Cajun-Sports CFB Executive- Friday
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL – SUPERDOME, NEW ORLEANS
JANUARY 2, 2009, 8 PM EST - FOX
3 STAR SELECTION
Utah +9½ over Alabama
For the 2nd year in a row, an undefeated team from outside a BCS conference invades “The Big Easy” as the 7th-ranked Utes challenge the 4th-ranked Crimson Tide on Friday night.
Utah, under the direction of Kyle Whittingham, are just the second team to enter the Bowl season with a perfect record this year, the other being Boise State which lost 17-16 to TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl, but covered the spread.
The Utes kicked off 2008 with a road win against Michigan in Ann Arbor and ran the table from there. There were a couple of close calls along the way, like a 31-28 victory over Oregon State in early October and a 13-10 triumph versus TCU in November, but for the most part Utah handled all of the attention well. In fact the Utes finished very strong with a couple of blowout wins, including pounding ranked BYU, 48-24.
As for the Crimson Tide, led by Nick Saban, they held the top position in the AP poll down the stretch as they put together a perfect record themselves for most of the campaign. There were several tight games for 'Bama along the way as the team won by a combined seven points against Kentucky and Ole Miss in back-to-back outings, and then had to go to overtime before dismissing Saban's former LSU Tigers squad in a 27-21 decision in November. Alabama had one last hurdle to clear in the SEC Championship game, but the Florida Gators came out on top, 31-20, and will play in the BCS National Championship Game.
Last year the Tide took part in the Independence Bowl for the second straight season and defeated Colorado with a 30-24 final, giving the team two bowl wins in the last three opportunities. In the case of the Utes, they have won seven Bowls in a row, stretching back to the 1999 Las Vegas Bowl.
Utah quarterback Brian Johnson was named the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year for 2008, converting better than 68% of his pass attempts for 24 TDs and just nine interceptions. RB Matt Asiata led the team on the ground with 678 yards and 11 touchdowns as the squad came away with 23 scores by way of the running attack in order to keep defenses off balance.
During one stretch this season the Utes limited five straight opponents to 16 points or less, a streak that allowed the program to place 12th nationally in terms of scoring defense overall with just 17 ppg permitted. The run defense stood as a more potent measure for the squad as it limited the opposition to only 1045 ypg, 14th best in the country through 12 games.
Kicker/punter Louie Sakoda is a tremendous special teams player for the Utes, as he became just the second player from any school to be named as a finalist for both the Lou Groza and Ray Guy awards in the same season. A three-time MWC Special Teams Player of the Year, Sakoda does as much for the offense for the Utes as he does for the defense when he pins opponents deep in their own territory.
The biggest news heading into this game for the Crimson Tide is that offensive lineman and Outland Trophy winner Andre Smith was suspended for the contest on Monday. Coach Saban released a statement saying, "Andre Smith has been suspended from participating in the Sugar Bowl due to a violation of team rules and policies. The University of Alabama, the team and the football program are more important than any individual player."
With Smith out of the lineup the job of quarterback John Parker Wilson gets a little more difficult. The signal-caller didn't do all that much in terms of passing the ball this season, converting 58% of his attempts for only nine touchdowns and six interceptions.
Clearly the bread-and-butter for this group is the rushing attack headed by Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram who combined to generate more than 2,000 yards on the ground. Coffee finished 22nd in the nation with an average of 104 ypg this season. Alabama was far from a dominant team on offense this season, ranking just 56th in the country with an average of 367 ypg and 30th with 31 ppg.
On defense, Alabama will try to get pressure into the backfield in order to upset the rhythm of the Utes spread attack. The run defense ranked fourth in the country with just 79 ypg surrendered, while the group was third in the nation overall with a mere 257 ypg allowed total. By limiting seven teams to 10 points or less, it is easy to see how the Crimson Tide ranks sixth nationally with 13 ppg allowed this season.
Utah loves the role of David vs. Goliath and should stay in this game. The war in the trenches between Alabama's offensive line and Utah's defensive line should determine how well the Utes can compete with the Tide. Without Smith, Utah’s athletic defensive should create some havoc off the edge with DEs Paul ****** and Koa Misi.
While the Tide lost perhaps their best player, the Utes should have junior NT Kenape Eliapo at full speed after he missed seven games of the season because of a broken foot. If Utah can hold its own at the line of scrimmage, it has the speed in the secondary to keep Alabama's passing game in check. Then it becomes up to Utah's offense to make enough plays to pull off the upset.
We often look to play ON a non-BCS Conference school Bowl team against a BCS Conference opponent. MAC & WAC teams, and other non-BCS schools, will be highly motivated to prove themselves against BCS foes.
In fact, Utah is 8-0 SU in their last 8 games vs. non-conference opponents with victories over UCLA, Louisville, Navy, Michigan, and Oregon State.
Other numbers tell us that they are 9-1 SU (+9.1 ppg) & 10-0 ATS (+14.2 ppg) as an underdog vs. opponents off a SU loss, and their 7-0 Bowl run since 1999 includes underdog upsets over USC and Georgia Tech.
Big underdogs that bring at least a dozen season wins into a bowl game, have been perfect all-time in not only covering the spread, but winning outright by an average of double digits. This is documented by a Bowl POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of 5+ points with 12+ SU wins and not off an ATS loss of 6+ points.
These teams are 8-0 ATS ALL-TIME, blasting the spread by more than 18 ppg on average!
Also, undefeated teams have been very strong as a Bowl underdog of a TD or more. Specifically,
Play ON an undefeated Bowl underdog of 7+ points not off an ATS loss of 5+ points.
Since the 1980s, these teams are 7-0 ATS, while beating the spread by better than 15 ppg on average. Most recently, it was Boise State beating Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl 2 years ago.
Mountain West Conference underdogs of at least 6 points have been strong with more than 24 days rest, as they are 4-0 ATS ALL-TIME, beating the spread by more than 2 TDs per game on average.
Utah’s defense qualifies them for another Bowl POWER SYSTEM. This one states:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of 6+ points with 0 season games allowing 29+ points vs. an opponent not a favorite of more than 28 points in its last game.
Since 1990, these teams are 10-0 ATS, while obliterating the spread by nearly TWENTY points per game on average.
Meanwhile, ‘Bamas last NINE season-ending games, mostly Bowl Games, have been decided by single digits. They are 0-3 ATS as a Bowl favorite of more than 4 points since 1985.
We like to play AGAINST a big Bowl favorite that won its Bowl game last year. Teams tend to relax and lose their edge if they enjoyed a Bowl win the previous year. The bigger the win the previous Bowl game, whether by margin or meaningfulness, the harder it will be to capture that magic once again.
The Tide are active for a couple of our Bowl-exclusive POWER SYSTEMS themselves.
The first one state:
Play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of 4+ points off its only SU loss of the season vs. an opponent off a SU win.
These teams are 0-8 ATS since at least 1980, failing to cover the spread by 13 ppg on average. Most recently, it was Oklahoma playing for the national championship, losing the 2004 Sugar Bowl to LSU.
Bowl favorites of more than 4 points with no more than 4 weeks rest have been unable to recover from a Conference Championship loss as an underdog or favorite of less than 20 points. This is confirmed by another POWER SYSTEM that reads:
Play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of more than 4 points with less than 29 days rest off a Conference Championship SU loss (not as a favorite of 20+ points).
With Missouri failing to cover the spread against Northwestern in this Bowl season’s Alamo Bowl, these teams are now 0-9 ATS ALL-TIME, failing to cover the spread by more than 12 ppg on average.
While most are expecting another SEC beatdown of a non-BCS school like we watched in last season’s Sugar Bowl, this one should be different. First, Utah is more balanced on offense and has a much better defense than did Hawaii last year. Secondly, the Utes have shown they can play very well away from home against BCS competition. Finally, Alabama does not have the offensive explosiveness that Georgia had last year. This should allow the Utes to keep this game close the entire way for a comfortable spread win and possibly a shocking outright upset.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: UTAH 27 ALABAMA 24 (OT)
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