Football Ducky Style - March

[Duckstabber]

March 8th: > -1 unit
UEFA Champions League:
Arsenal pk v Real Madrid, 1.952 @ Pinnacle > Push
Liverpool -1 v Benfica, 2.00 @ Bet365 > -1 unit

YTD: 45-39, +5.9955 units


Adding:

March 11th:

Germany, Bundeliga:

Duisburg v Hannover pk, 2.00 @ Pointbet

Köln v Nürnberg: Over 2.5, 1.86 @ Pinnacle

Mainz -0.25 v Mönchengladbach, 2.02 @ Mansion

Stuttgart v Dortmund: Under 2.5, 1.80 @ Mansion

Wolfsburg +0.75 v Bayern München, 1.86 @ Pointbet



Pending:

March 11th:
England, Premier League:
Bollton v West Ham +0.5, 1.901 @ Pinnacle
Germany, Bundesliga:
Werder Bremen -0.75 v Hertha Berlin, 1.833 @ Mansion
Duisburg v Hannover pk, 2.00 @ Pointbet
Köln v Nürnberg: Over 2.5, 1.86 @ Pinnacle
Mainz -0.25 v Mönchengladbach, 2.02 @ Mansion
Stuttgart v Dortmund: Under 2.5, 1.80 @ Mansion
Wolfsburg +0.75 v Bayern München, 1.86 @ Pointbet
Denmark, Superliga:
Aarhus GF -0.5 v Sønderjyske, 2.00 @ Nordicbet / Scandic Bookmakers

March 12th:
Spain, Primera Division:
Alaves v Sevilla pk, 1.885 @ Pinnacle
Mallorca pk v Villarreal, 2.15 @ Pinnacle
Osasuna v Barcelona -0.5, 1.833 @ Mansion
Germany, Bundesliga:
Schalke -1 v Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.725 @ Pinnacle

 

[JackDee]

Good luck my friend, big card for the weekend I see.

 

[Duckstabber]

March 11th: > +0.54 units
England, Premier League:
Bollton v West Ham +0.5, 1.901 @ Pinnacle > -1 unit
Germany, Bundesliga:
Werder Bremen -0.75 v Hertha Berlin, 1.833 @ Mansion -1 unit
Duisburg v Hannover pk, 2.00 @ Pointbet > Push
Köln v Nürnberg: Over 2.5, 1.86 @ Pinnacle > +0.86 units
Mainz -0.25 v Mönchengladbach, 2.02 @ Mansion +1.02 units
Stuttgart v Dortmund: Under 2.5, 1.80 @ Mansion > +0.8 units
Wolfsburg +0.75 v Bayern München, 1.86 @ Pointbet > +0.86 units
Denmark, Superliga:
Aarhus GF -0.5 v Sønderjyske, 2.00 @ Nordicbet / Scandic Bookmakers > -1 unit

March 12th: > -1.275 units
Spain, Primera Division:
Alaves v Sevilla pk, 1.885 @ Pinnacle > -1 unit
Mallorca pk v Villarreal, 2.15 @ Pinnacle > Push
Osasuna v Barcelona -0.5, 1.833 @ Mansion > -1 unit
Germany, Bundesliga:
Schalke -1 v Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.725 @ Pinnacle > +0.725 units

YTD: 50-44, +5.2605 units

 

[Duckstabber]

Adding:

March 18th

Germany, Bundesliga:
Bayer Leverkusen -0.75 v Mainz, 1.98 @ Pinnacle


Pending:

March 18th
Germany, Bundesliga:
Bayer Leverkusen -0.75 v Mainz, 1.98 @ Pinnacle

 

[Duckstabber]

Adding:

March 19th

Spain, Primera Division:
Real Madrid -1.25 v Real Betis, 1.98 @ Pinnacle


Pending:

March 18th
Germany, Bundesliga:
Bayer Leverkusen -0.75 v Mainz, 1.98 @ Pinnacle

March 19th
Spain, Primera Division:
Real Madrid -1.25 v Real Betis, 1.98 @ Pinnacle

 

[JackDee]

duck, is the midweek game for betis swaying you towards the real madrid?

 

[Duckstabber]

Jack,

The midweek game for Betis is also a factor but other than that:

- Madrid score on average 1 goal more than their opponents at home.
- Madrid against bottom half teams: 11-1-3, 33-10 (Home and away)
- Madrid last 5 at home: 5-0-0, 16-4
- Betis loses on average by 1.07 goals away.
- Betis against top half teams: 4-1-10, 11-23 (Home and away)
- Betis last 5 away: 1-1-3, 7-11

Plus Madrid still have a chance to catch Barcelona so they'll be motivated. (As will Betis, of course). After crunching these numbers I found decent value in Real Madrid -1.25 @ 1.98. (I should've waited until Monday though because Mansion opened at 2.05. They got hit though and are now below 1.98.) Who do you like in this game, Jack?

 

[Duckstabber]

Adding:

March 18th

Germany, Bundesliga:

Mönchengladbach v Stuttgart +0.25, 1.84 @ Pinnacle


Pending:

March 18th
Germany, Bundesliga:
Bayer Leverkusen -0.75 v Mainz, 1.98 @ Pinnacle
Mönchengladbach v Stuttgart +0.25, 1.84 @ Pinnacle

March 19th
Spain, Primera Division:
Real Madrid -1.25 v Real Betis, 1.98 @ Pinnacle

 

[JackDee]

thanks duck, those figures are very convincing, as well as the motivation herein which goes opposites ways, Real Madrid still aiming at the championship, and Bettis possibly considering this as a look ahead situation, the absences report is always a very important factor for me and I haven't looked into it yet. Emotion, for good or bad, plays a role in my decisions, and there are teams that emotionally I don't feel very comfortable betting, Real Madrid being one of them, perhaps one of the teams I find the most aversive to bet, after the numerous flukes they 've managed in the past few years. But that's just me you know. If Madrid score early, I can easily see Bettis letting this one go. So, to sum up, all in all If I had to chose I 'd probably take Madrid.

There's another thing, lately I ve been going through a statistical so to speak phase and I feel less and less comfortable betting (unless I have a good qualitative grasp of both teams) on my various rules and rationalizations unless I can backupit up by having a good sample of games analyzed statistically from a database, which of course I don't have for the time being to query, as I hinted in another thread. It's actually my next project, god willing and equally importantly time permitting, to eventually put together a decent database to query and use as a statistically based means of prediction, and use my qualitative, empirical judgement as an adjunct. That of course is copious work, I am already reading a lot of academic papers on forecasting, and more on databases and database modelling and design, but unfortunately I have everything but time to devote to this, and it does require ones absolute focus and commitment. If you want to email me at jackdee@mail.gr about all that, I don't think it would be proper to go into any more details here, I usually take some time to check the mailbox but sooner rather than later I do.

 

[Duckstabber]

March 18th

Denmark, Superliga:

Silkeborg v Brøndby -0.5, 1.80 @ Mansion


Pending:

March 18th
Germany, Bundesliga:
Bayer Leverkusen -0.75 v Mainz, 1.98 @ Pinnacle
Mönchengladbach v Stuttgart +0.25, 1.84 @ Pinnacle
Denmark, Superliga:
Silkeborg v Brøndby -0.5, 1.80 @ Mansion

March 19th
Spain, Primera Division:
Real Madrid -1.25 v Real Betis, 1.98 @ Pinnacle

 

[Duckstabber]

Adding:

March 18th

Germany, Bundesliga:

Dortmund v Kaiserslautern +0.75, 1.926 @ Pinnacle

Hannover -0.75 v Köln, 2.00 @ Bet365

Spain, Primera Division:

Villarreal v Atletico Madrid +0.25, 1.917 @ Pinnacle


March 19th

Germany, Bundesliga:

Hertha Berlin -0.75 v Bielefeld, 2.02 @ Pointbet

Spain, Primera Division:

Malaga v Real Zaragoza pk, 2.09 @ Pointbet

Cadiz -0.5 v Alavés, 2.09 @ Mansion




Pending:

March 18th
Germany, Bundesliga:
Bayer Leverkusen -0.75 v Mainz, 1.98 @ Pinnacle
Mönchengladbach v Stuttgart +0.25, 1.84 @ Pinnacle
Dortmund v Kaiserslautern +0.75, 1.926 @ Pinnacle
Hannover -0.75 v Köln, 2.00 @ Bet365
Denmark, Superliga:
Silkeborg v Brøndby -0.5, 1.80 @ Mansion
Spain, Primera Division:
Villarreal v Atletico Madrid +0.25, 1.917 @ Pinnacle

March 19th
Spain, Primera Division:
Real Madrid -1.25 v Real Betis, 1.98 @ Pinnacle
Malaga v Real Zaragoza pk, 2.09 @ Pointbet
Cadiz -0.5 v Alavés, 2.09 @ Mansion
Germany, Bundesliga:
Hertha Berlin -0.75 v Bielefeld, 2.02 @ Pointbet

 

[Duckstabber]

Sunday 26th:

Denmark, Superliga:

Aarhus GF v FC Midtjylland pk, 1.81 @ Mansion (2 units)

Viborg v Horsens +0.75, 2.03 @ Mansion

 

[Duckstabber]

Adding:

Saturday 25th:

Germany, Bundesliga:

Köln v Eintracht Frankfurt: Over 2.75 goals, 2.01 @ Mansion

Duisburg v Bayern München: Under 2.75 goals, 1.87 @ Pinnacle



Pending:

Saturday 25th:

Germany, Bundesliga:
Köln v Eintracht Frankfurt: Over 2.75 goals, 2.01 @ Mansion
Duisburg v Bayern München: Under 2.75 goals, 1.87 @ Pinnacle


Sunday 26th:

Denmark, Superliga:
Aarhus GF v FC Midtjylland pk, 1.81 @ Mansion (2 units)
Viborg v Horsens +0.75, 2.03 @ Mansion

 

[Duckstabber]

Saturday 25th:

Spain, Primera Division:

Villarreal -0.5 v Real Betis, 1.90 @ Bet365



Pending:

Saturday 25th:

Germany, Bundesliga:
Köln v Eintracht Frankfurt: Over 2.75 goals, 2.01 @ Mansion
Duisburg v Bayern München: Under 2.75 goals, 1.87 @ Pinnacle
Spain, Primera Division:
Villarreal -0.5 v Real Betis, 1.90 @ Bet365


Sunday 26th:

Denmark, Superliga:
Aarhus GF v FC Midtjylland pk, 1.81 @ Mansion (2 units)
Viborg v Horsens +0.75, 2.03 @ Mansion

 

[chriscol]

what let's you go for an unusual 2 units against your home-team aarhus?

 

[Duckstabber]

what let's you go for an unusual 2 units against your home-team aarhus?

Sorry, Chris, I didn't have time to answer you question before the game. My home team is in it's biggest crisis ever and relegation is very likely this season. But even so they're playing without "heart & will" - I seriously don't think I've seen them play worse in the 20 years I've followed them. On top of that they played against FC Midtjylland a week ago and were completely out-played.
Depressing times here in Aarhus - but I guess you as a Köln supporter know the feeling better than anyone...

 

[Duckstabber]

Adding:

Tuesday 28th:

UEFA Champions League:

Arsenal v Juventus +0.25, 1.885 @ Pinnacle

 

[Duckstabber]

Adding:

Wednesday 29th:

UEFA Champions League:

Lyon v AC Milan +0.25, 1.80 @ Mansion


Pending:

Tuesday 28th:
UEFA Champions League:
Arsenal v Juventus +0.25, 1.885 @ Pinnacle

Wednesday 29th:
UEFA Champions League:
Lyon v AC Milan +0.25, 1.80 @ Mansion

 

[Duckstabber]

Wednesday 29th:

Denmark, Superliga

Silkeborg -0.5 v Aarhus GF, 2.10 @ Scandic

Horsens pk v Esbjerg, 2.24 @ Unibet

FC København -1 v Aalborg, 1.74 @ Unibet


Pending:

Wednesday 29th:
UEFA Champions League:
Lyon v AC Milan +0.25, 1.80 @ Mansion
Denmark, Superliga
Silkeborg -0.5 v Aarhus GF, 2.10 @ Scandic
Horsens pk v Esbjerg, 2.24 @ Unibet
FC København -1 v Aalborg, 1.74 @ Unibet

 

[jwunderdog]

Riding them with you, Lets turn it around TODAY.