Hi Deb12,
I haven’t been posting my opinions much this season, but since you asked, here are some of my thoughts on this game:
My numbers say Pittsburgh should be favored by 12.5 pts. But much more needs to be considered when taking a side besides the numbers…I personally prefer to put more emphasis on the situational factors this time of the season than just the numbers. There is indeed much to consider when taking a side.
One of the main things I choose to focus on is the energy factor – which is merely an analysis of how much effort was required for each team to get into the playoffs. Point spread wins and losses are a reflection of this, as some of the more astute handicappers have already pointed out this season. For the NFL, I spend more time handicapping the point spread lines more than I do in the college ranks. There is certainly much value in knowing when the Vegas line has been skewed by public perception.
There is a direct correlation between how hard a team had to perform towards the end of the season to get to the playoffs, and how long it will last once it gets there.
Last week the Jets beat the Chargers in a hard fought OT win, and is now being asked to do it again against a well rested Steelers squad that was not playing their “A” game the last time these two matched up. This will be the third consecutive road game for the Jets…extremely tough!
As opposed to the last time they played each other, Pittsburgh will have a full complement of receivers to throw to. This will make their running game even that much more potent. More importantly is the line of scrimmage. Pittsburgh wins on both sides of the line. The Jets need to be successful running the ball in order to get their passing game going. I don’t see this happening against the Steelers defense.
The Steelers showed how deep and disciplined they were when they dominated Buffalo in a so-called “meaningless game” utilizing their bench players in doing so.
There is an exception to every single rule of handicapping and betting. But few will stand up to the consistency of the one involving energy.
GOOD LUCK, and thanks for asking!
RIPPER
I haven’t been posting my opinions much this season, but since you asked, here are some of my thoughts on this game:
My numbers say Pittsburgh should be favored by 12.5 pts. But much more needs to be considered when taking a side besides the numbers…I personally prefer to put more emphasis on the situational factors this time of the season than just the numbers. There is indeed much to consider when taking a side.
One of the main things I choose to focus on is the energy factor – which is merely an analysis of how much effort was required for each team to get into the playoffs. Point spread wins and losses are a reflection of this, as some of the more astute handicappers have already pointed out this season. For the NFL, I spend more time handicapping the point spread lines more than I do in the college ranks. There is certainly much value in knowing when the Vegas line has been skewed by public perception.
There is a direct correlation between how hard a team had to perform towards the end of the season to get to the playoffs, and how long it will last once it gets there.
Last week the Jets beat the Chargers in a hard fought OT win, and is now being asked to do it again against a well rested Steelers squad that was not playing their “A” game the last time these two matched up. This will be the third consecutive road game for the Jets…extremely tough!
As opposed to the last time they played each other, Pittsburgh will have a full complement of receivers to throw to. This will make their running game even that much more potent. More importantly is the line of scrimmage. Pittsburgh wins on both sides of the line. The Jets need to be successful running the ball in order to get their passing game going. I don’t see this happening against the Steelers defense.
The Steelers showed how deep and disciplined they were when they dominated Buffalo in a so-called “meaningless game” utilizing their bench players in doing so.
There is an exception to every single rule of handicapping and betting. But few will stand up to the consistency of the one involving energy.
GOOD LUCK, and thanks for asking!
RIPPER
Hello ripper..
Thank you very much for your thoughtful and very well written analysis, like you my numbers have Pittsburgh winning out over these visiting jets quite easily by a final score of 30-13, hence I am all over the Steelers -8.5 and the OVER the relatively low total of 34.5....the Steelers are my biggest wager of the weekend.
Football is a game of momentum and I do not think the jets have any real momentum heading into Pittsburgh, sure they won last week at San Diego but did they truly dominate? Was the outcome ever in question? Did the jets play exceptionally well in all phases of the game?
I think the answer to each question other than "Was the outcome ever in question" is a very emphatic NO...HC Herm Edwards was caught on camera arguing with an asst coach, three different times the jets had too many or not enough players on the field and the rather stupid roughing the passer penalty could have been disasterous...are these signs of a team rolling with momentum and/or are these signs of a focused team?
The fact of the matter is that the jets have gone 2-2 straight up and ATS in their last four games and the jets visit to Pittsburgh will be the jets third straight road game with the past two games going into overtime.
Pittsburgh is a well rested and very confident team that is the healthiest they have been all season long, the Steelers lost their starting QB Tommy Maddox in week two of the season against the Ravens and never missed a beat with young rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger, these Steelers also lost starting nose tackle Casey Hampton, starting CB Chad Scott, starting LB Kendrell Bell and had long spells without WR Plaxico Burress and RB Duce Staley and STILL finished with a 15-1 record on the year.
The Steelers now have QB Tommy Maddox back healthy and he started and won at Buffalo in their season finale, with Maddox serving as the Steelers backup QB no other remaining playoff team has a better one-two punch should their starting QB go down to injury.
I've been shaking my head in wonderment on how some actually think the jets have a legitimate shot at pulling the upset in this contest, can it happen? Sure anything can happen, but this is gambling and its all about taking the better odds....and Pittsburgh is the odds on favorite in my opinion to not only win this game over the jets but do so in a very dominating manner.
take care and good luck!!
Deb
Thank you very much for your thoughtful and very well written analysis, like you my numbers have Pittsburgh winning out over these visiting jets quite easily by a final score of 30-13, hence I am all over the Steelers -8.5 and the OVER the relatively low total of 34.5....the Steelers are my biggest wager of the weekend.
Football is a game of momentum and I do not think the jets have any real momentum heading into Pittsburgh, sure they won last week at San Diego but did they truly dominate? Was the outcome ever in question? Did the jets play exceptionally well in all phases of the game?
I think the answer to each question other than "Was the outcome ever in question" is a very emphatic NO...HC Herm Edwards was caught on camera arguing with an asst coach, three different times the jets had too many or not enough players on the field and the rather stupid roughing the passer penalty could have been disasterous...are these signs of a team rolling with momentum and/or are these signs of a focused team?
The fact of the matter is that the jets have gone 2-2 straight up and ATS in their last four games and the jets visit to Pittsburgh will be the jets third straight road game with the past two games going into overtime.
Pittsburgh is a well rested and very confident team that is the healthiest they have been all season long, the Steelers lost their starting QB Tommy Maddox in week two of the season against the Ravens and never missed a beat with young rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger, these Steelers also lost starting nose tackle Casey Hampton, starting CB Chad Scott, starting LB Kendrell Bell and had long spells without WR Plaxico Burress and RB Duce Staley and STILL finished with a 15-1 record on the year.
The Steelers now have QB Tommy Maddox back healthy and he started and won at Buffalo in their season finale, with Maddox serving as the Steelers backup QB no other remaining playoff team has a better one-two punch should their starting QB go down to injury.
I've been shaking my head in wonderment on how some actually think the jets have a legitimate shot at pulling the upset in this contest, can it happen? Sure anything can happen, but this is gambling and its all about taking the better odds....and Pittsburgh is the odds on favorite in my opinion to not only win this game over the jets but do so in a very dominating manner.
take care and good luck!!
Deb
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roethlisberger is still a rookie. I wouldnt get too cocky putting money on a rookie QB to blowout a pretty decent team in the jets. The jets were tied 3-3 in the fourth quarter of their last matchup. I am not saying playing the jets is a great move, but 30-13 is a bit overblown.Deb12 said:
Some factors before calling for a blowout:
1- the last meeting between the same teams was 17-6. not exactly a blowout
2- That was pennington's second game back from an injury.
3- The game was 3-3 in the 4th quarter
4- Jets committed about 11 penalties in the first half. NOte the jets have been one of the top 2 least penalized teams in the last 3 years. So that was clearly an abberation.
5- Roethlisberger will be facing a ton of pressure for a rookie. THey are expected to win this game and losing it would be a disaster for the steelers. THe jets are playing with house money this week.
6- Steelers did not beat a team by more than 14 points all year. Although, i have to concede that many times playoff games get out of control once a team gets down early.
7- The jets play not to lose. Which usually means that they don't make mistakes and dont panic even when they get down early. They tend to keep games close until the end when their coach screws up and they choke.
just some thoughts to consider.
Geeeeez one would think the Jets will get 7-14 points, now by the line maker makeing that total of 34, makes one wonder if the dog here is the Only side to have or No play. Those sneaky Jets just might accidently shock some here, ya do know this is the NFL and strange things happen here ALL the time in the Never Figure League.
Hello primetime21...
First of all I think there's a big difference in being "Cocky" and being confident, personally I like to consider myself confident when it comes to how I analyze games and fortunately for my pocket book I have been pretty darn successful over the years.
Now with regard to your points concerning the Steeler/jets matchup, yes I realize that the score was knotted at 3-3 at the half and yes I also realize that Pittsburgh broke the game open in the fourth quarter with RB Jerome Bettis's half back pass and also scored with four minutes left in the game to seal the win with a final score of 17-6.
However, most pundits are forgetting that Steeler WR Plaxico Burress did not play and RB Duce Staley was hampered with a sore hamstring during the first half of play and Staley ended up being sidelined the entire second half.
Plaxico Burress is Pittsburgh's deep downfield threat and also is QB Ben Roethlisberger's favorite target, this time around is a totally different ball game with a healthy Burress in the lineup to stretch the field and open up the middle of the field as well as opening up the Steeler running game.
I would look for the Steelers to attack the jet defensive secondary with WR’s Plaxico Burress, Hines Ward and third receiver Antwaan Randle El, jet CB’s David Barrett and Donnie Abraham will have their hands full trying to keep up with WR’s Burress and Ward which will leave jet DB’s Terrell Buckley or rookie Derrick Strait to cover WR Antwaan Randle El, I really don’t believe the jet defensive secondary will be able to control the Steeler WR’s and especially Hines Ward coming across the middle.
With regard to the point you made about how the jets played the first time around having a total of 12 penalties for 84 yards, if you were to look back at the jets last couple of games against San Diego and St Louis you would see that the jets totaled 15 penalties for 124 yards in those games, to me this is a sign of a VERY undisciplined team that is prone to making stupid mistakes.
If you watched the jets game last week against the Chargers you saw jets head coach Herm Edwards caught on camera arguing with his linebackers coach, and three different times the jets had too many or not enough players on the field, is this the way a "Smart" and/or disciplined team plays?
You mentioned that the Steelers should not be laying 8.5 points because they hadn't beaten any team by more than 14 points all season long....Really?...tell that to the Eagles who were thumped by the final score of 27-3 at Heinz field.
Pittsburgh is undefeated at home this season and have outscored opponents by an average score of 25-13, in other words the Steelers average home win all season long has been by 12 points, if you would check Pittsburgh's schedule you would see that these Steelers have won 7 of their 8 home games this season by 9 points or more.
The fact of the matter is that Pittsburgh has a very balanced offense and plays their best at home, in the Steelers last five home games they have defeated the Ravens, the jets, the Skins, the Eagles, and the Pats by a combined score of 114-43 which of course is an average margin of victory of 23-9....and three of these last five home wins came against current playoff teams.
And finally with regard to Roethlisberger being a rookie, I am quite sure that any of the other 31 teams in the league would LOVE to have Pittsburgh's problem of having a rookie under center considering that this same "Rookie" guided them to a 15-1 regular season record which includes 14 straight wins.
take care and good luck
Deb
I like all the reports coming out of the Jet camp about the flu with a good number of impact players. Pennington finally back Thursday for the first time all week and said he was "100% fine." Right, sure. It takes me more than a week to be 100% off an illness like that, and that was when I was in great shape and 25 years old!
With Burress, Staley, Ward at or near 100% after a week rest, and the Jets 3rd road game, this won't even be close!!
Go Steelers! :drink:
With Burress, Staley, Ward at or near 100% after a week rest, and the Jets 3rd road game, this won't even be close!!
Go Steelers! :drink:
The consensus has this one right.
Jets have a few injuries.
QB not 100%.
Only scored 6pts vs pitt a few weeks ago.
Been in B2B OT games lat 2 weeks.
3rd straight away game.
Pitt rested starters.
PITT +200 to win SB (shortest).
JETS +2500 (longest odds to win SB of remaining teams).
PITT BY 10-17 points.
Jets have a few injuries.
QB not 100%.
Only scored 6pts vs pitt a few weeks ago.
Been in B2B OT games lat 2 weeks.
3rd straight away game.
Pitt rested starters.
PITT +200 to win SB (shortest).
JETS +2500 (longest odds to win SB of remaining teams).
PITT BY 10-17 points.
Rookie QB
Allot of people are saying that Roethlisberger's inexperience is what will hurt the Steelers. I for one disagree. Pittsburgh's system is not as dependent on the QB to win the game. All that is required of him is to play within the system.
I draw much comparison to this year Steelers team, and the Superbowl winning Ravens team. The key to the Ravens success was of course talent/coaching, ball control, great defense, and not giving the game away (very similar to this years Steelers team). Dilfer wasn’t exactly a world-beater, but he played within the system, didn’t play beyond his ability, or was asked to do so. In my view, the difference that stands out the most between the superbowl Ravens and the Steelers, is that Pittsburgh has more talent on the offensive side of the ball. (I will concede that Baltimore’s D was better, however slight)
I agree with you Deb, this game should go over the 35 point total.
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RIPPER
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Allot of people are saying that Roethlisberger's inexperience is what will hurt the Steelers. I for one disagree. Pittsburgh's system is not as dependent on the QB to win the game. All that is required of him is to play within the system.
I draw much comparison to this year Steelers team, and the Superbowl winning Ravens team. The key to the Ravens success was of course talent/coaching, ball control, great defense, and not giving the game away (very similar to this years Steelers team). Dilfer wasn’t exactly a world-beater, but he played within the system, didn’t play beyond his ability, or was asked to do so. In my view, the difference that stands out the most between the superbowl Ravens and the Steelers, is that Pittsburgh has more talent on the offensive side of the ball. (I will concede that Baltimore’s D was better, however slight)
I agree with you Deb, this game should go over the 35 point total.
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RIPPER
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Some local perspective here guys -
The Jets gave the Steelers some fits in the first game with a defensive alignment they had not seen. Many comments from the Steelers indicated that it took them until late into the 3rd quarter to make the adjustments and then they took over the game with two TD's in the 4th quarter. They said the Jets have been using the same defense in many of their games since. Basically, the defense was a unique alignment featuring an 8th man in the box designed to stop the run. The Steelers seem to have solved that defense that day and there will be one HUGE addition to the Steelers offense that they did not have that game - Plexico Burress. The Steelers go from a tough, ball-control, running team to a tough, ball control running team that is really dangerous and can beat you through the air as well with Plex (ie. NE/Philly games).
On the other side of the ball, CB Deshea Townsend will play with a cast on his hand, Willie Williams remains the other starter despite the return of Chad Scott who will now play nickel back. Scott looked good against Buffalo so if Townsend is ineffective, I think he can step in and do quite well.
Guys, I am one of those naturally skeptical fans who just kept waiting for the Steelers to lose this year and yet they kept on winning. We have a recent history of failing in the playoffs but they usually wait till the AFC Championship for that(must be a PA thing). I am not wagering on this game because I almost never bet for or against my team but I am hard pressed to find reasons to back the Jets.
The Jets gave the Steelers some fits in the first game with a defensive alignment they had not seen. Many comments from the Steelers indicated that it took them until late into the 3rd quarter to make the adjustments and then they took over the game with two TD's in the 4th quarter. They said the Jets have been using the same defense in many of their games since. Basically, the defense was a unique alignment featuring an 8th man in the box designed to stop the run. The Steelers seem to have solved that defense that day and there will be one HUGE addition to the Steelers offense that they did not have that game - Plexico Burress. The Steelers go from a tough, ball-control, running team to a tough, ball control running team that is really dangerous and can beat you through the air as well with Plex (ie. NE/Philly games).
On the other side of the ball, CB Deshea Townsend will play with a cast on his hand, Willie Williams remains the other starter despite the return of Chad Scott who will now play nickel back. Scott looked good against Buffalo so if Townsend is ineffective, I think he can step in and do quite well.
Guys, I am one of those naturally skeptical fans who just kept waiting for the Steelers to lose this year and yet they kept on winning. We have a recent history of failing in the playoffs but they usually wait till the AFC Championship for that(must be a PA thing). I am not wagering on this game because I almost never bet for or against my team but I am hard pressed to find reasons to back the Jets.
