Generally speaking the 3-4 games go over. My guess is b/c they don't really care whether or not they win, tend to play more open and aggressive games and the tackling is light due to fear of injury in what is essentially a friendly.
02 - Turkey 3/Korea 2
98 - NED 1/Croatia 2
94 - SWE 4/BUL 0
90 - ITALY 2/ENG 1
86 - FRANCE 4/BEL 2 (was 2-2 at end of regulation)
82 - POL 3/FRANCE 2
I didn't go back any further, but that is the last 6 3/4 games and they all went over.
