Fore! 2014

[lostinamerica]

Wells Fargo:

Outrights:

Russell Henley(100/1) e.w.
Bill Haas(50/1) e.w.
Brendon De Jonge(125/1) e.w.
Jason Kokrak(80/1) e.w.
- - Taking those four on the basis of (i) last year's research, (ii) this year's prices, (iii) last year's less than satisfying attainments by each in this spot, and (iv) notwithstanding landing Bubba at Augusta, a fairly desperate need by moi for something different.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

The Championship:

Outrights:

Kiradech Aphibarnrat(22/1) e.w.
Felipe Aguilar(80/1) e.w.
Robert-Jan Derksen(80/1) e.w.
Prayad Marksaeng(100/1) e.w.
Soren Kjeldsen(150/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Wells Fargo:

Outrights:

Adding . . .

Lee Westwood(16/1) e.w.
Martin Kaymer(125/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(125/1) e.w.
Stuart Appleby(150/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Mixing things up during the course of my wasted season to date, I'll post some mid-season ODDS and ENDS; I wish I had time for ten good ones, but I'll try to come up with maybe four good ones.

(1) In capping for this week, I at least had some opinions taking shape in my mind, which is more than I can say for too many weeks this season . . . Taking just one player for starters, on Wednesday I was committed to the idea in my capping that Jonathan Byrd might play well, but he's not ready to step up and win this week, nor is Robert freaking Allenby; a shock winner would be Kevin Streelman or Jason Kokrak. But I concluded I would not be surprised if it turned out Stewart Cink got up there and was then capable when he did, it was just that I didn't have enough slots to play Cink again this week. But Martin Kaymer, finding flashes of his best stuff at Augusta (of all places), and then building on it, seemed a standout as a "Precursor of the Week" (or month) on my radar, with the vexing Anders Hansen also throwing down a marker. My big mistake for the week was deliberately plucking Lee Westwood as my short-priced choice over Justin Rose, but not even coming close to doing my homework, and upon seeing the Rose/Westwood/Mickelson pairing under way after the off, I immediately said I want to take that back, and have Rose over the other two. . . After Angel Cabrera shined on Day 1, I was not happy to then see he was coming off a second place finish, because this week's "Big Boy" venue, like a Wentworth, asking for all the elements of your game in major championship proportions, is certainly right up his street; add that streaky swing in which the timing can be way off or powerfully dialed in, and I took on some additional distress today when I saw El Pato stalking the lead with some of his obvious menace . . . Anyway, I feel like I have three names right in the mix for one of the few times this season, and I'll go on and say I would be shocked if Robert-Jan Derksen didn't play like a quality veteran on Saturday (Sunday will be a whole 'nother matter, regardless of Saturday); Kaymer is playing so well that he should certainly creep up the leaderboard or at least tread water on Saturday, and then relish getting in the mix on Sunday; and it's actually Felipe Aguillar that I have a good feeling about for this weeks danger, although he could also be the one Saturday stinker . . . Well, I rarely talk at all about my plays in-running, but I just served up a pasel of odds and ends under one banner . . . And let's go ahead and mention Geoff Ogilvy, who I played last week for a New Orleans debacle, but in whom I saw back on Wednesday more Cink than Byrd at this moment in time, and he probably has to get a decent look for The Players. And it was a whimsical treat following the scoreboard today as Brendon De Jonge carried my cash on a ride from 80 to 62.

(2) When I heard the name Pat Perez mentioned, I formed the immediate impression that fits as a ripe possibility for Sawgrass 2014 in just a little bitty one week. I then promptly went and looked at his record at Sawgrass, and saw stuff very representative of the type of numbers I like to see for a player that may have his crowning moment at The Players. The backstory fits, and I'll be a big fan starting Thursday.

(3) GLover is maybe playing with some guts as his putter crushes the life out of nearly every round he plays, early and often, the four putt from five feet the other day was just another ribbon on the package that has been the story of his season. And he's not playing very professional, the way he carves up way too many big numbers that are not all just down to putting and such . . . Not close all season, not going to be close until something turns around his putting, and even really nothing yet suggesting his best stuff, just maybe some guts to my liking.

(4) No question I haven't done enough of any of my three capping keys this season, which are, in order of importance for actually landing those elusive fish: (a) tracking tournament activity in real time on the leaderboards, and getting a feel for dozens of players: (b) watching the telecasts, and the highlights, and the commentary, and catching the backstories and the flashes (to form an opinion on where their game is really at) and the nuggets; and (c) actual hard research, scouring, capping, reading, digging, grinding . . . At least tonight I was interested. The Game's Not Gone.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

we$$$ . . . just waking up.

Mixing things up during the course of my wasted season to date, I'll post . . .

Anyway, I feel like I have three names right in the mix for one of the few times this season, and I'll go on and say . . .

it's actually Felipe Aguillar that I have a good feeling about for this weeks danger . . .

Well, I rarely talk at all about my plays in-running, but I just served up a pasel of odds and ends . . .

At least tonight I was interested. The Game's Not Gone.

Same venue I experienced a real high on when I capped Nick Dougherty for his first win in 2005. My memory of the course from that run by Dougherty in 2005, 2006 and 2007 was the crux of how I built my squad for this week (hell, I almost included Peter Lawrie at 300/1) . . . I like me some Laguna National.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Madeira Islands Open:

Outrights:

Peter Lawrie(125/1) e.w.
Rhys Davies(33/1) e.w.
Jose Manuel Lara(100/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

I'll start with a "cut and paste" from a portion of my lengthy post on The Players from last year . . .

ODDS and ENDS:

(C) Three ANGLES are always my starting point for capping The Players: (1) From my 2006 notes:"Only four players have won more than once on the Stadium Course. Tiger Woods credits the diversity to "the nature of the design." "How Pete (Dye) designed it with the cutoff bunkers and the mounding that it just brings all of us together,” said Woods, who hasn’t earned a top-10 at The Players since his 2001 triumph. “We're all hitting the balls to the same spots. A lot of times for the longer hitters, it's 3-wood or 2-iron or some kind of utility club off the tees where the shorter guys are hitting drivers, so we're all in the same spot. With that in mind, it becomes a second shot course and see who can hit their irons the best and put themselves in positions where they can make putts.”"; (2) Even when you can find a few golfers that really seem to like the place (Stephen Ames or Ben Crane or Luke Donald as possible examples), the fact is that unlike Augusta or the U.S. Open which have some well-defined specialists, almost everyone has a spotty record at Sawgrass. In addition, it's a venue that definitely favors champions with some experience, including at least one good turn through the championship on their CV. On the other side of the coin, although there are some players who really love Sawgrass (being few and far between), you get the sense there is no shortage of players the venue just does not suit, and their record reflects it . . . I think other cappers have spotted similar trend lines and offered similar takes, and one set of observations I particularly like in 2012 and 2011: "7/10 winners International players,Ball strikers track,Bermuda Greens,course form does not seem that important,whilst being in decent current form does with the places littered with players with Good recent finishes,Winners have had Multiple runs at the course,Power not an issue,Total Accuracy has been a key stat . . . since 2003, the average number of starts for a winner before he broke through at THE PLAYERS was 7.57. (That included two-time champion, Davis Love III -- 1992, 2003 -- whose first triumph came in his seventh appearance.) Lo and behold, Tim Clark supported the theory that experience matters at TPC Sawgrass, as he emerged victorious in what was his eighth start"; and (3) I really don't have much of a problem swerving prices on the top tier of market leaders . . . and if they get it done, more power to them..

Outrights:

Fracesco Molinari(125/1) e.w.
- - His game has been in great shape for months, his strongest close of the season came in his last event, he's fresh, and he's chomping at the bit to get just a taste of some of the heights that his game has him on the cusp of, IMO. His game still has it's obvious weakness, but this Big International stage which is maybe not too big is at a venue on which his strengths give him something of a brilliant opportunity, IMO. Stephen Ames and David Toms didn't feel that much righter than this, really.

Pat Perez(125/1) e.w.
- -

When I heard the name Pat Perez mentioned (before Wells Fargo), I formed the immediate impression that fits as a ripe possibility for Sawgrass 2014 in just a little bitty one week. I then promptly went and looked at his record at Sawgrass, and saw stuff very representative of the type of numbers I like to see for a player that may have his crowning moment at The Players. The backstory fits, and I'll be a big fan starting Thursday.

Zach Johnson(33/1) e.w.
- - His game went off the crazy boil it was on, but IMO he's been tracking for one or more big moments of opportunity somewhere in his 2014 campaign, and this spot was always a leading candidate, before he conveniently dropped a fairly sharp precursor on to his resume last week.

Luke Donald(25/1) e.w.
- - His price is crap, but I really think there's a decent chance he's a distinct threat.

Jim Furyk(28/1) e.w.
- - He's been tracking on my radar for this big opportunity, and a late run last week was more exhilarating than exhausting. But this crap price is the crappiest price I've invested in all season.

J. B. Holmes(70/1) e.w.
- - It's a long grind this week to just get to Sunday, and then it only ratchets up to close the deal, so an exhausting effort last week is crap for preparation . . . What this play needs is to feature a winning marker from last week that I was letting ride for another week, then I would feel really good about the value of this play.

Lucas Glover(300/1) e.w.
- - Not going to be close until something turns around his putting.


I could stop there, or I could go on. I decided to go on.


Thomas Bjorn(125/1) e.w.
- - His price is now pretty much crap, but the slayer of demons has rode his game to some remarkably rich experiences of late, so why not upward until it crashes.

Russell Knox(125/1) e.w.
- - I'm in my first stretch of the season involving several weeks of what I can characterize as something close to some serious effort in my capping, and this is a name and a backstory that emerged from nowhere vis-a-vis my short list or my long list, so I said pull the trigger and see what comes of it.

Graeme McDowell(66/1) e.w.
- - It feels like I'm forcing this play, because he seems a danger to get in the mix, but I don't think his game is on the cusp of the immaculate level that will see him across the finish line.

Ian Poulter(66/1) e.w.
- - It feels like I'm forcing this play, because I think he thinks he's ready to strut like a peacock, but I'm not at all convinced this is some great moment in time when he should be carrying my cash.


I'll finish with a "cut and paste" from a portion of my lengthy post on The Players from last year . . .

(D) The Players championship IMO closely resembles the four majors in some significant attributes when it comes to capping, including my focus and approach of trying to track players for weeks or even months heading in for their chances of peaking at this extra large event. And when play begins, you better know the players will have a long week of grinding in front of them . . . Now this year I join SBI in having an exceptionally large short list, and while I feel I've done a decent job of finding names I'm really comfortable dropping, it was a really long list(!) when I started on Sunday morning. . . And in another similarity with the majors, it's a fact I have a far better capping record in the four majors and The Players than I do in the week-in-and-week-out of the regular tours (although the U.S. PGA is the exception in that run of success)(oops, until 2013, when I landed Dufner and Furyk and Stenson and Scott), quite possibly because of the effort I give, but I think it's based more on a solid catechism of knowing what I like (and don't particularly like) around each of those events.

And when these events roll around, crap prices would never, I mean never, deter me from going with what I like.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

740/1 e.w. Scratch 300/1. lol

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Byron Nelson:

Outrights:

Jimmy Walker(18/1) e.w.
Charl Schwartzel(25/1) e.w.
Paul Casey(50/1) e.w.
Angel Cabrera(100/1) e.w.
Justin Leonard(140/1) e.w.
David Duval(400/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

BMW PGA Championship:

Outrights:

Justin Rose(12/1) e.w.
Ross Fisher(45/1) e.w.
George Coetzee(100/1) e.w.
Retief Goosen(100/1) e.w.
Danny Willett(70/1) e.w.
Tommy Fleetwood(80/1) e.w.
Francesco Molinari(22/1) e.w.
Niclas Fasth(300/1) e.w.
David Howell(200/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial:

Outrights:

Graham Delaet(28/1) e.w.
Ryan Palmer(40/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(250/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Memorial:

Outrights:

Phil Mickelson(28/1) e.w.
Gary Woodland(33/1) e.w.
Ryan Moore(50/1) e.w.
Russell Henley(80/1) e.w.
K.J. Choi(80/1) e.w.
Vijay Singh(250/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(350/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Principal:

Outrights:

Michael Allen(16/1) e.w.
Rocco Mediate(40/1) e.w.
Mark O'Meara(45/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Nordea Masters:

In-running:

Niclas Fasth(150/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

FedEx St. Jude Classic:

Outrights:

Robert Garrigus(55/1) e.w.
Fredrik Jacobson(50/1) e.w.
Justin Leonard(125/1) e.w.
John Senden(33/1) e.w.
Ben Martin(80/1) e.w.
Jonathan Byrd(150/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

U.S. Open:

Outrights:

Sergio Garcia(35/1) e.w.
- - I've been tracking Sergio for this spot as much or more than I've been tracking any player for any major this season, and what he's said and done in the 23 weeks or so of 2014, and what I've seen and heard about Pinehurst over the same period, has been of a piece with my thinking . . . I won't be abandoning my commitment.

Geoff Ogilvy(250/1) e.w.
- - It's been a while since his heyday, but back when, the first concern with Ogilvy IMO was always what might happen when he strayed with his less than elite accuracy off the tee, when he would aim down the center, and have a fairly equal propensity for missing right or left. I don't know the state of his game or what he's working on these days, but the driving equation here and the big moment staging and the somewhat Royal Melbourne like short game demands this week are all up his street when at his best, and I swear there's been a little flicker there this season . . . Simply put, taking a flyer on a value loser.

Jason Day(28/1) e.w.
- - Lightly raced is my concern, otherwise he's a must, knowing what I think I know about what it will take to seriously threaten here.

Phil Mickelson(18/1) e.w.
- - Hard to believe that since 2002 I've at least broke even with my e.w. wagers on Lefty in the U.S. Open, but he's kept carrying my cash and he's been that good (the only time I think I held my nose and made the play anyway was in 2008 at Torrey Pines, when he was paired with Tiger (not what I wanted) and he decided a driver was an unnecessary luxury, the dipshit). This year there is too much focus given he's not hit his stride all season, and at best I think he's 1/2 on the right track (visualization/imagination) and 1/2 on the wrong track (the claw) with his putting game plan, and it's looking like the bad Phil off the tee (talking about how he's driving it well and will be going after it hard and aggressive off the tee (this is not Augusta and it is SO HARD to execute that game plan under the gun of a U.S, Open grind)), so I don't know how or why it happens, but count me on board.

Victor Dubuisson(90/1) e.w.
Jonas Blixt(80/1) e.w.
Stephen Gallacher(140/1) e.w.
- - They sort of possess what I'm looking for.

Lucas Glover(500/1) e.w.
- - Ugh.

Jim Furyk(40/1) e.w.
Luke Donald(40/1) e.w.
- - Adding one more. Turned out to be two more.

David Gossett(400/1) e.w. First Round Leader
- - Absolutely my favorite specialty market EVER (Masters debutante is my next favorite), and while I have a few success stories in the first round at The Open and The Masters, I've never landed anything with this true favorite of mine . . . Since I don't feel I have a good read on anything less speculative, I'll take a real leap off the cliff instead.

GL

 

[MattyMatt]

Good luck this weekend. I see the "ugh" beside Lucas at 500-1. Funny stat about Lucas (he's from my hometown and plays out of the same Country Club) is that he has lived his entire life less than 3 hrs away from Pinehurst and has never played Course #2. Plus his game just hasn't been the same after the divorce and all, although it has been some time. Would love to see him have a great finish here.

Enjoy the golf. Should be very competitive.

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:


Travelers:

Camilo Villegas(125/1) e.w.
Danny Lee(200/1) e.w.
Brooks Koepka(50/1) e.w.


U.S. Women's Open

Michelle Wie(16/1) e.w.
Angela Stanford(50/1) e.w.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

BMW:

Outrights:

Simon Dyson(80/1) e.w.
Thomas Aiken(100/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Quicken Loans:

Outrights:

Robert Garrigus(80/1) e.w.
Angel Cabrera(100/1) e.w.
Billy Horschel(40/1) e.w.
Sang-Moon Bae(150/1) e.w.

GL