Football teaser analysis

[ATX]

numbers do tend to get sharper as the season progresses for more than one reason.

how many teams have won but did not cover an NFL game this year?

on how many would a teaser have helped?

teasers are parlays, they just dont pay sh**, pardon my fritch. There ARE places to use them, but it is complicated. You need to have a VERY strong number in which the event will land within three of this number at a high percentage. Arriving at this distribution is very complicated for me to explain, but I'll give examples down the road (I hope) like I did in the NBA playoffs. Often the number moves enough for a middle to be far more profitable in these situations than a teaser, even if a point is bought.

Just my thoughts, there are teaser players out there who can offer much more than me, but usually these types dont say much.

 

[jimmyk+]

lookin forward to any future thoughts u might hv on this topic...........btw, who are these "types" and why are they so quiet ..........

 

[Cache22]

The best book I've read on the teasers subject is called "Win More--Lose Less!" by Don Peszynski. He breaks down which teasers are successful in certain situations and which are not. He also tackles parlays, hedging and middling. Gambler's bookstore has it.

 

[dimeplayersonly]

at the risk of offending some.................



teaser players as a "rule" are squares..........


syndicates...dont play teasers


i would ask some people i know who have been moving on foots (or at least gambling) for 50years what they thought about teasers...........but i dont want to be laughed at...........


imo.....any literature on teasers is = to probability on #'s in the game of craps............numbers thats all..........

 

[jimmyk+]

i think anybody who does not at least CONSIDER using teaser plays as a way of moving on/off KEY numbers , is not taking advantage of sharp #'s............i have ALWAYS considered teasers as 'SUCKER" bets , and in fact, had never made one b4 last year................but after tracking 2-team (only) results on games at or near key numbers , i've found some real profit......granted, plays are few and far between due to the nature of the bet , but i have gone 21-12 (including 4-1 this year) not a significant sample but .......if it aint broke, dont fix it .............i think the company line that "teasers are ALL sucker plays" shld at least be reexamined as they apply to certain situations...........selectivity/solid numbers the key.......

 

[BigGamesOnly]

I agree with you jimmyk. I think a lot of people look at a certain subset of betting, whether it be teasers, parlays, etc. and find that they lose in the long-run. But those numbers are based upon bettors who are not knowledgeable enough to use those subsets in special circumstances.

People used to say Blackjack couldn't be beat because the house has an advantage. That was before card-counting came into effect. I'm starting to wonder if some subsets of betting may be profitable in special circumstances for the knowledgeable bettor.

 

[jimmyk+]

early teaser play for week 5...........open for discussion.............. NYG+5/TITANS+5 110/100.......

 

[dimeplayersonly]

JIMMYK...............no argument on your replies...........



what you have to understand is, you still have to win TWO(2) seperate games or at least seperate lines (side-total of same game.......


that fact alone (winning two seperate bets) is what makes teasers difficult to capitalize on........

 

[jimmyk+]

agreed , which in essence, makes the bet a bad paying parlay................but i think if you can wait for the spots, there ARE value plays here during the course of the season....still, that being said, i would never expose more than 5-7% of my toatal wagers over the entire season to these plays.....typically 85% of my total play during the year is straight action ..........only reason i've given this any (re)consideration is that in a town like Vegas , where they take any and all action for the most part, this bet is hard to find anywhere in Vegas and if found, they are charging too much juice........any bet the man wont book rouses the curiousity...........would think if it was such a bad bet it would be easier to find..............

 

[dimeplayersonly]

cant speak for why alot of shops in vegas, dont do teasers anymore.......but to say its because teasers have become profitable for the player and they are beating the house to death........imo...no


maybe more like...they just dont generate enough action anymore
maybe somewhere in between.....i dunno

 

[mhk]

The only way I have seen teasers hit for any length of time is home favs-3 down to +3. (I think ATX or someone else basically said the same thing).. Two teamers at even money. But even then, you will find a winning teaser would have won as a parlay outright, costing you $$$.

 

[ATX]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>you will find a winning teaser would have won as a parlay outright, costing you $$$. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

my thoughts exactly.

since the team that covers the spread wins the game 84% of the time, teasers dont have much value. The only example I have seen is the home team around 3, but I do better with straights. That is the real issue: how do you do individually with teasers vs. straight betting? If you do better with teasers go for it, but I doubt you will. I see it the same way as dime, they are parlays that dont pay s***.

 

[Oren1]

ATX, you ever play parlays?

 

[ATX]

yeah, all the time

not for nearly as much as straight plays usually.

I usually play 3 teamers, but I also parlay dog ml's ever so often. I do it more locally than offshore, some books will show you the door if you hit more than a couple of these. I like parlays more in the NBA than anything else, I'll probably try it in MLB next year. Last year I did well with quite a few parlays early in the NBA season taking home teams parlayed to the under/over depending on their particular strength. A lot of guys will tell you that parlays are really dumb bets, but IMO there are places to use them. I think there are plenty of games where if one team covers the spread then the over/under is more likely to go a certain way. My point being that if you like both the home team and the under, but the other team covers the over is more likely in some games. Instead of risking 1% on both the over and under each, some people would rather minimize their exposure and parlay the two for 1% (which adds higher return at the same time). Their are lots of differing opinions on this, fwiw I thought the SC/KENT game was correlated in this way. I thought that if SC covered the under would hit as a function of their containment of KEN defensively. I held off on SC and took the under which I felt was the stronger of the two, sure enough KEN got the backdoor pushing the total over as well. A lot of times I feel that the favorite and the UNDER is the correlation --- not the typical favorite to the over. It just depends on a lot of things about the teams. If I lost on parlays I would quit throwing money away on them. I just have fun with them more than anything else, but I do use parlays as strong plays every once in a while. You dont hear about too many bettors using strictly parlays....

 

[Oren1]

I don't do too bad with 2 teamers, usually taking 2 sides in the NFL since I'm terrible with totals. I don't think I've ever hit a 3 teamer, usually my modest knowledge of the game only gives me an edge on maybe 2 games a week. Playoffs could have been good for me last year with parlays, if I hadn't taken the Giants ML instead of Giants +2 in the Niner game that they gave up the 28 point lead and lost by one point. Greed killed me on that one. I hit another one though, the divisional playoff week I think 3 of the 4 favs covered, I had Tampa and the Raiders in a parlay, fading the Jets bandwagoneers for a decent payoff. But then losing with the Raiders against Tampa didn't help. So far my experince has been even if not up in parlays, and down with teasers. The teaser wins don't net you enough to cover your losses, at least in my experience. Once in a while though you do see a special ocasion where offsetting the over/under numer does look very promising and then a side pops out at you as well, and it feels like easy money, but then afdter that you try one that you're not so sure of, lose, and you're down.

 

[Oren1]

"I don't do too bad with 2 teamers" (parlays)