College Basketball Betting: TOP-25 from a Vegas Perspective
Scott Spreitzer
MOST OVERRATED RANKED TEAM: #23 INDIANA HOOSIERS
We have picked on other teams that were barely in the top-25 over the last few weeks and it has paid off. Last week, we called Wyoming our most overrated ranked team and cashed 24-hours later when they lost at home to San Diego State. A couple of weeks ago, when TCU was undefeated, we said the Horned Frogs should not be ranked. They proceeded to lose three straight games and have since lost four of five, overall. This week, Indiana gets the dubious honor. I actually have the Hoosiers ranked 35th in my power ratings.
Indiana is 14-4 SU as I write this, with close wins over Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, and Illinois in conference play. Three of those four wins could have gone either way. Then there are the “step-up” games, those against Louisville and Michigan State, both of which ended in losses by at least 20 points. Toss in a SU loss to Eastern Washington and the Hoosiers aren’t a top-25 team in my opinion. Indiana allows over 71 ppg on 43.1% shooting, which ranks 211th in defensive FG percentage allowed. Indiana hosts Maryland next and might catch the Terps at the right time. But after that, the Hoosiers have three road games in their next four outings, including trips to Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin. I’ll be shocked if the Hoosiers get through their next seven games with more than four wins. I’ll certainly be looking to play against them on at least two occasions. Indiana is this week’s most overrated ranked team.
MOST UNDERRATED RANKED TEAM: #17 TEXAS LONGHORNS
Texas rolls into this week as the 17th ranked team in CBB according to the AP. I happen to believe they are ranked 5-6 slots too low. While they suffered odd and somewhat bad losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, their only other two losses came against top-ranked Kentucky and in OT to a 13-4 Stanford team. Texas has plenty of chances to climb a few spots over the next few games. It starts this weekend with a home game against Kansas and I will be looking to back the Longhorns if I get the number I believe the books will post. If Texas beats the Jayhawks, I may very well go against Texas when they travel to Ames, Iowa. But not because I don’t believe this is a strong team, but instead, I’ll be looking to go against them in a tough spot.
Texas plays some of the stingiest basketball on the defensive end. They have held their opponents to 56 ppg on 34% shooting, while holding opponents to 30% from behind the arc. Rick Barnes doesn’t have a superstar scorer, but instead has five players averaging between 9 ppg and 12 ppg. It’s a blue collar team, ranked 3rd in the nation in rebounds per game. This may be the hardest working team in the top-25 and they are this week’s most underrated ranked team.
UNRANKED “SNUBBED” TEAM: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
Ohio State’s losses have all come against teams that have a great shot to be playing in the Big Dance and they’re off a loss to Iowa, so I understand the snub – I just don’t agree with it. They’re ranked 42nd by AP in this week’s rankings, while my ratings have Ohio State ranked as the 24th best team.
The Buckeyes nail 50% of their FGA on the season and have played stellar defense more often than not. While their game didn’t lead to a win over Louisville and North Carolina, I do believe they’re going to be in solid play-on spots shortly. I may pass when they face Northwestern on Thursday, but I expect to be in action when Thad Matta’s troops take the court against Indiana on January 25. Not only are the Buckeyes stingy on defense, but they’re also led in scoring by a true go-to-star in DeAngelo Russell, who’s averaging 18.6 ppg, to go along with 5 rpg and nearly 5 apg. No less than 10 players average in double digits in minutes played and I’m betting they’ll be up to the task at hand against the Hoosiers this weekend. For now, Ohio State is my snubbed team.
Good luck! Scott Spreitzer
Scott Spreitzer
MOST OVERRATED RANKED TEAM: #23 INDIANA HOOSIERS
We have picked on other teams that were barely in the top-25 over the last few weeks and it has paid off. Last week, we called Wyoming our most overrated ranked team and cashed 24-hours later when they lost at home to San Diego State. A couple of weeks ago, when TCU was undefeated, we said the Horned Frogs should not be ranked. They proceeded to lose three straight games and have since lost four of five, overall. This week, Indiana gets the dubious honor. I actually have the Hoosiers ranked 35th in my power ratings.
Indiana is 14-4 SU as I write this, with close wins over Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, and Illinois in conference play. Three of those four wins could have gone either way. Then there are the “step-up” games, those against Louisville and Michigan State, both of which ended in losses by at least 20 points. Toss in a SU loss to Eastern Washington and the Hoosiers aren’t a top-25 team in my opinion. Indiana allows over 71 ppg on 43.1% shooting, which ranks 211th in defensive FG percentage allowed. Indiana hosts Maryland next and might catch the Terps at the right time. But after that, the Hoosiers have three road games in their next four outings, including trips to Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin. I’ll be shocked if the Hoosiers get through their next seven games with more than four wins. I’ll certainly be looking to play against them on at least two occasions. Indiana is this week’s most overrated ranked team.
MOST UNDERRATED RANKED TEAM: #17 TEXAS LONGHORNS
Texas rolls into this week as the 17th ranked team in CBB according to the AP. I happen to believe they are ranked 5-6 slots too low. While they suffered odd and somewhat bad losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, their only other two losses came against top-ranked Kentucky and in OT to a 13-4 Stanford team. Texas has plenty of chances to climb a few spots over the next few games. It starts this weekend with a home game against Kansas and I will be looking to back the Longhorns if I get the number I believe the books will post. If Texas beats the Jayhawks, I may very well go against Texas when they travel to Ames, Iowa. But not because I don’t believe this is a strong team, but instead, I’ll be looking to go against them in a tough spot.
Texas plays some of the stingiest basketball on the defensive end. They have held their opponents to 56 ppg on 34% shooting, while holding opponents to 30% from behind the arc. Rick Barnes doesn’t have a superstar scorer, but instead has five players averaging between 9 ppg and 12 ppg. It’s a blue collar team, ranked 3rd in the nation in rebounds per game. This may be the hardest working team in the top-25 and they are this week’s most underrated ranked team.
UNRANKED “SNUBBED” TEAM: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
Ohio State’s losses have all come against teams that have a great shot to be playing in the Big Dance and they’re off a loss to Iowa, so I understand the snub – I just don’t agree with it. They’re ranked 42nd by AP in this week’s rankings, while my ratings have Ohio State ranked as the 24th best team.
The Buckeyes nail 50% of their FGA on the season and have played stellar defense more often than not. While their game didn’t lead to a win over Louisville and North Carolina, I do believe they’re going to be in solid play-on spots shortly. I may pass when they face Northwestern on Thursday, but I expect to be in action when Thad Matta’s troops take the court against Indiana on January 25. Not only are the Buckeyes stingy on defense, but they’re also led in scoring by a true go-to-star in DeAngelo Russell, who’s averaging 18.6 ppg, to go along with 5 rpg and nearly 5 apg. No less than 10 players average in double digits in minutes played and I’m betting they’ll be up to the task at hand against the Hoosiers this weekend. For now, Ohio State is my snubbed team.
Good luck! Scott Spreitzer
