Friday 06/26/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Tom Freese

Bonus Play

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays:

Total 9 un-115

Philadelphia is 7-2 UNDER their last 9 Interleague road games. Starting pitcher Cole Hamels has a better than 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Phillies are 7-3-1 UNDER in Game 1 of a series and they are 13-6-1 UNDER in the last 20 starts made by Hamels. Toronto starter Ricky Romero has allowed 3 or less runs in 7 of his 9 starts. Toronto is 4-1-2 UNDER vs. a team with a road win percentage of over 60%. The Blue Jays are 5-2 UNDER their last 7 games as underdogs.

PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Romero vs. Hamels)
 

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Dave Price

Bonus Play for 6/26/09

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Philadelphia Phillies -116

The reigning World Series champs have been at their best on the road this season with an impressive 24-11 road mark. I'll back them tonight at a nice price behind southpaw ace Cole Hamels. The Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150, 20-6 in their last 26 games as a road favorite, and 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 road starts. The Blue Jays are just 3-7 in their last 10 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.
I like Hamels' to get the Phillies back in the win column tonight.

1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -116
 

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Rocky Atkinson

Bonus Play

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh 7:05 PM EST

Kansas City (Meche/Vasquez) Listed


Kansas City is 72-58 +29 units the past 3 years when the total is 8 to 8 1/2. Pittsburgh is 1-9 this year when playing on Friday. Kansas City bullpen has a 3.78 ERA on the road this year. Gil Meche is 3-2 with a 2.20 ERA on the road this year and he is 2-1 his last 3 starts. Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Royals are 4-1 in Meches last 5 interleague starts. Pirates are 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Pirates are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite of +110 to +150. Pirates are 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Pirates are 0-6 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series. Royals are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
We'll recommend a small play on Kansas City tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Kansas City Royals -122
 

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Larry Ness

Today’s Free Pick

GAME: Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays Jun 26, 2009 7:07PM

PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

REASON FOR PICK: The Phillies are barely hanging on to first place in the NL East, having lost 10 of 12 games but NINE of those 10 losses have come at home. The Phiilies still own MLB's best road record, going 24-11 while averaging 5.93 RPG. The Phillies scored four times in the top of the first inning last night at Tampa but then never scored again, losing 10-4. They move on to Toronto this weekend, wrapping up the IL season with three-game set with the Blue Jays. The Jays are 40-34 overall on the season, including 23-14 at home. The pitching matchup features two lefties, Cole Hamels (last year's MVP in both the NLCS and World Series) and rookie Ricky Romero. Hamels was brutal in his first two starts this year (9.2 IP / 19 hits / 12 ERs / 11.17 ERA) but has allowed three ERs or less in NINE of his last 11 starts (team is 7-4). Hamels struck out a season-high 10 and didn't walk a single batter over eight innings in his last outing (last Sunday vs Baltimore) but the Phillies still lost, 2-1. Philadelphia has now lost Hamels' last two starts after winning his previous five. However, Hamels' early season woes seem to be behind him. Romero has looked good for the Jays in nine starts this year, going 4-3 with a 3.59 ERA (team is 5-4). The lefty vs lefty matchup favors the Phillies who were 32-22 (5.4 RPG) vs left-handers last year and have opened 16-10 (5.6 RPG) vs them in '09. In contrast the Jays were only 21-24 vs left-handers last season and are just 12-11 against them this year. I'm taking Hamels over the rookie in this one.

Take Philly
 

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Matt Fargo

Today’s Free Pick

San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers Jun 26, 2009 8:05PM

PICK: San Diego Padres

REASON FOR PICK: This is a great value play on the Padres. Texas won two of its final three games in Arizona but both were one-run victories and it has been a rough stretch for the Rangers. Since May 31st, Texas is only 9-13 and tonight on its return home finds itself more than a 2-1 underdog. To put that into perspective, the Rangers have not been a 2-1 favorite this season and have not been a 2-1 favorite since 2006 when they went 0-2 in that situation. The Padres come into town in the midst of a bad run of their own but they have not been a 2-1 underdog at all this season. These heavy favorite lines should be set on the elite teams and the Rangers are far from that at this point in the season. Making this line so high is the fact that Kevin Millwood takes the hill for the Rangers and he is having a great season. In 15 starts, he has a 2.62 ERA including a 2.08 ERA in eight home starts. Those ERA’s are very solid but his WHIP both overall and at home is 1.22 and while good, it is not in line with those ERA’s. He is allowing a good number of baserunners but has been fortunate to get out of jams. Texas is just 8-7 in those 15 games. The Padres counter with Walter Silva who is off to a slow start but does have two decent outings in his three starts on the season. He went on the disabled list after his April 13th start against Mets and returned last Saturday against Oakland by allowing three runs in 5.1 innings so it was very close to a quality outing. We look for him to carry some of that over into this one and give San Diego a very good chance to cash a large ticket.

3* San Diego Padres
 

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Nick Parsons

Bonus Play

Washington Nationals @ Baltimore Orioles UNDER 9 1/2

One night after the lowly Nationals ended their own three-game losing streak, the Orioles will try to do the same at Washington’s expense in Friday’s opener of the latest Beltway Series.Baltimore (32-40) had won five straight and seven of eight against the class of the NL East, opening its six-game road trip with a three-game sweep of defending World Series champion Philadelphia.But the Florida Marlins sent the Orioles to an 11-3 loss Thursday to finish a sweep. Baltimore’s team ERA swelled to 5.06, which ranks 28th in the majors, after giving up 23 runs in the series; that being said, I look for Brad Bergesen to have a big game throwing tonight; Baltimore rookie Brad Bergesen (4-2, 3.94) has been effective lately. Bergesen’s run of four straight quality starts ended Saturday when he allowed four runs in 6 1-3 innings at Philadelphia, but the right-hander still has a 2.35 ERA in his last five starts and has not lost since May 19. Ross Detwiler, another first-year player in Washington’s rookie-laden rotation, (0-3, 4.76 ERA) is still looking for his first major league win, but he held Toronto to two runs in seven-plus innings of the Nationals’ 5-3, 12-inning win Saturday. Baltimore has seen the total go under the posted number in 15 of 20 games in June and I expect this strong trend to continue.

Play on the UNDER!
 

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VEGAS EXPERTS

Bonus Play

Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks

The Los Angeles Angels are 11-4 in interleague play this year and tonight face the Arizona Diamondbacks in the desert. Arizona is just 15-25 at home this season and are 9-18 at home against right-handed pitchers this season. Arizona starter Billy Buckner has an 0-3 TSR at home this season with an ERA of 10.91. The Angels are 18-9 on the road in the month of June over the past two seasons. Go with the Angels in this one.

Play on: LA Angels
 

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Tommy Gill

Bonus Play

The Brewers are terrible at interleague play every season and they are probably really happy to be getting the Giants in town. The Giants are 5 games under .500 away from home this season and have struggled against the Brewers in the past. The Brewers have won 7 out of there last 9 games against the Giants and are 14-3 in there last 17 games in Milwaukee. The pitching matchup in this game is even with two outstanding pitchers on the mound in Matt Cain (9-1 2.28 ERA) vs. Gallarardo (7-4 3.00 ERA). On the road this season the Giants are only averaging 3.43 runs per game while the Brewers are averaging 4.29 runs a game at home so I see some value today in the better team at home in getting the much need win to stay in the hunt for there division.

2 units Brewers -145
 

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MTi Sports

Bonus Play

Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

The Diamondbacks are 3-24 as a dog when they lost the last two games their starter started and the Angels are 10-0 since when Jered Weaver starts as a favorite after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start.

Consider the Halos.
 

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Jr Tips

Bonus Play

LA ANGELS vs. ARIZONA

The Los Angeles Angels (38-32) have won nine of 12 heading into Arizona, with their two latest victories coming over red-hot Colorado Rockies.Vladimir Guerrero ended a 28-game home run drought with a two-run shot and added an RBI double, lifting the Angels' interleague record to 11-4. Los Angeles is 9-1 this season when Guerrero drives in a run.The Angels were 9-4 when Jered Weaver (7-3, 2.53 ERA) had started coming into his latest outing before a rare poor performance Saturday against the Dodgers and facing his older brother Jeff. Weaver hasn't faced Arizona (30-43), but should bounce back agaist the Arizona Diamondbacks who haven't won a series at home in their last seven, losing six and tying one. To combat their troubles winning, Arizona will have to start the struggling Billy Buckner (2-4, 7.15) who is 0-3 with a 9.72 ERA over his last three starts. The hot LA Angel bats should have no problem getting to Buckner. Jered Weaver was overly anxious in his last game facing his brother but he is giving up less than 3 runs a game,threw 3 complete games already this year and will bounce back tonight and get the job done.

LA ANGELS-160
 

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Karl Garrett

Bonus Play

Boston at ATLANTA

G-Man brings a 7-3 comp play run the last 10 days into Friday's action.

Coming strong on Friday night with a totals release on Boston and Atlanta OVER the total.

Yeah, I know that Josh Beckett just shut out Atlanta last week in Beantown, but with the weather being a tad on the humid side in Atlanta these days, I have to believe we are going to see the bats take control of this game tonight.

Boston comes to town having played OVER the posted price in their last 4 games, while the Braves sailed OVER in their last pair at home against the Yankees.

Beckett has a road ERA of 4.67 this year, and the G-Man just gets the feeling the hot and muggy night at Turner Field is going to produce another high-scoring contest.

Take the Red Sox-Braves OVER the posted total.

4* OVER
 

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Chris Jordan

Bonus Play

Cincinnati +100 at CLEVELAND

Love the road team in this Buckeye State battle, as we bank on Aaron Harang to get it done and avenge a 4-1 loss to the White Sox his last time out.

The right-hander, who is 3-1 with a 2.24 ERA in eight starts against the Indians in his career, has pitched well enough to win for the most part, but has been on the tough end of several losses and no-decisions.

He's allowed just three earned runs over 17 innings his last three times out, and that includes an eight-inning performance the last time he pitched on the road - at Washington, where he didn't allow one earned run.

He'll do much better for us than Jeremy Sowers, who lasted just 4-1/3 innings in his last start, allowing six runs on seven hits with four walks in a 6-2 loss against the Cubs last Sunday.

The loss extended his losing streak to three games, and it doesn't get any easier in having to face the Reds. He is 0-2 with an 8.55 ERA in four career starts against them. On top of that, in two Interleague starts this season, the southpaw is 0-2 with an 8.68 ERA.

Take the Reds with Harang and Sowers listed.

1* REDS
 

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Bobby Maxwell

Friday's FREE winner comes from Milwaukee today as we go with the Giants on the road against the Brewers.

San Francisco +135 at MILWAUKEE

We just love this opportunity tonight to get one of the best pitchers in baseball this season in Matt Cain and get plus-money to boot.

San Francisco's best hurler, Cain (9-1, 2.28 ERA) is on the mound and he is coming off a great home start against the Rangers, allowing one run on three hits while striking out eight in eight innings. Cain was on a six-game winning streak before the no-decision on Saturday, and he hasn't lost in nine outings.

Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo (7-4, 3.00) will start at home in this one. He gave up three runs on six hits agaisnt Detroit on Sunday and they lost 3-2 to the Tigers. He's got a 5.63 ERA in three career starts against San Francisco.

I know the Giants have had their struggles in Milwaukee, losing 12 of the last 14, but let's look at facts and see that tonight, the Giants have the better hurler on the hill. And Milwaukee has dropped five of their last six overall and 11 of 16, going 2-7 at Miller Park in their place.

San Francisco has won five of six games and is on runs of 9-4 against winning teams, 6-2 after an off-day and 4-0 on Fridays. We love the Giants and Cain in this one.

2* SAN FRANCISCO
 

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Bonus Play

San Francisco at MILWAUKEE

Thursday comp play winner on the Yankees, now 14-8 the last 22 days for free.

Friday night we like Matt Cain, and Yovani Gallardo to match pitches well into the Wisconsin night, as we play the Giants, and Brewers UNDER the posted total.

Cain comes into this start off 17 innings of 2 run ball, as he has lowered his season ERA to a microscopic 2.28. His counterpart Yovani Gallardo hasn't been as untouchable, but his ERA is an even 3.00 for the season, which isn't too shabby.

Cain's April start against Milwaukee saw just 1 run cross in 7 innings of work, while Gallardo's April start against San Francisco saw just 2 runs score in 7 innings.

The Giants have played UNDER the total in 4 of their last 5 ball games, and we like them to stay LOW tonight, as this game has the makings of a classic midsummer pitching duel.

Play the UNDER.

3* UNDER
 

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Brad Diamond Sports

Bonus Play

Always difficult going against right hander Cain as the visiting Giants are a perfect 9-0 in his last nine mound outings. However, like the Brewers who own this series winning 7 of the last 9, and 14 of 17 in Milwaukee. Milwaukee countering with a 4-0 mark at home with Gallardo and 12-3 overall at home versus a winning club.

Milwaukee over San Francisco
 

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Jorge Gonzalez

Bonus Play

San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The San Francisco Giants (39-32) will be sending one of the hottest pitchers in the league to the mound when they take on the Milwaukee Brewers (38-33). Matt Cain (9-1, 2.28 ERA) will take on face off against Yovani Gallardo ( 7-4, 3.00). The Giants have one of the surprises this season. The Giants were predicted by many to finish last in the National League West Division. The Giants have won the last nine straight games the Cain has started. San Francisco has won five of their last six games and will be taking on a Brewer team that has struggled winning just once in their last seven games a home favorite. Both pitchers are budding stars that could easily pitch their team to a victory. Take the Giants here with the value of being the underdog despite playing better baseball as of late.

Play Giants Money Line: 134
 

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Red Dog Sports

Bonus Play

Detroit at Houston

Justin Verlander has given up 2,5,1,0,3,1 and 2 in his last 7 starts. The team is 10-5 in his starts and the Tigers are 51-21 in their last 72 Interleague games. The Astros are only 3-8 in their last 11 Interleague games. Look for the Tigers to win a close one.

Play Detroit
 

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Terron Chapman

Bonus Play

Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox

Play: Under 9

The Cubs and White Sox will hook up once again this weekend, this time on the Southside of Chicago when the two begin a three-game set at US Cellular Field. The two split a shortened two game series just over a week ago. Randy Wells will toe the slab for the visiting Cubs opposed by Jose Contreras of the White Sox. Both pitchers enter this contest pitching well and could present some problems for the opposing offenses. Wells is coming off of his first Major League win, getting the decision in a 6-2 win against the Indians. He had allowed three runs or less in six of his seven starts before that outing against Cleveland but was a victim of an anemic Cubs offense. Not much has changed as the Cubbies are still struggling at the plate, hitting just .237 away from Wrigley. After a five start stint with Triple-A Charlotte, Jose Contreras has returned to give the White Sox three consecutive quality starts. Since rejoining the rotation, Contreras has allowed 12 hits and three runs over 22 innings, striking out 13 and walking three. The White Sox enter this meeting with plenty of momentum after taking two of three from the visiting Dodgers. They had seven home runs in those two wins against Los Angeles, but will find it hard to go deep off of Wells who has allowed just two home runs in 49 innings pitched this season. These two starting pitchers should make it hard for these two offenses to exceed expectations.

1.5 units Play Under the total
 

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