Friday 1/1/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors January 1, 7:30 EST

Atlantic leading Toronto (20-13, 18-15 ATS) could easily get stung by Hornets (17-14, 15-15-1 ATS). For whatever reason, the Bugs seem to bring their best against Purple Dinos'. Knocking off Raptors 109-99 as 3-point underdogs back on December 17th, the Hornets have now won 14-of-19 encounters cashing fifteen tickets (15-4 ATS). Here north of the border Hornets are a money making 7-2 ATS last nine meetings, 11-2 ATS last thirteen trips into Toronto.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Utes (11-2) at Cardinal (7-4)

Date: January 01, 2016 9:00 PM EDT

Utah took advantage of three straight home games to open Pac-12 play last season en route to what was easily its best showing in its brief tenure in the conference.

The 21st-ranked Utes don't have that luxury this season and begin a three-game road stretch to open their league schedule Friday night against Stanford.

Utah won its first four Pac-12 games in 2014-15 on its way to finishing 13-5 and in a second-place tie with Oregon. The Utes were a combined 17-37 in their first three seasons in the conference, including 3-24 on the road.

In order to improve on last season's 5-4 league mark away from home, Utah will likely need a better start than in its latest game.

The Utes (11-2) trailed 16-2 after the first 3:45 against the College of Idaho on Monday but held a double-digit lead by halftime in a 115-74 rout over the NAIA school.

"We weren't ready to play from the tip-off. It really got our attention. We have to be better," coach Larry Krystkowiak said. "A heads up as we head into league play. We have to get dialed in and make sure we're doing a lot better job."

Dakarai Tucker had a season-high 17 points as Krystkowiak made good use of his bench and tied Kyle Kuzma for the team lead. Kuzma is averaging 17.8 points on 56.0 percent shooting in his last four games.

Jakob Poeltl made all six of his shots while scoring 15 points and added 10 rebounds in his 22 minutes for his seventh double-double this season.

Utah lost its only previous road game 67-50 against Wichita State on Dec. 12, but topped then-No. 7 Duke 77-75 in overtime Dec. 19 as part of a 3-1 mark at neutral sites.

The Utes swept their two meetings with Stanford last season by a combined 40 points but didn't face the Cardinal (7-4) in Palo Alto. Utah has lost each of its three visits in Pac-12 play and four in a row overall since a 99-91 victory Jan. 23, 1971.

Stanford won five of its final six nonconference games following three consecutive losses in November. Two of those defeats were against teams that are currently ranked - Villanova and SMU - but only Villanova was in the Top 25 at the time.

The Cardinal fell 59-45 to the then-No. 8 Wildcats on Nov. 26 in the NIT Season Tip-Off and have lost five in a row to ranked teams, including last season's losses to Utah.

Stanford also faced an NAIA opponent in its latest game Sunday but was a lot better than Utah at the start, jumping out to a 17-2 lead in an 83-38 victory over Carroll College of Montana.

Sophomore swingman Dorian Pickens scored 18 and is averaging 19.5 on 53.7 percent shooting in his last four games, including a combined 15 of 28 from 3-point range.

"We believe in Dorian and what he is capable of," coach Johnny Dawkins said. "And he's not where he's going to be. He's hitting his stride. We watch it in practice and now we're seeing it translate."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bruins (9-5) at Huskies (8-4)

Date: January 01, 2016 11:00 PM EDT

Though he says his UCLA team is deeper heading into Pac-12 play than it was in his first two seasons, coach Steve Alford believes a nine-day layoff came at a good time.

Given the way he was performing, Isaac Hamilton might have a differing opinion.

In the conference opener for both teams, the junior guard will try to pick up where he left off during a historic stretch when the No. 25 Bruins return to action Friday night in Seattle seeking their sixth consecutive victory over struggling Washington.

UCLA wrapped up a nonconference schedule that included four games against ranked opponents with a 67-53 home win over McNeese State on Dec. 22. Alford and the Bruins hope the tough slate will better prepare them for Pac-12 play after finishing second and fourth the past two seasons.

"Thirteen games in and a month and a half in, we're ready for the Pac-12 but that doesn't guarantee victories," the coach said. "It's a demanding league, the No. 1 league in the country."

The Bruins might be ready defensively after holding the Cowboys to 30.3 percent shooting while owning a 54-35 advantage on the glass. They have a plus-6.3 rebound margin ahead of facing Washington, which ranks 11th among Pac-12 teams at plus-2.8.

"There are going to be a lot of battles (in the Pac-12) and our defense is going to be key," said center Thomas Welsh, who had 16 points and a career-high 14 rebounds.

Hamilton led the way with 18 points and a career-high 11 boards to help UCLA (9-4) bounce back after its five-game winning streak ended with a 89-76 loss against then-No. 11 North Carolina at the CBS Sports Classic in Brooklyn.

Hamilton has averaged 18.6 points while shooting 53.6 percent from the field over his last nine games. He's also become the first Bruins player with at least eight field goals in five straight since Tracy Murray did in six consecutive games in 1991.

In the only meeting with the Huskies last season, Hamilton had 16 points while hitting 3 of 6 from 3-point range to go with 10 assists in an 88-66 home win Feb. 25.

Tony Parker also shined with 20 points in that contest, though the senior big man is looking to get back on track after scoring six on 2-of-6 shooting against the Cowboys.

After a promising 7-2 start, Washington stumbled in a 97-83 home loss to Oakland on Dec. 19 before pulling out a 79-68 victory over visiting Seattle on Dec. 22. The Huskies then suffered another disappointing home loss Monday, falling 83-78 to UC Santa Barbara.

David Crisp and Malik Dime had 17 points apiece, but Washington (8-4) shot less than 40 percent while allowing at least 80 points for the second time in three games.

"We're a new group so I feel like we have to get over that hump of finding that spark and to play with if we don't see the ball going through the hoop," Crisp said.

Andrew Andrews, who averages a team-high 19.7 points, will try to break out of his mini-slump after shooting 30.8 percent over the past three games. The senior guard has played well versus UCLA, scoring a combined 35 points in the last two meetings.

The Bruins have won five straight in this series, including the past two in Seattle. Washington, though, has won three of its past four at home versus ranked opponents.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Friday's games..........

Tex-San Antonio swept North Texas 71-61/69-68 LY, after losing 71-62 here two years ago; Roadrunners lost last seven D-I games; its only D-I win was 82-79 at #303 Southern Utah. UTSA has 4th-worst defense in country- teams are shooting 57.8% inside arc against them. UNT is 3-1 in last four games; they're 0-4 in true road games, with three losses by 20+.

Washington State won seven of last ten games with USC; underdogs won last two series games SU. Trojans lost four of last five visits to Paloose, losing by 4-8-7-25 points. USC is 11-2 vs schedule #229; they won last six games, winning 75-63 at UCSB in only true road game. Coogs are 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 9-28-4 points; they're 7-1 at home, with one loss 69-60 to Gonzaga.

Utah swept Stanford 75-59/80-56 LY, after losing four of first five games in Pac-12 rivalry; Utes are 0-3 in Palo Alto, losing by 3-18-1- second win over Cardinal LY was in Pac-12 tourney. Utah is 11-2 vs schedule #201; this is its first D-I game in 10 days- they're shooting 58.6% inside arc. Stanford is 0-4 vs top 50 teams, with three losses by 14+; their best win was over #79 Arkansas.

UTEP is 11-2 in its last 13 games with Rice, winning last five, four by 9+ points; Owls lost eight of last nine visits to El Paso, losing last three here by 12-11-3 points. Rice lost four of last five D-I games, with couple of non-D-I wins in there; Owls have #341 eFG% defense. UTEP is 7-5 vs schedule #345; three of its five losses came at home. UTEP is forcing turnovers 21.5% of time (#43).

UCLA won its last five games with Washington, winning by 7-9 points in last two visits here. Bruins won six of last seven games with wins over Kentucky/Gonzaga; 71-66 win in Spokane was their only road game this season. UCLA has been off for 10 days. Huskies are very young (#348 in experience); they lost two of last three games, losing at home to UCSB Monday. Washington forces turnovers 21.7% of time (#39).

Colorado lost its first game, last game, won 11 in row in between; Buffs lost three of last four games with California- last three were all decided by 7 or less points. Buffs won by 7 at Auburn, by 11 at Colorado State in only true road games- they're shooting 40.7% on arc. Cal Bears won six of last seven games, beating Davidson by 26 last game; they've got the #9 eFG% defense in country, holding teams to 37.1% inside arc.

Home side won last five Western Illinois-Omaha games; Leathernecks lost last two visits here 71-60/77-58. WIU lost three of last four D-I tilts; they upset Wisconsin in opener, but lost last two games to teams outside top 200. Omaha is 2-6 vs top 200 teams; they're shooting 29.2% on arc, but force turnovers 20.6% of time (#70). Mavericks have been off for 10 days since winning couple of neutral court games in Las Vegas.

South Dakota won five of last six games with IUPUI; Jaguars lost four in a row in Vermillion, all by 10+ points. IUPUI is 3-11 vs D-I teams; they turn ball over 20.5% of time (#284), shoot just 41.4% inside arc. Coyotes lost three of last five games; three of their last four wins were in overtime. South Dakota is making 39.2% on arc; they're 4-0 vs teams outside top 200, with all four wins by nine or less points.

South Dakota State won three of last four games with Denver; Pioneers lost 78-69/69-39 in last two visits here. Denver scored 56 ppg in losing its last two games; they're 3-1 in true road games, but all four were with teams outside top 200. Jackrabbits are 11-3 vs schedule #89; they split last four games- this is their first true home game since Dec 13. SD State is shooting 38.7% on arc.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football notebook: TCU QB Boykin arrested, suspended
By The Sports Xchange

TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin was arrested and accused of assaulting a patrol officer following a fight at Pat O'Brien's in San Antonio early Thursday morning.
He was charged with public intoxication, resisting arrest and assaulting a public official, which a third-degree felony.
TCU suspended Boykin following the arrest.
It's a major challenge for the Horned Frogs to lose the senior starting quarterback days before No. 11 TCU plays No. 15 Oregon in the Alamo Bowl on Saturday.

--Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa plans to enter the NFL draft, Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer said.
Bosa, the No. 1 defensive player in the 2016 NFL Draft based on NFLDraftScout.com rankings, said earlier this week he would discuss his plans after the Fiesta Bowl game against Notre Dame.
NFLDraftScout.com senior analyst Rob Rang has touted Bosa as the top defensive player in the draft all season.

--California junior quarterback Jared Goff will forego his final season of college eligibility and enter the NFL Draft, he announced .
Goff's decision, which was expected, comes two days after he threw six touchdown passes in a 55-36 bowl-game victory over Air Force.
Goff is rated the No. 4 overall NFL prospect by NFLDraftScout.com, which projects him to be taken with the fifth overall pick by the San Francisco 49ers in its 2016 mock draft.

--Memphis junior quarterback Paxton Lynch is expected to enter the 2016 NFL Draft.
Lynch is projected as a potential top-10 pick by NFLDraftScout.com and joins a class of quarterbacks that includes California Jared Goff. Lynch is No. 20 on senior analyst Rob Rang's Big Board.
--Oklahoma defensive tackle Charles Walker is unavailable for the Orange Bowl on Thursday because of a concussion.
Walker was diagnosed with the head injury after Monday's practice in Miami.
The Sooners will miss Walker, who had six sacks and 10 tackles for loss this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

New Year's Day Primer
By Brian Edwards

Let’s take a quick look at the five games slated for New Year’s Day. We’ll start with the noon Eastern tilt between Northwestern and Tennessee at the Outback Bowl in Tampa.

Most books opened Tennessee (8-4 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) as a nine-point favorite. As of Dec. 9, a few books had adjusted the line to 8.5 and a couple of offshores were down to eight. Meanwhile, some offshores had the total at 45. The Wildcats were in the +275 range on the money line (risk $100 to win $275).

Butch Jones’s team has won five in a row after losing four gut-wrenching one-possession games in the early going. The Volunteers allowed double-digit leads to get away in their first three defeats vs. Oklahoma (31-24 in overtime), at Florida (28-27) and vs. Arkansas (24-20). They recovered to beat Georgia 38-31 and then gave Alabama its toughest game since losing to Ole Miss in Tuscaloosa.

UT had an open date after the win over the Bulldogs. With two weeks to prep for the Crimson Tide, the Vols came to Bryant-Denny Stadium ready to play. Jalen Hurd’s 12-yard touchdown run put them in front 14-13 with 5:49 remaining. However, Derrick Henry would answer with a 14-yard run to paydirt with 2:24 left.

Since then, UT has won four of its five games by 11 points or more. With that said, we can’t help but note that the Vols always play their weaker portion of the schedule, which includes Kentucky and Vanderbilt, in the month of November. Their five-game winning streak has been composed of triumphs over teams that all have losing records.

Junior QB Josh Dobbs has a 15/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s also rushed for 623 yards and nine TDs. Hurd has run for 1,155 yards and 11 TDs with a 4.6 yards-per-carry average. Alvin Kamara has produced 1,040 all-purpose yards and 10 TDs, while Evan Berry earned SEC Special-Teams Player of the Year honors.

Pat Fitzgerald’s team is back in the postseason following consecutive 5-7 campaigns. The Wildcats opened the season with a dominant 16-6 win over Stanford as 12-point home underdogs. Their losses came at Michigan (38-0) and vs. Iowa (40-10).

Northwestern (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) is seventh in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 16.4 points per game. However, the Wildcats are ranked No. 115 in total offense, No. 120 in passing and No. 112 with their 20.7 PPG average.

The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for Northwestern after cashing in three straight outings. Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for the Vols, who have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in their last four games.

UT is 1-2 both SU and ATS in three games as a single-digit favorite, while Northwestern owns a 5-2 record both SU and ATS in seven underdog situations.

Two of the country’s top defenses will be on display at the Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl, where Michigan and Florida will collide in a rematch of this same event in 2007 when Chad Henne made more play than Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow in a 40-35 win to send Lloyd Carr into retirement as a winner.

Most books had Michigan (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) listed as a four-point favorite on Dec. 9. The total was 41 at one offshore after opening at 43, while the Gators were +160 on the money line.

Florida (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) has dropped back-to-back game against Florida State (27-2) and Alabama (29-15) at the SEC Championship Game. UF’s offense has been an unmitigated disaster since the team suffered its first loss of the season at LSU in its first game without starting QB Will Grier, who was suspended for one year after testing positive for a banned substance.

UF put three defensive players on the All-SEC first team. Senior DT Jonathan Bullard, sophomore CB Jalen Tabor and junior CB Vernon Hargreaves III collected those honors. Bullard had 63 tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks and six QB hurries. Tabor had four interceptions, including a pair of pick-sixes, while Hargreaves had four interceptions. Marcus Maye didn’t capture SEC honors, but he was named a first-team All-American by USA Today. Maye, a junior safety, produced 73 tackles, four forced fumbles, 1.5 tackles for loss, two interceptions, three QB hurries and six passes broken up.

UF has been an underdog five times this year, going 3-2 ATS with a pair of outright victories at home over Tennessee (28-27) and Ole Miss (38-10).

Michigan has been a single-digit ‘chalk’ three times, posting a 2-1 spread record.

The ‘under’ cashed in Michigan’s first five games, but the ‘over’ has now hit in seven in a row. Meanwhile, UF has watched the ‘under’ go 5-2 in its seven games since Grier was suspended.

This showdown between the Big Ten and the SEC will take place in Orlando at 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

Ohio State saw Iowa get the Big Ten’s bid to the Rose Bowl, but the Buckeyes have only themselves to blame for not making the playoffs. They couldn’t beat Michigan State at home when the Spartans were playing without star QB Connor Cook.

Urban Meyer’s team salvaged the season by blasting arch-rival Michigan 42-13 at the Big House in the regular-season finale for both schools. However, it must settle for a New Year’s Six game in Glendale at the BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl. The machup has to be pleasing, though, as Ohio State will collide with Notre Dame’s storied program.

As of Dec. 10, most spots had Ohio State favored by 6.5 with a total of 53.5 points. The Fighting Irish were available for a +225 payout if it wins outright.

Ohio State (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) was a money burner for its backers for most of the season, but it did hook up its supporters at a 4-2 ATS clip in its last six outings. The Buckeyes were favored by 13.5 points or more in every game except their blowout win over the Wolverines as one-point road ‘chalk.’

Notre Dame (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) had a stellar season, especially when considering the fact that it lost six starters to season-ending injuries by mid-October. Brian Kelly’s team was in the hunt for CFP berth, only to see those hopes evaporate when Stanford made a last-second field goal to dust off the Irish 38-36 in the regular-season finale.

Notre Dame was an underdog three times this year, producing a 3-0 spread record with one outright victory. The defeats came by four combined points, as it lost 24-22 at Clemson.

Notre Dame has quality wins against Navy (41-24), USC (41-31), at Temple (24-20) and at Pittsburgh (42-30). When starting QB Malik Zaire went down with a season-ending injury in a 34-27 come-from-behind win at Virginia in Week 2, redshirt freshman DeShone Kizer became the starting signal caller. Kizer completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,596 yards with a 19/9 TD-INT ratio.

C.J. Prosise rushed for a team-best 1,029 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 6.6 YPC. However, he missed the game at Stanford with a high-ankle sprain and remains ‘questionable’ vs. Ohio State On the bright side, Kelly is hopeful that a pair of starters in junior DT Jarron Jones and sophomore TE Durham Smythe will return against the Buckeyes.

The ‘under’ cashed at a lucrative 9-3 overall clip for the Buckeyes, while totals have been an overall wash for the Irish.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Iowa was chosen ahead of OSU for the Rose Bowl after nearly going unbeaten and winning the Big Ten Championship Game. But Michigan State was able to rally late in the fourth quarter to scalp the Hawkeyes, 16-13.

Nevertheless, Kirk Ferentz’s team enjoyed a remarkable season and will be rewarded with a trip to Pasadena to take on Stanford, the Pac-12 champ which trashed Southern Cal by a 41-22 count in the league title game.

As of Dec. 9, most betting shops had Stanford (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS) installed as a 6.5-point favorite. The Cardinal has been a single-digit ‘chalk’ four times this season, compiling a 2-2 spread record. They have seen the ‘over’ go 7-6 overall after cashing in back-to-back outings and three of their last four.

Iowa (12-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) has been an underdog just twice, going 1-0-1 ATS with an outright win at Wisconsin (10-6) as a five-point puppy. The Hawkeyes’ best victories include vs. Pitt (27-24), at Northwestern (40-10) and the aforementioned win at Camp Randall.

Kickoff is slated for 5:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

The Allstate Sugar Bowl will feature an SEC-Big 12 encounter between Ole Miss (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) and Oklahoma State at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. Most books have had the Rebels listed as seven-point favorites.

Hugh Freeze’s club owns quality wins at Alabama (43-37), against Texas A&M (23-3), at Auburn (27-19), against LSU (38-17) and at Mississippi State (38-27). However, Ole Miss came up short at Florida (38-10), at Memphis (37-24) and vs. Arkansas. The Rebels lost to the Razorbacks in double overtime due to a pair of unfortunate plays. On fourth and 25 in double OT, Arkansas TE Hunter Henry caught a pass short of the first-down marker, but he lateraled the ball across the field before going down.

Alex Collins eventually got the ball and rumbled across the field for a first down. After scoring to pull within one, the Hogs chose to go for two. Ole Miss appeared to have QB Brandon Allen sacked, but the defender grabbed Allen’s facemask to give Arkansas one more chance. Allen ran in the subsequent conversion attempt to lift the Hogs to a miraculous 53-52 win.

Oklahoma State (10-2 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) won its first 10 games, only to see its CFP hopes dashed with consecutive setbacks at home to Baylor (45-35) and Oklahoma (58-23). The Cowboys have compiled a 2-2 record both SU and ATS in four games as underdogs this year. They have watched the ‘over’ hit in six straight games.

Ole Miss has been a single-digit favorite six times, going 3-3 versus the number. The Rebels have seen the ‘under’ go 8-1 in their last nine contests. They badly want to send out the three main pieces of the school’s greatest recruiting class in victorious fashion. OT Laremy Tunsil, WR Laquon Treadwell and Robert Nkemdiche are expected to turn pro since each is projected as a Top-10 pick.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Predictions: Week 15 and Bowl Games Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Did Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson or Stanford do-it-all running back Christian McCaffrey do enough in their conference championship games to beat out Alabama running back Derrick Henry for the Heisman Trophy?

The deadline for voting for this year's Heisman passed at 5 p.m. Monday, and the ceremony is Saturday in New York. Henry, Watson and McCaffrey were named the three finalists Monday evening; it's a shame that Navy record-setting quarterback Keenan Reynolds didn't get an invite (more on him below).

If I had a vote, I'd probably go with Watson since he's the starting quarterback on the nation's top-ranked and only unbeaten team. Watson was spectacular in the ACC Championship Game win over North Carolina, passing for 289 yards and three scores and running 24 times for 131 yards and two more touchdowns. Go ahead and pencil the sophomore in as your early 2016 Heisman favorite -- especially if the Tigers win it all this season. Watson will have the highest finish in the Heisman voting of any Clemson player ever (previous high was No. 6).

McCaffrey, also a sophomore, was brilliant himself in the Pac-12 Championship Game win over USC. McCaffrey rushed 32 times for 207 yards and a score, caught four passes for 105 yards and a touchdown and even threw an 11-yard TD. He finished with 461 all-purpose yards and broke Barry Sanders' NCAA single-season record for all-purpose yardage. McCaffrey now has 3,496 and can really put that put that out of reach for anyone anytime soon with a big Rose Bowl against Iowa. It should be noted that Sanders put up his 3,250 yards in 1988 in two fewer games.

But I think Henry wins the vote -- he's the -300 favorite -- after he capped the regular season with a 44-carry, 189-yard, one-TD effort in the SEC title game win over Florida. Henry, a junior, presumably will declare for the NFL Draft and he should because Nick Saban is running him into the ground. Henry now has 90 carries combined in the past two games and has toted the rock 339 times for 1,986 yards and 23 scores this year, all school records.

Here is the one Week 15 opening line and a few other interesting bowl spreads/totals.

No. 11 TCU vs. No. 15 Oregon (+1, 73.5): This Jan. 2 matchup in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio has the highest total on the board and rightly so between two of the nation's top offenses. TCU is third (564.3 yards per game) while Oregon is sixth (548.2) nationally in total offense. In scoring, Oregon is sixth (43.2) and TCU eighth (41.7). This could have easily been pictured as a College Football Playoff semifinal when the season began. The Ducks are peaking at the right time with six straight wins, including over ranked Stanford and USC. TCU lost two of its final four games but ended Baylor's College Football Playoff chances with a 28-21 double-overtime win in the Frogs' regular-season finale. TCU has been without one of the nation's best receivers in Josh Doctson for the past two games but he has a good chance of playing in the bowl. Doctson has 79 catches for 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns. This would be his final game as well as that for star quarterback Trevone Boykin, who entered this season as the Heisman betting favorite. At stake for Oregon is a 10-win year for an eighth consecutive season, a streak that would tie Alabama (2008-2015), Virginia Tech (2004-11) and Miami (1985-92) for the fourth-longest run of 10-win seasons in college football's modern era.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Need-to-know betting notes for college football bowl teams
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Betting college football bowl games this month but don’t have time to cap during the hectic holiday season? Joe Fortenbaugh plays “Santa’s Little Helper” when it comes to betting bowls, giving you 80 must-know notes for all 80 bowl teams:

Outback Bowl: Friday, January 1

Northwestern Wildcats: He may be just 1-4 in bowl games as the head coach at Northwestern, but be advised that Pat Fitzgerald is 4-1 ATS in postseason play.

Tennessee Volunteers: Head coach Butch Jones is 3-1 ATS in bowl games during his career, which includes a 1-0 ATS mark as the boss at Tennessee following last January’s 45-28 dismantling of the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Taxslayer Bowl.

Battlefrog Fiesta Bowl: Friday, January 1

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The Irish are 7-1 ATS over their last eight games against teams with a winning record and 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games overall, but be advised that head coach Brian Kelly is just 2-6 ATS in bowl games for his career.

Ohio State Buckeyes: A 17-14 home loss to Michigan State on November 21 was quickly forgotten following a 42-13 thrashing of the Wolverines in Ann Arbor to close out the season. Pay close attention to the fact that Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer is a blistering 9-2 both SU and ATS in postseason play.

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl: Friday, January 1

Michigan Wolverines: Head coach Jim Harbaugh is a perfect 2-0 ATS in bowl games during his collegiate coaching career.

Florida Gators: The Gators failed to top 28 points in each of their final eight games of the season and averaged just 12.0 points per game over the program’s final five contests of the 2015 campaign. Be advised that a staggering 84 percent of bets placed on the total for this matchup at the time of publication were in favor of the under.

Rose Bowl: Friday, January 1

Stanford Cardinal: Stanford is 5-1 ATS over its last six bowl games and 12-4 ATS over its last 16 games overall.

Iowa Hawkeyes: Head coach Kirk Ferentz is a career 8-4 ATS in bowl games.

Allstate Sugar Bowl: Friday, January 1

Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys commenced the 2015 season by winning each of their first ten games before dropping back-to-back home contests to Baylor (45-35) and Oklahoma (58-23) to close out the season. In addition, note that head coach Mike Gundy is just 3-6 ATS in postseason play.

Mississippi Rebels: Ole Miss won four of its final five contests by an average of 15.0 points per game and enters January with a 4-1-1 ATS mark over its last six bowl games.

Taxslayer Bowl: Saturday, January 2

Penn State Nittany Lions: Head coach James Franklin’s first bowl appearance with the Lions resulted in a 31-30 victory over Boston College last December. But more importantly, be advised that the point spread for the Taxslayer Bowl has shifted off the key number of Georgia -7 to Georgia -6.5 despite the fact that 52 percent of the bets already placed have been in support of the Bulldogs.

Georgia Bulldogs: Big question mark here as former head coach Mark Richt is now in Miami not to mention the fact that several of his assistants have also bolted the Georgia program for other positions around the country. Georgia could very well lay an egg in this matchup, so proceed with extreme caution.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Volunteers (8-4) at Wildcats (10-2)

Date: January 01, 2016 12:00 PM EDT

Pat Fitzgerald won his second straight Bronko Nagurski and Chuck Bednarik awards as the nation's defensive player of the year in 1996 before Northwestern lost to Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl in his final collegiate game.

The Wildcats didn't match that nine-win season again until Fitzgerald took over as coach in 2006, part of a string of coaching accomplishments that includes Northwestern's only bowl victory since 1949.

Fittingly, the Wildcats' defense is a major reason Fitzgerald can become the first coach in school history to win 11 games, a mark he can set Friday in the Outback Bowl in Northwestern's first meeting with the Volunteers since Fitzgerald last wore the uniform.

Fitzgerald's passion for Northwestern football in part earned him the head job as a 31-year-old following the unexpected death of coach Randy Walker after the 2005 season. He often concludes interviews by saying "Go Cats!" and is one of the most animated coaches in the country on the sidelines.

He guided Northwestern to its first postseason victory in 63 years by beating Mississippi State in the TaxSlayer Bowl after the 2012 campaign to match the school record of 10 wins, but the 12th-ranked Wildcats haven't been back to a bowl until this season.

They finished 10-2 and 6-2 in the Big Ten and ranked 11th in the nation in total defense, allowing 310.5 yards per game. Northwestern held seven opponents to fewer than 100 on the ground.

It had a pair of shutouts and limited two more opponents to fewer than eight points, including wins over now-No. 5 Stanford and then-No. 21 Wisconsin.

"We've worked so hard all season to get to this point," cornerback Matthew Harris said. "We're really embracing going out on the field with each other just because it's been such a great season for us.

"To be the first team to win 11 games, it's something about just leaving a legacy. It's something this program has never done before."

Fitzgerald hopes for a better result than the last time Northwestern faced Tennessee, when Peyton Manning carved up the Wildcats for 408 yards and four touchdown passes in the Volunteers' 48-28 victory 19 years ago.

Tennessee won the national championship two years later, but it eventually went through some difficult seasons like Northwestern and has gone through multiple coaches to find a solution.

Butch Jones has improved the Volunteers (8-4) in each of his three seasons and has them in a bowl game for the second straight year after guiding the program to its most victories since going 10-4 in 2007.

Tennessee beat Iowa in last year's TaxSlayer Bowl in its first postseason game since 2010.

"I think we have accomplished a lot," Jones said. "The players have come each and every day. They have had a high level of intensity. We've seen that and every practice has been with competitiveness, but also attention to details.

"Now it's being able to go down to the bowl site, put all of your focus, your energy and your preparation down there and be ready to go."

Both teams enter riding five-game winning streaks, with Tennessee overcoming a rough start. The Vols lost four of their first seven - all by seven points or fewer - and led now-No. 2 Alabama in the fourth quarter before allowing a late touchdown.

Joshua Dobbs has excelled in his first full season as a starter, throwing 15 touchdown passes and running for nine more. He also caught a TD pass.

"I think that the experiences that he has gained over time has helped in the maturation process as a leader, as a quarterback," Jones said. "This year, he has continued to progress and get better and better. He defines what a student-athlete is all about."

The Vols finished second in the SEC with 223.5 rushing yards per game, as Jalen Hurd had 1,158 and 11 touchdowns. Alvin Kamara averaged 6.7 yards per rush and scored six times.

"They have two spectacular backs. They're really powerful, real explosive," Harris said. "Their quarterback makes plays, so it's going to be a really tough challenge."

Northwestern also relies heavily on the run, with freshman quarterback Clayton Thorson rushing for five touchdowns and throwing for fewer than 100 yards four times. Justin Jackson led the Big Ten with 298 rushing attempts and finished second with 1,344 yards.

"I feel like we got a lot accomplished and really installed our game plan for how we want to play Northwestern," Tennessee freshman linebacker Darrin Kirkland said. "We've really studied them and their personnel does a really good job. We are looking forward to playing them in Tampa."

This will be the last game at Tennessee for tight ends coach and special teams coordinator Mark Elder, who has accepted the coaching job at Eastern Kentucky.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Gators (10-3) at Wolverines (9-3)

Date: January 01, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

Despite some down moments during their first seasons, Jim Harbaugh and Jim McElwain have their programs in a good place after a couple of lean years.

Playing on New Year's Day is ample proof, but only a victory can ease the pain of a few crushing losses to their biggest rivals.

Harbaugh is set to lead No. 17 Michigan into a Citrus Bowl matchup against McElwain and 19th-ranked Florida.

Coming off a 5-7 season under Brady Hoke, Michigan hired Harbaugh last December to bring college football's winningest program back to prominence. The former Wolverines quarterback fell short of fully realizing that goal, but Michigan (9-3, 6-2 Big Ten) is on the cusp of winning 10 games for the first time since going 11-2 in 2011.

The standards in Ann Arbor, however, remain astronomically high, and a heartbreaking loss to Michigan State on a blocked punt in the closing seconds and the program falling to 2-13 against archrival Ohio State since 2001 have left fans and alumni starved.

"I'm very proud of the team the way they've worked and the way they've progressed," said Harbaugh, a Wolverine under Bo Schembechler from 1983-86. "We've closed a lot of ground. More ground to make up, but knowing our team, we will keep working hard."

McElwain also walked into a testy situation last December after the Gators went 10-13 under Will Muschamp from 2013-14, but he did plenty to reverse the culture in Gainesville while leading Florida to a blowout of Ole Miss on Oct. 3 en route to a 10-1 start.

The only loss in that stretch came at LSU, but a 27-2 smackdown by Florida State at The Swamp on Nov. 28 put a damper on the SEC East Division title before the Gators lost 29-15 to Alabama in the conference title game.

"We're a program on the rise," said McElwain. "These seniors and guys that are going to come out early built a great foundation for the future, and I'm proud of them."

A player McElwain was counting on for that future is no longer a part of it after Florida announced that suspended quarterback Will Grier will transfer. Grier was banned for a year by the NCAA on Oct. 12 for using performance-enhancing drugs.

"This has been very difficult on him and obviously he is looking for a fresh start," McElwain said.

The redshirt freshman had an SEC-best 65.8 completion percentage through six games with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions, but things have dipped in his absence for an offense that has only one touchdown in its last two games.

"We haven't finished the season quite like we wanted to and definitely don't intend on having the seniors go out with a loss," junior defensive end Jordan Sherit said.

Treon Harris completed 51.9 percent of his passes in place of Grier with nine touchdowns and five picks, and he's had some trouble outside the pocket with just 2.2 yards per carry while being sacked 29 times - roughly one for every 10 snaps he's taken.

Kelvin Taylor - who announced that he'll enter the NFL draft after this game - had 13 rushing TDs during a season in which he fell shy of 1,000 yards (985) after Alabama held him to eight on seven carries. The Gators had 15 total that day.

Leading Florida's struggling offense is coordinator Doug Nussmeier, who spent 2014 in that role under Hoke and needs to get things going against his former team, whose offensive players may be able to impart some knowledge to their teammates on defense.

"He's a great coordinator," said Wolverines wide receiver Jehu Chesson. "He emphasizes not turning the ball over, emphasizes the big plays. But at the same time, it's the Xs and Os of football, so whoever wins the turnover margin wins the game."

Florida will be tested by a Michigan defense that ranked fourth in the FBS with 281.3 yards and 11th with 17.2 points allowed per game, but the Wolverines will have a fresh coaching look after coordinator D.J. Durkin accepted the head job at Maryland.

Defensive line coach Greg Mattison, the coordinator of the defense for the previous four years, will again take the reins against the Gators.

"I came in (as a freshman) and my first game was under him and I'm going out and my last game is going to be played with him calling the defense, too, so it's pretty exciting from my standpoint," said senior linebacker Joe Bolden.

The Gators were no slouches on defense, either, and gave up the sixth-fewest yards (295.4) and eighth-fewest points (16.5) in the FBS. Defensive tackle Jon Bullard is the player to watch and had 63 tackles, including 17 1/2 for loss, and 6 1/2 sacks.

Chesson led the Wolverines' pro-style offense with eight touchdown catches and his 646 receiving yards were second to Amara Darboh, who had 703 yards and five TD receptions. De'Veon Smith spearheaded the rushing attack with 644 yards and six TDs.

Jake Rudock, who had 2,729 passing yards with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions, injured his non-throwing shoulder in a 42-13 loss to the Buckeyes on Nov. 28 but has said he'll be ready to face Florida.

The Wolverines are 23-8-1 all-time against teams from the SEC, and two of their three wins in their last 11 bowl appearances came against the Gators in the '03 Outback Bowl and '08 Capital One Bowl - both in the Sunshine State.

"We gotta go out with a bang," said Florida all-SEC cornerback Jalen Tabor, who returned two of his four interceptions for touchdowns. "Going into next season on a positive note will be huge."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Fighting Irish (10-2) at Buckeyes (11-1)

Date: January 01, 2016 1:00 PM EDT

Three points and four points. That's the difference between Ohio State and Notre Dame not reaching the College Football Playoff as undefeated teams and instead meeting in the Fiesta Bowl on Friday.

Though the matchup in Glendale, Arizona, might feel like a consolation prize to the No. 7 Buckeyes and eighth-ranked Fighting Irish, it has the feel of a playoff game.

'This is my last game, so it's a championship game to me,' Buckeyes senior left tackle Taylor Decker said. 'I don't think any of the `New Year's Six' (games) have lost their luster just because you're not playing for a championship.'

Ohio State and Notre Dame sat third and fourth in the CFP rankings Nov. 17 behind Alabama and Clemson, which at that point had handed the Irish their only loss, 24-22 on Oct. 3 after Notre Dame failed on a 2-point conversion with seven seconds left.

The Irish beat Boston College at Fenway Park on Nov. 21, but the three-point win caused them to drop to sixth in the next CFP rankings. However, that was two spots ahead of the Buckeyes after they lost 17-14 to Michigan State on a 41-yard field goal as time expired to have their 23-game winning streak snapped.

That defeat wound up costing Ohio State a shot to defend its national title because the one-loss teams the Buckeyes were chasing - Alabama, Michigan State and Oklahoma - all won out to reach the playoff along with unbeaten Clemson.

'This is an exceptional group that came up a few seconds short,' coach Urban Meyer said.

Notre Dame also still had a chance at finishing in the top four as it headed to Stanford for its finale Nov. 28. The Irish took a one-point lead with 30 seconds left only to watch the Cardinal hit a 45-yard field goal with no time remaining to pull out a 38-36 win.

'We're two plays away from being undefeated and being the No. 1 team in the country,' coach Brian Kelly said.

Those results left Ohio State (11-1) seventh in the final CFP rankings and Notre Dame (10-2) at No. 8, setting up their sixth meeting and first since the fourth-ranked Buckeyes beat the No. 5 Irish 34-20 on Jan. 2, 2006 - also in the Fiesta Bowl.

'This is an opportunity to play a national championship-caliber of a game, an opponent that is definitely one of the best in the country,' Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer said.

Kizer is one of many who had to step in for the Irish due to injuries to key players. The sophomore took over in the second game at Virginia after Malik Zaire went down with a season-ending ankle injury.

Kizer hit Will Fuller on a 39-yard touchdown pass with 12 seconds left to give the Irish a 34-27 win over the Cavaliers. That victory came one week after Notre Dame lost Tarean Folston, who led the team with 889 rushing yards in 2014, to a torn ACL in the opener against Texas.

Senior C.J. Prosise became the No. 1 running back and rushed for 1,032 yards and 11 TDs, but even he missed two games late in the season because of injuries, including the finale. Freshman Josh Adams replaced Prosise in those contests and rushed for 141 yards against Wake Forest and 168 at Stanford.

Cornerback KeiVarae Russell, nose tackle Jarron Jones, safety Drue Tranquill, linebacker James Onwualu and tight end Durham Smythe were among other players who missed time due to injuries.

Jones and Smythe have returned to practice and hope to play in the bowl game, while Prosise and Onwualu are expected to be available.

'They just keep going and they keep moving forward. That's kind of the mentality of this group,' Kelly said.

Ohio State wasn't hit by the injury bug, but it had plenty of other issues.

There seemed to be a story surrounding the starting quarterback position every week, and junior running back Ezekiel Elliott put himself in the news after complaining about a lack of carries following the loss to the Spartans and saying he was leaving for the NFL after the season.

Cardale Jones led the Buckeyes to the first-ever CFP championship last season after J.T. Barrett got injured, and he opened 2015 as the starting quarterback. The inconsistent Jones was replaced after seven games by Barrett, who got the nod against Rutgers on Oct. 24 but was then arrested during the bye week on charges of driving while impaired.

Barrett was suspended for the following game against Minnesota before returning to start the final three.

'You second guess and over analyze everything,' Meyer said. ' ... Now it's just let's go play our tails off one more time, and we're a great football team and let's finish this thing the right way.'

Another Ohio State player was disciplined following the season. Defensive lineman Adolphus Washington is suspended for this game after being cited by police for solicitation Dec. 9. The senior had 49 tackles - seven for loss - four sacks and an interception that he returned 20 yards for a TD.

Jones and Barrett combined for 3,020 total yards and 31 touchdowns, while Elliott was fifth in the FBS with 1,672 rushing yards and tied for third with 19 touchdowns on the ground. Elliott was the Big Ten offensive player of the year and one of seven Buckeyes named to the conference's first team.

Kizer passed for 2,600 yards and 19 TDs with nine interceptions and added 499 yards on the ground with nine scores, matching the school record by a quarterback set by Tony Rice and Rick Mirer. Fuller caught 56 passes for 1,145 yards and tied for sixth in the FBS with 13 TDs.

Fuller, Elliott, Decker, Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa and Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith and tackle Ronnie Stanley are among nine AP All-Americans that will play in this contest - the most in any bowl game.

Bosa, Decker, Stanley and Smith, who won the Dick Butkus Award as the nation's most outstanding linebacker, are projected as top-10 draft picks.

'Two legendary programs; we have a lot of respect for Notre Dame,' said Meyer, who coached wide receivers for the Irish from 1996-2000. 'A great bowl game, too.'

Kelly is gearing up for another tough game after Notre Dame was the only team in the nation to play five teams in the CFP rankings, going 3-2. Plus, the Buckeyes ranked second in the FBS with 14 points allowed per game.

'It's Ohio State. They're the defending national champs,' he said. 'It's a darned good football team. But I think we know who we are, and we've been tested by some very, very good football teams.'

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Hawkeyes (12-1) at Cardinal (11-2)

Date: January 01, 2016 5:00 PM EDT

(AP) - Iowa and Stanford barely missed out on the College Football Playoff.

The Rose Bowl is a pretty great place to forget your sorrows.

The sixth-ranked Hawkeyes (12-1) will face the No. 5 Cardinal (11-2) on Friday in the 102nd edition of the Granddaddy of Them All.

Iowa and Stanford finished in the final two spots outside the four-team playoff, yet they earned coveted spots in the traditional year-end intersectional matchup between the Big Ten and Pac-12 powers.

'If this is the consolation prize, what a deal it is for both of us,' Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said.

Even though the Hawkeyes lost their unbeaten season and the Big Ten title game to Michigan State on a late touchdown Dec. 5, they still held off Ohio State to earn their first trip to Pasadena since Jan. 1, 1991. Ferentz will cap his 17th season at Iowa with his first Rose Bowl appearance as a head coach.

'This news is good medicine, I think, for all of us, just to ease the tough outcome,' said Ferentz, the offensive line coach on two Rose Bowl teams at Iowa in the 1980s.

While the Hawkeyes hadn't made the Rose Bowl in a generation, Pasadena has become a second home for Stanford coach David Shaw's improbable Bay Area powerhouse.

The Cardinal earned their third Rose Bowl berth in four years by beating then-No. 24 Southern California 41-22 in the Pac-12 title game Dec. 5. Stanford beat Wisconsin three years ago to earn its first Rose Bowl victory since the 1971 season, but lost to Michigan State two years ago.

'We too are excited about going back to Pasadena,' Shaw said. 'The Rose Bowl people have been phenomenal the times that we've gone. That's a rare occurrence nowadays, but we're looking forward to the week, looking forward to a great game.'

Stanford also had hopes of a playoff spot after finishing the season with big wins over then-No. 4 Notre Dame and USC, but conference title game victories by Clemson and Alabama consigned the Cardinal to Pasadena.

Although both football programs date to the 19th century, Iowa and Stanford have never faced each other. Shaw and Ferentz have only a passing acquaintance, but both coaches have watched the other's program occasionally through the season.

'I loved what Iowa did during the course of this year as being one of those under-the-radar teams that kept winning ... and finally people started to notice the phenomenal job that was going on,' Shaw said. 'I love well-coached teams that fight and scrap and eventually get what they deserve.'

Cardinal running back and Heisman Trophy runner-up Christian McCaffrey will cap his incredible season with his first appearance in the Rose Bowl game. The 19-year-old sophomore has gained more yards in a season than anybody in the history of college football with 3,496, breaking Barry Sanders' record of 3,250 set in 1988, while racking up a school-record 461 total yards against the Trojans.

'That's a guy I had posters on my wall of growing up,' McCaffrey said. 'Even to be mentioned in the same category is definitely an honor.'

He also threw a touchdown pass, caught a touchdown pass and rushed for another score against USC. Shaw called McCaffrey 'the best player in the nation. It's not even a debate. I don't know if that's even a question. There's nobody in the nation doing what he's been doing.'

While McCaffrey has spent the season running wild behind Stanford's imposing offensive line, Iowa also has a vaunted running game built around four carriers: Jordan Canzeri, LeShun Daniels Jr., Derrick Mitchell Jr. and Akrum Wadley.

Canzeri, who led the team with 976 yards and 12 TDs, calls them the 'Four Deadly Horsemen,' and the Hawkeyes ran for at least 100 yards in every game.

Although it took 25 years for Iowa to get back to Pasadena, it's been even longer since the Hawkeyes could celebrate a victory. They haven't won the Rose Bowl since Jan. 1, 1959, when the Big Ten champions beat California and were named national champions by the Football Writers Association of America. Famed coach Hayden Fry never won the Rose Bowl, losing each of his three Big Ten championship teams' trips to Pasadena before Ferentz replaced him in 1999.

The Pac-12 has sent just three different teams to the Rose Bowl in the past 13 years: USC, Oregon and Stanford, which is making its 15th Rose Bowl appearance. The school hadn't made three Rose Bowl trips in four years since 1933-35, when Stanford played in three straight.

Iowa is the seventh different Big Ten team to play in Pasadena in the past 13 years, with Wisconsin and Michigan making three appearances apiece.

'(Shaw's) been part of a long-lasting run of success there,' Ferentz said. 'They have done a great job underneath him. So, it's going to be a great challenge for us. I know that.'

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rebels (9-3) at Cowboys (10-2)

Date: January 01, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

Mississippi and Oklahoma State get to renew their recent postseason rivalry in the Sugar Bowl, though the Rebels will do so without one of their top defensive players.

Robert Nkemdiche has played his final college game and is headed to the NFL after an incident at an Atlanta hotel as the Rebels and Cowboys meet in the postseason for the third time since 2004 on Friday night.

Coach Hugh Freeze said in a statement that Nkemdiche was told he "will not be joining us" for the bowl game after the lineman was charged with marijuana possession following a 15-foot fall at the hotel Dec. 12. The school said he will enter the NFL draft as a junior.

Freeze said the school will "support him as he prepares for the next chapter in his life."

Nkemdiche is a second-team All-American and possible top-10 draft pick. He has 29 tackles, seven for losses, including three sacks. He also scored three touchdowns for Ole Miss, which used him at fullback at times.

"While I wish I could have finished this journey with my team, I am grateful for the opportunity to have been a part of this program, and I am ready to begin the next phase of my life," Nkemdiche said in a statement.

"I have learned a valuable lesson in the last week, and I look forward to showing NFL personnel that this is not representative of my true character."

Shutting down the No. 13 Cowboys (10-2) will likely prove more difficult for Ole Miss without Nkemdiche, as Oklahoma State averaged 489.5 yards - 17th in the FBS.

The 16th-ranked Rebels can take heart in the fact they've had Oklahoma State's number in the two recent postseason matchups, both at the Cotton Bowl. Ole Miss (9-3) won 31-28 on Jan. 2, 2004, and 21-7 on Jan. 2, 2010.

Now they'll play in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

Ole Miss returns to a New Year's Six bowl for the second straight season and would like to play better than last year. The Rebels were embarrassed in a 42-3 loss to TCU in the Peach Bowl.

Freeze said he wouldn't remind players much about the TCU loss. Instead, he hopes the lessons learned from that game will help the program moving forward.

"I'm proud of our program for being one of the few to make it back to a 'New Year's Six' bowl," Freeze said. "My childhood was spent hearing Rebel fans talk about Archie (Manning) leading us to a Sugar Bowl win, and I'm thrilled for our players, coaches and fans to return to New Orleans and represent the Southeastern Conference."

Oklahoma State will try to bounce back after more recent setbacks. The Cowboys won their first 10 games before back-to-back losses to Baylor and Oklahoma - the latter a 58-23 rout at home.

Oklahoma State likely jumped Baylor for a spot in the Sugar Bowl when the Bears lost to Texas on Dec. 5.

Coach Mike Gundy said he was at an 11-year-old basketball tournament in rural Oklahoma when the Baylor-Texas game was happening and didn't have cellphone service. He didn't realize the Longhorns had pulled off the upset until he left, drove down the road a few miles and his phone lit up with messages.

"What a great opportunity for our young men who have worked so hard over the last 11 months," Gundy said. "Congrats to Ole Miss and their team. We're looking forward to a great game in a historic bowl."

Ole Miss hasn't been to the Sugar Bowl since 1970 when Manning was the quarterback, while Oklahoma State will be making its first appearance in the Big Easy since 1946.

"It's kind of a bucket list thing if you're the coach of Ole Miss to participate in this bowl," Freeze said.

All signs point to a shootout. Oklahoma State ranks ninth in the country with 41.2 points per game while Ole Miss is 14th with 40.3. Both teams love to throw the ball and have star receivers - the Rebels' Laquon Treadwell and the Cowboys' James Washington. Ole Miss' Chad Kelly led the SEC with 3,740 yards passing.

Defensively, Ole Miss will have to rely more heavily on end Marquis Haynes with Nkemdiche out. Haynes leads the team with 14 tackles for loss, including 9 1/2 sacks.

Oklahoma State counters with Emmanuel Ogbah, whose 13 sacks rank fourth in the country.

"(The Rebels) have a physical front. They are able to run the ball, and their quarterback is very talented," Cowboys linebacker Seth Jacobs said. "He can run, he can throw and he makes a lot of people miss. We have to stay sound in tackling and making sure we're in the right spot at the right time."

The Cowboys' chances of winning will likely be better if starting quarterback Mason Rudolph can return from a foot injury. Rudolph missed most of the season finale against the Sooners because of the injury, forcing backup J.W. Walsh into action.

The QB situation remains murky.

"We've leaned more on J.W. because we have to facilitate our team at this time," Gundy said. "If Rudolph's healthy, then we'll have to make a decision in the middle of bowl practice on how to distribute reps. It's a difficult question to answer, but I would say that with the increased role and number of practice reps that J.W. has gotten, we would expect him to play at least half the game either way, depending on Mason's health."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Early Bowl Tips
By Brian Edwards

**Tennessee vs. Northwestern**

-- Tennessee and Northwestern will square off on New Year’s Day at noon Eastern in Tampa at the Outback Bowl. As of New Year’s Eve, most books had the Volunteers installed as eight-point favorites with a total of 48 for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Wildcats were +270 on the money line (risk $100 to win $270).

-- Tennessee (8-4 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) brings a five-game winning streak into the postseason after winning its most regular-season games since 2007. Four of those five wins during this spree have come by margins of 11 points or more. Butch Jones’s squad closed the regular season by pounding Vanderbilt 53-28 as an 18.5-point home favorite. Josh Dobbs completed 13-of-21 passes for 140 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. The junior signal caller also rushed 11 times for 93 yards and one TD. Jalen Hurd ran for a team-best 120 yards and one TD on 19 carries, while Alvin Kamara rushed 16 times for 99 yards. Kamara also had a pair of receptions for 52 yards, while Hurd had four catches for 35 yards. Von Pearson had both TD catches for the Vols.

-- Tennessee very easily could’ve won the SEC East if not for blowing double-digit leads in its first three losses. A fourth loss (19-14) at Alabama saw UT give up a late fourth-quarter score. Jones’s team led Oklahoma 17-0 at one point but lost to the Sooners 31-24 in overtime. UT held a 27-14 advantage at Florida midway through the fourth quarter, only to give up a pair of touchdown drives, including a game-winning TD pass by the Gators on a fourth-and-14 play. The other loss came at home to Arkansas (24-20) after the Vols led 14-0 in the first half.

-- Dobbs enjoyed an excellent campaign. He completed 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,125 yards with a 15/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Dobbs also ran for 623 yards and nine TDs while averaging 4.6 yards per carry. He also had a 58-yard TD catch against the Gators.

-- Hurd, a true sophomore, rushed for 1,155 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 4.6 YPC. Hurd also had 21 receptions for 190 yards and two TDs. Kamara, the juco transfer who began his career at Alabama, had 31 catches for 272 yards and three TDs. He also rushed for 645 yards and six TDs with a 6.7 YPC average.

-- Tennessee’s WRs have been a disappointment. Pig Howard was dismissed from the program in early October after leading the team in caches and receiving yards in 2014. Marquez North struggled with injuries and didn’t make much of an impact when he did get on the field (five catches, 46 yards). Josh Malone had 29 catches for a team-high 388 yards and two TDs, while Pearson had a team-best 36 receptions for 377 yards and three TDs.

-- UT won just two games against bowl-bound foes, beating MAC champ Bowling Green 59-30 in Knoxville and also besting Georgia 38-31 at Neyland Stadium.

-- Tennessee went 1-2 ATS in three games as a single-digit ‘chalk’ this year.

-- Northwestern (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) missed the postseason with 5-7 records in both 2013 and 2014, but it doubled that win amount this year. The Wildcats are going bowling for just the 12th time in school history. They are 2-9 in those 11 previous postseason appearances, ending a nine-game losing streak (tied with Notre Dame for worst all-time losing streak in bowl games) with a 34-20 win over Mississippi St. at the Gator Bowl three years ago.

-- Northwestern suffered its only losses at Michigan (38-0) and vs. Iowa (41-10). The Wildcats posted quality wins vs. Stanford (16-6), at Duke (19-10), vs. Penn State (23-21) and at Wisconsin (13-7).

-- Pat Fitzgerald’s team has been an underdog seven times this year, producing a 5-2 record both SU and ATS. The Wildcats beat Stanford and Wisconsin as double-digit ‘dogs. This is their third-richest ‘dog situation of the season.

-- Northwestern has won five in a row since the back-to-back defeats at Michigan and vs. Iowa. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in those five outright wins.

-- Northwestern is seventh in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 16.4 points per game. The Wildcats are 11th in the country in total defense, 13th against the run and 25th versus the pass.

-- Northwestern’s offense is all about sophomore RB Justin Jackson, who eclipsed the 1,000-yard rushing mark for a second straight season. Jackson ran for 1,344 yards and four TDs while averaging 4.5 YPC. He also had 19 receptions for 147 yards.

-- Clayton Thorson had a decent season as the Wildcats’ starting QB. The redshirt freshman was second on the team in rushing with 374 yards and five TDs. Thorson completed only 51.6 percent of his passes for 1,465 yards with a mediocre 7/7 TD-INT ratio.

-- Thorson’s favorite target is senior WR Dan Vitale, who has 33 receptions for 355 yards and four TDs. Christian Jones has 23 catches for 234 yards and a pair of TDs.

-- Northwestern will be without senior cornerback Nick VanHoose, who is dealing with a finger injury. VanHoose recorded 41 tackles, one tackle for loss, 12 passes broken up, three interceptions, including one pick-six, one QB hurry and one forced fumble. His presence will be missed against UT.

-- The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for Northwestern, cashing in each of its last three outings.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for UT (6-6), but it has seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in its last four outings.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ESPN2.

**Florida vs. Michigan**

-- Florida and Michigan are set to collide in Orlando at the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. As of Thursday afternoon, most books had the Wolverines listed as four-point favorites with a total of 39 for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Gators were +160 on the money line (risk $100 to win $160).

-- Florida (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) started the season with six consecutive victories but on the Monday after a 21-3 win at Missouri, redshirt freshman QB Will Grier was suspended for one year for testing positive for a banned substance. Grier had been the catalyst in the 6-0 start that included a thrilling comeback win over Tennessee (28-27) and a blowout home win over previously-undefeated Ole Miss (38-10). Grier, who decided to transfer two weeks ago, had completed 65.6 percent of his passes for 1,202 yards with a 10/3 TD-INT ratio. He also had 116 rushing yards and two TDs.

-- Without Grier, UF took its first loss of the season by a 35-28 count at LSU as a six-point road underdog. Sophomore QB Treon Harris played his best game that night in Baton Rouge, connecting on 17-of-32 passes for 271 yards and two TDs without an interception. Since then, however, Harris has thrown for 165 yards or fewer in five of six games.

-- For the season, Harris has completed only 51.9 percent of his throws for 1,530 yards with a 9/5 TD-INT ratio. Harris does bring scrambling skills to the table and throws a good deep ball. He has 189 rushing yards this year. In Harris’s 14 career starts, UF owns a 9-5 SU record.

-- UF would love to establish the running game with junior Kelvin Taylor, who has rushed for 985 yards and 13 TDs with a 4.0 YPC average. Taylor has already announced that he’s turning pro after this game.

-- Florida will be without two starters, DE Alex McCalister (dismissed), OT Mason Halter (suspended). Also, back-up freshman RB Jordan Scarlett has been suspended. McCalister, who missed the last three games with a foot injury, had 26 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, seven QB hurries, one forced fumble, two fumble recoveries and one pass broken up. Scarlett had 181 rushing yards and one TD with a 5.3 YPC average.

-- UF has been an underdog five times, compiling a 3-2 spread record with a pair of outright wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss.

-- UF won the SEC East and took a 10-1 record into its regular-season finale at home vs. Florida State. The Seminoles led 10-0 at intermission after scoring on a fourth-and-goal play from the one yard line. They would penetrate UF’s fatigued and banged-up defense for a pair of fourth-quarter TD runs from Dalvin Cook en route to a 27-2 win as 2.5-point road favorites.

-- UF’s defense played terrific in the early going against Alabama at the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. The Gators went ahead 7-2 on an 85-yard punt return from Antonio Callaway early in the second quarter. Trailing 7-5 late in the second quarter, the Crimson Tide hit a long pass from Jake Coker to Calvin Ridley, who went up between a pair of defenders and made a sensational catch in traffic. Derrick Henry ran two yards for a TD to put his team in front 12-7 at intermission. Alabama would go on to capture a 29-15 triumph, but the Gators covered the number as 16.5-point underdogs thanks to a 46-yard scoring strike from Harris to C.J. Worton with 5:02 remaining.

-- Callaway has two punt returns for TDs this year and he has 30 receptions for 603 yards and four TDs. DeMarcus Robinson has 46 catches for 503 yards and two TDs, but he’s been in head coach Jim McElwain’s doghouse recently. Therefore, it’s iffy whether or not Robinson will get much playing time. In fact, McElwain told the media he’s turning pro, but Robinson told the media he never told his coach that those were his plans. UF has one of the nation’s best TEs in Jake McGee, who has 41 catches for 381 yards and four TDs.

-- Michigan (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) had its four-game winning streak snapped at home in its regular-season finale against Ohio St. The Buckeyes pounded the Wolverines by a 42-13 count as 1.5-point road ‘chalk.’ In the losing effort, Jake Rudock connected on 19-of-32 throws for 263 yards and one TD without an interception. Jehu Chesson had a team-high eight receptions for 111 yards and one TD.

-- Jim Harbaugh’s squad owns a 2-1 spread record in three games as a single-digit favorite this season.

-- UM lost its season opener 24-17 at Utah, but it answered with five consecutive wins by margins of 21 points or more, including scalps of Northwestern (38-0) and BYU (31-0). However, with a 23-20 lead at home vs. arch-rival Michigan St. and just 10 seconds remaining, Michigan lined up to punt in max protection from around midfield. Then the unthinkable happened when the punter bobbled the snap and then had his punt blocked and returned for a TD with no time left. The Spartans took the 27-23 win as seven-point underdogs.

-- Rudock, the grad transfer from Iowa, became the starting QB and never let loose of the job. He completed 64.0 percent of his passes for 2,739 yards with a 17/9 TD-INT ratio. Rudock, who also has four rushing scores to his credit, has a trio of productive WRs in Amara Darboh, Jake Butt and Chesson. Darboh has 56 receptions for 703 yards and five TDs, while Chesson has 45 catches for 646 yards and a team-high eight TDs. Butt has 48 grabs for 620 yards and three TDs.

-- Michigan’s leading rusher is De’Veon Smith, who rushed for 644 yards and six TDs while averaging 4.2 YPC.

-- Michigan redshirt freshman Jabrill Peppers enjoyed an outstanding season while playing both ways as a safety and at several positions on offense. He produced 568 all-purpose yards and two rushing TDs. Peppers also tallied 45 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss and 10 passes broken up.

-- Michigan faced Florida at the 2007 Capital One Bowl in Orlando the same season Tim Tebow won the Heisman Trophy. Chad Henne made one more play than Tebow, however, as the Wolverines won a 41-35 decision as 11-point underdogs to send Lloyd Carr into retirement as a winner.

-- Michigan is fourth in the nation in total defense and third against the pass. The Wolverines are 11th in scoring defense, allowing merely 17.2 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for Michigan after cashing in seven straight games. This is the second-lowest total the Wolverines have seen. Both of their games with totals in the 30s (37 and 39.5) saw the ‘over’ hit.

-- The ‘under’ is 8-5 overall for UF, 5-1 in its last six games. The Gators have scored just three offensive TDs in their last three games.

-- UF ranks sixth in the nation in total defense, ninth versus the pass and ninth in scoring defense (16.5 PPG).

**Notre Dame vs. Ohio St.**

-- The BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl will pit Notre Dame against Ohio State in Glendale at 1:00 p.m. Eastern on New Year’s Day. As of New Year’s Eve, most betting shops had the Buckeyes listed as six-point favorites with a total of 57. The Fighting Irish were +220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).

-- Ohio State (11-1 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) suffered its lone defeat of the year at home vs. Michigan State on Nov. 21, when the Spartans captured a 17-14 win as 14.5-point road underdogs even though they didn’t have star QB Connor Cook in the lineup due to a shoulder injury. The Buckeyes were limited to 132 yards of total offense vs. MSU.

-- Urban Meyer’s team bounced back the following week by going into the Big House and smashing Michigan 42-13 as a 1.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Ezekiel Elliott ran 30 times for 214 yards and two TDs to lead his team into the win column one week after blasting his coaching staff for a lack of touches in the loss to the Spartans. J.T. Barrett had 139 rushing yards and three TDs on just 19 carries. The sophomore signal caller also connected on 9-of-15 passes for 113 yards and one TD without an interception.

-- Barrett and Cardale Jones were yanked in and out of the lineup for most of the season, but Barrett will get the starting nod against Notre Dame. For the season, Barrett has completed 63.8 percent of his throws for 781 yards with a 10/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has 586 rushing yards and 11 TDs with a 6.4 yards-per-carry average. Meanwhile, Jones has connected on 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,459 yards with an 8/5 TD-INT ratio.

-- Elliott enjoyed another stellar campaign, rushing for 1,672 yards and 19 TDs while averaging 6.4 YPC. Elliott also had 26 receptions for 176 yards.

-- Braxton Miller, the two-time Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year who missed the 2014 season with a shoulder injury, saw Jones and Barrett emerge as talented QBs last year. Therefore, he decided to switch from QB to wide receiver where he was utilized in many different ways. Miller was given 41 carries that he turned into 235 rushing yards and one TD with a 5.7 YPC average. Miller also had 23 receptions for 328 and three TDs. He only attempted one pass, completing it for three yards.

-- Michael Thomas is OSU’s top WR, hauling in a team-high 49 catches for 709 yards and eight TDs. Jalin Marshall finished the regular season with 31 receptions for 448 yards and five TDs.

-- Ohio State was favored by at least 13.5 points in every game all season except for the last one at Michigan. The Buckeyes easily cashed as 1.5-point favorites in Ann Arbor.

-- After failing to cover in six straight games following its spread-covering season-opening win at Va. Tech (42-24 as a 13.5-point ‘chalk’), Ohio St. compiled a 4-2 spread record in its last six contests.

-- Notre Dame (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) has been an underdog three times this year, compiling a 3-0 spread record with one outright win over Ga. Tech (30-22) at home. The Fighting Irish’s two losses came by four combined points at Clemson and at Stanford.

-- Notre Dame went into its regular-season finale at Stanford with a chance to most likely wrap up a berth in the CFP with a win. However, it was not to be as the Cardinal captured a 38-36 win thanks to Conrad Ukropina’s game-winning 45-yard field goal as time expired. Brian Kelly’s team had gone ahead 36-35 with 30 seconds remaining on a two-yard TD run by DeShone Kizer. However, it allowed Stanford to get into field-goal range by committing a costly 15-yard facemask penalty and giving up a 27-yard completion. Kizer was brilliant in the losing effort. The redshirt freshman completed 13-of-25 passes for 234 yards and one TD without an interception. Kizer also rushed 16 times for 128 yards and one TD. True freshman RB Josh Adams ran for 168 yards and one TD on 18 carries. Will Fuller had six receptions for 136 yards and one TD.

-- Notre Dame owns quality wins vs. Navy (41-24), vs. Southern Cal (41-31), at Temple (24-20) and at Pitt (42-30).

-- When Malik Zaire went down with a season-ending injury in Week 2, Kizer became the starting QB. He responded by throwing two TD passes without an interception to spark the Irish to a 34-27 comeback win at Virginia.

-- For the season, Kizer completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 2,596 yards with a 19/9 TD-INT ratio. Kizer rushed for 504 yards and nine TDs.

-- C.J. Prosise led the Irish with 1,029 rushing yards and 11 TDs with a 6.6 YPC average. Prosise missed games vs. Wake Forest and at Stanford due to a high-ankle sprain, and he was limited to only 14 total carries in wins at Pitt and vs. Boston College. Nevertheless, Prosise is healthy now and expected to start against OSU. He also has 26 catches for 308 yards and one TD. Adams has run for 760 yards and five TDs while averaging 7.5 YPC.

-- Fuller has a team-high 56 receptions for 1,145 yards and 13 TDs. Chris Brown has 44 catches for 562 yards and three TDs.

-- Notre Dame lost eight players to suspensions or season-ending injuries in August, September and October. However, two of those eight players are set to return vs. OSU. Junior nose tackle Jarron Jones is set to make his season debut after injuring his knee in August. Jones had 40 tackles, six tackles for losses, 1.5 sacks, seven QB hurries and one pass broken up in 2014. TE Durham Smythe is also poised to return from a knee injury. On the flip side, starting junior safety Max Redfield was suspended on Wednesday for a disciplinary matter. Redfield had 64 tackles, one interception, two tackles for loss, one sack, two passes broken up and one QB hurry during the regular season.

-- Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for Notre Dame.

-- Ohio State ranks second in the nation in scoring defense, giving up only 14.0 points per game. The Buckeyes are 10th in total defense, 11th versus the pass and 22nd against the run.

-- The ‘under’ is 9-3 overall for the Buckeyes, cashing at a 5-1 clip in their last six outings.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Afternoon Bowls

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (10-2) vs. TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (8-4)

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL
Kickoff: Friday, Noon ET
Line: Tennessee -8, Total: 47.5

Both No. 13 Northwestern and No. 23 Tennessee seek a sixth straight win when they meet in the Outback Bowl on New Year's Day.

The Volunteers (8-4 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) haven't lost by more than seven points all season, while both losses for the Wildcats (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) were blowouts (38-0 at Michigan, 40-10 vs. Iowa).

These teams have met just once in school history, with the Volunteers thumping the Wildcats 48-28 in the 1997 Citrus Bowl. Both teams are riding five-game winning streaks, and Northwestern is seeking a school record 11th victory this season.

Neither team has strong trends running in its favor to cover the spread. Tennessee is 42-21 ATS in road games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers since 1992, while Northwestern is 46-27 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the same time period. Both teams are fairly healthy coming into the game.

Northwestern has found success this season despite having one of the least productive offenses in the nation. The team scores only 20.7 PPG (112th in FBS) and generates 333 total YPG this season, and produces a mere 17.2 PPG in non-home games. This is about half of the 34.2 PPG that Tennessee scores on the road.

The Wildcats are led by QB Clayton Thorson, who is 142-of-275 (52%) on the season for 1,465 yards, 7 TD and also seven interceptions. RB Justin Jackson generates the bulk of the team’s offense, running 298 times for 1,344 yards and 4 TD on the ground, along with 19 receptions for 147 yards.

For all they lack on offense, the Wildcats have a tremendous defense, allowing just 16.4 PPG (7th in nation) and 311 total YPG. They’ve been even stingier in their last three games, giving up a scant 11.7 PPG and 294 YPG.

Tennessee possesses a solid offense, racking up 34.3 PPG (29th in FBS) and 423 total YPG, while coughing up just one turnover per game. The Vols’ running game is the centerpiece of the offense, good for 223 rushing YPG on 4.8 YPC.

They key offensive player in this game is Tennessee RB Jalen Hurd, who has 599 total yards during the team’s five-game win streak, and 11 rushing touchdowns on the season.

QB Joshua Dobbs has out-produced his opponent on the season, going 191-of-319 (60%) for 15 touchdowns and just five interceptions. The junior has added 623 rushing yards and 9 TD on the ground for good measure. The Volunteers’ defense has been decent on the season, allowing 21.2 PPG (27th in nation) and 370 total YPG, and has phenomenal in the past three matches, ceding just 12.0 PPG and 278 total YPG.

FLORIDA GATORS (10-3) vs. MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (9-3)

Citrus Bowl
Florida Citrus Bowl - Orlando, FL
Kickoff: Friday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Michigan -4.5, Total: 39.5

No. 14 Michigan hopes to reach the 10-win mark in its first season under head coach Jim Harbaugh when it faces No. 19 Florida, which is struggling on offense, in the New Year's Day Citrus Bowl.

The Gators (10-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) will feel at home in the Sunshine State in a battle with the Wolverines (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) in Orlando. The teams have met just twice all-time, with Michigan taking both of those high-scoring matchups (SU and ATS). The first occurred in the 2003 Outback Bowl (38-30) and most recently was an exciting 41-35 result in the 2008 Capital One Bowl.

The trends to beat the spread for the third meeting run exclusively in Florida’s favor. The team is 41-22 ATS in road games versus good passing teams (with a 58%+ completion pct.) since 1992 and 9-1 ATS in road games off one or more straight Overs during the past three seasons.

The Gators are fairly healthy coming into this game, though OL Alex McCalister (foot) is doubtful to play, and WR Brandon Powell (foot) is listed as questionable.

The Wolverines are monitoring a handful of injuries, most pressingly QB Jake Rudock’s shoulder, which has him listed as probable for the Citrus Bowl. DT Bryan Mone (leg), WR Brian Cole (undisclosed), and RB Derrick Green (undisclosed) are questionable to play, while DB Jabrill Peppers (undisclosed) is probable.

Florida’s offense has been below average this season, scoring 24.5 PPG (98th in nation) and generating 338 total YPG, and has slowed down even more significantly in recent weeks. In their past three games (which includes two losses), the Gators have scored only 12.3 PPG on 231 total YPG.

QB Treon Harris has led the offensive unit after the suspension of QB Will Grier, completing only 111-of-214 throws (51.9%) for 1,530 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions. RB Kelvin Taylor has been the team’s top scorer on the season, running 248 times for 985 yards and finding the end zone on 13 occasions.

The Gators’ success on the season is largely attributable to their stout defense, which allows just 16.5 PPG (8th in FBS) and 295 total YPG. The squad’s stats on the defensive side of the ball have taken a hit in recent weeks as well, as it has surrendered 23.3 PPG and 347 total YPG to its past three opponents. But there are plenty of playmakers on this unit, as evidenced by 25 takeaways this season.

Michigan’s offense has been solid this year, putting 30.6 PPG (50th in nation) on the board and tallying a respectable 387 total YPG, while controlling the ball an average of 33:02 per game. Unlike their Citrus Bowl opponent, the Wolverines have hit their stride towards the end of the season, scoring 34.5 PPG in the past four contests.

QB Jake Rudock is the offensive heart of the team, completing 229-of-358 throws (64.0%) for 2,739 yards, 17 TD and nine interceptions, while adding four rushing touchdowns to the mix. The team expects that he’ll be nearly 100% healed from his shoulder injury by New Year’s Day, which is good news, as backup QB Wilton Speight struggled in the team’s loss to Ohio State, connecting on just 6-of-14 passes (42.9%) and throwing a pick while failing to find the end zone.

The Michigan defense is nearly as formidable as Florida’s on the season, ceding opponents 17.2 PPG (12th in FBS) and 281 total YPG, though they have similar struggled as of late – giving up 33.0 PPG and 405 total YPG in its past three games while managing just one turnover over that span. The turnovers aren't much of a surprise, considering the Wolverines have tallied only 10 takeaways all season, with just three forced turnovers during the past seven games combined.

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (10-2) vs. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (11-1)

Fiesta Bowl
University of Phoenix Stadium - Glendale, AZ
Kickoff: Friday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Ohio State -6.5, Total: 57.5

Two storied programs meet for the first time in 10 years when No. 8 Notre Dame takes on No. 7 Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Day.

The Fighting Irish (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) will take on the Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) in Phoenix, which will mark the teams’ first meeting in a decade. The last matchup of these schools occurred in the 2006 Fiesta Bowl, which Ohio State won 34-20, making the team 3-0 (SU and ATS) versus Notre Dame since 1995.

The trends to beat the spread run almost entirely in the Buckeyes' favor. The team is 24-8 ATS versus excellent rushing teams (5.25+ YPC) since 1992, and 48-27 ATS after winning five or six of its previous seven games over the same time period. Bettors looking to side with the Irish can take notice that Ohio State is just 3-11 ATS when coming off road games over the past three seasons.

Notre Dame will be dealing with a handful of injuries going into the game, most notably top RB C.J. Prosise (1,032 rush yds, 11 TD), who is questionable to play with a lingering ankle sprain. CB KeiVarae Russell (tibia) is expected to miss the game, while DL Jarron Jones (knee) and TE Durham Smythe (knee) are both questionable to play. LB James Onwuali (knee) is listed as probable.

The Buckeyes are largely healthy, but may be a bit thin on their defensive line with DL Adolphus Washington (suspension) expected to miss the game and DL Tommy Schutt (foot) questionable to play.

Notre Dame’s offense has been solid on the season, averaging 34.7 PPG (27th in nation) and 472 total YPG, though the scoring drops to 29.5 PPG away from home. Production on the ground has been a strength of the Fighting Irish, who average 5.8 yards per carry, while QB DeShone Kizer connects on 63.3% of his passes for 8.7 yards per attempt, 19 TD and 9 INT on the season.

Notre Dame hopes to have RB C.J. Prosise (1,032 rush yds, 6.6 YPC, 11 TD) back on the field for the game, but even if he does carry the football, the team may not find many holes against an Ohio State squad that has outrushed opponents by a ridiculous 313 YPG to 97 YPG margin on the road this year.

The Fighting Irish defense has been decent, limiting opponents to 22.4 PPG (35th in FBS) and 362 total YPG, though they average just 1.1 turnovers per game. The unit hasn’t played nearly as well on the road, ceding 25.8 PPG and managing only 0.8 turnovers per game.

Ohio State is well-matched with its opponent on offense, putting up 35.0 PPG (25th in nation) and 429 total YPG. The team has excelled away from home this season, upping its offensive production to 39.0 PPG and a whopping 508 total YPG.

Led by RB Ezekiel Elliott (1,672 rush yds, 6.4 YPC, 19 TD), the Buckeyes rack up 313 rushing YPG on an eye-popping 7.0 yards per run. Elliott has topped 100 rushing yards in each of the team’s 11 wins on the season, and he was a monster in national semifinals and finals last year when he rushed for 476 yards (8.5 YPC) and six touchdowns in those two wins.

Sophomore QB J.T. Barrett, who secured the starting job midway through the season, has connected on 74-of-116 throws (64%) for 781 yards, 10 TD and 3 INT, while adding 586 yards and 11 TD on the ground.

The Buckeyes’ defense has been elite this year, holding opponents to a paltry 14.0 PPG (2nd in FBS) and 304 total YPG (4.4 yards per play). Since allowing 28 points to Maryland on Oct. 10, the team has limited the past six opponents to a mere 10.7 PPG.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Bowl Tip Sheet
By Joe Nelson

While two of the biggest traditional bowls are not involved in the college football playoff matchups this season, both the Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl have great matchups to fill out the last two slots on the New Year’s Day Bowl schedule with prominent major conference teams facing off. Here is a look at the teams and matchups to close out New Year’s Day.

Rose Bowl
Match-up: Iowa Hawkeyes at Stanford Cardinal
Venue: Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California
Time/TV: Friday, January 1, 2016
Line: Stanford -6, Over/Under 53½
Last Meeting: First Meeting

Going to the Rose Bowl shouldn’t ever get old, but this is the third trip to Pasadena on New Year’s Day in the past four years for Stanford. Stanford won against Wisconsin on New Year’s Day in 2013 but lost vs. Michigan State on New Year’s Day 2014 in two tight games. This will be the first ever meeting between Iowa and Stanford on the football field and for Iowa the first Rose Bowl trip in 25 years.

The Big Ten already spoiled Stanford’s season in a way as the Cardinal lost on the opening Saturday of the season at Northwestern, falling 16-6 as a 10-point road favorite to start the season. Stanford wound up 11-2 on the season with a Pac-12 championship, but had they not lost that opening game, they likely would have ended up in the college football playoff with Stanford finishing #6 in the final rankings, just behind Iowa at #5.

Stanford has a very strong collection of wins this season having defeated Notre Dame, UCLA, Washington, Washington State, California, and USC twice, but the Cardinal also slipped late in the season losing to Oregon 38-36. The wins over Washington State and Notre Dame came by the slimmest of margins while being soundly out-gained as the Cardinal resume ultimately didn’t stack up quite as well by season’s end with teams like USC and UCLA fading late in the year.

Since the low output performance against Northwestern, Stanford has scored at least 30 points in every game as a program more associated with defensive excellence in recent seasons was far better on offense this season. This will be the final game of a checkered, but successful career for quarterback Kevin Hogan who had his best statistical season but also had some uneven performances. Leading the way for Stanford this season was sophomore all-purpose producer Christian McCaffrey who wound up in New York as a Heisman finalist after combining for nearly 2,400 rushing and receiving yards.

Stanford finished the season ranked 50th nationally in total defense with the team allowing the most yards and points per game of the five years under David Shaw. Eight of the team’s last 11 foes scored at least 22 points, a figure that would have been enough to win four of the last five Rose Bowls. Iowa averaged over 32 points per game this season while allowing just over 18 points per game with a 12-0 start only spoiled in the final seconds of the Big Ten championship game. Iowa ranked 20th in the nation in total defense with excellent numbers against the run, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush, a full yard superior to Stanford’s run defense.

Iowa faced a schedule that deserves some scrutiny with a narrow three-point home win over Pittsburgh being the only win of substance in non-conference play as the team narrowly escaped an upset vs. rival Iowa State in September as well. Big Ten play started with one of the biggest games in the Big Ten West with the Hawkeyes winning at Wisconsin, 10-6. Iowa was out-gained by 99 yards in that game and was handed four turnovers. Iowa did crush Northwestern, but they had close calls against several average teams in conference play to finish undefeated, winning one-score games with Indiana, Minnesota, and Nebraska while frequently failing to impress in the box score. Michigan State had a big yardage edge in the Big Ten championship, but it was Iowa that committed the turnovers and key mistakes that the veteran squad rarely had in the regular season.

Despite the game being in Stanford’s home state, Iowa figures to have a huge edge in crowd support. One can surmise that Iowa was left ahead of Ohio State in the final college football playoff rankings with the enthusiasm for the traveling fan base being a big factor even though it is not easy to make a case for the Hawkeyes being ahead of the Buckeyes on the final ballot and certainly Ohio State would have been a healthy favorite had the teams faced off.

Stanford should be motivated to prove what many believe, that they were the best team left out of the playoff bracket and the early bowl returns for the Pac-12 have given credence to what many believe, that the league was the deepest in the country despite no team able to fulfill a very difficult task of going 10-0 in league games to remain a viable national playoff candidate in the current format.

The spread briefly opened at Stanford -7 before slipping to -6½ and eventually -6. The total has steadily climbed upward from an opening number of 49½. Under David Shaw, Stanford is 53-14 S/U and 42-25 ATS for an impressive five-year run. The Cardinal is 2-2 S/U and 2-1-1 ATS in bowl games with three of those four games being major bowl games. Stanford is just 12-13 ATS under Shaw as a single-digit favorite as most of the impressive spread track record has come as either an underdog or a heavy favorite.

Despite being a surprise national contender and a team that was doubted all season, Iowa was only 7-5-1 ATS on the year and with the soft schedule they were only dogged twice with this Rose Bowl line set to be the biggest underdog spread for the Hawkeyes all season. Iowa covered in all five road games this season and under Kirk Ferentz, who is now one of the longest tenured head coaches in college football, they are 126-86-1 S/U with a 112-91-6 ATS record. That record includes a 48-33-4 ATS record as an underdog with Iowa 6-6 S/U and 8-4 ATS in bowl games under Ferentz, playing as an underdog in all but one of those bowl games.

Sugar Bowl
Match-up: Mississippi Rebels vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Venue: Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana
Time/TV: Friday, January 1, 2016, 8:30 PM ET
Line: Mississippi -7½ Over/Under 68½
Last Meeting: 2010 Cotton Bowl, Mississippi (-3½) 21, Oklahoma State 7

This will actually be the third recent bowl meeting between these teams with Cotton Bowl wins for Mississippi after the 2003 and 2009 seasons. Mike Gundy was coaching Oklahoma State for the most recent meeting and it was a rare bowl loss for the Cowboys who have won four of the last five bowl games under Gundy who is 6-3 S/U and 5-4 ATS in bowl games.

With a win in this bowl game, Ole Miss can improve in record in a fourth straight season under Hugh Freeze who took over a 2-10 squad to go 7-6 in 2012, 8-5 in 2013, and 9-4 in 2014. Last season’s team also could have hit the 10-win mark but the Rebels were destroyed in the Peach Bowl with a 42-3 result vs. TCU. Going 9-3 through a difficult SEC West schedule is commendable, but for the second straight season, Ole Miss climbed to #3 in the polls with a big win over Alabama only to falter against lesser competition later in the season.

The Rebels took losses to Florida, Memphis, and Arkansas and while the late season loss at home vs. the Razorbacks was an overtime affair that featured one of the more incredible plays of the season with a 4th-and-25 lateral play converted for Arkansas, the losses to Florida and Memphis came by double-digits. This was an inconsistent team and the overall numbers are a bit inflated due to opening the season with 76-3 and 73-21 victories.

The marquee win over Alabama featured five turnovers for the Tide as Ole Miss held off a furious comeback attempt in a 43-37 win. The acclaimed defense filled with top end talent also allowed over 400 yards in each of the final four games of the season. NFL prospect Robert Nkemdiche has already been suspended for this game and depth on the defensive line could be an issue for the team going up against a fast-paced Cowboys attack.

On offense, junior quarterback Chad Kelly will come close to 4,000 passing yards for the season, but he had four games with multiple interceptions this season and he is a risk to take sacks trying to extend plays. Highly regarded wide receiver Laquon Treadwell had 76 receptions for nearly 1,100 yards, but only once did he had multiple touchdowns and the committee approach in the backfield led to some inconsistent performances as Jaylen Walton led the team in rushing but with just 690 yards and only one 100 yard game.

After a 10-0 start, Oklahoma State wound up losing the final two games of the season, but it is the fourth time in six seasons the program has reached a double-digit win count. The Cowboys have had late season slips before as a 10-0 squad in position to be in the BCS title game lost at Iowa State in the 2011 season as a nearly four-touchdown favorite and the 2013 team was 10-1 before losing the finale with Oklahoma.

A schedule that put TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma all visiting Stillwater had many pegging the Cowboys as a national sleeper this season, but in the first half of the season it didn’t look like a team capable of that kind of run. Oklahoma State struggled to slip by Central Michigan in the opening week and was very fortunate in a 3-0 Big XII start with narrow wins over Texas, Kansas State, and West Virginia. At 7-0, the Cowboys looked in trouble falling way behind at Texas Tech, but the team rallied to win and then with the help of turnovers upended undefeated TCU the next week.

Oklahoma State couldn’t keep up with Baylor allowing 700 yards to lose by 10 even with Baylor down to a back-up quarterback and in the Bedlam finale with the Sooners the Cowboys played most of the game without their own quarterback as Mason Rudolph was battling an ankle injury and only played sparingly before being ruled out. Rudolph sparked the late season rally last season as Oklahoma State upset Oklahoma to become bowl eligible and then won in bowl action vs. Washington. The sophomore had a strong statistical season though he did have eight interceptions in nine Big XII games. The Cowboys are an up-tempo offense that spreads the ball around as no receiver had more than 53 catches and the running game was often sparked by their other quarterback, senior J.W. Walsh who routinely took snaps for a change of pace.

The pace of play wore on the Oklahoma State defense which allowed 430 yards per game on 5.5 yards per play with the biggest difference compared with Ole Miss being much less success against the run and far more yards per completions allowed, but the Big XII schedule compared with the SEC schedule plays a role in those figures.

Under Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State is 93-46 with a 73-59-3 ATS record, but the team owns a track record as being a bit of a frontrunner, piling on points in lopsided wins but not winning in the biggest games. Oklahoma State is just 20-28 ATS as an underdog under Gundy but 23-11-1 ATS as a double-digit home favorite. Oklahoma State did win the Fiesta Bowl in an overtime thriller vs. Stanford after the 2011 season, but they came up short vs. the SEC in the Cotton Bowl two years ago losing to SEC East champion Missouri. In the last six games the team has played as an underdog, Oklahoma State has four outright wins going back to last season as the recent success as an underdog has been there.

While there have been some late season distractions for Ole Miss this will be the first Sugar Bowl appearance since 1969. The team has played in the Cotton Bowl in a few recent seasons and last season’s Peach Bowl appearance was technically a major bowl game, but there is some enthusiasm to be in this game with the program having several historic Sugar Bowl wins in its history and a reasonable five-hour drive south for fans to make the trip. Under Freeze, Mississippi is 33-18 S/U and ATS and after the embarrassing bowl showing last year a better performance should be expected. The spread on this game appears to be hitting -7½ at some outlets after mostly sitting at -7 since being released at -6½. The total has climbed from 66 to 68½ before holding at 68.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Evening Bowls

IOWA HAWKEYES (12-1) vs. STANFORD CARDINAL (11-2)

Rose Bowl
Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA
Kickoff: Friday, 5:00 p.m. ET
Line: Stanford -6, Total: 53

No. 5 Iowa will try to add to its school-record 12 victories when it faces Pac-12 champion No. 6 Stanford in Pasadena on New Year's Day.

The Hawkeyes (12-1 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) and Cardinal (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS) will meet for the first time ever. Iowa hasn't won a bowl game since 2010 and hasn’t been a Rose Bowl victor since 1958. Stanford is appearing in its 14th Rose Bowl in school history, tallying an even 6-6-1 SU record in its previous trips to Pasadena.

Both teams have trends running in their favor to cover the spread in this matchup, as the Hawkeyes are 40-17 ATS versus good rushing teams (200+ rushing YPG) since 1992, and 17-4 ATS against incredible offensive teams (37+ PPG) over the same time period. Meanwhile, the Cardinal are 38-15 ATS after a game where they committed no turnovers since 1992, and 6-0 ATS coming off one or more straight Overs this season.

Iowa is closely watching an ankle injury suffered by RB Jordan Canzeri last game, which has him listed as questionable. The team is otherwise healthy, as is Stanford, which lists only DB Ronnie Harris (ankle) as probable to play.

Iowa’s offense has performed well on the season, averaging 32.1 PPG (47th in nation) and gaining 394 total YPG. QB C.J. Beathard has led the team’s offensive efforts, connecting on 202-of-329 passes (61.4%) for 2,570 yards, 15 TD and 4 INT. However, the Hawkeyes’ ground game has been responsible for the majority of their points this season.

The team’s leading rusher, RB Jordan Canzeri (178 carries, 976 yds, 12 TD), was sorely missed in the school’s last game against Michigan State – the team managed just 40 rushing yards after he left the game with an ankle injury, and failed to find the end zone in his absence. If Canzeri is unable to play on New Year’s Day, Iowa will be looking to backup RBs Leshun Daniels Jr. (135 carries, 609 yds, 8 TD) and Akrum Wadley (74 carries, 463 yds, 7 TD) to pick up the slack.

Iowa’s defense has been solid this season, giving up just 18.5 PPG (18th in FBS) and 334 total YPG. The squad has performed even better on the road, allowing 16.0 PPG in the past three weeks and generating 2.3 turnovers per game in that period.

Stanford’s offense has scored at least 30 points in all but the first game of the season, and currently average 37.2 PPG (17th in nation) and 436 total YPG of total offense. QB Kevin Hogan helms the offensive squad, completing 194-of-283 throws (68.6%) for 2,644 yards, 24 TD and seven interceptions. Hogan has added another five touchdowns on the ground as well as a receiving touchdown.

RB Christian McCaffrey, the Heisman runner-up and NCAA leader in generating yards from scrimmage this season, will test the opponent’s run defense coming off a victory against USC in which he ran for 207 yards and a touchdown, tallied 105 receiving yards and a score, and threw an 11-yard TD pass for good measure.

The Cardinal defense limits opponents to 23.1 PPG (40th in FBS) and 375 total YPG, but has shown signs of weakness in recent weeks in giving up 26.7 PPG and 462 total YPG in their last three games. Stanford has produced only 12 turnovers in its 13 games, including four straight contests with less than two takeaways.

OLE MISS REBELS (9-3) vs. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (10-2)

Sugar Bowl
Superdome - New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Ole Miss -7, Total: 68.5

No. 16 Oklahoma State makes its 10th straight bowl appearance against No. 12 Ole Miss, which is seeking a school-record-tying 10th win, when the two collide in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day.

Since 1992, the Rebels (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) are 2-0 and 1-0-1 ATS playing the Cowboys (10-2 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) in bowl games, with their most recent win coming in a 21-7 victory in the 2010 Cotton Bowl.

Ole Miss enters the postseason with two straight double-digit wins as an underdog over LSU and at Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State began the year 10-0 SU, but suffered a pair of lopsided losses to both Baylor (45-35) and Oklahoma (58-23) at home to cap the regular season.

Both schools have positive trends running in their favor to cover the spread in this game. The Rebels are 33-15 ATS in games played on turf since 1992, and are 9-1 ATS when the total score is greater than or equal to 63 points under head coach Hugh Freeze. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 16-4 ATS after two straight games with 40+ pass attempts since 1992 and 16-4 ATS after allowing 17+ points in the first half in two straight games over the same time period.

Both teams will be dealing with a handful of injuries in this matchup. Rebels star DE Robert Nkemdiche has been suspended for the game, while both DE Fadol Brown (foot) and S Tony Conner (knee) are expected to miss the Sugar Bowl as well.

The Cowboys will be closely watching QB Mason Rudolph (foot), who was injured in his last game and is listed as questionable to play. FB Jeremy Seaton (lung) and TE Blake Jarwin (ribs) have been upgraded to probable.

The Ole Miss offense is potent and quick, averaging 40.2 PPG (13th in nation) and 515 total YPG, all while spending just 26:24 per game on the field. QB Chad Kelly is the team’s offensive leader, completing 277-for-425 passes (65.2%) for 3,740 yards, 27 TD and 12 INT. Kelly has added 96 runs for 436 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. A big part of the team's success through the air is courtesy of WR Laquon Treadwell, who has caught 76 passes for 1,082 yards and eight touchdowns.

RB Jaylen Walton (690 rush yds) is the Rebels’ leading rusher, contributing 5.1 yards per carry, though he’s scored only half as many rushing touchdowns as his quarterback.

The Rebels’ defense was respectable most of the season (22.8 PPG, 38th in FBS), but has been porous in the past three games where the unit has given up 32.3 PPG and 505 total YPG. This is more than 100 YPG higher than their season average of 388 YPG allowed.

The explosive Oklahoma State offense scores 41.2 PPG (8th in nation) and generates 489 total YPG for the season. QB Mason Rudolph has completed 246-of-393 passes (62.6%) for 3,591 yards (9.1 YPA), 21 TD and 9 INT. If Rudolph is unable to play due to injury, he will be spelled by QB J.W. Walsh, who completed 25-for-42 throws (59.5%) for 325 yards, 2 TD and an interception in his team’s loss to cross-state rival Oklahoma to finish the regular season. Despite playing a fraction of Rudolph’s overall snaps, Walsh has already thrown for 13 TD on the season to just 1 INT, while adding 11 touchdowns on the ground.

Sophomore WR James Washington is the leading receiver for the Cowboys, catching 52 passes for 1,077 yards (an astounding 20.7 yards per catch) and finding the end zone 10 times. He will continue to be used frequently, as the Cowboys have a weak rushing attack that gains only 132 rushing YPG on 3.7 YPC.

Like its bowl opponent, the Oklahoma State defense (29.0 PPG, 86th in FBS) is susceptible to dynamic offenses. In their past three games, the Cowboys have yielded 44.7 PPG and 545 total YPG. But this unit has forced 27 turnovers this season, which is a number five greater than what the Ole Miss defense has generated.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

New Year’s Day Bowl Trends

New Year's Day is historically one of the biggest days on the college football schedule. This year offers a loaded 5-game bowl card and Covers Expert Marc Lawrence breaks down what's trending for each game and every team involved.

Bowling For Dollars

Here is a look at the most recent trends that have occurred inside each of the five major bowl games on tap New Year’s Day…

Outback Bowl: favorites in this bowl are 1-5 ATS the last six years… Big Ten teams are 6-1 ATS, SEC teams are 3-8 ATS

Citrus Bowl: favorites are 4-0 ATS in this bowl the last five years (one ‘pick’ game)… Big Ten teams are 0-4 ATS, SEC teams are 4-1 ATS

Fiesta Bowl: favorites are 1-3 ATS in this bowl… Ohio State is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in this bowl since 2003

Rose Bowl: favorites have cashed 3 of the last 4 Rose Bowls, while the favorite is 6-2 ATS in last eight Big Ten-Pac-12 Rose Bowls

Sugar Bowl: the favorite is 0-3-1 ATS the last four Sugar Bowls, but the last 3 SEC favorites have all lost SU in this bowl

Conference Call: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Good numbers: Big Ten teams off a double-digit win (Northwestern) are 14-5 ATS… SEC dogs off a loss (Florida) are 13-4 ATS vs. opponents off a loss.

Bad Numbers: Big Ten favorites off a double-digit loss (Michigan) are 2-8 ATS… Big 12 teams (Oklahoma State) are 11-25 SUATS vs. SEC opponents.

Ugly numbers: SEC favorites of more than 4 points (Ole Miss and Tennessee) are 2-9 ATS after scoring 35 or more points in their last game.

Coach Me Up

Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz is 7-3 ATS as a bowl dog.

Florida’s Jim McElwain is 5-1-2 ATS off a loss vs. an opponent off a loss.

Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS off a double-digit loss vs. an opponent off a loss.

Mississippi’s Hugh Freeze is 12-1 ATS as a favorite in non-conference games.

Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald is 9-2 ATS as a dog in non-conference games, including 5-0 SUATS the last five.

Notre Dame’s Brian Kelly is 14-5 ATS as a dog off a loss.

Ohio State’s Urban Meyer is 8-2 SUATS in bowl games.

Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS vs. non-conference opponents off a SUATS win.

Stanford’s David Shaw is 20-2 SU and 16-6 ATS vs. an opponent off a loss.

Tennessee’s Butch Jones is 8-2 SUATS with rest off a win.


Crash And Burn

New Year’s Day bowl teams off high scoring efforts in their previous game tend to come back to earth in a hurry.

That’s confirmed by a 47-65 ATS overall mark for teams who put up 35 or more points in their previous game.

The best role in fading these teams is when they take the field with soft defenses, those allowing 23 or more PPG on the season, where they dip to 5-18 SU and 7-16 ATS - including 0-6 SUATS the last three years.

Fire extinguishers are ready and standing by for the Stanford Cardinal.


New Resolution

New Year’s Day favorites with new coaches (not interims) are 17-31-2 ATS.

Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh will be put to the task in the Citrus Bowl following the loss of defensive coordinator D. J. Durkin (new Maryland head coach). He resolved the defection by promoting 66-year old defensive line coach Greg Mattison as his new DC.


Stat Of The Day

Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze is 23-1 SU and 18-3-1 ATS in games vs. an opponent off a loss.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: College football New Year's Day bowl games

Outback Bowl

(12) Northwestern Wildcats vs. Tennessee Volunteers (-8, 48)

Game played at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

1. Tennessee and Northwestern look to end breakout seasons on a high note when they meet in the Outback Bowl on Jan. 1 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Tennessee won its last five to reach eight victories for the first time since posting 10 with a win at the Outback Bowl in 2007. The Wildcats finished the regular season with five consecutive victories and go for a school-record 11th in Tampa where they lost 38-35 in overtime Jan. 1, 2010 at the Outback Bowl.

2. Both teams depend on their rushing attacks with multi-purpose quarterbacks and 1,000-yard sophomore running backs leading the way. Northwestern’s freshman signal caller Clayton Thorson has thrown for seven touchdowns and rushed for another five while Justin Jackson was fourth in the Big Ten in all-purpose yards with 1,491 – 1,344 on the ground with four scores. Jalen Hurd was fourth in the SEC with 1,158 yards rushing to go along with 11 scores for the Volunteers and quarterback Joshua Dobbs accounted for 24 touchdowns – 15 passing and nine rushing.

3. Special teams could become a major factor as Tennessee boasts six return touchdowns this season – three on punts and three on kickoffs. Evan Berry took three kickoffs back for scores and averaged a national-best 38.3 yards per return while Cameron Sutton (18.7 yards per return, leading the country) scored twice and Alvin Kamara once returning punts for the Volunteers. Tennessee led the nation in kick returns while ranking second behind Texas A&M on punts and Northwestern is 56th and fourth (2.13), respectively, defending them.

TV: Noon ET, ESPN2.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Vols as 9-point faves, but that has moved to -8. The total is up to 48 from the opening 45.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 70s under partly cloudy skies.

ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 4-8 O/U): The Wildcats’ defense allowed an average of 14 points the last four games, led by sophomore linebacker Anthony Walker and senior defensive lineman Deonte Gibson. Walker, who was named to the Big Ten first team, has 113 tackles – 19.5 for loss – this season and Gibson boasts nine sacks, but All-Big Ten second team cornerback Nick VanHoose (three interceptions) is not expected to play due to a finger injury. Thorson has been intercepted seven times and completed only 51.6 percent of his passes with fullback Dan Vitale (33 catches, 355 yards) as his top target.

ABOUT TENNESSEE (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS, 6-6 O/U): Dobbs has raised his production as a junior with 2,125 yards through the air, a near 60 percent completion rate and just five interceptions. Dobbs, who was picked off 12 times in his first two seasons while throwing fewer passes combined than he did during the 2015 campaign, has found seven different players for at least two scoring strikes, five of whom have 270 receiving yards or more. Josh Malone has 29 receptions for 388 yards to lead the way and Kamara is a key versatile performer for the Volunteers, scoring 10 times and accumulating 1,016 all-purpose yards.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 16-5 in Wildcats last 21 non-conference games.
* Over is 5-0 in Volunteers last five neutral site games.


BATTLEFROG FIESTA BOWL

(9) Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5, 57.5)

Game played at University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

BATTLEFROG FIESTA BOWL STORYLINES

1. No. 7 Ohio State and No. 8 Notre Dame were each only a few plays away from clinching a spot in the College Football Playoff but instead will have to be content with a New Year’s Six Bowl when they square off in the BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 1. The defending-champion Buckeyes were in the top four until a 17-14 home loss to Michigan State in the penultimate game of the regular season knocked them out of a spot in the Big Ten title game. The Fighting Irish spent a week in the top four as well but dropped after closing the campaign with a 38-36 setback at Stanford.

2. Notre Dame’s explosive offense averaged 34.8 points – 31st in the nation – despite making a change at quarterback and losing top rusher C.J. Prosise down the stretch. Prosise (ankle) could be back for the bowl game but will be going against an Ohio State defense that finished second in the nation while allowing opponents an average of 14 points. Buckeyes co-defensive coordinator Chris Ash is set to leave to take the head coaching job at Rutgers after the bowl game, but former NFL and college head coach Greg Schiano was brought in to ease the transition and will serve as the co-defensive coordinator moving forward.

3. The Fighting Irish and the Buckeyes both switched quarterbacks during the season, though Notre Dame’s change was injury related. Malik Zaire went down in the second game of the season at Virginia and sophomore DeShone Kizer stepped in to throw for 2,600 yards and 19 touchdowns while adding nine scores on the ground. Ohio State went back and forth between Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett before settling on Barrett, who will get the starting nod in the Fiesta Bowl.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Ohio State as a 6.5-point fave, but is now -6. The total is up to 57.5 from the opening 54.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 6-6 O/U): The Fighting Irish suffered their two losses by a total of four points on the road at No. 1 Clemson and No. 6 Stanford. “Our scout teams have done a great job all year,” Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly told reporters. “We're going to lean on them again one more time to provide us with the kind of look necessary to prepare our defense. But no, we know the challenge that Ohio State brings, and we're going to have to do a great job of preparing our defense.” That defense allowed an average of 22.4 points in the regular season and was at its best against the pass, limiting opponents to 195.9 yards through the air.

ABOUT OHIO STATE (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS, 3-9 O/U): Buckeyes running back Ezekiel Elliott ran for 1,672 yards and 19 touchdowns but was critical of his usage after logging just 33 yards on 12 carries in the lone loss to Michigan State. Elliott bounced back with 214 yards and two scores the following week and figures to be a big part of the offense in the bowl game. Elliott is one of several Ohio State stars, including Jones and presumptive top-5 pick defensive lineman Joey Bosa, who could be headed for the NFL draft in the spring.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten.
* Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last five neutral site games.
* Under is 5-1 in Buckeyes last six games overall.



Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl

(17) Michigan Wolverines vs. (18) Florida Gators (+4, 38.5)

Game played at Orlando Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida

BUFFALO WILD WINGS CITRUS BOWL

1. Florida coach Jim McElwain and Michigan counterpart Jim Harbaugh resurrected dormant programs in their first year on the sidelines and look to cap off encouraging campaigns with a victory when the Gators and Wolverines meet in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Fla., on Jan. 1. McElwain led Florida to the SEC Eastern Division title before losing 29-15 to College Football Playoff participant Alabama in the SEC championship game, while Harbaugh had Michigan in contention for the Big Ten East Division crown heading into the final week of the regular season. Defense has been the catalyst for the dramatic turnaround for both teams as the Gators rank eighth nationally in scoring defense (16.4 points per game) while the Wolverines are fourth in total defense (281.3 yards).

2. Florida's offense has sputtered without suspended quarterback Will Grier as the Gators were held to 17 points in their last two games, and couldn't manage an offensive score in the 27-2 setback to Florida State on Nov. 28. Michigan's Jake Rudock suffered a shoulder injury in the 42-13 loss to Ohio State, and it was initially feared that he would miss the bowl game, but the senior quarterback will make his final collegiate start on New Year's Day. Rudock struggled with the command of a new offense after transfering from Iowa before ending the season on a tear by throwing for 1,296 yards and 11 touchdowns in his last four games.

3. The Wolverines and Gators have meet twice previously in the postseason with Michigan emerging 38-30 victors in the 2003 Outback Bowl before downing Florida 41-35 in Lloyd Carr's final game as coach in the 2008 Capital One Bowl. The Gators last met a Big Ten team in 2012 when they beat Ohio State in the Gator Bowl and McElwain, who is one of six finalists for the Dodd Trophy - awarded to the top coach in the country - is keen to lead Florida to its third straight win over a Big Ten opponent. "We're here to win a ballgame," McElwain told reporters. "We aren't here just to go on rides."

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: The Gators opened as 4-point dogs. The total is down to 38.5 from the opening 41.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high-70s with a 27 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at around 4 mph.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS, 7-5 O/U): Jake Butt and Jourdan Lewis announced they will return for the senior seasons after the junior tight end caught 48 passes for 620 yards and three touchdowns, while the junior cornerback was ranked third nationally with 19 pass breakups. Safety Jabrill Peppers (two rushing touchdowns, eight receptions), who won the Big Ten Freshman of the Year award after making an impact as a three-way player, could miss the bowl game after suffering a suspected hand injury. "He's working through something," Harbaugh told reporters. "We'll see."

ABOUT FLORIDA (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS, 5-8 O/U): Starting quarterback Treon Harris has struggled to move the ball through the air and has failed to throw for 200 yards in each of his last three games. Vernon Hargreaves III, who is the Gators' first unanimous All-America pick since 2009, will likely play his last game as the junior cornerback is considered a surefire first-round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Defensive end Alex McCalister has been sidelined with a foot injury since Nov. 15 and will likely miss the game while wide receiver Brandon Powell is questionable because of a foot problem.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Over is 7-0 in Wolverines last seven games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Gators last six games overall.



ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL

(6) Stanford Cardinal vs. (7) Iowa Hawkeyes (+6, 53)

Game played at Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL STORYLINES

1. Two teams that barely missed out on a spot in the College Football Playoff meet Jan. 1 as Iowa takes on Stanford in the Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual in Pasadena, Calif. “If the Rose Bowl is the consolation prize, what a deal for both of us,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz told reporters. The Hawkeyes suffered their first loss with a 16-13 defeat to Michigan State in the Big Ten championship game, while Stanford earned its third Rose Bowl berth in the last four years with a 41-22 win over USC in the Pac-12 title game.

2. Iowa began the season unranked after finishing 7-6 a year ago but improved every week to earn its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1991. The Big Ten West Division champions rely heavily on their run defense, which ranks 10th in the nation at fewer than 115 yards per game. The impressive unit will be tested by a powerful Stanford offensive attack led by sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy race after breaking Barry Sanders' single-season all-purpose yards record with 3,496.

3. Stanford struggled in its only other meeting against a Big Ten opponent this season as the Cardinal scored their fewest points since 2007 and lost their opener 16-6 at Northwestern. Following that low point, however, coach David Shaw’s squad strung together eight straight wins before losing 38-36 to Oregon on Nov. 14. In addition to McCaffrey, the Cardinal boast a steady hand at quarterback in senior Kevin Hogan, who has thrown for 2,644 yards and 24 touchdowns against seven interceptions while completing 68.6 percent of his passes.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Iowa as a 6.5-point dog but is now +6. The total is at the opening number of 53.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low-60s under clear skies. Wind will blow toward the north end zone at around 6 mph.

ABOUT STANFORD (11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS, 7-6 O/U): The Hawkeyes can expect a heavy dose of McCaffrey, who rushed for 1,847 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 540 receiving yards and four more scores through the air. “He’s the best player in the nation," coach David Shaw told reporters after McCaffrey recorded 461 yards in total offense in the Pac-12 title game. “I don't know if that's even a question. There's nobody in the nation doing what he's been doing. It's not even a debate.” Linebacker Blake Martinez averages a Pac-12-high 10.2 tackles per game to lead the defense, which benefits from a Stanford offense that leads the nation in time of possession.

ABOUT IOWA (12-1 SU, 7-5-1 ATS, 7-5-1 O/U): For the Hawkeyes to win their school-record 13th game and their first Rose Bowl since beating Cal in 1959, they’ll need another solid outing from quarterback C.J. Beathard, who threw 15 touchdowns against three interceptions and rushed for six scores. Beathard could be without the services of leading rusher Jordan Canzeri, who ran for 12 touchdowns but left the Big Ten championship game with a sprained right ankle and is listed as questionable for the Rose Bowl. Iowa’s secondary is led by first team All-American Desmond King, who received the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation’s top defensive back after recording eight interceptions while averaging 25.6 yards per kickoff return and 12.7 yards on punts.

TRENDS:

* Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games.
* Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
* Over is 8-3 in Cardinal last 11 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 8-2 in Hawkeyes last 10 neutral site games.



Allstate Sugar Bowl

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Ole Miss Rebels (-7.5, 67.5)

Game played at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL STORYLINES

1. After a humbling defeat a year ago in the postseason, Ole Miss looks to make amends when it takes on Oklahoma State in the Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 1 in New Orleans. The Rebels absorbed a 42-3 loss in last season’s Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl against TCU and now must contend with another talented team from the Big 12. The Cowboys started 10-0 and had hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff before ending the regular season with back-to-back losses.

2. Ole Miss junior defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche - the team’s best defensive player - fell 15 feet twice from a window in mid-December and had to be hospitalized. The team announced Dec. 20 that Nkemdiche, who was charged with misdemeanor marijuana possession following the incident, will be suspended for the bowl game. "I have learned a valuable lesson in the last week, and I look forward to showing NFL personnel that this is not representative of my true character," said Nkemdiche, who announced he will enter the NFL draft, where he likely will be a top-10 pick. "I want to thank my coaches, my teammates and Rebel Nation for their support these past three years, and I look forward to making them proud for years to come."

3. Oklahoma State has some injury issues of its own with quarterback Mason Rudolph employing a walking boot on his right foot with the bowl game less than two weeks away. Still, coach Mike Gundy seems to be unconcerned about the status of Rudolph and two of his weapons, tight end Blake Jarwin (ribs) and fullback Jeremy Seaton (undisclosed). Rudolph led the Big 12 with 57 passes of 20 yards or more and finished his sophomore regular season with 3,591 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Ole Miss as a 6.5-point fave but is now -7.5. the total is up a half-point from the opening 67.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS, 8-4 O/U): The Cowboys rank in the top 10 nationally in passing yards (seventh) and points per game (ninth). They have tons of weapons on offense, but sophomore wide receiver James Washington (52 catches, 1,077 yards, 10 touchdowns) is the best of the bunch. Oklahoma State’s running game is relatively mediocre with only Chris Carson (504 yards) having amassed more than 300 and the team averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.

ABOUT OLE MISS (9-3 7-5 ATS, 4-8 O/U): The Rebels’ offense is centered around dynamic receiver Laquon Treadwell (76 catches, 1,082 yards, eight TDs), who had found the end zone in six straight games prior to a quiet day against Mississippi State to end the regular season. Chad Kelly threw 27 touchdowns during the year, including three in a signature win against Alabama back in September. A one-point overtime loss to a strong Arkansas team is the only thing separating Ole Miss from entering the postseason on a five-game winning streak.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
* Rebels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.
* Over is 6-0 in Cowboys last six games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Rebels last six neutral site games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3
By Bruce Marshall

Friday, January 1

TENNESSEE vs. NORTHWESTERN (Outback Bowl)
Butch Jones won bowl vs. Iowa LY but that was Vols’ first bowl since 2010, a point when UT had dropped consecutive bowls vs. UNC & VPI. Vols 14-10-1 vs. line last two seasons. Cats were 8-4 vs. number in 2015and covered 4 of 5 away from Evanston in 2015, and Fitzgerald 17-10 vs. spread last 27 away from Ryan Field. Fitz 31-22 as dog since 2008 and 23-10 as dog away from home since 2008.

Northwestern, based on team trends.


FLORIDA vs. MICHIGAN (Citrus Bowl)
Jim McElwain no covers last two this season but was still 8-4-1 vs. line in 2015, upping his spread mark to 29-12-1 since late 2012 at CSU. McElwain also 10-4-1 last 15 as dog. Michigan only 6-6 vs. line this season.

Florida, based on team trends.


NOTRE DAME vs. OHIO STATE (Fiesta Bowl)
First meeting since Fiesta Bowl after 2005 season. Buckeyes have won and covered all three meetings since 1995. Brian Kelly just 1-3 vs. line last four bowls, while Urban Meyer now 9-2 SU and vs. line in bowls (counting title game LY). Brian Kelly 3-0-1 last four as dog but just 2-3-1 vs. spread away from South Bend this season.

Ohio State, based on Meyer bowl trends.


IOWA vs. STANFORD (Rose Bowl)
Hawkeyes covered all six away from Iowa City this season and were 2-0 as dog. Kirk Ferentz 5-2 vs. spread last seven in bowls. Stanford 3-1-1 vs. line last five bowls (2-1-1 for David Shaw) and have covered 12 of last 16 since late 2014.

Slight to Iowa, based on recent trends.


OLE MISS at OKLAHOMA STATE (Sugar Bowl)
Hugh Freeze had won and covered handily in his first two bowls at Ole Miss before debacle LY at Peach vs. TCU. Freeze still 32-18-1 vs. spread since arriving at Ole Miss and 42-20-1 vs. spread in career including 2011 at Ark State. Freeze 12-6-1 vs. line vs. non-SEC since 2012 with Rebs. Gundy just 3-4 vs. line last seven bowls and only 7-8 last 15 as dog.

Ole Miss, based on Freeze trends.