*Update:
-This was the
"BGP" with it's indepth
Write-Up and
Big Game Analysis that I released on
"Super Saturday" ...
"BIG GAME PLAY"-CELLAR DWELLER GAME OF THE WEEK:
Baylor -1 (Big Winner!)
-It doesnt matter if the teams playing are top ranked programs or yearly conference bottom dwellars...What matters is finding those matchups where one team has a decided advantage over their opponents, fundamentally, situationally, and also technically...Well, today with this matchup between two teams deparately trying to turn their programs around, I feel the Bears have these things on their side which should equate to a rare road win after it is all said and done...Baylor is making the most improvements and has the better talent and plays in the stronger conference against better competition...then does their instate opponent SMU...SMU is one program, who frankly I feel is never going to make it back to glory days when Eric Dickerson and Craig James made them a powerhouse program...and moving from the WAC to Conf USA wont make things easier for them to find success at all..
Baylor is most times mistakenly taken for a team just as worst as these Mustangs are, but we need to remember, this team does play in that loaded Big 12 South conference...so records and results within that conference they play in will take some time to change...which btw, they have been slowly doing...ie, beating two bowl bound teams in... their upset of #17 ranked Texas A&M in OT last year, their 34-17 whipping of N Texas, and falling just a pt shy of beating Iowa St as well...Below is some of the
Key Advantages that this Baylor team will have over the Mustangs which should be enough for them to break that 24 game road losing streak today.
*KEY ADVANTAGE #1 : Baylor Offense Line vs SMU's Smallish Front 7.
-The strength of this Bear offense is in its Offensive line...These guys upfront for the Bears is Huge, especially their G's, who combine to average 6-4, 340 lbs...They also will be alot stronger with the return of Pace, who is possibly their best lineman and the addition of Blaylock, who transfered from Tulane...This OL's backup also provides the Bears with more depth, size, and experience with two 6-5, 300 lb Srs will be key to this rotation keeping fresh throughout the game...This size, depth, and experience will play big dividend for the Bears late in games where there pounding of opponents will start showing the effect...Today, vs this smallish DL of the Mustangs, I expect their pounding it with the running game to show its effects on them much sooner...with the 4th being the quarter where they just begin to dominate and be able to run at will..
This is the size of this Bear OL which SMU will have to deal with today...6-7, 329 Jr....6-5, 349 Sr....6-2, 308 Jr.....6-4, 336 Jr.... .6-3, 295 So. ...Key OL backups 6-5, 300 Sr....and 6-5, 298 Sr....Notice also, that of all the 7 Big Uglies in their immediate rotation, all are upper classman except one soph....And, this is not even including the Bears Big TE's who will also be used in their Ground Em and Pound Em Attack today....The Mustangs weakness was their inability to stop the run allowing opponents to average over 205 ypg rushing with 26 TDs, last season...This group has speed, but they still lack the size needed to stop teams like Baylors, from letting their size overpower them into submission... Baylors Big Uglies will pave the way to a solid ground game today.
*KEY ADVANTAGE #2 : Baylor's Secondary vs SMU's Punchless Offense.
The strength of this Baylor team this year will be in its secondary where their two All-American caliber safeties in Lane and Andrews resides...and joining them in the back is two big corners, who together with Lane and Andrews will again make up a solid unit that I expect will not get beat deep alot by anyone this year...Last season the Bears ranked 62 in pass defense, which is a big improvement from their 101 ranking in this category, the previous season...
Now with 8 starters returning this year, 7 of which were also their top 10 tacklers from last season...gives Coach Morriss his deepest defensive unit since he took over...And they should have a huge advantage over this SMU offense that was very inconsistant at the QB position and who lacks anyone that will threathen deep or has shown to possess any big play ability.
SMU again, will most likely us their two QBs Tony Eckert and Jerad Romo throughout the game...something which I feel simply works against them, in way of providing any consistancy or real leader to take control of this offense...In fact, last year ..the Mustang's two QB system only produced 11 TD passes...I simply dont know how they expect to win any games using these two QBs as one of them can throw and the other only runs...Talk about making it easier for defenders to key in on plays by simply recognizing, first who is in the game, and then second the down and distance....Big Advantage for Baylor knowing that one is the passer and the other is the runner.
Furthermore, I dont expect their backfield to help out either as this is where they possess the most inexperience, not in talent but in lack of experience...as the Mustangs top 5 backs are either sophomores or younger..
*KEY ADVANTAGE #3 : Baylor's Offensive Balance vs SMU's
The Bears, on offense..still wont be a powerhouse compared to the other teams in their division....but compared to this SMU team, they possess enough balance, experience, and playmakers to be able to outclass them...
Unlike the Mustangs, the Bear's at least know who will run their offense...and he is Jr QB Shawn Bell....Bell, proved his worth when he led this team to a huge 35-34 overtime upset win over Texas A&M last season before he broke his hand ending his season a few weeks later....He is a smart player, who has shown to be an accurrate passer as well...Last season, Bell completed a team-high 60.2 percent of his passes (68-of-113) for 544 yards and no interceptions with 6 TDs...He also ranked 8th in the Big 12 in pass efficiency rating with a 118.1 mark, while facing defenses of Tex A&M, TT, and Ok St before he broke his hand against Ok St....
Side Note: In Bell's 17-games he has thrown just one interception in 211 attempts with seven touchdown...and he is entering this season having thrown a school-record 159 consecutive passes without an interception dating back to the second quarter of Baylor's 2003 game at then-No. 1 Oklahoma, a string that ranks first among active Big 12 QB's and that is just 20 attempts shy of second-place on the Big 12's all-time list.
Taking some of the weight off of Bell this year will be Baylor's RB Mosley, who is projected to be a 1,000+ yard back when the season concludes....Mosley last season rushed for 582 yards with 4 TDs...but he shown his worth when he topped 100 yards against Iowa Sts stingy defense last season....He is also a big back at 230, which will only provide more power to their running game...and that is not good news for the Mustangs defenders as Mosley outweights their back 7...Last season this All-Big 12 candidate, scored a team high 4 TDs and posted the highest per-carry mark(4.6 ypc) for a Baylar RB since 1997..and he also was 6th on the team in receiving with his 14 receptions for 111 yards and 1 TD..
Rounding out the balance to the Bears offense comes from their best WR in Zeigler...Currently he is ranked as Baylors 6th all-time receivers and his presence this year gives the Bears the presence of a true game breaker and weapon, which is something they have lacked for a long time...WR Zeigler, like Bell had his best game against the Aggies in their upset win...and he went on to finish the year with 55 catches for 536 yards and 5 TDs, good enough of a seasonn to rank 6th best all time for a receiver at BU....Joining Zeigler will be a promising receiver in Trent Shelton, who caught 38 passes for 426 years and 4 TDs, which ranked him 3rd on the team last season...He also recorded the Bears longest rush (71 yards) and reception (55 yards), which shows his game breaking ability as well..
Last season, the Bears passing game averaged 213 yards per game...and that number should increase behind the more experienced Bell, Mosley, Zeigler/Shelton, and also the ability to work behind this huge OL which should be able lessen the 35+ sacks they allowed last season...And this is not good news at all for the Mustang's defense/
Side Note: Each year since Coach Morriss took over the Bears has been able to improve their total offense output....ie, in 2004 Bears improved their total offense output (311.8 ypg) by some 30 yards over their 2003 mark (281.4 ypg) and their scoring average (20.4 ppg) was the program's highest since 1996...This year, I expect that to increase, especially vs defenses like what SMU will bring.
Side Note: Last season SMU's Secondary got lit up for 258 yards per game and 25 touchdowns..
Side Note: SMU's defense last season gave up 51 touchdowns...while their offense was only able to score just 23 TDs.
*KEY ADVANTAGE #4 : Baylors Special Teams
The Special teams play is where this Bears team should enjoy their best advantages...which should help them on both sides of the ball in this game....First, the Bears possess the nations best punter in Daniel Sepulveda..who's has been the one of the most consistant punters over the last two year averaging 44.3 yards per punt...In addition, he placed a whopping 49 kicks inside the 20...He will play a big role again in making opponents work for their yards...while at the same time provide his team out of poor field position, ultimately with the help of solid defensive play...win the field position battle...Many over look having a weapon like Sepulveda, due to the fact that it usually means the offense has failed somehow in moving the ball...But, you gotta remember that punters like Sepulveda provides his team more chances of holding on or gaining the field position battle...and winning that battle starts with the punter...
The Bears other Special teams specialist is Sr kick returner Willie Andrews, who was also named to the 2005 preseason All-Big 12 team along with Sepulveda..Besides garnering 1st team awards for his defensive play, Andrews was also a near consensus last year as a 1st-team All-Big 12 honoree...Currently, he ranks as the school's all-time leader in total kick return yards for both Kickoffs and Punt returns, with.a total of 2,057 yards...Last season, he ranked 24th nationally in kickoff returns (24.7 ypr) and 43rd nationally in punt returns (10.8 ypr)...
Both of these two Special teams studs will help the Bears offense and defense with better field position to work with...and in games like these their play could be the keys to winning in a deciding way..
*SITUATIONAL EDGE:
-SE #1: Baylor only has Samford and Army up next for them....so it is a big opportunity for this team to start the season at 3-0...However, they must win this 1st game over the Mustangs inorder to get the ball rolling to possibly their biggest season under Coach Morriss...
-SE #2: SMU, last season played rotating QB's, due to no one possessing to both run and pass with any consistant success...ie, QB Romo is the runner, QB Eckert is a decent passer...This year however, they want to go with one of them...however, no one yet has been able to step up and take the bull by the horns...The starter for todays game will be a gametime decision and this is not a ploy by the Mustangs to keep an edge but because both QB's suck shit...So no matter who gets the nod to start, or if they go back to using both QB's..the Bears defense wont find it hard to adjust their schemes to defend either one.
SE #3: Unlike Baylors, who has their OL set...SMU again cant say the same about their OL combination...The problem mostly has to do with talent and lack of size as they arent Big Bulldozers at all...There's lots of versatility and plenty of options to tinker with, but its never a good thing when you have to try out different combinations during the season, in order to find out what works and who is capable or not...That should of been takin care of in Spring ball or at least based on last years performance...Advantage to Baylors defense which returns 8 starters this year.
Side Note: Out of 117 D1-A teams, preseason ranks Baylor at 80 while SMU remains near the bottom again at 102.
Bottom line in this one is that Baylor has more play makers on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball over SMU....They are also much more improved as a team overall..and that is big in comparing these two teams...Past seasons poor records and last place finishes by both teams does not reflect these two in the same light at all...The Bears come from the loaded Big 12 South while SMU plays in the weak WAC..so the talent level of both teams, in this case is much better with the Bears...The Bears also face and plays alot better competition each year and that helps to make them a better team, compared to the level of competition that SMU faces....In fact, Baylor and Syracuse were the only programs to have played eight eventual bowl teams last season...and their slate ranks as the nation's 6 toughest this year...Baylor is the more battle tested team by far and it will show vs this WAC team..
This one is not against another cellar dwellar, who is equal with them in experience, level of competition, or athleticism...this one is against a team that is going no where but down....This will be coach Bennett's 4th year at SMU and he is still facing the same unanswered questions heading into another season...ie, Who's going to finally take the quarterback job by the horns? Will anyone on the defensive front seven ever be able to stuff the run? Will any of the offensive skill players show any sort of home-run hitting ability?....Baylor's Coach Morriss, on the other hand, has a team who has been making strides each year, despite the tough competitioin that they must face each year...The Bears are headed in the right direction since he took over..and with this years team possessing the most depth and veteran players, on both sides...This game vs SMU, although on the road where the Bears has lost 24 straight games, still presents a solid opportunity and opponent that the Bears should be able to control, dominate, and get the win against.....So with all that said, take the
BAYLOR BEARS -1 as a
"BIG GAME PLAY"- CELLAR DWELLAR GAME OF THE WEEK selection on Super Saturday.....GL and Lets continue Kicking the Man's Ass with these
Bad Boys, Aloha CC.
*please disregard any typos and grammatical errors as I didnt have time to edit this book...thxs.
