Friday 07/17/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Rivers

For Friday take the Rays in Kansas City.

(Possible pitching change to Brian Bannister, stay with play if so)


Zach Greinke is still an upper eschelon hurler but the righty is not the same ridiculously dominant guy we saw in the first few months of the season and therefore I will take the far superior Rays here in this spot.


Sure the road is never easy and especially when going up against a guy of Greinke's stature but James Shields is really really good himself and the difference in offenses is truly night and day. The Royals appeared to be headed in the right direction earlier in the season but their offense has let them down a ton and is bad at best right now when compared to other Major League lineups.


On the opposite extreme is this Tampa Bay club that got out of the gate slower but has been proving itself once again recently as a team that is going to make a lot of noise before all is said and done. Crawford, Upton, Longoria and Pena are all awesome and light years ahead of the Billy Butler's and Mark Teahen's and David DeJesus' of the world.


Greinke could be great and KC could squeak out the victory but all in all and more times than not the Rays are the right side and the victor in this situation.

1♦ Rays (out of 5♦)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dominic Fazzini

Phillies left-hander Jamie Moyer continued his mastery of the Marlins on Thursday night, giving me a second consecutive victory on my complimentary selection. That streak should easily reach three straight today as I love Tim Lincecum and the Giants to crush the Pirates.

I guess Lincecum might be human after all, however.

American League batters actually got to the Giants ace Tuesday in the All-Star Game, scoring one run on two hits in two innings, although Lincecum wasn’t exactly helped by his defense in that outing.

That was the first time in quite awhile, however, that Lincecum looked average. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner has been nearly unhittable lately. After going 4-1 with a 1.48 in six June starts, the hard-throwing right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.98 in two outings this month.

Lefty Paul Maholm (6-4, 4.60) will take the mound for the Pirates. He pitched well in his last outing, giving up two runs on six hits in six innings at Houston on July 7, but he has been inconsistent this season, looking brilliant at times and awful at others.

Maholm has pitched well at home, going 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA in seven outings at PNC Park, but Pittsburgh is 1-4 in his last five home starts. He is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts against San Francisco, and he had better be at his best if he expects to outperform Lincecum.

The Giants have struggled on the road this year, at 18-24, and are starting a 10-game road trip to begin the second half of the season. Lincecum, though, is 5-1 with a 2.22 ERA away from AT&T Park.

Lincecum has faced Pittsburgh only once in his career and was hit hard, allowing six runs on nine hits in six innings. But that was back in 2007, when he was a rookie. He’s a whole lot better now. Take the Giants on the run line.

(Based on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)

4♦ SAN FRANCISCO -1 1/2 RUNS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese

Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics

Total 9 ov+100

Los Angels starter Joe Saunders has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. The Angels are 8-0 OVER in the last starts made by Saunders. The Angels are 6-1-1 OVER off a win and they are 16-5-2 OVER when the Total is 9.0 to 10.5. Oakland starter Trevor Cahill has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. Cahill has allowed 19 runs in his last 12.2 innings of work. The Athletics are 4-0 OVER when Cahill pitches Game 2 of a series.

PLAY ON 'OVER' (Cahill vs. Saunders)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vernon Croy

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Boston Red Sox +112

Take the Boston Red Sox on the Moneyline, The Red Sox are the overall superior team here Friday night so we are getting solid value going against a Blue Jays team that is just 9-19 against division opponents this season. The Red Sox are 22-9 against division opponents this season and they are a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Red Sox are 19-8 in their last 27 games against a lefty starter and the Blue Jays are just 1-6 in their last 7 games as a favorite including 0-5 in their last 5 games when favored by -110 to -150. The Red Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 games against the Blue Jays and I look for Clay Buchholz to have a solid start in his first outing of the season. Ricky Romero (7-3, 3.00 ERA) was hit hard in his only outing against the Red Sox this season allowing 6 hits and 2 homeruns in just 4 innings and I look for the Red Sox to hit him hard again tonight.

Take the Boston Red Sox as my MLB Bonus Play for Friday night.

 

[fmarting]

MLB Computer Picks

New York Yankees -210
San Francisco Giants -155
St. Louis Cardinals -240

Wow I hope nobody paid for those picks. You'd have to go 3-0 to make money and they are all obvious picks

 

[Ironhorse]

Cork pm me for a split Davis , Valentino, Garrett have big plays today !!!

 

[Tiznow214]

THREE 12* games from the doctors today (21-6) MTD on 12* and went 4-1 yesterday, anyone want to split with me today ? thanks in advance

 

[LocksRus]

Cork pm me for a split Davis , Valentino, Garrett have big plays today !!!

Guys, I know you all like to buy the guys that have "big" plays, but if I may just offer my two cents.

First, let me say that I very much appreciate you all buying these plays because I enjoy seeing who these handicappers have.

But, in my opinion, Matt Rivers is by far the best baseball capper on that site. He doesn't release many "big" plays, but he wins, and more importantly, he usually wins with underdogs in baseball. The only one who may be doing better than him overall this year is Al Demarco, who only releases plays a few times a week.

Thanks again for buying the plays. This is just my two-cents. I think Rivers is very very solid in baseball. I've been following all the guys on the GameTime site for about three years now.

Best of luck! :toast:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc's Sports

San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
PICK: San Francisco Giants

One of the few times that we would consider laying this big a number on the road. But, with Tim Lincecum (10-2, 2.33) on the mound, the confidence builds. In his last outing he carried a no-hit bid into the seventh inning. The Pirates (38-50) are on track for a MLB record 17th straight losing season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Fargo

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee grabbed game one of this series last night making it four straight wins against the Reds and six of the last seven in the season series. This is the time of year that we separate the contenders from the pretenders and I believe that the Brewers are the former while the Reds are the latter. Cincinnati has done a decent job of hanging around but its pitching cannot hold up and it will be evident tonight. Bronson Arroyo is having a tough year despite putting up a winning record at 9-8. He has a 5.38 ERA on the season to go along with a 1.48 WHIP and those numbers inflate even more at home. He has a 6.37 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in nine home outings and one of those includes a disaster against Milwaukee back in May. He allowed nine runs on seven hits and three walks in just one inning and that type of performance will stay with you when facing the same team again. It has been an up and down season for Jeff Suppan and his best work has come on the road. He is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA in 10 road starts with Milwaukee going 7-3 in those games. Compare that to Miller Park, where Suppan is 1-5 with a 6.12 ERA and a .322 opponents' average in eight starts with the Brewers going 2-5. The Brewers are 5-0 in Suppan?s last five starts as an underdog of +110 to +150 while the Reds are 0-5 in Arroyo?s last five starts against a team with a winning record. 3* Milwaukee Brewers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ALEX SMART

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Over 9

Joe Saunders the LA Angels starting pitcher against the Oakland Athletics is in struggling form. The hurler has allowed a ridiculous 11 home runs in his last six trips to the hill. He has allowed 18 runs in his last three outings overall and owns a ugly looking 1.68 home runs per nine innings average this season. Those are some nasty numbers. The Angels pitching staff as whole have struggled during this campaign, ranking 26 th in MLB , allowing opposing offenses to average 4.74 RPG via a .277 BA for average. The Halos only saving grace has been an offense that has been explosive that continues to find ways to score even without Vlad Guerrero , Tori Hunter out of the lineup . Meanwhile, the A's starter Trevor Cahill (5-8, 4.67), is also struggling as is evident by a current 0-3 run that seen him garner a massive 11.37 ERA in his last three outings. Considering the pitching matchup Everything points to this being a high scoring tilt. Final notes & Key Trends: Over is 8-0 in Saunders' last 8 starts overall. In Cahills L/3 starts opposing offenses have piled 31 runs on the board.... Play OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Ryan

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Atlanta as they host the Mets set to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 33-10 making 21.9 units since 1997. Play against road teams with a good OBP >=.340 facing a good NL starting pitcher sporting a WHIP=1.250 to 1.300 and with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 3 or less batters per start. Braves starter Jurrgens could easily have 12 or maybe even 13 wins if the Braves would show some run support. They certainly will get enough runs for him tonight knowing that Pelfry is the opposing starter and the Mets are just playing very poorly right now and there is no reason to believe that type fo play will change anytime soon. Braves third baseman Chipper Jones is 4 for 13 with two homers lifetime against Pelfrey. Jones, batting .330 in his career versus the Mets, had the go-ahead RBI single in the seventh inning yesterday. Mets are just 12-29 (-18.4 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. Pelfry has solid stats over his last 3 starts, but the 3rd to last start was an excellent one where he allowed ZERO ER in 7 IP against Milwaukee. Since then he has allowed 7 ER in 10 innings pitched. Take Atlanta.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

VEGAS EXPERTS

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds

The last time Reds starter Bronson Arroyo faced the Milwaukee Brewers he last just one inning after he allowed nine runs on seven hits in a 15-3 Reds loss. Arroyo has not been sharp at home this season as he has a 6.37 ERA in nine starts. Brewers starter Jeff Suppan has done the same, but he pitches much better on the road. On the year he has a 7-3 TSR in 10 road starts and an ERA of 3.63. Suppan also has a 13-8 TSR as an road underdog over the past two seasons. Go with Milwaukee.

Play on: Milwaukee

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jr Tips

RED SOX vs. BLUE JAYS

Clay Buchholz, the young right-hander will get another chance to pitch the Boston Red Sox on Friday. Buhholz gets his first start as he went 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA, losing his last seven decisions inb 2008 before getting sent to Triple-A.Buchholz has spent all of this year in the minors with a 7-2 record and 2.36 ERA with just 67 hits allowed in 99 innings. He will face the Bluejays Ricky Romero (7-3, 3.00 ERA) who has been stellar for a banged-up Blue Jays rotation. The left-hander is 4-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his last six starts although Romero struggled in his lone start against Boston, allowing five runs in four innings of an 8-2 loss May 31st. He walked five and gave up home runs to Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis which was the Red Sox's only win in a three-game series at Rogers Centre.The Blue Jays (44-46) have lost 12 of their last 15. Boston is a good underdog tonight as they crushed Romero when they faced him last time. Boston's young pitcher who started out fast in the Majors with a no-hitter has his first chance to get back in the bigs which will bring out a good performance.

TAKE BOSTON+120

 

[ace911]

Cork pm me for a split Davis , Valentino, Garrett have big plays today !!!

Of those 3 I would LOVE to see Valentino. He is the best IMO

 

[backdoorcover1]

BOB VALENTINO HAS A BIG PLAY GOING...JUST THOUGHT I WOULD PUT IT OUT THERE BECAUSE HIS PLAYS ARE RARE

BIGGEST PLAY OF THE MLB SEASON!



30 DIME

A.L. East Game of the Year



Red Sox vs. Blue Jays

 

[Tiznow214]

if your interested in splitting the doctors with me email me at tiznow214@yahoo.com

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gamehunter
PITTSBURGH +143 (1.5 UNITS)

FLORIDA +124 (1.5 UNITS)

ARIZONA +194 (1 UNIT)

UNDER COL/SD 7.5 RUNS (-103) (1.5 UNITS)

UNDER BOS/TOR 8.5 RUNS (+102) (1.75 UNITS)

WHITE SOX -1.5 RUNS (+138) (1.5 UNITS)

OAKLAND EVEN (1.5 UNITS)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

IndianCowboy

Friday's Comp Selection

15-10 (60%) Comp Winners after Angels Plus Money Yesterday

Take the Toronto Bluejays -120 over the Boston Redsox (Friday @ 7pm est). It is so tough for a pitcher to come back from being away from the game quite some time. For Clay Buchholz, it has been about eleven months since his lsat start which was back on on August 20th. Although I do think Clay gets it together and helps the Redsox in a big way down the road, it is just incredibly tough for a pitcher to just to gel back into the groove. Tack on the fact this is an important division game for the Jays as well, and this could yield a tough game for Clay. Romero has been solid as well as he is 4-0 over his last 6 starts. Romero picked up a ND in his last start despite pitching well as he gave up 3 runs in his last 8 innings. Unfortunately for Romero, the Jays ended up losing the contest 3-4 in the end. I expect Romero to continue pitching well in this division tilt as he has put together 8 straight quality starts and this is just a tough arena to throw Clay into for his first start - but the sooner the better is what the Sox feel. I expect the public to pile on thinking that this is great value with the Redsox as a dog, but I think they might take it up the chin a bit here which explains why the Jays are favored here despite the Redsox's success this year. The Blue Jays are 5-1 over his last 6 starts at home and the Redsox are 1-10 over Buchholz's last 11 road starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Glenn McGrew

Angels at A's

LA is still a dangerous team, with their balanced offense, aggressive base running and pitching depth. Ervin Santana got the win last night over Oakland, 6-2. They have won 4 in a row. Now Joe Saunders faces a light-hitting Oakland lineup, a team on a 6-12 run. Saunders is 7-2 in his career against Oakland and 2-0 this season with a 1.35 ERA. Oakland starter Trevor Cahill is 0-3 with an 11.37 ERA his last three starts.

Play the Angels.