Football Analysis & Predictions - Pep004

[Pep004]

Sorry everyone, I didn't post anything for a while, but I believe that some of you were following me anyway.

It has been yet another profitable weekend! Statistics for Ligue 1 are still fabulous! Yield above 21%, win rate almost 63% after 67 picks in this season!


www.fa-p.eu

 

[Pep004]

Not surprised at all what happened yesterday. Well done Juventus. Leaderboard will change Barcelona to an average club shortly, if plenty of things won't change soon. The biggest mistake of the club was to win Champions league in the year, when they had presidential elections...


I wrote short previews, or better to say opinions about both matches here. I won't touch anything. I agree with Notorious, that odds on Real Madrid are ridiculous, while on Atletico match, I think that they will struggle against the team who likes to play in the same way as they do again. If anything, than I would rather try to catch some higher odds here, but.. my advise is to take small stakes. Don't risk too much on those matches as the differences between teams are small, while importance of the match is enormous...

 

[Pep004]

Comment of the round: I have nothing special to say after 100% week. Even if I posted only two official picks, I made 10,6 units of profit and moved stats of Asian handicap market even higher. You can see stats of AH market in the picture bellow, while all other stats are published here!

www.fa-p.eu

 

[Pep004]

Here you can see the post match analysis of last round, which was again profitable one.


April was finished with little bit less than 16 units of profit, with 15 official picks.

 

[Pep004]

"Bad day at the office" this time..


Comment of the round: it's normal that bad days come, and this Saturday was one of those. The only regret I have is that I didn't take a better look to odds on Atletico-Eibar game, but otherwise both stakes for French league were lower so we didn't lose to much. Anyway, even if I can accept the fact that Dijon had a bad day in front of the goal, I cannot believe how Vercoutre was able to save all the chances of Toulouse. You can see some of them in highlights...


I didn't have time to publish official picks for Sunday in right time, so I just published short previews of matches, and all the thoughts were actually correct, so I hope that at least some of you earned some of units back Sunday. My calls were Nantes +1,25, Rennes win (even correct result), and over 2,5 goals on Marseille-Nice match.


You can see whole post match analysis and see a highlights of all analysed matches here: http://www.fa-p.eu/2017/05/post-match-analysis_9.html

 

[Pep004]

Comment of the round: With 5 of 6 correct predictions I can only say that I am very satisfied with all the analysis and results as well. As I've written in post match analysis, Caen-Rennes was my favourite in this weekend as I went against a bookmakers and proved them wrong!

Whole post match analysis here: http://www.fa-p.eu/2017/05/post-match-analysis_15.html

 

[Pep004]

[FONT=&quot]Post match analysis is coming little bit later this time, as I went on vacations right after the last round of Ligue 1.

I need to say that result in Lille really surprised me, but anyway I finished the last round of Ligue 1 in profitable numbers. Mutually it was little bit less than 2 units of profit, which means that I finished the season with 79,14 units of profit! That means that if you were following me with 50 € per unit, you've made 3957,00 € of profit. Unofficially the highest investor in my picks is coming from Bulgaria (unofficially because, he is the highest investor to who I was talking to). He was following my French league analysis with stake of 200,00 € per unit and he made 15828,00 € of profit in this season! I believe that for many of bettors, stakes like this are too high, but don't forget that my average stake is little bit more than 4 units and that total yield is above 22%.

Whole post match analysis here: [/FONT]http://www.fa-p.eu/2017/05/post-match-analysis_30.html

 

[Pep004]

Read the analysis of the season here! Ups and downs, numbers at the end of the season and more...


Thanks for all the support.


- Regards

 

[Pep004]

Dear followers,


HERE you'll be able to follow all the important news about the clubs in the French first league. Page will be updated daily, so till the start of the season it will become a whole preview of L1 - transfers, squads, probable lineups, probable formations, managers, etc.


* As I've mentioned during the last season, after whole year of delivering free analysis with great stats, there will be a subscription from next season on. For more informations, write me on footalyct@gmail.com. Group of subscribers will be limited.

 

[Pep004]

Ligue 1 Conforama 2017/18
All the transfers and friendly matches of L1 teams till today!


http://www.fa-p.eu/p/ligue-1.html


p.s. Groups with subscribers will soon reach the limited number. I want to fill it as soon as possible, that main focus will stay on the league. In first month, subscription is as low as possible. More informations on footalyct@gmail.com

 

[Pep004]

As you know, Ligue 1 is offered only for subscribers (more informations on footalyct@gmail.com), while analysis of other leagues will be offered on the site from time to time!


Subscription is not including only official picks, but also warnings about some matches, where daily bettors are putting stakes on. Yesterdays example:

For example, today everyday bettors will take Marseille and Lille. Both matches were on my list, but after analysis I don't see value in odds. Why?


- Marseille will play important match on Thursday and their mind is there as they have goals in Europe competition. First match ended with 1-1, so they are in good position, but still not perfect one. Angers have shown that they won't be easy to beat this season. There is no value in odds under 1,80.
- Lille will beat Caen in possession for sure. Wouldn't be surprise to see more than 65% of possession on their side, but Caen is team who won't try to get possession. They will have few attacks over flanks with crosses in the box and Santini will be big problem of Bielsa's box. Same counts for set-pieces, where Lille isn't too strong. If Lille won't have good conversion rate, then I wouldn't put my money on them under 1,90.

As I started season very carefully, number of picks in August was really low and I am offering September for promotional price as well. If you are interested, write me on footalyct@gmail.com and I will forward you monthly and seasonal plan, which will convince you to join the group.


Regards!

 

[Pep004]

[FONT=&quot]Transfer window is closed and Ligue 1 lost some great players. Anyway, thanks to PSG from this season on, Ligue 1 will have one of the best players in the world - Brazilian magician Neymar. After a magnificent season of Monaco it was pretty clear that European giants will attack them from all sides. It's true that they lost some important players, but they invested in future with smart signings and we can expect them fighting for highest places again. Plenty of changes happened in Nice, Bordeaux, Rennes and especially in Lille, where Bielsa started his "era" with bringing in several hot prospects. Another team who earned a lot during this transfer window is Lyon, who invested in future as well. Opposite happened in Marseille as they added some experienced players. Some eyebrows were raised about transfer activity in Nantes, Montpellier and Metz.[/FONT]

Big spenders! PSG, Monaco, Lyon, Marseille, Lille.
[FONT=&quot]- Neymar who has joined PSG this summer is most expensive footballer in history. Of course Neymar wasn't the only new superstar in the team. Besides full backs Yuri Berchiche and experienced Dani Alves, PSG loaned Kylian Mbappe from Monaco. All in all 238 million euros![/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]- As mentioned, Monaco lost few important players but they spent more than 100 millions for Yuri Tielemans (Anderlecht), Stevan Jovetić (Inter Milan), Keita Balde (Lazio), Adama Diakhaby (Rennes), Kongolo (Feyenoord) and Meité (Zulte Waregem). [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]- Lyon invested in future as well. Except experienced target man Marcelo (Besiktas), they bought young promising players as Bertrand Traore (Chelsea), Mariano Diaz (Real Madrid), Kenny Tete (Ajax), Marçal (Guingamp), Ferland Mendy (Le Havre) and Diop (Celta Vigo) and spent 48,5 million euros.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]- Marseille's plans were slightly different as they added experienced players as Luiz Gustavo (Wolfsburg), Adil Rami (Sevilla), Valere Germain (Monaco), Kostas Mitroglou (Benfica), Steve Mandanda (Crystal Palace), Aymen Abdennour (Valencia), while one and only little bit younger player is Jordan Amavi (Aston Villa). All together they spent 42 million euros.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]- Lille spent 58 million euros for bunch of young talents! [/FONT]

New projects...
[FONT=&quot]- First of all we need to mention Lille here. With several hot prospects in the team Bielsa will try to do his magic, but as competition is pretty high this season, his job will be far from easy. For promising players as Thiago Maia (Santos), Nicolas Pepe (Angers), Kevin Malcuit (Saint-Etienne), Thiago Mendes and Luiz Araujo (Sao Paulo) Lille needed to pay more than 50 million euros. All in all they added no less than 13 players to the group! [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]- We have plenty of new faces in Nice as well. After they lost some key players, they tried to replaced them and most known player who joined the team is Wesley Sneijder (Galatasaray). [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]- We can be sure that Oscar Garcia will try to change defensive minded Saint-Etienne and players who joined them: Assane Diousse (Empoli), Loïs Diony (Dijon), Remy Cabella (Marseille) are suitable for his way of football. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]- Bordeuax started new season with high hopes as they brought Benoit Costill (Rennes), Cafu (Ludogorets), Lerager (Zulte Waregem), De Preville (Lille). Even though the most important news for the club was that Brazilian talent Malcom stayed in the club.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]- After departure of Conceiçao, Nantes agreed with experienced Claudio Ranieri, but as it seems new coach isn't really happy with the way how the transfer window ended. They added some players to the squad as Ciprian Tatarusanu (Fiorentina), El Ghannasy (Oostende), Rene Krhin (Granada), Nicolas Pallois (Bordeaux), Andrei Girotto (Chapecoense), Kalifa Coulibaly (KAA Gent), Joris Kayembe and Chidozie Awaziem (Porto), but main problem stays in attack. Who can be a quality goalscorer of this team?[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]- Team who had a pretty decent transfer window is Toulouse. Finalising the deal with Corentin Jean (Monaco) and adding Yaya Sanogo (Arsenal) and experienced Giannelli Imbula (Stoke) and Max-Alain Gradel (Bournemouth).[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]- Of course we need to add Lyon here, as they have started this season with bunch of new players in first eleven and PSG as well as they brought a new key player to the team.[/FONT]

Ligue 1 will miss bunch of quality players...
[FONT=&quot]As mention on start, some clubs had decent seasons and their key players weren't unnoticed. Biggest fear was in the team of Monaco, where big European clubs were aiming on players as Bernardo Silva, Benjamin Mendy, Timoue Bakayoko, Kylian Mbappe, Djibril Sidibe, Thomas Lemar, Fabinho,... Even though it looked that they will loose all of them, they lost "only four of them". Benjamin Mendy (57,5 million euros) and Bernardo Silva (50 million euros) signed for Manchester City; Timoue Bakayoko (45 million euros) for Chelsea, while Mbappe has been loaned to PSG with future fee which might go till 180 million euros! Lyon lost their key players Alexandre Lacazette (60 million euros to Arsenal) and Corentin Tolisso (41,5 million euros to Bayern) and little bit surprisingly Emanuel Mammana (16,5 million euros to Zenith) as well. Besides that I can stress also transfers of Aurier (from PSG to Tottenham for 25M), Matuidi (from PSG to Juventus for 20M), Dalbert (from Nice to Inter for 20M), Karamoh (from Caen to Inter for 6M), Boudebouz (from Montpellier to Betis for 7M), Ounas (from Bordeaux to Napoli for 10M), Augustin (from PSG to Leipzig for 13M), and several others...[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Whole article here: [/FONT]http://www.fa-p.eu/2017/09/summer-trans ... gue-1.html

 

[Pep004]

I am welcoming you on my new website: footalyct.com

 

[Pep004]

Don't miss free previews on footalyct.com!

Yesterday we hit 5 out of 7! You can find 4 new free previews ON THE SITE right now!

 

[Pep004]

[FONT=&quot]Let's shake of Friday's rustiness..
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[FONT=&quot]https://footalyct.com/saturday-25th-november/
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[FONT=&quot]Short previews of Saturdays matches are on the site!
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[Pep004]

Read other free previews on footalyct.com​​​​​​​!


Real Betis v Cadiz; 21:30
Setien cannot count on defenders Feddal and Amat, midfielder Fabian and forwards Sanabria (1st goalscorer), Campbell and Guerrero.
Alvaro is coming without first goalkeeper Cifuentes, defenders Carpio, Bijker, Villanueva, Correa and Sankare, midfielder Jose Mari and attackers Carrillo and Perea.
Short preview: First match ended with 1-2 win of Betis who is with two away goals with one leg already in next leg of competition. Both teams are from Andalusia, so there will be so called “special” moment, especially for Cadiz who is in Segunda and will try to prove their qualities on Benito Villamarin stadium. Of course Betis is favourite here with odds around 1,65 but as they will try to take points from Canary Islands in 3 days, we can expect some rotations by Setien but I think that anyway not too many of them. They are without a single win in last 4 matches and even though it is a cup match they have a chance to gain some confidence. True that Cadiz isn’t conceding a lot of goals but that counts for Segunda. They are meeting a 8th placed team from Primera, who scored at least two goals on last 7 matches so I am suggesting Betis team totals over 1,75 with odds around 1,85 here.

 

[Pep004]

[FONT=&quot]Read other free previews on: footalyct.com[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Malaga v Levante; 21:00[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Malaga will miss defenders Juan Carlos and Miguel Torres and midfielders Ricca and Kuzmanović. Two important players – midfielder Recio and defender Baysse are doubtful and will probably stay out of the action tonight.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Levante is coming without defenders Rober and Lopez, midfielders Dokouré, Lerma and Lukić and forwards Alegria and Roger Marti.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Short preview: I need to say that I fancy odds on Levante not to lose here – odds around 2,25. Odds dropped pretty heavily on home side and I am not saying that they aren’t favourites tonight, they are but not as big as bookmakers are showing right now in my opinion. Malaga had terrible results and they are currently sitting on positions for relegation with 5 points behind the 17th place Deportivo La Coruña. Levante is even three points higher than Depor, and they are typical tough team, capable of surprising every single team in the league. Postigo and Chema will probably play back together on central positions of defence and with them Levante will be more compact. They are usually playing very defensively, with defensive line very low and with low possession, trying to surprise with quick counters. They lost only one of last 5 away matches.[/FONT]

 

[Pep004]

[FONT=&quot]Free previews for today!
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[FONT=&quot]https://footalyct.com/1060-2/
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[Pep004]

Manchester City vs West Ham; 17:00


Citizens will miss injured defenders Stones and Mendy, while having Kompany and Fernandinho doubtful with small injuries. Leroy Sane is coming back in the squad after being out due to illness on last match.

West Ham is coming to Manchester without defenders Fonte, Collins and Byram, forwards Chicharito and Carrol and as Hart is loaned from City, they cannot use him neither.

Short preview: Guardiola said that winning in last minutes makes a team bigger, more confident and that it’s important to win matches in this way and I agree with that but there is a line between those situations being good and happening too often. Citizens won last 3 matches and it has been a while since we saw them winning with huge goal difference. I thought that it will happen last match but I didn’t expect Sane out. Even though due to injury of Stones, buildup of City isn’t as good as with him, I expect them to destroy one team and West Ham of Moyes, recently trashed by Everton with 4-0 is perfect opportunity for that. I suggest Man City -1 already in first half time with odds around 1,80. I see them winning this one with 4 or 5 goals scored.


You can read more short previews https://footalyct.com/sunday-3rd-december/