Granted I'm not "up close and personal," I may not be on the practice field with Hawaii discussing game strategies with June Jones and giving Timmy Chang back massages like some other members in here, but you can't deny the stats and the circumstances around this game. They're too real for ya!
Granted Chang does throw alot of picks, but you have to take into consideration how much the Hawaii offense throws. Chang will throw many picks this year, as well as many td's too. I just think against a team such as Fl Atlantic (newly admitted into Division 1A) Chang should not have as many problems as opposed to a normal or decent Division 1A team with Division 1A experience.
You can't even compare stats b/t the teams, two different divisions. If Hawaii were a division AA team then their numbers would be considerably different. I don't care how well they did in D 1AA or D 1AAA or whatever. This is D 1A, just ask Troy St. about the differences b/t D 1A and D 1AA.
I'm not a Hawaii fan at all, and I'm not taking in the media hype, I'm going with what makes most sense to me. I figure take Hawaii -20 and the overs. If Hawaii doesn't cover then at least I might cover my ass with the overs (as long as the overs are no more than 62 or 63.) I think if Fl Atlantic does cover then they will have to put up alot of points (high 20's).
Key notes:
Hawaii averaged 44 pts per game at home last year!...returning 10 starters on offense. Two returning starters at receiver, Komine and leading receiver Owens (85 receptions, 24 more than their second leading receiver.) You know Hawaii will put up big points. Granted Chang didn't start all year, but he is more than qualified to put up those numbers.
Downside: Only returning 3 starters on defense, who cares because their defense always sucks anyway. May make for a high scoring game, but their brutal defense can rely a little on jet lag to help out. I don't think Fl Atlantic will be able to put up 4 or 5 touchdowns to keep in range of the spread.
Average margin of victory at home last year (not including the bowl game) was 18 pts, against experienced D 1 teams.
Only one loss at home last year, against Boise
St. Quality wins at home against Alabama, Fresno St, and Houston in the bowl.
Don't forget about the huge advantage of being at home. Do you think Fl Atlantic will be off a bit due to that 6 hour difference? That's a long flight!
My prediction:
Florida Atlantic 17
Hawaii 49
I gotta go, June and I are trying to figure out where we are going for lunch today.
