Cousins scoring 55 points in a 126-121 win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Dec. 20.

Cousins was held to a season-low 13 points and shot 4-of-15 in a game where the Kings trailed by 19 in the third quarter.

"It's part of the maturing of a team, and we have to get better at it," Kings' forward Garrett Temple said. "It's like Darren (Collison) said (Tuesday) after we won in Denver. Yeah, it's a good win, but it means nothing if we lose the next one. Well, we lost the next one. We've got to become more consistent in that regard."

Sacramento's loss was one of its more disheartening in recent memory. The Kings, playing a youthful, rebuilding Heat team reeling from injuries, showed barely a ripple of intensity in allowing 87 points in the first 34 minutes to a team that was averaging 98.2 per game.

"It's not easy to come out whether it be the start of a half or the start of a game with the type of energy level and intensity you need to kick of the proper defensive mindset," Kings forward Arron Afflalo said. "Defensively, we have to be more ready to play and not give teams a quick run, because those things are hard to overcome."

The Clippers, who also have been without All-Star forward Blake Griffin (arthroscopic knee surgery) since Dec. 18, have won eight straight contests in Sacramento.

Los Angeles is 17-3 in the last 20 meetings since acquiring Paul prior to the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Now that football is winding down, it's time to refresh on NBA betting
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Some of you have been betting NBA basketball since the 2016-2017 campaign commenced back in October. Others are just now beginning that annual New Year transition from firing on football to getting down on hoops.

For the latter, you may be interested in a quick refresher course of what’s been taking place around the Association for the last three months. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered.

And for those of you who have been in hibernation, the answer is “No.” The Philadelphia 76ers are not going to win the NBA Championship this season.

*All information current entering Wednesday night’s slate of action.

1. Golden State Warriors (30-5 SU, 15-19-1 ATS): The two-time defending Western Conference champions have now notched 30 or more victories through the first 35 games of the season in each of the last three years. The Warriors lead the NBA in scoring, scoring differential, assists and myriad other statistics en route to the Association’s best overall record. But it’s been quite the opposite story for Golden State bettors this season, as the Dubs have failed to cover the number in nine of their last 13 outings, with the under cashing in 11 of the club’s last 14 matchups.

2. San Antonio Spurs (28-7 SU, 20-14-1 ATS): “The Machine” has covered the number in 10 of its last 12 outings thanks to the NBA’s second-most efficient defense, fifth-most efficient offense and a budding star in Kawhi Leonard, who currently ranks seventh in the Association in Player Efficiency Rating (PER).

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (26-7 SU, 16-15-2 ATS): When LeBron James gets the night off rush to the counter as fast as you can. Entering Wednesday night’s tilt vs. Chicago, the Cavaliers were 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS when “The King” failed to take the court, with the under posting a perfect 3-0 mark in those contests.

4. Houston Rockets (27-9 SU, 24-12 ATS): Say hello to not only one of the league’s most profitable organizations collectively, but MVP-frontrunner James Harden individually. The Rockets rank fourth in pace, third in offensive efficiency and second in assists and are one of just five teams to defeat the Golden State Warriors this season. Take note that the over has cashed in six of the team’s last seven outings. General Manager Daryl Morey and first-year head coach Mike D’Antoni have worked wonders with this roster in just a handful of months.

5. Toronto Raptors (23-11 SU, 21-12-1 ATS): Will play five of their next six games at Air Canada Centre after concluding six-game road trip with a 110-82 defeat in San Antonio on Tuesday night. Keep that nugget in mind as the over is a highly profitable 11-5 in Toronto home contests this season.

6. Los Angeles Clippers (23-14 SU, 17-20 ATS): Blake Griffin underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in mid-December and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks of action as a result. Since that time, Los Angeles has gone 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS. Be advised that the under has cashed in four of the Clippers’ last five outings.

7. Utah Jazz (22-14 SU, 18-17-1 ATS): No team averages fewer possessions per game than the Utah Jazz (93.2), who have posted 11 unders in 19 home games so far this season. And while the under has cashed in 11 of Utah’s last 14 contests overall, it’s worth noting that the team itself has covered the spread in just two of its last eight games.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder (21-14 SU, 18-16-1 ATS): MVP candidate Russell Westbrook has already recorded an insane 16 triple-doubles during the 2016-2017 season, but you have to wonder how much gas the UCLA product will have left in the tank come the final two months of the season thanks to a healthy current average of 34.6 minutes played per game. OKC has covered the number in five of its last seven outings with the under cashing in four straight contests.

9. Boston Celtics (21-14 SU, 19-14-2 ATS): After a moderate commencement to the season, the Celtics started clicking in mid-December and have now ripped off eight victories over the team’s last ten outings, with seven point spread covers in the process. Credit an offense that ranks seventh in efficiency and fourth in turnover ratio.

10. Memphis Grizzlies (22-15 SU, 19-18 ATS): Underrated guard Mike Conley has missed 11 of the team’s last 18 games due to a lower back injury, but that hasn’t stopped first-year head coach David Fizdale from keeping this franchise right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff hunt through the start of the New Year. Bettors should pay attention to the fact that the Grizzlies rank 28th in the NBA in pace, which has significantly contributed to the under hitting in 14 of the team’s 20 home games this season.

11. Charlotte Hornets (19-16 SU, 16-18-1 ATS): No team in the Association averages fewer turnovers per game than the Hornets, who currently rank seventh in the league in defensive efficiency. Sixth-year point guard Kemba Walker is averaging career highs in points and rebounds while playing two fewer minutes per game this season when compared to last season.

12. Atlanta Hawks (18-16 SU, 16-18 ATS): They’ve won three straight, but the big story out of Atlanta at the moment pertains to the team’s leading scorer and three-time All-Star Paul Millsap, who became the subject of trade rumors over the past week. The Hawks own the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference, but are just 2.0 games up ninth-seeded Washington.

13. Milwaukee Bucks (17-16 SU, 16-17 ATS): Two words, nine vowels: Giannis Antetokounmpo, aka “The Greek Freak,” who may be the most intriguing point guard in NBA history. Seriously, check out a Bucks game and keep your eyes on No. 34.

14. Indiana Pacers (18-18 SU, 15-21 ATS): The Pacers have won and covered in three straight and have seen the over cash in seven of the team’s last eight outings. This franchise is exactly what its record says it is, as the Pacers rank outside the top-half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency as well as turnover ratio.

15. Chicago Bulls (17-18 SU, 16-19 ATS): Jimmy Butler is an absolute beast, but 34-year-old Dwayne Wade is hurt (knee swelling) and malcontent Rajon Rondo is once again having issues with his head coach. So is it any wonder why the Bulls have dropped eight of their last 12 games while failing to cover the number in nine of their last 12 contests? Chicago is fading fast.

16. Washington Wizards (16-18 SU, 17-17 ATS): Bet ‘em at home (12-7 ATS), fade ‘em on the road (5-10 ATS) and lean to the over (22-12-2) no matter the venue. That’s pretty much been the story for the Wizards up to this point.

17. New York Knicks (16-18 SU, 20-14 ATS): A respectable season went south beginning on Christmas Day with a 119-114 home loss to the Boston Celtics, which triggered a five-game losing streak. Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose love to play isolation basketball so much that you can’t help but feel bad watching budding young star Kristaps Porzingis as he stands idly by waiting patiently for his touches.

18. Orlando Magic (16-20 SU, 15-20-1 ATS): The over has cashed in four straight games, but take note that the Magic are an abysmal 5-12-1 ATS at Amway Center this season. Orlando ranks an uninspiring 19th in defensive efficiency and 26th in offensive efficiency, but a respectable sixth in turnover ratio.

19. Sacramento Kings (15-19 SU, 18-15-1 ATS): Can the Kings hurry up and trade Boogie Cousins already?

20. Detroit Pistons (16-21 SU, 17-20 ATS): Detroit has dropped eight of its last ten contests and is already one “Players Only Meeting” into the season. The good news? The over has cashed in four straight and five of the team’s last six outings overall.

21. Portland Trail Blazers (15-21 SU, 14-22 ATS): What the hell happened here? After a promising 44-38 campaign last season, the Blazers have played horrendous defense (28th in scoring defense, 29th in defensive efficiency) en route to the ninth seed in the Western Conference. In certainly doesn’t help that scoring machine Damian Lillard has been nursing an ankle injury as of late, but this program has far bigger problems to worry about than injuries at the current moment.

22. Denver Nuggets (14-21 SU, 17-18 ATS): Bet the over when this squad takes the floor at Pepsi Center, which has failed to cash in just four of 17 home dates this season. As for the team itself, Denver has dropped five of its last seven outings while failing to cover the number in six of those matchups.

23. New Orleans Pelicans (14-22 SU, 18-18 ATS): Another year, another New Orleans campaign led by All-World big man Anthony Davis and a rotating cast of hurt and/or ineffective complementary pieces. The upside is that maybe the Pelicans have finally figured something out, as evidenced by the fact that the team has won four of its last five games with four consecutive point spread covers.

24. Los Angeles Lakers (13-25 SU, 17-20-1 ATS): A grand total of 17 wins with Kobe Bryant last season has transitioned into 13 wins through just 38 games without Kobe Bryant this season. Rookie head coach Luke Walton has this youthful roster playing a highly entertaining style of pass-happy basketball that is currently producing an average of 104.5 points per game. Play the over when the Lakers take the floor at Staples Center, which has cashed 13 times in 18 games.

25. Dallas Mavericks (11-24 SU, 17-18 ATS): Newly acquired Harrison Barnes is blossoming nicely now that the five-year veteran finally has a chance to spread his wings (career highs in points, rebounds and steals), but the Mavericks find themselves outgunned at nearly every turn when it comes to the Western Conference. However, Dallas has found a way to cover the number in five of its last seven outings.

26. Minnesota Timberwolves (11-24 SU, 15-20 ATS): Something’s not quite right here. Yes, Minnesota boasts a young roster that is still learning the intricacies of first-year head coach Tom Thibodeau’s system, but just 11 wins through the team’s first 35 games still feels like a serious underachievement. Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns are putting up numbers as expected, but it’s third-year guard Zach LaVine (career highs in points, rebounds, steals and blocks) who is turning heads around the league.

27. Phoenix Suns (11-25 SU, 17-18-1 ATS): The over is 14-6 when the Suns hit the road this season. That’s pretty much the nicest thing we can say as it pertains to this franchise at the moment.

28. Miami Heat (10-26 SU, 17-19 ATS): Hold on. You mean to tell me a franchise that loses LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh finds itself near the bottom of the standings in the Eastern Conference in early January? Color me stunned.

29. Philadelphia 76ers (9-24 SU, 17-16 ATS): Shockingly, this is considered success for the 76ers. Think about it: The team isn’t in last place, Joel Embiid is absolutely killing it (19.2 points in just 25.0 minutes per game) and the team is above .500 in the ATS department! When is the parade down Broad Street?

30. Brooklyn Nets (8-25 SU, 17-14-2 ATS): They’ve lost eight of their last nine. Bring on the ping pong balls!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NBA Picks: Friday, Jan. 6, 2017, Opening Line Report and Handicapping

by Alan Matthews - 1/5/2017

Julius Randle Los Angeles Lakers

The worst game on the schedule in terms of current quality of teams Friday night has to be Heat at Lakers. It feels like forever ago, but it really hasn't been that long since it would have been one of the marquee regular-season games of the year with LeBron James vs. Kobe Bryant. It's still such a shame those two never squared off in the NBA Finals as Kobe's career was trending downward when LeBron's was blowing up. But while both franchises are lottery-bound this season, both are also likely to be major players in free agency this summer. If you ask any NBA player about his two top destinations to play in or visit, it would be Los Angeles and Miami in whatever order (New York third). On top of the great weather, you have terrific party scenes chock full of celebrities. Neither franchise will thus be down very long, although the new CBA helps other teams keep their best players instead of bailing in free agency for L.A. (Shaq) or South Beach (LeBron).

Free $60 in Member NBA Picks No Obligation Click Here

Timberwolves at Wizards (-6, 210)

Minnesota dropped a second straight Tuesday, 93-91 at Philadelphia on a Sixers buzzer-beater. Minnesota had rallied from a 26-point deficit to tie on a Ricky Rubio 3-pointer with 1.6 seconds left. Karl-Anthony Towns had 23 points and 15 rebounds in the loss. Washington lost its second in a row Tuesday, 113-105 in Dallas. John Wall, December's Eastern Conference Player of the Month, led Washington with 27 points and Bradley Beal added 25 for the Wizards, who fell to 1-6 on the second half of back-to-back games. First meeting of the season between Minnesota and Washington. The teams have alternated victories over their last 14 meetings.

Key trends: The Wizards are 8-0 against the spread in their past eight at home. The "over/under" is 13-5 in their past 18 overall. Minnesota is 2-9 ATS in its past 11 in Washington.

Early lean: Wizards and over.

Rockets at Magic (+6, 222)

Houston hosted Oklahoma City on Thursday with Patrick Beverley expected to return from a two-game injury absence. Orlando lost 111-92 at home to Atlanta on Wednesday. Magic coach Frank Vogel decided to move Elfrid Payton back into the starting lineup after coming off the bench for weeks. Payton had 15 points and six assists but was minus-8. Magic leading scorer Evan Fournier returned after missing five games but came off the bench. First meeting between Houston and Orlando. The Rockets have dropped their past two in Florida.

Key trends: The Rockets are 2-11 ATS in the past 13 meetings. The over is 7-3 in the Magic's past 10 at home.

Early lean: Magic and under.

76ers at Celtics (-12.5, 210)

Philadelphia won a second straight Tuesday, 93-91 over Minnesota on Robert Covington's shot off an inbounds play with 0.2 seconds left. The Sixers used Joel Embiid as a decoy and he set the screen to free Covington. Embiid finished with 25 points. Boston won its second in a row Tuesday, 115-104 over Utah. Isaiah Thomas had 29 points and a career-high 15 assists with just one turnover. Avery Bradley was back after missing a game due to illness. Boston has won the past nine meetings vs. Philadelphia. It was 107-106 in Philly on Dec. 3.

Key trends: The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. The over is 4-1 in the past five in Boston.

Early lean: 76ers and under.

Cavaliers at Nets (TBA)

Brooklyn was in Indiana on Thursday. Cleveland's three-game winning streak ended in a 106-94 home loss to Chicago on Wednesday. Kyrie Irving was out again with a hamstring problem that's clearly fairly serious and Kevin Love was out as he's recovering from food poisoning. LeBron James had the flu but played and had 31 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. This one starts a season-high six-game road trip. Cleveland won the first meeting with Brooklyn 119-99 in Ohio. The Cavs were 1-1 at the Nets last year.

Key trends: The Cavs are 1-4-1 ATS in the past six in Brooklyn. The under is 6-0 in the past six meetings.

Early lean: Wait on Irving and Love.

Knicks at Bucks (TBA)

First ESPN game. These teams played in New York on Wednesday and the Knicks lost their sixth in a row, 105-104. If Giannis Antetokounmpo wasn't already a superstar, he had his signature NBA moment by hitting the winning shot at the buzzer, the first of his pro career. The Greek Freak had 27 points and 13 rebounds and set up his winning shot with a steal off Derrick Rose. It was Milwaukee's third win in a row. Carmelo Anthony had 30 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists for the Knicks, who were without Kristaps Porzingis for a third consecutive game (Achilles). Joakim Noah might be in question here after hurting his shoulder late. These teams split last season in Milwaukee. New York has tied or defeated the Bucks in four of the last five season series.

Key trends: The Knicks are 1-4 ATS in the past five in Milwaukee. The over is 5-1 in the past six there.

Early lean: Wait on Porzingis.

Heat at Lakers (TBA)

Los Angeles was in Portland on Thursday night. Miami, which has learned it will be without Justise Winslow the rest of the season due to shoulder surgery, ended a six-game losing streak with a 107-102 victory at Sacramento on Wednesday. Tyler Johnson scored 10 of his 23 points in the fourth. Hassan Whiteside (bruised right eye) was one of four injured players who were back in Miami, which included Winslow. But Dion Waiters played for the first time in a month and had four points in 10 minutes. Whiteside (eye) has a chance to join the team and play in this one. Miami beat the visiting Lakers 115-107 on Dec. 22. The Heat are 8-20 all-time at L.A.

Key trends: The Lakers are 2-5 ATS in their past seven in the second of a back-to-back. The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings.

Early lean: Wait on Whiteside.

Grizzlies at Warriors (-14.5, 214)

Second ESPN game. Memphis lost a second in a row Wednesday, 115-106 at the Clippers. The Grizz led by 12 in the third quarter. Marc Gasol scored 23 points and Mike Conley had 17 points and a season-high 12 assists. Chandler Parsons sat out the second of a back-to-back. Golden State won its fourth straight Wednesday, 125-117 over Portland. Steph Curry had 35 points and Kevin Durant 30. Curry and Durant scored at least 25 points in the same game for the 10th time. Golden State lost at Memphis 110-89 on Dec. 10 but has taken the past four in the series at home.

Key trends: The Grizzlies are 2-6 ATS in the past eight meetings. The under is 9-2 in the past 11.

Early lean: Warriors and under.

Clippers at Kings (TBA)

L.A. won its second straight Wednesday, 115-106 over Memphis despite playing again without Chris Paul (hamstring), although Coach Doc Rivers says there's a good chance Paul could play here. Austin Rivers had a season-high 28 points in leading the rally vs. the Grizzlies. DeAndre Jordan had 18 points and 20 rebounds. Sacramento continues to be maddening, coming off a nice win in Denver on Tuesday and then starting a seven-game homestand Wednesday with a 107-102 loss to a Miami team largely full of reserves due to injury. DeMarcus Cousins basically took the night off with 13 points on 4-for-15 shooting. He should have dominated that game. Los Angeles won the first meeting 121-115 in Sacramento on Nov. 18 and has won eight in a row there.

Key trends: The Clippers are 5-2 ATS in their past seven in Sacramento. The over is 7-1 in the past eight meetings.

Early lean: Kings end home skid in series, Paul or not.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Friday’s games

Akron is 11-3 vs schedule #309; Zips are #149 experience team that is playing pace #302- they are 5-1 vs teams outside top 200, with four wins by 10+ points- they won MAC opener 89-84 over Bowling Green. Zips start two juniors, two seniors. Western Michigan is 4-9 vs schedule #60; they lost MAC opener by 31 at Ohio. Broncos are #304 experience team that has #341 eFG% defense. Akron won its last four games with Western by 20-2-13-9 points; Broncos lost last eight visits to Akron, with six of eight losses by 12+ points.

Monmouth has been disappointing so far, 10-5 vs schedule #138- they’ve lost last three games, last two to St Peter’s/Rider. Hawks are 2-3 vs top 125 teams, with best wins over Memphis/Princeton. Iona won six of last eight games with Monmouth, beating Hawks 79-76 in LY’s MAAC tourney; Hawk scored 92-110 points in their two series wins. Gaels won two of last three visits here. Iona lost three of last four games, losing to Fairfield and two CAA squads; Gaels are trying to blend two transfers into lineup- they’re 2-4 in true road games, winning at FDU/St Peter’s.

Rider beat Monmouth in OT last game after losing previous two games; Broncs are 7-2 vs teams ranked outside top 200, 5-4 in true road games. Rider plays pace #91 but is shooting just 28% on arc (#334). Rider is 15-3 in last 18 games with Marist, winning three of last four visits here (they lost 71-58 in McCann Center LY). Red Foxes snapped 6-game skid in last game with an OT win over Manhattan; Marist is 0-7 vs teams in top 200- they’re starting three sophs and a freshman, have #237 eFG% defense in country, but they are 3-2 at home.

Rhode Island is 10-4, looks like they’ve got a shot at going to NCAAs, but they’re 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with only win by 5 over Cincinnati on a neutral floor. Rams are 1-3 in true road games, with only win at Saint Louis; only one of their four losses was by more than five points. Dayton won its last four games with Rhode Island, winning last two by total of six points. URI lost its last five visits here, by 9-1-5-7-16 points. Dayton won its last four games, last three by 36-11-16 points; they’re 11-3 vs schedule #75, with their three losses by a total of nine points.

Ill-Chicago is 7-7 this year after being 21-74 the previous three years; Flames start three frosh and two juniors- they’re on way up but it is a slow trip. UIC are 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 300, winning by 8-16-10 points. Detroit won eight of last nine games with UIC, sweeping Flames LY by 18-11 points. Titans won last four visits here, by 12-6-11-11 points. Detroit 12 of last 13 games, with win over Western Kentucky; they lost first two Horizon games by 13-11 points. Titans have #343 eFG% defense- teams shoot 58% inside arc against them.

Green Bay is 8-6 vs schedule #130; three of their last four D-I wins came in OT. Phoenix is #22 experience team that is playing pace #15, but they’re shooting only 30.1% on arc. Green Bay won four of last five games with Milwaukee, beating Panthers 70-61 in LY’s tourney; Milwaukee lost last two games in this building by 11-2 points. Panthers lost their last six games; they’re 1-7 vs top 200 teams, with only win over #171 Cal-Irvine. Milwaukee has new coach after winning 19+ games five of last seven years; they’re 4-11 this year, losing Horizon games by 1-9 points.

Oakland is 12-3 vs schedule #315; they won last three games, scoring 81 pts/game. Grizzlies start three juniors and a senior; they won first two Horizon games by 19-11 points. Valparaiso won four of last five games with Oakland, winning last three by 6-17-2 points. Grizzlies lost last three visits here, by 3-6-2 points. Crusaders are #38 experience team that is 12-3 vs schedule #140; Valpo is 3-2 vs top 100 teams, with best win over #33 Rhode Island. This is just third true road game for Oakland; they won by 21 at Robert Morris, lost by by 12 at Michigan State.

Ohio is 9-3 vs schedule #338; they’re 1-2 vs top 150 teams, with best win at Georgia Tech. Bobcats have #25 eFG% defense are shooting 40.6% on arc (#9). Kent State won four of last five games with Ohio, but lost 72-61 in Athens LY. Golden Flashes are 4-3 in last seven games here. Favorites covered last four series games. Kent State is 9-5 vs schedule #331; they won last two games over Texas/Ball State, but are 1-2 in true road games, losing at Northeastern, Oregon State, winning at Texas. Kent is #1 team in country on offensive boards (42.9%).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey

The finalists for the Eclipse Awards were announced yesterday and there really is going to be very little drama when the awards are handed out on Jan. 21 at Gulfstream Park.

Arrogate, California Chrome and the filly Songbird are the finalists for Horse of the Year, with California Chrome likely to take down top honors despite getting beaten by Arrogate in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

California Chrome won seven of his eight starts this year earning $8,180,000. He won three Grade/Group 1 races and placed in another.

Arrogate made six starts, winning the Travers (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). Those two victories likely will earn him the Eclipse Award for top three-year-old over Nyquist and Exaggerator.

Songbird won seven of her eight starts, her lone loss coming in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) where she was beaten a nose by Beholder. She is a lock for the Eclipse Award for top three-year-old filly.

Beholder did not make the cut for Horse of the Year but likely wins her fourth Eclipse Award by winning for top older dirt female. She won three of her six starts this year, taking down a pair of Grade 1 races, the Vanity and Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

Stellar Wind is a finalist for older dirt female and did beat Beholder twice, but she came up short in a fourth place finish in the Distaff which likely will cost her the hardware.

The Eclipse Award Finalists

Horse of the Year: Arrogate, California Chrome, Songbird
Two-Year-Old Male: Classic Empire, Not This Time, Practical Joke
Two-Year-Old Filly: Champagne Room, Lady Aurelia, New Money Honey
Three-Year-Old Male: Arrogate, Exaggerator, Nyquist
Three-Year-Old Filly: Cathryn Sophia, Queen's Trust, Songbird
Older Dirt Male: California Chrome, Frosted, Lord Nelson
Older Dirt Female: Beholder, Cavorting, Stellar Wind
Male Sprinter: A.P. Indian, Drefong, Lord Nelson
Female Sprinter: Finest City, Haveyougoneaway, Paulassilverlining
Male Turf Horse: Flintshire (GB), Highland Reel, Tourist
Female Turf Horse: Lady Eli, Miss Temple City, Tepin
Steeplechase Horse: Rawnaq (IRE), Scorpiancer (IRE), Top Striker
Owner: Juddmonte Farms, Ken and Sarah Ramsey, Spendthrift Farm
Breeder: Clearsky Farms, Darley, WinStar Farm
Trainer: Bob Baffert, Chad Brown, Mark Casse
Jockey: Javier Castellano, Jose Ortiz, Mike Smith
Apprentice Jockey: Kevin Gomez, Lane Luzzi, Luis Ocasio


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Md $35,000 (12:35 ET)
#5 Strong Breeze 10-1
#6 Dynamic Dancer 2-1
#7 Noble Dave 6-1
#1 Duel At Dusk 7-2

Analysis: Strong Breeze debuts for the Kenneally barn that is 16% winners with first time starters and has been sending out live runners at this meeting, 7 of 9 landing in the exacta. This colt was purchased for just $12,000 despite being out of a Dayjur mare that has dropped eight winners, six on turf and three stakes winners, top earner Lord Sinclair ($420,961).

Dynamic Dancer cuts back from a mile and drops another notch in class here after setting the early fractions and weakening to finish sixth last out for a $50,000 tag going a mile. He was competitive versus maiden special weight company, landing third in three of his first four trips, all on turf. He fits in this spot dropping in for a $35,000 tag and has shown enough tactical speed to be able to handle the cut back to five furlongs.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 1,5,6,7
TRI: 5,6 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,3,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 9 OClm $75,000N1X (4:32 ET)
#5 Speedmeister 9-5
#7 Beasley 8-1
#9 Union Brass 20-1
#10 Alum 2-1

Analysis: Speedmeister set the early fractions and weakened to finish fifth last out in his second career start going a mile at Churchill Downs in the Street Sense. He ran into a good one in McCracken, who came back to win the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in his next two starts. The third place finisher Guest Suite won next out as well, beating Alw-1 optional claimers by 6 1/4 lengths at Churchill Downs on Nov. 26. Our top pick broke his maiden two back in his debut at seven furlongs and the $650,000 son of Bodemeister is going to be tough in this spot.

Beasley dueled for the early lead and finished gamely to break his maiden by a nose in his debut, sent off at 7-2 in a field of six in the mud at the Big A. The third place finisher Small Bear came back to graduate in his next outing on Dec. 18 at the Big A. He is a half to a couple of good runners in Mr. Palmer ($527,639) and Conspiracy ($322,145).

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 5,7 / 5,7,9,10
TRI: 5,7 / 5,7,9,10 / 5,7,9,10,11

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #5 Strong Breeze 10-1
R2: #6 Hailing 8-1
R3: #3 Enduring Arch 8-1
R3: #4 Knight Errant 10-1
R5: #8 Indominus 10-1
R6: #6 Ithinkits Monday 8-1
R6: #5 Fashion Factor 10-1
R9: #9 Union Brass 20-1
R10: #8 Hy Rapid Lady 10-1
R10: #4 Just Coz 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Friday 1/6 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 70 - 231 / $339.00 (-$123.00)

BEST BETS: 9 - 19 / $26.40 (-$11.60)

Best Bet: KELLI RACHELLE (13th)

Spot Play: CC C HER BIBI (5th)


Race 1

(7) B YOYO finds a field with a fair amount of early zip and he should be able to set up shop behind likely favorite (5) MUSCLE DIAMOND and perhaps get up late. The latter has plenty of talent and won his comeback race after a lengthy absence. I fear he’ll be overbet in this spot. (4) OPULENT YANKEE and (6) CROSBYS CLAM BAKE are both coming off sharp scores and either could step up again.

Race 2

I was keyed up to bet (5) WINDSUN MISSION in her last start before the scratched-sick line. This is another blank field, so I’ll stick with her. (1) MAJESTIC SUNSET was pounded at the windows and responded with a nice effort; clearly capable. (4) BEND IN THE RIVER came back from consecutive breaks with a flat qualifying mile. (8) DONOMONI loomed a serious threat before blowing up last time.

Race 3

(6) HERE COMES SAM changed barns and added hobbles last time in a 12-plus length win. I see no reason why he can’t ride that momentum against this tougher class. (8) BATTLE MAGE seems to be in a race without much early speed and he has that ability in spades. (5) ALEXANDER HANOVER rallied nicely for second last time. (1) SHADY MCCOY seems to be a good fit in this spot, but with only one race since October and none in the last three weeks, I’m inclined to use him only underneath.

Race 4

(4) BUFF will probably be overbet and I’m not sure he is coming off the best winning effort ever, but I just can’t settle on any other horse that looks better. (9) KEYSTONE BLADE gets Andy Miller back in the bike and figures to improve. (2) BANDS ARISTON has plenty of form in his corner if he handles the big track. (8) UNDERCOVER BEAUTY has the ability to leave well and contend, but I’m not sure if her recent poor performances are due to bad posts or lack of form.

Race 5

(4) CC C HER BIBI faces a questionable field with much early speed. If DiBenedetto sends her hard off the gate, there is no reason she can’t pull off an upset. (5) ZUZU rallied nicely for second a week ago. (7) ROBOCALL HANOVER failed on the engine last time but deserves another shot.

Race 6

(1) HYWAY MARCUS was a sharp second behind a better horse last week. If he doesn’t break, which is always possible, he should be able to handle this crew. (2) FOX VALLEY STEFFEN has won two straight and three of four; clearly dangerous. (6) CLASSICAL ANNIE drops down and has speed but I just don’t trust her. (8) LAUDERDALE picks up Callahan and knows how to win here.

Race 7

(5) IDEAL NUGGETS paced the fastest mile of the night in victory back on December 30. Five-year-old has some class and might finally be ready to tap into her early career success. (8) TRUTH AND LIBERTY couldn’t possibly be any sharper and she does have some early speed if needed. (10) ICOMMANDMYSPIRIT took care of business as the favorite when last seen at this level two starts back; post is an issue. (1) CHANGE THE RULZ N raced well here on December 9 against lesser foes.

Race 8

(7) LONG STORY SHORT is a gritty grinding veteran in a field with enough early speed to set up his sustained rally. (6) I’M FABULOUS was racing well before the recent break; can compete here. (5) NEVER EVER CLEVER has missed four weeks of action but clearly fits with this group. (4) THE ONLY ONE has displayed big early speed and could get lucky if others are scared to engage him early.

Race 9

(2) CLEAR VIEW HANOVER is not going to be the only leaver in the race, but I’m hard pressed to find more than one other potential early speed player. So, with a pocket trip at worst in the offing, I’ll roll the dice on her rebounding. (6) INTOVIEW is one of the mares in this race that I can see gunning off the gate and she has won in this class in the past. (5) NOT BEFORE EIGHT finally got aggressive and took care of business. It will be harder for her to do that in this field. (4) BLUSH HANOVER has a chance if they somehow mix it up or she is sitting behind live cover.

Race 10

There are four of five mares in this race that may show early speed. With that in mind, I’ll roll the dice with (2) JOYFUL GAME, who shows a win over the track a few starts back and tends to race from off the pace. (3) GINGER TREE ALEXIS qualified in good order for new trainer Richard Johnson. We’ve seen him do well with these first-time horses. (5) SPORTSMUFFLER is plenty sharp and could leave and sit the pocket once again. (4) BETTER SAID went off as the favorite against better last time and failed; drops again.

Race 11

(2) SWEET JUSTICE has been racing reasonably well of late and picks up Corey Callahan this week. (1) HILL I AM has been doing good work with Lasix added; obvious threat. (6) LAZURUS drops down and deserves some consideration. (9) WHATNBLAZES gets barn and driver changes but may not be fast enough to compete from the outside post.

Race 12

(3) WINEMASTER HANOVER chased a better horse in his recent qualifier. This guy doesn’t jump off the page, but he certainly fits and I’d expect a strong effort with him in for a claiming tag tonight. (6) HALL PASS HELEN is dangerous from off the pace with a smooth trip. (2) FASHION ZOOMALOT and (1) FUSION POWER are both coming off good placings.

Race 13

(3) KELLI RACHELLE made her second start since August and was just even a few weeks back. Ricky Bucci trainee should be ready to roll in this spot. (5) MELANIES SHARKETTE scored at first asking upon entering the Johnson barn and can certainly win again. (4) GO FOR SAND loses Miller to the top pick but picks up a nice replacement in Callahan. (10) ROCKERS ALLEY has plenty of form but a bad post.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spot Plays

For Friday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (6th) You Know I Know, 3-1
(9th) Causeway Cutie, 7-2


Delta Downs (5th) Who Datawaki, 7-2
(6th) Bella Capelli, 3-1


Fair Grounds (3rd) River Walk, 5-1
(4th) Money Flows, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (1st) Rhett’s Image, 5-1
(5th) Faith Pacer, 7-2


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Prince of England, 7-2
(5th) Kiss the Crown, 8-1


Penn National (2nd) This Guns for Hire, 3-1
(5th) Decadent Doll, 7-2


Santa Anita (2nd) Sassy Ashley, 7-2
(8th) Sizzlin Square, 4-1


Sunland Park (6th) R Boys Gone, 6-1
(7th) Spunwithpride, 3-1


Tampa Bay Downs (2nd) Eirigh, 4-1
(6th) Six Point Star, 3-1


Turfway Park (6th) Siegfreedroesch, 5-1
(9th) Tenacious Sally, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday’s 6-pack

If I had it to do it all over again, six colleges I would’ve chosen from to attend

— Cal-Santa Barbara— Every other car there has a surfboard on its roof. The basketball coach back then lived on a freakin’ boat.

— Arizona State— Sparky the Sun Devil and I would’ve been good buddies.

— Cal State Fullerton— Could’ve got me a summer job at Disneyland.

— UNLV— I would’ve flunked out in one semester, but it would’ve been a fun semester.

— St Leo’s College— First thing you see when you pull into this Florida college is a built-in pool; I swear the place is a converted motel.

— San Diego State— Not sure I would’ve studied much during Padre homestands, but I didn’t study very much in college anyway.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: NBA Memphis/Golden St Over 214½ Points

 

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Platinum Plays

Free Pick: NBA Washington Wizards -5 over Minnesota

 

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Roz Wins

Roz's Friday, January 6, 2017, Free Pick

(507) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS VS (508) BOSTON CELTICS. Play Boston.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Friday, January 6, 2017

(513) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS (514) GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS. Play Memphis.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Friday, January 6, 2017

(521) WISC MILWAUKEE VS (522) WISC GREEN BAY.

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.

Reason: Your free pick for Friday, January 6, 2016 comes in college basketball Horizon League action as Wisconsin-Milwaukee heads to Green Bay. Conference play can mean tougher defense, as can rivalry games like this one. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is not a good shooting team, #245 in the nation in shooting, including 65.3% from the free throw line. On the road, the Panthers are averaging 66.2 scoring. The Under is 7-3 in the Panthers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Green Bay Phoenix aren't much better, ranked #231 for offensive field goal percentage shooting 42.3%, plus 67.4% from the free throw line. Green Bay is 6-2 under the total at home. Play the Wis-Milwaukee/Green Bay Under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Golden Dragon Sports

Free Pick

UW Green Bay -9' College BB

 

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Huddle Up Sports

Bonus Play
Golden State -13'

 

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Hawkeye Sports

Friday's Free Pick: Calgary Flames even

 

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Friday: Rider Broncs - 2 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Friday

A miss with Samford as the Thursday Bonus Play in a game where I was simply on the wrong side. Tonight’s Bonus Play will be a rare big chalk piece in the NBA.

513 GRIZZLIES at 514 WARRIORS 10:35 PM

Take: WARRIORS -13.5

Unlike last season when they were basically all out to win every game big, this year it’s a case of picking spots to play the Warriors as heavy chalk.

I think this is one of those spots. Golden State should be up for this game, as they got their teeth kicked in at Memphis last month. Memphis was up 61-38 at halftime and it was a blowout from start to finish. I suspect we get a pretty intense effort from GS tonight as that was a humiliating defeat.

The Warriors had only three in-season revenge games last year and got the job done each time. They’ve had just one spot this year and beat the Lakers by 43. Memphis is a decent enough team, but I believe they’re in trouble tonight. I’m laying the lumber with the Warriors in this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ben Burns

Maple Leafs vs Devils

Bonus Play New Jersey Devils

We're getting the Devils at an underdog price but they could easily be favored. Consider the following. The Leafs are 8-12 on the road. The Devils are 10-6 at home. That includes a 5-4 win in this season's earlier meeting. (The Devils were laying -145 for that one.) Including that result, the Devils are a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they hosted the Leafs, a streak dating back to 2014. (They were laying a minimum of -129 for all five games.) The Devils outscored the Leafs by a combined 19-9 margin in those games.

The Leafs had their winning streak snapped last time out, while the Devils check in off back-to-back wins. They won those games by a combined 6-1 score, too, most recently a 3-1 win at Raleigh on Tuesday. The Devils, 5-2 (+3.4) when playing with two day's rest in between games, are a solid 10-7 (+3.6) against sub-500 teams. Again, when you think about it, they could easily be favored. Take a look at the "home dog" in this one.