Fantasy Football News 2011/2012

HacheMan · Apr 27, 2011

Draft 2011: 2-Round Final Mock
The 2011 NFL draft is a day away, and the rumor mill is abuzz with trade scenarios. Get all of the latest over at ProFootballTalk.com and here on the Rotoworld News Page.

Chris Wesseling and yours truly will be working Rotoworld news through the weekend, and we'll bring in Pat Daugherty for an extra hand on the draft's fast-paced third day. If you aren't already, follow us on Twitter at @ChrisWesseling, @RotoPat, and @EvanSilva.

This is Rotoworld's fifth and final mock draft. Wesseling remains skeptical that Cam Newton will be the first overall pick -- he's predicting Marcell Dareus -- but I've had the 2010 Heisman winner in the top spot since March 6, and wouldn't feel comfortable backing down now.

Projections for the first two rounds:

1. Panthers: Cam Newton, quarterback, Auburn.

Newton has talent to turn around the struggling Panthers organization.

2. Broncos: Marcell Dareus, defensive tackle, Alabama.

Denver can't pass on the draft's top defensive tackle as it installs a 4-3.

3. Bills: Von Miller, linebacker, Texas A&M.

The Miller pick fixes Buffalo's disastrous 2009 miss on Aaron Maybin.

4. Bengals: Blaine Gabbert, quarterback, Missouri.

Cincinnati can now feel comfortable trading Carson Palmer to Seattle.

5. Cardinals: Robert Quinn, linebacker, North Carolina.

Quinn will replace Joey Porter, a surefire post-draft salary casualty.

6. Browns: A.J. Green, wide receiver, Georgia.

Colt McCoy has no shot to succeed with his current supporting cast.

7. 49ers: Patrick Peterson, cornerback, LSU.

Picks five and seven are interchangeable; the 49ers would take either.

8. Titans: Nick Fairley, defensive tackle, Auburn.

The offensive staff wants a QB, but Fairley will be higher on their board.

9. Cowboys: Tyron Smith, tackle, USC.

Left tackle Doug Free is a free agent, making Smith a no-brainer pick.

10. Redskins: Jake Locker, quarterback, Washington.

Shanahans are intent on finding their franchise quarterback in this draft.

11. Texans: Aldon Smith, linebacker, Missouri.

With Miller and Quinn gone, the Texans take the best pass rusher left.

12. Vikings: Julio Jones, wide receiver, Alabama.

The Vikes want Locker, but fall back with a weapon for a free agent QB.



13. Lions: Anthony Castonzo, tackle, Boston College.

Detroit's No. 1 draft priority must be to keep Matthew Stafford healthy.

14. Rams: Prince Amukamara, cornerback, Nebraska.

St. Louis can't pass on a falling Amukamara; he'll be atop their board.

15. Dolphins: Mike Pouncey, guard, Florida.

The Fins covet a guard that can both pull and play with in-line power.

16. Jaguars: Christian Ponder, quarterback, Florida State.

Jacksonville will continue to plod along offensively with David Garrard.

17. Patriots: Cameron Jordan, defensive end, Cal.

Jordan draws some comparisons to Richard Seymour as a 3-4 end.

18. Chargers: J.J. Watt, defensive end, Wisconsin.

The Bolts want more pass rush at their right defensive end position.

19. Giants: Corey Liuget, defensive tackle, Illinois.

Liuget could form a dangerous tandem with Chris Canty on the inside.

20. Bucs: Da'Quan Bowers, defensive end, Clemson.

A risky pick, but the Bucs swing for the fences at a major sore spot.

21. Chiefs: Gabe Carimi, tackle, Wisconsin.

Carimi is the ideal bookend tackle to play across from Branden Albert.

22. Colts: Derek Sherrod, tackle, Mississippi State.

The Colts upgrade Peyton Manning's pass protection with a safe pick.

23. Eagles: Jimmy Smith, cornerback, Colorado.

Smith could be the missing piece Philly needs for a Super Bowl berth.

24. Saints: Jabaal Sheard, defensive end, Pittsburgh.

Big East Defensive Player of the Year can spark the Saints' front seven.

25. Seahawks: Andy Dalton, quarterback, TCU.

A reach, but it may not necessarily be the Seahawks making this pick.

26. Ravens: Ryan Kerrigan, defensive end, Purdue.

Kerrigan is everything Paul Kruger was supposed to be two years ago.

27. Falcons: Danny Watkins, guard, Baylor.

Watkins is pro-ready, and Atlanta risks losing three of its starting front five.

28. Patriots: Brooks Reed, linebacker, Arizona.

Reed's best projection is 3-4 outside 'backer, a weak position in Foxboro.

29. Bears: Marvin Austin, defensive tackle, North Carolina.

It's no secret that the Bears are high on Austin to replace Tommie Harris.

30. Jets: Muhammad Wilkerson, defensive end, Temple.

Wilkerson can collapse the pocket at New York's biggest area of need.

31. Steelers: Phil Taylor, defensive tackle, Baylor.

Pittsburgh solidifies its aging front line with a run-stopping behemoth.

32. Packers: James Carpenter, tackle, Alabama.

Carpenter starts at guard in year one, and can eventually kick to tackle.



33. Patriots: Nate Solder, tackle, Colorado.

Solder is a project, but the Pats would struggle to pass on his upside.

34. Bills: Colin Kaepernick, quarterback, Nevada.

The athletic, strong-armed Kaepernick is an ideal fit in Buffalo's offense.

35. Bengals: Mark Ingram, running back, Alabama.

If Ingram slips to the second round, the Pats or Bengals will take him.

36. Broncos: Ben Ijalana, tackle, Villanova.

Denver covets right tackle help with free agent Ryan Harris moving on.

37. Browns: Adrian Clayborn, defensive end, Iowa.

Poor senior-year production and an arm injury cause Clayborn to fall.

38. Cardinals: Kyle Rudolph, tight end, Notre Dame.

Likely 2011 starter Marc Bulger gets a first-round talent at tight end.

39: Titans: Ryan Mallett, quarterback, Arkansas.

After passing on quarterbacks at No. 8, the Titans end Mallett's slide.

40. Cowboys: Aaron Williams, safety, Texas.

Williams converts to free safety, a longtime trouble spot for Dallas.

41. Redskins: Torrey Smith, wide receiver, Maryland.

The Skins get Locker a weapon to stretch defenses down the field.

42. Texans: Ras-I Dowling, cornerback, Virginia.

Dowling would've been a first-round pick if he wasn't injury prone.

43. Vikings: Justin Houston, defensive end, Georgia.

A failed drug test at the Combine knocks Houston out of round one.

44. Lions: Akeem Ayers, linebacker, UCLA.

Poor workouts and an inconsistent motor cause a precipitous slide.

45. 49ers: Dontay Moch, linebacker, Nevada.

Moch pairs elite measurables with production at a position of need.

46. Broncos: Stephen Paea, defensive tackle, Oregon State.

Denver needs to emerge from day two with multiple defensive tackles.

47. Rams: Mikel Leshoure, running back, Illinois.

The early-down bruiser needed to extend Steven Jackson's career.

48. Raiders: Rodney Hudson, center, Florida State.

Al Davis will love Hudson's athleticism and decorated college career.



49. Jaguars: Leonard Hankerson, wide receiver, Miami.

Jags finally get a big receiver with a decent head on his shoulders.

50. Chargers: Chris Carter, linebacker, Fresno State.

Carter is a highly underrated pass rusher coming out of the WAC.

51. Bucs: Randall Cobb, wide receiver, Kentucky.

The Bucs need a homerun hitter on offense, and Cobb can do it all.

52. Giants: Will Rackley, guard, Lehigh.

The G-Men are dangerously old and thinning on the interior o-line.

53. Colts: Kenrick Ellis, defensive tackle, Hampton.

Ellis is a hulking specimen who could rejuvenate Indy's run defense.

54. Eagles: Mason Foster, linebacker, Washington.

Foster will be the highest rated non-rush linebacker on many boards.

55. Chiefs: Jonathan Baldwin, wide receiver, Pittsburgh.

Dwayne Bowe needs help outside, and is also in a contract year.

56. Saints: Lawrence Wilson, linebacker, UConn.

Wilson is a perfect fit at weak-side linebacker for Gregg Williams.

57. Seahawks: Brandon Harris, cornerback, Miami.

The media overrated Harris because of his big name; he's a "late two."

58. Ravens: Edmond Gates, wide receiver, Abilene Christian.

Gates is a mature, 25-year-old deep threat ready to start at split end.

59. Falcons: Titus Young, wide receiver, Boise State.

Atlanta sits tight and gets Young instead of trading up for A.J. Green.

60. Patriots: Ryan Williams, running back, Virginia Tech.

Williams' injury-ruined sophomore year makes him a steal here.

61. Chargers: Martez Wilson, linebacker, Illinois.

Wilson doesn't perform as well in pads as he does in underwear.

62. Bears: Stefen Wisniewski, center/guard, Penn State.

The Bears say their biggest offensive line weaknesses are inside.

63. Steelers: Taiwan Jones, running back, Eastern Washington.

Pittsburgh finds it difficult to pass on this Jamaal Charles clone.

64. Packers: Cameron Heyward, defensive end, Ohio State.

Another overrated talent, but still a good value late in round two.

HacheMan · Apr 27, 2011

Draft 2011: The Big Questions
This uncertain unprecedented NFL offseason deserves a draft like this.

In an offseason where everything about the NFL is up in the air from free agent status to when the season will start, it only seems right that the draft is full of more questions than usual.

Let's try to figure out some answers.

So is Cam Newton a lock to go No. 1 to the Panthers?

No one knows. Really. A media consensus has coalesced that Carolina will take Newton, but the Panthers have done an excellent job limiting leaks about their plans.

A few clued-in NFL folks believe Carolina would prefer to trade down. In that scenario, they would take cornerback Patrick Peterson, Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus or Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green. Dareus seems likely to go second to Denver, but no one seems sure of that either.

Can a team without a quarterback really afford to pass on Newton?

There are plenty of arguments against taking Newton first. He's going to take time to get ready, but fans won't be particularly patient after buying tickets to see him. With limited offseason practice to get ready, rookie quarterbacks may have to essentially redshirt this season.

New Panthers coach Ron Rivera is defensive minded and the team's need at defensive tackle is arguably greater than at quarterback. The Panthers took quarterback Jimmy Clausen in the second round last year, and G.M. Marty Hurney still believes in him. (The coaching staff may feel differently.)

Carolina does not have a second round pick and would love to pick up more ammo. Hurney's biggest problem is that one seems particularly likely to move up for Newton, who is a reach so high. The most likely outcome is that Carolina stays put.

Newton remains the favorite to be taken first, but I'm not convinced it's a lock. Dareus going No. 1 overall makes a lot of sense.

Why is the top ten so unpredictable this year?

This could be a rough year for mock drafters. There simply isn't that big of a talent gap between the players in the top ten. Texas A&M outside linebacker Von Miller is an exceptional pass rusher, but it's hard to separate him from receivers like Green and Alabama's Julio Jones. Peterson may be the "safest" pick in the top ten, but some folks believe Nebraska's Prince Amukamara is nearly as talented.

UNC's Robert Quinn leads a deep crop of defensive ends; he didn't play last year because of NCAA violations. Clemson's DaQuan Bowers was once seen as a potential No. 1 pick, but knee troubles have torpedoed his stock. That's the kind of class this is.

At least eight defensive linemen should go in round one, and the number could climb to double digits. Ask five evaluators which end they like best and you may get five different answers.

The cream of the crop in this draft just isn't as hyped as usual. That doesn't mean they are less talented, just that teams will see players differently.

Throw in an unprecedented number of teams at the top of draft needing quarterbacks, and we should have quite a few surprises in the top ten.

Why is this a good year to be a quarterback prospect?

Supply and demand. This offseason started with an abnormally big group of teams looking for help at quarterback. Without free agency or trades available because of the lockout, there are a lot of desperate coaches and antsy owners looking for someone to help sell hope.

In the top 12 picks alone, at least nine teams need a quarterback. Mike Mayock expects a "feeding frenzy" to build at the position, with players getting taken earlier than their talent warrants.

"There's never been a draft where eight quarterbacks have gone in the first three rounds," Mayock said this week on the Dan Patrick Show. "And eight are going in the first three rounds this year, maybe in the first two rounds. And it's not because they are great quarterbacks."

Newton and Missouri's Blaine Gabbert arguably aren't worth top-10 picks, but they should go in the top five. Jake Locker looks like a boom or bust prospect with accuracy questions, but we wouldn't be surprised to see him go No. 10 to Washington or No. 12 to Minnesota. Tennessee could also reach for a quarterback like Locker or even Andy Dalton at No. 8.

Who figures to benefit from the quarterback frenzy?

Teams at the bottom of the first round like the Patriots and Jets could capitalize on QB fever, picking up extra picks in order to let teams move back into the first round.

Arkansas' Ryan Mallett's arm strength may prove too intriguing for teams to wait on, despite questions about his maturity. Florida State's Christian Ponder and TCU's Andy Dalton have become favorites of teams that want a smart, steady skill set. Think Chad Pennington 2.0. if all goes well. Raw but wildly athletic Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick might be a bit of a project, but has the tools to go early.

An unprecedented number of quarterbacks will likely be taken in the first 2-3 rounds, yet there is little consensus this is a great class. It's a boom-or-bust group, and we suspect a few general managers will lose their jobs for taking these guys too early.

What teams will be the most active trading?

While you can't trade veterans (see sidebar), teams can deal 2011 and 2012 draft picks. The Patriots own six of the top 92 picks, including three of the first 33. New England holds Carolina's second round pick, and could hold an auction all day Friday for teams looking to move up for any quarterbacks that slip past day one. It would be a surprise if the Patriots don't pick up some team's first round pick for next year.

San Diego holds 5 of the first 89 picks. Chargers G.M. A.J. Smith needs to re-stock his talent base and is never afraid of moving around.

What positions are the weakest in this draft?

It's a bad year to need a premier tight end, safety, or running back. Notre Dame's Kyle Rudolph should be the first tight end off the board, a solid option sometime in round two.

At least two running backs have been taken in the first round of every draft since 1963, a streak that will end this year. Alabama's Mark Ingram looks like the top back and he may not go until round two. Don't expect a safety to go in round one either.

The cornerback class is strong at the top with Patrick Peterson, Prince Amukamara, and Jimmy Smith, but the depth is lacking if you are looking in the middle rounds.

Who are this draft's wild cards?

Jimmy Smith, Colorado cornerback: Some people believe Smith has the best press cornerback skill set in this class, in the same mold of Nnamdi Asomugha. His off-field questions remind a lot of others Tampa's Aqib Talib, a supreme talent that hasn't been able to stay out of trouble.

I don't think the Eagles will let Smith get past them at No. 23, if he gets that far.

Phil Taylor, Baylor defensive tackle: Nose tackles that can play in a 3-4 defense are nearly impossible to find. Taylor has a top-15 skill set, but he was inconsistent in college at best. He's going to make some G.M. look like a genius or an idiot, probably in the first round.

Blaine Gabbert, Missouri quarterback: He looks like an elite quarterback prospect. He has the agent elite quarterback prospects have, with the strong arm and athleticism to match. The reality is that Gabbert wasn't exceptionally effective in college and shows questionable pocket presence. He reminds me a little of Alex Smith as a prospect the draftniks fell in love with despite plenty of warning signs.

Nick Fairley, Auburn defensive tackle: After a dominant showing in the BCS title game, a lot of smart people thought Fairley might go No. 1 overall. Questions about his motor and strength have knocked him down mock drafts, but he could be a big impact player right away.

So how does the lockout affect the draft?

Amazingly, we still don't know with certainty what the rules will be following Judge Susan Nelson's injunction to lift the lockout this Monday. Considering the late timing of Nelson's decision, it's expected that the draft will operate as if the lockout was still in place. That would mean:

Players can't be dealt; only draft picks can. So there won't be any draft surprises like Randy Moss getting sent to the Patriots for picks, or the Raiders acquiring Jason Campbell from the Redskins.

Undrafted players will not be able to be signed after the draft concludes Saturday. Those players would be free to sign with the UFL, CFL, or AFL if they chose. The UFL has said they will aggressively go after undrafted players.

The Panthers can't negotiate contracts with potential No. 1 picks. It's very common for teams to negotiate with more than one player for leverage. It's very common on draft night for the No. 1 pick already to have a deal in place, but that won't be the case this year.

It's uncertain just how much these rookies will make. The next collective bargaining agreement should include a new rookie wage scale, which will dramatically decrease the money going to top-10 picks.

While most teams believe the scale will apply to this year's draft picks, no one knows for sure. The uncertainty may curb trading at the top of the draft. In theory, it's harder to come up with fair trade compensation if you don't know how much that rookie will make.

While it's extremely unlikely the NFL Draft will end as we know it, there is at least a slight chance there won't even be a draft next year. One argument made by NFLPA* lawyer Jeffrey Kessler furthers the idea that college players should just be available to the highest bidder.

No one expects the draft to go away, but the uncertainty could diminish the trading of 2012 draft picks. Once again, uncertainty rules.

How will fan anger about the lockout manifest itself at Radio City Music Hall?

This draft could go down in history as the one where fans boo Commissioner Roger Goodell mercilessly; the draft where handshakes replace man hugs on stage; a draft as awkward as a crisp baseball hat worn with a crisp suit.

The league must be apprehensive about the reception Goodell will receive every time he hits the stage. For the first time since the lockout started, fans have the chance to express their displeasure with a work stoppage that has no justification.

The fans that show up to the draft to hear names called off index cards are not your average fans. They are the fans that wait in interminable lines just to be part of anything NFL-related.

They buy jerseys, tickets, Personal Seat Licenses, overpriced beers, and satellite television packages. They gladly pay outrageous sums for parking, fantasy football league fees; they gobble up and suck down whatever advertisers the NFL tells them to. They pay for it all because they love football with an intensity they can't explain.

The NFL has done an incredible job over the years cultivating this love. On Thursday night, at a time of unprecedented popularity and wealth for the league, Goodell must face those fans while simultaneously taking them for granted and threatening to take football away.

Perhaps the narcotic of the draft will sedate the upper deck, but we doubt it. Fans at the draft last year showed no mercy on Ben Roethlisberger, and he wasn't even in the building.

At a time when fans rightfully feel like they are being taken for granted, I expect their voices to be heard.

HacheMan · May 1, 2011

Draft 2011: NFC Grades
The 2011 NFL draft concluded Saturday evening. Rotoworld blurbed every single selection, picks one (Cam Newton) through 254 (Cheta Ozougwu).

After a grueling three days of relentless work, we'll put the finishing touches on our intensive draft coverage with post-draft grades.

But trust us: We don't believe in assessing draft hauls immediately after the three-day affair. This is for your pleasure. If you're reading this intro, you're interested. And we want to appeal to you. Don't take these grades too seriously. We'll know a lot more about the 2011 draft in around 2014.

But here's our breakdown of the NFC:

Arizona Cardinals

5. Patrick Peterson, cornerback, LSU.
38. Ryan Williams, running back, Virginia Tech.
69. Rob Housler, tight end, Florida Atlantic.
103. Sam Acho, linebacker, Texas.
136. Anthony Sherman, fullback, UConn.
171. Quan Sturdivant, linebacker, North Carolina.
184. David Carter, defensive end, UCLA.

Overview: The disappointing aspect of this draft was that it didn't include an impact pass rusher. The Cards say they rated Williams as a top-15 player, but they passed on Akeem Ayers and Brooks Reed for a committee back. Acho has a big name, but isn't an especially explosive rusher. He'll probably max out as a Parys Haralson type. While Peterson was the cream of this crop, rounds three through seven all brought in good talent. Sherman is a bulldozing lead blocker. Housler's speed translates to the field, where he averaged 15.74 yards per catch in his career. Sturdivant is a better player than his workouts showed. Carter is a solid five-technique prospect.

Grade: B-

Atlanta Falcons

6. Julio Jones, wide receiver, Alabama.
91. Akeem Dent, linebacker, Georgia.
145. Jacquizz Rodgers, running back, Oregon State.
192. Matt Bosher, kicker, Miami.
210. Andrew Jackson, guard, Fresno State.
230. Cliff Matthews, defensive end, South Carolina.

Overview: Jones and Rodgers both required trades up, and in the process Atlanta forked over first-, second-, fourth-, fifth-, and seventh-round picks in 2011, as well as first- and fourth-round picks in 2012. While we appreciate G.M. Thomas Dimitroff's aggressiveness, that's a lot to pay for a possession receiver and 5-foot-6 running back. But the draft definitely makes the Falcons better right away. Jackson and Matthews were value picks, the former an underrated interior line prospect and the latter a relentless pass rusher. Dent is a big-time hitter at linebacker.

Grade: C+

Carolina Panthers

1. Cam Newton, quarterback, Auburn.
65. Terrell McClain, defensive tackle, South Florida.
97. Sione Fua, defensive tackle, Stanford.
98. Brandon Hogan, cornerback, West Virginia.
132. Kealoha Pilares, wide receiver, Hawaii.
166. Lawrence Wilson, linebacker, UConn.
203. Zachary Williams, guard/center, Washington State.
244. Lee Ziemba, tackle, Auburn.

Overview: Mixed feelings about this draft. Carolina is swinging for the fences on Newton, which is something G.M. Marty Hurney felt forced into after seeing his team go 2-14 last season. McClain had second-round grades from teams and was a value at the top of round three. Wilson is a run-and-chase linebacker with outstanding athleticism and coverage skills. The picks we didn't like were Hogan, who is littered with character and medical red flags, Ziemba, a slow-footed tackle, Fua, a nose tackle without much pass-rush ability, and Williams, a 'tweener guard/center. Pilares is something of a sleeper, but overall this draft is a tough one to "grade."

Grade: C-

Chicago Bears

29. Gabe Carimi, tackle, Wisconsin.
53. Stephen Paea, defensive tackle, Oregon State.
93. Chris Conte, safety, California.
160. Nate Enderle, quarterback, Idaho.
195. J.T. Thomas, linebacker, West Virginia.

Overview: Few expected Carimi to be available at 29, and that pick was one of the first round's biggest steals. He's a plug-and-play starter along with Paea, who cost a trade up (the Bears surrendered picks No. 62 and 127). Paea won't make anyone forget Tommie Harris' prime, but he is a stout run defender with better pass-rush skills than given credit. A former cornerback, Conte can flat-out cover. He's got excellent range. Enderle took a boatload of sacks at Idaho, so he'll fit right into Mike Martz's system. Thomas adds some youth to an aging linebacker corps.

Grade: B

Dallas Cowboys

9. Tyron Smith, tackle, USC.
40. Bruce Carter, linebacker, North Carolina.
71. DeMarco Murray, running back, Oklahoma.
110. David Arkin, tackle/guard, Missouri State.
143. Josh Thomas, cornerback, Buffalo.
176. Dwayne Harris, wide receiver, East Carolina.
220. Shaun Chapas, fullback, Georgia.
252. Bill Nagy, center/guard, Wisconsin.

Overview: The Cowboys got fine value with their first two picks, and acquiring the best left tackle in any draft as "late" as No. 9 overall is a coup. But it's fair to wonder if Dallas could have done better in the end. Murray is an injury waiting to happen, and wasn't nearly as productive on a per-play basis as some think in the last two years of his college career. His name is much bigger than his actual game. Arkin is a project and probably a reach so early in round four. The only late-rounder we especially like is Harris, who can do all of the things Patrick Crayton could.

Grade: B-

Detroit Lions

13. Nick Fairley, defensive tackle, Auburn.
44. Titus Young, wide receiver, Boise State.
57. Mikel Leshoure, running back, Illinois.
157. Doug Hogue, linebacker, Syracuse.
209. Johnny Culbreath, tackle, South Carolina State.

Overview: The Lions stuck to their board in round one, stealing a top-eight talent at No. 13. Remember when The Williamses ruled the NFC North? Detroit will have a better defensive line within a year. And the rest of the draft was just as impressive. Leshoure had first-round grades from some teams. Young adds a new element to a Detroit offense that's gotten nothing from its third receiver since Mike Martz was run out of town. Culbreath runs a 4.92 at 6-foot-5, 322, so he's your quintessential late-round flier. Hogue will push for a starting job on the outside. The only reason this draft doesn't get a full "A" is because it didn't include any defensive back help.

Grade: A-

Green Bay Packers

32. Derek Sherrod, tackle, Mississippi State.
64. Randall Cobb, wide receiver, Kentucky.
96. Alex Green, running back, Hawaii.
131. Davon House, cornerback, New Mexico State.
141. D.J. Williams, tight end, Arkansas.
179. Caleb Schlauderaff, guard, Utah.
186. D.J. Smith, linebacker, Appalachian State.
197. Ricky Elmore, linebacker, Arizona.
218. Ryan Taylor, special teamer, North Carolina.
233. Lawrence Guy, defensive end, Arizona State.

Overview: G.M. Ted Thompson killed it, as usual. All five of his rounds one through five picks brought value, and at least four fit into positions that needed depth. Sherrod will be a starter by year two. Cobb is incredibly versatile with some Percy Harvin to his game. Green is highly underrated. House has the size-speed combo of a starter. Williams is "move" tight end insurance in case Jermichael Finley leaves in 2012 free agency. Don't be shocked if Guy or Elmore develops into a major contributor. Taylor was UNC's special teams captain in 2008 and 2010.

Grade: A

Minnesota Vikings

12. Christian Ponder, quarterback, Florida State.
43. Kyle Rudolph, tight end, Notre Dame.
106. Christian Ballard, defensive tackle, Iowa.
139. Brandon Burton, cornerback, Utah.
168. DeMarcus Love, tackle/guard, Arkansas.
170. Mistral Raymond, defensive back, South Florida.
172. Brandon Fusco, center, Slippery Rock.
200. Ross Homan, linebacker, Ohio State.
215. D'Aundre Reed, defensive end, Arizona.
236. Stephen Burton, wide receiver, West Texas A&M.

Overview: We've seen Todd McShay bash the Ponder pick. The reality is, Minnesota needed a quarterback, Ponder played in a pro-style offense at FSU, and he is NFL-ready with perhaps the most accurate arm in the draft. We don't have a big problem with the selection. Behind Ponder, you can't question the value of any of G.M. Rick Spielman's remaining selections. Love won't stay at tackle in the pros, but he could be a mauling right guard. Rudolph is a day-one starter in two-tight end sets. Burton and Ballard were second-day prospects, at least according to draftniks. Fusco is a developmental center. Homan, Reed, and Burton are great late-round fliers.



Grade: B+

New Orleans Saints

24. Cameron Jordan, defensive end, California.
28. Mark Ingram, running back, Alabama.
72. Martez Wilson, linebacker, Illinois.
88. Johnny Patrick, cornerback, Louisville.
226. Greg Romeus, defensive end, Pittsburgh.
243. Nate Bussey, linebacker, Illinois.

Overview: G.M. Mickey Loomis' draft has been praised in most circles. It won't get that treatment here. The Saints need pass rush up front, and while Jordan was a fine value at 24, that's not an area in which he excels. He's a run-stopping end. Trading up for Ingram cost Loomis his 56th pick this year and next year's first-rounder. That's a ton to surrender for any running back, let alone one with 4.62 speed at 5'9/212. Wilson is a workout freak, but he doesn't play to his athleticism. Patrick might be a playmaking nickel back. Romeus was worth a shot.

Grade: C

New York Giants

19. Prince Amukamara, cornerback, Nebraska.
52. Marvin Austin, defensive tackle, North Carolina.
83. Jerrel Jernigan, wide receiver, Troy.
117. James Brewer, tackle, Indiana.
185. Greg Jones, linebacker, Michigan State.
198. Tyler Sash, safety, Iowa.
202. Jacquian Williams, linebacker, South Florida.
221. Da'Rel Scott, running back, Maryland.

Overview: Before the draft, you probably couldn't have speculated on a haul littered with more big names. And that has its perks. There are quite a few dominant college players here -- Jernigan, Jones, and Sash most notably -- and a dominant talent who didn't play to his ability in Austin. May seem strange, but Amukamara was probably the pick we liked least. He's not special in terms of cover skills or playmaking ability, and may be no better than a dime back in his first year. The Giants let Boston College tackle Anthony Castonzo slip right through their fingers.

Grade: B

Philadelphia Eagles

23. Danny Watkins, guard/tackle, Baylor.
54. Jaiquawn Jarrett, safety, Temple.
90. Curtis Marsh, cornerback, Utah State.
116. Casey Matthews, linebacker, Oregon.
120. Alex Henery, kicker/punter, Nebraska.
149. Dion Lewis, running back, Pittsburgh.
161. Julian Vandervelde, guard/center, Iowa.
191. Jason Kelce, center, Cincinnati.
193. Brian Rolle, linebacker, Ohio State.
237. Greg Lloyd, linebacker, UConn.
240. Stanley Havili, fullback, USC.

Overview: When you have 11 draft picks, you typically come out looking pretty good. The Eagles did a thorough job from top to bottom, using their top 2-3 selections on day-one starters. Watkins was the nastiest offensive lineman available for the 2011 draft, and Jarrett is a ballhawk with tremendous physicality. Marsh certainly has starting-caliber upside. Matthews is overrated because of his name, but could materialize as a two-down thumper at middle linebacker. The back end of the draft was used to address special teams. The only pick we didn't like was Lewis.

Grade: B

San Francisco 49ers

7. Aldon Smith, linebacker, Missouri.
36. Colin Kaepernick, quarterback, Nevada.
80. Chris Culliver, cornerback, South Carolina.
115. Kendall Hunter, running back, Oklahoma State.
163. Daniel Kilgore, guard, Appalachian State.
182. Ronald Johnson, wide receiver, USC.
190. Colin Jones, safety, TCU.
211. Bruce Miller, linebacker, Central Florida.
239. Mike Person, tackle/guard, Montana State.
250. Curtis Holcomb, cornerback, Florida A&M.

Overview: It's hard not to like Jim Harbaugh's first draft. Contrary to some belief, pass rush was San Francisco's most pressing need, and Smith draws DeMarcus Ware comparisons for explosive disruptiveness and a freakish wingspan. He gives the 49ers a legitimate double-digit sack threat in year one. Like the pick or not, Kaepernick is set up for success under quarterback guru Harbaugh. Hunter, Jones, Miller, and Person were all noticeable value choices. Culliver has medical and character flags. Johnson is also brittle. Holcomb was a throwaway pick.

Grade: B+

Seattle Seahawks

25. James Carpenter, tackle, Alabama.
75. John Moffitt, guard, Wisconsin.
99. K.J. Wright, linebacker, Mississippi State.
107. Kris Durham, wide receiver, Georgia.
154. Richard Sherman, defensive back, Stanford.
156. Mark LeGree, safety, Appalachian State.
173. Byron Maxwell, special teamer, Clemson.
205. Lazarius Levingston, defensive tackle, LSU.
242. Malcolm Smith, linebacker, USC.

Overview: Seattle made an effort to get more physical in the trenches, and came away successful. Carpenter and Moffitt are all-out brawlers and could both start in season one. Don't believe what you read elsewhere: Carpenter was NOT a reach. For some reason, Wright flew under the pre-draft radar. He is a high-impact player who, at the very least, will be an imposing special teamer. Maxwell was one of the top gunners in college football, while Durham, Sherman, and Smith all add impressive speed to the roster. LeGree was the premier ballhawk in the draft.

Grade: B+

St. Louis Rams

14. Robert Quinn, defensive end, North Carolina.
47. Lance Kendricks, tight end, Wisconsin.
78. Austin Pettis, wide receiver, Boise State.
112. Greg Salas, wide receiver, Hawaii.
158. Jermale Hines, safety, Ohio State.
216. Mikail Baker, returner, Baylor.
228. Jabara Williams, linebacker, Stephen F. Austin.
229. Jonathan Nelson, safety, Oklahoma.

Overview: It's disturbing that G.M. Billy Devaney yet again refused to draft a running back with Steven Jackson on the decline. The Rams went with positional need -- theoretically -- over value when they selected Kendricks instead of Mikel Leshoure at No. 47. Kendricks well may have been available at 78, and the same goes for Pettis at No. 112. While Quinn was one of the better picks in round one (he was a top-five player on at least one draft board), Devaney's way of addressing his weakest spots was seemingly to toss multiple uninspiring picks at the positions. The Rams got one good pass rusher in this draft. We're not sure they improved in any other area.

Grade: C-

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

20. Adrian Clayborn, defensive end, Iowa.
51. Da'Quan Bowers, defensive end, Clemson.
84. Mason Foster, linebacker, Washington.
104. Luke Stocker, tight end, Tennessee.
151. Ahmad Black, safety, Florida.
187. Allen Bradford, running back, USC.
222. Anthony Gaitor, cornerback, Florida International.
238. Daniel Hardy, tight end, Idaho.

Overview: Another draft heavy on big names. While Clayborn and Bowers both present medical concerns, they should form Tampa's starting defensive end duo in Week 1. Foster is a candidate to replace free agent Barrett Ruud at middle linebacker. Stocker and Hardy are insurance against Kellen Winslow's knees. Black is a ballhawk who fell in the draft only because he doesn't run fast on a track. But he plays fast and is extremely physical for his size. Bradford and Gaitor aren't NFL-caliber talents. Ultimately, this draft's grade will depend on the success of the pass rushers. If Clayborn's arm and Bowers' knee hold up, it receives an unquestioned "A+."

Grade: B

Washington Redskins

16. Ryan Kerrigan, linebacker, Purdue.
41. Jarvis Jenkins, defensive end, Clemson.
79. Leonard Hankerson, wide receiver, Miami.
105. Roy Helu, running back, Nebraska.
146. DeJon Gomes, safety, Nebraska.
155. Niles Paul, wide receiver, Nebraska.
177. Evan Royster, running back, Penn State.
178. Aldrick Robinson, wide receiver, SMU.
213. Brandyn Thompson, cornerback, Boise State.
217. Maurice Hurt, guard, Florida.
224. Markus White, linebacker, Florida State.
253. Chris Neild, nose tackle, West Virginia.

Overview: The name of the game for Washington was trading down to recoup picks lost during the forgettable Vinny Cerrato era. But it's not like the Redskins didn't come away with good players. Entering the draft with the NFL's worst-looking roster, the Skins emerged with upwards of seven rookie-year starters. That's exactly the kind of rebuilding movement Washington needs to undergo. Kerrigan, Hankerson, and Helu were extremely productive per-play collegiates. In the late rounds, White and Neild stand out as rock-solid picks. The only reason Mike Shanahan's club doesn't get a full "A" is because it didn't pick up a quarterback.

Grade: A-

HacheMan · May 1, 2011

Day 1 short on fantasy factors
Christopher Harris

For the second straight year, the NFL draft's first round featured a cavalcade of interior linemen and defensive stalwarts and only eight skill-position players. Let me say that again: Out of 32 teams, exactly eight picked players who will do the insignificant work of, y'know, like, touching the ball.

Don't these teams understand fantasy football at all?

I kid. Obviously, this is the new NFL, one where the bigger, less visible players are safer for a general manager's job health. It's easy to trod out these 350-pound man-mountains and sell them as impact players at their respective positions. And there's no question today's NFL requires talented guys in the trenches. Marcell Dareus, Patrick Peterson and Aldon Smith might be difference-makers at their positions, but the Bills, Cardinals and 49ers still have unanswered questions at quarterback, questions I don't think Marc Bulger will be able to answer as a free-agent signee. That's not to say an NFL team should draft a signal-caller when it is convinced nobody available is any good. But let's face it: Someone among the legion of QBs who'll be drafted after the Bills took Dareus will wind up being a strong starter. Either Buffalo just didn't trust itself to be able to tell which one(s) or it was willing to risk that the guy it really wants would fall to it in the second round. But as any team who might have coveted Tim Tebow last year found out, good things don't always come to those who wait.

For fantasy, this presents interesting challenges. We have to try to see through the GMs who are protecting themselves by staying away from skill players early, abide by the GMs who aren't and try to figure out if a player fell because he's bad (and thus destined to be not very useful in fantasy) or because people don't want to take as many chances on skill guys as they used to. After all, if you could figure out what a good pro halfback looks like when he's in college, you wouldn't wait. You'd draft Jamaal Charles in the top 10 (he went No. 73 in '08). You'd draft Ahmad Bradshaw in the first round (he went No. 250 in '07). You'd draft Frank Gore in the top five (he went No. 65 in '05).

I admire the Falcons for having the courage in their convictions to deal a boatload of picks away and move up to grab a wide receiver they like. The Titans and Vikings are getting blasted Friday morning for selecting QBs "too early," yet at least they took a shot at remaking the skill positions which matter most. The Saints benefited from a sudden RB-phobia and got a really good running back late in the first round. And some very good skill players will fall to Friday and Saturday because some player personnel folks don't quite know what to make of them. Their indecision will be some bolder teams' (and fantasy owners') bounty.

Let's take a look at the skill guys who did go Thursday night. Let's see what their prospects look like for 2011 and how their selections affected the skill players already on their respective new teams.

1. Cam Newton, QB, Panthers. Remember when Jimmy Clausen was a good NFL prospect? Those were the days. The Panthers became the third team since 1970 to use top-50 picks on QBs in back-to-back years, apparently admitting last year was a big mistake and they want a re-do. I haven't totally given up on Clausen (statistically speaking, John Elway's first season in Denver was comparable to, and probably worse than, Clausen's in Carolina), but the Panthers have. Some folks think Carolina will go sign a veteran to start ahead of Newton this year while the first overall pick learns the terminology and field-reading skills necessary to the pro game, but you'd have to believe that, as with Tebow last season, Newton will get at least a few starts. Actually, Newton's fantasy prospects this season are a lot like Tebow's. Any small value he'll give you will come from his feet, not his arm. Tebow had five rushing touchdowns last season, so let's make that the over/under for Cam. The "entertainer and icon" has a lot to prove in terms of work ethic and leadership, but there's no question he's a huge man with lots of physical skills. If the Panthers could ever actually bring themselves to sit him for two years, a la Steve McNair, I think they could turn Newton into a Ben Roethlisberger type. But the pressure will be great to use him early. As for Clausen, he's held hostage for now. If he winds up going somewhere else with a legit chance to win a job, I'll take note.

4. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals. Guess Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell won't be fantasy stars next season after all. With Terrell Owens definitely gone from Cincinnati and Chad Ochocinco a likely roster casualty, Simpson, in particular, was looking like a potential factor in the Queen City. In the final two games of the regular season, he had 18 catches for 247 yards and three scores. But Green is three inches taller, 15 pounds heavier and (according to their respective combine times) a little faster than Simpson. He also has a big-stage, SEC-playmaking pedigree (23 TDs in 27 career college starts) that Simpson, who played at Coastal Carolina, can't touch. There's every reason to suspect the polished Green can start early on in the season, and perhaps even lead the team in receiving yards. Of course, the big question is who'll be throwing it to him. Carson Palmer swears he'll never wear a Bengals uniform again. There's a suspicion Cincy will take a QB at No. 36 overall Friday (Andy Dalton?), but that wouldn't exactly send Green's fantasy stock spiraling. We'll have to see what the Bengals wind up with under center after the musical chairs stop this summer. If they have a competent veteran, Green could verge on top-30 status as a fantasy wideout. If not, he'll scarcely be draftable.

6. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons. Jones' fantasy loss is Atlanta's gain. Unlike Green, who went to a team to which he figures to contend for a No. 1 job right away, Jones has Roddy White clearly established as the top dog in the Dirty. That means Jones doesn't have a prayer in the world of leading his team in targets, or even coming close, considering Tony Gonzalez is also still on hand. He becomes a candidate for a Jeremy Maclin-style rookie year: a clear second-banana role, with a tippety-top upside of maybe 50 receptions (given the Falcons' strong running game, probably fewer than that). In football terms, though, this looks like a touchdown. The only thing Michael Jenkins' defenders could hang their hat on was that Jenkins is a great downfield blocker, but so is Jones, and Jones is almost exactly Jenkins' size but is a much faster, scarier player to defend. He's also known as a terrific, really smart kid, which bodes well for his ability to crack the starting lineup sooner rather than later. He almost certainly won't be a fantasy starter in most leagues, but he'll be draftable. He means good things for Matt Ryan, who's a borderline fantasy starter in 10-team leagues, and maybe for Michael Turner, though I'm worried about Turner's drop-off at the end of last season. The most interesting impact here might be on White. As I wrote last summer, it's sometimes tempting to proclaim that the acquisition of a plausible No. 2 receiver is an automatic positive for the incumbent No. 1, since defenses will have to respect the other side of the field more. But can we really say with a straight face that if Jones becomes a weapon White will lead the entire NFL in targets, as he did last season (with 179)? I don't think so. I'm not downgrading White in a major way here, but I'll probably push him down a spot or two from his current No. 3 on my '11 fantasy receiver draft board.

8. Jake Locker, QB, Titans. My Facebook friends know that Thursday morning I actually mocked Locker to the Titans, though, as I'll discuss in a moment, I never thought he'd be the No. 2 QB taken. Locker has a chance to be fantasy's top rookie signal-caller this season because he's far more pro-ready than most of his compatriots, and he lands on a team with a huge "Vacancy" sign on the position. Vince Young really is gone. Rusty Smith isn't a big-time prospect and proved in a spot-start last year that he's nowhere near ready. If you were taking bets about whether Carolina or Tennessee is more likely to sign a stopgap veteran to hold down the position for its new rookie QB, you'd pick Carolina for sure. That might leave Locker as the leader in starts and attempts among all first-year QBs. Now, that doesn't mean it'll be completely smooth. Tennessee is transitioning to a new offensive system (under coordinator Chris Palmer, who admittedly did pretty well with another University of Washington alum named Mark Brunell), and outside of Kenny Britt (might be facing more legal troubles) the team doesn't have a ton of receiving talent. Plus Locker has well-known baggage: a 55.4 career completion percentage in college. As much as I love Jon Gruden's passionate defense of Locker -- which includes the assertion that he was getting chased and beaten up and had to throw away more than his fair share of passes, which hurt his completion rate -- I've seen enough of Locker to know he left a lot of plays on the field at U-Dub. Sure, Brett Favre improved his completion rate from college to the NFL, but few players do. Either way, rookie QBs are never fantasy gold, so you won't be using Locker to win your league title this year.

10. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jaguars. David Garrard rushed for five TDs last year and set career-highs in TD passes (23) and completion percentage (64.5). But he also threw a whopping 15 picks, many of which were Jacksonville killers, and he takes so many hits that his durability is constantly in question. And when he woke up Friday morning, he was no longer the Jags' future at his position. Shockingly, Gabbert dropped below Locker, and Jacksonville couldn't resist. They traded up with the Redskins (giving away their second-rounder) to grab an interesting combination of arm, footwork and passing anticipation. To begin the season, there would seem to be no question Garrard is the starter. But how long will that last? How long will Jack Del Rio, a coach perennially on the hot seat, be able to abide one of Garrard's cold streaks? I have to believe Gabbert will start a game by midseason, if only because Garrard gets hurt so frequently, and then all bets are off. If the kid succeeds, the job is his. Of course, whether he'll succeed is open for debate. He's coming from a shotgun-based, spread collegiate attack and was jittery in the pocket, often scrambling at the faintest sign of pressure. In what's supposed to be a high-octane attack a Missouri, Gabbert had 16 TDs and nine picks in his final season. As with all the other QB first-rounders, you're advised not to even consider Gabbert in a re-draft fantasy league. The bigger news is that Garrard's stock is in the toilet now, too.

12. Christian Ponder, QB, Vikings. I had Ponder going at No. 10 to the Redskins, so again, I'm much less shocked about this pick than many of the draft-night experts appeared to be. Need met opportunity for the Vikes, who lose Favre and Tarvaris Jackson and don't think Joe Webb is anywhere close to being starter-ready right now. That gives Ponder as good a chance as Locker to lead the rookies in pass attempts, and it means those two guys probably need to be ranked highest among rookie signal-callers (at least until you factor Newton's possible rushing-TD chops). New Minnesota offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave is a West Coast guy through and through, which meets Ponder's abilities well. He has an average arm but great accuracy, as his career 61.8 completion rate at Florida State indicates. I like this pick. The biggest worry you have about Ponder is his health because he had three surgeries on his throwing arm in his final two seasons in Tallahassee. Indeed, the Trent Edwards comparisons seem scarily apt, as Edwards was also a middling-armed, injury-prone kid coming out of Stanford. The Vikings hope the difference with Ponder is Adrian Peterson and some strong weapons at wideout. Remember Sam Bradford's rookie year under Pat Shurmur's dink-and-dunk offense last year in St. Louis? That's probably a best-case scenario for Ponder this season, and even that kind of stunk for fantasy. Bradford played every snap and finished only 20th in fantasy points.

26. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Chiefs. Baldwin jumps into a situation that's something like Jones' in Atlanta. Kansas City has an established No. 1 receiver, Dwayne Bowe, and was tired of seeing him double-teamed. So the Chiefs get a complementary player for the other side. Unfortunately for Baldwin, the difference between his situation and Jones' is that the Falcons passed on 53.7 percent of their offensive snaps last year (putting them in the middle of the NFL pack), while the Chiefs threw it 46.1 percent of the time (making them the league's most run-oriented team). So even if Baldwin overcomes his baggage, his usage upside is very limited. And don't count on Baldwin "getting it" right away. At Pitt he was known as a lazy player who never dominated the way his huge (6-foot-5, 225 pounds) frame said he should. He's not a top-end burner and doesn't run good routes. He isn't quick out of his breaks, and when a play breaks down his instinct isn't to come back to the ball. Of course, Baldwin is a big upgrade over whatever the Chiefs might otherwise have fielded as their starting split end, and he's instantly an attractive red zone candidate. We're not quite looking at a Dez Bryant type of effect on Miles Austin, but I think this does negatively affect Bowe. He had 19 targets inside the opponent's 20-yard line last season and nine inside the 10, numbers that figure to go down if Baldwin makes his way into the lineup. I feel better than ever about leaving Bowe outside of my wide receiver top 10 for this season.

28. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints. This is utterly insane value for a kid who, on talent alone, should've been a top-15 pick. In my opinion, it comes down to many GMs being scared to fail with high-profile skill guys. If they bust drafting a left tackle or defensive end, they can keep their jobs. But people remember the busts you draft at QB, RB and WR, and never let you forget. So now the RB-needy teams in this draft will take some kid in the fourth round, and he'll never really pan out, and the GM will say, "Hey, what did you expect? We took him in the fourth round!" Meanwhile, fortune favors the bold, and I say Ingram was a wonderful pick. Sure, his knee is a risk factor. Sure, he doesn't fit the Chris Johnson/Jamaal Charles mold of game-breaking burners. But he's a wonderful, frightening runner in traffic and always finds the gaps that move the chains. I grant you, if Ingram's ceiling is the guy we saw during his junior year, that's a problem. But he was battling a knee injury. The Heisman-winning sophomore campaign is what I remember. Anyway, he lands in a crowded New Orleans backfield, though according to Reggie Bush's tweet Thursday night ("It's been fun New Orleans") it's probably about to get a little less crowded. Trading one Heisman winner for another, the Saints get substantially bigger and tougher and, in Bush, rid themselves of a guy whose salary ($11.8 million for 2011) came nowhere close to matching his impact or health. So assuming he'll be elsewhere, what will the workload look like in the Big Easy? Well, Sean Payton has never loved Pierre Thomas in the red zone, so I say Ingram is instantly the TD-maker here, as Chris Ivory has much to prove returning from Lisfranc surgery and having a screw implanted in his ankle. Thomas has pretty much proven his body doesn't hold up to full-time work, so he'll get his 200 touches from scrimmage and Ingram will probably come in just under that. Neither is a fantasy starter, but you know what? If I had to draft one of them for a fantasy league today, I'd probably take Ingram.

HacheMan · May 1, 2011

Fantasy rookie factors emerge on Day 2
Christopher Harris

Twenty-one skill players were drafted Friday night in the second and third rounds: three quarterbacks, seven running backs, nine wide receivers and two tight ends. How many of them will have fantasy football value in 2011? To be honest, not that many. Some very good players landed in some pretty muddled situations. But even if many of the rookies won't be fantasy forces, some stars from their new teams will definitely be impacted.

Let's take 'em one by one and figure out if any early fantasy frontrunner rookies might emerge:

35. Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals. Cue the "orange-on-orange" jokes. (As a redhead, I'm allowed to say that.) In the draft's first 35 picks, Cincy made a statement about their same-old offense: Its days are numbered. Carson Palmer says he'll never play for the Bengals ever again (and Marvin Lewis says he considers Palmer retired), which could make Dalton the Week 1 starter, though fantasy players know rookie QBs rarely become fantasy relevant right away. Dalton has off-the-charts intangibles and is a prototypical "winner." There's a reason people compare him to Colt McCoy. He's about the same size and has the same weak arm. Can that change over time? It might. But if Dalton really is the starter right away, A.J. Green's upside dips appreciably, to say nothing of what happens to Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell. Longer-term, the recipe might be terrific. This year, Cincy's offense won't produce big numbers if Dalton is at the helm. I think the moves in the first two rounds also make it likelier that the Bengals re-sign Cedric Benson, to keep some hint of continuity in their offense.

36. Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers. Whereas the Dalton pick makes you believe Palmer might not play in Cincy in 2011, Jim Harbaugh grabbing Kaepernick makes you believe free-agent Alex Smith will return. Kaepernick has tons of athletic ability (that's an understatement), is a good kid with a high IQ and can make all the throws, but his footwork is terrible and he needs to learn a pro-style offense. There's very little way the Niners could be thinking of him as a Week 1 starter. And if he's a developmental guy, the team must sign a veteran; reading between the lines of what Harbaugh and GM Trent Baalke have said about their "openness" to re-signing Smith, you'd have to believe he's the leading candidate. I know, 49ers fans. I know. Yuck. Maybe they go elsewhere. Maybe they're in the Donovan McNabb/Matt Hasselbeck/Marc Bulger/Kevin Kolb/Vince Young market. That'll be decided later. For now, Kaepernick shouldn't have fantasy value in re-draft leagues.

38. Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals. Wow. For me, this was a C.J. Spiller moment. The Cardinals' defense is a wreck. They tried patching it with bailing-wire veterans last season, and it exploded in their faces. And their situation under center is no better, after the horrid one-year Derek Anderson experiment that everyone except the Cards knew would fail. And they draft a running back here? Much like the Bills' selection of Spiller at one of the few positions they already had good players, this one is a head-scratcher. Plus, if you're concerned about Beanie Wells' durability (and it's obvious Arizona is), is Williams really the guy you bring in? Didn't he just miss much of his final season at Virginia Tech with a hammy injury? I've got a feeling this is going to be a common refrain: I like the player, but am not crazy about the pick. He has the skills to be an every-down back, but it doesn't seem likely he'll get the opportunity, not with Wells around. True, Beanie was injury-prone last year, and maybe we don't have the full story about the knee injury that plagued him. Maybe it's severe. But Tim Hightower will probably still be in the desert, too, because he's a restricted free agent who the team tendered. What a mess. I probably put Williams highest on my running back list of this group, but none of these guys are fantasy starters right now. That's too bad.

43. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings. Obviously the top tight end in this draft, Rudolph lands in Bill Musgrave's new West Coast offense, which will likely use a bunch of two-tight end formations as part of an effort to play it close to the vest with rookie QB Christian Ponder. That's not great news for Randolph's immediate fantasy value. He'll be sharing targets with Visanthe Shiancoe and might already be a more accomplished blocker than the veteran, meaning he may stay home in protection a lot. The Rob Gronkowski comparisons will fly fast and furious about this guy, because they're identically sized and both suffered injuries in their final season of college, though Rudolph is a little faster and Gronk a little stronger. But don't expect Rudolph to come within a country mile of Gronk's studly rookie fantasy production in this offense. He's more of a guy to remember in future years.

44. Titus Young, WR, Lions. You'll hear DeSean Jackson comparisons, but Young isn't as fast as Jackson. He's 4.4 40-yard dash guy who's under 6 feet, which in my mind puts him more in the Percy Harvin neighborhood, which isn't a bad neighborhood to live in. Harvin might be a bit more solidly built and probably has better hands, but like Harvin, Young is a special-teams ace who can contribute right away in that department, as he learns the ins and outs of being an outside receiver. Obviously Calvin Johnson is on hand in Detroit, and I wouldn't say that the Lions drafting Young affects Megatron one bit. He'll still get his. Does Nate Burleson's value go down a little? Yeah, maybe. I can envision lots of circumstances in which Burleson plays out of the slot while Mega and Young play out wide, and if Burleson's not going down the fiel, his overall numbers probably get a little softer. As for Young, as a kick returner and No. 3 receiver, you're not getting a ton of value out of him outside return-yard leagues. And if his upside is Harvin, well, his downside might be Steve Breaston.

47. Lance Kendricks, TE, Rams. Rather than go with a wideout here as expected, the Rams decided to draft a tight end into a slot that's been a fantasy wasteland seemingly forever. (Let's see, since Ernie Conwell?) Add that noted tight end killer Josh McDaniels is the new offensive coordinator in St. Louis, and let's just say there are a few flies in this particular ointment. Listen, Kendricks averaged over 15 yards per catch his last season at Wisconsin at 240 pounds, putting me in the mind of the Bengals' Jermaine Gresham. But you saw how Gresham's rookie fantasy season worked out last year (not well), and realize that the Rams also have Michael Hoomanawanui and Fendi Onobun as young potential pass-catchers on their roster. I'm not saying Kendricks can't have a positive effect on the Rams and even have a few decent fantasy days this season. But you won't know when they're coming.

56. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots. For about 17 picks, it seemed we had a handle on New England's backfield. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, a true restricted free agent who the Pats tendered, would handle the big-back duties. Danny Woodhead would continue to be a waterbug weapon, too small to get more than, say, 10 touches per week. And Vereen would figure in a third-down-type role. He's a solid, if not spectacular, player who doesn't break tackles but has good one-cut burst, though he does need to become a better pass-blocker. But the works got gummed up later in the second round, when the Patriots took another rusher. See pick No. 73 below to read if I can make sense of this crowded situation

57. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions. There goes my Jahvid Best fetish. Listen, Leshoure isn't instantly a superstar. He's probably not ready to come into the NFL and be a 20-carry guy right away, and Detroit doesn't need him to be. But by trading up into the second round to get Leshoure, the Lions are telling us they don't trust Best to stay healthy over the course of a full season. That's heartbreaking (to me) because I think Best could be Jamaal Charles, given health and opportunity. Anyway, Leshoure is a 225-pound back with uncanny speed and shiftiness for a man that size, and he could be an every-down back somewhere down the road. For now, though, the knock on him is that he dances and goes down too easily, which isn't a great fit for the one-cut, stretch offense the Lions run. Don't rule out the Lions experiencing some frustration with him this season. However, as his 20 TDs last year at Illinois attest, he's a strong short-yardage rusher, so you'd expect him to take the rushing scores from Best. (I certainly think that means Kevin Smith will be playing elsewhere this season.) I would still probably rather own Best, for his carry-to-carry upside, than Leshoure this year. But he can't be considered a top-15 fantasy rusher any longer, which is where I had him before Friday night. Leshoure will be a high-upside, fantasy-bench guy who'll definitely be owned in all leagues this year.

58. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens. More than half the mock drafts I've read since February mocked Smith to the Ravens at No. 26 overall, based on the team's need for outside speed, so Baltimore must be pleased to get him in the second. Smith is a great kid who can run. He's 6-foot-1 and 205 pounds and runs a 4.42 40. That's not quite big enough to qualify him as a "Moneyball wideout" in my book, and I don't think he ever winds up being a No. 1 receiver. But the Ravens had the slowest receiving corps in the NFL last year, so Smith's speed will be welcome to guys such as Derrick Mason and (especially) Anquan Boldin, who saw so many double-teams it wasn't funny. Smith isn't a fantasy factor this year, unless you're in a return-yardage league. He's not an absolute elite burner and he doesn't run polished routes. He won't duplicate Mike Wallace's rookie season. But I really like what this does for Boldin, who I'll move up a few spots in my wide receiver ranks.

59. Greg Little, WR, Browns. I'm confused by this one. Little is a converted running back who's still learning how to run routes, but that's not my problem. It's just that he's a very big man who does nothing to alleviate concerns that the Browns don't have enough speed at wideout. I grant you Little has the potential to be a good fit in Pat Shurmur's West Coast offense. He's got great jumping skills and good hands, and at 230 pounds he's a beast to tackle. But I mean, didn't we hear all these same things about Mohamed Massaquoi? And Brian Robiskie? Little is in the same mold as those guys, and I worry that, at least at first; three players with very similar size/skill combinations will cannibalize each other. In an offense led by noodle-armed McCoy, who we know isn't going to take shots down the field (because of how Shurmur ran things in St. Louis last year), I'm left feeling meh. I know people talk about Little as "the next Mike Williams." But this offense isn't going to be nearly aggressive enough to produce any Mike Williamses. Add into the mix the notion that Little is known as a diva, and this season I don't view him as much more than a deep sleeper.

62. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins. Believe it or not, Thomas may actually have lucked into being the top fantasy rookie of the season. He may have gone 34 picks after Mark Ingram,and he may have been the fifth rusher selected, but Miami has a gaping hole at running back, and Thomas is a great candidate to fill it. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are free agents; one of them (Williams?) might return in a supplemental role, but I can absolutely see Thomas getting the keys, as Ryan Mathews was supposed to before he got hurt last year. Thomas is a 230-pounder with excellent feet and can catch the ball. Kansas State lined him up all over the field and used him to create mismatches, as the Bears do with Matt Forte. One concern is that Thomas battled a bad hamstring throughout the draft process and didn't run at the combine then failed to make a second 40-yard dash at his pro day because of an injured quad. All we need is a repeat of Mathews' injured rookie season, right? But boy, the opportunity is there. Thomas compared himself to Larry Johnson at the combine, and while that's ambitious, it ain't a bad on-field role model.

64. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers. Cobb runs a 4.45 40 and is a utility belt of a player, actually quite a lot like Titus Young, who went 20 picks earlier. Cobb plays all over the field and is at least as quick as he is fast. He might catch a only few passes per game at first but, like Harvin, has a good chance of making those touches count. The first thing this selection means is that if James Jones winds up being an unrestricted free agent this summer (obviously we won't know that until the labor situation clears up), Green Bay won't be re-signing him. Instead, Aaron Rodgers' top two receivers will be Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson, with the declining Donald Driver in the mix and Cobb working in a lot of four-wide sets. There's not much actual fantasy value for Cobb this year unless you get credit for return yards, but his presence is a significant hint about Green Bay's future.

69. Rob Housler, TE, Cardinals. Housler is very big (6-foot-5, 248 pounds) and very fast (he ran better than any other tight end at the combine) with the potential to join the ranks of catch-first tight ends who create matchup problems in the middle of the field. But in order to do so, he'll need to overcome a couple mitigating factors. First, the Cardinals don't use their tight ends as pass-catchers. The past three seasons, the most receptions any Arizona tight end has had in a single year is 15. Maybe that can change, but don't expect it to happen overnight. Housler's other problem is the same problem Larry Fitzgerald has. We don't know who the quarterback is yet. It'll probably be one of those free agents I mentioned at the top of this column. Forgive me for not turning handsprings.

71. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys. Murray had a whopping 759 carries at Oklahoma and battled nagging leg injuries through much his final two seasons, which led to a not-so-scintillating per-carry average. But he was healthy at the combine and ran the third-fastest time of any running back, ensuring he'd be a second-day pick. Murray played in the spread, so he'll have a transition to make, but he should be a good blocker from the outset of his pro career and he catches the ball well. He's 213 pounds, so he's no mere scatback, but I don't think you'd say Murray plays big. He doesn't break tackles and he pretty much needs to run right past you to make you miss. He's not a natural candidate to become the goal-line back that Dallas struggled to find last year. Where does that leave him? Well, Felix Jones is a better version of Murray, so he's still likely the starter. Tashard Choice is under contract, too. All three guys are really about the same size, and only Jones' speed sets him apart. What this might means most of all is that Marion Barber's time in Big D is ending.

73. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots. Boy, this is confusing. Rather than take a Leshoure or Thomas to be a true starting rusher, the Pats decided to draft Vereen and Ridley. Woodhead will certainly be around this season, and because he was tendered I really don't think Green-Ellis is going anywhere either. Four running backs? I guess. Fantasy-wise that sounds like typical Patriots. On different teams, either Vereen or Ridley could be a starting back, but they've got dramatically different skill sets. Vereen is quicker and a pass-catcher. Ridley is a load at 225 pounds, a first- and second-down player who won't catch it at all. If I'm wrong about BJGE and he winds up leaving New England, Ridley becomes the obvious short-yardage favorite and a potential inheritor of many short TDs. But if that doesn't happen? Man, I don't know. The main thing to come out of all this is that you shouldn't be drafting Green-Ellis to score 13 TDs and 176 fantasy points again this season. That just ain't happenin'.

74. Ryan Mallett, QB, Patriots. Well, obviously, he doesn't have a scintilla of fantasy value this year. Forget him in re-draft leagues. I tend to think he won't even win the backup job over Brian Hoyer, let alone challenge Tom Brady. In dynasty leagues. This really is probably the best type of situation for him, one in which he doesn't need to play for a good long while. His arm and anticipation make him the pro-readiest signal-caller in this draft, but his footwork could use polishing, and most importantly he needs a maturity uptick and an image rehab, things that can happen in New England. A couple years of being a model citizen, and who knows? Maybe he winds up Brady's heir, or maybe he goes the Matt Cassel route. Interestingly, neither Arizona nor Washington, two teams who desperately need a new signal-caller, decided to take one in the draft's first three rounds, presumably meaning they'll be investigating the free-agent market whenever it happens. Time will tell if they regret passing multiple times on Mallett. A fun note: The Patriots acquired the pick they used to select Mallett from the Vikings in the Randy Moss trade.

78. Austin Pettis, WR, Rams. Hooray. Just what the Rams need: another possession receiver. Pettis joins a roster that includes Brandon Gibson, Mardy Gilyard, Danny Amendola, a rehabbing Mark Clayton, a rehabbing Donnie Avery and a leg-injury-prone Danario Alexander. He's just one more guy in this receiving corps, albeit a bigger one at 209 pounds. Pettis has below-average speed but nice leaping ability and comes with a reputation of being able to catch passes in tight quarters, especially in the red zone. He's not a fantasy factor this year. Eventually he could start in the slot.

79. Leonard Hankerson, WR, Redskins. If I'd had my druthers, this is who the Rams would've taken a pick earlier. Sure, Hankerson has questions about his hands, and those are probably what caused him to fall into the third round. But everything else is there for Hankerson. He ran just as fast as Torrey Smith at the combine and is an inch taller and 10 pounds heavier, plus he runs significantly better routes than Smith. Yes, eventually Washington fans may wind up shaking their fists at the sky when Hankerson does a Braylon Edwards routine and drops a few passes in a big game. But better a guy who can get open and drops a few than a guy who's never open. With Santana Moss a free agent, the Skins need receivers, and hopefully nobody is counting on Malcolm Kelly any longer. Hankerson might get a chance to ply his wares with the first team in camp, alongside Anthony Armstrong. He's not a terrible deep sleeper, provided Washington gets its QB mess resolved.

82. Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers. Brown isn't big and isn't fast, but he's got great hands and is already a great route runner. He's never going to be a Vincent Jackson replacement regardless of what happens with San Diego's mercurial No. 1 receiver, and in fact his best position in the NFL will almost certainly be slot receiver. Does that happen as early as this season? That will depend on Patrick Crayton, who looked like the Chargers' No. 3 guy (behind Jackson and potential free agent Malcom Floyd) before Friday night. My guess is Brown gets a redshirt year, mixing into the crowded San Diego passing offense only occasionally as the season wears on. You hear Derrick Mason as a longer-term comparison for Brown.

83. Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Giants. A mini-run of wideouts ends here with Jernigan, another likely slot receiver. However, unlike Pettis and Brown, Jernigan is super-fast. He ran only 4.46 at the combine, which was one of the more shockingly slow times that day, but he saved his draft stock by running 4.35 at his pro day. Jernigan was a multiposition weapon at Troy, and the guy he reminds me of most is Roscoe Parrish of LSU and the Bills. Again, we're not talking about a player who's likely to get enough opportunity to make fantasy splash in his rookie campaign, especially not with Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham set on the outside for New York. But this pick may tell us all we need to know about Steve Smith's possible return to Gotham. Coming off microfracture surgery and unsigned for this season, Smith looks like a bad fantasy play this year, indeed.

96. Alex Green, RB, Packers. Green Bay was rumored to be interested in Ingram at No. 32 overall, and while Green isn't as talented a runner as Ingram, he does seem like a better fit for what the Packers need right away. Brandon Jackson may wind up being a free agent this summer, and my assumption now is that the Packers probably wouldn't re-sign him with Green on board. At Hawaii, Green played in a spread offense and caught the ball as well as any rusher in the country; in Green Bay, he'd be a natural to spell Ryan Grant and/or James Starks on third down. Now, I'm not trying to tell you Green is nothing but a waterbug; in fact he's 6 foot and 225 pounds, and long term could be a three-down starter. I'm just saying that the most projectable thing he did at Hawaii was catch the ball. That's likely to be his role at first with the Pack. But realize that for all the hype about Starks (and about Grant returning), Green does have a chance to take away some carries.

HacheMan · May 2, 2011

AFC Draft Grades
Silva did the NFC Grades. I have the American Football Conference. Let's do it:

Baltimore Ravens

27. Jimmy Smith, cornerback, Colorado.
58. Torrey Smith, wide receiver, Maryland.
85. Jah Reid, tackle, Central Florida.
123. Tandon Doss, wide receiver, Indiana.
164. Chykie Brown, cornerback, Texas.
165. Pernell McPhee, defensive end, Mississippi State.
180. Tyrod Taylor, quarterback, Virginia Tech.
225. Anthony Allen, running back, Georgia Tech.

Overview: The Ravens always seem to draft for talent and value over need. It just so happened that the draft set up perfectly to fill their needs with cornerback Jimmy Smith, burner wideout Torrey Smith, and tackle Reid in the first three rounds. Reid could be one of the draft's best sleepers. Jimmy Smith needs to keep his nose clean, but he could be the best press corner in the draft. This draft came together perfectly for G.M. Ozzie Newsome.

Grade: A-

Buffalo Bills

3. Marcell Dareus, defensive tackle, Alabama.
34. Aaron Williams, cornerback, Texas.
68. Kelvin Sheppard, linebacker, LSU.
100. Da'Norris Searcy, safety, UNC.
122. Chris Hairston, tackle, Clemson.
133. Johnny White, running back, UNC.
169. Chris White, linebacker, Mississippi St.
206. Justin Rogers, cornerback, Richmond.
245. Michael Jasper, defensive tackle, Bethel (TN.)

Overview: The Bills lucked out that Dareus fell to them at No. 3, and they smartly snapped him up. They passed on grooming a quarterback of the future at No. 34 with good options on the board to take a possible tweener in Aaron Williams from Texas.

Sheppard is typical of this solid, unspectacular draft. He'll help the Bills, but his ceiling is limited. The first four picks were on defense as the Bills try to play catch-up after an ill advised move to a 3-4 defense. They need to hit on more picks after a weak overall draft last year.

Grade: B-

Cincinnati Bengals

4. A.J. Green, wide receiver, Georgia.
35. Andy Dalton, quarterback, TCU.
66. Dontay Moch, defensive end, Nevada.
101. Clint Boling, guard/tackle, Georgia.
134. Robert Sands, safety, West Virginia.
167. Ryan Whalen, wide receiver, Stanford.
207. Korey Lindsey, cornerback, S. Illinois.
246. Jay Finley, running back, Baylor.

Overview: The Bengals were transparent in their desire to get Dalton in the second round, and he fell right to them. It was risky, but this is a results business and things couldn't have worked out better than to pair Dalton and Green, who was the top offensive player on most boards. They should be the foundation of the changing offense for years to come. The Bengals have quietly done a nice job with Raiders-like size/speed guys, and Moch fits right into that mold.

Grade: A-

Cleveland Browns

21. Phil Taylor, nose tackle, Baylor.
37. Jabaal Sheard, defensive end, Pittsburgh.
59. Greg Little, wide receiver, UNC.
102. Jordan Cameron, tight end, USC.
124. Owen Marecic, fullback/linebacker, Stanford.
137. Buster Skrine, cornerback, UT-Chattanooga.
150. Jason Pinkston, guard, Pittsburgh.
248. Eric Hagg, safety, Nebraska.

Overview: This team needed depth, and they know better than anyone that a top-10 pick doesn't automatically land a star. That's why their move out of the No. 6 slot for two firsts and five picks overall could ultimately set up the Holmgren/Schumer era for years.

Taylor was the best nose tackle in the draft, Sheard was a good pass rushing value in the second round, and UNC wideout Little could be a star. They still need more defensive help, but this draft should continue to build the team's foundation after a strong '10 draft.

Grade: A-

Denver Broncos

2. Von Miller, linebacker, Texas A & M.
45. Rahim Moore, safety, UCLA.
46. Orlando Franklin, tackle, Miami.
67. Nate Irving, linebacker, N.C. State.
108. Quinton Carter, safety, Oklahoma.
129. Julius Thomas, tight end, Portland St.
189. Mike Mohamed, linebacker, California.
204. Virgil Green, tight end, Nevada.
247. Jeremy Beal, defensive end, Oklahoma.

Overview: The Broncos didn't address their most glaring need on the defensive line, but this team is more than one draft away so taking the best player available makes more sense. We just aren't sure the Broncos did that.

We seem to be the only ones a little concerned that Miller is a better fit in a 3-4 defense. Moore seemed like a bit of a reach in the second round when so many good defensive tackles were available. Irving was one of our favorite sleepers in the draft and will upgrade the rush defense.

Grade: C

Houston Texans

11. J.J. Watt, defensive end, Wisconsin.
42. Brooks Reed, defensive end, Arizona.
60. Brandon Harris, cornerback, Miami.
127. Rashad Carmichael, cornerback, Virginia Tech.
144. Shiloh Keo, safety, Idaho.
152. Taylor Yates, quarterback, UNC.
214. Derek Newton, tackle/guard, Arkansas St.
254. Cheta Ozougwu, outside linebacker, Rice.

Overview: The Texans took a risk going with front seven players (Watt, Reed) with their first two picks when the secondary needed so much help, but we can't kill either pick because this team needs defenders period. (We are worried Reed's draft stock was inflated.)

This team has not drafted defense consistently well enough, which is why they spent their first five picks on helping new coordinator Wade Phillips. It's an uneven approach that speaks to this organization's desperation.

Grade: C+

Indianapolis Colts

Overview: After talking about the team's offensive lineman problem for a while, G.M. Bill Polian finally did something about it. We love that he took the draft's safest, most game-ready left tackle in Castonzo. Ijalana was a terrific sleeper pick in the second round and Carter adds needed size to the backfield. They need Nevis to produce for a weak run defense. It was a different-looking Colts draft, but an approach that should pay dividends as Peyton Manning ages.

Grade: B+

Jacksonville Jaguars

10. Blaine Gabbert, quarterback, Missouri.
76. Will Rackley, guard, Lehigh.
114. Cecil Shorts, wide receiver, Mt. Union.
121. Chris Prosinski, safety, Wyoming.
147. Rod Issac, cornerback, Middle Tennessee St.

Overview: G.M. Gene Smith has a signature to his drafts: He makes bold moves, and takes a few mid-round players most teams have never heard of. He kept up the trend.

The Jaguars finally drafted a quarterback for the first time since Byron Leftwich, moving up six picks to select Blaine Gabbert at No. 10. We're not huge Gabbert fans, but at least they didn't give up that much to acquire him.

Jacksonville's next four picks were off-the-radar options from Lehigh, Mt. Union, Wyoming, and Middle Tennessee St. They addressed a shoddy secondary late. Watch out for Shorts. It all looks a little wacky, but we give Smith the benefit of the doubt after two good drafts. Give him credit for originality.

Grade: B

Kansas City Chiefs

26. Jonathan Baldwin, wide receiver, Pittsburgh.
55. Rodney Hudson, guard, Florida St.
70. Justin Houston, linebacker, Georgia.
86. Allen Bailey, defensive end, Miami.
118. Jalil Brown, cornerback, Colorado.
135. Ricky Stanzi, quarterback, Iowa.
140. Gabe Miller, outside linebacker, Oregon St.
199. Jerrell Powe, defensive tackle, Mississippi.
223. Shane Bannon, running back, Yale.

Overview: A surprising draft, but we like it. One year after taking a bunch of team captains, the Chiefs drafted a few players that lacked consistent effort in college (Baldwin and Houston.) Ultimately, this is a talented group. Hudson should start on day one on the interior and third-rounder Allen Bailey is a very talented athlete with versatility. He may be a steal.

Stanzi was another fine value and can replace Brodie Croyle as a backup quarterback. Scott Pioli had a miserable '09 draft and a great '10 draft. We think he'll keep up the hot streak.

Grade: A-

Miami Dolphins

15. Mike Pouncey, guard/center, Florida.
62. Daniel Thomas, running back, Kansas St.
111. Edmond Gates, wide receiver, Abilene Christian.
174. Charles Clay, tight end, Tulsa.
231. Frank Kearse, defensive tackle, Alabama A&M.
235. Jimmy Wilson, cornerback, Montana.

Overview: Pouncey was a safe, solid pick at No. 15, but his last name may have bumped him up half a round. Dolphins coach Tony Sparano's backround is on the offensive line, so the team's shaky play there is a shortcoming of his Miami tenure.

The team gave up three picks to draft second-round running back Daniel Thomas, who will get every chance to replace Ronnie Brown. Fourth-round wideout Edmund Gates is an intriguing size/speed project. There is a risk this turns into a two-player draft for Miami and the two players may be good, not great.

Grade: C +

New England Patriots

17. Nate Solder, tackle, Colorado.
33. Ras-I Dowling, corerback, Virginia.
56. Shane Vereen, running back, California.
73. Stevan Ridley, running back, LSU.
74. Ryan Mallett, quarterback Arkansas.
138. Marcus Cannon, guard, TCU.
159. Lee Smith, tight end, Marshall.
194. Markell Carter, linebacker, Central Arkansas.
219. Malcolm Williams, cornerback, TCU.

Overview: Another predictably unpredictable Patriots draft. They took players other teams were afraid to: Mallett fell to round three because of "off-field" concerns, while Cannon fell to round five because of a non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma diagnosis. Both were arguably first-round talents.

A pair of mid-round running backs (Vereen and Ridley) should help right away, but passing on front seven help was curious. Solder was perhaps the most talented tackle in this class and could replace Matt Light immediately. Line coach Dante Scarnecchia will know what to do with Solder.

Oh, and by the way: The Patriots picked up an extra first and second round pick in next year's draft.

Grade: B+

New York Jets

30. Muhammad Wilkerson, defensive end, Temple.
94. Kenrick Ellis, defensive tackle, Hampton.
126. Bilal Powell, running back, Louisville.
153. Jeremy Kerley, wide receiver, TCU.
208. Greg McElroy, quarterback, Alabama.
227. Scotty McKnight, wide receiver, Colorado.

Overview: The Jets needed to address the age in their defensive front seven, and did so with Wilkerson and Ellis. The only problem: Ellis is currently facing a felony assault charge. The Hampton product was a risky pick to begin with, and the Jets reached because it was such a position of need.

The Jets drafted yet another running back (Powell) and a receiver (Scotty McKnight) as a favor to Mark Sanchez. This draft hinges on Ellis.

Grade: C

Pittsburgh Steelers

31. Cameron Heyward, defensive end, Ohio St.
63. Marcus Gilbert, tackle, Florida.
95. Curtis Brown, cornerback, Texas.
128. Cortez Allen, cornerback, Citadel.
162. Chris Carter, outside linebacker, Fresno St.
196. Keith Williams, guard, Nebraska.

Overview: The Steelers reliably stay in their draft slot, and somehow find contributors players that fit right in with what they do. Cameron Heyward could be a unheralded five-technique starter for years to come. He'll continue the team's tradition of late first round finds. Gilbert and cornerback Brown were solid picks where they were taken and fill needs for Pittsburgh. They didn't reach for secondary picks. Pittsburgh's drafts tend to look better after a few years, which is the whole idea.

Grade: B+

Oakland Raiders

48. Stefen Wisniewski, guard, Penn St.
81. Demarcus Van Dyke, cornerback, Miami.
92. Joseph Barksdale, tackle, LSU.
113. Chimdi Chekwa, cornerback, Ohio St.
125. Taiwan Jones, running back, Eastern Washington.
148. Denarius Moore, wide receiver, Tennessee.
181. Richard Gordon, tight end, Miami.
241. David Ausberry, wide receiver, USC.

Overview: They didn't have their first round pick, although the Richard Seymour has worked out well enough. (We'd argue Seymour has been overpaid, but that's another matter.) Wisniewski was a safe legacy pick, but lacks the high ceiling of his Pro Bowl uncle. Van Dyke was a backup in college, but at least the Raiders are now taking their track guys in the third round instead of earlier. Jones saves this somewhat generic draft because he could be a steal and gives an improving Raiders offense another dimension.

Grade: C

San Diego Chargers

18.Corey Liuget, defensive end, Illinois.
50. Marcus Gilchrist, cornerback, Clemson.
61. Jonas Mouton, linebacker, Michigan.
82. Vincent Brown, wide receiver, San Diego St.
89. Shareece Wright, corerback, USC.
183. Jordan Todman, running back, UConn.
201. Steve Schilling, guard, Michigan.
234. Andrew Gachkar, outside linebacker, Missouri.

Overview:Liuget is a terrific player and should be a day one starter, but we wonder if he would fit better in a 4-3 defense. We thought the Chargers would address their front seven even more, but we think Chargers G.M. A.J. Smith hit on a few early picks with Gilchrist and Brown. Mouton seems unlikely to be a three-down player considering how high he was taken. Smith needs to start hitting a few homeruns after some so-so drafts. Liuget, Gilchrist, and Brown give him a chance.

Grade: B-

Tennessee Titans

8. Jake Locker, quarterback, Washington.
39. Akeem Ayers, linebacker, UCLA.
77. Jurrell Casey, defensive tackle, USC.
109. Colin McCarthy, linebacker, Miami.
130. Jamie Harper, running back, Clemson.
142. Karl Klug, defensive end Iowa.
175. Byron Stingily, tackle, Louisville.
212. Zach Clayton, defensive tackle, Auburn.
251. Tommie Campbell, cornerback, California (PA).

Overview: Taking Locker at No. 8 could wind up getting coach Mike Munchak and G.M. Mike Reinfeldt fired in a few years. Locker will need time to develop, but the pressure to play him right away will be immense. We're just not sure you can solve accuracy issues at the pro level. Second round linebacker Akeem Ayers was just about the only player Jon Gruden didn't like in the draft; not a bad sign.

Grade: C-

HacheMan · May 8, 2011

Dynasty Rookie Ranks

Gregg Rosenthal and Evan Silva covered the immediate draft fallout, handing out grades for each team at NBC's Draft Headquarters. I'm not sure there's anybody in the fantasy football business who can speak with authority on all of the late-round freaks and frauds like Silva can.

With rookie drafts coming up this weekend, it's time to turn our attention to Dynasty and keeper leagues. My Top-50 list for standard-scoring leagues with 25-man rosters is as follows:

[SIZE=+1]Top 50 Overall[/SIZE]

Tier One

1. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
2. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
3. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals

Tier Two

4. Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals
5. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins
6. Greg Little, WR, Browns
7. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots

Tier Three

8. Delone Carter, RB, Colts
9. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
10. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens
11. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions
12. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins
13. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys
14. Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
15. Leonard Hankerson, WR, Redskins
16. Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers
17. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Chiefs

Tier Four

18. Jake Locker, QB, Titans
19. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jaguars
20. Christian Ponder, QB, Vikings
21. Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers
22. Alex Green, RB, Packers
23. Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers
24. Greg Salas, WR, Rams
25. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings
26. Titus Young, WR, Lions
27. Bilal Powell, RB, Jets
28. Edmond Gates, WR, Dolphins
29. Johnny White, RB, Bills

Tier Five

30. Lance Kendricks, TE, Rams
31. Virgil Green, TE, Broncos
32. Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns
33. Taiwan Jones, RB, Raiders
34. Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals
35. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots
36. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons
37. Tandon Doss, WR, Ravens
38. Ryan Mallett, QB, Patriots
39. Dion Lewis, RB, Eagles
40. D.J. Williams, TE, Packers
41. Luke Stocker, TE, Buccaneers
42. Rob Housler, TE, Cardinals
43. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders
44. Julius Thomas, TE, Broncos
45. Allen Bradford, RB, Buccaneers
46. Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Giants
47. Dwayne Harris, WR, Cowboys
48. Austin Pettis, WR, Rams
49. Jordan Todman, RB, Chargers
50. DaRel Scott, RB, Giants

In reviewing several mock drafts across the internet, the following trends have emerged:

Ingram, Green, and Jones are the top three picks. Green is No. 1 more often than not, though scoring system plays heavily into the decision at the top.

The next group features an eclectic mix of running backs and receivers. Ryan Williams is fourth more often than not, but some prefer Daniel Thomas instead. Little and Leshoure tend to follow those two, then all hell breaks loose based on personal preference. I've seen Helu, Vereen, Cobb, Baldwin, Hankerson, and even Newton in the top-six.

The QBs are a crapshoot -- and everyone knows it. Respected national analysts such as Mike Mayock, Greg Cosell, Michael Lombardi, Gil Brandt, Trent Dilfer, Ron Jaworski, ex-scout Dave Razzano, and former Bears QB Jim Miller all have a favorite, and there's no consensus on the one golden child.

As I stated last year, non-special running backs and receivers go way too high. Chalk it up to a relatively new cottage industry of internet prospect mavens, touting mediocre college talents as future NFL stars. As many as 20-25 skill-position players get hyped as potential first-round picks every year. The math just doesn't work.

On to the rankings by position.



Quarterback

1. Cam Newton, Panthers
2. Jake Locker, Titans
3. Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars
4. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
5. Christian Ponder, Vikings
6. Andy Dalton, Bengals
7. Ryan Mallett, Patriots
8. Ricky Stanzi, Chiefs
9. T.J. Yates, Texans
10. Tyrod Taylor, Ravens
11. Greg McElroy, Jets
12. Adam Froman, UFA
13. Nate Enderle, Bears
14. Pat Devlin, UFA
15. Jerrod Johnson, UFA
16. Josh Portis, UFA

It's hard to fall in love with any one QB this year. Even the early first-rounders have warts. Analyst opinion is all over the map on the seven QBs drafted in the first three rounds. I find Locker to be the most intriguing prospect in the draft, so let's take the No. 8 overall pick as a prime example.

With a strong running game, capable pass-blocking line, a go-to wide receiver, and a breakout candidate at tight end, Locker is set up for success as one of the most accurate outside-the-pocket passers NFL Network's Mike Mayock has ever seen. He's a first-class athlete with ideal mobility, a rifle arm, and the requisite "tough-ass" competitive streak. Locker had already made tangible progress with his inside-the-pocket passing skills leading up to the draft, and Titans coordinator Chris Palmer has a track record of improving his quarterbacks' accuracy.

Now we're cooking with fire, right? Not so fast. Fox Sports' Adam Caplan labeled Locker "realistically" a second-round talent in April after knocking him as a third-rounder in late January. NFL Network's Charley Casserly knew of no team in late March that had a first-round grade on Locker. Colleague Michael Lombardi went a step further, insisting some teams had Locker graded as a fourth-rounder because his lack of accuracy is a "fatal flaw." Colts president Bill Polian doubts that accuracy can even be taught at the NFL level. How divided are scouts on Locker's outlook? Some teams had considered moving Locker to safety.

For all of that criticism, former Bears QB and current Sirius NFL radio analyst Jim Miller compares Locker to Steve Young and Mark Brunell, suggesting Gabbert's accuracy issues are worse. "Rogue" ex-scout Dave Razzano has been pounding the table for Locker all off-season, going so far as to lambaste critics as "stupid." Razzano insists Locker threw a "great ball" in a low-percentage offense with no help from the offensive line or wide receivers. "If you look at their college stats, Favre and Locker are practically identical," said Razzano. "Tell me this guy doesn't move like Favre, scramble like Favre, throw like Favre. Pretend he has the number four on his jersey. His release is a lot like Favre, too."

How do you rank a player compared at various points to Favre, Steve Young, Mark Brunell, and Kyle Boller?

The scouting reports are that wildly divergent for every single QB prospect. Blaine Gabbert senses pressure that isn't there, struggles on third downs, and has accuracy issues down the field. Colin Kaepernick is a mechanical nightmare coming from a pistol-spread offense. Christian Ponder has a Chad Pennington ceiling. Andy Dalton is a talent-challenged reach who can't spin the ball as hard as needs to at the NFL level. Ryan Mallett is a golden-armed statue with a drug and alcohol problem.

. . .

Newton is the quintessential boom or bust pick. He was a system-dependent, scandal-ridden, mechanical mess as a one-year wonder in college. Ex-scout Russ Lande points out, "No college QB who played in the 'Run Option' offense has developed into a good starting NFL QB. See Alex Smith and Vince Young." As a more athletic Josh Freeman, though, the boom potential is significant enough that he could end up a fantasy difference-maker in a best-case scenario. He's No. 1 on this list purely because his ceiling is highest even if his floor is Akili Smith.

Running Back

1. Mark Ingram, Saints
2. Ryan Williams, Cardinals
3. Daniel Thomas, Dolphins
4. Shane Vereen, Patriots
5. Delone Carter, Colts
6. Mikel Leshoure, Lions
7. Roy Helu, Redkins
8. DeMarco Murray, Cowboys
9. Alex Green, Packers
10. Kendall Hunter, 49ers
11. Johnny White, Bills
12. Bilal Powell, Jets
13. Taiwan Jones, Raiders
14. Stevan Ridley, Patriots
15. Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons
16. Dion Lewis, Eagles
17. Allen Bradford, Buccaneers
18. Jordan Todman, Chargers
19. DaRel Scott, Giants
20. Evan Royster, Redskins
21. Jamie Harper, Titans
22. Anthony Allen, Ravens
23. Chad Spann. UFA
24. Derrick Locke, UFA
25. Baron Batch, Steelers
26. Jay Finley, Benglas
27. Mario Fannin, UFA
28. Noel Devine, UFA
29. Graig Cooper, UFA
30. John Clay, UFA

My initial reaction to Ingram in New Orleans was less than enthusiastic, picturing a backfield still bogged down in the fantasy quagmire. After delving deeper, however, I would confidently take him over the two playmaking receivers at No. 1 overall. Reggie "It's Been Fun New Orleans" Bush is irrelevant to Ingram's future since they don't play the same position in Sean Payton's offense. Pierre Thomas just signed a four-year deal for backup wages. Chris Ivory was sidelined with injuries to his knee, head, shoulder, and hamstring before ending his rookie season with a Lisfranc fracture. The Saints didn't fork over a second-rounder and next year's first-round pick to play mix-and-match football with Ingram. The clear-cut top back in the draft is expected to take over feature-back duties from Day One.

If Payton's pass-heavy offense is viewed as the No. 1 obstacle to Ingram's fantasy success, it shouldn't be. Payton has shown a willingness to run a balanced game-plan whenever he's had an effective interior rushing attack. Back in 2006, Deuce McAllister racked up 244 carries while the Saints finished 12th in rushing attempts. Three years later, Payton's backfield was sixth in the NFL in attempts behind the 1-2 punch of Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell. If his backs are healthy and effective on the ground, Payton has no qualms about giving them the rock.

Thomas slots in as the feature back in Miami. Just beware the Dolphins aren't finished remodeling the backfield. … Williams is the second-most talented back in the draft. He's no lock to beat out a healthy Beanie Wells a rookie, though. … Vereen is immediately the best all-around back in New England. … With Joseph Addai's Indy future in question and Donald Brown failing to establish himself as the future, Carter is walking into a primo fantasy situation. … I can't draft Leshoure as a top back when he's set to function as the change-of-pace behind a more talented player for the foreseeable future. … Helu landed in a best-case scenario with the Redskins' one-cut scheme as an ideal fit. Directly behind injury-plagued, speed-challenged Ryan Torain is never a bad spot to start a career. … Murray is going to have to bulk up and maintain playmaking ability at the same time. That's easier said than done. Just ask Felix Jones (who is a better back, by the way).

A word about smallish, mid-round change-of-pace backs like Hunter and Rodgers: These rankings are for standard-scoring leagues with 25--30 deep rosters. If you play in monster-sized PPR leagues employing a flex spot, then Hunter and Rodgers should be moved up the list. As a general rule, I would never draft to fill a flex spot. I'm aiming higher.



Wide Receiver

1. Julio Jones, Falcons
2. A.J. Green, Bengals
3. Greg Little, Browns
4. Randall Cobb, Packers
5. Torrey Smith, Ravens
6. Leonard Hankerson, Redskins
7. Vincent Brown, Chargers
8. Jonathan Baldwin, Chiefs
9. Greg Salas, Rams
10. Titus Young, Lions
11. Edmond Gates, Dolphins
12. Tandon Doss, Ravens
13. Denarius Moore, Raiders
14. Jerrel Jernigan, Giants
15. Dwayne Harris, Cowboys
16. Austin Pettis, Rams
17. Kealoha Pilares, Panthers
18. Aldrick Robinson, Redskins
19. Cecil Shorts, Jaguars
20. Niles Paul, Redskins
21. Jeremy Kerley, Jets
22. Kris Durham, Seahawks
23. Terrence Toliver, UFA
24. DeAndre Brown, UFA
25. Ricardo Lockette, UFA
26. Vidal Hazelton, UFA
27. Stephen Burton, Vikings
28. DeMarco Sampson, Cardinals
29. Ronald Johnson, 49ers
30. Ryan Whalen, Bengals

Full disclosure: A.J. Green is a better prospect than Julio Jones. I have the two head-and-shoulders above the rest of the crowd and near coin-flip territory for Dynasty drafts. When push comes to shove, I'll take the one catching passes from Matt Ryan on a team run by the two-time NFL Executive of the Year over the one catching passes from Andy Dalton on a team run by the worst owner in sports -- the one who created the Loyalty Clause to keep "Bengalized" victims such as Carl Pickens, Corey Dillon, Takeo Spikes, Chad Ochocinco, and now Carson Palmer in stripes. As the most dysfunctional franchise in the NFL over the past 20 years, the Bengals can hit tailspin mode in any given year.

GM Thomas Dimitroff is confident that Jones has zero bust factor. Roddy White is entering his age-30 season. Within 2-3 years, I'd bet on Jones outproducing White as Ryan's favorite target. I can't fault Dynasty owners for sticking with Green's talent edge, but I can't recommend him over Jones if I'd be reluctant to touch the situation in Cincinnati for the next few years.

Baldwin was overdrafted by the Chiefs. More problematic, he's behind Dwayne Bowe in the Chiefs' run-first offense with an often scattershot QB. … Cobb is a poor man's Percy Harvin. … Hankerson has a shot to enter the season as the Redskins' No. 1 receiver pending the free agent process. … Brown was drafted to be a starter in San Diego, though that may take a year or two with free agents Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd likely returning. … Salas has a better chance than Pettis of emerging as the Rams' top possession receiver. … Gates is considered a destitute man's Mike Wallace. … Jernigan is overrated as both a prospect and a fantasy factor.

Tight End

1. Kyle Rudolph, Vikings
2. Lance Kendricks, Rams
3. Virgil Green, Broncos
4. Jordan Cameron, Browns
5. D.J. Williams, Packers
6. Luke Stocker, Buccaneers
7. Rob Housler, Cardinals
8. Julius Thomas, Broncos
9. Charles Clay, Dolphins
10. Daniel Hardy, Buccaneers

Rudolph is the consensus top all-around talent at the position, but he won't be an instant impact fantasy factor alongside Visanthe Shiancoe. … Always the willing acolyte to his mentor, Josh McDaniels drafted Kendricks with visions of Aaron Hernandez dancing in his head. … Green was the best receiving tight end in the draft and should start stretching defenses vertically as a rookie. … This year's Jimmy Graham, Cameron has a Todd Heap ceiling in Cleveland. … Williams will need a Jermichael Finley injury to make an impact. … Stocker won't threaten Kellen Winslow for at least a couple of years. … Housler went to an offense that hasn't seen a tight end go past 25 catches or 250 yards in a season under Ken Whisenhunt. … Clay is a speedy field-stretching H-back to complement Anthony Fasano.

HacheMan · May 9, 2011

2011 Draft: Impact Rookies
One of the strangest offseasons in NFL history has prohibited us from doing what we do best -- projecting how players in new roles will fare. But at long last, an oasis came to us in the form of the draft.

Last year's rookie class produced high expectations in the form of guys like Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best, C.J. Spiller and Dez Bryant. This year's class does not project to generate nearly as much hype from a fantasy perspective. Out of all the running backs taken last week, only Miami's Daniel Thomas appears to have a wide open path to a full-time gig.

Still, diamonds in the rough will certainly emerge. For example, we pegged Mike Williams (TB) as a quality flier last August and it paid off handsomely.

In order to generate these rankings, we took a composite ranking of four lists (Evan Silva, Chris Wesseling, Gregg Rosenthal, Adam Levitan). Remember that these are for the 2011 season only -- Wesseling covered the Dynasty outlook of the rookies here.

1. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins
The Dolphins gave up three draft picks to land Thomas, so the odds of free agents Ricky Williams and/or Ronnie Brown coming back are remote. While GM Jeff Ireland has said he wants to add a "scat back," no one is going to threaten the 230-pound Thomas on early downs. We wouldn't rule out 250 carries as a rookie.

2. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
It's crowded right now in coach Sean Payton's situational backfield, but Ingram is a good bet to rise to the top. Pierre Thomas can never stay healthy and is coming off ankle surgery. Reggie Bush's massive salary is expected to be dumped. And Chris Ivory is a former undrafted free agent coming off a major foot injury. On top of all that, the Saints gave up their 2011 second-round pick and 2012 first-rounder to snag Ingram, the 2009 Heisman Trophy winner.

3. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
We don't know who will be quarterbacking the Bengals, but we can safely pencil in Green opposite Jerome Simpson with Jordan Shipley in the slot. Green may very well be the best pure offensive player in this year's rookie class, projecting as a difference-making deep threat right out of the gate. He should lead the Bengals in targets as a rookie.

4. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins
We have all seen what coach Mike Shanahan can do with relatively unknown running backs. Helu, a favorite sleeper of draft experts like Evan Silva, fits perfectly as a one-cut, downhill runner in Washington's zone-blocking scheme. We like him to beat out injury-prone Ryan Torain to win the starting job sooner rather than later.

5. Greg Little, WR, Browns
Off-field woes are the main reason Little continues to fly under the radar. But at 6'2/231 with running back skills after the catch, he immediately steps in as the Browns' most talented receiver. On a roster devoid of playmakers, the Browns will rightfully feel the need to get the ball in Little's hands often.

6. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
Atlanta gave up the farm to move up for Jones. By surrendering their 2011 and 2012 first-round picks, 2011 and 2012 fourth-round picks and 2011 second-round pick, they are telling us that Jones will have a major offensive role right out of the gate. The only problem is that Atlanta's first option remains the running game and the second option is Roddy White.

7. Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals
Due to injuries, inconsistency and fumbles, Beanie Wells has disappointed more than he's shined. The Cardinals say they aren't sending a message to Beanie, but using the No. 38 pick on Williams when you have holes all over the field speaks volumes. Williams is a plus receiver out of the backfield and will immediately threaten the workloads of both Wells and Tim Hightower.

8. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions
We knew durability would be an issue with Jahvid Best as soon as he was drafted. And after an injury-plagued rookie campaign, Leshoure is certain to have a major role. At 6'0/227, the second-round pick will be the 2011 goal-line back. And with the Lions' offense looking explosive, Leshoure is a good bet to have plenty of scoring opportunities.

9. Leonard Hankerson, WR, Redskins
The cupboard is bare at all the Redskins' skill positions, including wide receiver. Santana Moss is a free agent, leaving deep threat Anthony Armstrong and disappointing Malcolm Kelly atop the depth chart. Hankerson, who broke Michael Irvin's single-season touchdown catches record at Miami, has the look of a No. 1 receiver. His upside will have a lot to do with who ends up quarterbacking the Redskins.

10. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Chiefs
The Chiefs were absolutely desperate for a No. 2 receiver after using street free agents and practice squad talent at the position last year. Enter Baldwin, who has the look of a premier red-zone threat at 6'4/228. Still, the Chiefs led the NFL in rushing attempts last year at 34.8 per game and will likely be around that number again. As the No. 2 receiver, Baldwin's upside is limited.

11. Delone Carter, RB, Colts
It's a little odd that the pass-first Colts drafted a running back with limited receiving skills, but they were desperate for short-yardage help. Carter, who is built like a bowling ball, can certainly help there. However, don't expect the Colts to let free agent Joseph Addai walk because Carter is in the mix. The rookie figures to be used in a very specific role.

12. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots
Chris Wesseling ranked Vereen 7th on his list, six spots higher than anyone else. "I think he's immediately the best running back in New England. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is basically a kill the clock/take the air out of the ball back, which the Patriots got to do a ton in the second half last year. Not sure they can count on that again." Vereen fits nicely in New England, but the amount of reps in this crowded backfield will be a major obstacle.

13. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys
The Cowboys couldn't pass on the impressive measurables Murray has, but effectiveness is another story. He averaged just 4.24 yards per carry in his final two seasons at Oklahoma and proved to be extremely injury prone. Talk that he'll beat out Felix Jones for the feature back job is a stretch -- even taking Tashard Choice's backup gig won't come easy.

14. Titus Young, WR, Lions
The smallish Young fits perfectly as a deep threat, third receiver and kick returner for the Lions. Detroit certainly runs enough three-wide sets for Young to be on the radar, but he'll have to earn his way up the totem pole. Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Jahvid Best and Brandon Pettigrew all need their mouths fed in the passing game.

15. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons
Jerious Norwood was never able to fill the scat back job, so the tiny Rodgers is going to get a chance. But at 5'6/196, Rodgers is going to struggle badly in pass protection. If he can't beat out Jason Snelling for third-down reps, there isn't going to be much to see here in fantasy.

16. Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
Gregg Rosenthal ranked the No. 1 overall pick 8th on his list, 10 spots ahead of anyone else. "I think Newton will start sooner than later and has the skill set to be a decent QB2 with a ceiling like Vince Young's rookie year. That's better than most of these backup running backs and shaky wide receivers." The fact that Newton ran for 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns at Auburn last season is intriguing.

17. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens
With slow, declining veterans Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason atop the depth chart, the Ravens badly needed a deep threat for Joe Flacco's big arm. Smith can get vertical right away at the NFL level, but the main concern here is targets. Smith will likely need an injury to Boldin or Mason to truly be relevant.

18. Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers
The Chargers are tentatively expected to bring back both Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd. Therefore Brown, a possession receiver, is more appetizing as a keeper prospect than re-draft. Nevertheless, anyone on a Philip Rivers quarterbacked team bears watching. Rivers led the NFL last year in passing yards and yards per attempt.

19. Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers
Hunter will start off as a change-of-pace back behind workhorse Frank Gore, but may be more talented than Anthony Dixon. If Gore were to go down, Hunter projects as the man to own based on his all-around game. He has plus receiving and pass protection skills. Brian Westbrook is gone.

20. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots
Ridley is a bruiser that is an immediate threat to BenJarvus Green-Ellis' early-down role. He's also part of a four-headed monster at running back and will therefore be used situationally. Likely to enter the season fourth on the depth chart, Ridley is hard to get excited about.

ALSO RECEIVING VOTES
21. Alex Green, RB, Packers
22. Christian Ponder, QB, Vikings
23. Edmond Gates, WR, Dolphins
24. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
25. Taiwan Jones, RB, Raiders
26. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings
27. Lance Kendricks, TE, Rams
28. Kris Durham, WR, Seahawks
29. Greg Salas, WR, Rams

HacheMan · May 10, 2011

The 2011 Quarterback Market

The 2011 quarterback market will get interesting when the lockout ends and transactions are allowed. Vince Young and Donovan McNabb will breathe life into unrestricted free agency, while Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, and possibly Carson Palmer will become attractive trade targets.

Until then, we can only speculate about the future. The Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals is in no hurry to rule on the validity of its temporary stay of the lockout injunction. In the meantime, Chris Wesseling and I will be rolling out position-by-position market analysis.

These will be the most thorough position breakdowns on the internet. We'll touch on every sort of availability, from free agents of all kinds to trade targets and candidates for release.

Let's start with quarterbacks certain to be available after the transactions freeze.

[SIZE=+1]Surefire Quarterback Free Agents[/SIZE]

1. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks

Scouting Report: Hasselbeck, going on age 36, has spent his entire career in West Coast offenses. Leading Seattle's surprising playoff run helped his stock, but this is a player in decline. Hasselbeck hasn't thrown more touchdowns than interceptions or played 16 games since 2007. He's 12-24 in his last 36 starts, averaging 6.34 yards per attempt with a 58.3 completion rate. Reduced arm strength has made him increasingly turnover prone. Hasselbeck is still a natural leader around whom teammates rally. He'd be a fine stopgap for teams that don't plan to contend.

Availability: Seattle made a half-hearted attempt to re-sign Hasselbeck before the lockout. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell recently reached out to the former three-time Pro Bowler, but ultimately the Seahawks have shown no urgency to re-sign Hasselbeck. He could be a fall-back plan in Arizona if the Cardinals don't land Kolb or Orton. Another option is Tennessee, where Hasselbeck has ties to GM Mike Reinfeldt and could serve as a bridge to No. 8 overall pick Jake Locker.

Prediction: Titans on a two-year, $9 million contract.

2. Marc Bulger, Ravens

Scouting Report: Bulger didn't play a regular season snap as Joe Flacco's backup in 2010, but was competent in the preseason, completing 21-of-32 throws (65.6%) with a 7.5 YPA. Some reports out of Baltimore claimed he was sharper than Flacco in practices. Bulger has played in vertical offenses for Mike Martz, Scott Linehan, and Cam Cameron. In Bulger's last two seasons as a starter, he combined for 22 touchdowns, 28 interceptions, a 6.25 YPA, and 75 sacks taken with a 4-23 record. Bulger looked shell shocked before holding the clipboard last year. Perhaps a season off from taking hits has rejuvenated Bulger's body. But that's not something we'd bet on.

Availability: Even after the draft, the NFL is so quarterback needy that Bulger could find a legitimate chance to start. (If he wants it, and we have our doubts.) He's been heavily linked to Arizona, and recent reports suggest the Redskins could join the bidding. If Bulger is signed to be a starter, he seems unlikely to excel without a top-ten pass blocking line. No halfway competitive teams will view him as more than a backup.

Prediction: Cardinals on a three-year, $9 million backup's contract.

3. Alex Smith, 49ers

Scouting Report: Smith was the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft, but his downfall is directly attributable to middle-round talent. He has average arm strength, has been injury prone, is easily rattled, and his accuracy hasn't improved since his Utah days. Smith is not an aggressive football player. Though intelligent, Smith is not a quick thinker on the field and prefers check downs to vertical strikes. He is moderately athletic and has played in every type of offense imaginable.

Availability: 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh has given Smith a playbook, showing the utmost confidence that he'll return to open the season as the starter in San Francisco. He won't be on a long rope, however, after Harbaugh traded up to draft Colin Kaepernick with the 36th overall pick.

Prediction: 49ers on a two-year, $7 million contract.

4. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings

Scouting Report: Jackson has plenty of arm strength and is a positive-yardage running threat, averaging 4.5 yards per carry in his career. His talent is undeniable. Jackson is highly inconsistent, however, and tends to buckle under pressure, both of the defensive and big-game variety. In six combined prime-time and playoff starts, Jackson is 99-of-190 (52.1%) for 979 yards (5.15 YPA), two touchdowns, and nine interceptions with a 1-5 record. He is an extremely erratic thrower. Unless you're Brad Childress, Jackson is no one's idea of a starting quarterback.

Availability: The Vikings showed Jackson the door by failing to tender him as a restricted free agent. Childress is out of the league, but top lieutenant Darrell Bevell has resurfaced as the Seahawks' offensive coordinator. Jackson is also familiar with Andy Reid's Philadelphia offense. The Eagles are expected to trade Kevin Kolb, leaving only Mike Kafka behind Michael Vick.

Prediction: Eagles on a one-year, $2 million contract.

5. Bruce Gradkowski, Raiders

Scouting Report: He's essentially Jeff Garcia. An undersized scrambler, Gradkowski ran a 4.5-flat at his 2006 Pro Day and has averaged 4.2 yards per rushing attempt in his career. While Gradkowski's arm strength and per-attempt passing stats are thoroughly unimpressive, he has shown the ability to move an offense for short stretches, mostly with improvisation. The 28-year-old has played primarily in West Coast-style offenses. While he's a bottom-barrel No. 2 quarterback, Gradkowski can provide a spark and would probably be one of the better No. 3s in the league.

Availability: The Raiders moved on from Gradkowski after axing his biggest fan, former head coach Tom Cable. Not receiving a tender, Gradkowski could resurface as a backup with Cable in Seattle. Because of his limited arm talent, Gradkowski is a quarterback who must be manipulated by the offense he plays in. A horizontal passing attack would suit his skills best.

Prediction: Seahawks on a one-year, $850,000 contract.



6. Billy Volek, Chargers

Scouting Report: Volek has spent the last four years backing up Philip Rivers, and Rivers hasn't missed a start. The 35-year-old has been shaky in preseasons, two years ago completing 70.7 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions, but last year regressing to a 0:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 50.7 completion rate. Volek is a frail-looking quarterback in decline. He's hit the market before, and either no NFL teams had interest in giving him a chance to start, or Volek was just satisfied with backup jobs. He'd be a very poor bet to last more than eight starts.

Availability: The Chargers didn't draft a quarterback, so they may be hoping that Volek will return behind Rivers. Position coaches under whom Volek has worked include Rob Chudzinski (current Panthers offensive coordinator) and Cam Cameron (Ravens offensive coordinator).

Prediction: Ravens on a two-year, $3.5 million contract.

7. Rex Grossman, Redskins

Scouting Report: Grossman has plenty of athleticism and arm strength, but is one of the worst decision-making quarterbacks of our generation. Wildly erratic, the former first-round pick has completed 54.2 percent of his career passes and never topped the 56.0 mark in an individual season. Grossman recorded a 29 on the Wonderlic before the 2003 draft, but his play can be more indicative of a single-digit score. His performances are incredibly unpredictable. One week, Grossman will look like a serviceable NFL starter. He will cost his team a game in the next.

Availability: The Shanahans were itching to play Grossman over Donovan McNabb last year, and play-caller Kyle has an obvious affinity for the onetime Super Bowl starter. The Bengals have also been linked to Grossman, but Washington offers his best path to play time, in addition to coaching staff support. He could conceivably end up battling John Beck for the starting job.

Prediction: Redskins on a one-year, $1.5 million contract.

8. Troy Smith, 49ers

Scouting Report: Smith developed a malcontent reputation in Baltimore after falling behind Joe Flacco and Marc Bulger. The Ravens waived him at final cuts, and Smith signed with San Francisco two days later. The 2006 Heisman winner experienced his first meaningful playing time under Mike Singletary, going 3-3 in six starts with six touchdowns (five pass, one rush) and a rock-solid 8.1 yards-per-attempt average. Smith has impressive arm power for a smallish passer (6'0/215) and is not afraid to throw downfield. He struggled with ball security (six fumbles, four INTs) and accuracy (50.3 completions), however, and lost the job to Alex Smith at season's end.

Availability: We suspect there is a feeling around the league that Smith thinks he's better than he is because of how he complained his way out of a respected organization like the Ravens. But he put enough on film in 2010 to warrant a contract. The 49ers did not tender Smith, and he could catch on with a team that runs a vertical offense as a possible No. 2 quarterback. He has history with Raiders coach Hue Jackson, who was Smith's position coach in 2008 and 2009.

Prediction: Raiders on a one-year, $850,000 contract.

9. Kerry Collins, Titans

Scouting Report: Collins, 38, has 28 starts over the past three seasons, completing 57.3 percent of his passes with a 6.30 YPA average. His TD-to-INT ratio is 32:25. The numbers look serviceable, but keep in mind that Collins was protected by one of the NFL's top running games. Ultimately, Collins is a game-manager quarterback with scant athleticism, mediocre accuracy, and very few years left ahead of him. While Collins still has arm strength to make all of the throws, he is a deliberate-moving pocket passer who requires top-notch pass blocking to move an offense.

Availability: He should be viewed as a last-ditch option behind Jake Locker in Tennessee, and even teams desperate for an extremely short-term stopgap ought to aim higher. Collins is best suited for a clear backup role in an offense that requires no movement skills at quarterback.

Prediction: Chargers on a one-year, $1 million contract.

10. Trent Edwards, Jaguars

Scouting Report: Perhaps the most injury-prone QB in football, Edwards has suffered an ailment of some sort every season since his senior year in high school. He has a mild case of Compartment Syndrome that causes tissue swelling and prevents proper blood-muscle flow for healing. Edwards has an adequate arm and athleticism, but poor pocket presence (possibly due to his injury history) and is only comfortable checking down to backs and underneath targets. In 33 career starts, the 27-year-old is 14-19 with a 60.5 completion rate but a 26:30 TD-to-INT ratio.

Availability: The Jaguars didn't tender Edwards before the March 3 deadline, effectively washing their hands of last year's in-season waiver pickup from Buffalo. It's worth noting that the Jets also put in a waiver claim last September, but Jacksonville "won out" because of its worse record. Also notable: 2010 Jaguars QBs coach Mike Shula now holds the same role in Carolina.

Prediction: Panthers on a two-year, $3.5 million contract.

Other surefire free agent quarterbacks: Nate Davis, Chad Pennington, Brian Brohm, Jim Sorgi, Chris Simms, Charlie Frye, Patrick Ramsey, Josh McCown.

[SIZE=+1]Three- to Five-Year Restricted Free Agents[/SIZE]

1. Dennis Dixon, Steelers

Scouting Report: Dixon's 2010 season ended with a torn left meniscus, the same knee in which he tore his ACL as a college senior. While the latest injury necessitated only arthroscopic surgery, multiple operations on the same knee is a long-term concern. When healthy, Dixon has shown the ability to win camp battles over established veterans (Byron Leftwich, Charlie Batch), and move an offense with his legs (5.6 career yards per carry). Though still a work in progress as a passer, Dixon is 2-1 in three career starts, including a Week 1 win over Atlanta last year and a 20-17 loss in Baltimore the season prior. He's got moxie, and seems to be a contagious leader.

Availability: A three-year vet, Dixon is a restricted free agent regardless of a new CBA. He received a tender before March 3, although the level is unclear. Even if it was of the "original pick" variety -- Dixon was a fifth-round choice in 2008 -- NFL teams may hesitate to surrender substantial compensation for a quarterback with two year-ending injuries to the same knee in four seasons.

Prediction: Steelers on his one-year restricted tender.

2. Tyler Thigpen, Dolphins

Scouting Report: Thigpen's downfall has not been related to talent or confidence. He plays with a gunslinger mentality, is a positive-yards run threat, and can make NFL throws. Thigpen has been unable to grasp a pro-style offense after playing in Coastal Carolina's Pistol Spread, and struggled mightily off the bench last year in Miami, completing 53.2 percent of his passes with two touchdowns, two picks, a fumble, and eight sacks taken in five appearances. The Dolphins were shut out in Thigpen's only start. He remains an interesting, if developmental project at age 27.

Availability: The Fins extended Thigpen a second-round tender, the validity of which hinges on the labor situation. Thigpen has enjoyed his lone NFL success in a Chan Gailey offense, which incorporates Pistol concepts and lots of shotgun. Ryan Fitzpatrick needs a backup in Buffalo, so it makes sense that Thigpen would be a strong option there should his free agency be unrestricted, or the Fins be interested in trading him. They'd be smart to, seeing as Thigpen isn't their future.

Prediction: Bills via trade or signing.



3. Caleb Hanie, Bears

Scouting Report: Hanie became a national name in the NFC Championship, but he was already well known to Bears fans for his impressive preseasons. In three years of exhibition games, Hanie has completed 70-of-116 passes (60.3%) for 843 yards (7.27 YPA), and a 6:4 TD-to-INT ratio. He's chipped in 5.2 yards per rush. A sleeper favorite of ESPN's Mel Kiper after the 2008 draft, Hanie is athletic and strong-armed with a quick release. He has a reputation for forcing passes into coverage, which was evident against the Packers but hasn't been in the preseason.

Availability: Hanie is a restricted free agent with three accrued years, meaning he won't be unrestricted regardless of a new CBA. But he may still be available. The Bears only gave Hanie an original pick tender, so interested teams could sign him to an offer sheet without having to cough up any compensation. Fifth-round pick Nate Enderle is Mike Martz's new developmental passer.

Prediction: Bears on his one-year restricted tender.

4. Matt Leinart, Texans

Scouting Report: QB prospects eligible for the draft are often criticized for exhibiting a "sense of entitlement." It's a perfect description for Leinart. Even after losing his starting job to Derek Anderson last fall, then failing to unseat Dan Orlovsky for the No. 2 spot on Houston's depth chart, Leinart has campaigned loudly for a starting job this spring, claiming he's "paid his dues." In Leinart's best case scenario, he'll be given a chance to compete for a backup job. The former top-ten pick holds a career 14:20 TD-to-INT ratio, 6.5 YPA, and 57.1 completion rate. He plays with no sense of urgency, lacks athleticism, and his throwing velocity is not starting-caliber.

Availability: The Texans extended Leinart an original pick tender in February, but drafted T.J. Yates to sit behind Matt Schaub and Orlovsky. Yates will cost far less than Leinart's $1.2-1.3 million tender, so it will probably be rescinded after the lockout. Leinart would then become an unrestricted free agent. Old college coach Pete Carroll's team is a connectable dot, but it's telling that the Seahawks showed no interest in Leinart last September. Only Houston and Oakland did.

Prediction: Raiders on a one-year, $1 million contract.

5. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs

Scouting Report: The 85th pick in the 2006 draft, Croyle's career has been marred by injuries, inaccuracy, and a total lack of success. He's winless in 10 starts with eight touchdowns, nine interceptions, and five fumbles. Croyle has completed just 56.7 percent of his passes with a 5.2 YPA. Though strong armed and fairly athletic, Croyle is exceptionally prone to knuckleheaded errors. In his lone start last year, Croyle completed 7-of-17 passes for 40 yards in a 31-0 loss.

Availability: Whether Croyle was tendered before March 3 isn't totally clear, but it's believed he did receive an "original pick" designation. Still, he's on notice after the Chiefs drafted Ricky Stanzi in the fifth round. Croyle's offensive coordinator in Kansas City was current Bills coach Chan Gailey, although Gailey's offense was far more productive with Tyler Thigpen than Croyle.

Prediction: Vikings on a one-year, $850,000 contract.

Other three- to five-year restricted quarterbacks: Drew Stanton, Kellen Clemens, Matt Moore, Jordan Palmer.

[SIZE=+1]Trade Candidates[/SIZE]

1. Kevin Kolb, Eagles

Scouting Report: Not yet 27, Kolb has spent his first four NFL seasons as a backup, but it's not a role he's been effective in. In six career appearances off the bench, he's completed 57.5 percent of his passes for 368 yards (4.6 YPA) and a 1:5 TD-to-INT ratio. By comparison, Kolb is a 59.5 percent passer with a YPA that jumps to 6.61 with eight touchdowns (one rush) and eight picks in six starts. Kolb has adequate arm strength, athleticism, and size (6'3/218). He's been a far more aggressive quarterback with a full week to prepare as a starter. To acquire, Kolb will cost valuable pick and/or player compensation, in addition to a pricey new deal. He's in a contract year.

Availability: Despite their inability to move Kolb during the draft due to lockout rules, the Eagles must trade him now because Kolb's contract is up after this season. Kolb will be a starter in 2011, probably with the Cardinals or Seahawks. Philadelphia is expected to demand a 2012 first-round pick and a starter on defense, which from Arizona could be someone like cornerback Greg Toler or from the Seahawks defensive tackle Brandon Mebane in a sign-and-trade deal.

Prediction: Cardinals via trade.

2. Kyle Orton, Broncos

Scouting Report: Orton is 32-29 lifetime going on age 29. He is an excellent decision maker (71:48 TD-to-INT ratio), though that sometimes comes at the expense of aggressiveness. Orton is a heady player with a strong arm, but not athletic (5.09 forty time) and can be subject to late-season fades. In his first 11 games over the last three years, Orton has completed 61.6 percent of his passes with a 7.35 YPA, 45:19 TD-to-INT ratio, and 16-15 record. The rest of the way, his completion rate falls to 56.9 with an ugly 5.97 YPA, 14 touchdowns, 14 picks, four wins, and seven losses. Still, Orton has shown that he can be a top-15 NFL quarterback at 100 percent.

Availability: During the draft, VP of Player Personnel John Elway strongly indicated that the Broncos want Tim Tebow to be their Week 1 starter. That makes Orton an $8.88 million projected backup, who's also in a contract year. The Broncos need to trade him now. Orton has played in several different offenses, from vertical schemes under Ron Turner to a passer-friendly shotgun attack for Josh McDaniels. Orton should be available for a third- to fourth-round pick.

Prediction: Dolphins via trade.



3. Carson Palmer, Bengals

Scouting Report: Palmer is a different player than the quarterback who came out of USC in 2003. The 31-year-old's mobility has been all but eliminated since a 2006 ACL and MCL tear with meniscus damage, and Palmer's arm strength was adversely affected by ligament and tendon tears in his right (throwing) elbow in 2008. Palmer's passes tend to flutter, especially in the intermediate to deep range. He's had two winning seasons in his career. Palmer's talent is now more that of a top-20 quarterback than top-10, and ideally he would be protected by a top-notch line plus running game. He has four years and $54.5 million left on a contract signed in 2005.

Availability: Depends on who you ask. If it's Bengals owner Mike Brown -- a reliable source -- Palmer isn't going anywhere. Bengals coach Marvin Lewis and most league observers believe Palmer will sit out the 2011 season after threatening to retire if his trade demand isn't honored. We'll optimistically project Palmer to get his wish and land with old college coach Pete Carroll. It's probably in Cincinnati's best interest, too, as they could acquire an early- to mid-round pick in exchange.

Prediction: Seahawks via trade.

4. Matt Flynn, Packers

Scouting Report: Flynn was essentially Colt McCoy coming out of LSU: Weak arm, fairly athletic, and a "winner." He's started one NFL game, completing 64.9 percent of 37 attempts for 251 yards, three scores, and a pick in last year's 31-27 Week 15 loss to New England. In that game, Flynn displayed impressive poise and accuracy. In three preseasons, Flynn has gone 83-of-135 (61.5%) for 855 yards (6.33 YPA), five touchdowns, and two interceptions. He's got limited tools, but we suspect Flynn would be a better starter than at least a few teams have in place.

Availability: Flynn is due $555,000 in the last year of his deal. The Packers need to either sign him to an affordable extension or trade Flynn while they still can. Flynn has shown that he can keep Green Bay competitive if Aaron Rodgers misses time, so GM Ted Thompson probably prefers the former. Still, he may be hard pressed to turn down a third-round pick if offered.

Prediction: Stays with Packers.

5. Brian Hoyer, Patriots

Scouting Report: Undrafted out of Michigan State in 2009, Hoyer was a middle of the road college quarterback before landing in Foxboro and handily beating out the likes of Matt Gutierrez, Andrew Walter, Kevin O'Connell, and Jonathan Crompton to be Tom Brady's top backup. Hoyer has drawn impressive reviews in practice. In preseason games, he's completed 61-of-101 passes (60.4%) with a sterling 8.17 YPA and 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Hoyer threw a 42-yard touchdown missile to Brandon Tate toward the end of the Patriots' Week 17 win over the Dolphins last year.

Availability: Hoyer was included on this list because he's been the subject of some trade buzz, but we aren't buying it. The Pats have him under control through 2012 with a $480,000 base salary this year and restricted free agency next year. While aggressive coach Bill Belichick is always willing to listen to trade offers, we wouldn't look for Hoyer to be dealt before next spring.

Prediction: Stays with Patriots.

More Quarterback Trade Candidates: Jon Kitna, Josh Johnson, Jimmy Clausen.

[SIZE=+1]Release Candidates[/SIZE]

1. Vince Young, Titans

Scouting Report: Young's ability to move an offense and win games is not in doubt. He's 30-17 lifetime, only 28 years old, and has rare mobility at the position. Young is a game-breaking athlete with a 20:10 TD-to-INT ratio as a passer over the last two seasons, superb 7.55 YPA, and yards-per-carry average of over 5.0. Mental toughness is not V.Y.'s strong suit, however, and he let his team down last year by admonishing Jeff Fisher in the locker room after a Week 11 loss. This led to a permanent benching, and arguably his coach's ouster in Tennessee. Perhaps a change of scenery is the answer for Young. The Titans have already drafted his replacement.

Availability: Young is due $12.75 million in 2011, and the rest of the NFL is aware of his situation. He will be cut before a $4.25 million roster bonus comes due. At that point, V.Y. will be the top unrestricted free agent quarterback available on the open market. Redskins coach Mike Shanahan has shown an affinity for rehab projects, and his team has a glaring quarterback need.

Prediction: Released, signs with Redskins.

2. David Garrard, Jaguars

Scouting Report: Garrard proponents point to last year's 90.8 rating that ranked 13th in the NFL, besting Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, and Kyle Orton. A closer look reveals an extremely streaky game-to-game passer, who tended to beat up on lesser opponents. For instance, Garrard combined for nine touchdowns and no interceptions against the 25th, 26th, and 32nd ranked pass defenses. Garrard's physical tools are not in question, but the only thing consistent about his performances is inconsistency. He's also 33, so to expect improvement is unrealistic at this stage.

Availability: We don't think Garrard will be cut, but it became a possibility when the Jags traded up for Blaine Gabbert at the No. 10 pick. Top-ten QBs rarely ride the pine, and Garrard's $7.975 million salary is too hefty for a backup. The Jaguars also have Luke McCown in reserve. If Gabbert outplays Garrard in the preseason, Jack Del Rio will have a tough decision to make.

Prediction: Stays with Jaguars, loses job by Week 5.

3. Donovan McNabb, Redskins

Scouting Report: McNabb entered the league in 1999 as an elite running quarterback, developed under Andy Reid into a six-time Pro Bowl passer, and bottomed out on the bench in Washington last season. Now going on 35, it's reasonable to wonder if McNabb has much left. Never an especially accurate thrower, McNabb's completion rates have dipped in four straight years, and his conditioning became an issue under Mike Shanahan in D.C. McNabb is likely to enter the 2011 quarterback market without many suitors. He's never been outside a West Coast offense, is in obvious physical decline, and will be viewed as no more than a one-year stopgap.

Availability: The phony six-year contract McNabb signed last November contains a $10 million option bonus for 2011 that won't be paid by the Redskins or any other team. He will be released into unrestricted free agency once transactions are allowed. While the Vikings are rumored to have interest, we suspect they moved on from that idea after drafting Christian Ponder with the 12th overall pick. McNabb must latch on with a team running the West Coast offense.

Prediction: Released, signs with Bengals.

More Quarterback Release Candidates: Derek Anderson, Jake Delhomme, Charlie Batch, David Carr.

HacheMan · May 11, 2011

The 2011 Quarterback Market

The 2011 quarterback market will get interesting when the lockout ends and transactions are allowed. Vince Young and Donovan McNabb will breathe life into unrestricted free agency, while Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, and possibly Carson Palmer will become attractive trade targets.

Until then, we can only speculate about the future. The Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals is in no hurry to rule on the validity of its temporary stay of the lockout injunction. In the meantime, Chris Wesseling and I will be rolling out position-by-position market analysis.

These will be the most thorough position breakdowns on the internet. We'll touch on every sort of availability, from free agents of all kinds to trade targets and candidates for release.

Let's start with quarterbacks certain to be available after the transactions freeze.

[SIZE=+1]Surefire Quarterback Free Agents[/SIZE]

1. Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks

Scouting Report: Hasselbeck, going on age 36, has spent his entire career in West Coast offenses. Leading Seattle's surprising playoff run helped his stock, but this is a player in decline. Hasselbeck hasn't thrown more touchdowns than interceptions or played 16 games since 2007. He's 12-24 in his last 36 starts, averaging 6.34 yards per attempt with a 58.3 completion rate. Reduced arm strength has made him increasingly turnover prone. Hasselbeck is still a natural leader around whom teammates rally. He'd be a fine stopgap for teams that don't plan to contend.

Availability: Seattle made a half-hearted attempt to re-sign Hasselbeck before the lockout. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell recently reached out to the former three-time Pro Bowler, but ultimately the Seahawks have shown no urgency to re-sign Hasselbeck. He could be a fall-back plan in Arizona if the Cardinals don't land Kolb or Orton. Another option is Tennessee, where Hasselbeck has ties to GM Mike Reinfeldt and could serve as a bridge to No. 8 overall pick Jake Locker.

Prediction: Titans on a two-year, $9 million contract.

2. Marc Bulger, Ravens

Scouting Report: Bulger didn't play a regular season snap as Joe Flacco's backup in 2010, but was competent in the preseason, completing 21-of-32 throws (65.6%) with a 7.5 YPA. Some reports out of Baltimore claimed he was sharper than Flacco in practices. Bulger has played in vertical offenses for Mike Martz, Scott Linehan, and Cam Cameron. In Bulger's last two seasons as a starter, he combined for 22 touchdowns, 28 interceptions, a 6.25 YPA, and 75 sacks taken with a 4-23 record. Bulger looked shell shocked before holding the clipboard last year. Perhaps a season off from taking hits has rejuvenated Bulger's body. But that's not something we'd bet on.

Availability: Even after the draft, the NFL is so quarterback needy that Bulger could find a legitimate chance to start. (If he wants it, and we have our doubts.) He's been heavily linked to Arizona, and recent reports suggest the Redskins could join the bidding. If Bulger is signed to be a starter, he seems unlikely to excel without a top-ten pass blocking line. No halfway competitive teams will view him as more than a backup.

Prediction: Cardinals on a three-year, $9 million backup's contract.

3. Alex Smith, 49ers

Scouting Report: Smith was the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft, but his downfall is directly attributable to middle-round talent. He has average arm strength, has been injury prone, is easily rattled, and his accuracy hasn't improved since his Utah days. Smith is not an aggressive football player. Though intelligent, Smith is not a quick thinker on the field and prefers check downs to vertical strikes. He is moderately athletic and has played in every type of offense imaginable.

Availability: 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh has given Smith a playbook, showing the utmost confidence that he'll return to open the season as the starter in San Francisco. He won't be on a long rope, however, after Harbaugh traded up to draft Colin Kaepernick with the 36th overall pick.

Prediction: 49ers on a two-year, $7 million contract.

4. Tarvaris Jackson, Vikings

Scouting Report: Jackson has plenty of arm strength and is a positive-yardage running threat, averaging 4.5 yards per carry in his career. His talent is undeniable. Jackson is highly inconsistent, however, and tends to buckle under pressure, both of the defensive and big-game variety. In six combined prime-time and playoff starts, Jackson is 99-of-190 (52.1%) for 979 yards (5.15 YPA), two touchdowns, and nine interceptions with a 1-5 record. He is an extremely erratic thrower. Unless you're Brad Childress, Jackson is no one's idea of a starting quarterback.

Availability: The Vikings showed Jackson the door by failing to tender him as a restricted free agent. Childress is out of the league, but top lieutenant Darrell Bevell has resurfaced as the Seahawks' offensive coordinator. Jackson is also familiar with Andy Reid's Philadelphia offense. The Eagles are expected to trade Kevin Kolb, leaving only Mike Kafka behind Michael Vick.

Prediction: Eagles on a one-year, $2 million contract.

5. Bruce Gradkowski, Raiders

Scouting Report: He's essentially Jeff Garcia. An undersized scrambler, Gradkowski ran a 4.5-flat at his 2006 Pro Day and has averaged 4.2 yards per rushing attempt in his career. While Gradkowski's arm strength and per-attempt passing stats are thoroughly unimpressive, he has shown the ability to move an offense for short stretches, mostly with improvisation. The 28-year-old has played primarily in West Coast-style offenses. While he's a bottom-barrel No. 2 quarterback, Gradkowski can provide a spark and would probably be one of the better No. 3s in the league.

Availability: The Raiders moved on from Gradkowski after axing his biggest fan, former head coach Tom Cable. Not receiving a tender, Gradkowski could resurface as a backup with Cable in Seattle. Because of his limited arm talent, Gradkowski is a quarterback who must be manipulated by the offense he plays in. A horizontal passing attack would suit his skills best.

Prediction: Seahawks on a one-year, $850,000 contract.



6. Billy Volek, Chargers

Scouting Report: Volek has spent the last four years backing up Philip Rivers, and Rivers hasn't missed a start. The 35-year-old has been shaky in preseasons, two years ago completing 70.7 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions, but last year regressing to a 0:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 50.7 completion rate. Volek is a frail-looking quarterback in decline. He's hit the market before, and either no NFL teams had interest in giving him a chance to start, or Volek was just satisfied with backup jobs. He'd be a very poor bet to last more than eight starts.

Availability: The Chargers didn't draft a quarterback, so they may be hoping that Volek will return behind Rivers. Position coaches under whom Volek has worked include Rob Chudzinski (current Panthers offensive coordinator) and Cam Cameron (Ravens offensive coordinator).

Prediction: Ravens on a two-year, $3.5 million contract.

7. Rex Grossman, Redskins

Scouting Report: Grossman has plenty of athleticism and arm strength, but is one of the worst decision-making quarterbacks of our generation. Wildly erratic, the former first-round pick has completed 54.2 percent of his career passes and never topped the 56.0 mark in an individual season. Grossman recorded a 29 on the Wonderlic before the 2003 draft, but his play can be more indicative of a single-digit score. His performances are incredibly unpredictable. One week, Grossman will look like a serviceable NFL starter. He will cost his team a game in the next.

Availability: The Shanahans were itching to play Grossman over Donovan McNabb last year, and play-caller Kyle has an obvious affinity for the onetime Super Bowl starter. The Bengals have also been linked to Grossman, but Washington offers his best path to play time, in addition to coaching staff support. He could conceivably end up battling John Beck for the starting job.

Prediction: Redskins on a one-year, $1.5 million contract.

8. Troy Smith, 49ers

Scouting Report: Smith developed a malcontent reputation in Baltimore after falling behind Joe Flacco and Marc Bulger. The Ravens waived him at final cuts, and Smith signed with San Francisco two days later. The 2006 Heisman winner experienced his first meaningful playing time under Mike Singletary, going 3-3 in six starts with six touchdowns (five pass, one rush) and a rock-solid 8.1 yards-per-attempt average. Smith has impressive arm power for a smallish passer (6'0/215) and is not afraid to throw downfield. He struggled with ball security (six fumbles, four INTs) and accuracy (50.3 completions), however, and lost the job to Alex Smith at season's end.

Availability: We suspect there is a feeling around the league that Smith thinks he's better than he is because of how he complained his way out of a respected organization like the Ravens. But he put enough on film in 2010 to warrant a contract. The 49ers did not tender Smith, and he could catch on with a team that runs a vertical offense as a possible No. 2 quarterback. He has history with Raiders coach Hue Jackson, who was Smith's position coach in 2008 and 2009.

Prediction: Raiders on a one-year, $850,000 contract.

9. Kerry Collins, Titans

Scouting Report: Collins, 38, has 28 starts over the past three seasons, completing 57.3 percent of his passes with a 6.30 YPA average. His TD-to-INT ratio is 32:25. The numbers look serviceable, but keep in mind that Collins was protected by one of the NFL's top running games. Ultimately, Collins is a game-manager quarterback with scant athleticism, mediocre accuracy, and very few years left ahead of him. While Collins still has arm strength to make all of the throws, he is a deliberate-moving pocket passer who requires top-notch pass blocking to move an offense.

Availability: He should be viewed as a last-ditch option behind Jake Locker in Tennessee, and even teams desperate for an extremely short-term stopgap ought to aim higher. Collins is best suited for a clear backup role in an offense that requires no movement skills at quarterback.

Prediction: Chargers on a one-year, $1 million contract.

10. Trent Edwards, Jaguars

Scouting Report: Perhaps the most injury-prone QB in football, Edwards has suffered an ailment of some sort every season since his senior year in high school. He has a mild case of Compartment Syndrome that causes tissue swelling and prevents proper blood-muscle flow for healing. Edwards has an adequate arm and athleticism, but poor pocket presence (possibly due to his injury history) and is only comfortable checking down to backs and underneath targets. In 33 career starts, the 27-year-old is 14-19 with a 60.5 completion rate but a 26:30 TD-to-INT ratio.

Availability: The Jaguars didn't tender Edwards before the March 3 deadline, effectively washing their hands of last year's in-season waiver pickup from Buffalo. It's worth noting that the Jets also put in a waiver claim last September, but Jacksonville "won out" because of its worse record. Also notable: 2010 Jaguars QBs coach Mike Shula now holds the same role in Carolina.

Prediction: Panthers on a two-year, $3.5 million contract.

Other surefire free agent quarterbacks: Nate Davis, Chad Pennington, Brian Brohm, Jim Sorgi, Chris Simms, Charlie Frye, Patrick Ramsey, Josh McCown.

[SIZE=+1]Three- to Five-Year Restricted Free Agents[/SIZE]

1. Dennis Dixon, Steelers

Scouting Report: Dixon's 2010 season ended with a torn left meniscus, the same knee in which he tore his ACL as a college senior. While the latest injury necessitated only arthroscopic surgery, multiple operations on the same knee is a long-term concern. When healthy, Dixon has shown the ability to win camp battles over established veterans (Byron Leftwich, Charlie Batch), and move an offense with his legs (5.6 career yards per carry). Though still a work in progress as a passer, Dixon is 2-1 in three career starts, including a Week 1 win over Atlanta last year and a 20-17 loss in Baltimore the season prior. He's got moxie, and seems to be a contagious leader.

Availability: A three-year vet, Dixon is a restricted free agent regardless of a new CBA. He received a tender before March 3, although the level is unclear. Even if it was of the "original pick" variety -- Dixon was a fifth-round choice in 2008 -- NFL teams may hesitate to surrender substantial compensation for a quarterback with two year-ending injuries to the same knee in four seasons.

Prediction: Steelers on his one-year restricted tender.

2. Tyler Thigpen, Dolphins

Scouting Report: Thigpen's downfall has not been related to talent or confidence. He plays with a gunslinger mentality, is a positive-yards run threat, and can make NFL throws. Thigpen has been unable to grasp a pro-style offense after playing in Coastal Carolina's Pistol Spread, and struggled mightily off the bench last year in Miami, completing 53.2 percent of his passes with two touchdowns, two picks, a fumble, and eight sacks taken in five appearances. The Dolphins were shut out in Thigpen's only start. He remains an interesting, if developmental project at age 27.

Availability: The Fins extended Thigpen a second-round tender, the validity of which hinges on the labor situation. Thigpen has enjoyed his lone NFL success in a Chan Gailey offense, which incorporates Pistol concepts and lots of shotgun. Ryan Fitzpatrick needs a backup in Buffalo, so it makes sense that Thigpen would be a strong option there should his free agency be unrestricted, or the Fins be interested in trading him. They'd be smart to, seeing as Thigpen isn't their future.

Prediction: Bills via trade or signing.



3. Caleb Hanie, Bears

Scouting Report: Hanie became a national name in the NFC Championship, but he was already well known to Bears fans for his impressive preseasons. In three years of exhibition games, Hanie has completed 70-of-116 passes (60.3%) for 843 yards (7.27 YPA), and a 6:4 TD-to-INT ratio. He's chipped in 5.2 yards per rush. A sleeper favorite of ESPN's Mel Kiper after the 2008 draft, Hanie is athletic and strong-armed with a quick release. He has a reputation for forcing passes into coverage, which was evident against the Packers but hasn't been in the preseason.

Availability: Hanie is a restricted free agent with three accrued years, meaning he won't be unrestricted regardless of a new CBA. But he may still be available. The Bears only gave Hanie an original pick tender, so interested teams could sign him to an offer sheet without having to cough up any compensation. Fifth-round pick Nate Enderle is Mike Martz's new developmental passer.

Prediction: Bears on his one-year restricted tender.

4. Matt Leinart, Texans

Scouting Report: QB prospects eligible for the draft are often criticized for exhibiting a "sense of entitlement." It's a perfect description for Leinart. Even after losing his starting job to Derek Anderson last fall, then failing to unseat Dan Orlovsky for the No. 2 spot on Houston's depth chart, Leinart has campaigned loudly for a starting job this spring, claiming he's "paid his dues." In Leinart's best case scenario, he'll be given a chance to compete for a backup job. The former top-ten pick holds a career 14:20 TD-to-INT ratio, 6.5 YPA, and 57.1 completion rate. He plays with no sense of urgency, lacks athleticism, and his throwing velocity is not starting-caliber.

Availability: The Texans extended Leinart an original pick tender in February, but drafted T.J. Yates to sit behind Matt Schaub and Orlovsky. Yates will cost far less than Leinart's $1.2-1.3 million tender, so it will probably be rescinded after the lockout. Leinart would then become an unrestricted free agent. Old college coach Pete Carroll's team is a connectable dot, but it's telling that the Seahawks showed no interest in Leinart last September. Only Houston and Oakland did.

Prediction: Raiders on a one-year, $1 million contract.

5. Brodie Croyle, Chiefs

Scouting Report: The 85th pick in the 2006 draft, Croyle's career has been marred by injuries, inaccuracy, and a total lack of success. He's winless in 10 starts with eight touchdowns, nine interceptions, and five fumbles. Croyle has completed just 56.7 percent of his passes with a 5.2 YPA. Though strong armed and fairly athletic, Croyle is exceptionally prone to knuckleheaded errors. In his lone start last year, Croyle completed 7-of-17 passes for 40 yards in a 31-0 loss.

Availability: Whether Croyle was tendered before March 3 isn't totally clear, but it's believed he did receive an "original pick" designation. Still, he's on notice after the Chiefs drafted Ricky Stanzi in the fifth round. Croyle's offensive coordinator in Kansas City was current Bills coach Chan Gailey, although Gailey's offense was far more productive with Tyler Thigpen than Croyle.

Prediction: Vikings on a one-year, $850,000 contract.

Other three- to five-year restricted quarterbacks: Drew Stanton, Kellen Clemens, Matt Moore, Jordan Palmer.

[SIZE=+1]Trade Candidates[/SIZE]

1. Kevin Kolb, Eagles

Scouting Report: Not yet 27, Kolb has spent his first four NFL seasons as a backup, but it's not a role he's been effective in. In six career appearances off the bench, he's completed 57.5 percent of his passes for 368 yards (4.6 YPA) and a 1:5 TD-to-INT ratio. By comparison, Kolb is a 59.5 percent passer with a YPA that jumps to 6.61 with eight touchdowns (one rush) and eight picks in six starts. Kolb has adequate arm strength, athleticism, and size (6'3/218). He's been a far more aggressive quarterback with a full week to prepare as a starter. To acquire, Kolb will cost valuable pick and/or player compensation, in addition to a pricey new deal. He's in a contract year.

Availability: Despite their inability to move Kolb during the draft due to lockout rules, the Eagles must trade him now because Kolb's contract is up after this season. Kolb will be a starter in 2011, probably with the Cardinals or Seahawks. Philadelphia is expected to demand a 2012 first-round pick and a starter on defense, which from Arizona could be someone like cornerback Greg Toler or from the Seahawks defensive tackle Brandon Mebane in a sign-and-trade deal.

Prediction: Cardinals via trade.

2. Kyle Orton, Broncos

Scouting Report: Orton is 32-29 lifetime going on age 29. He is an excellent decision maker (71:48 TD-to-INT ratio), though that sometimes comes at the expense of aggressiveness. Orton is a heady player with a strong arm, but not athletic (5.09 forty time) and can be subject to late-season fades. In his first 11 games over the last three years, Orton has completed 61.6 percent of his passes with a 7.35 YPA, 45:19 TD-to-INT ratio, and 16-15 record. The rest of the way, his completion rate falls to 56.9 with an ugly 5.97 YPA, 14 touchdowns, 14 picks, four wins, and seven losses. Still, Orton has shown that he can be a top-15 NFL quarterback at 100 percent.

Availability: During the draft, VP of Player Personnel John Elway strongly indicated that the Broncos want Tim Tebow to be their Week 1 starter. That makes Orton an $8.88 million projected backup, who's also in a contract year. The Broncos need to trade him now. Orton has played in several different offenses, from vertical schemes under Ron Turner to a passer-friendly shotgun attack for Josh McDaniels. Orton should be available for a third- to fourth-round pick.

Prediction: Dolphins via trade.



3. Carson Palmer, Bengals

Scouting Report: Palmer is a different player than the quarterback who came out of USC in 2003. The 31-year-old's mobility has been all but eliminated since a 2006 ACL and MCL tear with meniscus damage, and Palmer's arm strength was adversely affected by ligament and tendon tears in his right (throwing) elbow in 2008. Palmer's passes tend to flutter, especially in the intermediate to deep range. He's had two winning seasons in his career. Palmer's talent is now more that of a top-20 quarterback than top-10, and ideally he would be protected by a top-notch line plus running game. He has four years and $54.5 million left on a contract signed in 2005.

Availability: Depends on who you ask. If it's Bengals owner Mike Brown -- a reliable source -- Palmer isn't going anywhere. Bengals coach Marvin Lewis and most league observers believe Palmer will sit out the 2011 season after threatening to retire if his trade demand isn't honored. We'll optimistically project Palmer to get his wish and land with old college coach Pete Carroll. It's probably in Cincinnati's best interest, too, as they could acquire an early- to mid-round pick in exchange.

Prediction: Seahawks via trade.

4. Matt Flynn, Packers

Scouting Report: Flynn was essentially Colt McCoy coming out of LSU: Weak arm, fairly athletic, and a "winner." He's started one NFL game, completing 64.9 percent of 37 attempts for 251 yards, three scores, and a pick in last year's 31-27 Week 15 loss to New England. In that game, Flynn displayed impressive poise and accuracy. In three preseasons, Flynn has gone 83-of-135 (61.5%) for 855 yards (6.33 YPA), five touchdowns, and two interceptions. He's got limited tools, but we suspect Flynn would be a better starter than at least a few teams have in place.

Availability: Flynn is due $555,000 in the last year of his deal. The Packers need to either sign him to an affordable extension or trade Flynn while they still can. Flynn has shown that he can keep Green Bay competitive if Aaron Rodgers misses time, so GM Ted Thompson probably prefers the former. Still, he may be hard pressed to turn down a third-round pick if offered.

Prediction: Stays with Packers.

5. Brian Hoyer, Patriots

Scouting Report: Undrafted out of Michigan State in 2009, Hoyer was a middle of the road college quarterback before landing in Foxboro and handily beating out the likes of Matt Gutierrez, Andrew Walter, Kevin O'Connell, and Jonathan Crompton to be Tom Brady's top backup. Hoyer has drawn impressive reviews in practice. In preseason games, he's completed 61-of-101 passes (60.4%) with a sterling 8.17 YPA and 4:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Hoyer threw a 42-yard touchdown missile to Brandon Tate toward the end of the Patriots' Week 17 win over the Dolphins last year.

Availability: Hoyer was included on this list because he's been the subject of some trade buzz, but we aren't buying it. The Pats have him under control through 2012 with a $480,000 base salary this year and restricted free agency next year. While aggressive coach Bill Belichick is always willing to listen to trade offers, we wouldn't look for Hoyer to be dealt before next spring.

Prediction: Stays with Patriots.

More Quarterback Trade Candidates: Jon Kitna, Josh Johnson, Jimmy Clausen.

[SIZE=+1]Release Candidates[/SIZE]

1. Vince Young, Titans

Scouting Report: Young's ability to move an offense and win games is not in doubt. He's 30-17 lifetime, only 28 years old, and has rare mobility at the position. Young is a game-breaking athlete with a 20:10 TD-to-INT ratio as a passer over the last two seasons, superb 7.55 YPA, and yards-per-carry average of over 5.0. Mental toughness is not V.Y.'s strong suit, however, and he let his team down last year by admonishing Jeff Fisher in the locker room after a Week 11 loss. This led to a permanent benching, and arguably his coach's ouster in Tennessee. Perhaps a change of scenery is the answer for Young. The Titans have already drafted his replacement.

Availability: Young is due $12.75 million in 2011, and the rest of the NFL is aware of his situation. He will be cut before a $4.25 million roster bonus comes due. At that point, V.Y. will be the top unrestricted free agent quarterback available on the open market. Redskins coach Mike Shanahan has shown an affinity for rehab projects, and his team has a glaring quarterback need.

Prediction: Released, signs with Redskins.

2. David Garrard, Jaguars

Scouting Report: Garrard proponents point to last year's 90.8 rating that ranked 13th in the NFL, besting Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, and Kyle Orton. A closer look reveals an extremely streaky game-to-game passer, who tended to beat up on lesser opponents. For instance, Garrard combined for nine touchdowns and no interceptions against the 25th, 26th, and 32nd ranked pass defenses. Garrard's physical tools are not in question, but the only thing consistent about his performances is inconsistency. He's also 33, so to expect improvement is unrealistic at this stage.

Availability: We don't think Garrard will be cut, but it became a possibility when the Jags traded up for Blaine Gabbert at the No. 10 pick. Top-ten QBs rarely ride the pine, and Garrard's $7.975 million salary is too hefty for a backup. The Jaguars also have Luke McCown in reserve. If Gabbert outplays Garrard in the preseason, Jack Del Rio will have a tough decision to make.

Prediction: Stays with Jaguars, loses job by Week 5.

3. Donovan McNabb, Redskins

Scouting Report: McNabb entered the league in 1999 as an elite running quarterback, developed under Andy Reid into a six-time Pro Bowl passer, and bottomed out on the bench in Washington last season. Now going on 35, it's reasonable to wonder if McNabb has much left. Never an especially accurate thrower, McNabb's completion rates have dipped in four straight years, and his conditioning became an issue under Mike Shanahan in D.C. McNabb is likely to enter the 2011 quarterback market without many suitors. He's never been outside a West Coast offense, is in obvious physical decline, and will be viewed as no more than a one-year stopgap.

Availability: The phony six-year contract McNabb signed last November contains a $10 million option bonus for 2011 that won't be paid by the Redskins or any other team. He will be released into unrestricted free agency once transactions are allowed. While the Vikings are rumored to have interest, we suspect they moved on from that idea after drafting Christian Ponder with the 12th overall pick. McNabb must latch on with a team running the West Coast offense.

Prediction: Released, signs with Bengals.

More Quarterback Release Candidates: Derek Anderson, Jake Delhomme, Charlie Batch, David Carr.

HacheMan · May 15, 2011

The 2011 Running Back Market
"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." -- Bob Dylan

With apologies to ol' Mr. Zimmerman, we could use a weatherman right about now to decipher the winds of change in free agency. After feint February hope that mediation would lead to a new CBA freeing all four- and five-year vets, Judge Nelson's April injunction of the lockout seemed to herald a return to 2010 league rules.

Entering May, it was fair to believe an NFLPA win would be bittersweet for players with 4-5 years of accrued service. Mediation leading to a new CBA, on the other hand, would put those players back on the open market as unrestricted free agents. It seemed cut and dried as recently as last week that one of those two scenarios would play out. That's no longer the case. The NFL is now crafting alternative free-agency rules that will not replicate the 2010 blueprint. In other words, we could have a situation where four-year players remain beholden to their teams while five-year veterans gain freedom.

The upshot is that we have no idea on free-agency specifics as of press time. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart fantasy owners are already at their wits' end, pleading for serenity now.

What is clear post-draft is that free-agent running backs will find a depressed market once the new league year begins. The Bengals, Colts, and Giants are the teams with the most striking needs, but those could easily be filled by Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, and Ahmad Bradshaw. The majority of teams looking to round out their backfields will be shopping for complementary pieces, not workhorses.

As CBSSports.com's Rob Rang recently pointed out, the running back position is becoming specialized like starting pitcher, middle reliever, setup-man, and closer in baseball. For that reason, chess pieces (i.e. Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush) could have far more value than average starters.

Let's start with running backs certain to be available once transactions are allowed.

[SIZE=+2]Surefire Running Back Free Agents[/SIZE]

1. Cedric Benson, Bengals

Scouting Report: Benson was one of the most overworked backs in the league in 2009, grinding out tough yards against a string of stout defenses on his way to a career year. Those 23 carries per game caught up with him last season, as his per-carry average dropped from 4.2 to 3.5. More worrisome, his only four games over 4.0 yards per carry came against defenses ranked 32nd, 28th and 27th (twice) against the run. Throw in a checkered off-the-field history, and there are enough red flags here to scare off teams putting in their due diligence.

Availability: Benson has made it crystal clear that he's looking for one last serious contract in free agency. The Bengals ignored running back until the seventh round of the draft, and coach Marvin Lewis acknowledges that re-signing Benson will be the top priority once free agency begins. Lewis wants to turn the clock back to 2009, saddle up his plowhorse again, and use a defense/ground attack now that the Bengals are moving on from Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco, and Terrell Owens. In other words, the Bengals are set to make the same mistake in organizational philosophy that the Bears made in reaching for Benson at No. 4 overall in 2005. With the exception of the best defense of the past 25 years (2000 Ravens), stout defense and ball-control offense don't win Super Bowls -- elite quarterbacks do. Benson may think he can do better than $5 million per year. In related news, Benson is delusional.

Prediction: Bengals on a three-year, $15 million contract.

2. Darren Sproles, Chargers

Scouting Report: A true specialist, the undersized but explosive Sproles has been limited to passing-down duties and kick returns since entering the league. The past three years have taken on a Devin Hester effect. Sproles has shouldered more responsibility in the passing game only to see his effectiveness on returns wane. It's just as well. There hasn't been a better receiving back in the league since the start of the 2008 season, so Sproles' return duties should be scaled back as a nod to his passing-game prowess.

Availability: After collecting $13.9 million under the franchise tag the past two seasons, Sproles is due to finally hit the open market. The Bolts are expected to at least make an offer, but they're almost certain to be outbid by teams in need of a passing-down threat and kick-returner. The Dolphins and Rams figure to show the most interest. Tony Sparano is looking for a "homerun hitter" in the passing game while Josh McDaniels needs a Danny Woodhead type to round out his 2010 Patriots' attack in St. Louis.

Prediction: Rams on a four-year, $14 million contract.

3. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins

Scouting Report: Brown's per-play performance was down across the board, finishing with a career-worst 3.68 yards per carry in a contract year. Worse, his per-carry average dropped to 3.00 flat over the final eight games of the season while he was consistently outplayed by a 33-year-old Ricky Williams. A "walking stitch in personnel medical terms," Brown is a 29-year-old back with major wear and tear knee issues. One of the most dynamic backs in the league before a 2007 ACL tear, Brown is now purely a role player.

Availability: Bill Belichick is a big Brown fan, but that well dried up when the Pats drafted two backs in the first three rounds last month. The Dolphins have sidestepped questions about re-signing Brown. With big back Daniel Thomas now on board, GM Jeff Ireland is expected to target a "scatback" to share the load. The Dolphins have no depth behind Thomas, though, and Brown is "very interested" in returning to Miami with little projected interest on the open market.

Prediction: Dolphins on a two-year, $7 million contract.

4. Ricky Williams, Dolphins

Scouting Report: Maybe it was the three-year sabbatical. Maybe it's the yoga. Whatever the cause, the effect is that Williams has yet to hit the running-back wall as he enters his mid-30s. While Ronnie Brown wore down noticeably in November and December, Williams maintained an even per-carry average of 4.2 throughout the season. Considering the Dolphins' run-blocking woes late last year, it's realistic to believe Ricky can play at a high level for at least one more season.

Availability: Williams was expected to walk away from the game after his one-year extension ran out in early January. He reversed course, instead, suggesting he had hit on the "right formula" for stay healthy and successful into his mid-30s. Williams would prefer to stay in Miami, but he hasn't been given "reason for optimism" on that front. He can still help a contender in a complementary role. Parcells coaching tree member Todd Haley could use Ricky in Kansas City as between-the-tackles insurance for a rapidly declining Thomas Jones.

Prediction: Chiefs on a one-year, $1.5 million contract.



5. Kevin Smith, Lions

Scouting Report: The small 2010 sample size suggests Smith is the same back he was as a rookie. He's a pedestrian runner with above-average receiving skills. Unfortunately, his body is giving out after a ridiculous 450 carries his junior year at UCF, followed by a heavy workload his first season and a half in Detroit. Smith is coming off surgery to his thumb and right shoulder after spending last offseason recovering from a torn ACL. He also played through serious injuries to both shoulders in 2009.

Availability: The Lions failed to extend a tender to the three-year veteran, sending him to the open market. The Lions' actions suggest Smith is damaged goods. Though guaranteed money could be hard to come by, Smith may land a make-good deal as a backup / third-down back. He'll have to prove he's healthy in training camp and preseason action. Early offseason reports suggested Smith would love to play in Miami.

Prediction: Signs with Dolphins on non-guaranteed contract.

6. Clinton Portis, Redskins

Scouting Report: Due in large part to 325+ carries in four of his first five years with the Redskins, Portis is fourth among active backs in attempts before reaching his 30th birthday. Limited to 13-of-32 games the past two years, Portis has been dogged by serious concussion issues in addition to injuries to both knees, both ankles, a calf, a hip, his back, and his neck. While he can still grind out tough yards and pass block with the best of the best, Portis simply can't stay out of the trainers room. Any semblance of big-play ability vanished three years ago. It doesn't help Portis' cause that he's always a threat to run off at the mouth as well.

Availability: The Redskins released Portis in February, taking themselves off the hook for $25 million over the next three years -- including $8.25 million in 2011. With his body breaking down and his effectiveness waning, Portis offers little more than veteran savvy and killer pass protection. If he doesn't settle for the veteran minimum, there's a good chance Portis' NFL career is over. The Bears could give him a shot at protecting Jay Cutler if Chester Taylor fails to impress this summer.

Prediction: Signs with the Bears at the end of the summer.

7. Tiki Barber, Giants

Scouting Report: Barber is wading into uncharted waters as a 36-year-old back four years removed from his last carry. While the history of backs his age is rather ominous, Tiki does have several factors working in his favor. He was absolutely on top of his game when he walked away from a three-year average of 2,204 total yards in 2007. Additionally, his injury history is clean and his legs are fresh. What life he has left in those legs is pure guesswork, but it's certainly conceivable that Tiki could contribute valuable snaps on passing downs. Just remember: it wasn't that long ago when it was crazy to suggest the comebacks of Ricky Williams and Michael Vick would not go down in flames.

Availability: Barber's rights technically belong to the Giants, but the team has already made it clear that the 36-year-old will be released as soon as the lockout is officially lifted. Had they opted to retain Barber, the Mara family would be on the hook for the final two years of Barber's pre-retirement contract. Instead, Barber will try to latch on with his twin brother in Tampa, likely for the veteran league minimum plus incentives.

Prediction: Buccaneers on a one-year, $865,000 contract.

Other surefire free agent running backs: Cadillac Williams, Brian Westbrook, Jerious Norwood, Laurence Maroney, Julius Jones, Mike Bell, Mewelde Moore, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor, Larry Johnson, Dominic Rhodes, Ladell Betts, Kenneth Darby, Ladell Betts, Kareem Huggins

[SIZE=+2]Three- to Five-Year Restricted Free Agents[/SIZE]

1. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers

Scouting Report: Williams' 2010 per-play numbers slipped due to the Panthers' early-season QB and run-blocking woes. Over five years, his per-carry average of 5.0 yards stacks up with Barry Sanders and Chris Johnson -- and ahead of Adrian Peterson. As recently as 2008, he was arguably the best back in the NFL, showing great patience and vision, outstanding burst to the outside, toughness up the middle, and the requisite big play ability. Williams has missed 13 games the past two years with foot and ankle sprains, but the flip side is that he's never been overworked. His legs couldn't be more fresh heading into the 2011 season.

Availability: Williams drew a first- and third-round RFA tender from Carolina. As a veteran of five years, his freedom is dependant on the specifics of the next labor agrement. Having failed to erase doubts that he can handle the feature-back role in Denver, Knowshon Moreno will have plenty of company in the backfield under his new run-oriented head coach. John Fox's veteran fetish has an obvious outlet in form of Williams, who has starred under Fox's watch the past few seasons. Even if Williams ends up restricted again, the rebuilding Panthers are better off accepting draft picks in a trade.

Prediction: Broncos via trade or signing.

2. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants

Scouting Report: The all-purpose dual threat finally wrested control of the feature back job, breaking out for career-highs in carries (276), rushing yards (1,235), TDs (8), and receptions (47). Combining a big back's physicality with a small back's skill-set and elusiveness, Bradshaw graded out well in the ratings of Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders. On the negative side, Bradshaw was benched late in the season with ball protection issues. He's also recovering from a fourth procedure to his ankles and feet in the past two offseasons.

Availability: The Giants entered the offseason assuring the four-year vet that his signing would be a "priority." Originally expected to draw the highest possible tender, Bradshaw ended up at the second-round level with the bulk of his free-agent teammates. The Giants were reluctant to tender any of their RFAs, "so they decided to just tender everyone the same." Bradshaw is coming off a true breakout campaign, but we suspect teams would still be hesitant to part with a second-round pick considering his injury history and smashmouth style.

Prediction: Giants on his one-year restricted tender, leading to a long-term deal.

3. Joseph Addai, Colts

Scouting Report: Addai is a mediocre runner lacking homerun-hitting ability, but he works well in the Colts offense as a strong pass blocker and outlet receiver. The coaching staff has done well to protect him with reasonable workloads, but he's still missed 13 games over the past three years -- including half of last season with nerve damage to his neck and shoulder area. The Colts sorely missed Addai when he was out of the lineup in 2010.

Availability: In the midst of a depressed running-back market, Addai is expected to return to Indianapolis on his one-year tender. The contract specifics could change pending the labor outcome, but Addai's options will be limited at age 28 and coming off an injury-ravaged season. His skill set is worth more to Peyton Manning and the Colts than it is to other teams.

Prediction: Colts on his one-year restricted tender.

4. Michael Bush, Raiders

Scouting Report: An injury concern coming into the league, Bush has missed just three games in three years compared to nine for starter Darren McFadden. Bush grades out as above average in running, blocking, and receiving in Pro Football Focus' player ratings. Also a fine short-yardage hammer, Bush is key backup capable of carrying a starter's workload in case of emergency.

Availability: There was some confusion as to whether the four-year veteran's rookie season counts toward free agency since he spent the year on the Non-football Injury list with a broken leg. The Raiders moved to cover their backside regardless, assigning a prohibitive first- and third-round tender to the power back. Owner Al Davis has no intention of losing Bush, new free-agent rules or not.

Prediction: Raiders on his one-year restricted tender.

5. Mike Tolbert, Chargers

Scouting Report: A throwback to the days of running fullbacks, Tolbert was a godsend for the Bolts' ground game with rookie Ryan Mathews nursing an assortment of injuries. At 5'9/245, Tolbert has the bowling ball effect down pat, bouncing off and rolling over defenders. Tolbert racked up 735 yards and 11 scores on 182 carries (4.0 YPC) while chipping in 25 receptions last season for career bests across the board. Mathews figures to get the starting nod in 2011, but he should give way to a stronger Tolbert on passing downs and short-yardage situations.

Availability: As a three-year vet, Tolbert's free agency is restricted regardless of the CBA outcome. The Chargers' second-round tender is sufficient enough to scare away potential suitors following the smash-mouth runner's emergence as a capable timeshare back. Tobert will return to San Diego as a complement to Mathews.

Prediction: Chargers on his one-year restricted tender.



6. Tim Hightower, Cardinals

Scouting Report: Hightower outplayed Beanie Wells last season but saw his receptions drop from 63 to 21 with the unholy triumvirate of Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and John Skelton under center. The second straight major increase in yards per carry average was offset by fumbling issues that landed him in the doghouse by season's end. Hightower makes for a fine complementary back in a committee attack.

Availability: Hightower has put in just three seasons, so his hands are tied no matter the outcome of the CBA. The Cardinals immediately cited Hightower's fumble-itis as a primary motive for picking up Ryan Williams in the second round last month. Having fallen out of favor as the lead back, Hightower is headed for a scaled-back role -- possibly third on the depth chart.

Prediction: Cardinals on his one-year restricted tender.

7. Jason Snelling, Falcons

Scouting Report: Shattering the preconception of big backs, Snelling struggles in short-yardage situations but makes up for it by exhibiting smooth pass-catching skills. After posting career rushing numbers as a capable fill-in for Michael Turner in 2009, Snelling hauled in 44 receptions as Jerious Norwood's replacement on third downs last season. Solid in all facets but unspectacular, Snelling is the ideal old-school backup.

Availability: The five-year veteran was assigned a second-round tender in early March. Even with change-of-pace rookie Jacquizz Rodgers on board, Snelling is a good bet to return regardless of the labor situation. He's one of the few backups in the league capable of shouldering the same workload as the starter.

Prediction: Falcons on his one-year restricted tender.

8. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots

Scouting Report: Green-Ellis has one major skill that endears him to his head coach: he stays away from negative plays like a bizarro Laurence Maroney. Green-Ellis is the textbook definition of a replacement-level talent, but he does well in short-yardage, effectively kills the clock, and has a knack for falling forward for extra yardage. His counting stats were artificially inflated in a breakout campaign because the Patriots played with a commanding lead in all but one game from mid-season on.

Availability: "Law Firm" is a restricted free agent with three accrued years, so he won't hit the open market regardless of the labor outcome. Tendered at the second-round level, Green-Ellis isn't going anywhere even after a career year in 2010. His workload figures to be scaled back significantly, though, with early-round backs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley added to the backfield mix.

Prediction: Patriots on his one-year restricted tender.

9. Jerome Harrison, Eagles

Scouting Report: Harrison and his staunch defenders had been requesting a change of scenery for some time when he was dealt to the Eagles for Mike Bell. His role actually decreased in Philly, but he continued to flash in limited playing time, averaging 6.0 yards on 40 carries as the change-of-pace to LeSean McCoy. Harrison's career per-carry average of 4.8 suggests he's long been under-utilized, but he's yet to meet a coach who believes he can hold up to a starter's workload.

Availability: Like Williams and Addai, Harrison has already accrued five years of NFL service. He received a tender offer before the March 3 deadline, though the level is unclear. Harrison is in search of a bigger role at age 28, but the Eagles reportedly want him back as McCoy's caddy.

Prediction: Eagles on his one-year restricted tender.

10. Brandon Jackson, Packers

Scouting Report: A fine role player, Jackson was asked to shoulder too heavy of a burden in Green Bay's offense when Ryan Grant went down for the season. Jackson is a quality receiver with a knack for blitz-pickup, but he's simply not up to the task as a runner. Though he finished with career-high counting stats, Jackson managed just 3.7 yards per carry before James Starks bailed him out in the playoffs.

Availability: After initial speculation to the contrary, Jackson did receive an RFA tender -- likely of the original-pick variety. As a four-year veteran, his freedom hinges on the outcome of the labor squabble. It's not inconceivable that Green Bay could rescind the offer after picking up third-down successor, Alex Green, in the third round of the draft. Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson suggests Jackson as Mewelde Moore's successor in Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Steelers on a two-year, $3 million contract.

Other three- to five-year restricted running backs: LeRon McClain, Jalen Parmele, Marcel Reece, Mike Hart, Patrick Cobbs, Brian Leonard, John Kuhn, Lynell Hamilton

[SIZE=+2]Trade Candidates[/SIZE]

1. Beanie Wells, Cardinals

Scouting Report: Wells never came close to his 2009 explosiveness and physicality after tearing his meniscus in the preseason finale last summer. He recovered slowly from the knee scope and looked timid and plodding after a mid-season setback. Wells finished his second season with a per-carry average of 3.4 while bringing up the rear in Pro Football Focus' "Elusive Rating" for running backs.

Availability: The Cardinals shot down speculation that the addition of second-rounder Ryan Williams was a "message" being sent to Wells or a harbinger of a trade in the works. That didn't stop one local columnist from officially declaring Wells a first-round bust after one impressive season and one injured season. Preferring a two-back attack, coach Ken Whisenhunt doesn't envision Williams carrying the load in Arizona. Wells put enough on tape late in 2009 to believe he's every bit as talented as Williams -- as long as his knee checks out.

Prediction: Stays with Cardinals

2. Tashard Choice, Cowboys

Scouting Report: Choice has quite simply produced every time he's been given a fair shake. It wasn't long after Choice's game-changing Week 1 fumble, though, that owner Jerry Jones began complaining about his lack of special teams value while standing firmly behind an ineffective Marion Barber. The most well-rounded back in Dallas the past three years, Choice has averaged 100+ yards in nine career games with at least 10 touches. He's sitting on impressive averages of 4.8 yards per carry and 8.0 yards per reception in his three-year career.

Availability: For whatever reason, new head coach Jason Garrett is "not enamored" of Choice. We trust that he has his reasons. Let's hope they go beyond special teams value. The Cowboys' official website acknowledges that Choice was shopped last season to no avail. With DeMarco Murray on board as Choice's potential third-down replacement, the front office will be fielding calls again this summer.

Prediction: Stays with Cowboys, available at the October trade deadline.

3. Steve Slaton, Texans

Scouting Report: The combination of fumbling issues, general ineffectiveness, and neck surgery sent Slaton from the penthouse to the outhouse by the time training camp rolled around last summer. His ideal role has always been passing-down specialist, but the Texans soon realized Arian Foster was too valuable to take off the field in those situations. Slaton was largely relegated to kickoff-return duty, rushing just 19 times and catching three passes in 2010. He's breaking new NFL ground as a running back playing with a cervical fusion in his neck.

Availability: Foster is entrenched as the starter, 2010 second-rounder Ben Tate is now healthy, and veteran Derrick Ward was brought back on a one-year deal. Slaton is the odd man out for a team that won't carry four tailbacks. GM Rick Smith figures to shop the third-down back around, but the rest of the league knows he could be available for free by September. Slaton figures to fetch no more than a conditional late-round pick. The zone-blocking Redskins, with Slaton's former offensive coordinator calling the plays, could have interest.

Prediction: Redskins via trade.



[SIZE=+1]Release Candidates[/SIZE]

1. Reggie Bush, Saints

Scouting Report: Bush hasn't made it through a 16-game season in five years, so it was no surprise that he missed half of 2010 with yet another lower-leg injury. Bush's effectiveness waned as a runner and a receiver last season. His stutter-step isn't fooling anyone, and he continues to break all runs to the outside. Bush does have his occasional moments of brilliance, though. With top-notch receiving skills and elusiveness, Bush needs a creative play-caller and an intelligent quarterback who understands how to best utilize hybrid players in a chess match against defensive coordinators.

Availability: "It's been fun, New Orleans." That just about sums it up. Sean Payton's
post-draft comments notwithstanding, Bush's camp has made it clear that it's time to move on after the drafting of Mark Ingram. Neither the Saints nor any other team is going to shell out $11.8 million in 2011 for a role player. If Bush wants his freedom, all he has to do is refuse to restructure his contract. He's essentially an unrestricted free agent right now. As PFT's Mike Florio and Saints beat writer Mike Triplett have suggested, Bush's ideal landing spot may be St. Louis as Steven Jackson's change of pace -- and a key pawn for Josh McDaniels' Patriots-style offense.

Update: Bush is now reversing course, stating his desire "first and foremost" to remain with the Saints on a new contract.

Prediction: Restructures, signs long-term deal with Saints.

2. Ryan Grant, Packers

Scouting Report: One of the most durable backs in the league while racking up 1,200+ rushing yards in 2008 and 2009, Grant carried the ball just eight times last year before going down with a season-ending ankle injury. Grant has been one of the least effective passing-down backs in the league, but he's a strong and reliable runner between the tackles.

Availability: Grant is slated to collect a $1.75 million roster bonus on the 15th day of the league year in addition to a $3.5 million base salary in the final year of his contract. The bad news is that he's coming off ankle surgery, James Starks has emerged as a capable starter, Alex Green was drafted in the third round, and Brandon Jackson may not reach unrestricted free agency. The good news is that the Packers will be defending their title with the strongest roster in the league. A healthy Grant is a more effective and proven runner than Starks.

Prediction: Stays with Packers

3. Willis McGahee, Ravens

Scouting Report: McGahee failed to repeat his short-yardage magic for a second straight season, and the Ravens were believed to be shopping him heavily at the October trade deadline. McGahee's workload tailed off afteward, and he finished the season with a career-low 3.76 yards per carry, including the playoffs. He graded out well below average in the metrics of Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders.

Availability: The Ravens aren't going to pay McGahee's $6 million base salary to back up Ray Rice for another season. McGahee is intent on testing the market for a chance at a starting gig, so there will be a mutual parting of ways. McGahee best fits in as a between-the-tackles complement to a more versatile lead back. Heading into his age-30 season, he may be left standing on the sidelines until a starter goes down with an injury in training camp. The Ravens could end up bringing him back at a much lower rate.

Prediction: Released, re-signs with Ravens.

4. Marion Barber, Cowboys

Scouting Report: After entering the year in a timeshare with Felix Jones, a painfully slow Barber played himself out of a job by averaging a scant 2.97 yards per carry in the season's first half. Perhaps most troubling, Barber wasn't even showing his trademark power in short-yardage situations. He ended up posting career-lows across the board, finishing near the bottom of the metrics used by both Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus. No one doubts Barber's toughness, but his soft tissue injuries the past two seasons are an additional red flag.

Availability: Barber is as good as gone unless owner Jerry Jones forks over a $500,000 roster bonus by June 3 or the start of the league year. If half-a-million seems relatively paltry, keep in mind that sum only preserves the right to pay Barber another $4.25 million in base salary. The addition of third-rounder DeMarco Murray ensures that Barber won't see another dime from the Cowboys after pocketing a $12 million signing bonus in 2008. Barber is going to have to accept a backup gig at this point in his career. Even if the Rams pick up a third-down back, they still have no insurance for a Steven Jackson injury.

Prediction: Released, signs with Rams.

5. Brandon Jacobs, Giants

Scouting Report: Relegated to a situational role behind Ahmad Bradshaw, Jacobs bounced back from a disappointing 2009 campaign with a career-best 5.6 yards per on just 147 carries. The Giants' plan to limit Jacobs' touches worked to a tee, as Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus rated the big back as a more effective per-play runner than impressive feature back Bradshaw. Although practically useless in the passing game, Jacobs is the quintessential "thunder" in a tandem attack.

Availability: Jacobs is due $4.65 million in base salary with Bradshaw's Giants future up in the air. In a bizarre offseason juxtaposition, Jacobs was giving mixed signals on the possibility of accepting a "fair" paycut at the same time his head coach was insisting the big back had "plenty left in the tank" and was deserving of more carries. Whether he settles for a gentle restructuring or not, Jacobs' roster spot seems secure.

Prediction: Stays with Giants.

6. Chester Taylor, Bears

Scouting Report: Among all backs with 100 carries, Taylor finished last in the NFL at 2.4 yards per carry while also bringing up the rear in Football Outsiders' efficiency ratings. Taylor's blocking ability saved him from the bottom rung of Pro Football Focus' player ratings. Our game charters noted on several occasions that Taylor lacked any semblance of a burst going through the line. The Bears' lead-blocking wasn't exactly stellar, but Matt Forte still managed a healthy 4.5 yards per on 125 more carries.

Availability: The Bears paid Taylor more than $6 million to watch him run on fumes last season. The $1.25 million due this year is reasonable in comparison, and the position was ignored in the draft. Turning 32 in September, Taylor has reached the stage where he's easily replaceable, however. GM Jerry Angelo made it clear the third-down specialist would have to earn his way onto the roster this summer..

Prediction: Released in final cuts.

More Running Back Release Candidates: Maurice Morris, Correll Buckhalter, LenDale White, Earnest Graham

HacheMan · May 17, 2011

The 2011 Running Back Market
"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." -- Bob Dylan

With apologies to ol' Mr. Zimmerman, we could use a weatherman right about now to decipher the winds of change in free agency. After faint February hope that mediation would lead to a new CBA freeing all four- and five-year vets, Judge Nelson's April injunction of the lockout seemed to herald a return to 2010 league rules.

Entering May, it was fair to believe an NFLPA win would be bittersweet for players with 4-5 years of accrued service. Mediation leading to a new CBA, on the other hand, would put those players back on the open market as unrestricted free agents. It seemed cut and dried as recently as last week that one of those two scenarios would play out. That's no longer the case. The NFL is now crafting alternative free-agency rules that will not replicate the 2010 blueprint. In other words, we could have a situation where four-year players remain beholden to their teams while five-year veterans gain freedom.

The upshot is that we have no idea on free-agency specifics as of press time. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart fantasy owners are already at their wits' end, pleading for serenity now.

What is clear post-draft is that free-agent running backs will find a depressed market once the new league year begins. The Bengals, Colts, and Giants are the teams with the most striking needs, but those could easily be filled by Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, and Ahmad Bradshaw. The majority of teams looking to round out their backfields will be shopping for complementary pieces, not workhorses.

As CBSSports.com's Rob Rang recently pointed out, the running back position is becoming specialized like starting pitcher, middle reliever, setup-man, and closer in baseball. For that reason, chess pieces (i.e. Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush) could have far more value than average starters.

Let's start with running backs certain to be available once transactions are allowed.

[SIZE=+2]Surefire Running Back Free Agents[/SIZE]

1. Cedric Benson, Bengals

Scouting Report: Benson was one of the most overworked backs in the league in 2009, grinding out tough yards against a string of stout defenses on his way to a career year. Those 23 carries per game caught up with him last season, as his per-carry average dropped from 4.2 to 3.5. More worrisome, his only four games over 4.0 yards per carry came against defenses ranked 32nd, 28th and 27th (twice) against the run. Throw in a checkered off-the-field history, and there are enough red flags here to scare off teams putting in their due diligence.

Availability: Benson has made it crystal clear that he's looking for one last serious contract in free agency. The Bengals ignored running back until the seventh round of the draft, and coach Marvin Lewis acknowledges that re-signing Benson will be the top priority once free agency begins. Lewis wants to turn the clock back to 2009, saddle up his plowhorse again, and use a defense/ground attack now that the Bengals are moving on from Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco, and Terrell Owens. In other words, the Bengals are set to make the same mistake in organizational philosophy that the Bears made in reaching for Benson at No. 4 overall in 2005. With the exception of the best defense of the past 25 years (2000 Ravens), stout defense and ball-control offense don't win Super Bowls -- elite quarterbacks do. Benson may think he can do better than $5 million per year. In related news, Benson is delusional.

Prediction: Bengals on a three-year, $15 million contract.

2. Darren Sproles, Chargers

Scouting Report: A true specialist, the undersized but explosive Sproles has been limited to passing-down duties and kick returns since entering the league. The past three years have taken on a Devin Hester effect. Sproles has shouldered more responsibility in the passing game only to see his effectiveness on returns wane. It's just as well. There hasn't been a better receiving back in the league since the start of the 2008 season, so Sproles' return duties should be scaled back as a nod to his passing-game prowess.

Availability: After collecting $13.9 million under the franchise tag the past two seasons, Sproles is due to finally hit the open market. The Bolts are expected to at least make an offer, but they're almost certain to be outbid by teams in need of a passing-down threat and kick-returner. The Dolphins and Rams figure to show the most interest. Tony Sparano is looking for a "homerun hitter" in the passing game while Josh McDaniels needs a Danny Woodhead type to round out his 2010 Patriots' attack in St. Louis.

Prediction: Rams on a four-year, $14 million contract.

3. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins

Scouting Report: Brown's per-play performance was down across the board, finishing with a career-worst 3.68 yards per carry in a contract year. Worse, his per-carry average dropped to 3.00 flat over the final eight games of the season while he was consistently outplayed by a 33-year-old Ricky Williams. A "walking stitch in personnel medical terms," Brown is a 29-year-old back with major wear and tear knee issues. One of the most dynamic backs in the league before a 2007 ACL tear, Brown is now purely a role player.

Availability: Bill Belichick is a big Brown fan, but that well dried up when the Pats drafted two backs in the first three rounds last month. The Dolphins have sidestepped questions about re-signing Brown. With big back Daniel Thomas now on board, GM Jeff Ireland is expected to target a "scatback" to share the load. The Dolphins have no depth behind Thomas, though, and Brown is "very interested" in returning to Miami with little projected interest on the open market.

Prediction: Dolphins on a two-year, $7 million contract.

4. Ricky Williams, Dolphins

Scouting Report: Maybe it was the three-year sabbatical. Maybe it's the yoga. Whatever the cause, the effect is that Williams has yet to hit the running-back wall as he enters his mid-30s. While Ronnie Brown wore down noticeably in November and December, Williams maintained an even per-carry average of 4.2 throughout the season. Considering the Dolphins' run-blocking woes late last year, it's realistic to believe Ricky can play at a high level for at least one more season.

Availability: Williams was expected to walk away from the game after his one-year extension ran out in early January. He reversed course, instead, suggesting he had hit on the "right formula" for stay healthy and successful into his mid-30s. Williams would prefer to stay in Miami, but he hasn't been given "reason for optimism" on that front. He can still help a contender in a complementary role. Parcells coaching tree member Todd Haley could use Ricky in Kansas City as between-the-tackles insurance for a rapidly declining Thomas Jones.

Prediction: Chiefs on a one-year, $1.5 million contract.



5. Kevin Smith, Lions

Scouting Report: The small 2010 sample size suggests Smith is the same back he was as a rookie. He's a pedestrian runner with above-average receiving skills. Unfortunately, his body is giving out after a ridiculous 450 carries his junior year at UCF, followed by a heavy workload his first season and a half in Detroit. Smith is coming off surgery to his thumb and right shoulder after spending last offseason recovering from a torn ACL. He also played through serious injuries to both shoulders in 2009.

Availability: The Lions failed to extend a tender to the three-year veteran, sending him to the open market. The Lions' actions suggest Smith is damaged goods. Though guaranteed money could be hard to come by, Smith may land a make-good deal as a backup / third-down back. He'll have to prove he's healthy in training camp and preseason action. Early offseason reports suggested Smith would love to play in Miami.

Prediction: Signs with Dolphins on non-guaranteed contract.

6. Clinton Portis, Redskins

Scouting Report: Due in large part to 325+ carries in four of his first five years with the Redskins, Portis is fourth among active backs in attempts before reaching his 30th birthday. Limited to 13-of-32 games the past two years, Portis has been dogged by serious concussion issues in addition to injuries to both knees, both ankles, a calf, a hip, his back, and his neck. While he can still grind out tough yards and pass block with the best of the best, Portis simply can't stay out of the trainers room. Any semblance of big-play ability vanished three years ago. It doesn't help Portis' cause that he's always a threat to run off at the mouth as well.

Availability: The Redskins released Portis in February, taking themselves off the hook for $25 million over the next three years -- including $8.25 million in 2011. With his body breaking down and his effectiveness waning, Portis offers little more than veteran savvy and killer pass protection. If he doesn't settle for the veteran minimum, there's a good chance Portis' NFL career is over. The Bears could give him a shot at protecting Jay Cutler if Chester Taylor fails to impress this summer.

Prediction: Signs with the Bears at the end of the summer.

7. Tiki Barber, Giants

Scouting Report: Barber is wading into uncharted waters as a 36-year-old back four years removed from his last carry. While the history of backs his age is rather ominous, Tiki does have several factors working in his favor. He was absolutely on top of his game when he walked away from a three-year average of 2,204 total yards in 2007. Additionally, his injury history is clean and his legs are fresh. What life he has left in those legs is pure guesswork, but it's certainly conceivable that Tiki could contribute valuable snaps on passing downs. Just remember: it wasn't that long ago when it was crazy to suggest the comebacks of Ricky Williams and Michael Vick would not go down in flames.

Availability: Barber's rights technically belong to the Giants, but the team has already made it clear that the 36-year-old will be released as soon as the lockout is officially lifted. Had they opted to retain Barber, the Mara family would be on the hook for the final two years of Barber's pre-retirement contract. Instead, Barber will try to latch on with his twin brother in Tampa, likely for the veteran league minimum plus incentives.

Prediction: Buccaneers on a one-year, $865,000 contract.

Other surefire free agent running backs: Cadillac Williams, Brian Westbrook, Jerious Norwood, Laurence Maroney, Julius Jones, Mike Bell, Mewelde Moore, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor, Larry Johnson, Dominic Rhodes, Ladell Betts, Kenneth Darby, Ladell Betts, Kareem Huggins

[SIZE=+2]Three- to Five-Year Restricted Free Agents[/SIZE]

1. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers

Scouting Report: Williams' 2010 per-play numbers slipped due to the Panthers' early-season QB and run-blocking woes. Over five years, his per-carry average of 5.0 yards stacks up with Barry Sanders and Chris Johnson -- and ahead of Adrian Peterson. As recently as 2008, he was arguably the best back in the NFL, showing great patience and vision, outstanding burst to the outside, toughness up the middle, and the requisite big play ability. Williams has missed 13 games the past two years with foot and ankle sprains, but the flip side is that he's never been overworked. His legs couldn't be more fresh heading into the 2011 season.

Availability: Williams drew a first- and third-round RFA tender from Carolina. As a veteran of five years, his freedom is dependant on the specifics of the next labor agrement. Having failed to erase doubts that he can handle the feature-back role in Denver, Knowshon Moreno will have plenty of company in the backfield under his new run-oriented head coach. John Fox's veteran fetish has an obvious outlet in form of Williams, who has starred under Fox's watch the past few seasons. Even if Williams ends up restricted again, the rebuilding Panthers are better off accepting draft picks in a trade.

Prediction: Broncos via trade or signing.

2. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants

Scouting Report: The all-purpose dual threat finally wrested control of the feature back job, breaking out for career-highs in carries (276), rushing yards (1,235), TDs (8), and receptions (47). Combining a big back's physicality with a small back's skill-set and elusiveness, Bradshaw graded out well in the ratings of Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders. On the negative side, Bradshaw was benched late in the season with ball protection issues. He's also recovering from a fourth procedure to his ankles and feet in the past two offseasons.

Availability: The Giants entered the offseason assuring the four-year vet that his signing would be a "priority." Originally expected to draw the highest possible tender, Bradshaw ended up at the second-round level with the bulk of his free-agent teammates. The Giants were reluctant to tender any of their RFAs, "so they decided to just tender everyone the same." Bradshaw is coming off a true breakout campaign, but we suspect teams would still be hesitant to part with a second-round pick considering his injury history and smashmouth style.

Prediction: Giants on his one-year restricted tender, leading to a long-term deal.

3. Joseph Addai, Colts

Scouting Report: Addai is a mediocre runner lacking homerun-hitting ability, but he works well in the Colts offense as a strong pass blocker and outlet receiver. The coaching staff has done well to protect him with reasonable workloads, but he's still missed 13 games over the past three years -- including half of last season with nerve damage to his neck and shoulder area. The Colts sorely missed Addai when he was out of the lineup in 2010.

Availability: In the midst of a depressed running-back market, Addai is expected to return to Indianapolis on his one-year tender. The contract specifics could change pending the labor outcome, but Addai's options will be limited at age 28 and coming off an injury-ravaged season. His skill set is worth more to Peyton Manning and the Colts than it is to other teams.

Prediction: Colts on his one-year restricted tender.

4. Michael Bush, Raiders

Scouting Report: An injury concern coming into the league, Bush has missed just three games in three years compared to nine for starter Darren McFadden. Bush grades out as above average in running, blocking, and receiving in Pro Football Focus' player ratings. Also a fine short-yardage hammer, Bush is key backup capable of carrying a starter's workload in case of emergency.

Availability: There was some confusion as to whether the four-year veteran's rookie season counts toward free agency since he spent the year on the Non-football Injury list with a broken leg. The Raiders moved to cover their backside regardless, assigning a prohibitive first- and third-round tender to the power back. Owner Al Davis has no intention of losing Bush, new free-agent rules or not.

Prediction: Raiders on his one-year restricted tender.

5. Mike Tolbert, Chargers

Scouting Report: A throwback to the days of running fullbacks, Tolbert was a godsend for the Bolts' ground game with rookie Ryan Mathews nursing an assortment of injuries. At 5'9/245, Tolbert has the bowling ball effect down pat, bouncing off and rolling over defenders. Tolbert racked up 735 yards and 11 scores on 182 carries (4.0 YPC) while chipping in 25 receptions last season for career bests across the board. Mathews figures to get the starting nod in 2011, but he should give way to a stronger Tolbert on passing downs and short-yardage situations.

Availability: As a three-year vet, Tolbert's free agency is restricted regardless of the CBA outcome. The Chargers' second-round tender is sufficient enough to scare away potential suitors following the smash-mouth runner's emergence as a capable timeshare back. Tobert will return to San Diego as a complement to Mathews.

Prediction: Chargers on his one-year restricted tender.



6. Tim Hightower, Cardinals

Scouting Report: Hightower outplayed Beanie Wells last season but saw his receptions drop from 63 to 21 with the unholy triumvirate of Derek Anderson, Max Hall, and John Skelton under center. The second straight major increase in yards per carry average was offset by fumbling issues that landed him in the doghouse by season's end. Hightower makes for a fine complementary back in a committee attack.

Availability: Hightower has put in just three seasons, so his hands are tied no matter the outcome of the CBA. The Cardinals immediately cited Hightower's fumble-itis as a primary motive for picking up Ryan Williams in the second round last month. Having fallen out of favor as the lead back, Hightower is headed for a scaled-back role -- possibly third on the depth chart.

Prediction: Cardinals on his one-year restricted tender.

7. Jason Snelling, Falcons

Scouting Report: Shattering the preconception of big backs, Snelling struggles in short-yardage situations but makes up for it by exhibiting smooth pass-catching skills. After posting career rushing numbers as a capable fill-in for Michael Turner in 2009, Snelling hauled in 44 receptions as Jerious Norwood's replacement on third downs last season. Solid in all facets but unspectacular, Snelling is the ideal old-school backup.

Availability: The five-year veteran was assigned a second-round tender in early March. Even with change-of-pace rookie Jacquizz Rodgers on board, Snelling is a good bet to return regardless of the labor situation. He's one of the few backups in the league capable of shouldering the same workload as the starter.

Prediction: Falcons on his one-year restricted tender.

8. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Patriots

Scouting Report: Green-Ellis has one major skill that endears him to his head coach: he stays away from negative plays like a bizarro Laurence Maroney. Green-Ellis is the textbook definition of a replacement-level talent, but he does well in short-yardage, effectively kills the clock, and has a knack for falling forward for extra yardage. His counting stats were artificially inflated in a breakout campaign because the Patriots played with a commanding lead in all but one game from mid-season on.

Availability: "Law Firm" is a restricted free agent with three accrued years, so he won't hit the open market regardless of the labor outcome. Tendered at the second-round level, Green-Ellis isn't going anywhere even after a career year in 2010. His workload figures to be scaled back significantly, though, with early-round backs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley added to the backfield mix.

Prediction: Patriots on his one-year restricted tender.

9. Jerome Harrison, Eagles

Scouting Report: Harrison and his staunch defenders had been requesting a change of scenery for some time when he was dealt to the Eagles for Mike Bell. His role actually decreased in Philly, but he continued to flash in limited playing time, averaging 6.0 yards on 40 carries as the change-of-pace to LeSean McCoy. Harrison's career per-carry average of 4.8 suggests he's long been under-utilized, but he's yet to meet a coach who believes he can hold up to a starter's workload.

Availability: Like Williams and Addai, Harrison has already accrued five years of NFL service. He received a tender offer before the March 3 deadline, though the level is unclear. Harrison is in search of a bigger role at age 28, but the Eagles reportedly want him back as McCoy's caddy.

Prediction: Eagles on his one-year restricted tender.

10. Brandon Jackson, Packers

Scouting Report: A fine role player, Jackson was asked to shoulder too heavy of a burden in Green Bay's offense when Ryan Grant went down for the season. Jackson is a quality receiver with a knack for blitz-pickup, but he's simply not up to the task as a runner. Though he finished with career-high counting stats, Jackson managed just 3.7 yards per carry before James Starks bailed him out in the playoffs.

Availability: After initial speculation to the contrary, Jackson did receive an RFA tender -- likely of the original-pick variety. As a four-year veteran, his freedom hinges on the outcome of the labor squabble. It's not inconceivable that Green Bay could rescind the offer after picking up third-down successor, Alex Green, in the third round of the draft. Scouts Inc.'s Matt Williamson suggests Jackson as Mewelde Moore's successor in Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Steelers on a two-year, $3 million contract.

Other three- to five-year restricted running backs: LeRon McClain, Jalen Parmele, Marcel Reece, Mike Hart, Patrick Cobbs, Brian Leonard, John Kuhn, Lynell Hamilton

[SIZE=+2]Trade Candidates[/SIZE]

1. Beanie Wells, Cardinals

Scouting Report: Wells never came close to his 2009 explosiveness and physicality after tearing his meniscus in the preseason finale last summer. He recovered slowly from the knee scope and looked timid and plodding after a mid-season setback. Wells finished his second season with a per-carry average of 3.4 while bringing up the rear in Pro Football Focus' "Elusive Rating" for running backs.

Availability: The Cardinals shot down speculation that the addition of second-rounder Ryan Williams was a "message" being sent to Wells or a harbinger of a trade in the works. That didn't stop one local columnist from officially declaring Wells a first-round bust after one impressive season and one injured season. Preferring a two-back attack, coach Ken Whisenhunt doesn't envision Williams carrying the load in Arizona. Wells put enough on tape late in 2009 to believe he's every bit as talented as Williams -- as long as his knee checks out.

Prediction: Stays with Cardinals

2. Tashard Choice, Cowboys

Scouting Report: Choice has quite simply produced every time he's been given a fair shake. It wasn't long after Choice's game-changing Week 1 fumble, though, that owner Jerry Jones began complaining about his lack of special teams value while standing firmly behind an ineffective Marion Barber. The most well-rounded back in Dallas the past three years, Choice has averaged 100+ yards in nine career games with at least 10 touches. He's sitting on impressive averages of 4.8 yards per carry and 8.0 yards per reception in his three-year career.

Availability: For whatever reason, new head coach Jason Garrett is "not enamored" of Choice. We trust that he has his reasons. Let's hope they go beyond special teams value. The Cowboys' official website acknowledges that Choice was shopped last season to no avail. With DeMarco Murray on board as Choice's potential third-down replacement, the front office will be fielding calls again this summer.

Prediction: Stays with Cowboys, available at the October trade deadline.

3. Steve Slaton, Texans

Scouting Report: The combination of fumbling issues, general ineffectiveness, and neck surgery sent Slaton from the penthouse to the outhouse by the time training camp rolled around last summer. His ideal role has always been passing-down specialist, but the Texans soon realized Arian Foster was too valuable to take off the field in those situations. Slaton was largely relegated to kickoff-return duty, rushing just 19 times and catching three passes in 2010. He's breaking new NFL ground as a running back playing with a cervical fusion in his neck.

Availability: Foster is entrenched as the starter, 2010 second-rounder Ben Tate is now healthy, and veteran Derrick Ward was brought back on a one-year deal. Slaton is the odd man out for a team that won't carry four tailbacks. GM Rick Smith figures to shop the third-down back around, but the rest of the league knows he could be available for free by September. Slaton figures to fetch no more than a conditional late-round pick. The zone-blocking Redskins, with Slaton's former offensive coordinator calling the plays, could have interest.

Prediction: Redskins via trade.



[SIZE=+1]Release Candidates[/SIZE]

1. Reggie Bush, Saints

Scouting Report: Bush hasn't made it through a 16-game season in five years, so it was no surprise that he missed half of 2010 with yet another lower-leg injury. Bush's effectiveness waned as a runner and a receiver last season. His stutter-step isn't fooling anyone, and he continues to break all runs to the outside. Bush does have his occasional moments of brilliance, though. With top-notch receiving skills and elusiveness, Bush needs a creative play-caller and an intelligent quarterback who understands how to best utilize hybrid players in a chess match against defensive coordinators.

Availability: "It's been fun, New Orleans." That just about sums it up. Sean Payton's
post-draft comments notwithstanding, Bush's camp has made it clear that it's time to move on after the drafting of Mark Ingram. Neither the Saints nor any other team is going to shell out $11.8 million in 2011 for a role player. If Bush wants his freedom, all he has to do is refuse to restructure his contract. He's essentially an unrestricted free agent right now. As PFT's Mike Florio and Saints beat writer Mike Triplett have suggested, Bush's ideal landing spot may be St. Louis as Steven Jackson's change of pace -- and a key pawn for Josh McDaniels' Patriots-style offense.

Update: Bush is now reversing course, stating his desire "first and foremost" to remain with the Saints on a new contract.

Prediction: Restructures, signs long-term deal with Saints.

2. Ryan Grant, Packers

Scouting Report: One of the most durable backs in the league while racking up 1,200+ rushing yards in 2008 and 2009, Grant carried the ball just eight times last year before going down with a season-ending ankle injury. Grant has been one of the least effective passing-down backs in the league, but he's a strong and reliable runner between the tackles.

Availability: Grant is slated to collect a $1.75 million roster bonus on the 15th day of the league year in addition to a $3.5 million base salary in the final year of his contract. The bad news is that he's coming off ankle surgery, James Starks has emerged as a capable starter, Alex Green was drafted in the third round, and Brandon Jackson may not reach unrestricted free agency. The good news is that the Packers will be defending their title with the strongest roster in the league. A healthy Grant is a more effective and proven runner than Starks.

Prediction: Stays with Packers

3. Willis McGahee, Ravens

Scouting Report: McGahee failed to repeat his short-yardage magic for a second straight season, and the Ravens were believed to be shopping him heavily at the October trade deadline. McGahee's workload tailed off afteward, and he finished the season with a career-low 3.76 yards per carry, including the playoffs. He graded out well below average in the metrics of Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders.

Availability: The Ravens aren't going to pay McGahee's $6 million base salary to back up Ray Rice for another season. McGahee is intent on testing the market for a chance at a starting gig, so there will be a mutual parting of ways. McGahee best fits in as a between-the-tackles complement to a more versatile lead back. Heading into his age-30 season, he may be left standing on the sidelines until a starter goes down with an injury in training camp. The Ravens could end up bringing him back at a much lower rate.

Prediction: Released, re-signs with Ravens.

4. Marion Barber, Cowboys

Scouting Report: After entering the year in a timeshare with Felix Jones, a painfully slow Barber played himself out of a job by averaging a scant 2.97 yards per carry in the season's first half. Perhaps most troubling, Barber wasn't even showing his trademark power in short-yardage situations. He ended up posting career-lows across the board, finishing near the bottom of the metrics used by both Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus. No one doubts Barber's toughness, but his soft tissue injuries the past two seasons are an additional red flag.

Availability: Barber is as good as gone unless owner Jerry Jones forks over a $500,000 roster bonus by June 3 or the start of the league year. If half-a-million seems relatively paltry, keep in mind that sum only preserves the right to pay Barber another $4.25 million in base salary. The addition of third-rounder DeMarco Murray ensures that Barber won't see another dime from the Cowboys after pocketing a $12 million signing bonus in 2008. Barber is going to have to accept a backup gig at this point in his career. Even if the Rams pick up a third-down back, they still have no insurance for a Steven Jackson injury.

Prediction: Released, signs with Rams.

5. Brandon Jacobs, Giants

Scouting Report: Relegated to a situational role behind Ahmad Bradshaw, Jacobs bounced back from a disappointing 2009 campaign with a career-best 5.6 yards per on just 147 carries. The Giants' plan to limit Jacobs' touches worked to a tee, as Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus rated the big back as a more effective per-play runner than impressive feature back Bradshaw. Although practically useless in the passing game, Jacobs is the quintessential "thunder" in a tandem attack.

Availability: Jacobs is due $4.65 million in base salary with Bradshaw's Giants future up in the air. In a bizarre offseason juxtaposition, Jacobs was giving mixed signals on the possibility of accepting a "fair" paycut at the same time his head coach was insisting the big back had "plenty left in the tank" and was deserving of more carries. Whether he settles for a gentle restructuring or not, Jacobs' roster spot seems secure.

Prediction: Stays with Giants.

6. Chester Taylor, Bears

Scouting Report: Among all backs with 100 carries, Taylor finished last in the NFL at 2.4 yards per carry while also bringing up the rear in Football Outsiders' efficiency ratings. Taylor's blocking ability saved him from the bottom rung of Pro Football Focus' player ratings. Our game charters noted on several occasions that Taylor lacked any semblance of a burst going through the line. The Bears' lead-blocking wasn't exactly stellar, but Matt Forte still managed a healthy 4.5 yards per on 125 more carries.

Availability: The Bears paid Taylor more than $6 million to watch him run on fumes last season. The $1.25 million due this year is reasonable in comparison, and the position was ignored in the draft. Turning 32 in September, Taylor has reached the stage where he's easily replaceable, however. GM Jerry Angelo made it clear the third-down specialist would have to earn his way onto the roster this summer..

Prediction: Released in final cuts.

More Running Back Release Candidates: Maurice Morris, Correll Buckhalter, LenDale White, Earnest Graham

HacheMan · May 18, 2011

The 2011 Wide Receiver Market

This is the third part in our 2011 Offseason Market Analysis.

For more position breakdowns, click here:

The Quarterback Market
The Running Back Market

Wesseling will roll out tight ends next.

[SIZE=+1]Surefire Free Agent Wide Receivers[/SIZE]

1. Braylon Edwards, Jets

Scouting Report: Much is made of Edwards' penchant for drops, but few receivers separate downfield consistently enough to be in position for such mammoth vertical strikes. He posted a career-best 17.06 yards per catch average last season, and seven touchdowns were Edwards' most since 2007. He dropped just four passes all year, though two occurred on Week 13 Monday Night Football for the world to see. Edwards is not a physical wideout and can be penalty prone. He is a difference-making, game-breaking vertical threat with dominant natural ability.

Availability: Edwards has six accrued years and is assured of hitting unrestricted free agency. His market could be monstrous if four- and five-year free agents like Sidney Rice and Santonio Holmes are restricted. Edwards has indicated that he's willing to consider a hometown discount to stay with the Jets, although Holmes is GM Mike Tannenbaum's priority. We suspect Edwards will resurface elsewhere, capitalizing on his last chance for a blockbuster deal at age 28.

Prediction: Bears on a five-year, $40 million contract.

2. Santana Moss, Redskins

Scouting Report: Moss is 32, but provided reason to think he has two or three big years left by changing his game under Mike Shanahan. Used in the slot more than ever, Moss responded with a career-high 93 catches and the second best yardage total of his career. Moss can still get deep, and he'll enter free agency having shown impressive versatility. Though no longer a No. 1 receiver in the truest sense, Moss can play in any offense and is highly elusive in the open field. He is a "character guy" and has missed just two games in the last four seasons.

Availability: Moss' contract has voided, though his preference is to stay in D.C. The Skins drafted three wideouts, which suggests they're prepared to move on. Due to his age and lack of recent playoff appearances, Moss may be willing to take less to play for a contender. He'll be a quality locker-room addition, and unlike Steve Smith won't cost draft pick compensation.

Prediction: Patriots on a three-year, $16 million contract.

3. Terrell Owens, Bengals

Scouting Report: T.O. is going on 38, an age at which most receivers have already fallen "off the cliff." Owens has held off Father Time with incredible work ethic, although a torn left meniscus suffered in Week 15 could spell the beginning of the end. Still dominant against single teams, Owens capitalized as Chad Ochocinco garnered the majority of defensive attention with the Bengals last season. T.O. had surgery on December 20, and if it gets him back to the form he showed last year, he has plenty of on-field value left. The off-field stuff will keep his market soft.

Availability: Owens, who played on a one-year deal in Cincinnati, hopes to play two more in the NFL. He's publicly expressed interest in the Jets. The good news is that Owens will come as cheaply as ever. The bad news is few teams will deem him worth the risk. We suspect he won't sign anywhere until late in camp. If there is no camp, he may not sign until after Week 1.

Prediction: Redskins on a one-year, $2.5 million contract.

4. Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars

Scouting Report: A major disappointment in Jacksonville last year, Sims-Walker developed a diva reputation despite lacking the resume to justify it. The 26-year-old was billed as a complainer and off-field character risk who's also prone to injury. Since missing his entire first season due to the aftereffects of a college ACL tear, Sims-Walker has yet to play a 16-game season. That said, when motivated and healthy MSW has shown playmaking ability. He's caught 14 touchdown passes in his last 27 starts and averaged 13.51 yards per reception in his career.

Availability: The Jags washed their hands of Sims-Walker by failing to extend the former third-round pick a restricted free agent tender in February. Loose reports have connected him to the Rams and Texans. Ideally, a team would sign Sims-Walker to a one-year, "prove-it" contract that he could parlay into a multi-year commitment after proving his health and maturity.

Prediction: Dolphins on a one-year, $2.25 million contract.



5. Randy Moss, Titans

Scouting Report: Arguably the greatest deep threat in NFL history from 1998 to '09, Moss' game fell apart last year. Perhaps the writing was on the wall at the end of the season before. Moss failed to top 75 yards in any of his final eight games in 2009, and only once exceeded 60 last year. While Moss still commanded double teams to open the 2010 campaign, he struggled to separate and was weeded out of the Patriots' offense by Tom Brady before his October 6 trade to Minnesota. A bad attitude resulted in Moss' release less than a month later. Moss finished the season in Tennessee, playing 19.8 percent of the Titans' offensive snaps in the final four games.

Availability: Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt has confirmed that Moss won't be back, and speculation of a return to New England has been shot down by Patriots beat writers. The Jets are rumored to have some interest in Moss. At this point, he's essentially in the same boat as T.O. but has shown less than Owens recently. It's just hard to say if Moss has any believers left. Another fairly logical match could be St. Louis, where old OC Josh McDaniels is now running the offense.

Prediction: Jets on a one-year, $2 million contract.

6. Mark Clayton, Rams

Scouting Report: Acquired in September for "late-round considerations," Clayton immediately earned a starting job on the Rams and amassed a team-high 306 yards on 23 grabs through four games before tearing his patellar tendon in the first quarter of Week 5. According to his agent, Clayton is now fully recovered. Major knee injuries are always major concerns for NFL receivers, however, and Clayton already possessed average explosiveness for a 5-foot-10, 195-pound wideout. The 22nd overall pick in the 2005 draft, Clayton's career has ultimately been a disappointment. He lacks special qualities and is more possession/slot receiver than deep threat.

Availability: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported in March that Clayton's return to the Rams is "all but a slam-dunk." Most teams will balk at Clayton because of the knee and his lack of dominant pre-injury talent. Clayton, turning 29 before the season, had better hope St. Louis' interest remains strong after the team used two middle-round picks on wide receivers.

Prediction: Rams on a one-year, $1.5 million contract.

7. Plaxico Burress, Giants

Scouting Report: Burress began a two-year sentence for felony gun possession in September 2009 and will be released on June 6 for good behavior. After so much prison time at age 34, there's no way to tell what he has left. In his prime, Burress was a physical, 6-foot-5, 232-pound red-zone monster with 27 TDs in his last 42 starts. Lacking quickness and homerun deep speed, Plax atoned with exceptional use of his body to shield defensive backs and get open. He was a pure "hands catcher" with massive mitts and long arms. Criticisms usually referred to his lackadaisical on-field effort and commitment level. Plax has never been a coaching staff favorite.

Availability: The Giants cut Plax five months before his 2009 sentencing, so he will return to the NFL market as an unrestricted free agent. The league's suspension lasted only as long as Burress was behind bars. The Jets were most heavily linked to Plax when it still seemed possible he'd play football in 2009. Other teams connected to him were Tampa Bay and Chicago.

Prediction: Bucs on a one-year, $1.25 million contract.

8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Ravens

Scouting Report: More talk than walk at this stage of his career, Houshmandzadeh complained his way through a 2010 season that saw him post personal lows across the board since 2003. He repeatedly requested more snaps and targets, but didn't earn it with performance. Housh lacks playmaking ability and run-after-catch skills, and dropped six of his 58 targets as a Raven. Now entering his age-34 season, Houshmandzadeh is only going to get worse. With a reputation as a locker-room lawyer, he'll find slim pickings on the unrestricted free agent market.

Availability: Housh reversed course after the end of Baltimore's season and said he'd like to re-sign. But the Ravens made a pointed effort to get faster at the position, drafting Torrey Smith in round two and Tandon Doss in the fourth. Doss can do everything Housh did as a slot receiver and third-down threat. Housh may have to settle for a minimum contract in-season.

Prediction: Jaguars on a one-year, $865,000 contract.

Other surefire free agent receivers: Antonio Bryant, Kevin Curtis, Brandon Stokley, Devin Aromashodu, Kelley Washington, Donte' Stallworth, Dwayne Jarrett, Sam Hurd, Legedu Naanee, Chansi Stuckey, Michael Clayton, Brian Finneran, Rashied Davis, Greg Lewis.

[SIZE=+1]Three- to Five-Year Restricted Free Agents[/SIZE]

1. Santonio Holmes, Jets

Scouting Report: Holmes has been pigeonholed by some as a one-trick pony deep threat, the role he played opposite Hines Ward in Pittsburgh. In reality, Holmes is one of the better "YAC" wideouts in football in addition to a homerun hitter. The 27-year-old has averaged 15.96 yards a catch with 26 touchdowns in 58 career starts, also showing a knack for making big plays in key moments. Holmes is capable of playing all three receiver positions, although he's spent most of his time at split end. When he's 100 percent, there aren't ten better receivers in the game.

Availability: The Jets assigned Holmes a first- and third-round restricted tender, and declared re-signing him their top offseason priority. Holmes said publicly that he won't play for the one-year tag, but New York wants to lock him up long term anyway. The sides should be able to strike an agreement, though it may cost the Jets one or two of their other big-ticket free agents.

Prediction: Jets on a five-year, $50 million contract.



2. Sidney Rice, Vikings

Scouting Report: Rice has a rare makeup at 6-foot-4, 202 with incredible ball skills, a massive catch radius, and the ability to take over a game. According to Pro Football Focus, Rice has dropped just five of his 212 targets over the past three seasons. Only 24 years old, Rice's arrow is pointing skyward, assuming he can overcome the injury bug. Rice was dogged by a bum hamstring and high ankle sprain as a rookie, a right PCL sprain in 2008, major hip surgery in 2010, and a concussion to close out last season. He was particularly slow to recover from the knee and hip injuries. Still, this is a true "No. 1 receiver" with 18 touchdowns in 26 career starts.

Availability: The Vikings offered Rice a multi-year deal in February. The proposal was rejected, so the team countered with a first-round tender. Rice still hopes to test unrestricted free agency as a four-year vet, and in April Pro Football Weekly reported that the Rams had interest. The Vikings hold his rights, however, and have no intentions of letting Rice get away.

Prediction: Vikings on a four-year, $37.5 million contract.

3. James Jones, Packers

Scouting Report: Jones is a physical receiver with elite run-after-catch skills, just a notch below Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin as a tackle breaker. He also accelerates well enough to beat defensive backs downfield. At 6-foot-1, 218, Jones is a prototypical flanker in a West Coast offense, but a penchant for back-breaking drops has been his downfall in the pros. Jones has 17 drops over the past two years, and his last two would've gone for long touchdowns in the playoffs. The miscues could be partially related to Jones' focus during inconsistent playing time. He's been a rotational player in Green Bay, only playing around 55 percent of the snaps.

Availability: Jones, 27, was extended an original pick tender in February, but the Packers went on to use the 64th pick on Randall Cobb. Donald Driver is expected back behind Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson. Brett Swain also figures into the mix. The Packers may balk at paying Jones roughly $2 million to be a backup, and instead rescind the tender. As a free agent, Jones could draw significant interest from ex-Packers personnel man John Schneider in Seattle.

Prediction: Seahawks on a two-year, $7.5 million contract.

4. Steve Breaston, Cardinals

Scouting Report: Viewed as a kick return-only prospect out of Michigan, Breaston exceeded expectations enough for the Cardinals to eventually deem Anquan Boldin expendable. Breaston has delivered three straight 700-plus yard seasons, though the team grew tired of his achy right knee down the stretch of 2010. Breaston has battled the same bad knee since 2009. He had surgery on the joint last September, and fell behind rookie Andre Roberts on the depth chart after experiencing late-season swelling. Breaston can run, but is a poor blocker and dropped eight of his 82 targets last season. We haven't seen annual growth from the 27-year-old (28 in August).

Availability:</I> The Cardinals assigned a first-round restricted tender to Breaston, protecting themselves in case 2010 labor rules continue into 2011. He won't be an unrestricted free agent barring a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Our assumption for now is that the tender will stand, and Breaston will play the 2011 season in Arizona for roughly $2.5 million.

Prediction: Cardinals on his one-year tender.

5. Malcom Floyd, Chargers

Scouting Report: Floyd is a long-armed, big-bodied receiver at 6-foot-5, 225. He's been used as a deep threat in San Diego's vertical scheme, averaging 17.96 yards per catch over the past three seasons. Floyd has reliable hands and is essentially a poor man's Vincent Jackson. Playing alongside V-Jax and Antonio Gates throughout his career, however, Floyd has never dealt with double-team coverage and blocks poorly for his size. He is merely a complementary wideout with a career high of 45 catches. Floyd was a late bloomer and turns 30 before the season.

Availability: Floyd received a first- and third-round tender after playing last season on a one-year, $3.168 million deal. The Chargers could rescind the tender if they acquire Steve Smith from Carolina, as is rumored. Floyd is more replaceable part than indispensable talent, but he could find a home with the Panthers based on his background with new OC Rob Chudzinski.

Prediction: Panthers on a three-year, $13.5 million contract.

6. Steve Smith, Giants

Scouting Report: Smith's December microfracture surgery is the biggest blow to his stock. Already short on deep speed, Smith's game relies on quickness and a knack for finding soft spots in zone defenses. It's believed he may open the year on PUP, costing him the first six games. On the bright side, Smith's age (26) gives him better odds of healing fully. At 100 percent, Smith is a savvy route runner who operates primarily in the slot, and on underneath routes when positioned at flanker. He has reliable hands, but averages just 10.85 yards per catch in his career.

Availability: Smith's major knee surgery will make him unattractive to other teams, and there are indications the Giants have prepared for life without him. They used the 83rd overall pick on slot receiver Jerrel Jernigan, and extended Smith an original pick tender when the rest of their restricted free agents got more expensive tags. Giants GM Jerry Reese also balked at signing Smith to the long-term deal he requested. No team will aggressively pursue this player.

Prediction: Giants on his one-year tender.

Other three- to five-year restricted wide receivers: Jacoby Jones, Lance Moore, Early Doucet, Brad Smith, Laurent Robinson, Maurice Stovall, Eric Weems, Derek Hagan, Micheal Spurlock, David Clowney, Johnnie Lee Higgins.

[SIZE=+1]Trade Candidates[/SIZE]

1. Steve Smith, Panthers

Scouting Report: A double team-commanding All Pro in his prime, Smith has battled nagging injuries and atrocious QB play over the last two seasons. His yards-per-catch average is down three years running, and Smith has started 16 games just once in his career. Injuries and declining production are red flags for any 32-year-old, though there is reason to believe Smith has been more affected by his situation than physical letdown. He continued to show explosive ability when working from the slot last year, and was a scoring machine with Matt Moore leading the Carolina offense in 2009. There is risk here, but a potentially big-time reward.

Availability: Smith has requested a trade -- even if he won't say so explicitly -- and leaked to the media his preference to play for the Ravens or Chargers. One obstacle could be his contract, set to pay Smith $14.75 million over the next two years. It's possible he'll be willing to restructure to play for a contender. New England is also a rumored landing spot, but aggressive San Diego GM A.J. Smith has confirmed interest and the offense to fit Smith's skills nicely.

Prediction: Chargers via trade.

2. Lee Evans, Bills

Scouting Report: Evans appeared to be emerging as one of the NFL's top deep threats from 2004 to 2008, averaging 16.03 yards per catch with 32 touchdowns in 73 starts. He's followed up with back-to-back career lows in receptions and yards, while being unseated as Buffalo's No. 1 receiver by Steve Johnson. Now 30 years old, Evans remains a relatively efficient pass catcher, but his explosiveness seems to be waning. The Bills have also installed a shotgun-heavy, short-passing based offense to suit weak-armed quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. In turn, the scheme doesn't play to Evans' strengths as a field-stretching vertical wideout.

Availability: Evans is due a $1.5 million bonus on the fifth day of the league year, which begins after the lockout. That bonus would be followed by a $3.275 million salary. While the Bills' decision to pass on A.J. Green in the draft indicates they are counting on another year of Evans, they may be all ears when trading is allowed. Second-year wideouts David Nelson, Donald Jones, Naaman Roosevelt, and Marcus Easley all have promise and warrant more playing time.

Prediction: Stays with Bills, traded in 2012.

More Wide Receiver Trade Candidates: Limas Sweed, Mardy Gilyard, Malcolm Kelly.

[SIZE=+1]Release Candidates[/SIZE]

1. Roy Williams, Cowboys

Scouting Report: Williams maxed out his talent under Mike Martz in '06 -- his lone Pro Bowl season -- and it's been downhill from there. Though he routinely draws rave reviews in practice, Williams seems to have packed it in when the bullets fly since signing a six-year, $54 million contract in 2008. Prone to drops and fumbles, Williams has struggled to get open against single teams while feuding with the coaching staff. It's well known in Dallas that new coach Jason Garrett is not one of Williams' proponents. Entering his age-30 campaign, Williams is due a $5.11 million salary in 2011. He lost his starting job to rookie Dez Bryant down last season's stretch.

Availability: Williams is also said to be due a roster bonus that brings his total would-be 2011 compensation to $9.25 million. A third receiver now, it's difficult to imagine him returning without a drastic pay cut. Williams' connections throughout the league include Martz in Chicago and Wade Phillips in Houston. He'd essentially be a rehab project in another locale.

Prediction: Released, signs with Texans.

2. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals

Scouting Report: In Ochocinco's defense, he spent the vast majority of last season doubled up while T.O. preyed on single coverage on the opposite side. Clearly unable to separate from loaded defenses, however, Ocho's production hit rock bottom as he refused to go across the middle on crossing routes to avoid the double teams. He feuded openly with Marvin Lewis after the season, and multiple reports insist Ochocinco has "lost his nerve and work ethic," and even "gone off the deep end." He is an aging, declining athlete with a questionable will to win. Once a speed receiver, Ocho has averaged just 12.54 yards per reception in his last 42 games.

Availability: Cincinnati turned the page on Ochocinco by drafting A.J. Green, and the 33-year-old career Bengal will be cut once transactions are allowed. Ocho won't have a big market, but there are multiple connectable teams. Redskins owner Dan Snyder wanted Ocho desperately two years ago, and still has a veteran receiver need. Ocho's old position coach, Hue Jackson, is now the head man in Oakland. He and Bill Belichick are mutual admirers. New Falcons quarterbacks coach Bob Bratkowski was Ochocinco's offensive coordinator in Cincinnati.

Prediction: Released, signs with Patriots.

3. Chris Chambers, Chiefs

Scouting Report: Temporarily rejuvenated after being claimed off waivers from San Diego in October 2009, Chambers seemed to call it a career last year. He was handed a three-year, $15 million contract in March, failed to get open despite much more defensive attention paid to bookend Dwayne Bowe, and was benched after Kansas City's Week 4 bye in favor of rotating undrafted rookies. Chambers had some big-play ability in his prime, but his hands have long been suspect and he's now 33 years old. He averaged 9.68 yards per reception last season.

Availability: The Chiefs used their first-round pick on Jonathan Baldwin, who will be the new starter opposite Bowe. Chambers definitely won't return at his $2.9 million salary. He has background with Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan and Ravens OC Cam Cameron, but neither will rush to sign a declining wideout after both upgraded their receiver corps in the draft.

Prediction: Released, signs with team that suffers injuries at receiver.

4. Donald Driver, Packers

Scouting Report: Driver's legacy in Green Bay may the only factor keeping him afloat. After dual knee surgeries in the 2010 offseason, Driver was rarely able to practice during the year and his big-play ability was mitigated en route to a career-low 11.1 yards per catch and his worst post-reception average since 2004. This was despite the Packers making an honest effort to scale back Driver's snaps and use him almost strictly in the slot. Driver is now 36, so the arrow is pointing downward. He's also surrounded by much younger, more explosive receivers.

Availability: We suspect Driver is safe for one more season, but the Packers could easily afford to release him this year. He's due $5 million in 2011 salary and bonuses, and No. 64 overall pick Randall Cobb will be ready to handle slot receiver duties sooner rather than later. Green Bay may ultimately have to decide between keeping Driver or free agent James Jones.

Prediction: Stays with Packers, retires in 2012.

5. Bernard Berrian, Vikings

Scouting Report: Berrian signed a six-year, $43.4 million blockbuster with the Vikes in 2008, delivered a career-best 964-yard first season, and has all but fallen off the map since. He was plagued by hamstring problems throughout 2009, and in 2010 became one of the least effective receivers in football. A deep threat once upon a time, the 30-year-old Berrian is averaging 10.48 yards per reception across his last 30 appearances. He adds nothing as a blocker, lacks any hint of physicality in his game, and is due a $3.9 million salary for the 2011 season.

Availability: ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Berrian was in danger of being released in March. The Vikings intend to sign Sidney Rice long term, and he has supplanted Berrian atop the depth chart along with Percy Harvin. Berrian will resurface elsewhere, perhaps with old OC Darrell Bevell in Seattle or wide receivers coach Ron Turner in Indianapolis.

Prediction: Released, signs with Seahawks.

More Wide Receiver Release Candidates: Devery Henderson, Michael Jenkins, Justin Gage, Patrick Crayton, Antwaan Randle El, Bryant Johnson, Arnaz Battle, Craig Davis.

HacheMan · May 25, 2011

The 2011 Tight End Market
This is the fourth and final part in our 2011 Offseason Market Analysis for offensive skill-position free agents and trade candidates.

For the other position breakdowns, click here:

The Quarterback Market
The Running Back Market
The Wide Receiver Market

Let's start with tight ends certain to be available once transactions are allowed.

[SIZE=+2]Surefire Tight End Free Agents[/SIZE]

1. Bo Scaife, Titans

Scouting Report: After posting career highs of 58 receptions and 561 yards in 2008, Scaife's receiving numbers dropped off for the second straight year. He managed just 36 receptions for 318 yards while being exposed as one of the league's worst run-blocking tight ends. Scaife is no longer a threat after the catch, and he adds nothing to the red-zone offense. His Titans career speaks more about being in the right place at the right time than it does about his talent level. Seeing his name atop this list is a dead giveaway about the lack of quality on the tight-end market this offseason.

Availability: Scaife has been overpaid as the Titans' franchise player for two year. A college roommate of Vince Young, Scaife was finally sent to the pine late last season, so the Titans could get a long look at the more talented Jared Cook. The Titans will make no effort to bring Scaife back this summer. The Bills, with little bankable depth at the position, could have interest.

Prediction: Bills

2. Daniel Graham, Broncos

Scouting Report: Graham has always been more blocker than receiver, but his contributions in the passing game reached new lows last year. Only three NFL tight ends played more than Graham's 982 snaps, and yet he managed just 1.1 receptions per game, 9.25 yards per game, and 8.2 yards per catch. His best bet may be to go the Alge Crumpler route, bulking up as an extra lineman in jumbo packages.

Availability: The new Denver regime cut ties with Graham in early March, saving more than $5 million for the 2011 season. He won't be in demand at age 32, but Seattle makes sense as a landing spot. The Seahawks recruited Graham hard in 2007, and new offensive line coach Tom Cable was on the staff at Colorado when Graham starred for the Buffaloes.

Prediction: Seahawks

3. Randy McMichael, Chargers

Scouting Report: One of the most dangerous tight ends in the league from 2002-2006, McMichael hasn't exhibited after-the-catch ability since a broken tibia and ligament damage in 2008. He did show nice hands as a late-season fill-in for Antonio Gates, but McMichael is stretched as anything more than an emergency option. His body can't hold up to the pounding of 16 games at age 32.

Availability: McMichael's contract with the Chargers expired after the season, sending him to the open market. His best bet is to re-sign in San Diego as Gates insurance.

Prediction: Chargers

Other surefire free agent tight ends: Chris Baker, Ben Patrick, Donald Lee, Desmond Clark, Reggie Kelly,Jonathan Stupar, Greg Estandia

[SIZE=+2]Three- to Five-Year Restricted Free Agents[/SIZE]

1. Zach Miller, Raiders

Scouting Report: Easily the top tight end available and one of the premier all-around talents at his position, Miller has been the Raiders' top receiving threat since he entered the league in 2007. Last season was a mixed bag, as Miller's production dropped by six receptions and 120 yards. He garnered rave reviews for his toughness, though, playing through a painful bout of plantar fasciitis that sapped his effectiveness from Halloween through Thanksgiving. Now healthy and not yet 26 years old, Miller is the ideal candidate for a long-term commitment.

Availability: Miller drew a first- and third-round RFA tender from Oakland. As a veteran of four years, his freedom is dependant on the specifics of the next labor agreement. Miller was optimistic after long-term talks with the Raiders in early March, but he switched agents in April -- perhaps a sign that he intends to go where the money takes him should he hit the open market. Owner Al Davis is aggressive in keeping his toys, so it's a good bet that he'll top any offer Miller receives.

Prediction: Raiders

2. Kevin Boss, Giants

Scouting Report: Consistent from year-to-year but highly inconsistent from week-to-week, Boss fought through injuries to clear 500 yards again in 2010. One of the league's premier blocking tight ends when healthy, Boss' role in the passing game tends to hinge on the availability of the Giants' top receivers. He's a prime red-zone target regardless. Coming off post-season arthroscopic hip surgery, Boss was able to participate in Camp Eli in early May. He expects to be 100 percent by training camp.

Availability: Like the majority of his free agent teammates, Boss drew a second-round tender from the Giants. As a four-year veteran, his freedom hinges on labor outcome. The Giants are expected to bring him back as the starter regardless.

Prediction: Giants



3. Evan Moore, Browns

Scouting Report: The former Stanford basketball player may be designated a tight end, but he's been utilized as an over-grown wide receiver in Cleveland. Moore was split out wide on 87 percent of his 193 snaps last season -- nearly 30 percent more than the next closest tight end. A vertical seam stretcher, Moore averaged a team-best 20.1 yards per reception before hernia surgery landed him on injured reserve in December. He's fully recovered as of May.

Availability: Moore was tendered at the second-round level, an indication that the Browns still value him highly as a situational complement to Ben Watson. Moore has only been in the league three years, so his free agency will be restricted regardless of the labor outcome.

Prediction: Browns

4. Daniel Fells, Rams

Scouting Report: Don't let the career-high 41 receptions, 395 yards, and 63 percent catch rate fool you. Fells chips off the line for dump-offs, but he was targeted deep only 7.7 percent of the time. Offering little as a blocker, Fells also has subpar after-the-catch skills, and he was pushed down the depth chart every time Michael Hoomanawanui recovered from an injury. Fells is purely backup material.

Availability: Although Fells drew the original-pick tender in early March, there's now speculation that the Rams may rescind the offer after drafting Lance Kendricks in the second round. Curiously enough, Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick have both flirted with the idea of adding Fells in the past. McDaniels has since done a 180 in his valuation of tight ends, so Fells' fit in the Rams offense is dubious.

Prediction: Rams

5. Dante Rosario, Panthers

Scouting Report: Rosario can get downfield and flashes intriguing pass-catching ability, but he's never been able to beat out the pedestrian Jeff King for the starting job. Although Rosario established a career high with 32 catches last year, his per-play effectiveness fell off with Jimmy Clausen at quarterback. Rosario does contribute on special teams, so he has value as a No. 2 tight end.

Availability: A four-year veteran, Rosario drew a tender offer from the Panthers in early March -- likely of the original-pick variety. Jeff King, a five-year vet, also drew an offer. With Jeremy Shockey now on board as the presumptive starter, the Panthers may only keep one of their restricted free agents. Rosario offers more value as a pure backup to Shockey.

Prediction: Panthers

Other three- to five-year restricted running backs: Jeff King, David Thomas, Leonard Pope, Matt Spaeth, Scott Chandler, Brad Cottam, Gijon Robinson, Tom Santi

[SIZE=+2]Trade Candidates[/SIZE]

1. Martellus Bennett, Cowboys

Scouting Report: A former hoopster at Texas A&M, Bennett was widely considered the most talented tight end in the 2008 draft. The Cowboys staff spent last summer hyping John Phillips, ostensibly as a message to Bennett. Consider that message received. After Phillips tore his ACL, Bennett responded with a career-high 33 receptions while excelling as an in-line run blocker for a second straight season. He remains valuable Jason Witten insurance in Dallas.

Availability: The Cowboys missed their window to maximize Bennett's value when they turned down a "significant offer" from the Bengals at the 2009 trade deadline. Bennett is once again hearing rumors that he's on the block, but Dallas won't get fair value for their talented 24-year-old. He'll battle Phillips for the backup job behind Witten.

Prediction: Cowboys

2. Greg Olsen, Bears

Scouting Report: Olsen's snap count stayed the same under coordinator Mike Martz, but he finished just 21st in the league in tight-end targets while his receptions and yards dropped by 19 and 208 respectively. It's a credit to Olsen, though, that he managed to top 40 receptions, a feat never accomplished by a tight end under Martz. Olsen can stretch the seam with the best of the league's tight ends, as evidenced by his three-catch, 113-yard performance against Seattle in the playoffs. Though he's Jay Cutler's most reliable target in the passing game, Olsen figures to be under-utilized again in 2011.

Availability: Olsen was shopped around prior to the 2010 draft. A potential trade to New England fell through, and the Patriots ended up grabbing Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez instead. Martz and GM Jerry Angelo are both suggesting that Olsen's role will grow in the Bears offense this season. Even with agent Drew Rosenhaus seeking a "lucrative extension" for Olsen, it seems the Bears will hold on to their tight end in hopes of another playoff season.

Prediction: Bears

[SIZE=+1]Release Candidates[/SIZE] Alge Crumpler, David Martin, Jim Kleinsasser

HacheMan · Jun 1, 2011

Pre-free agency Top 200
ESPN.com

Fantasy Football Top 200 for 2011: Pre-free agency edition

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank </TH><TH>Player </TH><TH>Bye </TH><TH>Pos. Rank </TH><TH>Auction </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1 </TD><TD>Adrian Peterson, MIN </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>RB1 </TD><TD>$59 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2 </TD><TD>Arian Foster, HOU </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>RB2 </TD><TD>$57 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3 </TD><TD>Chris Johnson, TEN </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>RB3 </TD><TD>$56 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4 </TD><TD>Jamaal Charles, KC </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>RB4 </TD><TD>$53 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5 </TD><TD>Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>RB5 </TD><TD>$52 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6 </TD><TD>Ray Rice, BAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>RB6 </TD><TD>$50 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7 </TD><TD>Aaron Rodgers, GB </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>QB1 </TD><TD>$49 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8 </TD><TD>LeSean McCoy, PHI </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>RB7 </TD><TD>$48 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9 </TD><TD>Andre Johnson, HOU </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>WR1 </TD><TD>$47 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10 </TD><TD>Michael Vick, Phi </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>QB2 </TD><TD>$45 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11 </TD><TD>Roddy White, ATL </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>WR2 </TD><TD>$43 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12 </TD><TD>Rashard Mendenhall, PIT </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>RB8 </TD><TD>$43 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13 </TD><TD>Frank Gore, SF </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>RB9 </TD><TD>$41 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14 </TD><TD>Greg Jennings, GB </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>WR3 </TD><TD>$40 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>15 </TD><TD>Michael Turner, ATL </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>RB10 </TD><TD>$38 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16 </TD><TD>Drew Brees, NO </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>QB3 </TD><TD>$37 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>17 </TD><TD>Hakeem Nicks, NYG </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>WR4 </TD><TD>$35 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>18 </TD><TD>Calvin Johnson, DET </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>WR5 </TD><TD>$34 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>19 </TD><TD>Steven Jackson, STL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>RB11 </TD><TD>$32 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>20 </TD><TD>Tom Brady, NE </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>QB4 </TD><TD>$30 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>21 </TD><TD>Darren McFadden, OAK </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>RB12 </TD><TD>$28 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22 </TD><TD>Peyton Manning, Ind </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>QB5 </TD><TD>$27 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>23 </TD><TD>Mike Wallace, PIT </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>WR6 </TD><TD>$27 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>24 </TD><TD>Larry Fitzgerald, ARI </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>WR7 </TD><TD>$26 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>25 </TD><TD>Peyton Hillis, CLE </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>RB13 </TD><TD>$26 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>26 </TD><TD>Vincent Jackson, SD </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>WR8 </TD><TD>$24 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27 </TD><TD>Jonathan Stewart, CAR </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>RB14 </TD><TD>$24 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28 </TD><TD>Reggie Wayne, IND </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>WR9 </TD><TD>$23 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29 </TD><TD>Philip Rivers, SD </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>QB6 </TD><TD>$22 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30 </TD><TD>Matt Forte, CHI </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>RB15 </TD><TD>$21 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31 </TD><TD>Miles Austin, DAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>WR10 </TD><TD>$20 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32 </TD><TD>DeSean Jackson, PHI </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>WR11 </TD><TD>$19 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>33 </TD><TD>Knowshon Moreno, DEN </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>RB16 </TD><TD>$19 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>34 </TD><TD>Dez Bryant, DAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>WR12 </TD><TD>$18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>35 </TD><TD>Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>RB17 </TD><TD>$18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>36 </TD><TD>Antonio Gates, SD </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>TE1 </TD><TD>$18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>37 </TD><TD>Dwayne Bowe, KC </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>WR13 </TD><TD>$18 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>38 </TD><TD>DeAngelo Williams, CAR-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>RB18 </TD><TD>$17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>39 </TD><TD>Mike Williams, TB </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>WR14 </TD><TD>$17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>40 </TD><TD>Ryan Mathews, SD </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>RB19 </TD><TD>$17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>41 </TD><TD>Jeremy Maclin, PHI </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>WR15 </TD><TD>$17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>42 </TD><TD>Tony Romo, Dal </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>QB7 </TD><TD>$17 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>43 </TD><TD>Marques Colston, NO </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>WR16 </TD><TD>$16 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>44 </TD><TD>LeGarrette Blount, TB </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>RB20 </TD><TD>$16 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>45 </TD><TD>Jahvid Best, DET </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>RB21 </TD><TD>$16 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>46 </TD><TD>Brandon Lloyd, DEN </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>WR17 </TD><TD>$16 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>47 </TD><TD>Matt Schaub, Hou </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>QB8 </TD><TD>$15 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>48 </TD><TD>BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>RB22 </TD><TD>$15 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>49 </TD><TD>Santonio Holmes, NYJ-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>WR18 </TD><TD>$14 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>50 </TD><TD>Dallas Clark, IND </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>TE2 </TD><TD>$14 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>51 </TD><TD>Cedric Benson, CIN-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>RB23 </TD><TD>$14 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>52 </TD><TD>Steve Johnson, BUF </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>WR19 </TD><TD>$13 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>53 </TD><TD>Ben Roethlisberger, Pit </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>QB9 </TD><TD>$13 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>54 </TD><TD>Felix Jones, DAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>RB24 </TD><TD>$13 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>55 </TD><TD>Wes Welker, NE </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>WR20 </TD><TD>$12 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>56 </TD><TD>Jason Witten, DAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>TE3 </TD><TD>$12 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>57 </TD><TD>Kenny Britt, TEN </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>WR21 </TD><TD>$12 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>58 </TD><TD>Fred Jackson, BUF </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>RB25 </TD><TD>$12 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>59 </TD><TD>Mario Manningham, NYG </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>WR22 </TD><TD>$11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>60 </TD><TD>Brandon Marshall, MIA </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>WR23 </TD><TD>$11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>61 </TD><TD>Jermichael Finley, GB </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>TE4 </TD><TD>$11 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>62 </TD><TD>Shonn Greene, NYJ </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>RB26 </TD><TD>$10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>63 </TD><TD>Austin Collie, IND </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>WR24 </TD><TD>$10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>64 </TD><TD>Josh Freeman, TB </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>QB10 </TD><TD>$10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>65 </TD><TD>Mark Ingram, NO </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>RB27 </TD><TD>$10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>66 </TD><TD>Sidney Rice, MIN-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>WR25 </TD><TD>$10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>67 </TD><TD>Daniel Thomas, MIA </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>RB28 </TD><TD>$10 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>68 </TD><TD>Percy Harvin, MIN </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>WR26 </TD><TD>$9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>69 </TD><TD>Vernon Davis, SF </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>TE5 </TD><TD>$9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>70 </TD><TD>Ryan Grant, GB </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>RB29 </TD><TD>$9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>71 </TD><TD>Michael Crabtree, SF </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>WR27 </TD><TD>$9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>72 </TD><TD>James Starks, GB </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>RB30 </TD><TD>$9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>73 </TD><TD>Matt Ryan, Atl </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>QB11 </TD><TD>$8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>74 </TD><TD>Anquan Boldin, BAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>WR28 </TD><TD>$8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>75 </TD><TD>Marshawn Lynch, SEA </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>RB31 </TD><TD>$8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>76 </TD><TD>Pierre Thomas, NO </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>RB32 </TD><TD>$8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>77 </TD><TD>Jordy Nelson, GB </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>WR29 </TD><TD>$8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>78 </TD><TD>Mikel Leshoure, DET </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>RB33 </TD><TD>$8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>79 </TD><TD>Eli Manning, NYG </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>QB12 </TD><TD>$8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>80 </TD><TD>Johnny Knox, CHI </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>WR30 </TD><TD>$7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>81 </TD><TD>Ryan Williams, ARI </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>RB34 </TD><TD>$7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>82 </TD><TD>Pierre Garcon, IND </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>WR31 </TD><TD>$7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>83 </TD><TD>Joseph Addai, IND-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>RB35 </TD><TD>$7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>84 </TD><TD>Santana Moss, WAS-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>WR32 </TD><TD>$7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>85 </TD><TD>Braylon Edwards, NYJ-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>WR33 </TD><TD>$7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>86 </TD><TD>Joe Flacco, Bal </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>QB13 </TD><TD>$6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>87 </TD><TD>Owen Daniels, HOU </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>TE6 </TD><TD>$6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>88 </TD><TD>Ryan Torain, WAS </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>RB36 </TD><TD>$6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>89 </TD><TD>Steve Smith, CAR </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>WR34 </TD><TD>$6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>90 </TD><TD>Mike Tolbert, SD </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>RB37 </TD><TD>$6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>91 </TD><TD>A.J. Green, CIN </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>WR35 </TD><TD>$6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>92 </TD><TD>C.J. Spiller, BUF </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>RB38 </TD><TD>$6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>93 </TD><TD>Zach Miller, OAK-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>TE7 </TD><TD>$5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>94 </TD><TD>Randy Moss, TEN-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>WR36 </TD><TD>$5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>95 </TD><TD>Michael Bush, OAK-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>RB39 </TD><TD>$5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>96 </TD><TD>Malcom Floyd, SD-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>WR37 </TD><TD>$5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>97 </TD><TD>Brandon Jacobs, NYG </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>RB40 </TD><TD>$5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>98 </TD><TD>Mike Williams, SEA </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>WR38 </TD><TD>$4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>99 </TD><TD>Matt Cassel, KC </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>QB16 </TD><TD>$4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>100 </TD><TD>Beanie Wells, ARI </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>RB41 </TD><TD>$4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>101 </TD><TD>Matthew Stafford, Det </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>QB17 </TD><TD>$4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>102 </TD><TD>LaDainian Tomlinson, NYJ </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>RB42 </TD><TD>$4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>103 </TD><TD>Mike Thomas, JAC </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>WR39 </TD><TD>$4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>104 </TD><TD>Sam Bradford, StL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>QB14 </TD><TD>$4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>105 </TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis, JAC </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>TE8 </TD><TD>$3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>106 </TD><TD>Terrell Owens, CIN-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>WR40 </TD><TD>$3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>107 </TD><TD>Tim Tebow, Den </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>QB18 </TD><TD>$3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>108 </TD><TD>Kellen Winslow, TB </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>TE9 </TD><TD>$3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>109 </TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>DST1 </TD><TD>$3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>110 </TD><TD>Jay Cutler, Chi </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>QB15 </TD><TD>$3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>111 </TD><TD>Roy Helu, WAS </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>RB43 </TD><TD>$3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>112 </TD><TD>Deion Branch, NE </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>WR41 </TD><TD>$3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>113 </TD><TD>Lance Moore, NO-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>WR42 </TD><TD>$3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>114 </TD><TD>Green Bay Packers, GB </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>DST2 </TD><TD>$3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>115 </TD><TD>Chris Cooley, WAS </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>TE10 </TD><TD>$3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>116 </TD><TD>Mike Goodson, CAR </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>RB44 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>117 </TD><TD>Robert Meachem, NO </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>WR43 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>118 </TD><TD>Leonard Hankerson, WAS </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>WR44 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>119 </TD><TD>Ronnie Brown, MIA-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>RB45 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>120 </TD><TD>Julio Jones, ATL </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>WR45 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>121 </TD><TD>Montario Hardesty, CLE </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>RB46 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>122 </TD><TD>Mark Sanchez, NYJ </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>QB19 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>123 </TD><TD>Jimmy Graham, NO </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>TE11 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>124 </TD><TD>New York Jets, NYJ </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>DST3 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>125 </TD><TD>James Jones, GB-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>WR46 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>126 </TD><TD>David Garrard, Jac </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>QB20 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>127 </TD><TD>Thomas Jones, KC </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>RB47 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>128 </TD><TD>Derrick Mason, BAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>WR47 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>129 </TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens, BAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>DST4 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>130 </TD><TD>Kevin Kolb, Phi </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>QB21 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>131 </TD><TD>Jerome Simpson, CIN </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>WR48 </TD><TD>$2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>132 </TD><TD>Brandon Pettigrew, DET </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>TE12 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>133 </TD><TD>Chad Ochocinco, CIN? </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>WR49 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>134 </TD><TD>Rob Gronkowski, NE </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>TE13 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>135 </TD><TD>Hines Ward, PIT </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>WR50 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>136 </TD><TD>Jason Campbell, Oak </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>QB22 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>137 </TD><TD>Donovan McNabb, Was </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>QB23 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>138 </TD><TD>Vince Young, Ten </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>QB24 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>139 </TD><TD>Davone Bess, MIA </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>WR51 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>140 </TD><TD>Tony Gonzalez, ATL </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>TE14 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>141 </TD><TD>Danny Woodhead, NE </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>RB48 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>142 </TD><TD>Chicago Bears, CHI </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>DST5 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>143 </TD><TD>Rashad Jennings, JAC </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>RB49 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>144 </TD><TD>Emmanuel Sanders, PIT </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>WR52 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>145 </TD><TD>Chris Ivory, NO </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>RB50 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>146 </TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons, ATL </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>DST6 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>147 </TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles, PHI </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>DST7 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>148 </TD><TD>New England Patriots, NE </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>DST9 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>149 </TD><TD>Nate Kaeding, SD </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>K1 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>150 </TD><TD>San Diego Chargers, SD </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>DST10 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>151 </TD><TD>Neil Rackers, HOU </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>K2 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>152 </TD><TD>Josh Brown, STL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>K3 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>153 </TD><TD>New Orleans Saints, NO </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>DST8 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>154 </TD><TD>Rob Bironas, TEN </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>K4 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>155 </TD><TD>Stephen Gostkowski, NE </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>K5 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>156 </TD><TD>Garrett Hartley, NO </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>K6 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>157 </TD><TD>David Akers, PHI </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>K7 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>158 </TD><TD>Billy Cundiff, BAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>K8 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>159 </TD><TD>Mason Crosby, GB-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>K9 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>160 </TD><TD>Matt Prater, DEN-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>K10 </TD><TD>$1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>161 </TD><TD>Reggie Bush, NO </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>RB51 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>162 </TD><TD>Dustin Keller, NYJ </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>TE15 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>163 </TD><TD>Ben Tate, HOU </TD><TD>11 </TD><TD>RB52 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>164 </TD><TD>Anthony Armstrong, WAS </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>WR53 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>165 </TD><TD>Ricky Williams, MIA-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>RB53 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>166 </TD><TD>Jacoby Ford, OAK </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>WR54 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>167 </TD><TD>Tony Moeaki, KC </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>TE16 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>168 </TD><TD>Tashard Choice, DAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>RB54 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>169 </TD><TD>Anthony Dixon, SF </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>RB55 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>170 </TD><TD>DeMarco Murray, DAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>RB56 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>171 </TD><TD>Darren Sproles, SD-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>RB57 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>172 </TD><TD>Mike Sims-Walker, JAC-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>WR55 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>173 </TD><TD>Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buf </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>QB25 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>174 </TD><TD>Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>WR56 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>175 </TD><TD>Plaxico Burress, FA </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>WR57 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>176 </TD><TD>Kendall Hunter, SF </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>RB58 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>177 </TD><TD>Shane Vereen, NE </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>RB59 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>178 </TD><TD>New York Giants, NYG </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>DST11 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>179 </TD><TD>Jordan Todman, SD </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>RB60 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>180 </TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs, KC </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>DST12 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>181 </TD><TD>Jared Cook, TEN </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>TE17 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>182 </TD><TD>Tim Hightower, ARI </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>RB61 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>183 </TD><TD>Jason Snelling, ATL-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>RB62 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>184 </TD><TD>Bernard Scott, CIN </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>RB63 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>185 </TD><TD>Roy Williams, DAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>WR58 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>186 </TD><TD>Donald Driver, GB </TD><TD>8 </TD><TD>WR59 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>187 </TD><TD>Ben Watson, CLE </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>TE18 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>188 </TD><TD>Toby Gerhart, MIN </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>RB64 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>189 </TD><TD>Nick Folk, NYJ-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>K11 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>190 </TD><TD>Adam Vinatieri, IND-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>K12 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>191 </TD><TD>Lee Evans, BUF </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>WR60 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>192 </TD><TD>Marion Barber, DAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>RB65 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>193 </TD><TD>Jonathan Baldwin, KC </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>WR61 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>194 </TD><TD>Jacoby Jones, HOU-fa </TD><TD>TBD </TD><TD>WR62 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>195 </TD><TD>Aaron Hernandez, NE </TD><TD>7 </TD><TD>TE19 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>196 </TD><TD>Nate Burleson, DET </TD><TD>9 </TD><TD>WR63 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>197 </TD><TD>Willis McGahee, BAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>RB66 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>198 </TD><TD>Todd Heap, BAL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>TE20 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>199 </TD><TD>Kyle Orton, Den </TD><TD>6 </TD><TD>QB26 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>200 </TD><TD>Danario Alexander, STL </TD><TD>5 </TD><TD>WR64 </TD><TD>$0 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Rankings based on 10-team ESPN standard league with 16-player rosters, starting one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one running back/wide receiver, a tight end, a team defense and a kicker. Auction values assume same league format with a $200 budget.

HacheMan · Jun 1, 2011

2011 Draft: Impact Rookies
One of the strangest offseasons in NFL history has prohibited us from doing what we do best -- projecting how players in new roles will fare. But at long last, an oasis came to us in the form of the draft.

Last year's rookie class produced high expectations in the form of guys like Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best, C.J. Spiller and Dez Bryant. This year's class does not project to generate nearly as much hype from a fantasy perspective. Out of all the running backs taken last week, only Miami's Daniel Thomas appears to have a wide open path to a full-time gig.

Still, diamonds in the rough will certainly emerge. For example, we pegged Mike Williams (TB) as a quality flier last August and it paid off handsomely.

In order to generate these rankings, we took a composite ranking of four lists (Evan Silva, Chris Wesseling, Gregg Rosenthal, Adam Levitan). Remember that these are for the 2011 season only -- Wesseling covered the Dynasty outlook of the rookies here.

1. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins
The Dolphins gave up three draft picks to land Thomas, so the odds of free agents Ricky Williams and/or Ronnie Brown coming back are remote. While GM Jeff Ireland has said he wants to add a "scat back," no one is going to threaten the 230-pound Thomas on early downs. We wouldn't rule out 250 carries as a rookie.

2. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
It's crowded right now in coach Sean Payton's situational backfield, but Ingram is a good bet to rise to the top. Pierre Thomas can never stay healthy and is coming off ankle surgery. Reggie Bush's massive salary is expected to be dumped. And Chris Ivory is a former undrafted free agent coming off a major foot injury. On top of all that, the Saints gave up their 2011 second-round pick and 2012 first-rounder to snag Ingram, the 2009 Heisman Trophy winner.

3. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
We don't know who will be quarterbacking the Bengals, but we can safely pencil in Green opposite Jerome Simpson with Jordan Shipley in the slot. Green may very well be the best pure offensive player in this year's rookie class, projecting as a difference-making deep threat right out of the gate. He should lead the Bengals in targets as a rookie.

4. Roy Helu, RB, Redskins
We have all seen what coach Mike Shanahan can do with relatively unknown running backs. Helu, a favorite sleeper of draft experts like Evan Silva, fits perfectly as a one-cut, downhill runner in Washington's zone-blocking scheme. We like him to beat out injury-prone Ryan Torain to win the starting job sooner rather than later.

5. Greg Little, WR, Browns
Off-field woes are the main reason Little continues to fly under the radar. But at 6'2/231 with running back skills after the catch, he immediately steps in as the Browns' most talented receiver. On a roster devoid of playmakers, the Browns will rightfully feel the need to get the ball in Little's hands often.

6. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons
Atlanta gave up the farm to move up for Jones. By surrendering their 2011 and 2012 first-round picks, 2011 and 2012 fourth-round picks and 2011 second-round pick, they are telling us that Jones will have a major offensive role right out of the gate. The only problem is that Atlanta's first option remains the running game and the second option is Roddy White.

7. Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals
Due to injuries, inconsistency and fumbles, Beanie Wells has disappointed more than he's shined. The Cardinals say they aren't sending a message to Beanie, but using the No. 38 pick on Williams when you have holes all over the field speaks volumes. Williams is a plus receiver out of the backfield and will immediately threaten the workloads of both Wells and Tim Hightower.

8. Mikel Leshoure, RB, Lions
We knew durability would be an issue with Jahvid Best as soon as he was drafted. And after an injury-plagued rookie campaign, Leshoure is certain to have a major role. At 6'0/227, the second-round pick will be the 2011 goal-line back. And with the Lions' offense looking explosive, Leshoure is a good bet to have plenty of scoring opportunities.

9. Leonard Hankerson, WR, Redskins
The cupboard is bare at all the Redskins' skill positions, including wide receiver. Santana Moss is a free agent, leaving deep threat Anthony Armstrong and disappointing Malcolm Kelly atop the depth chart. Hankerson, who broke Michael Irvin's single-season touchdown catches record at Miami, has the look of a No. 1 receiver. His upside will have a lot to do with who ends up quarterbacking the Redskins.

10. Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Chiefs
The Chiefs were absolutely desperate for a No. 2 receiver after using street free agents and practice squad talent at the position last year. Enter Baldwin, who has the look of a premier red-zone threat at 6'4/228. Still, the Chiefs led the NFL in rushing attempts last year at 34.8 per game and will likely be around that number again. As the No. 2 receiver, Baldwin's upside is limited.

11. Delone Carter, RB, Colts
It's a little odd that the pass-first Colts drafted a running back with limited receiving skills, but they were desperate for short-yardage help. Carter, who is built like a bowling ball, can certainly help there. However, don't expect the Colts to let free agent Joseph Addai walk because Carter is in the mix. The rookie figures to be used in a very specific role.

12. Shane Vereen, RB, Patriots
Chris Wesseling ranked Vereen 7th on his list, six spots higher than anyone else. "I think he's immediately the best running back in New England. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is basically a kill the clock/take the air out of the ball back, which the Patriots got to do a ton in the second half last year. Not sure they can count on that again." Vereen fits nicely in New England, but the amount of reps in this crowded backfield will be a major obstacle.

13. DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys
The Cowboys couldn't pass on the impressive measurables Murray has, but effectiveness is another story. He averaged just 4.24 yards per carry in his final two seasons at Oklahoma and proved to be extremely injury prone. Talk that he'll beat out Felix Jones for the feature back job is a stretch -- even taking Tashard Choice's backup gig won't come easy.

14. Titus Young, WR, Lions
The smallish Young fits perfectly as a deep threat, third receiver and kick returner for the Lions. Detroit certainly runs enough three-wide sets for Young to be on the radar, but he'll have to earn his way up the totem pole. Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Jahvid Best and Brandon Pettigrew all need their mouths fed in the passing game.

15. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons
Jerious Norwood was never able to fill the scat back job, so the tiny Rodgers is going to get a chance. But at 5'6/196, Rodgers is going to struggle badly in pass protection. If he can't beat out Jason Snelling for third-down reps, there isn't going to be much to see here in fantasy.

16. Cam Newton, QB, Panthers
Gregg Rosenthal ranked the No. 1 overall pick 8th on his list, 10 spots ahead of anyone else. "I think Newton will start sooner than later and has the skill set to be a decent QB2 with a ceiling like Vince Young's rookie year. That's better than most of these backup running backs and shaky wide receivers." The fact that Newton ran for 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns at Auburn last season is intriguing.

17. Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens
With slow, declining veterans Anquan Boldin and Derrick Mason atop the depth chart, the Ravens badly needed a deep threat for Joe Flacco's big arm. Smith can get vertical right away at the NFL level, but the main concern here is targets. Smith will likely need an injury to Boldin or Mason to truly be relevant.

18. Vincent Brown, WR, Chargers
The Chargers are tentatively expected to bring back both Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd. Therefore Brown, a possession receiver, is more appetizing as a keeper prospect than re-draft. Nevertheless, anyone on a Philip Rivers quarterbacked team bears watching. Rivers led the NFL last year in passing yards and yards per attempt.

19. Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers
Hunter will start off as a change-of-pace back behind workhorse Frank Gore, but may be more talented than Anthony Dixon. If Gore were to go down, Hunter projects as the man to own based on his all-around game. He has plus receiving and pass protection skills. Brian Westbrook is gone.

20. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots
Ridley is a bruiser that is an immediate threat to BenJarvus Green-Ellis' early-down role. He's also part of a four-headed monster at running back and will therefore be used situationally. Likely to enter the season fourth on the depth chart, Ridley is hard to get excited about.

ALSO RECEIVING VOTES
21. Alex Green, RB, Packers
22. Christian Ponder, QB, Vikings
23. Edmond Gates, WR, Dolphins
24. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers
25. Taiwan Jones, RB, Raiders
26. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings
27. Lance Kendricks, TE, Rams
28. Kris Durham, WR, Seahawks
29. Greg Salas, WR, Rams

HacheMan · Jun 2, 2011

Draft Fallout: Dynasty Losers
This year is harder than ever to hand down rulings on the draft's winners and losers because so many players remain in limbo. With trades and free agency signings still to come, Dynasty values will continue to fluctuate based on the changing landscape. That said, here are the biggest Dynasty losers of the 2011 draft:

1. Beanie Wells / Tim Hightower - The Cardinals pulled the trigger on Ryan Williams at No. 38 overall for two primary reasons: 1. He was the best player on their board. 2. The coaching staff no longer trusted Wells and Hightower to stay healthy and productive. Hightower, never more than a flex fantasy option, fumbled away his opportunity while bringing up the rear in Pro Football Focus' running back ratings last season. After closing out his rookie year as one of the most promising young backs in the league, Wells suffered through a disastrous injury-plagued 2010 season. It's worth noting that Wells has not been on the field for even a third of the offensive snaps in either season, a sure sign that his coaching staff lacks confidence in his pass protection, ball security, and ability (willingness?) to play effectively through pain. On the other hand, Wells is arguably a stronger runner than Williams when healthy, and one season marred by a meniscus injury isn't reason enough to write off a promising talent. It's not a bad idea to approach the Beanie owner in your league, seeking a bargain-basement deal for a potential starter.

2. Roddy White - It's no secret that wide receiver fantasy success directly corresponds to consistently high target numbers, but White is an extreme case. A true volume receiver, White has racked up 18 more targets than any other NFL wideout over the past two seasons. While he earns plenty of credit for an ability to get open against stacked coverage, White has been force-fed the ball with no semblance of a threat on the opposite side. His counting stats have gone up, but only at the expense of his per-play effectiveness. Enter Julio Jones, hand-picked to draw attention -- and valuable targets -- away from Matt Ryan's go-to receiver. White is entering his age-30 season, which means the downslope is coming soon for a player who isn't quite Hall of Fame caliber. Within 2-3 years, I expect Jones to be outproducing White as Ryan's top target.

3. Pierre Thomas / Chris Ivory - The writing was on the wall for Thomas when he inked a backup's contract in early March. What we didn't know then was that the Saints would bypass another role player in the backfield to target a workmanlike, chain-moving offensive foundation like Ingram. The Saints didn't surrender a second-rounder and next year's first-round pick to turn Ingram into a mix-and-match situational back. Ingram is expected to take over feature-back duties immediately, leaving the roles of Thomas and Ivory up in the air. After missing time with knee, head, shoulder, hamstring, and Lisfranc injuries as a rookie, Ivory can't be counted on as more than a backup going forward.

4. Felix Jones / Tashard Choice - The Cowboys didn't draft Jones with the intention of turning him into a feature back, so it came as no surprise when his explosiveness disappeared under the weight of increased carries last year. With Marion Barber on the chopping block, DeMarco Murray was picked up in the third-round to help shoulder Jones' workload. Rather than a RB2 with difference-making upside, Jones will remain a RB3/flex with RB2 upside. For whatever reason, Choice fell out of favor with the coaching staff last season. One beat writer even suggests the productive backup could be on the roster bubble this summer. I'd advising holding in Dynasty leagues. Jones and Murray are both injury risks, and Choice could excel in another locale if traded.

5. Jahvid Best - A second-round power-back complement was far from ideal, but the sky isn't exactly falling on Best's long-term value. Coach Jim Schwartz plans to use Best in the Chris Johnson "get the lead" role with Leshoure as the LenDale White "keep the lead" hammer in the four-minute drill. As long as the Lions folllow the Titans' 2008 script, Best's touches should see very little standard deviation while Leshoure's carries will be directly tied to situation and game momentum. The homerun hitting Best that we saw pre-turf toe injury last season was reminiscent of Brian Westbrook -- too talented to keep off the field for long stretches. He'll lose goal-line opportunities, but fewer between-the-tackles carries will help keep Best out of the trainers' room going forward.

6. Jerome Simpson The late-season breakout star rightfully entered the offseason as a fantasy sleeper, but the landscape in Cincinnati has changed markedly in the past few months. Simpson could have not only a new coordinator planning a run-heavy offense, but also a new QB as well as competition for the No. 1 receiver role that enabled him to first in receptions (18) and fourth in targets (21) over the final two weeks of the season. First-rounder A.J. Green was NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell's top player in the draft, with the talent to leapfrog Simpson as the Bengals' top receiver. Without that high volume of targets, Simpson's sleeper status is on the ropes.

7. David Garrard - Garrard is coming off a season in which he threw for a career-high 23 touchdowns and completed a career-high 64.5 percent of his passes while mirroring Drew Brees and Matt Ryan in passer rating. The performance hid an inconsistency that saw Garrard nearly yanked multiple times by October. After noting for a second straight offseason that Garrard is not an elite QB, the Jags traded up to land his replacement in Blaine Gabbert. While it would be a major upset if Gabbert, an early-entry candidate from a spread offense, starts in Week 1, Garrard's leash will be short. It's not inconceivable that the cash-strapped franchise will release Garrard and his $8 million salary by the end of summer.

8. BenJarvus Green-Ellis - Smart Dynasty owners realized 2010 was the perfect storm for the Law Firm, selling high at the end of the season on a back with mediocre talent and little staying power. The 2008 undrafted free agent is deserving of respect for making 2006 first-rounder Laurence Maroney expendable, but his fantasy output on just 40 percent of the offensive snaps was mostly attributable to the Patriots playing with a commanding lead from October through December. Green-Ellis' workload has nowhere to go but down after the selections of well-rounded Shane Vereen and power back Stevan Ridley.



9. Ryan Grant / James Starks - Third-rounder Alex Green is billed as Brandon Jackson's immediate replacement, but NFL teams aren't generally in the habit of expending second-day picks on third-down specialists. Green is an explosive downhill runner with feature-back size and elusiveness, which bodes poorly for Grant's chances of sticking in Green Bay beyond 2011 -- the final year of his contract. Green is good enough to force a two-back committee attack with Starks in 2012.

10. Joseph Addai / Donald Brown - Addai's Indy future is wrapped up in the labor outcome, which will determine whether his free agency is restricted or unrestricted. A good portion of his fantasy value has come at the goal-line, which is a problem with hard-charging fourth-rounder Delone Carter lurking as a short-yardage vulture. Even if Addai leaves, it's hard to like Brown's chances of filling the void. After failing to seize a prime opportunity with Addai sidelined throughout the second half of the season, the brittle 2009 first-rounder didn't see a single snap in the Colts' playoff loss to the Jets. A tentative line dancer of Laurence Maroney proportions, Brown has the look of a "one-and-done" contract for the Colts.

11. Visanthe Shiancoe Age (31) and the loss of Brett Favre, who used Shiancoe as a red-zone security blanket, were already concerns. Shiancoe had plummeted to low-end TE2 status by the end of the season. Now he has to hold off a more talented Kyle Rudolph for looks down the seam. Shiancoe is no longer worthy of a spot in a standard 12-team league with 25-deep rosters.

12. Mohamed Massaquoi - Coach Pat Shurmur is already projecting Greg Little as his No. 1 receiver while team president Mike Holmgren envisions the second-rounder fulfilling the "homerun hitting" need in the Browns offense. Those expectations leave Massaquoi as a secondary long-term option in the passing game. I'd list Brian Robiskie here, too, if I believed he ever possessed even an ounce of fantasy potential.

13. Jimmy Clausen / Joe Webb - Both 2010 draft picks closed out the season as the starter, only to see their teams address the position with first-round picks in April. In 13 games as the NFL's lowest-rated passer, Clausen gave no reason to believe he can be a viable NFL starter. His biggest fan has been Panthers GM Marty Hurney, so don't expect other teams to beat down the door for a trade. Webb remains a long-term developmental project without a realistic shot to beat out Christian Ponder.

14. Anthony Dixon - Considered a possible successor to Frank Gore at this time last year, Dixon finished his rookie season with a disappointing 3.4 yards per carry and 2.2 yards per reception. The Niners have made it clear that they envision fourth-rounder Kendall Hunter as more than just a change-of-pace back, and the poor man's Ray Rice is more talented than Dixon. I wouldn't hold a roster spot for Dixon in 12-team leagues.

15. Donnie Avery / Brandon Gibson / Mardy Gilyard / Laurent Robinson - Mark Clayton is expected to be re-signed, Danny Amendola figures to remain in the slot after racking up 85 receptions last season, and talented deep threat Danario Alexander is safe as long as his knee checks out. The Rams aren't going to want to lose third- and fourth-rounders Austin Pettis and Greg Salas, which leaves Gibson, Gilyard, and Robinson on the outs. Returning from a torn ACL, Avery will have to excel in preseason action to earn a major role.

Bonus: David Akers - The goat of the Wild Card round loss balked at the transition tag, so the Eagles responded by drafting his replacement in fourth-rounder Alex Henery. Akers will land a kicking job elsewhere, but he's leaving a gig that saw him finish in the top-six in the NFL in both field-goal attempts and extra-point attempts in each of the past three seasons.

[SIZE=+2]Draft Pergutory:[/SIZE] Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith (CAR), Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Torain, Brandon Tate / Taylor Price, Ronnie Brown / Ricky Williams

Obstinate Bengals owner/GM Mike Brown maintains that Palmer will not be traded after drafting his replacement in Andy Dalton. … Fitzgerald will be catching passes from Kevin Kolb or Kyle Orton as opposed to John Skelton or Max Hall. … Hurt by his QB situation more than any other receiver over the past four years, Smith is line for a monster comeback season if he lands in a greener pasture -- as expected. … The Broncos are expected to add a back to complement Moreno. … Torain has competition in fourth-rounder Roy Helu and sixth-rounder Evan Royster, but it could have been worse. The 'Skins may not be done adding to the backfield mix, either. … The Pats opted against drafting a wide receiver, but a veteran could be brought in via free agency or trade. … Brown and Williams remain unlikely to return to Miami.

HacheMan · Jun 5, 2011

The 2011 Defense Market
When we started our positional market analysis on May 10, it appeared possible, maybe even likely, that the 2011 NFL season would be played under a lockout injunction and 2010 rules. A new Collective Bargaining Agreement has become much more probable over the past month.

Five-year free agents are likely to be unrestricted, and four-year UFA/RFAs probably will be too. If so, it's going to be the easily the best free agent crop we have ever seen. Teams were wary of extending players all last year, so expiring contracts have almost become the norm. Expect a wild few weeks when free agency kicks off.

[SIZE=+1]Surefire Free Agent Defenders[/SIZE]

1. Nnamdi Asomugha, cornerback

Scouting Report: Though rarely allowed to "shadow" No. 1 receivers in Oakland, Asomugha has earned a reputation as a shutdown cornerback for his man-to-man cover skills. The Raiders used him at right corner, where Asomugha dealt with split end-type, vertical receivers like Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, and Brandon Lloyd. Johnson, the best wideout in the game, has been held to stat lines of 2/66/0, 2/19/0, and 1/9/0 in his career against Asomugha. For the most part, offenses have simply refused to throw at Asomugha's RCB position over the past several seasons. He has not exceeded 40 tackles or one interception in any of the last four years.

Availability: Asomugha's contract, originally worth $45.3 million over three years, voided at season's end because he failed to meet certain statistical barriers. (Because no one throws at him.) Asomugha belongs in a system that allows corners to play press-man coverage rather than zone. His highest degree of interest when free agency begins is expected to come from the NFC East. Signing Asomugha could be the move that puts Philadelphia over the top.

Prediction: Eagles on a five-year, $72 million contract.

2. Aubrayo Franklin, defensive tackle

Scouting Report: Built low to the ground at 6-foot-1, 320 with a thunderously thick lower body, Franklin is the quintessential 3-4 nose tackle. He offers nothing in the way of pass rush, but has mastered the art of "two-gapping" as a double team-commanding interior presence. The 49ers have fielded a top-six run defense in each of the past two years, and their paltry 3.55 yards-per-carry average allowed during that span is largely attributable to Franklin's dirty work in front of Patrick Willis. Immovable, athletic specimen like Franklin are tremendously difficult to find.

Availability: After Franklin held out of 2010 camp due to dissatisfaction with the franchise tag, the new 49ers brass opted against tagging him for a second straight year. This is what Franklin has wanted all along -- freedom to test his wares on the open market -- so it's a safe bet that he'll take the best offer available. Franklin turns 31 before the season, and there's buyer-beware risk here. As for a contract, Casey Hampton's 2010 deal will be the starting point.

Prediction: Redskins on a four-year, $32 million contract.

3. Matt Roth, defensive end/outside linebacker

Scouting Report: Roth has never been a big sack guy -- his career high is 5.0 in 2008 -- but he plays with a relentless motor and is a highly physical run defender. Pro Football Focus has rated Roth as a top-seven run-stopping outside linebacker in each of the past two seasons. At 6-foot-4, 275, however, Roth's best NFL position would be left defensive end in a 4-3 scheme. He played defensive end early in his career under Nick Saban with the Dolphins.

Availability: The 46th pick in the '05 draft, Roth is a six-year unrestricted free agent regardless of CBA rules. He'll look to max out on the open market at age 28. Roth has shown impressive versatility for a front seven defender, which will appeal to teams like the Jets, Patriots, and Ravens. It also makes sense for the Browns to keep him as Jabaal Sheard's bookend. Bill Belichick can get an in-depth Roth scouting report from Saban, his former defensive coordinator.

Prediction: Patriots on a five-year, $29 million contract.

4. Cullen Jenkins, defensive lineman

Scouting Report: A late bloomer and former undrafted free agent, Jenkins did a stint in NFL Europe before landing a spot on Green Bay's roster in 2005. The team's starting right end since overtaking Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, Jenkins has shown a complete game when healthy. But that's the rub. Jenkins has missed 17 games over the past three seasons, last year battling a fractured hand and torn calf, and in 2009 going on I.R. with a torn pectoral. Jenkins is 6-foot-2, 305, so the eyeball test says he'd be better suited for an interior position outside of Green Bay.

Availability: The Packers didn't use the franchise tag, and Mike McCarthy spoke of Jenkins in the past tense at his year-ending press conference. "I really enjoyed coaching Cullen," the coach said in February. Speculation has linked Jenkins to the Bears, Redskins, and Broncos. He can project to a variety of positions in all schemes, so there should be no shortage of suitors.

Prediction: Seahawks on a four-year, $22.5 million contract.



5. Ike Taylor, cornerback

Scouting Report: Taylor has never been to a Pro Bowl or intercepted more than three passes in a season, so he's rarely talked about among the league's elite. He's also 31 years old. Taylor offers rare size (6'2/195) at the position and gives big receivers fits with physical play at the line of scrimmage. He's also a top-notch tackling corner with experience in both man and zone coverage, depending on Dick LeBeau's play call. Though not a true shutdown corner, Taylor is well rounded and exceptionally durable. He's played in 107 straight games, including playoffs.

Availability: Pittsburgh writers consider him a lock to re-sign, but a Profootballtalk report and recent comments from the player strongly indicate that Taylor would prefer to test the market. "I need that market value," Taylor said on May 18. "I feel so unappreciated, so underrated at my position. I feel like it's time to get my worth, in whatever city that's in." It will probably come from a team that falls short in the Asomugha bidding. Skins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett's scheme is an offshoot of LeBeau's, and Washington is expected to be aggressive in free agency.

Prediction: Redskins on a four-year, $30 million contract.

6. Jason Babin, defensive end

Scouting Report: Babin was the 27th overall pick in the 2004 draft, but he didn't meet expectations until his fifth team in the NFL. Sitting on a career high of 5.0 sacks entering 2010, Babin busted loose for 12.5 in his first season with the Titans. Babin is a speed rusher at 6-foot-3, 260, and benefited from lining up wide of the formation in now-former Tennessee line coach Jim Washburn's scheme. Babin has been tried as an outside linebacker in 3-4 defenses before, but those experiments failed. He's a pure hand-in-the-dirt edge rusher best utilized in a wave rotation.

Availability: Under new line coach Tracy Rocker, the Titans want to get bigger in the front four. The team's new philosophy means Babin will only be viewed as a situational pass rusher in Nashville. Babin will likely try to parlay the big year into the best contract he can get. Because of his age and spotty track record, teams will and should be wary of overpaying Babin.

Prediction: Lions on a three-year, $14.5 million contract.

7. Quintin Mikell, safety

Scouting Report: Annually among the NFL's top tackling defensive backs, Mikell also quietly earned high marks in coverage as the Eagles' strong safety. Pro Football Focus has rated Mikell as a top-eight cover safety in each of the last three seasons, and he was No. 1 in the league last year. Mikell has created 16 turnovers during that span and missed just one game. He turns 31 in September, however, and Philadelphia's blitz-happy front seven tends to make safeties look better than they are. And it may be telling that the Eagles have already moved on from Mikell.

Availability: Mikell won't be back in Philly after the team drafted Jaiquawn Jarrett with the 54th pick. Coaches on the Eagles' staff while Mikell was there include Ron Rivera, Steve Spagnuolo, John Harbaugh, and Pat Shurmur. At least three of those have needs at strong safety on their current rosters, and Mikell will be appealing because of his familiarity and effectiveness.

Prediction: Rams on a four-year, $20.8 million contract.

8. Barrett Ruud, linebacker

Scouting Report: Incredibly productive, Ruud has ranked fourth, second, and 18th in the league in tackles over the past three seasons. Unfortunately, Ruud's tackle numbers don't translate to stout defense, as the Bucs have ranked 19th, 32nd, and 28th against the run. Ruud is a gifted athlete with sideline-to-sideline range, but the majority of his tackles occur downfield. He is a three-down linebacker with cover skills. It's possible that Ruud's best position would be on the weak side, where he could worry less about run plugging and just let his athleticism take over.

Availability: Ruud, 28, is an unrestricted free agent and available to the highest bidder. While Raheem Morris has toed the company line by saying the Bucs want Ruud back, the team's actions speak louder than their words; they drafted middle linebacker of the future Mason Foster with the 84th overall pick. Ruud is likely to land elsewhere, and the Jaguars make sense as a linebacker-needy team that could use a reliable young tackler in the middle or on the weak side.

Prediction: Jaguars on a five-year, $34 million contract.



9. Carlos Rogers, cornerback

Scouting Report: Ask any Redskins fan about Rogers, and the first thing out of their mouth will concern dropped interceptions. Rogers has hands of stone, and as a cover corner he's been highly inconsistent. His next team's primary task will be getting Rogers to play to his potential. With an exceptional size-speed combination (6'0/192, 4.44 forty), Rogers has the skill set every defensive backs coach in the league covets. Former Skins secondary boss Jerry Gray got it out of him in spurts, but ultimately the former top-ten pick has been a disappointment.

Availability: Rogers was relatively old coming out of Auburn in 2005 and turns 30 next month. In other words, this isn't quite an ascending young player. The Gray connection could make sense in Tennessee, where he is now defensive coordinator. Ultimately, the most likely team to sign Rogers will be a runner-up in the Asomugha sweepstakes. Rogers needs to go to a club that utilizes man coverage in the secondary, and Dallas fits the bill under new DC Rob Ryan.

Prediction: Cowboys on a four-year, $27.5 million contract.

10. Justin Durant, linebacker

Scouting Report: A poor man's Jon Beason with even better speed, Durant is a thumping 4-3 linebacker with a 4.51 forty time at 6-foot-1, 232. Pro Football Focus rated Durant the second best run-stopping outside linebacker in football last season, and he is only 25 years old. Durant fell out of favor in Jacksonville due to an alcohol-related arrest in 2007 and proneness to injury; the former second-round pick has missed at least two games in each of his first four years including six in 2010. He has experience as a starter at both middle and weak-side 'backer.

Availability: The Jags have cut ties with Durant and Mike Sims-Walker, failing to extend either a restricted free agent tender. He'll be unrestricted once the lockout ends. Current Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams held the same position in Jacksonville in 2008, and could use outside linebacker help. Falcons head coach Mike Smith also has history with Durant.

Prediction: Saints on a one-year, $2.75 million contract.

Other surefire free agent defenders: DE/DT Marcus Spears, CB Fabian Washington, LB Leroy Hill, S Abram Elam, DE Tony McDaniel, LB Thomas Howard, DT Kris Jenkins, S Gerald Sensabaugh, CB Chris Carr, DE/DT Anthony Hargrove, S Brodney Pool, NT Pat Williams, LB Kirk Morrison, S Bernard Pollard, CB Drayton Florence, LB Travis LaBoy, S Reed Doughty, DE Andre Carter, LB Takeo Spikes, DE Raheem Brock, DE Dave Ball, DE Shaun Ellis, LB Keith Bulluck, DT Anthony Adams, LB Ernie Sims, S Atari Bigby, DT Tommie Harris, S Darren Sharper.

[SIZE=+1]Three- to Five-Year Restricted Free Agents[/SIZE]

1. Charles Johnson, defensive end

Scouting Report: Johnson went from impressive young sub-package end in '09 to franchise pass rusher in 2010, ranking seventh in the league in sacks despite playing for a 2-14 Panthers team that generated few blitz opportunities. Still just 25 years old, Johnson has played both left and right defensive end, excelling as a rusher and run stopper at each position. Though he lacks ideal height for a pass rusher at 6-foot-2, 275, Johnson is a relentless player who will only get better. He racked up 10 sacks and three forced fumbles off the bench in 2008 and 2009.

Availability: Carolina surprisingly franchise tagged Ryan Kalil instead of Johnson, and the more deserving free agent was slapped with a first- and third-round restricted tender. The tag will likely mean nothing if a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is reached, but the Panthers have no intentions of letting Johnson get away as their best player on defense. Johnson may opt for a relatively short-term contract, setting himself up for another crack at free agency at age 29.

Prediction: Panthers on a four-year, $45 million contract.

2. Johnathan Joseph, cornerback

Scouting Report: If Leon Hall is the Bengals' shutdown corner, Joseph is an ideal aggressive, route-jumping bookend. A press cornerback at 5-foot-11, 192, Joseph has a knack for big plays, picking off 14 passes with three pick-sixes over the past four seasons, despite missing 13 games. Though Joseph has overcome chronic early-career foot injuries and a 2007 marijuana arrest, he went back on the shelf for four games last year with a cracked forearm and high ankle sprain. For all his talent, Joseph is not a "clean" player. He's also coming off a disappointing year.

Availability: The Bengals deemed the $14.5 million cornerback franchise tag too rich for Joseph, giving him a potentially worthless first- and third-round restricted tender instead. As a five-year vet, it's very likely that a new CBA would de-restrict Joseph's free agency. Hall is the Bengals' top corner and should be their priority to re-sign for big money. In the likely event Joseph hits the open market, he'll be the No. 2 free agent corner after Nnamdi Asomugha.

Prediction: Lions on a four-year, $32.5 million contract.



3. Mathias Kiwanuka, defensive end

Scouting Report: A versatile, dynamic pass rusher, Kiwanuka has racked up 23.5 sacks and seven forced fumbles through five seasons despite shuffling between end and outside linebacker. Kiwi is a long-armed, athletic pass rusher at 6-foot-5, 265. In his lone full season as a starter, he notched eight sacks and two forced fumbles at right defensive end. He was headed for a breakout year in 2010 with four sacks through three games before a herniated disc in his neck ended his season. Kiwanuka did not require surgery, and he was medically cleared in February.

Availability: The Giants tendered Kiwi at the second-round level, but he's likely to be an unrestricted free agent with five accrued years. There has been speculation that the Patriots could have interest. Kiwanuka is 28, so he's no longer a spring chicken. Coming off a career-threatening injury, he may have to settle for a one-year "prove-it" deal to rehab his value for 2012.

Prediction: Patriots on a one-year, $4.5 million contract.

4. Ray Edwards, defensive end

Scouting Report: A productive young pass rusher at age 26, Edwards has preyed on single teams playing alongside The Williams Wall and Jared Allen in Minnesota. He has back-to-back eight-plus sack seasons and, according to Pro Football Focus, ranked in the top four in the league in QB pressures in both years. Edwards is listed at 6-foot-5, 268. He's been a left end in the Vikings' Cover 2-style system, which places an emphasis on pass rush from the front four. Edwards is quick off the snap and gets up the field in a hurry.

Availability:</I> The Vikes gave Edwards a first-round tender, but he has five accrued seasons. Rather than extend Edwards' deal, they gave backup Brian Robison a three-year, $14.1 million contract, indicating that Edwards is replaceable. Atlanta has been Edwards' most often rumored destination, and the club is clearly in win-now mode after surrendering much of its 2011 draft and a 2012 first-round pick in the Julio Jones trade. John Abraham is aging, so Edwards could be his eventual replacement with Kroy Biermann rejoining the starting lineup in 2012.

Prediction: Falcons on a four-year, $42.5 million contract.

5. Antonio Cromartie, cornerback

Scouting Report: Cromartie is a long-armed corner with freakish size and speed at 6-foot-2, 210. He ran 4.36 at FSU's 2006 Pro Day, and poses obvious matchup problems for big receivers. Cromartie has picked off 18 passes with two pick-sixes over the past four seasons and flashed shutdown ability in coverage. Lacking a high football IQ, however, Cromartie can be taken off his game when frustrated, and has shown a proneness to penalties. He shies from contact, particularly in run support, and must play in a man-coverage scheme. Cromartie struggles in zone. Opposing QBs completed just 43.9 percent of their passes thrown at Cromartie last season.

Availability: Cromartie has five accrued years, so he'll be an unrestricted free agent once a new CBA is struck. Multiple winter and spring reports indicate that Cromartie is likely to leave New York this offseason, and he signed with mega-agents Tom Condon and Ben Dogra in anticipation of hitting the market. Cromartie just turned 27. Teams in pursuit would be smart to offer shorter-term and/or frontloaded contracts to protect themselves against Cromartie's fragility.

Prediction: Texans on a three-year, $23.5 million contract.

Other three- to five-year restricteds: DT Brandon Mebane, DE Cliff Avril, S Eric Weddle, S Michael Huff, NT Barry Cofield, LB Manny Lawson, CB Brandon Carr, S Dashon Goldson, LB Paul Posluszny, CB Josh Wilson, CB Brent Grimes, LB Clint Session, S Danieal Manning, CB Chris Houston, S Donte Whitner, S Roman Harper, LB Stephen Tulloch, CB Richard Marshall, LB Quincy Black, S Melvin Bullitt, DE Wallace Gilberry, DE Jacob Ford, LB Stewart Bradley, S Dawan Landry, CB Eric Wright, LB James Anderson, LB Stephen Nicholas, DE Jason Hatcher.

[SIZE=+1]Trade Candidates[/SIZE]

1. Albert Haynesworth, defensive tackle - Contract is manageable, conduct isn't.
2. Aaron Ross, cornerback - Became expendable with Prince Amukamara pick.
3. Brodrick Bunkley, defensive tackle - Has lost his starting job to Antonio Dixon.
4. Leodis McKelvin, cornerback - Bills used 34th overall pick on Aaron Williams.
5. Aaron Maybin, linebacker - Might fetch a seventh-round pick at final cut downs.
6. Amobi Okoye, defensive tackle - He doesn't fit the Texans' new 3-4 defense.
7. Derrick Harvey, defensive end - Couldn't beat out Jeremy Mincey, Austen Lane.
8. Greg Toler, cornerback - Rumors he'll be involved in Kevin Kolb-to-Cards deal.
9. Darius Butler, cornerback - The Ras-I Dowling pick put Butler on the bubble.
10. Darcel McBath, safety - Denver drafted two complementary safeties in April.
11. Phillip Merling, defensive end - Expendable with Jared Odrick's healthy return.
12. Tyrell Johnson, safety - Has fallen behind Husain Abdullah, Jamarca Sanford.
13. Jordon Dizon, linebacker - More likely to be released after blowing out knee.
14. Craig Steltz, safety - Steltz is barely even a productive special teams player.
15. Marcus Harrison, defensive tackle - Not a favorite of DL coach Rod Marinelli.

[SIZE=+1]Release Candidates[/SIZE]

1. Aqib Talib, cornerback - Felony gun charge could seal his fate in Tampa Bay.
2. Nick Barnett, linebacker - Due $6.25 million, too much for a projected backup.
3. Nate Clements, cornerback - Due $15 million, but may return at reduced rate.
4. Antwan Odom, defensive end - Cincy insiders would be surprised if he's back.
5. Tony Brown, defensive tackle - Has bad knees and a $4 million base salary.
6. Terence Newman, cornerback - Going on 33 and fell off the cliff last season.
7. Kelly Gregg, nose tackle - Still stuffs the run, but Terrence Cody is the future.
8. Aaron Smith, defensive end - Pricey, and Ziggy Hood ready for full-time role.
9. Domonique Foxworth, cornerback - Coming off torn ACL and due $4.4 million.
10. Madieu Williams, safety - Clearly overpaid, but lockout may save his spot.
11. Alex Brown, defensive end - Cameron Jordan was drafted to replace Brown.
12. Joey Porter, linebacker - No way the Cardinals pay his $5.75 million salary.
13. Brian Dawkins, safety - Offers nothing more than leadership at this stage.
14. Keith Brooking, linebacker - See Dawkins; Sean Lee ready to replace him.
15. Gerald Hayes, linebacker - Hayes has been replaced by Daryl Washington.

HacheMan · Jun 8, 2011

First look at ADP
If the NFL season starts on time, we are three short months away from Week 1. The time to start thinking about player values relative to public perception is now.

The best way to determine what the general opinion of a player is by examining his average draft position (ADP). And thanks to our friends at Fantasyfootballcalculator.com, we have an initial look at an aggregate of 27 fantasy drafts that meet their criteria.

Of course, these ADP stats are somewhat flawed thanks to the lockout. With free agency still pending, hundreds of players will be changing teams before Week 1. Not only will their values/public perception change, but the values/public perception of their new teammates will change as well.

That said, we can still draw conclusions about some of the more stable situations in the league. Here are five players currently overvalued:

1. Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns: ADP 21.1
Believing in the Madden Curse is silly, but putting stock into natural regressions for non-elite players is wise. Hillis burst out of gate last season, averaging 4.78 yards per carry in his first eight games. Perhaps because of his bulldozing style, he wore down and averaged just 3.82 yards per carry in the final eight games.

GM Tom Heckert has already acknowledged that Hillis was overworked last season and new coach Pat Shurmur is on the record saying he wants to implement a two-headed backfield. Montario Hardesty, last year's second-round pick who the Browns remain high on despite an ACL tear, is expected to be 100 percent by Week 1. Hillis simply won't get enough volume to be worth anything near a top-25 selection.

2. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons: ADP 95.6
Now at age 35, Gonzalez is a shell of his former self. He doesn't have the speed to separate and the Falcons know it. T-Gonz set a career low last season in yards per catch and managed just 41 receiving yards per game. Expecting a bounce back in his 15th NFL season is unrealistic.

Gonzalez's decline is one of the reasons the Falcons gave up so much to get Julio Jones at No. 6 overall in the 2011 draft. Jones will serve as the No. 2 option in the passing game, not Gonzalez. Already possessing low upside, Gonzalez should not be counted on as a TE1 this season.

3. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Bucs: ADP 23.9
In seven starts last year, Blount averaged 92.6 rushing yards per game and scored two touchdowns. He combines bulldozing power with surprising elusiveness.

However, there is still doubt that Blount is an elite talent. We know he is inept in the passing game, making him a two-down back at best. And the former undrafted free agent surprisingly struggled in short-yardage last year despite his 250-pound frame. On top of that, the Bucs expressed concern over Blount's ball security at times last year. A second-round pick is reaching here.

4. Marques Colston, WR, Saints: ADP 40.3
Evan Silva has already discussed Colston's injury woes earlier this offseason and these concerns shouldn't be brushed off. One microfracture surgery can ruin a career, and now Colston has had two.

Simply, his ability to separate is in jeopardy. After averaging 16.2 yards per catch in 2008 and 15.3 in 2009, Colston managed a meager 12.2 yards per catch last season. With impressive tight end Jimmy Graham ready to burst onto the red-zone scene, Colston has a big down arrow.

5. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots: ADP 60.9
Green-Ellis is a "closer" kind of back, the kind that racks up yards, carries and touchdowns late in wins. And the Patriots had plenty of those games last season as they went 14-2. But the Pats know that they needed more difference-making talent at the position, so they selected Shane Vereen with the No. 56 overall pick and Steven Ridley with the No. 73 overall pick.

It creates just as much traffic in the backfield as ever and Ridley threatens to steal short-yardage work from Green-Ellis right out of the gate. Expecting anything close to last season's 229 carries is unrealistic.

HacheMan · Jun 21, 2011

Most disappointing fantasy seasons

Brett Favre had a bad fantasy year in 2010. But does he top this list of the worst seasons ever?

Sean McCormick
Football Outsiders

Fantasy drafts are remarkably like the real thing. Every year, a consensus emerges early about who the top prospects are, and every year talking heads race to the airwaves, to the Internet and to newspapers and magazines everywhere to put their personal tweak on the consensus. They move players up a spot or down two spots, but never suggest that any of the top prospects are going to bomb. Ratings are parsed with the famous caveat, "You can't go wrong either way." Then the season starts and some owners watch their first-round picks drag their fantasy teams down to the bottom of the standings.

Not all of these players on this list were first-round picks in everyone's fantasy draft. But each one of them massively underperformed and left owners howling at the television week in and week out. For our list of the top 10 fantasy football disappointments, we stayed away from players who simply had season-ending injuries. Instead, we went looking for players who stayed on the field and still dramatically fell short of their expected performance.

10. 1994, Scott Mitchell

Mitchell was a classic flash-in-the-pan player, a 6-foot-6-inch southpaw from Utah who spent two seasons as Dan Marino's caddie before getting an eight-game audition when Dan the Man went down with a torn Achilles tendon. Mitchell impressed enough to convince Detroit to sign him as a free agent, and with Barry Sanders and Herman Moore already on the roster, it looked like Mitchell was poised to blow up. Instead, he melted down, completing just 48.4 percent of his passes and throwing 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions before injuries sidelined him. Savvy owners who picked up Dave Krieg were thrilled, however, as the veteran stepped in for Mitchell and threw 14 touchdowns to 3 interceptions, while leading Detroit to the playoffs.
<OFFER>9. 2002, Marshall Faulk

It's not often that 1,400 total yards qualifies as a major disappointment, but it is hard to look at Faulk's 2002 season as anything else. That's because Faulk set an almost impossibly high standard during his first three seasons in St. Louis, averaging 1,374 yards rushing, 881 yards receiving and 19 touchdowns a year. There was no reason to expect anything but more of the same in 2002, which made Faulk the obvious No. 1 pick in every fantasy draft in the country. But Faulk stumbled through the season in the same stupor as his teammates. He only rushed for 953 yards, and even that total is a bit deceiving, as 697 of them came during one three-game stretch in the middle of the season. His stat line was filled with some real clunkers against teams like Denver (10 rushes, 19 yards), Tampa Bay (6 rushes, 9 yards), Kansas City (10 rushes, 13 yards) and Seattle (9 rushes, 13 yards).

8. 2010, Brett Favre

Favre miraculously produced the finest statistical season of his Hall of Fame career at the age of 40 as he guided the Vikings to the NFC championship game. Then he played one more year. After skipping out on training camp, Favre was rusty out of the gate, exhibiting little sense of timing with his receivers. Worst of all, he went back to throwing interceptions at a prodigious rate; by Week 4, he'd already thrown seven picks, as many as he'd thrown in all of the 2009 season. While the interceptions kept coming, the touchdowns were nowhere to be found. Favre threw multiple touchdowns in only two games, finished the season with 11 and ended his final season with a shocking minus-134 DYAR. Favre's ankle was never healthy enough to let him avoid the rush, and he took a pounding, until finally Minnesota put an end to the number that meant the most to Favre: his streak of 297 consecutive starts.

7. 2008, Braylon Edwards

2007: The glory days of the new-model Cleveland Browns, when for one shining moment, Derek Anderson was tossing bomb after bomb and Edwards was reeling them in to the tune of 80 receptions for 1,289 yards and a whopping 16 touchdowns. The problem was that much of the duo's production came in a handful of games against some of the league's worst defenses. Owners who were counting on Edwards in 2008 had to factor in a tougher slate of opponents. Would it make a difference? Yes, it would. Edwards wouldn't come close to matching his 2007 numbers, as opposing cornerbacks held him to three or fewer receptions in nine games. Part of Edwards' struggles can be blamed on the terrible quarterback quartet of Derek Anderson 2.0, Brady Quinn, Ken Dorsey and Bruce Gradkowski, but a bigger part of the blame was Edwards' massive case of butterfingers. His completion percentage dipped from 52 percent to 40 percent, and he led the NFL with 16 drops.

6. 1992, Mark Rypien
Rypien was the third, and last, quarterback to win a Super Bowl in Washington under Joe Gibbs. Rypien was the trigger man for a Redskins team that led the league in scoring in 1991, and he capped off a 3,564-yard, 28-TD/11-INT campaign by being named the MVP of Super Bowl XXVI. With the Redskins returning their offensive starters, Rypien looked like a good bet to put up similar numbers in 1992, but it didn't happen. Much of the blame can be ascribed to a combination of injuries and aging all along the offense, but the bottom line was that Rypien was simply nowhere near as prolific with the deep ball, which had been his most potent weapon in 1991. Rypien's yardage totals didn't decline much, but his yards per attempt dropped from 8.5 to 6.9. More importantly for fantasy purposes, he only threw 13 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.

5. 2003, Corey Dillon

From 1997-2002, there were two constants in Cincinnati: The Bengals would be awful, and Dillon would pound out somewhere between 1,100-1,400 yards, griping all the way. Fortunately, fantasy owners didn't need to worry about Dillon complaining to the media, and he was routinely in the top handful of players selected in 2003. But new coach Marvin Lewis wanted to limit Dillon's carries, and with a young Rudi Johnson on the bench, Lewis had a legit alternative. Dillon's attempts dropped from 314 to 138, and his yardage total plummeted from 1,311 to 541. Dillon only cracked the 100-yard mark once on the season, and he reached the end zone a grand total of twice.

4. 2005, Curtis Martin

For each of his first ten straight seasons, Martin seemed to defy all the normal rules that applied to running backs. Despite not being particularly big or fast, he ran for more than 1,000 yards every year, handling a heavy workload without noticeable effect. At age 31, at a time when most running backs are either retired or in the twilight of their career, Martin was the bell cow for coach Herm Edwards, toting the rock 371 times on his way to 1,697 yards and just losing out on the rushing title to Priest Holmes. In 2005, most fantasy owners were more concerned about LaMont Jordan vulturing touchdowns than about Martin hitting the wall. But hit the wall he did, as Martin struggled behind a patchwork offensive line, managing only 735 yards and five touchdowns before a knee injury landed him on injured reserve. His 3.3 average yards per carry was a career low, as were his 24 receptions.

3. 2001, Derrick Alexander

From 1996-99, Derrick Alexander was a remarkably consistent receiver, good for at least 50 catches and about 1,000 yards every year. In 2000, he took the next step, hauling in 78 receptions for 1,391 yards and 10 touchdowns, and establishing himself as a dangerous deep threat who could take advantage whenever the defense got too concerned with Tony Gonzalez. Heading into 2001, Alexander looked like a legitimate No. 1 receiver option for fantasy owners. But a persistent abdominal injury and the loss of Elvis Grbac -- who had a good connection with Alexander dating back to their Michigan days -- brought the curtains down on Alexander's days as an elite receiver. He hauled in a measly 27 receptions for 470 yards, his catch rate dropped from 54 percent to 40 percent and he had a DYAR of just nine (good for 59th in the NFL).

2. 2010, Randy Moss

With the Patriots marching to an unexpected 14-2 record on the strength of the best passing attack in football (New England's Pass DVOA of 72.5 percent was almost 25 percent higher than second-ranked San Diego), Moss owners might be forgiven for wondering what in the world went wrong. Moss began angling for a new contract before the season even started, claiming he didn't feel wanted and that this would be his last year in New England. After only three weeks, Bill Belichick sent Moss packing to Minnesota. Moss' first game back as a Viking was his best of the season, as he caught four passes for 81 yards and one score. After that it was all downhill, culminating in a one reception-for-eight yards performance against New England. At the end of the game, Moss sent kisses through the media to his recent team, which was more than embattled Vikings head coach Brad Childress could stand. Moss got his walking papers again, and might have been finished for the season had the Titans not had a starting job open up due to an injury to Kenny Britt. Moss' season totals in Tennessee (six receptions, 80 yards, no touchdowns) would have been a ho-hum single-game performance in 2009. In 2010, his owners would have jumped for joy.

1. 2006, Shaun Alexander

Alexander went into 2006 as the reigning MVP, a gliding runner on a powerhouse offense who followed his blocks as well as any back in football. The consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy, Alexander was a model of consistency, having churned out more than 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns every year since 2001, and his 2005 numbers were simply eye-popping: 1,880 yards and 27 touchdowns, while averaging five yards per carry for the season. Alexander turned his season into a spot on the cover of "Madden '07" and a shiny new $62 million contract. There was one other number that should have set off alarm bells, though: Alexander carried the ball 370 times during the regular season, and another 60 times during Seattle's Super Bowl run. Not every back with a high usage rate falls apart the following season, but Alexander certainly did. He broke his foot in a Week 3 game against the Giants, an injury that cost him six games, and wasn't fully healed when he returned. He only topped 100 yards twice after having hit the century mark 11 times in 2005. The massive decline was no fluke -- Alexander was even worse in 2007, to the point that the Seahawks bit the bullet and released him.