Fading the Streak

[SSI]

Mistemj, i was playing that stretch and after game 9......... which was 4 games into the chase or thereabouts, covers shows a Push which was actually a win...........

the total set at 9.5 all day and just before game time went to 9.....

i was actually playing this, with my local and distinctly remember this, i got the win Under 9.5 and not the Push to continue this streak..

btw, its a 6 game chase, not an endless one....... so an 11 game streak will hurt just as bad as a 100 game streak..

SSI

 

[SpeedKills+]

this NHL season there would've been no loses but the longer streaks where ac cured during the first 2 months. I'm going to look into past seasons after work and prob stop playing this after my 3 games tonight.

 

[Mistermj]

Mistemj, i was playing that stretch and after game 9......... which was 4 games into the chase or thereabouts, covers shows a Push which was actually a win...........

the total set at 9.5 all day and just before game time went to 9.....

i was actually playing this, with my local and distinctly remember this, i got the win Under 9.5 and not the Push to continue this streak..

btw, its a 6 game chase, not an endless one....... so an 11 game streak will hurt just as bad as a 100 game streak..

SSI

I'm not trying to dog on you...so don't dog on me for doing exactly what you have instructed others to do...go to Covers and check it out for yourselves...closing lines at Covers are used for record keeping.

It's a loss for the system by your own definition...and half point variables are common enough from book to book for any game at any time...so there may in fact be more real life losses that don't show up because of using closing lines for backtesting.

Bottom line...this is not a system that can win over time...you can't beat the laws of math and binomial distribution. There is nothing preventing any team from having a run of more than 11 overs or unders at any time...it will happen...and it will sometimes happen more than once in a season.

You should know better...it pisses me off to see you wasting your wealth of handicapping talent and energy on this stuff.

Again...I'm not dogging on you...but you haven't done your homework this time...c'mon...wake up and quit chasing fools gold.

 

[SSI]

i knew that i would find it..

ottawa played 11 straight unders from (oct 10) unit (nov 27) of this season, the loss on this would have been about 77 units, laying (-1.10) juice..

sorry..

SSI

 

[SSI]

here is the update for tuesday march 10

O/U Fade: 55-0 (+55.00 units) (1 pending)
ATS Fade: 22-0 (+22.00 units) (0 pending)

no plays for tuesday..

we will be playing Toronto Under in game 2 of their progression, in their next game.

SSI

 

[SSI]

MisterMJ: appreciate your opinion...

i do tell others to back check at covers, the difference is, that i along with several others were playing this during that Florida game...

i really dont care, if anyone plays this or not...

i play it, ill make money with it, in baseball and the nba.....

good enough for me...


carry on men.

SSI

 

[bogdog]

So the Reds had a streak of 11 Over from 8/12/07 - 8/21/07, starting at Game 6 - 11 would that be a loss right?
http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/pastresults/2007/team2961.html

 

[SSI]

yes, that would be a loss..... i remember that streak..

i didnt say it would never happen.... i simply said its profitable..

SSI

 

[bogdog]

yes, that would be a loss..... i remember that streak..

i didnt say it would never happen.... i simply said its profitable..

SSI

1 system loss will cost you 85 units with juice. I like these systems, I just want to see the data over a 5 year span.

GL

 

[SSI]

bog, this will vary, as to where you play....

SSI

 

[SSI]

update for wed march 11

o/u fade: 55-0 (+55.00 units) (1 pending)

wednesdays play

toronto Under (game 2 of progression)

ats fade: 22-0 (+22.00 units) (0 pending)

no play for wednesday

SSI

 

[SSI]

record is still the same...

play for friday night

Toronto Under (game 3 of progression)


closing line at covers will be used for record keeping, i bet as late as possible on these..

SSI

 

[bogdog]

record is still the same...

play for friday night

Toronto Under (game 3 of progression)


closing line at covers will be used for record keeping, i bet as late as possible on these..

SSI

In my experience the line tends to drop before tip. The TOR line started at 194.5 most books are at 193. If you wait until game time I could be down to 192.5 or worse.

GL I am locked in at 194

 

[nervousTic]

The line can go either way. I'd recommend checking the opening and monitoring the trend before you decide to jump in early, but I certainly don't agree with always betting late (or early).

http://www.sbrlines.com/LinesWebsite/Lines.aspx?l=3#/odds/nba/whole_game/total.html

 

[Sea-Urchin]

Gl ssi.

 

[SSI]

193.5

boys dont worry, im on such a roll these days... i just wish that (well never mind)...


good luck to u..

SSI

 

[walnut5225]

i love this system .... thanks for bringing attention to it SSI

btw --- enjoy the new tv ... i was already on Miss St when i discovered your ncaa thread -- nicely done!

 

[SSI]

walnut, u name it, sports or trading... ill help you out...

these are very good days for me..

when your ready to trade, i want to show you something that you can make some money with.... it could be all you need to know.....

baseball as well as the nba and nhl playoffs will be good (i think)...

SSI

 

[walnut5225]

oh no --- overtime ....

no big deal --- if not tonite next time!

 

[walnut5225]

hey thanks SSI

you speak ---- i listen!

as i've said before, i'm trying to learn the right way & i will be taking you up on the offer.